Monday, March 21, 2022

Guinness Six Nations 2022 - Final Thoughts on a. Great Championship!

The 2022 Guinness Six Nations proved a cracker! Rugby Raconteur hit usual heights with 13/15 match results correctly predicted and 92% accuracy on the match points spread! 

 

Let’s look back on the tournament with some final thoughts:

 

TWO TRIBES

 

France and Ireland have a clear distance over the chasing pack in Europe. France’s first title since 2010, secured by clinching the Grand Slam, was met with a wave of emotion at the Stade de France, but the joy should also reverberate across the game. For so long a faded power, Saturday’s jittery victory over England completed a transformation that restores one of the sport’s most admired rugby nations to the pinnacle. Directed by their outstanding half-backs Antoine Dupont and Romain Ntamack, they will enter next year’s home World Cup from a position of strength.

 

A superb Grand Slam capped 3 years of belief and development in their young team. The bold experiment to push forward the  majority of the 2028 U20 Championship winning side to eb the new France has proved an unqualified success. 

 

In Antoine Dupont, France has the world’s best player. With Shaun Edwards masterminding the defence and installing a new discipline – France have become the complete package. They were deserved Grand Slam winner playing champagne rugby when they could cut loose but digging deep and grinding it out when it matters. I for one loved it and I hope they go on to with the 2023 World Cup!

 

For Ireland, slow and steady progress. A great Autumn was followed up with a home destructions over Wales and Scotland, giving France their toughest game in Paris; and breaking down fortress Twickenham to beat England.

 

Joey Carbery came of age giving Ireland belief that there is a world after Johnny Sexton. Add to that an aggressive pack of  ball paying forwards and clever attack patterns and Ireland are in the best shape they could be 1 year out from that World Cup. 


Andy Farrell and Mike Catt can take real pride for rebuilding their careers after being discarded by England. There is a real irony that Ireland’s success is at England’s expense with the IRFU investing heavily in its development structure whilst Wales invested in a hotel. Bravo Ireland and I look forward to further progress next season.

 

FOR HEAVENS SAKE GO. GO NOW!

Not one but two coaches need immediate dismissal.

 

Eddie Jones has achieved little over the past two seasons and the RFU’s embarrassing statement “to fully support” him and insisted the coach "is building a new England team against a clear strategy", adding the governing body is "encouraged by solid progress" is a total joke.

 

Progress, according to the Oxford English dictionary, is “forward or onward movement towards a destination,” but in a sporting context it is really difficult to come up with a more appropriate means to measure this than results.

 

It is an extraordinary show of faith in light of England’s recent Six Nations results, with three defeats registered in three of the last five tournaments. Strip Italy out of the equation and only eight of the last 20 games have been won. 

 

Jones’ claims of a wider context suggest that moving from being 2019 Six Nations winners with 18 points to finishing fifth then third in 2020 and 21, with ten points, is unimportant. Similarly, although England have gone from scoring 14 tries in 2020 to 12 last year then a paltry eight in 2022 – five of which came against Italy – in his eyes the team is apparently making progress.

 

While France prosper, England are flailing. Their performance in Paris typified what they have become – spirited and resilient, but lacking in any real potency. All of their resolve was on display in a heartening second half, but as an attacking force they ignite only sporadically. France and Ireland are light years ahead in this department and the lack of sustained cutting edge is a real area of concern for Eddie Jones, whose side have gone backwards since a successful autumn. 

 

Eddie Jones’ arrival as England head coach in 2016 coincided with the peak years of a golden generation on the rise at Saracens.

 

For better or worse, the financial engineering built a superpower of a club of which provided Jones’ side with the backbone of his England side. He had a ready-made champion forward pack to hit the ground running when he started his tenure.

 

Mako Vunipola, Jamie George, Maro Itoje, Billy Vunipola, George Kruis, Owen Farrell all entered their peak years in 2016, and Saracens were already at the top of the domestic scene.

They had claimed the Premiership title in May 2015, less than six months before England’s World Cup flame-out in September.

 

Jones joined the England’s set up and built his core side around Saracens. The net result was that outstanding win in 2019 World Cup Semi Final over New Zealand. 

 

Since then the world’s best-funded rugby coach – who will have held the position longer than any of his predecessors should he survive to the end of next year’s World Cup – is not viewing results or try-scoring stats with any sense of alarm, what are those areas in which he sees progress?

 

Time for England to pick up the phone and call Warren Gatland. Jones’ days are numbered.

 

Ditto Wayne Pivac.

 

The Pivacaust continues with an appalling Six Nations for Wales. The sheer arrogance of making seven changes before facing Italy showed huge disrespect and resulted in the worst display I have seen from Wales in a long while.

 

The Worst Run Union have shown an appalling disregard for the future of the game in Wales. There’s no denying Welsh rugby is in serious rtouble. From pro game down to grassroots. Wales’ success has papered over the cracks for years and the decision to starve the Regions of money during the pandemic and invest in. ahoytel rather than its player development is a clear sign that they are ditrectionless.

 

In many ways Wayne Pivac is the perfect coach for the WRU because he shows the same fragrant disregard for the supporters and making statements that the Welsh public “If we go to the World Cup and get to the quarter-final, and onto the semi-final, everyone will be very happy” show he is totally out of touch.

 

He must be dismissed immediately and Wales must move to separate management of the professional and community games. The Welsh U20 team have been poor for at least 5 years that really comes down to a lack of investment and vision. 

 

Will either event happen? I’m not holding my breath but the future of Welsh rugby right now looks bleak with a return to the dark days of 2003 to 2007 highly probable.

 

LUCKY 37

For Italy, the win in Cardiff ended a 36 game losing streak and gave the Italians their first away win in the Six Nations since 2015. They thoroughly deserved it. 

 

The Azzurri were immense as they prevailed 22-21 in Cardiff with electric full-back Ange Capuozzo producing the moment of the tournament with the exhilarating run that set-up the match winning converted try. All of Europe will be willing them to build on a breakthrough moment.

 

Their place had been questioned at length with many observers calling from promotion and relegation in the tournament and insisting Georgia would be more competitive than the Azzurri.

 

Kieran Crowley has coached Benetton to play like that in last few years so no surprise he is doing the same with the National team.

 

In Toulouse-bound Ange Capuozzo, they have a world class talent developing. Add to that a team which has progressed from their successful U20 program and Italy’s win will kill off all South African claims to join the Six Nations.

 

Can they kick on from here? You’d like to hope so but when you analyse the data they probably won’t. Sorry to burst the success balloon but Italy were woeful in four of the five matches in this championship and despite being by far the better team in Cardiff, that was largely down to Wales implosion rather than Italy suddenly rising to any great heights.

 

Enjoy the moment, you deserved it but in 12 month’s time we will be looking at another 5 Italian defeats. Another false dawn.

 

FLATTERED TO DECEIVE


Possibly the most unexpected aspect of the Six Nations has been the total collapse of Scotland, whose pre-tournament confidence was enhanced by an opening-day victory overEngland, before they unravelled in spectacular fashion. Apart from a hollow win against Italy, they failed to make any further impact as they became engulfed by a disciplinary storm in the final week. For a group of senior players, including captain Stuart Hogg and fly-half Finn Russell, to go out drinking in defiance of team rules is a lamentable lapse in judgement that hints at an unhappy camp. 

The drama and joy of that see-sawing contest with England was only six weeks ago, but it feels like six months. The positivity has long since been leeched away. Scotland were dogged and ruthless that afternoon without reaching the levels they’d proven themselves capable of in 2021. After all they’d achieved last year, they were being cautiously talked about as title contenders. That is a laughable notion now.

It is as if this team has discarded all of the things that propelled them to seismic wins in 2020 and 2021. Scotland built those solid, three-win championships on the foundation of brutal defence, breakdown snarl and stringent discipline. They played smart rugby to beat France and England twice, to win a pig of a game in Wales for the first time in forever. They weaved some lovely attacking phase play, but tempered it with new-found belligerence and pragmatism. Scour the carcass of the recently deceased campaign, and your eyes pop at the extent of the deterioration.

Upon Steve Tandy’s arrival two years ago, Scotland reinvented themselves as a team that loved defending. They looked meaner and more organised. They conceded the fewest tries and points that season, the joint-fewest tries and second-fewest points the next. That stubbornness has deserted them. Scotland shipped as many tries – 15 – this year as they did in the previous two combined.

They had four put on them in Ireland, three in Rome and lost six at home to France. Nobody had scored six at Murrayfield in a championship match since Wales in 2005. Scotland’s willingness to trundle straight into the teeth of Shaun Edwards’ blitz that day was astonishingly ill-conceived.


They conceded 61 penalties in all, trumping their previous two tallies of 55 and 45. An average of 12 per game, and an ugly 15 conceded at the Aviva. 

What struck you most about the slew of infringements was how thunderously dull so many of them were. When Hogg blew that glorious, cringe-so-hard-at-it-you’ll-pull-six-facial-muscles opportunity in Dublin, Ireland still had to throw in to a line-out five metres from their own line. A minute later, they had won back-to-back penalties, gobbled up a swathe of easy territory and still had possession. They did not have to work hard for their metres.


The upshot? Another round of uncomfortable questions. Townsend has come back from adversity before, when calls for his head grew after the pathetic 2019 World Cup. He brought in shrewd assistants and ceded more control to them. He abandoned his blueprint to play the fastest rugby in the world. He mended fences with Russell. He reinvigorated and refreshed a group haunted by the horrors of Japan.


Still, problems dog him – mistakes, discipline, and a chronic failure to back up big results. Consistently winning has never been easy for Scotland to achieve, but on Townsend’s watch, following this team is like spending the day at Alton Towers. The Calcutta Cup feelgood was obliterated in seven days by the pallor of Scotland’s performance in Cardiff. That trend shows no sign of abating.


Part of the anguish is that more is expected of Scotland these days. This is comfortably the best pool of players the country has known in the professional era. The great worry is that they have struck a ceiling, that while they can produce whopping victories in isolation, they just don’t quite have it within themselves to grind out win after win, week after week.

 

So much for it being Scotland’s year – again.

TEAM OF THE TOURNAMENT

 

Back Three:


ANGE CAPUOZZO (Italy), JAMES LOWES (Ireland) GABIN VILLIERE (France)

 

Centres:


GAEL FICKOU & JONATHAN DANTY (FRANCE)

 

Half Backs:

 

MARCUS SMITH (ENGLAND) ANTOINE DUPONT (FRANCE)

 

Front Row:

 

ELLIS GENGE (England) JULIAN MARCHAND (France) TADHE FURLONG (IRELAND)

 

Second Row:

 

CAMERON WOKI (France) PAUL WILLEMSE (France)

 

Back Row:

 

RORY DARGE (Scotland) GREGORY ALDITT (France) CAELAN DORIS (Ireland)

 

Bench:

 

Hugo Keenan (Ireland)

Johnny Sexton (Ireland)

Harry Randall (England)

Will Rowlands (Wales)

Jamie George (England)

Cyril Baille (France)

Andrew Porter (Ireland)

Maro Itoje (England)

 

 



Friday, March 18, 2022

Guinness Six Nations 2022 Round 5 - Super Saturday - French flair or will Irish eyes be smiling?

 


Final round of matches in the 2022 Guinness Six Nations and your correspondent is more smug than usual. 11 correct predictions in 12 matches and the prospect of 3 home wins to finish. Round 4 had its controversies’ but it was another great advert for the tournament leading up to a mouth-watering final game on Super Saturday in Paris.  

 

Super Saturday, the day when all three fixtures are played one after another, is one of the highlights of the sporting year, let alone just the rugby calendar.

 

Let’s look at how the final games will play out.

 

Wales v Italy

 

First game up sees the Azzuri make the journey to Cardiff to face an improving Dan Biggar inspired Wales. Wales had their moments in the Friday night match against France but ultimately had their attack blunted against the well drilled Shaun Edwards coached French defence. It’s been a disappointing championship for Wales and yet they gave France, the likely champions, their most difficult match.

 

Wales’ former defence coach is a serial winner, whether as a rugby league playing great or in accomplished track-suited roles with Wasps, Wales, and France. Edwards was part of Warren Gatland’s Wales coaching team between 2008 and 2019, a period that delivered four Six Nations titles, three Grand Slams and a World Cup semi-final appearance. He left to join the France set-up more than two years ago, and he has transformed Les Bleus’ defensive structure and attitude. The Wales players know exactly what they are up against.

 

Wales fought hard in a loss to Grand Slam chasing France, in which captain Dan Biggar felt the better side lost. Similarly, Italy put in by far their best performance of the Championship in a 33-22 loss to Scotland. Nevertheless, the Azzurri have now lost 36 matches in a row in the Six Nations, and it does not look like they will arrest that slump soon.

 

Just a year after Wales went for a Grand Slam in Paris in the final match, there is an inevitable sense of anti-climax as the defending champions kick off Super Saturday against Italy with little at stake. Their aim will be to post a bonus-point win to climb to third and then sit back to see if Scotland and/or England can dislodge them.

 

Italy will yearn for something to cling to. They were very good at times against Scotland but still finished empty-handed. They’re conceding 40 points a game in this championship compared to 48 last year, so there is progress. They would like a try or two as well – their 2022 haul of four is their joint fewest apart from 2004 and 2009, when they scored just two.

 

Italy are hoping to end a 36-match losing run in the championship – the worst sequence in championship history. There have been two World Cups played since their last Six Nations victory, against Scotland in February 2015.

 

Italy have managed two wins and a draw against Wales in their 22 championship meetings, but the most recent of those successes was 15 years ago. They will be keen to avoid their experience from 2020 when the Azzurri failed to score on their last visit to Cardiff, losing 42-0 as Josh Adams scored a hat-trick.

 

To make matters worse for Kieran Crowley’s Italy, Wales coach Wayne Pivac has named a starting team that shows seven changes from the 13-9 round four defeat to Grand Slam-chasing France last Friday – including the recall of Louis Rees-Zammit. The headline selection, though, will be the return of record caps holder Alun Wyn Jones for his first outing since suffering a shoulder injury against New Zealand in the autumn.

 

Alun Wyn Jones makes a sensational return to the starting line-up, after being side-lined with a shoulder injury, to win his 150th cap for Wales, extending his record as the most capped Test player of all time.

 

His return at lock sees Will Rowlands in one of three changes to the pack. Dewi Lake is promoted from the bench to start in place of the absent Ryan Elias while Dillon Lewis is in for another front row absentee, tighthead Tomas Francis.

 

There are four changes in the backs, starting at full-back where Johnny McNicholl takes over from Liam Williams. The Rees-Zammit stint on the Wales bench is also over as he gets the nod to start ahead of Alex Cuthbert.

 

Uilisi Halaholo is chosen at inside centre in place of Jonathan Davies while a switch at scrum-half sees Gareth Davies start for the first time this year in place of Tomas Williams, who was an early injury departure against the French.

 

Dan Biggar will win his 100th cap for Wales this weekend while he also retains the captaincy even though veteran skipper Jones is now back at lock. The milestones do not stop there for the Welsh as Dan Biggar will run out for his 100th appearance for the country and keeps the captaincy despite Jones’ return. 

 

The remarkable double milestone for two Welsh legends will only inspire the side who will be looking for a bonus-point victory in this game.

 

Seb Davies, 6ft 6in and nearly 19st, gets the opportunity to chance to go again in the back row alongside Josh Navidi and Taulupe Faletau. It was a unit that excelled against the French without earning the result they deserved. Navidi was named Man of the Match in the corresponding fixture last year, making 18 tackles and seven carries.

 

On the bench, Bradley Roberts is in line for his Six Nations debut. There is plenty of experience elsewhere in a five-three split

 

Italy coach Crowley is looking for his players to draw on from some of the positives seen against Scotland and finish the competition on a high against Wales.

 

On the other hand, Italy will be boosted by their late flourish in their 33-22 loss to Scotland. Two late tries aided the score line, but the Italians were still well short of claiming their first win in the 2022 Six Nations. Ange Capuozzo starts for the first time in an Italian shirt and will be looking to kick on after a brace last weekend off the bench.

 

Pierre Bruno is the player to take the hit and drop to the replacements bench for this clash in one of two changes for the Six Nations clash in Cardiff.

 

Marco Fuser comes into the second row to partner with Ferico Ruzza in the only other change to the starting XV. Niccolo Cannone is moved to the bench where Italy head coach Kieran Crowley has opted for a 6-2 split for the game at the Principality Stadium.

 

The final round means a last chance to get that elusive win and Italy will once again play with passion and heart, something that has long been a cornerstone of their rugby ethos. However, the return of Jones and the double milestone is always going to count against the Azzurri, particularly with the game being played in the Principality Stadium.

 

It was a resounding 48-7 win for Wales at the Stadio Olimpico as the visitors held a 27-0 lead at half-time. Wales scored seven tries to the one of Italy with Ken Owens securing a brace. The visitors had a whopping 12 clean breaks with possession and territory shared evenly between the two sides. The visitors would go on to win the Six Nations title and Italy would remain at the foot of the table without a win for another season.

 

Alun Wyn Jones recovery from a shoulder injury sustained in October against the All Blacks shows incredible single mindedness and he will hit the ground running as he always seems to do. He is a remarkable man whose influence on the players around him compliments his overall skill set and it was an absolute no-brainer for Pivac to bring the 36-year-old back into the starting line-up. Jones will command the game and be a difficult presence to deal with for Italy. Wales will be a menace in the lineouts and look to use set-pieces to drown any Italian resistance. A true legend of the game.

 

Dan Biggar’s 100th appearance for Wales may be overshadowed by Jones’ milestone but the captain has had an excellent Six Nations where he has evidently grown as a player and a leader with the additional responsibilities. Biggar will pull all the strings on Saturday as he has done so many times in the Welsh jersey. The influence of Jones in the forward pack will only improve the platform for the pivot to work with. Expect Biggar to have complete control and give the outside backs a chance to fire

 

Wales, despite being well beaten by Ireland and then losing narrowly to England and France, could still finish third in the Six Nations. They would need to beat Italy with a bonus point, then see how England and Scotland fare in their final games, but it is a realistic prospect.

 

Wales 45 Italy 21

 

 

Ireland v Scotland

 

Ireland will be determined to put pressure on tournament pacesetters France in the race for the title by securing a victory over Scotland at the Aviva Stadium.

That is easier said than done but the men from the Emerald Isle will be quietly confident of achieving that goal as they head into this fixture in a rich vein of form after registering solid wins over Italy in Dublin and England at Twickenham in recent weeks.

 

Prior to that, Andy Farrell‘s side started their campaign with a bang when they delivered an excellent all-round display en-route to a bonus-point victory against defending champions Wales. Their next match was a tricky assignment against high riding France in Paris, but they pushed their hosts all the way before coming up short in a 30-24 defeat.

Those wins over the Azzurri and England sets them up nicely for their match with the Scots and an Irish triumph will mean they finish the Championship as Triple Crown winners – a feat they last achieved in 2018.

 

A positive result for them also means Les Bleus have it all to do as apart from their Grand Slam ambitions, a defeat for them against England will almost certainly mean that Ireland are crowned Six Nations champions as they have a superior points difference to France.

Meanwhile, Scotland head into this fixture after delivering another mixed bag of results in 2022 and it was another campaign of “ifs” and “buts” for head coach Gregor Townsend and his troops.

 

Like last year, they made a fantastic start by beating England in their tournament opener, but it all went pear-shaped after that as they suffered back-to-back defeats to Wales and France before they bounced back with a victory against perennial whipping boys Italy, in Rome last week.

 

Scotland head coach Gregor Townsend has made two changes to his starting line-up for Scotland’s final match of the 2022 Six Nations, with Blair Kinghorn and Jonny Gray selected to face Ireland at the Aviva Stadium this Saturday.

 

Edinburgh fly-half Kinghorn is rewarded for some impressive performances, including his starring role in the recent United Rugby Championship victory against Connacht two weeks ago, and starts ahead of the dropped Finn Russell, who is on the bench.

Exeter Chiefs second-row Gray has also returned to the starting XV having been ruled out of Scotland’s last two Six Nations matches through injury.

 

Stuart Hogg once again captains the team from full-back with Edinburgh’s Darcy Graham on one wing and Glasgow Warriors’ Kyle Steyn selected on the other, following his starting role against Italy.

In the centre, Gloucester’s Chris Harris and Glasgow Warriors’ Sam Johnson start alongside each other for the third match this championship.

 

In the front-row, Edinburgh’s Pierre Schoeman is named along with Glasgow Warriors’ George Turner and Zander Fagerson. Vice-captain Grant Gilchrist will partner Gray in the second row.

 

Edinburgh’s Hamish Watson will edge one more cap closer to reaching 50 appearances and alongside him in the backrow will be Glasgow Warriors’ duo Rory Darge and Matt Fagerson, who have both been lauded for stand-out performances so far in the championship.

In the replacements, Fraser Brown is named and will be aiming to add to his 54 caps, alongside fellow front-row operators Allan Dell and WP Nel. Sam Skinner is also listed, while Bath’s Josh Bayliss has been chosen for the first time in this year’s Six Nations after making his debut against Australia in the 2021 Autumn Nations Series.


London Irish’s Ben White makes his return to the squad after not being involved last week and Edinburgh’s Mark Bennett is selected as a replacement alongside Russell of Racing 92.

 

If Gregor Townsend were in any doubt that his decision to start against Ireland with Blair Kinghorn at stand-off might be controversial, a quick scan of social media would have set him right.

 

There is little doubt that Finn Russell has been well below his best since a strong opening game against England, but with less than a season at No?10 under his belt at Edinburgh, there remains a scepticism about whether Kinghorn is a sufficiently experienced playmaker, even though he made a promising start against Tonga.

 

The Scotland coach has a track record of bold selections and has been closely involved in Edinburgh’s decision to play the 6ft 5in former full-back at stand-off this season. From his lengthy hesitation when asked whether he would have started Kinghorn against Italy had he been available, it seems likely that Townsend is simply following through on his plan for Rome.

 

It is certainly a bold move, especially because there are question marks over Kinghorn’s place-kicking. Townsend, who confirmed that Kinghorn would kick in Dublin, pointed out that Russell does not kick for Racing 92, yet his percentage of successful kicks in Test matches since 2015 is 81 per cent.

 

Kinghorn, who has been working intensively with kicking coach Chris Paterson, started the season kicking for Edinburgh but after getting just two of five kicks against Benetton at home in early December saw the kicking duties handed to Emiliano Boffelli, never to return.


Townsend has clearly concluded that Kinghorn brings more benefits than disadvantages, especially in a game which, for Scotland, is a dead rubber. He has been in excellent form for an Edinburgh side who have been scoring tries for fun and has undoubtedly shown signs of progress in his schoolboy position.

 

Against France, Kinghorn’s run made Duhan van der Merwe’s late try, the replacement No. 10 picking up the ball deep in his own half and racing through a gap in the French line before offloading inside the 22.

 

For Ireland, Wing Mack Hansen has returned to Ireland. Hansen comes in for Andrew Conway, who is being managed due to a knee problem, and he joins Hugo Keenan and James Lowe in the back three.

 

Johnny Sexton will become Ireland’s joint sixth most capped player, equalling prop John Hayes‘ cap tally (105) when he leads the side out in Dublin.

 

Jamison Gibson-Park will again pair up with Sexton in the half-backs against Scotland, while Bundee Aki and Garry Ringrose are retained at centre.

 

The front-row of Cian Healy, Dan Sheehan and Tadhg Furlong is retained while Tadhg Beirne and Iain Henderson are named in the engine room. Iain Henderson starts following James Ryan’s head injury

 

Jack Conan is at number eight with Caelan Doris switching to the blindside flank and Josh van der Flier makes his eight consecutive start at seven.

 

The replacements for the Six Nations encounter at the Aviva Stadium in Dublin are Rob Herring, Dave Kilcoyne, Finlay Bealham, Kieran Treadwell, Peter O’Mahony, Conor Murray, Joey Carbery and Robbie Henshaw.

 

Scotland got the bonus point against Italy on Saturday but the concession of two late tries in a 33-22 win took some shine off the triumph. Having followed up their opening win against England with defeats against Wales and France, Saturday’s game will go a long way to defining how their campaign is viewed.

 

Ireland have won 10 of the last 11 meetings between these two sides, with Scotland looking for their first win in Dublin since 2010. Could it happen? Yes. Will it happen? Unlikely. That means the men in dark blue have, once again, flattered to deceive and they face a daunting task against their hosts who have proven difficult to beat at the Aviva Stadium of late, with their last loss at the venue registered in February 2021 when they came up short against France.

 

Added to that is the fact that Ireland have dominated this fixture in recent years, and they head into Saturday’s match having won the last six matches between these teams.

 

The irony is a victory for the men in green will mean Irish fans cheering on England against France - which will be a strange experience. Both teams boast outstanding attacking players throughout their ranks and although there are numerous mouth-watering duels across the park, the battle between the two openside flankers, Ireland’s Josh van der Flier and Hamish Watson of Scotland, is one which should set the pulses racing as both are vital cogs for their respective teams. 

 

Van der Flier was one of Ireland’s stars against England as he delivered an excellent all-round display with his ball carrying particularly outstanding. He’s also solid on defence and a menace at the breakdowns – all attributes which are also amongst Watson’s strengths. Last year’s Six Nations player of the tournament might not have reached those lofty heights in 2022 but he is still a very good player who will be keen to finish the tournament on a high with a polished performance.

 

 

Ireland 28 Scotland 21

 

France v England


Can Les Bleus seal the Slam on Saturday night? Or will Eddie Jones’s selection calls prove a masterstroke? Antoine Dupont is hoping to lead France to a first Grand Slam since 2010 

 

Le Crunch. That’s the moniker given to this Six Nations fixture, and it seems even more fitting this year.

It’s crunch time for France because a Grand Slam is on the line. It’s been more than a decade since they lifted the Six Nations trophy and getting their hands on it at the Stade de France is viewed as an important step on the road to next year’s Rugby World Cup.

 

It’s crunch time for England, too, or perhaps more specifically for Eddie Jones. For all the head coach’s talk of ‘new England’ during this championship, of a revolutionary attacking style, we haven’t seen it put into action. In fact, their attack has looked more shapeless than shapeshifting.

 

England are playing for third place only after falling to Scotland and Andy Farrell’s men but could finish as low as fifth if France prevails and other results go against them.

 

England were the moral victors in their battle against Ireland. Their reaction to Charlie Ewels red card was galvanising and to come back to 15-15 should great effort, heart, and motivation to win.

 

Charlie Ewels did not mean to clatter James Ryan’s cheek 82 seconds into a ferociously attritional Test match. He got his angles wrong, misjudged his height, was perhaps unsighted by the whirling kaleidoscope of green and white flooding his field of vision. It was an unfortunate, gruesome accident. So early in the game, you might be inclined to show leniency to a player warming his shoulders, tuning in his radar, but by that flawed logic, in which minute should we start applying the laws?

 

Indeed, you can have sympathy for Ewels, and England, as terrific as they were with 14 men, without arguing his hit was anything but a nailed-on, stonewall red card. 

 

England have won their last two matches against France by narrow three-point margins, but Saturday's contest will be different, with France chasing a first Grand Slam since 2010 and England showing inconsistent form and a lacklustre attack throughout this Six Nations.

 

Star wing Damian Penaud has recovered from Covid-19 to take his place in the France XV for the Six Nations finale against England. Fabien Galthie has largely kept faith with the side that defeated Wales last weekend.

 

Yoram Moefana, who has impressed during this campaign, misses out. He is dropped from the squad completely due to injury, leaving Galthie to opt for a six-two split to combat England’s pack, which performed well against Ireland.

 

With the French looking to match their opponents’ power, they are pleased to welcome back Romain Taofifenua – another player to have suffered from Covid – and he takes his place among the replacements.

Elsewhere, it’s a case of more of the same with Melvyn Jaminet providing a dead-eye boot and counter-attacking threat from full-back.

 

At centre, Jonathan Danty and Gael Fickou have formed an impressive and well-balanced partnership, but they will want more from Antoine Dupont and Romain Ntamack. While Dupont has showed his quality on occasions, Ntamack has struggled to truly fire.

 

There have been few such problems up front with the pack proving to be a well-oiled machine. Gregory Alldritt has re-found his best form and is joined by Anthony Jelonch and Francois Cros in the France back-row.

 

Paul Willemse has had a superb Six Nations tournament, and, alongside standout youngster Cameron Woki, they have been a very effective unit in the engine room.

 

In the front-row, Cyril Baille and Julien Marchand are both contenders for player of the tournament, with Uini Atonio completing the XV.

England have named their side to face France in their Six Nations clash in Paris, with George Furbank a shock selection at full-back.

 

The Northampton Saints player comes in for the dropped Max Malins which means Freddie Steward shifts from number 15 to the wing on Saturday.

Eddie Jones has made one further alteration to his backline as Ben Youngs returns in place of Harry Randall for the trip to the Grand Slam chasers.

 

There are three new faces in the pack with tighthead prop Kyle Sinckler recovering from the concussion sustained against Ireland yet being limited to a bench role as support for the starting Will Stuart.

 

Charlie Ewels’ red card in the 32-15 defeat in round four means Nick Isiekwe makes his third start of the Six Nations in the second row while Sam Underhill replaces hamstring-injury victim Tom Curry at openside.

 

Joe Launchbury has failed to secure a spot among the replacements despite making his comeback from knee surgery against Ireland. Instead, Jones has opted for Ollie Chessum as lock cover.

 

England will be eager to replicate their strong scrummaging performance against France after a dominant display at the set-piece in the loss to Ireland, George highlighted the main challenge posed by France's excellent starting front row of Cyril Baille, Julien Marchand and Uini Atonio.

 

Can England raise their game to end French Grand Slam hopes? It is certainly possible. England have not clicked this Six Nations yet but, if they do, Eddie Jones' side will be a threat. It should be remembered they did defeat the World Champion Springboks in their last game of the autumn.

 

However, for that to happen, England will have to be near-perfect in all facets. Stopping the fluid and powerful French attack for the entirety of the match seems likely to be just a step too far, especially away from home with France just one win from a Grand Slam. France by a score. 

 

France 24 England 16

 

 

 

Thursday, March 10, 2022

Guinness Six Nations Round 4 - Where dreams are made of....

 

The penultimate week of the 2022 Guinness Six Nations is fast approaching and there is still plenty to play for.  Rugby Raconteur is having a good championship correctly predicting 8 results out of the 9 games played to date. Let’s see how we see this weekend’s matches:

 

Wales v France

 

First up in the unpopular Friday night slot sees Wales welcome high-flying France to the Principality Stadium. Once gain these two teams carry the burden of playing night rugby. For Wales it is an especially poisoned chalice. They have played 10 Friday night fixtures in the Six Nations since their controversial introduction in 2009 - 6 of those matches at home with only 3 wins – a mere 50%-win rate – far below Wales normal home win rate. 

 

Pivac and Wales can feel aggrieved by the standard of refereeing demonstrated by Mike Adamson. His refereeing performance also raised issues and arguably altered the result of the game at Twickenham. There were many areas of serious concern – the length of time it took to set scrums and the number of resets, and the consistency of judgment at the tackle and post-tackle among them.

 

The most critical aspect was also one of the simplest: the ability of the referee to preserve the legal space demanded at the formation of a lineout. The referee’s first mandate is, therefore, to establish a clear and obvious one-metre gap between the two lines, and ensure there is no contact between them before the ball is thrown in.

 

In the match at Twickenham, this rule was rarely observed – particularly on the Welsh throw, and particularly at lineouts in the two red zones, where the outcomes were much more likely to be significant.

 

Wales can feel particularly upset about the critical lineout in the 43rd minute which led to Alex Dombrandt’s controversial try. At first impression, it looks like miscommunication on the Welsh side between thrower (Elias) and caller (Adam Beard), which enables Alex Dombrandt to pick up the shrapnel at the tail and force his way over for the try.

 

When you watch the line out again, at the instant of release, there is no gap whatsoever between Adam Beard and Maro Itoje on the jump, or between Wyn Jones and Charlie Ewels, the two front lifters supporting them. Adam Beard has no room to even get off the ground, and it was very surprising that neither the referee himself nor his TMO found anything worth reviewing in the footage; or if they did, that they considered it irrelevant.

 

Credit must be given to Maro Itoje and the England forwards however, for exploiting to the full the loophole the officiating of the lineout offered them, right to the very end of the game.

The second area brought into focus was the treatment of head injuries. Wales have been very heavily criticised over handling of Tomas Francis’ head injury assessment against England. 

Progressive Rugby wrote a letter to World Rugby, the Welsh Rugby Union and Six Nations Rugby, saying: “Francis attempts to stand and falls back and struggled to get to his feet.

“He is seen holding his head. He is then seen using the post for support. He displays clear signs of ataxia and of being dazed. Francis displayed clear symptoms/indications under the World Rugby Head Injury Assessment protocol that necessitate the immediate and permanent removal from play. No HIA was needed.

“While, after a delay, Francis was removed from the field he was, incorrectly, allowed to undergo an HIA assessment and returned to the field, playing until the 56th minute, at which time he was permanently replaced by Leon Brown.”

For Wayne Pivac, the game at Twickenham in Round 3 showed the best and worst of Welsh rugby. For the first half, Wales didn’t really show up comprehensively losing the forward battle whilst in the second half – the three tries’ Wales scored after 53 minutes also showed how periods of individual brilliance can beat one of the best organised defences in World rugby.

 

At 17-0 down, Welsh fans were fearing the worst because though they were dominant, England had been no great shakes. If the likes of Daly, Nowell and Smith clicked then Wales would have been dispatched with ease.

 

The side had other ideas, roaring back to register three well-worked tries, outscoring their opponents three to one. The catalyst to this comeback were two thirty-year-olds who have been no stranger to the treatment table in recent years. Alex Cuthbert nicknamed ‘Horse’ ran like a thoroughbred for 80 minutes in a throwback of his 2012-13 pomp. The other member of the band reunion was Taulupe Faletau who had played only 120 minutes of rugby since July 2021 and yet topped the tackle charts for Wales and carried for 66 metres, still driving through tackles to the game’s denouement.

 

There was also a zip to Wales’ back play that had been absent for some time. Josh Adams, returned to his rightful wing position, carried with venom, and Nick Tompkins, reinforced his growing influence in the team with a try and a performance laced with tenacity, dexterity, and no little skill. The shape and alertness of the backline was a sharp contrast to the out of sorts performance seen out in Dublin and Wayne Pivac has asked that, with two home fixtures, there is further progress in a team which has shown it can compete without Alun Wyn Jones and Ken Owens.

 

Wales don’t have the power and athleticism of the top nations up front, but they have generally done a better job of covering it up and using other areas of their game to get on top. And while Wales don’t have too many effective carriers, they have always managed to find good defenders and superb breakdown operators that bring the big boys to floor quickly and efficiently, and duly disrupt opposition ball.

 

When they are at their best, they are one of the most difficult teams to play against. Injuries, however, have hampered Wales significantly and being without the brains trust of Ken Owens, Alun Wyn Jones, Justin Tipuric and Josh Navidi has left them with big holes to fill.

 

Wales also, quite frankly, miss Shaun Edwards, with their defence nowhere near as effective since the departure of the Englishman to France. Although they did superbly well to stay in contention against England, it was, on several occasions, close to breaking point, while their efforts in Round One versus Ireland were abysmal.

 

Head coach Wayne Pivac rectified that somewhat by ending the Josh Adams experiment at centre and, as a result, they have been far more solid since then, but France will test how much they have improved in their next game. You do rather worry for them in that clash, with Galthie’s men no doubt fancying their chances of dominating the set-piece and giving Dupont plenty of quick ball to work with.

 

Wales will always battle, and Tomos Williams and Dan Biggar will put them in the right positions if the forwards are indeed competitive, but they just haven’t had the cattle this year to defend their Six Nations title.

 

Wayne Pivac has named a starting XV that shows four changes from the Guinness Six Nations round three 23-19 defeat to England but finds room to keep Tomas Francis and Josh Adams in the team despite their respective head knocks sustained in London.

 

The sole alteration in the backline sees Jonathan Davies restored to the midfield in place of Nick Tompkins. Tompkins misses the game because of a concussion injury sustained when starring in Saracens' victory over Leicester at the weekend.

 

Josh Navidi has been named in Wales’ side, just a few days after playing after playing for Cardiff in the URC last weekend, his first game since October. He makes his first appearance for Wales since facing France in last year’s Six Nations, a match in which he scored his first Test try for his country.

 

Seb Davies is selected at blind-side flanker, his third start for Wales in this position and first appearance in the starting XV since the Australia match last autumn. Taulupe Faletau (number 8) completes the back row.

 

The remaining Wales alteration is at loosehead where Gareth Thomas is named - starting his second match for Wales. He joins Ryan Elias and Tomas Francis in the front row.

 

Francis and Adams have been managed clinically by Wales medical personnel in following all the required return to play protocols, as specified in the World Rugby Regulations. Having suffered no adverse reactions and no complications in successfully completing each stage of the return to play protocols, both are available for selection.

 

Wales’ back three remains unchanged with Josh Adams and Alex Cuthbert selected on the wings and Liam Williams named at full-back.

For the fourth consecutive match Will Rowlands and Adam Beard continue in the second row, while captain Dan Biggar is at fly-half and Tomos Williams at scrum-half.


Among the replacements Dillon Lewis returns as tighthead cover and Louis Rees-Zammit is also named. Wyn Jones, Dewi Lake, Jac Morgan and Ross Moriarty are the other forward replacements. Kieran Hardy and Gareth Anscombe provide half back cover.

 

France continued their momentum towards the title and a Grand Slam with a Six try demolition of Scotland at Murrayfield. Many people wondered if their Murrayfield hoodoo would continue.  Yes, France lost there in 2020, 2018 and 2016 but in case you haven’t noticed, this is a different France.

 

Mentally they are in a better place than they have been since Bernard LaPorte was head coach. It’s no coincidence that LaPorte is the peacemaker between their clubs and union, the leader who has facilitated this dramatic and sustained upturn in their results.

They’re on a mission now, to secure a grand slam this year, a World Cup next season. Part one looks certain now, part two evidently a lot trickier to predict.

 

Fabien Galthie’s men have certainly shown themselves to be the most complete team in the competition. They have a fearsome pack which has several destructive carriers, as well as savvy breakdown exponents, who provide quick ball and turnover chances for their talented backline to feast upon. In Antoine Dupont, they have the world’s best player, and he dictates play superbly, but he is not alone in terms of the decision-making process. Both Romain Ntamack and particularly Gael Fickou offer support in that facet, with Fickou also the defensive leader in the side.

 

They are looking very difficult to beat, so where can teams target to stop Les Bleus claiming a Grand Slam? Well, Scotland had some success at the set-piece, winning scrum penalties and stealing lineout ball, but neither of those areas have been especially strong for their next opponents, Wales, and England. However, if there is one team that could get it right, it is the Red Rose, who have a powerful front five on paper, even if they have yet to truly fire.

 

Nevertheless, Galthie and his coaches will want to properly shore up their scrum and lineout as they have, under pressure, had the odd brain fade. It is still a young team and they have made the odd stupid mistake, which could cost them when it gets to the crunch moments. If either the Welsh or English do get on top up front, then it will be interesting to see how this French team responds. So far over the past few matches, Galthie’s charges have done well, but that may alter in the cauldron of the Principality Stadium or when a Grand Slam is on the line. Either way, we will learn a lot about this France squad over the next two matches.

 

France head coach Fabien Galthie has kept changes to a minimum as they prepare for their crucial Six Nations Test against Wales in Cardiff on Friday. The only alteration to side that took to field in the Round Three victory against Scotland at Murrayfield sees Gabin Villiere returning from injury to take his place on the left wing.

 

He comes into the run-on side at the expense of Covid-hit Damian Penaud, who lined up on the right wing against Scotland. Yoram Moefana, who was on the left wing in that encounter, shifts to the right and will now wear the number 14 jersey.

 

In other news, scrum-half Antoine Dupont has been declared fit after missing training earlier in the week due to an arm injury. Dupont captains the side once again and is joined in the half-backs by Romain Ntamack while Gael Fickou and Jonathan Danty are the starting centres and Melvyn Jaminet lines up at full-back.

 

In the forwards, Gregory Alldritt will start at number eight with Anthony Jelonch and Francois Cros the two flankers while Cameron Woki and Paul Willemse pack down in the second row.

 

Up front, Julien Marchand lines up at hooker alongside Uini Atonio and Cyril Baille, who are the two props.

 

There are some alterations amongst the replacements as well with Les Bleus preferring a five/three forwards/backs split on their replacements bench instead of a six/two split which they used against Scotland.

That means Matthis Lebel comes into the squad for the Wales clash as extra backline cover while Romain Taofifenua drops out of the squad due to Covid and Mohamed Haouas takes over from Demba Bamba as one of the reserve props.

 

This will be the 102nd meeting between these two nations. France have won 47 of the previous matches, and Wales 51... with three draws.

France have won each of the last three games, including a dramatic, last-gasp 32-30 triumph in Paris last March that denied Pivac’s side a Grand Slam.

 

Wales are missing a huge amount of experience, but still displayed their battling qualities against both Scotland and England.

 

The Friday night clash under the lights at the Principality will be a real occasion to savour and they will hope that passionate home crowd can help achieve an upset and derail France’s Grand Slam dreams.

However, Les Bleus just look too good as things stand, combining brute force with brilliant flair, guile, ingenuity, and a ruthless edge as well as formidable strength in depth.

 

France are arguably the best team in the world and not even the absence of the lethal Damian Penaud on the wing should affect their conquering of Cardiff. Wales showed signs of improvement in the second half of a mediocre match against England, but they would have to reach levels that they do not know they can reach to halt France's procession to the title. For Les Bleus, it should all come down to Le Crunch, on the final weekend against England in Paris.

 

Their usual meltdown does not seem forthcoming this time. Away win by more than seven points.

 

Wales 16 France 24

 

 

 

Italy v Scotland

 

For Italy, the game against Ireland was ruined by World Rugby’s own rule book. The Azzuri were reduced to 13 men in just the 19th minute due to a dubious law.

 

The loss of Gianmarco Lucchesi to injury early in the encounter was a critical point. Italy replacement Hame Faiva’s red card for an obvious high tackle on Irish hooker Dan Sheehan saw the hooker given his marching orders after just 20 minutes leading to uncontested scrums in Dublin and necessitated the removal of an additional player. As Italy still had to put eight men in each scrum, even though they didn’t have to contest, they had only five backs to defend Ireland’s seven at each set piece. The enormous advantage enabled Ireland to wrap up the bonus point by halftime.

 

Toa Halafihi was the man sacrificed, while a late yellow card for Braam Steyn meant the Azzurri completed the match with just 12 players.

With Italy already having lost fellow hooker Gianmarco Lucchesi, it created chaos for the Azzurri.

 

The Azzuri can feel aggrieved as there was a tackle by Ireland second row Ryan Baird after Faiva’s red card which has upset many Italians, some who feel the Six Nations strugglers often end up on the wrong end of such calls.

 

Baird clearly hits the Italian 22, Alessandro Fusco, with an upright tackle, his shoulder making contact with the head of the Benetton back. For all the world to see, it was effectively a carbon copy of Faiva’s hit on Sheehan.

 

Pretty much everything is a work-on for Kieran Crowley, but they have taken steps in the right direction in certain aspects of their game. The defence was arguably the big issue – it only took a few phases before it broke down under Franco Smith – but they have looked a better unit since the New Zealander took over. 

 

Their effort against Ireland was admirable and, despite the heavy defeat, it may prove beneficial in the long run, while the set-piece is starting to function better as well.

 

The scrum is, in the main, holding up – albeit the Ireland match was obviously a non-event in that respect – and they are improving at the breakdown. Italy is, however, an inexperienced team and particularly in the pack they are somewhat learning on the job, with many of their players being thrown into action without gaining the necessary qualifications through the club game.

 

However, in captain Michele Lamaro, they seem to have found their next talismanic leader, following in the footsteps of Sergio Parisse, while the backline certainly has the raw materials to be a threat if the forwards can get them quality ball, but they are behind their competitors in just too many areas now. There is no facet of the game that Italy do better than any of the other teams in the Six Nations, but it is not to say that will still be the case five years down the line.

 

It is painful to watch Italy right now but there is ability in this current set-up and there is plenty of talent coming through the age-grade sides. Now patience is required, but there does come a point where they need to justify their place in the competition. Perhaps that will come against a forlorn Scottish outfit, who the Italians have had success against in the past. 

 

They have the advantage of playing at home and the Scots don’t necessarily have the sheer power up front to overwhelm the Azzurri. Of course, a win is unlikely but if they can get a losing bonus-point from either their next match or the clash with Wales, that will give them something to build on.

 

After the joy of the Calcutta Cup success, it’s all gone rather wrong for Scotland. But to be perfectly honest, that first game hinted at several weaknesses which weren’t rectified for the matches with Wales and France. Immediately following the clash in Round One, England would have been frustrated to have lost that game but looking back now they would be even more irritated.

 

Jones’ charges dominated several aspects of that encounter, but they failed to take advantage, and, to the Scots’ credit, they won the big moments in the second period to emerge 20-17 victorious. Gregor Townsend’s men have since failed to build on that triumph and struggled to break down the Welsh defence in Round Two before being completely outplayed by Les Bleus.

 

The Six Nations has not gone according to plan for Scotland and the players have been told that no-one is undroppable as they prepare to resume their campaign against Italy this weekend. The sobering nature of Saturday’s defeat by France left Gregor Townsend with much to ponder as he contemplated the end of Scotland’s Six Nations title bid with two rounds of fixtures still to play leaving the Scots in fourth place, nine points adrift of Fabien Galthie’s side who lead the standings.

 

The 36-17 loss at BT Murrayfield was Scotland’s heaviest at home in the championship since 2015 when Ireland spanked Vern Cotter’s side 40-10 to confer upon the hosts the wooden spoon.

 

Saturday was the first time Townsend’s side had conceded six tries in a game during his 52-match reign. It was also the Scots’ biggest margin of defeat in the Six Nations since 2018, his first campaign at the helm.

The optimism that preceded the start of the tournament, and which was enhanced by the win over England on the opening weekend, has drained away to be replaced by the all too familiar feeling of Scotland being on the outside looking in as the main prizes are contested.

 

The game ran away from Scotland in a few key moments just before half-time when, trailing 12-10, they butchered two golden opportunities and then allowed Gael Fickou to score a try against the run of play.

 

Townsend had labelled this squad the strongest he had worked with since 1999 but hopes of emulating Scotland’s last championship-winning side have disappeared with the back-to-back losses to Wales and France. Fabien Galthie’s side are now in the box seat to clinch their first title in 12 years while the Scots will travel to Rome and Dublin seeking to salvage something from a campaign that began with such promise.

 

The improvements made by Townsend since the 2019 Rugby World Cup have been clear to see, with notable victories achieved over England (twice), France (twice), Wales and Australia. The problem for Scotland is the strength of their rivals is such that the bar is being raised every season.

 

Gregor Townsend’s were fancied by many to mount a challenge for the title this season and the coach himself spoke of his squad being the strongest he had worked with since 1999 when he was player in the last Scotland team to win the championship.

 

Quite simply, unlike the French, Irish and English – even if the latter haven’t found the right balance yet – they lack the destructive carriers to get them regularly across the gain line. Matt Fagerson did a tremendous job in their first game but, since his injury in the opening period of the second match, they have struggled for front foot ball.

 

They have two good sets of front-rows, who do contribute well to both the set-piece and the loose, and a second-row that has been effective at disrupting opposition lineouts, but they don’t have the power to match the top teams in the world. Scotland rely on work ethic, breakdown excellence on both sides of the ball and a fly-half who can create magic moments. They also have several talented outside backs and a previously stubborn rear guard, but defence coach Steve Tandy would not have been happy with what he saw against France.

 

On transition, while it can be difficult to get organised off turnover ball, they were far too slow to react and there was quite clearly more desire in the French ranks during the 80 minutes. That will be of most concern to Townsend and Tandy heading into the final two rounds where they will expect a vast improvement. It would also help if they could finish clear cut try-scoring chances, but there was more to that French defeat than just Stuart Hogg’s drop.

 

Gregor Townsend has reacted to the heavy 36-17 round three defeat to France by naming a Scotland starting team that shows five changes from their Murrayfield loss.

 

Sam Johnson replaces the benched Sione Tuipulotu in midfield while Kyle Steyn comes in for the suspended Duhan van der Merwe on the left wing.

 

Van der Merwe is out of the rest of the Guinness Six Nations after receiving a three-week ban from the Rugby Football Union. The 26-year-old received a red card for reckless or dangerous play during Worcester’s defeat at London Irish in the Gallagher Premiership on Saturday. 

 

In the pack, George Turner is at hooker in place of the demoted Stuart McInally, Hamish Watson returns to openside with Rory Darge switching to blindside where Nick Haining loses out while Matt Fagerson is back at No8 in place of Magnus Bradbury.

 

On the bench, Scotland have gone for a five forwards/three backs split with scrum-half Ben Vellacott in line to make his debut.

 

More positively and realistically, Scotland ought to win by a comfortable margin and Scotland will be looking to pile on the points and boost their averages. It must be said that although Scotland have been inconsistent this year, they are not bad enough to lose in Rome.

 

I think any contemplation that Scotland are battling to avoid bottom place would be a complete capitulation and no excuses should be offered about the 'partisan' atmosphere in a half-empty stadium. More likely the Braveheart’s are fighting for third at best case and avoiding fifth at worst - the honour of which will surely go to them, England, or Wales. Therefore, if Scotland do somehow lose, then Townsend should either be given the bullet on the spot or fall on his sword.

 

This has been the worst showing of an Italian team in the Six Nations. They’ve scored 16 points in three matches this Six Nations, they’re yet to score a try in the second half of any three games. This is as bad a showing of an Italian side in the Six Nations as we’ve ever seen.

 

The contest in the forwards will be crucial. While the majority of tries scored against Italy have come from the backs, the platform has really been set by the success up front of the respective sides. In their three matches so far, the metres gained with ball in hand by the packs have been:

 

* France 201m – 50m Italy

* Italy 90m – 230m England

* Ireland 360m – 83m Italy

 

On a cumulative basis, Italian forwards have made less than a third of the metres of their opponents. For a Scottish pack that has yet to make 200m+ in any game this season there is a real need to take this opportunity to get on the front foot and provide a backline that is replete with Lions the kind of platform they can really go on a tear from.

 

Equally the Scottish big men must stand up and match what the other sides have done and shut down the Azzurri’s eight, smothering them and stopping their go forward. The impact of that in the previous fixtures has been to limit the possession getting into the hands of Italy’s most dangerous weapon, Paolo Garbisi. The Montpellier stand-off can pick a defence apart – but only when he has the ball. In this tournament he averages just 11 passes per 80 minutes, compared to 31 per 80 for the other countries’ starting 10s. Scotland need to ensure the young pivot’s contribution remains as inconsequential as possible.

 

The Scots have won their last 10 matches against the Italians, winning by a 19 point + advantage on four occasions and while that’s not exactly a convincing amount, this is arguably the biggest gulf in class seen between the sides in that time. 

 

The other may be in last season’s encounter, when the Scots ran out 42-point winners at Murrayfield, and although this is in Rome, the hosts haven’t shown enough to suggest they can keep this within just a few scores.

 

A narrow 25-22 victory over Japan back in June 2018 is Italy’s only result of note in recent memory, with all their victories since then coming against lower tier nations. In fact, each of their last 12 defeats since facing Scotland themselves back in November 2020 have all come by more than that 20-point margin.

 

Is there anything left to say about Italy here? Scotland won't have any trouble racking up a win – and probably a cricket score line.

 

Italy 8 Scotland 32

 

 

 

England v Ireland

 

The pick of the weekend’s fixtures sees Ireland visit Twickenham to face Eddie Jones’ England. The England coach can point to two wins out of three and still being in with a chance of winning the Championship, but in current form, Tests against Ireland at home, and Grand Slam-chasing France at the Stade de France would look anything but a sure thing.

 

Against Wales, England had first half dominance which they did not turn into the total humiliation that was called for at half time by TV pundit Clive Woodward. They had a Manu Tuilagi-sized reason for registering only one hotly debated try from Alex Dombrandt on an afternoon where nearly 82,000 fans basked in the late winter sun. 

Indeed, Tuilagi took up column inches before and after the match with Tom Curry saying the Sale man was simply ‘unique’. With the conveyor belt of England midfielders yet to offer an improvement on the big man, he will still be in the frame when his latest hamstring injury repairs itself.

 

Marcus Smith, a debatable man of the match awardee, was nevertheless steady kicking off the deck for points, and will have gained invaluable experience from playing without the spectre of Owen Farrell in camp, and his burgeoning relationship with Harry Randall was done no harm, allied to his already telepathic relationship with Alex Dombrandt.

 

England are a work in progress, and how much work that squad needs, is down to who you talk to. There are 15 Tests left to the World Cup and Eddie’s modus operandi is still clear, in his eyes anyway.

 

Quite frankly, there are several areas where England need to improve, from their attack to a few issues around their wide defence and set piece. They have done some things well and to their credit managed to control field position in all three of their matches so far, but Jones’ side have certainly not taken advantage. While Marcus Smith has created openings, those opportunities have failed to result in dominance on the scoreboard, leading to tight matches against Scotland and Wales.

 

Outside of Smith, they have lacked a bit of spark and you wonder whether there is enough pace in the back three. Freddie Steward, Max Malins, and Jack Nowell are all fine footballers, but they don’t have the raw running talent of Adam Radwan or Ollie Hassell-Collins. Having one of those two in the outside channels would certainly give England a bit extra and provide the opposition with something else to think about.

 

They could also do with a gain line presence now that Billy Vunipola has been dropped and with Manu Tuilagi regularly on the sidelines. Alex Dombrandt has done a good job but he’s not quite as effective at close quarters than Vunipola and maybe the introduction of Alfie Barbeary alongside the Harlequins number eight in the back-row would give them a bit more go-forward. Ellis Genge has shown up well in his carrying, while Kyle Sinckler is always a useful player in the loose – despite not quite finding his form yet – and Maro Itoje is starting to take more responsibility with ball in hand, but their pack is not a truly effective unit now.

 

The forwards equally need to improve in the set-piece having struggled in the lineout against Wales. They also haven’t been dominant at the scrum, and they really must step it up if they are to challenge both Ireland and France in their final two matches.

 

Eddie Jones has made 2 changes to the team that beat Wales.

 

Sam Simmonds starts at No.8, while Harlequins centre Joe Marchant retains the 13 spot outside of Henry Slade with Elliot Daly dropped to bench

 

Kyle Sinckler has bene passed fit after earlier injury doubts and Alex Dombrandt has sufficiently recovered from Covid to secure a place amongst England’s replacements. His inclusion was pending a successful run-out in today’s training session and while removed from the starting XV that defeated Wales, he can provide number eight cover from the bench.

 

Joe Launchbury replaces Nick Isiekwe on the bench and is set to make his first England appearance since December 2020.

Harry Randall again starts at nine.

 

With Luke Cowan-Dickie injured, Jamie George starts at hooker and Jamie Blamire - who has five England caps - is on the bench.

 

Tom Curry is included at flanker having completed return-to-play protocols following a concussion sustained in victory against Wales, and captain Courtney Lawes completes the back row.

 

In some ways, you must feel for this Irish side. They are arguably playing better than they did when they last won the Grand Slam in 2018, but Andy Farrell’s men simply came up against an outstanding French team in Round Two. Ireland has an effective game plan which generates quick ball, gets their playmakers in possession and challenges defences. With the likes of Tadhg Furlong operating as a dual threat on the gain line, mixing powerful carrying with dextrous handling, they are keeping opposition sides guessing and it is proving very difficult to stop.

 

To be honest, there wasn’t much between the teams in the game in Paris, which means they aren’t far from being among the world’s best, but Farrell would no doubt like them to get a bit more set-piece dominance, especially when they face England. Equally, when in control they have lacked a clinical edge at times, butchering chances late on against Wales and struggling to really put away an Italy outfit that were at least two men down for an hour.

 

Despite being satisfied with a substantial boost to his team’s points difference, Farrell felt the performance could have been more convincing.

A brace apiece for debutant Michael Lowry and James Lowe, plus further scores from Joey Carbery, Jamison Gibson-Park, Peter O’Mahony, Ryan Baird and Kieran Treadwell did the damage against the Azzurri.

Carbery also added two of his five conversion attempts, while substitute Johnny Sexton was flawless with his four.

 

At 36, questions about Johnny Sexton’s future are inevitable. Can he last to the next World Cup? Is it time to invest in someone else’s future, Ireland’s future, rather than hang onto its past?

 

Well, after the game against Italy, the answer to the first question is yes, the answer the second one, no. Joey Carbery got the nod to start against Italy. He lasted 54 minutes, scored a try, had a hand in a couple of others, and did okay. Then Sexton appeared on the scene. It took Ireland 26 minutes to score 28 points with their captain on the field, one fewer than the 29 they’d posted up until that point. What does that tell you about him, about the rest of the team, even about Carbery?

 

We saw it with our own eyes. Ireland were shapeless in attack until Sexton landed. Suddenly the team looked like they had a plan again. Ireland should bin any game plan that doesn’t include Sexton in it. 

 

Ireland and England have each registered two wins and a loss so far, with the former higher in the standings courtesy of an additional bonus point.

Farrell’s men eventually ran in nine tries against the depleted 

 

There were also handling errors in the first half against France, while their discipline let them down as well, leading to several opportunities for Melvyn Jaminet to take shots at goal. It will therefore be interesting to see how they react against Eddie Jones’ charges if the English are able to put them under similar pressure in Round Four.

 

Ireland head coach Andy Farrell has made six changes to his side to face England. Captain Johnny Sexton returns to the starting XV along with Hugo Keenan, Andrew Conway, Bundee Aki, Cian Healy and James Ryan.

 

Ireland captain Johnny Sexton has been recalled in the starting XV returning to the line-up at fly-half and he will continue in the half-backs by in-form scrum-half Jamison Gibson-Park.

 

The 36-year-old, who this week signed a contract extension and announced he’ll retire following the 2023 Rugby World Cup, replaces Joey Carbery.

 

Bundee Aki is restored at centre to partner Garry Ringrose while Andrew Conway and full-back Hugo Keenan are also back alongside James Lowe.

 

Up front, Ireland veteran prop Cian Healy wins his 115th cap in a front-row that also includes Leinster team-mates Dan Sheehan and Tadhg Furlong.

Tadhg Beirne and James Ryan will line out in the engine room while Peter O’Mahony, Josh van der Flier and Caelan Doris make up a strong back-row.

 

On the replacements bench, Rob Herring, Dave Kilcoyne, Finlay Bealham, Iain Henderson, and Jack Conan cover the pack. Conor Murray, Joey Carbery and Robbie Henshaw are the backline options for what should be an absorbing Six Nations showdown.

 

For all the justifiable excitement surrounding Marcus Smith, this Six Nations was always going to pose a prolonged examination of his ability that had been unmatched in intensity over his young career to date. 

The hosts’ defence should be challenged thoroughly on Saturday at Twickenham. And, make no mistake, Ireland will be gunning for Smith.  

 

Ireland have only beaten England once at Twickenham since 2010, but this feels like it could be their year. They are favourites with the bookmakers and head to south-west London on the back of an incredibly impressive autumn - in which they beat New Zealand - and a narrow loss to probable champions winners France aside, have looked organised, coherent, and incisive this Six Nations, too.

 

England, meanwhile, are yet to fully click and, with the tournament's two most fancied teams coming up, this could be a make-or-break fortnight for Eddie Jones' side.

 

 

England 19 Ireland 23