2017 Six Nations Week 2 – Now we’re getting warm…

2017 Six Nations Week 2 – Now we’re getting warm…

So the opening weekend of 2017 Six Nations action saw three cracking contests and competitive rugby between all six teams. Scotland finally came of age with a narrow victory over an Ireland team which will rue the missed opportunities. England wobbled but overcame a gallant and reborn French challenge and Wales ground out a good win in Rome despite an absolutely dire first 40-minute performance. The new bonus point system for scoring four tries did not come into play as no team managed that feat although France and Ireland both picked up losing bonus points. 
Both Wales and Scotland had opportunities to gain the critical bonus’s and their failure to execute could come back to haunt both of them in a tight championship finish.
Let’s review this weekend’s matches with your correspondent’s overview and predictions:

ITALY v IRELAND

The battle of the first-round losers will open the weekend with a 2:25pm kick off in Rome. Italy will take heart from their first half performance against Wales and Ireland’s unconvincing pack performance in Murrayfield will give them confidence as we go into their second home fixture. The two sides have met 26 times before, with Italy winning just four of those, the last coming back in 2013 at the Stadio Olimpico. 

Italy head coach Conor O'Shea has made four changes to the side that was beaten last weekend on home turf by Wales, with three of those coming in the pack. Simone Favaro returns to openside flanker having missed the opening round loss in place of Abraham Steyn, while Leonardo Ghiraldini starts at hooker for Ornel Gega.

Both Steyn and Gega drop to the bench, as does George Biagi with Andries van Schalkwyk preferred in the second row.

In the back line, Angelo Esposito comes in on the right wing for Giulio Bisegni, while on the opposite flank Giovanbattista Venditti will reach 40 caps for the Azzurri. Edoardo Gori and Carlo Canna are retained in the half-back positions, as are Tommaso Benvenuti and Luke Mclean in the midfield - with Michele Campagnaro once again having to make do with a spot on the bench which is puzzling.

Captain Sergio Parisse has been an injury concern all week for the Azzurri and he underwent an MRI scan this week for neck trauma sustained in the second half against Wales. He is named at No.8 and O’Shea will be no doubt visiting the Vatican this week prior to the game to ask for divine intervention on his fitness.

There hasn't been a more influential number eight when it comes to punting and handicap lines since Dean Richards' presence for Leicester in the 80s and 90s. Parisse's importance was underlined when Italy beat South Africa 20-18 in the autumn, only for Tonga to turn them over the following week when he was on the side lines.

But even Parisse couldn't gather his troops after a solid defensive effort and a try from a rolling maul in the first half against Wales, which saw them go in 7-3 up at the break. In fact, he began to lose the plot and the referee threatened him with a red card at one point such was his constant bleating about the decisions.

Conor O’Shea will also be concerned about Italy’s overall fitness and their failure to add a single point in the second half in Rome. They still seem to be competitive for only 60 minutes and he will be looking for forward dominance in the scrum and maul to drain the Irish defence which is currently leaking an average of three tries per match. 

Ireland will look back with horror at the possession statistics from Murrayfield and their weak defensive performance leaking three tries to Scotland. Ireland 58% possession and spent 59% of the opening stanza in Scotland territory in the opening 40 minutes in Murrayfield but failed to capitalise but were ripped apart by the attacking guile of Stuart Hogg and the attitude and never say die approach of the Highlanders.  

The main thing that went wrong for Ireland at Murrayfield was that their offense play was often uninspiring and predictable, with very few proper line breaks and depended heavily on the big ball carriers to punch holes. It was rather like watching Wales play in Green Jerseys at times. Ringrose and Henshaw were toothless and Rob Kearney failed to make his usual attacking contribution. 

Tommy Bowe is an irish legend, but his best days are over. With all the exciting talent available – especially with so many Irish qualified backs playing with their provinces, I am not sure why Joe Schmidt cannot start building a backline that can worry the other nations.

Coach Joe Schmidt will be looking for far better against Italy and has swung the axe making several changes to his match day 23.

There are three changes to the starting XV. Cian Healy and Donnacha Ryan have both been recalled for Saturday's clash at the Stadio Olimpico. Healy comes in to make his first Six Nations start since the Championship-winning game against Scotland in Murrayfield in 2015.

Elsewhere Donncha Ryan, who has recovered from a knee injury replaces Iain Henderson who drops out of the match day 23 through injury. Jack McGrath is dropped to the replacements to make way for his Leinster team-mate.
Ireland’s failure to dominate a weakened Scottish front row was a major surprise and is more than likely the reason for Healy’s recall. I was more concerned about Ireland’s back row performance. Sean O’Brien made an impressive return but CJ Stander was rather anonymous and No.8 Jamie Heaslip was extremely disappointing and absent at key moments in the match losing possession on several occasions.  

Tommy Bowe has been released from the Ireland squad for Ulster's Pro12 clash with Edinburgh, as a result Craig Gilroy comes in on the bench. 

Paddy Jackson had a solid game but uninspiring game against Scotland and was proven correct in my feeling that the loss of Jonny Sexton and Peter O’Mahoney would have a big impact on that first match. Both players remain with dubious match fitness and neither player has been risked for the trip to Rome, but both should be available for the game with France in a fortnight. 

There were calls in Ireland for a significant rebuild of the team but it is largely a case of same old, same old from Joe Schmidt. The team should have enough attacking capability to get a Bonus Point from the Italians, but I fear they may struggle against the French. Schmidt’s selection is too conservative and safety first in my view. There was the chance to get some younger players in for the big game experience to build for the World Cup in Japan but he's stayed conservative after last defeat.

I expect Ireland to bounce back with some style in Rome. The forecast is better than the rain which blighted last Sunday’s encounter and Ireland will want to avoid the forward grind and use their backs to use their creativity and penetrate a leaky Italian defence. 

I really was disappointed with Italy's attitude from a winning position last Saturday. If Ireland, who have made two uncontroversial changes in the pack at prop and lock, cut loose early this could get very messy, very quickly.
Italy clearly were well in the game at the interval, but Wales had been so dire that you sensed it was only a matter of time before the visitors found their stride and a shocking Italian penalty count enabled Leigh Halfpenny to nudge them 12-7 in front going into the final quarter before three converted tries saw them coast home 33-7.

Wales were poor but if that match had gone on for another 10 minutes, then they would have won by 50, not 26, and that spells trouble for the Azzurri this Saturday.

They have always been a hit-and-miss side, but they don't tend to react well when losing from winning positions - and there is little doubt they felt the ref was against them last week - and last season's results in this competition hammers that home.

They should have beaten France away in their opening game instead of losing 23-21 and in the next game they got humped 40-9 at home by England, followed by another three dismissals, including a 56-15 loss in Dublin.

And, for all Ireland would have been very disappointed by their Murrayfield loss, there is no better way to get back on the horse than playing a downbeat Italy. I only see one winner and the concerns over Parisse only add to that feeling. Ireland to make hay and a comfortable victory.

ITALY 6 IRELAND 40


WALES v ENGLAND

Both Wales and England recorded opening day victories but neither coaching team will be happy with their team performances. Wales were simply dire in the opening 40 minutes before finally putting Italy to the sword with 30 unanswered points in the second stanza. 

England were caught unawares by the battling French and spent large periods of the game in catch up. The traditional French failing of giving away soft penalties finally told and England can breathe a sigh of relief as the victory and look forward to the short trip down the M4 to Cardiff.

Coach Robert Howley made some dreadful selection howlers against Italy with the wrong front row for the gruelling encounter with the wily and talented Italian pack. Wales dominated possession for the first 20 minutes and were camped in the Italian 22 but failed to make the pressure count in the red zone and came away with nothing.

The half time injury to Dan Biggar gave young flyer Sam Davies some game time but the critical change in the game came with the change of props. Wales were able to shore up their scrum and protect their possession from the set piece and set up the platform for victory.

Wales will have not kidded themselves that they played well in victory last Sunday and, like Italy, they also have a six-day turnaround to contend with when they host England. It’s no surprise then to see Howley make just three changes to his match day squad for the crucial encounter against England.  Wales will start with those replacement props Rob Evans and Tomas Francis with No.8 Taulupe Faletau, who has not played any rugby in 2017, named among the replacements.

Evans and Francis join Ken Owens in the front-row with aggressive 2nd row Jake Ball retained with and skipper Alun Wyn Jones in the second-row. Sam Warburton, Justin Tipuric and Ross Moriarty make up the back-row. 
Warburton was outstanding against Italy and Wales stay with the model of playing two open side flankers against an English back row who lacked depth against France. Ross Moriarty also impressed although seemed to run out of steam during the second half so having Faletau available as an option is good news for the Dragons.

After late fitness tests on Thursday morning, Howley was able to name an unchanged backline with fly half Dan Biggar and wing George North recovering from knocks to start in Cardiff.

Rhys Webb is retained at scrum half and Scarlets duo Scott Williams and Jonathan Davies continue in the midfield with Liam Williams, George North and Leigh Halfpenny comprising a dangerous back three with Halfpenny another who was right back to form in Rome.

Nicky Smith and Samson Lee, the starting props in Rome, drop to the bench alongside Faletau, hoping for his first action since suffering a knee injury playing for his club Bath on Christmas eve.

Hooker Scott Baldwin and Newport Gwent Dragon Cory Hill completing the forward contingent. The back-line cover remains the same from Rome in Gareth Davies, Sam Davies and Jamie Roberts.

England were strangely overawed against France. The breakdown was a major area of concern and the experiment of playing Itoje at flanker was unconvincing with England’s back row trio lacking energy and application. 

Coach Eddie Jones has been likened this week by Welsh defensive guru Shaun Edwards to the late great Brian Clough and he has been playing down the Cardiff factor all week as he seeks to get his English Six Nations challenge back on the rails with a stronger all round display against Wales.

England will enter a hostile Principality Stadium with another rookie back row after naming Jack Clifford in place of Tom Wood for Saturday's brutal and critical encounter. Clifford has recovered from a chest injury to make his first international appearance since last summer's tour to Australia and is chosen ahead of the vastly more experienced Wood, who has demoted to the bench. Personally, I thought Wood was very poor against France with poor discipline and ball retention being amongst the many sins in an error strewn performance. 

In the only other change to the starting XV that dispatched France 19-16 last Saturday, Jack Nowell is picked on the right wing in a move that sees Jonny May also relegated to a spot among the replacements. Nowell returns to the starting line-up for the first time since the summer tour to Australia having missed the autumn internationals through injury.

Gloucester flyer May, who was shown a yellow card against France, hasn't scored a try in his eight RBS 6 Nations appearances to date with Jones moving him to the "finisher" role off the bench.

The biggest talking point is in the back row, however, with England facing a potentially all-British and Irish Lions Welsh trio with Clifford, Maro Itoje and Nathan Hughes. Hughes was another who was unimpressive against Louis Picamoles and the entire back row have only four back-row starts between them.

There has been considerable coverage in the press and online media of the changes made by Eddie Jones during the game against France with England behind for much of the 80 minutes at Twickenham.

Eddie Jones has resisted any temptation to bring the likes of James Haskell, Danny Care or Ben Te'o into the starting XV after they impressed late-on against Les Bleus. T’eo in particular caught my eye and looks like a real talent!

Haskell is still returning from his recent toe injury and the England head coach will hope that his replacements can have a similar impact against Wales.
The game will come down to discipline and possession. Wales will need a solid platform from scrum, line out and break down if they are to challenge England. I would have liked to see Sam Davies start but otherwise it is a solid looking Welsh line up.

They really need to inject some pace, tempo and rhythm to their play from the start - as well as making their tackles - otherwise even a shorn England will suffocate them. Their pack is never going to frighten anyone - though their back row has pace, which is why England have replaced Tom Wood with Jack Clifford - so their back-line really needs to step up to the plate.

But you do sense that this is the time be playing England, who themselves looked way off the pace against France. They clearly missed the Vunipola brothers going forward - and Chris Robshaw when it got down and dirty in ball-slowing defence stakes - and leaving the X-factor of Jack Nowell on the bench there was clearly a mistake. It is no surprise that the elusive Nowell starts on Saturday.

England do look vulnerable at the moment to a side who can attack them with pace and precision - if they were playing Ireland in Dublin this week I'd go all-in on the home side - but it's just a matter of whether you can see Wales providing that oomph and dynamism.

For England, I would have liked to see Danny care start the match as I think he gives England a faster platform but the form of Dylan Hartley is a real worry and Jamie George has looked far more assured when he has entered the fray.  Mike Brown is another who lacked penetration at Twickenham and drops down the Lions pecking order with Hogg and Halfpenny the two to choose right now.
Expect all the fervour and passion this fixture always brings but encounters between the two giants at Cardiff are usually close with the last game in 2015 leading to a narrow England victory. Both teams have lethal goal kickers and the result is too close to call. 

Sadly, I feel England have the stronger bench and if Wales play like they did in that first half in Rome then I fear a hammering could be on the cards. At the end my head has to rule my heart and an England victory but not by much.

Wales 23 England 27

FRANCE v SCOTLAND

France will take heart from their stronger showing against England last week but once again failed to gain a victory and they will be disappointed they have been unable to make the breakthrough. Les Bleus at times seemed to lack clarity in attack in the opposing red zone - it seems that many times the easiest way to score is beyond the mentality and belief of the players. 

Given France’s spirited performance in “Le Crunch”, France coach Guy Noves has elected to make one just change for the visit of Scotland in their second Six Nations tussle in Paris on Sunday.

Noves has gone for stability keeping 14 of the same starting XV, with just two replacements being switched out too. Loann Goujon is the fresh face at the Stade de France, packing down in the back row alongside Kevin Gourdon and Louis Picamoles in a bid for their first Six Nations win of the season. He replaces Damien Chouly who is among the replacements.

With a forward battle potentially pivotal, the Bordeaux-Begles man will be looking to add some much-needed strength, as well as using his experience of ten RBS 6 Nations caps.

Indeed it was against Scotland whom Goujon made his international debut against two years ago, with all but four of his caps coming in the Championship.

And the 28-year-old will be looking to restore an impressive head-to-head record his side possess against Vern Cotter's side, victorious in ten previous encounters before Scotland's victory at BT Murrayfield, 29-18 in last year's Championship.

On the replacements bench, Christopher Tolofua takes the place of Clément Maynadier at hooker, while second rower Julien Le Devedec takes the spot of Arthur Iturria.

I was very impressed with Baptiste Serin at scrum half who looked assured and controlled and ran the French attacks with aplomb. Scott Spedding was once again impressive at full back and the Fijian backs Nakaitaci and Vakatowa looked very dangerous every time they saw the ball. 

Scotland surpassed all expectations in that opening 30 minutes against Ireland. The most obvious positives aspects of their game plan were evident when they kicked their goals under pressure; their invention with ball in hand, and that line-out move, but equally impressive was the way they sorted out their scrum after a shaky start, disrupted Ireland ball at the line-out and really gathered themselves to nail the game late on.

Sure, it had its faults but it was as impressive as we had a right to expect from the underdogs. This weekend’s encounter in Paris is another matter though Scotland haven't won in France since that memorable 36-22 romp in 1999, a match in which they scored five first-half tries. 

As my publishing deadline approaches, the Scotland team still hasn’t been announced. Their chance of easing that pain is improved with that win last weekend and Vern Cotter has some critical decisions to make if they are to overcome a resurgent Les Bleus outfit.

I don’t see many changes to the starting line-up but Cotter may be tempted to bring back Ross Ford at hooker. Ford has been very effective in servicing the two Gray brothers at the line out and good as Frazer Brown is, Ford’s 19 tackle contribution against Ireland will be recognised and could be enough to push him into the starting XV.

Elsewhere, Cotter may be tempted to tinker with the back row. In Louis Picamoles, France have perhaps the world's best ball-carrying No 8, his 131 metres last week against England took the breath away. Cotter must decide whether he intends to fight fire with fire, and add to his defensive capabilities in the back-row.

John Barclay is an openside by trade and has been in outstanding form for the Scarlets. He could just be the man to get in Picamoles' face, but on the other hand, Cotter may not wish to lose the cut and thrust that Glasgow Warrior Josh Strauss provides from the base.

Kevin Gourdon and Hamish Watson are nicely matched, while Ryan Wilson is in fine form and a relentless tackler that will help to tie up Northampton's Picamoles.

Any good back row is always a balancing act and Cotter must decide how to weigh his out for a shot at history in Paris.

Scotland’s poor record in Paris clearly counts against them but most encounters against Les Bleus have been tight and Bizarrely, seven points has been the French winning margin on the last two occasions these sides have met in Paris. Scotland must have gained a lot of confidence from that Ireland win and they have the squad to mix it with any side in this tournament.

The point about the Ireland game, however, was that for the first time the hard luck stories were replaced by a driving determination to hang on to their lead and inspired by the kicking and tactical acumen of Greig Laidlaw and the ferocious tackling of 22-year-old Jonny Gray they closed out the win.

Vern Cotter, who spent 20 years of his career playing and coaching in France, has been identifying the weaknesses in a French pack which is powerful, heavy, but ponderously slow. And he can now produce a game plan with the confidence that his players have the mentality to stick to it. Perhaps now they have the belief, too. 

Again a very tough game to call but this French team has more steel than we have seen for many seasons and they will not want to disappoint at home.

Expect a tight game and both teams pushing for victory. France to win by one score.

France 20 Scotland 16