After two exciting rounds of encounters, your correspondent is feeling good with five out of six results correctly predicted – an 83.3% accuracy rate! As we enter the halfway stage of the 2017 Six Nations – it's a case of who has midpoint momentum which will see them through to the final finish line.
England look like the team with the most momentum after a photo finish final try in a tense and exciting encounter in Cardiff.
Wales will be licking their wounds and wondering how but for a moment of sheer madness they threw away victory.
Ireland bounced back with a demolition of Italy in Rome and France showed that their impressive performance at Twickenham was not just a one off by outmuscling a counter-attacking Scottish team in Paris. This weekend has at least two out of three tight tough encounters to look forward to.
SCOTLAND v WALES
First up on Saturday afternoon is an intriguing encounter between the Celtic nations at Murrayfield. Scotland will be in confident mood after two good opening performances whilst Wales will want to build on their strong showing against England in what should be a close and exciting match north of the border.
Scotland continued their momentum with a strong showing in Paris. They really look like the best counter attacking side in the championship and spill the ball and go to sleep at your peril as France found in conceding an early try where Stuart Hogg was once again the scorer. Vern Cotter will be very optimistic of Scotland beating Wales for the first time in a decade when the two teams roll on the Murrayfield turf for the 2:25pm kick off.
It’s an unusual scenario for Scotland to be going into this game as marginal favourites given the home advantage. Whilst they currently have a high degree of confidence now, and have recently found a way of winning and closing out games, they’ve always been a strong side at home. But winning on the road remains a challenge for them and the French game was theirs for the taking.
At the centre of this return to form in Scottish rugby is the investment made into the club structure by the Scottish Rugby Union. Glasgow Warriors have been growing as a force over the past three seasons and this season they are absolutely bullying sides in the European tournaments. Vern Cotter’s ability to pick tried and tested club units, all of whom have pre-existing understanding of each other, is key to them continuing to build momentum at international level.
Scotland are a tight-knit squad who have a clearly defined rucking and driving game, all orchestrated by the much-improved Finn Russell at fly-half. They show tremendous team spirit and their ability to counter attack from low possession is unparalleled in the current world game. They’ve a lot of options in the back five of the scrum, although the loss of Josh Strauss will rob them of one of their main ball carriers.
Greg Laidlaw’s absence is a major issue for Cotter and he will be sorely missed especially given his ability to keep the scoreboard ticking over and his accuracy with the boot has been key to Scottish hopes in all their recent matches.
Scotland coach Vern Cotter revealed five changes from the side who lost in France and flanker John Barclay will captain Scotland for the first time in seven years in their Six Nations clash with Wales at Murrayfield on Saturday, taking over from Laidlaw. Thirty-year-old Barclay will captain the side for just the second time, having previously led Scotland against New Zealand in 2010.
The three other changes come in the pack as Gordon Reid makes his first start of the Championship at loose head replacing Allan Dell to pack down in an all Glasgow Warriors front row alongside Fraser Brown and Zander Fagerson.
John Barclay is joined in the back row by the recalled John Hardie and Ryan Wilson.
Hardie returns from injury to take over the open side flanker duties meaning Hamish Watson slides to the bench while Wilson returns from an elbow infection to take over from the also-injured Josh Strauss, while injured wing Sean Maitland is replaced by Tim Visser.
Ali Price looks likely to make a first international start as replacement at halfback for Laidlaw, who will miss the rest of the tournament with an ankle ligament injury.
Wales have not lost in the fixture since seven Chris Paterson penalties condemned them to a 21-9 defeat in 2007, a run which has included four Murrayfield victories on the bounce.
For Wales, this fixture is a critical bump in the road. They really need to be ruthless and defend strongly to stop Scotland from building their spoiling, counter attacking game.
I don’t buy the notion that England were the equal of Wales in Cardiff. In my eyes, England were second in virtually every department bar the set-piece for almost 75 minutes of the match and quite frankly Wales should have closed that game out long before the last quarter. They were very impressive in all departments for very long periods against England but for a side that’s shown such a simple game plan and execution over the years, Wales’ thinking and decision making under pressure from both players and coaches, was simply diabolical in that match and cost them the game. England didn’t win it, Wales lost it through stupidity.
Interim Welsh Head Coach Robert Howley will be delighted to have George North back as the giant Northampton wing has recovered from a leg injury that side-lined him for Wales' 21-16 loss at Cardiff.
North replaces the ailing Alex Cuthbert who has been the subject of much dialogue and social media abuse in Wales and it is the only change following the England defeat.
The selection of Cuthbert has been simple animal cruelty. He has shown such poor form over that past 12 months that he really shouldn’t have ever been put in that position. The vitriol he has received in many quarters however is simply unacceptable. No one doubts his commitment and effort but he should never have been placed in that position. It is a damning indictment of Wales’ ineffective and conservative selection policies that they keep resorting to tried and trusted players – regardless of form – rather than bringing on the next generation. This is a total contrast to the belief Eddie Jones has shown in young players like Itoje and Daly who re-paid his faith many fold over the past 12 months.
Howley has not surprisingly opted to retain the back row of Sam Warburton, Justin Tipuric and Ross Moriarty who really took the game to England’s acknowledged pack, with 63 times-capped number eight Taulupe Faletau again on the bench.
Moriarty was arguably Wales' outstanding performer against England, while flankers Sam Warburton and Justin Tipuric have also been back in prime form, so it is no surprise that Howley has gone for the same again. There was considerable controversy when Moriarty was substituted against the Rose and there is no doubt the English forwards were glad to see the back of him given his ball carrying and bone crunching defence.
Faletau, as a result of two knee injuries, has made only a couple of 80-minute appearances for his club this term, yet he will potentially offer a considerable impact off the bench at Murrayfield, if required.
There is one other switch among the replacements, with Faletau's Bath colleague Luke Charteris involved for the first time in Wales' current Six Nations campaign. He returns from an injury to a fractured hand, and has regained full fitness and takes over as second-row cover from Newport Gwent Dragons lock Cory Hill.
Several of the Welsh team had their best ever games in the red jersey against England. Ken Owens and Jake Ball in particular were a real nuisance to England and the starting props are also rightly retained with Rob Evans and Tomas Francis retaining their places. After Scotland’s scrummaging problems against France, Wales will look to their front row to rule the set-piece roost.
There was a lot of talk of perhaps bringing young Scarlets flyer Steff Evans onto the bench in place of Jamie Roberts but Howley has gone with experience and stayed loyal to the iron man, squared jawed, granite-hewn centre as his threequarter cover.
In my view, Howley has called it right. He will certainly be looking for forward domination in the scrums where Scotland look vulnerable and if Shaun Edwards has done his defensive homework then Wales will prove a real handful for Scotland to deal with if they want the victory.
Wales need to keep to their game plan, avoid giving away too many kickable penalties and bully Scotland at the set piece. Their ability to limit Stuart Hogg running from depth will be key and if Wales keep doing aimless long clearance kicks then they could be in trouble.
Winning at Murrayfield has become a habit for Wales and I feel they will have just too much for Scotland. A tight game with one score between the teams
Scotland 20 Wales 24
IRELAND v FRANCE
This is another game where hopefully we will see some more fireworks and running rugby as Guy Noves takes his rapidly improving French side to Dublin to take on Ireland. The Irish really do have a poor record against France and this will be a real tester for both teams as they seek to continue their championship challenges. In their last three encounters in the Championship, there's only been one score in it, they had two draws prior to that.
Ireland rebounded in a strong way in Rome after their catastrophic failure in Edinburgh in week 1. Jonny Sexton has recovered from a calf strain and is one of three changes that Joe Schmidt has made from the side that defeated Italy last time out, with captain Rory Best and Jack McGrath coming into the front row.
Sexton has been out of action for five weeks and will feature in his first international outing since the Autumn Series defeat to New Zealand last November. Given his talismanic status with Schmidt and Ireland – he was always going to be recalled to the starting line-up. Ulster’s Paddy Jackson, who has deputised admirably, kicked nine from nine against Italy and was a try-scorer in the opening round defeat to Scotland, has to make do with a place on the bench. You have to feel for Jackson who really has not put a foot wrong in the last few games and gets side-lined for someone who has not had a game in over 5 weeks.
Rory Best’s run of 51 consecutive Six Nations matches came to an end in Rome when he was ruled out with a stomach bug and the Ulster hooker replaces debutant Niall Scannell. The Munster man is on the bench with James Tracey missing out on the match day 23.
Jack McGrath is recalled at prop to win his 39th cap after losing out to Cian Healy against Italy and there are further changes on the bench with hat-trick hero Craig Gilroy losing out to provincial team-mate Andrew Trimble who also came through training unscathed.
Ulster's Andrew Trimble could make his first appearance of the tournament after recovering from a groin problem to earn a spot as a replacement. I am delighted to see him back in the fold and except he will be hungry for action when he undoubtedly makes a 2nd half appearance.
Sexton is the only change to the starting Irish back division, with Conor Murray starting at No 9, Robbie Henshaw and Garry Ringrose linking up in the centres, and Rob Kearney making a Lazarus-like recovery to take the No 15 shirt.
Fit again Peter O’Mahony replaces the injured Josh van der Flier, while Iain Henderson is selected ahead of Ultan Dillane who failed to make the squad earlier this week.
For France, their hard-earned win over Scotland will give them a significant confidence boost for the clash at the Aviva Stadium. France downed Ireland in Paris last year but had since slipped to four defeats in a row in this famous old Championship until they overcame Scotland last time out.
Guy Noves has made three changes in personnel for Saturday’s clash with Ireland, with Yoann Huget, Bernard Le Roux and Rabah Slimani all coming into the starting XV.
In the forwards Slimani's fine form off the bench in the first two rounds - he scored a try against England in round one - earns him the starting tighthead job with the giant Uini Atonio dropping to the bench.
With Loann Goujon injured, Noves has been forced into a back row re-shuffle where Le Roux has beaten Charles Ollivon for the blindside flanker berth with the Toulon flanker added to the bench.
Meanwhile in the backs Yoann Huget is rewarded for his solid form coming in on the right wing as Fijian flyer Virimi Vakatawa is ruled out with injury. On the bench loosehead Eddy Ben Arous returns for Noves' side while centre Henry Chavancy is in line for his debut and there is also space for Djibril Camara as back three cover - his first inclusion in the France match day 23 in this year's Championship.
The backbone of that side is retained here, so Scott Spedding is again at full-back alongside his Clermont club mate Noa Nakaitaci on the left wing with Huget on the right.
Remi Lamerat and Gael Fickou are paired in midfield while Camille Lopez and Baptiste Serin remain the half-back pairing. Cyril Baille keeps the starting loosehead and is joined by skipper Guilhem Guirado and Slimani in the front row. Sebastian Vahaamahina and Yoann Maestri remain the locks while Le Roux accompanies Kevin Gourdon and Louis Picamoles in the back row.
Ireland have built their national success around taking club units to their national team for a number of years, using their excellent youth structure to create understanding and the provincial teams to build upon that. France, under Guy Noves are trying to do exactly the same model and you can see Noves trying to build that understanding with the La Rochelle back-rowers and the Clermont midfield.
Critically, France have developed a much more consistent game plan with much less of the “high and low” moments of concentration and focus during a match which has limited their progress for many years and they have also added a new-found skill of continuity of pressure. Occasional flashes of brilliance doesn’t win many games if there’s no continuity of pressure. A lot of that progress is down to the linking of the excellent flanker Kevin Gourdon at openside, and the holes that Louis Picamoles creates with his massive carries.
The back-row battle will be absolutely key to winning this titanic struggle in Dublin. Ireland have great balance with CJ Stander on the blindside combining with we all know what Jamie Heaslip brings with skill and intellect, and on the open side, Sean O’Brien is one of the best over-the-ball men in the game, an utter clamp of a man at the ruck.
It’s a real tough game to call and there’s great balance and match ups everywhere; Remi Lamerat versus Robbie Henshaw is a great example of two power centres that will go at each other all day. Baptiste Serin has continued to impress and will be a great counter to Conor Murray.
This match will be about which side wins in the back-row defence and carry. It’s a mouthwatering match up and home advantage should see Ireland through. Just.
Ireland 23 France 18
ENGLAND v ITALY
England return to HQ as the only unbeaten side and look odds on to continue their championship chase with a big bonus point victory over an Italian side who look short on confidence and any sort of form. England are showing that level of arrogance which all sporting greats have – a bit like being 1-0 against Man United at Old Trafford with 5 mins to go and knowing you will lose 2-1. They show such confidence in every match right now and seem to have incredible self-belief that they will triumph in every match and they also know how to win when not playing particularly well as shown in their last two matches.
As publishing deadlines approach and your correspondent packs up for a weekend in Scotland; the England team announcement hasn’t been made although there are not too many changes expected. Mako Vunipola has returned from his brief injury and looks likely to have a place in the weekend 23 potentially starting the match. He is one of just two loose head props in the England squad, so will almost certainly feature alongside Joe Marler - who has started the first two games.
England haven’t quite fired in the pack and Vunipola’s strength and power will be a welcome return to the pack. I find it strange not to see James Haskell start a game as yet and Jack Clifford was pretty anonymous against Wales – so I feel Jones may shake things up in a back-row mix which really hasn't fired in either of the opening salvos.
Bath’s Anthony Watson could also come back into the match day mix after recovering from a hamstring injury and looks likely to take a wing position with Elliot Daly likely to move to centre as Jonathan Joseph has been sent back to his club for this weekend.
Eddie Jones will want to keep the England juggernaut moving forwards and will want to see his team assert their dominance and go for the throat. I think we’ll see some changes for this game; again, back row balance is key to winning teams and frankly Nathan Hughes has been very disappointing in the white shirt and has totally failed to impose himself in the way he does in the Aviva Championship for Wasps.
England have not looked solid in their back row in either match so far but that's not surprising given the world class back row talent in both Welsh and French sides. Jack Clifford was a little lightweight in a game of huge collisions and his place is certainly under threat. Rumours abound that Northampton Saints’ Teimana Harrison has trained at No.8 this week with the England squad and Jones may take a chance and give him a start there.
In the backs, many are calling for Danny Care to be recalled at scrum half and there is a strong case to try Ben Te’o in the starting XV, potentially moving Owen Farrell to ten. I also believe Jamie George has earned the right to start and that might mean Owen skippering and running the show at fly-half.
Former Azzurri coach Nick Mallet was vocal in the press this week about the Italian coaching role being one of the toughest in world rugby. Regular readers will know I am not an enthusiast for Italy in the Six Nations and I argue strongly against the consensus that Italy are getting stronger every season because they’re not!
Another wooden spoon season of serious hidings and calls for a play-off against European Champions Georgia will be ringing louder and louder. Bluntly, with Georgia ahead of Italy in the world rankings, there’s no reason why the Six Nations should not adopt promotion and relegation moving forward. It’s criminal that the Georgians have no way of progressing their rugby despite earning that right.
It would also be a much-needed wake up call for Italy, making them fight for the right to be in the top tier rather than hanging on in quiet desperation in the hope they may get one or two decent results. Unfortunately, unless Italy changes its club game structure it’s hard to them make real progress. The two professional clubs – Treviso and Zebre have not had a great experience in the Guinness Pro 12 and the gap in class between the two pro franchises and the local Italian championship is a real gulf and not encouraging for bringing a sufficient quantity of quality players through to international level.
Conor O'Shea has had a pretty torrid time in the opening two matches with the Italians conceding 96 points, 12 tries and a negative 79 points difference so far. He has made four changes to his match day XV that lost to Ireland in Rome last time out, with Tommaso Allan and Michele Campagnaro recalled to face England in Sunday's encounter.
Allan comes in for Carlo Canna at Outside Half, earning his first start for the Azzurri since June 2016, while Campagnaro replaces Tommaso Benvenuti in midfield.
The recall of Exeter Chiefs centre Campagnaro has been coming for some time and frankly I am very surprised that he hasn’t featured so far in the competition. He brings a much harder edge to the Italian threequarters and he will be one to fear as he is well known to the England backs after his storming performances in the Aviva championship.
There is a third change in the backline where Giulio Bisegni returns on the right wing in place of Angelo Esposito, reclaiming the spot he had occupied in round one against Wales.
Esposito misses out altogether on the matchday squad.
O'Shea’s final change comes in the back row where Abraham Steyn replaces Maxime Mbanda, and he will line up alongside with Simone Favaro and Sergio Parisse.
Mbanda drops down to the bench where there are two further changes, with both props being switched. Michele Rizzo replaced the injured Dario Chistolini earlier in the week and will provide loose head cover, while Zebre tight head Pietro Ceccarelli also included.
It’s hard to see any real improvement likely at Twickenham for Italy and another cricket score defeat the likely outcome for the Azzurri. Expect to see England dominating and a sure bonus point. England will win, but it’s the style of performance with which they’ll be measured. Eddie Jones has set some high standards for his England and anything but a crushing win will be unacceptable for this excellent side.
England 76 Italy 6
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