Six Nations 2016 Round 3 - Get Ready For A Surprise!

If anyone was expecting things to improve in Round 2 of the 2016 Six Nations Tournament they will have been bitterly disappointed at the standard of rugby on display. The cloud of gloom and despondency which has hung over the Northern Hemisphere teams since their dismal World Cup performances has not lifted at all and but for 30 minutes in Rome – all six matches have been well below par.  Sure there have been flashes of inspiration but for the most part every team has under-performed well below its capabilities.

So what can we expect in Round 3? I am not expecting a massive transformation in the standard of play but I am certain after a week break that some slow marginal improvements will be in evidence. Let's look forward to this weekend’s matches:

WALES v FRANCE

First up on Friday evening in Cardiff is the clash between Wales and France. Wales have played in every Friday night fixture in the Six Nations and comments have been widespread in the press this week that the Principality Stadium is being over-used for Friday games.

Personally I am not a fan of Friday night rugby. It means time off work for many people and the after match celebration is muted as the late kick offs leave minimal time to enjoy the victory.

The Principality Stadium will again have its roof closed and Wales will be hoping for a repeat of their last Friday night encounter in 2014 when Wales were comfortable winner by a margin of 26-7.

Wales showed signs of improvement against Scotland but not enough for anyone to feel that the dreariness of their game in Dublin was a one off aberration. Wales were poor again in the first half against the Scots but the Scrum held up well to give Taulupe Faletau a deserved try and George North looked much more like his old self with an excellently taken opportunity.

The final score line flattered the Scots as Wales let in a soft final try and overall Coach Warren Gatland will be pleased to get that banana skin out of the way and step up a gear against France.

Wales make three changes to the team, which beat Scotland. In the back row, the experiment of playing two open side flankers has been disappointing and inconclusive so Warren Gatland recalls the defensive giant Dan Lydiard to the No.6 jersey with Sam Warburton reverting to Open side and Justin Tipuric relegated to the replacements.

Wasp’s Bradley Davies is recalled to the 2nd Row with Luke Charteris out due to a knee injury. Charteris was not involved for Racing 92 against Grenoble last Saturday, and his loss will be a blow to unbeaten Wales, given the impression he made in opening Six Nations appointments with Ireland and Scotland. Scarlets aggressive 2nd row Jake Ball returns from injury to take a place on the bench.

Centre Jonathan Davies, however, will feature alongside Jamie Roberts in midfield after concerns about his fitness as he missed his club Clermont Auvergne's league game against Castres three days ago because of a groin problem. Rhys Priestland is another who was also a concern but fortunately he has shaken off the dead leg he suffered during Bath's Aviva Premiership defeat against Wasps last weekend

The final change is a little more controversial. Tom James drops completely out of the match day squad as he loses his starting place to Alex Cuthbert. Cuthbert has been struggling with his form for a year now but has shown some signs of recovery and in last weekend’s club match with James he looked the sharper of the two players.  James has not looked entirely comfortable in either of the two matches in the red jersey but he also did little wrong and will be upset at losing his place. Given his previous outbursts when Gatland has dropped him – it will be interesting to see how he reacts. One hopes that with age comes maturity and he will shrug it off and look to fight to regain a place for the crucial game against England in two weeks time.

Many will be shocked at Cuthbert’s recall as Dragons flyer Hallam Amos is ignored again but Gatland has a tendency to stick with what he knows and Cuthbert for him at least is a safe choice.

France were poor again in their match against Ireland but at least they recorded a victory against a team they had struggled against in recent encounters. The match is Paris was absolutely dire. The weather wasn’t helping but neither team showed any real flair and France squeaked home with late Maxine Medard try to gain a (just) deserved victory.

Guy Noves rings the changes for Wales with five changes to the team that defeated Ireland. Uncapped Stade Francais winger Djibril Camara will make his first start for Les Bleus coming in for the injured Teddy Thomas. Elsewhere, Noves finally loses patience with the stuttering Sebastien Bezy and rightly recalls Maxime Machenaud at scrum half. Machenaud was instrumental in sparking France for the win against Ireland and deserves his first start in the 2016 competition.

Antoine Burban, Paul Jedrasiak and Rabah Slimani also feature in the starting XV with Bezy, Uini Atonio and Yoann Maestri all dropping down to the bench, while fly half Francois Trinh-Duc is also named among the replacements on his return to the squad.

Wales have not fired at all well in the early stages of their matches so far and it will be critical that they open this match at a high tempo. France has suspect fitness and the Welsh defensive game should and superior cardio-vascular performance should give them the edge in the second half. France have got a good line-out and scrum and some big ball-carriers, They have a little bit of experience but have also got a bit of the unknown. Guy Noves hasn’t really been tested at this level as a coach and this is a big game for the coach. How he uses the talent on his bench will be critical if France are to get any kind of result in Cardiff.

The scrums will be an interesting area to watch. Wales have scrummaged well in both the other matches but will be stepping up a level against France who have also shown significant progress in the scrums. Line out ball with be critical and Wales will miss the giant Charteris who has been such a dominant disrupting figure to opposition lineouts.

The Welsh back row shows a much better balance with Lydiard and Warburton either side of the excellent Faletau. Faletau is on track to be in consideration for the player of the tournament for me with some strong attacking play and a peerless defensive game with 33 tackles and no misses in the opening encounters.

Wales should have too much guile and ability for this French team and I don’t see a close contest this time. France will fold like a pack of cards and a comfortable Welsh victory will set them up for the title decider at Twickenham on 12^th March. Wales have everything to play for and I’m predicting they will win by sixteen points

Wales 30 France 14

ITALY v SCOTLAND

Scotland head to Rome once again hoping to avoid defeat and try and get their Six Nations campaign started.  Defeat for Scotland on Saturday would make it ten on the bounce in the RBS 6 Nations. It is critical they go into the match playing to win rather than playing not to lose. This could be the critical difference between a victory and another morale-sapping defeat.

Coach Vern Cotter has had to deal with a series of injury issues in the build-up to traveling to Rome, with Blair Cowan and Sean Maitland already ruled out of the game.  Scotland make just one change to the team which narrowly lost to Wales with Harlequins wing Tim Visser returning straight back into the starting lineup from injury.   Sean Lamont moves to a much-changed bench, which includes uncapped Edinburgh loose-head prop Rory Sutherland.

Tight-head Moray Low, and flanker Ryan Wilson are also named among the replacements whilst Gordon Reid, Zander Ferguson, Duncan Weir, Ruaridh Jackson and the injured Blair Cowan drop out of the match-day 23.

Full-back Stuart Hogg and wing Tommy Seymour are fit after suffering knocks in Cardiff, while Duncan Taylor retains the number 12 jersey ahead of fit-again Matt Scott after a strong outing against Wales.

For Italy, they competed well against an error-prone England for 45 minutes before throwing it all away with a careless interception and then losing all defensive shape in the final 20 minutes against a powerful looking England attack.

Coach Jacques Brunel will be sweating over the fitness of fly half Carla Canna. The 23-year-old flyer went off during Italy's loss to England and has been struggling with a leg injury, while centre Giulio Bisegni has also been training separately from the squad with a calf problem he picked up at the weekend.  Canna has looked promising so far in the tournament, and his absence would be a real blow to Jacques Brunel There was better news over Marco Fuser and Alessandro Zanni who are both expected to be fit, while Michele Campagnaro and Josh Furno have joined the squad after playing on Saturday.

If he doesn't make it, the decision would come down to Edoardo Padovani, who made his debut against England, or Kelly Haimona, who was expected to be used more as a centre in the Championship.

The other debate comes at hooker where Ornel Gega has had to pull out through injury. Davide Giazzon was the replacement against England but might be leapfrogged by fit-again Leonardo Ghiraldini.

David Odiete is also fit again and will be hoping to reclaim a starting role which he had in the opener in Paris although I would be tempted to stick with he trusted Luke McLean for this match.

This is a must win game for Vern Cotter. Defeat will send Scotland backwards into an inward looking crisis whilst victory will set them up with a chance of victory in the final two games against France and Ireland. Greig Laidlaw's team

are on a run of nine-in-a-row defeats, the second worst run in the championship in Scotland's 145-year history. Scotland lost six of those nine games by seven points or less. They lost eight of them against teams that few thought they would beat. The only game they lost that they were expected to win was Italy, at Murrayfield, last season.

They can bring it to an end that dismal run with victory in Rome this weekend, of course. They're good enough and they're favourites to do it. I expect Italy to front up in the pack and Scotland will need to continue the resolute defence they demonstrated for large spells against Wales. 

If Scotland concedes an early try then you have to fear for them. Italy are not renowned at goal kicking so the penalty count may not be the biggest fear factor.  A failure to secure their own line out and Italy dominating the scrums and it could be another bad day at the office for Scotland.  Ross Ford’s lack of precision with the throws caused a lot of issues against Wales and he cannot afford another poor game. Neither can Greig Laidlaw. His decision-making was poor against Wales and did not reflect his huge experiences. He needs a cool head and to keep his concentration for the entire 80 minutes of this potential firecracker.

I like the look of the Scottish threequarters and if they can secure enough ball then a win is surely in reach. Scotland to win but there will be plenty of squeaky bum moments

Italy 14 Scotland 23

ENGLAND v IRELAND

England will go into this match full of confidence after an exciting 20-minute display against Italy in Rome. England had a hard grinding mistake strewn first half before their superior guile, flair and fitness told with a decisive victory. That 20-30 minute spell in Rome is probably the only period of modest standard rugby so far in the Tournament and coach Eddie Jones will be pleased with the performance of his team in only his second match in charge of the Rose.

Coach Eddie Jones largely shows faith with team who did the business in Rome. There are just two changes to his side to the side to face Ireland. The impreesive Saracens forward Maro Itoje will make his full England debut and  is promoted to the starting XV for his second cap after Joe Launchbury was ruled out of the contest against the champions by a hamstring problem, with Courtney Lawes supplying second-row cover from the bench.

Itoje was very impressive during a second-half cameo at the Stadio Olimpico that lasted 28 minutes. The 21-year-old reinforced the Rose assault at blindside flanker, replacing Chris Robshaw, but has played most of his senior rugby at 2^nd row- the position from which he captained England to victory during the 2014 World Junior Championship.

He was set to feature on the bench against Ireland until Launchbury was ruled out by a hamstring injury on Wednesday afternoon, resulting in Lawes' return to the match day squad and clearing a path for Itoje to start.

The second change made to the starting XV that demolished Italy sees Joe Marler swap places with Mako Vunipola once again.

Wasp’s centre Elliot Daly is set to make his England debut against Ireland on Saturday after being named in Eddie Jones' squad for the Twickenham showdown. The uncapped Wasps centre has played four times for England Saxons and also represented England at under-18 and under-20 level and could be making his first appearance in the match-day 23 after Ollie Devoto was ruled out of the third round of the Championship with concussion. Daly has been the outstanding English centre in the Aviva Premiership this season and I believe he offers cover in both midfield positions and at full-back.

George Kruis is a key cog in the England machine as he prepares for a lineout battle that could prove pivotal at Twickenham this Saturday. Saracens man Kruis performed excellently in his country's two RBS 6 Nations wins against Scotland and Italy, even if Eddie Jones' men weren't exactly convincing in the lineout in Rome. 

England remain dangerous behind the pack with Jonathan Joseph showing outstanding pace and guile against Italy and Watson and Nowell providng threats from the wing.

Ireland has performed pretty much as I expected in this tournament.  Hopes of a third title are now expired and they were relieved to have the draw with Wales but the Paris rain demonstrated their lack of strength in depth as injuries continue to decimate the Irish squad.

I expect Joe Schmidt to be bold and make some substantial changes for the visit to HQ. Schmidt will be pleased to see Mike Ross and Cian Healy both come through last weekend’s Pro 12 clashes and there must be a temptation to start them against England. Schmidt's selection headache has again been worsened through injury. Mike McCarthy, Dave Kearney and Sean O'Brien have all been ruled out of the remainder of the RBS 6 Nations, while Jared Payne's fitness remains a doubt.

Ulster’s Stuart McCloskey must be up for start at Centre if  Jerrod Payne fails to overcome a hamstring problem and with the injuries in the 2nd row there is an outside chance he will start the giant Ultan Dillane. The 22-year-old Connacht lock is poised to make his Ireland debut in Saturday's Twickenham showdown. Paul O'Connell's retirement and long-term injuries to Ulster pair Iain Henderson and Dan Tuohy have severely depleted Ireland's stock of available 2nd row forwards

Munster's Donnacha Ryan could start against England, paving the way for the raw but talented Dillane to take a seat on Ireland's bench.

Payne's Ulster teammate Stuart McCloskey is in line to win his first cap

Craig Gilroy has been rewarded for his superb Ulster form and could come in for the injured Kearney and Schmidt will be thankful Tommy O'Donnell emerged unscathed from Munster's clash with Glasgow. O'Donnell will presumably start on the openside alongside Jamie Heaslip and CJ Stander, Schmidt will then have to choose between recalled Leinster forward Jordi Murphy and Rhys Ruddock to join the replacements.

Twickenham can be a caldron when England are confident but it will hold no fear for an Ireland team that no one expects to win. England should have too much power and I expect a comfortable England victory.

England 23 Ireland 14

Six Nations 2016 Round 2 – Hoping for Better things…

Six Nations 2016 Round 2 – Hoping for Better things…

The 2016 Six Nations Round 1 is now just a distant memory and good riddance. What a disappointment it was! The three matches that took place at the weekend were all very disappointing for the neutral spectator with few tries and lots of errors. Despite the tight score lines, only one of the three matches showed any real passion. The France v Italy game was at least exciting to watch and provided the weekend’s only real pulse racing moments with France eventually winning an error filled encounter in Paris.

Those doubting Thomas’s from the Southern Hemisphere who couldn’t see a way that the Six Nations could compete with their Rugby Championship are looking like being proven right given that poor start in Round 1. But one swallow doesn’t make a summer and one round doesn’t make a tournament.

The second area of controversy this week has been the announcement that the World’s top 3 referees – Nigel Owens, Jerome Garces and Craig Joubert are only each taking one match in this years’ tournament.  Roman Poite, South African Jaco Peyper and Glen Jackson of New Zealand have all been granted two matches each.

There are two ways of viewing this. The negative view would be it’s a poor tournament so it doesn’t need the best referees. The positive counter would be this very farsighted from World Rugby to blood and develop the next tier of referees giving them vital experience for the future.

I think the positive view is the right one and World Rugby should be applauded for this move.

So what can we expect in Round 2?  Here is my quick review of the matches, which proceed this weekend.

France v Ireland

A tough encounter for the men of green who travel to Paris for an away game against France with only a six-day turnaround. Guy Noves new look French team did not deliver the promised attacking rugby in particular the defensive patterns looked very suspect. The team didn’t look together and the centre partnership looked like they met in the Pub 30 minutes before the kick off. Italy got on top of the pack at various times and only a late controversial penalty enabled France to achieve an undeserved victory over the Italians.

For Ireland, the 16-16 draw with Wales will no doubt be a disappointment especially after racing to a 13-0 lead in the first 25 minutes. Up until Joe Schmidt took charge of the Ireland team in 2014 the ‘France away’ fixture held little prospect of a victory for this generation of Irish rugby fans. After a famous win in 1972, Ireland had to wait until the Denis Hickie-inspired comeback of 2000 to taste success in Paris.

Ireland’s recent record against the French – they look for their fourth win in a row on Saturday – is their best since 1924-1928 when they managed six victories on the bounce. Freshest in the memory is the ferocious battle of attrition in Cardiff during the World Cup, a victory that came at the cost of Paul O’Connell’s rugby career and Johnny Sexton’s tournament.

Ireland ground out an 18-11 win in Dublin this time last year, and secured the 2014 title with a 22-20 win in Stade de France, Brian O’Driscoll’s last game in an Ireland shirt.

The short turnaround means that starters against Wales, Simon Zebo and Keith Earls, don’t make the cut. Both of who are nursing minor knocks.

In come Rob and Dave Kearney, while Sean O’Brien, outstanding in the RWC win over France, takes Tommy O’Donnell’s spot at flanker

Other than that it is essentially the same team, which ground out that dire defensive draw with Wales. 

For France, their performance last weekend can at best go down to early tournament rustiness and Guy Noves will be looking for a much stronger performance this weekend against Ireland. A defeat on Saturday and France’s Six Nations will be over with tough away trips to Cardiff and Edinburgh to follow.

For France, wing Teddy Thomas and centre Maxime Mermoz replace Hugo Bonneval, and Gael Fickou, who is absent for personal reasons.

In the forwards, props Eddy Ben Arous and Rabah Slimani drop to the bench as Noves goes for Jefferson Poirot and the giant Uini Atonio either side of captain Guilhem Guirado, with second row Paul Jedresiak and injured back row Louis Picamoles making way as Alexandre Flanquart and Yacouba Camara come in.

Although Ireland didn't lose a scrum against Wales, the set piece was under pressure and the “relay” of Slimani to the bench is perhaps the most surprising.

The bookies are struggling to separate the sides and a draw (yes, another one) wouldn't come as much of a surprise.  That would realistically kill Ireland's chances of another title and they will need to keep their starting XV on the field for as long as possible, if there are to have any chance of victory in Paris.

Jonny Sexton is again the critical man and I am also excited to see Sean O’Brien, Heaslip and CJ Stander come together as a back row trio for the first time at this level. Stander was the outstanding Irish player against Wales and his 23 carries last weekend takes him to hallowed ground. Only five players have ever carried more in a Six Nations match.

I think France will bounce back from last weekend. The winger Virimi Vakatawa had an excellent game against Italy and I suspect he will cause Ireland some problems. I am surprised that Noves has retained Sebastien Bezy at scrum half. He had an awful game last weekend and if Parra gets fit he must be in line for a recall against Wales.

The French bench is very strong and their pack could cause Ireland some problems especially in the latter stages. Again hard to call but I think France will squeak home.

France 19 Ireland 16

Wales v Scotland

Scotland were desperately disappointing against England and it will be with some trepidation that they travel to Cardiff to face an underachieving Wales team.

For Wales, they will want to push aside the memories of the Dublin disappointment and kick on to put Scotland to the sword in Cardiff.

Coach Warren Gatland names an unchanged team for the Scots with only one change on the bench with Gareth Anscombe shaking off the tight hamstring which caused his late withdrawal against Ireland to replace Alex Cuthbert.

I have to say my eyebrows were raised with news that Dan Biggar has miraculously shaken off the ankle injury, which curtailed his match against Ireland. I have to admit he looked a lot worse when he came off in Dublin and I am not sure I would have risked him for this encounter.

Wales were frankly awful and asleep for the opening 25 minutes in Dublin and there must also be concerns that they failed to break through the Irish defence with any clean breaks against five for the men in green. The promise of new attacking techniques was not on display and it was an exhibition of textbook Warrenball – pure and simple.

Many of the Welsh team are still not at full fitness and it showed. Jonathan Davies had a quiet game. Liam Williams looked slightly tired towards the end and Captain Sam Warburton is lucky to keep his place and he knows he must lead his team to a much-improved performance this weekend.

The one area Wales did show some real progress was at the scrums. Young Loose head prop Rob Evans had a strong showing and Samson Lee looks like he is returning to his best form. Wales were rock solid and had Ireland scrummage under pressure leading to Faletau’s well-taken try.

Jamie Roberts and Taulupe Faletau were the stand out men for Wales with strong defensive and attacking showings.

As for Scotland they have to be bitterly disappointed the way they folded to English pressure at Murrayfield. Greig Laidlaw had an uncharacteristically poor game and Finn Russell looked like he had the weight of the world on his shoulders.

Eight straight losses now in the Six Nations and eight losses in a row to Wales too. It’s hard to see what coach Vern Cotter can do to bring a change in fortunes?

Just a solitary change in the Scottish team for this weekend’s match with Duncan Taylor, the admirable Saracen, in for the injured Matt Scott in the midfield. The forward pack is unchanged, with Alasdair Dickinson, Ross Ford and WP Nel in the front row who will be looking to cause Wales some disruption in the scrums and at the breakdown.

The Scottish team has shown some good progress and it wasn’t all doom and gloom last weekend more an opportunity missed. Tommy Seymour made far too many errors and I felt Cotter should have brought Blair Cowan on far earlier in the match.

Stuart Hogg remains a threat from full back and the Scottish pack are no mugs. John Barclay is very familiar with all the Welsh players and they know to expect a wounded dragon to come out firing on all cylinders in Cardiff.

Scotland are a better side now than they have been for a number of years but that isn’t saying much. They have a decent scrum and a reliable lineout. They have an industrious back row and they have a backline full of nice footballers. But what they lack is something exceptional.

Any quality side should have somebody or something that poses a threat. Whether it’s a powerful scrum, a driving maul, an aerial game or simply an individual that is so potent that it influences the outcome of international matches. It might not do it every time but when this aspect of the game is working, the team wins.

Scotland have no weapons, and international rugby is a tough place to be if you’ve got no weapons

Wales will be desperate to win and win well against a Scotland side that always seems to raise its game in Cardiff. I would like to see a more expansive Welsh attack to bring Faletau more into the action and less reliant on an attritional defensive one-dimensional aspect. The return of Dan Biggar is a critical factor and I fear Scotland could have something of a hiding but Wales must be wary of interceptions with their flat passing game.

Scotland will compete hard but I don’t see a breakthrough. With inclement weather likely in Cardiff, both teams have agreed to have the roof closed in the hope of a better running game. Wales by at least two scores.

Wales 23 Scotland 9

Italy v England

Well what do I know? Not a lot based on way I completed dismissed Italy’s chances against France. Quite simply the Italians played way above their expected capabilities with Sergio Parisse once again showing why is rated as the world’s best No. 8.

Quote honestly he was absolutely everywhere against France. Leading from the front and inspiring the many new faces in the Italian. Team.

Jacques Brunel used his substitutions and bench very intelligently and it was a very encouraging start for a written off Italy.

As I write this review, neither England or Italy have announced their team line-ups so in the interests of time, I have to use my crystal ball and look at any potential lineup changes.

Jacques Brunel and Italy will be forced to make at least one change to his Italy team to take on England, with fullback David Odiete having been ruled out through injury.

Luke McLean seems the obvious choice for that role, however Brunel has placed his faith in youth already this campaign. I think we will go with experience and McLean will be I believe the only change. After going down narrowly in Paris, Brunel will surely be tempted to stick with the players who impressed at the Stade de France.

Debutants Andrea Lovotti and Ornel Gega shone in the front row and I believe there will not be any changes at all in the pack.

In the backline Carlo Canna will look to build on a strong performance against Les Bleus, and looks to have shaken off the knock he picked up at the end of the game.

For England, there are two additions to the squad that won comfortably at Murrayfield.  For the trip to Rome, Elliot Daly and open side flanker Matt Kvesic are out and in comes another young talent - but this time it's No.8 Josh Beaumont - leading some to anticipate a 6-2 split between forwards and backs this weekend on the bench.

Maro Itoje has once again been included in a 25-strong England squad for Sunday's RBS 6 Nations clash with Italy in Rome. Itoje has been in outstanding form for Saracens this season and could be in line for a first cap in round two of the Championship at the expense of Joe Launchbury, Courtney Lawes or George Kruis. Kruis was outstanding against Scotland so I think Lawes could be the unlucky here and may drop from the bench.

Coach Eddie Jones has hinted that there will be changes to his pack due to the conditions expected at the Stadio Olimpico.

Jack Clifford made his debut off the bench in Edinburgh and I believe will be promoted, but selecting the fast Harlequins back row Jones would mean having to drop either James Haskell or Chris Robshaw - both of whom performed well against the Scots. Clifford would certainly bring some added speed to the back row

So while many are hoping the likes of Itoje and Beaumont are handed their debuts, the starting XV looks set to stay largely the same. In the backline Ben Youngs' bright cameo last weekend could see him leapfrog Danny Care at No.9 but elsewhere the three-quarters look set to stay largely unchanged.

Should Jones pack his bench with forwards and give Itoje and Beaumont a chance, then Ollie Devoto's versatility could prove vital alongside a scrum-half in reserve.

England did a workmanlike performance against Scotland. Owen Farrell had a mediocre day with the boot and George Ford really is looking off the pace. England could really do with a proper inside centre but I don’t see Jones tinkering too much with the winning formula.

The weather in Rome is unpredictable and may not be the warmer drier weather England are hoping for. Italy has never beaten England – their only remaining Six Nations scalp – and despite the heroics in Paris, I don’t see England letting this one slip. A comfortable win for England before the two tough games at Twickenham will leave them favourites for the title.

Italy 9 England 27

Six Nations 2016 – Round 1 – Y’all Ready For this?

Six Nations 2016 – Round 1 – Y’all Ready For this?

After last week’s preview, the tournament gets real this weekend. And how real does it get? Quite frankly – we have three titanic battles to open the tournament and as I pack for the weekend in Dublin, I am looking forward to a weekend rugby festival.

A lot of comments in the press and on TV this week have compared the tries scored in the Southern Hemisphere Rugby Championship with the penalty kick dominated Six Nations. I think they are missing the point and getting a little carried away. Quite honestly, New Zealand are a class apart right now and the Rugby Championship with long distances involved doesn’t have the fervor and passion of the Six Nations where National pride and a patriotic crowd increases the pressure immensely for players to win at all cost.

They also seem to forget that the Northern Hemisphere teams are all playing Southern Hemisphere style rugby. I remember well the days when Wales would try and run from anywhere. The heartache of the 2007 World Cup defeat to Fiji still sits with me as a desperate day in Welsh rugby history. Watch the game as a neutral and it was a fantastic spectacle where both teams threw caution to the wind and went for it. But would I swap that for the defence dominated match-winning Wales of today? Not in a million years.

Winning is not everything – its the only thing!

FRANCE v ITALY

The opening match sees the fragile inexperienced Italy travel to Paris to meet Guy Noves' new look France.  Both teams will be anxious to avoid a first week defeat and for Noves – winning is not the only tolerable outcome – he has also to win well to satisfy the discontented Bleus supporters.

It’s a bold and exciting first team selection from Noves containing four uncapped players in the starting XV with a grand total of seven players potentially making their first outing for Les Bleus on Saturday as Noves looks to start the new French era with a bang and his promised attacking rugby.

The most surprising is the call up of France Sevens stalwart Virimi Vakatawa who has been selected on the wing. Vakatawa, who has not played any 15-man rugby since 2013, will form a new look back three alongside the reliable Maxime Medard and Hugo Bonneval.

Sebastien Bezy also makes his debut at scrum half and will pair up with number 10 Jules Plisson in the absence of the injured Morgan Parra and Francois Trinh-Duc who was deemed not fit enough when Noves assembled his squad last month.

I am also pleased to see  Stade Français Centre Jonathan Danty given his chance to impress and he is paired with Gael Fickou in an exciting combination of flair in the centres. Lock Paul Jedrasiak is the other uncapped player.

Up front Eddy Ben Arous and Rabah Slimani are the props either side of new captain Guilhem Guirado in a powerful looking front row.

Jedrasiak is paired with the experienced Yoann Maestri in the second row with Damien Chouly, Wenceslas Lauret and the peerless Louis Picamoles in the back row.

On the replacements bench Camille Chat, Jefferson Poirot are in line for their debuts in the front row if brought on while another debutant Yacouba Camara is the back-row cover.

Maxime Machenaud, Jean-Marc Doussain and Maxime Mermoz provide the back-line cover on the bench while the other forward replacements are Alexandre Flanquart and the giant Uini Atonio respectively.

This is a clear statement of intent and I expect France to respond and dominate against their vastly inexperienced competitors. Italy however has nothing to lose and one thing we have all learned is young untried teams have a habit of upping their game as there is no fear of defeat.

Jacques Brunel mirrors Guy Noves in naming 4 new caps in his starting XV for the match in Paris.  David Odiete from Italian league side Marchiol Mogliano will start at fullback and is a real surprise selection in place of the experienced and safe Luke McLean. Mattia Bellini from Padova is another Italian league addition on left wing, whilst fellow debutants Andrea Lovotti (Zebre) and Ornel Gega (Treviso) are in Italy's front row.

Prop Matteo Zanusso and No.8 Dries van Schalkwyk could make also make their international debuts from the bench.

Leonardo Sarto will join the new faces in the back three, while Gonzalo Garcia and Michele Campagnaro are the new centre partnership. Carlo Canna has been handed the number ten jersey and will combine with scrum-half Edoardo Gori just behind an experienced-looking back row of evergreen and critical captain Sergio Parisse and flankers Alessandro Zanni and Francesco Minto.

Wasps tighthead Lorenzo Cittadini joins hooker Gega and loosehead prop Lovotti in the front row, ahead of locks Marco Fuser and George Fabio Biagi.

Expect lots of fireworks in the forwards and some aggressive attacking rugby form France. I really can’t see beyond Les Blues and a home win in Paris.

France 27 Italy 12

SCOTLAND V ENGLAND

 The Calcutta Cup once again is the opening fixture for the ‘Auld Enemies’ and Scotland will be looking for their first win at Murrayfield against the Rose since 2008 in this 134gth meeting between the teams.

Coach Vern Cotter has gone for a solid experienced side for the opener. Scarlets flanker John Barclay has been reborn down in West Wales and is a welcome returnee after being left out of last year's World Cup squad and has been absent for the past three Six Nations campaigns.

He will win his 46th cap alongside John Hardie and Dave Denton in the new look Scottish back row at Murrayfield.

Glasgow centre Mark Bennett will also be in the starting line-up, having recovered from a shoulder injury and will partner Edinburgh's Matt Scott, with Sean Maitland and Tommy Seymour on the wings and Stuart Hogg continuing at Full Back.

Greig Laidlaw will captain the side with Finn Russell at Outside half – both of whom are able to kick well and will cause considerable pause for thought in an England team, which will need to avoid ill discipline at the break down.

In the pack, the Gray brothers continue in the boiler room with Al Dickinson forming a solid front row with Ross Ford and WP Nell.

The Weather forecast for Murrayfield is for a cold and cloudy day but no rain, which should favour England marginally, but after rain on Thursday and Friday, the pitch will be good to soft and expect a forward dominated battle.

As for England, new Coach Eddie Jones has also been bold and names a formidable side.  Mike Brown has a lot to prove after a disappointing World Cup and with form an exciting back three with bath flyer Anthony Watson and the Exeter express Jack Nowell. Jonathan Joseph returns at Centre to partner Owen Farrell with George Ford at Outside half and I am delighted to see then talented Danny care recalled at scrum half.

In the pack – it’s a dangerous looking front row with Joe Marler, new captain Dylan "Tarzan" Hartley and Dan Cole. Joe Launchbury and George Kruis partner up in the boiler room and Chris Robshaw, Billy Vunipola, and James Haskell in a solid but uninspiring back row.

Three new caps on the bench with Paul Hill and jack Clifford providing forward cover and the exciting Ollie Devoto will also see some game time. The powerful looking bench is made up with Mako Vunipola, Courtney Lawes and Jamie George making up the forwards with Ben Youngs and Alex Goode the other backs.

On paper, England has the strength and the power to win and win comfortably. But matches are not won on paper and I feel if Scotland is ever to make a breakthrough it has to come this season. The Scots will be confident after their much improved World Cup performance and will want to work Irish referee John Lacey to win as many penalties as possible.

A tough game to call.  Both teams have a lot to offer and it should be a tight and exciting encounter. My head says England will be too streetwise and have too much power and experience but my heart says Scotland want this one more. A tight result and I will go with my heart. Scotland win.

Scotland 19 England 16

IRELAND v WALES

And so to the final match and Sunday afternoon in Dublin will see Wales travel to face the Irish at the Aviva Stadium. Wales will want to avoid the catastrophe of their last Six nations match in Dublin when they were out thought and totally out played by Ireland and were asleep at the wheel costing them a Six nations title.

Warren Gatland has gone with form and experience and taken no real risks with a brutal looking team line up. New Zealand born Gareth Anscombe continues at full back in the continued absence of the talismanic Leigh Halfpenny and the lack of match fitness of Liam Williams. Anscombe was solid against both Australia and South Africa in the World Cup but he is playing out of position albeit he has had considerable game time at full back in the Top 15 in his native country. Ireland may see him as a weak link and I expect lots of high balls and Garryowen’s to be heading his way. That could be a mistake as Anscombe is a clever player and can run hard and aggressively as well as kick out of defence. He adds the potential of a 2nd Five Eight to Wales and if gets into the attack, his aggressive flat passing game could cause Ireland some difficult times.

The back three is made up with George North and Tom James who is rightly recalled as the form winger in Wales.  James hasn’t started for Wales since 2010 but is a strong defender and attacker who comes in the game looking for work and offers considerably more than the fading Alex Cuthbert.

In the centres, Wales will be delighted to welcome back Jonathan Davies from his lengthy injury spell on the sidelines, and he will again form a partnership with the granite strewn Jamie Roberts.

Dan Biggar and Gareth Davies continue their World Cup partnership at half backs and if Wales can get their big back line moving it will very difficult to defend against. Biggar in particular looked world class in the World Cup and his growing maturity is adding a new stability and dimension to the Welsh attack.

In the pack, the selection of referee Jerome Garces has led Gatland to forsake Gethin Jenkins and gives Scarlets pair Rob Evans and Samson Lee the prop positions either side of the robust Scott Baldwin. Evans is a player for the future and the next world cup but had a fairly torrid time against Martin Castrogiovanni in Rome last season and Ireland will clearly target him in the scrums.

Elsewhere it’s a familiar pack with the mercurial Alun Wyn Jones and Luke Charters in the second row and with Dan Lydiard’s fitness uncertain, Gatland has gone for two open side flankers with Justin Tipuric partnering Captain Sam Warburton either side of the Taulupe Faletau.

On the bench – Gethin Jenkins, Ken Owens and Tomos Francis are the front row replacements with Bradley Davies and the recovering Dan Lydiate the other forwards. , Lloyd Williams, Rhys Priestland, and Alex Cuthbert cover the back line.

For Ireland, the injury-hit squad has been sweating on the fitness of Rob Kearney and Sean O’Brien. As I go to press, the Irish team has not been announced so any assessment here is based on my best judgment of what team will take the field.

The Irish pack will somewhat of a new look as they face up to a competition without a number of key names though, including a front five missing the injured Cian Healy, Mike Ross, Iain Henderson and the retired Paul O'Connell while the back row will also be without long-term injury victim Peter O'Mahony.

Jack McGrath is the new rock of the Irish pack and will form a front row with new captain Rory Best and I believe Schmidt will go with Connacht’s Nathan White at tight head. I expect Mike McCarthy to be partnering either Devin Toner or Donnacha Ryan in the second-row with some tough choices in the Irish back row. Lots of rumours that Josh Van der Flier and CJ Stander will get the call up for this game where Ireland know they have to stand up physically to Wales.

Behind the scrum, Jonny Sexton and Conor Murray will combine again and I expect Joe Schmidt to pick Ulster’s Stuart McCloskey to partner Jerrod Payne at centre with Andrew Trimble being recalled on the wing.

Referee Jerome Garces will play a critical role in this match. Garces can be very pedantic at times but he is very consistent and unbiased. If the penalty count starts to mount up for any side then it could be a long road back for the team on the receiving end with both Dan Biggar and Jonny Sexton showing metronomic accuracy with the boot on ball.

The kicking game – bother aerial and positional - will be key and Sexton probably has the edge, as he knows every inch of the Aviva Stadium turf.

I expect this game to be a classic and another game hard to call. Wales will start, as favourites but Ireland are notoriously hard to beat at home and will be well disciplined and coached to keep cool heads under pressure.

The game will be won or lost in the forwards and here Wales have a crucial edge. The experience should pay dividends and I expect a very tight battle, which given Six nations history means it probably won’t be.  Being Welsh, I have to go with a Welsh victory but it will be close and nailbitey.

Ireland 19 Wales 23