Just one week to go until Rugby’s greatest event starts in earnest. The World Cup has become such a special part of the rugby program and the 2011 tournament will ask and answer a lot of questions. Can New Zealand finally lose their “All Chokes” tag by winning their first World Cup Since 1987? Will England rise to the challenge again? What about Australia - does their Tri-Nations win set them into a prime position? Let’s take some time to review the Groups and the likely result from the Tournament.
POOL A – New Zealand, France, Tonga, Canada and Japan
New Zealand are clearly the team to beat in Group A. Their recent defeats to South Africa and Australia apart, they have been the team to beat for the past 3 seasons. They will be under the pressure of a nation’s huge expectations but should have little problem in winning Group A. Dan Carter and Richie McCaw remain probably the World’s best players in their positions and the All Blacks look strong everywhere. Expect a comfortable win over France and hammerings for Tonga and Japan. France are the only team that likely to cause an upset for New Zealand but which France will turn up? They looked competent in beating Ireland in the build up games and have a good record in New Zealand. I expect a close game with New Zealand for 60 minutes but a defeat by 10 points at the end. I believe Japan will give France a fright but the Gallic flair should be enough to see them through. Japan suffers from being a Northern Hemisphere side that no one really plays frequently. They have building up a good squad and their recent Pacific Cup victory shows they are no mugs. Expect them to win a lot of friends with fast open play and their World Cup final will be a win over Tonga. Tonga will cause pain everywhere and will beat Canada with ease. They are likely to prop up the group but have the ability to hurt teams and both NZ and France will want to avoid injuries here. I can’t see them beating either of the top two and they will have a good game with Japan but lose. Canada have no chance and will be the group whipping boys. Expect very heavy defeats to New Zealand and France and they will prop up the group with nil points. Likely finish NZ, France, Japan, Tonga, Canada
POOL B – England, Argentina, Scotland, Georgia and Romania
England will be far too strong here and will have little problems in winning their group. England are a confidence team and this easy group will help them to greater things in this tournament. A curate’s egg of a build up with good and bad performances against Wales and a good win in Dublin. They lack flair in the threequarters and Wilkinson and Flood have no real pace but metronomic kicking precision. Manu Tuigali has a lot to prove but his power should give England an extra edge with excellent cover in the back three with Armitage and Foden fighting for full back and Chris Ashton and Mark Cueto firmed ensconced on wings. Up front England will match anyone but their pedestrian back row was shown up against Wales and that weakness will hurt them as tournament progresses. Scotland will give them a tussle up front but England will win comfortably at the end. Expect a cricket score against Romania and an easy win against the Argies but don’t mention the Belgrano. Scotland had an awful six nations and a weak build up but will t least have some confidence seeing off both Ireland and Italy. They should be good enough to see off Argentina and Romania to cling a qtr. final slot. Joe Ansbro is one of the more exciting new threequarters in the British game and Scotland’s pack are no mugs. Richie Gray was outstanding this past season and Scotland has enough power to seem them through. Argentina has an ageing team, which is still suffering (like Japan) from a lack of international challenges. They offered little against Wales and their pack is reaching Dad’s Army status. No repeat of 2007 then with an early trip home for the blue and whites. Georgia could cause some problems with their giant pack, most of who ply their trade in France. In 2007, they were minutes away from humbling Ireland and they will cause some rapid heart rates in Edinburgh and Buenos Aires for sure. They equivalent to world cup final will come with the match up with Romania for the wooden spoon. Romania are finally on their way back to their cold war strength and have shown some progress in just reaching the Tournament. Wooden spoon fro the Bucharest bullies. Likely finish – England, Scotland, Argentina, Georgia, Romania
POOL C – Australia, Ireland, Italy, Russia and USA
Australia had a surprise win in the Tri-nations, which has done a lot to erase the memory of a shocking performance losing to Samoa. In Quade Cooper - they have the world’s best fly half and their scrummage has improved immeasurably since their defeat last season to England. Rocky Elsom will lead the pack and the shock of dropping Matt Giteau will be long forgotten as the convicts reach their stride. No slip-ups expected with easy wins over Ireland and Italy and cricket scores against USA and Russia. Ireland by contrast cannot have any confidence. A terrible build up with 4 straight defeats will not help and Ireland look devoid of confidence. They had a shocker four years ago, and it’s hard to be optimistic about their chances this time. O’Driscoll looks slow and unfit, they look weak at full back and lack pace in the forwards, Moreover they lack confidence and a plan B. They will make the qtr. finals by seeing off Italy but that will be it for the Irish. Italy have had a great six nations but looked off the pace against Scotland. They will have confidence against Ireland after almost winning in the six nations. However, it’s a long way from a sunny Stadio Flaminio with a roaring home crowd to potentially the wet and cold in New Zealand. Parisse will be their main playmaker and do not expect much play outside the forwards. Wins against USA and Russia and third place. Russia and USA will play out the cold war final. The Russian team making their World Cup debut is an unknown quantity. USA has pedigree from Churchill Cup and should see off the red machine. Likely finish – Australia, Ireland, Italy, USA, Russia
POOL D – Wales, South Africa, Fiji, Samoa, Namibia
Every major sports tournament has its “group of death” and this is the one in this World cup. Wales face a tough challenge. They have beaten South Africa once in multiple attempts and looked terribly off the pace last autumn against a South African 2nd team. Wales had a rebuild in the six nations and they have gambled by adding young talent. It took some balls to leave out Martyn Williams but new Captain Sam Warburton looks the shirt and is emerging as a world class talent in a very strong Welsh back row. Wales had two tough tussles against England and showed great defensive guile and fitness. clearly out lasting England in both games. Wales are notorious slow starters and they cannot afford any slip-ups this time. South Africa will punish them of they give them anything like the amount of chance they gave England in Cardiff. Fiji and Samoa have both previously destroyed Welsh hopes and there will be much bottom clenching in both games by the Welsh supporters. Gatland has prepared his team well and I feel they will be the surprise team of the tournament. I feel Wales will turn over South Africa and scrape home against Fiji with easier passage against Samoa and a big win for the 2nd team against Namibia. Wales to top the pool. South Africa have shown no form and have called back a number of veterans to see them through this World Cup. A very poor tri nations with just a solitary win against New Zealand’s reserves won’t help and they lack pace with a badly ageing team. Morne Steyn is critical for the Boks but I feel they fall to the Welsh and finish in 2nd place. Fiji are not the force of previous years and their recent defeat to Japan was a shock. They will finish third with a win over Samoa and over Namibia. Expect the usual brutal defence and fabulous back play but third place. Samoa are definitely not the team of the past and the constant stripping of talent by New Zealand is taking its toll. A poor Pacific cup will give no real confidence and other than brutal tackling they will offer nothing to this tournament. Likely finish – Wales, South Africa, Fiji, Samoa, Namibia
Quarter Finals
Australia v South Africa – Australia have far too much power and flair to lose. Convicts to progress
England v France – England have a great record and will see off another Gallic challenge
Wales v Ireland – The Irish have a fantastic record against Wales but when the welsh believe in themselves they have real momentum. Close but Wales will win by at least 10 points.
New Zealand v Scotland – only one winner – All Blacks to proceed.
Semi Finals
Australia v England – England have an outstanding record against Australia especially in World Cups. However, this Aussie team has real flair in its back line and a good back row. Goal kicks will be critical but Australia will have just too much power this time.
New Zealand v Wales – the Welsh will have done outstandingly well to reach the semi. They haven’t beaten New Zealand since 1953 and that isn’t going to change this time although Wales will be close until last 20 minutes. All blacks win by 10 points and onto Final
Final
Australia vs New Zealand. A titanic finale then with an all-antipodean final. New Zealand will be under huge pressure and will fumble and allow Australia an early lead. The Aussies will turn the crew but All Black power will be too much and the New Zealand will triumph but only just. 3-4 point gap.
