We reach the half way point of the 2023 Guinness Six Nations with Ireland and Scotland showing their calls and retaining 100% records. Ireland were ruthless and unrelenting in smashing France whilst Scotland showed the Calcutta Cup win was no fluke with a comfortable win over beleaguered Wales.
England bounced back to defeat Italy by 31-14 - the exact score accurately predicted by your correspondent.
Wales sank to a new low after their record home defeat to Ireland with an another record defeat in Edinburgh.
With 5 predictions correct from the first six matches - lets look forward to this weekend’s encounters.
Italy v Ireland
Ireland will be looking to march on towards a possible Grand Slam title when the Six Nations returns in Rome on Saturday.
Andy Farrell's side conquered France in a potential title decider before the fallow week, whereas hosts Italy suffered a second straight defeat at the hands of England.The odds are stacked against the home side, yet they will have taken encouraging signs from both of their defeats so far.
In Round 1, the loss to France saw them in the lead heading into the final 20 minutes, and then squander late penalties which could have nudged them back in front of the defending champions for what would have been a famous victory. A trip to Twickenham one week later was not quite as closely-fought as England avoided a banana skin thanks largely to their 19 unanswered points in the first half.
Nonetheless, the Azzurri once again looked dangerous at times and, on another day, made have had more than the two tries they managed having beaten 41 defenders over the course of the 80 minutes - by far their highest figure in any Six Nations match.
Indeed, the 28 defenders beaten in the second half alone was just one short of the previous full-match record set against Scotland last year, so there is a very real threat from Italy when they have the ball in hand.
Such encouragement from losing efforts will only last so long if they keep on losing, though, and while few will be expecting them to pick up their first victory against the world's top-ranked side on Saturday, next month's home meeting with Wales - who they memorably beat last year - looks increasingly like a Wooden Spoon decider.
From statistically the toughest test of this year's tournament to the easiest, Andy Farrell will nonetheless demand the same level of performance from his side as that which they produced against France in their last outing.
Appropriately billed as a probable title decider, with the favourites and world number one side taking on the defending Grand Slam champions and world number two, Ireland stepped up to the plate with a thrilling 32-19 victory in Dublin earlier this month.
The result was Ireland's biggest win over France in the Five or Six Nations since 1975, only the third time that they had run in four tries against Les Bleus for a bonus point in the Six Nations era, and their 13th successive home win, ending France's record 14-match winning run in the process.
That said, Garry Ringrose's try in the 71st minute gave the final score a slightly more one-sided look than the reality of the game, with both sides producing a Six Nations classic that hung in the balance for the vast majority of the 80.
Indeed, only one game in Six Nations history has seen more metres gained in total than the 1,334 that the world's top two sides managed in Dublin, with France's showdown with England in 2015 just about retaining its crown.
It is the French Six Nations crown which Farrell and his players have their eyes on now, though, and it would be an enormous shock if they did not continue their march towards it this weekend.
Ireland will be without their talismanic captain Johnny Sexton as he continues to recover from the groin injury he sustained against France last time out.
James Ryan will captain his country in the absence of Sexton, who still needs only eight points to surpass his predecessor Ronan O'Gara as the leading points scorer in Six Nations history, while Ross Byrne comes in at 10.
That is one of six changes made by Farrell as he rotates his squad for the trip to Rome, with Craig Casey coming in at scrum-half and Bundee Aki replacing Stuart McCloskey at inside centre.
The three changes in the forwards see Ronan Kelleher start at hooker, Iain Henderson feature in the second row and Jack Conan come in at number eight.
Tadhg Beirne has been ruled out for the remainder of the tournament, while Conan's introduction will see Peter O'Mahony drop to the bench and Caelan Doris shift to the blindside.
There are also a trio of new faces amongst the replacements, with Dan Sheehan, Ryan Baird and potential Six Nations debutant Jack Crowley all coming in to the matchday squad.
Italy have made three changes to their starting XV for this match, with Tommaso Allan one of those to drop to the bench as Paolo Garbisi returns at fly-half.
The Montpellier man returned from a sprained knee ligament to feature for his club last week, and is thrown straight back into the Italy side for this one.
Pierre Bruno also comes back in on the wing, with Luca Morisi dropping to the bench and Tommaso Menoncello moving inside to 12.
The only change in the pack sees Simone Ferrari return in place of Marco Riccioni at tighthead, while on the bench Giovanni Pettinelli comes in for the injured Jake Polledri.
Italy have only ever beaten Ireland once in the Six Nations, and that came a decade ago when they ran out 22-15 winners at the Stadio Olimpico.
The other 22 meetings have all gone the way of Ireland, including each of the last nine, and on seven of those nine occasions Ireland have put more than 45 points on the board.
That was true when they met at the Aviva Stadium last year too as Farrell's men ran in nine tries en route to a 57-6 triumph, while their last visit to Rome saw them win 48-10 in 2021.
Across their all-time history, Ireland have won 30 of the 34 meetings, with Italy taking the remaining four.
With all of the attacking talent on show, this should be an entertaining game - unless, of course, you are an Italy fan. The home side should take confidence from elements of their showings against France and England, but Ireland are another step up from those two again and, unlike on week one, their opponents have now had time to gel and get accustomed to each other.
Italy are not a team anyone will risk underestimating this year, but Saturday's match should be a fairly straightforward win for the favourites.
Italy 10-48 Ireland
Wales v England
It’s been a tumultuous week in Wales with the sword of Damocles being held over the Worst Run Union with the nuclear option of a players strike risking the postponement of the game against England. Only last minute back peddling and intense discussions have found a temporary solution to the players grievances and the game is now formally back on.
It was sad to be in this situation but we’ve been here before. In 2019, Wales Six Nations campaign was massively disrupted by the announcement of team mergers with “Project Reset”. Now just 4 years later - nothing has been learned and the same old narrow self interests exist to tarnish and damage the game in Wales.
The tumult and turmoil off the pitch in Welsh rugby has so far been mirrored on it in the Six Nations, though, with Warren Gatland's side losing their opening two matches, whereas England picked up their first win of the Steve Borthwick era at the expense of Italy last time out.
Branded a "laughing stock" by their own captain Ken Owens due to the disarray behind the scenes at the WRU of late, Wales will hope to be able to shift their focus firmly back to the rugby when they welcome their neighbours England to the Principality Stadium.
Allegations of sexism, racism and misogyny within Welsh rugby's governing body had already seen Gatland's second stint as boss get off to an inauspicious start, before the payment row between the WRU and the players became the latest off-field soap opera to overshadow a proud nation's national sport.
With both issues now having been solved or at least addressed, Gatland will be desperate to focus on matters on the pitch, with his side not faring too well on that front either.
Had the threatened strike gone ahead then Wales would have been left with zero points after three games, with the 2021 Grand Slam champions not just winless so far, but also pointless having failed to pick up a bonus point in either match.
That leaves them propping up the table after two games, with the fewest points scored, the most points against, the fewest tries scored and the joint-most tries conceded in this year's competition so far.
The fact that they are playing this game means that they will at least have the chance to improve those worrying statistics, although the away game against Italy in Rome next up is already looming large as a possible Wooden Spoon decider.
Defeat to Ireland on the opening weekend was largely expected, even factoring in the return of the competition's most successful coach in Gatland, but their loss to Scotland last time out would have stung particularly badly.
Wales had snuffed out positive Scottish starts to the Six Nations in both of the previous two years under Wayne Pivac, but this time around they succumbed to their biggest-ever Test defeat at the hands of their northern neighbours.
Owens scored Wales' only try as they were well beaten and, while two Scottish tries in the final 10 minutes added gloss to the eventual 35-7 scoreline for the hosts, it was a miserable Murrayfield experience for the visitors as they opened a Six Nations campaign with back-to-back defeats for the first time since 2007.
In addition to shipping points too freely, Wales have also been particularly wasteful in attack, averaging less than one point per entry into the 22 in both of their games so far.
On the bright side, they face an English team that has looked alarmingly open in defence and susceptible to teams running at them with the ball in hand.
Duhan van der Merwe's stunning solo try in the defeat to Scotland at Twickenham in Round 1 was the clearest example of this, but England also missed a whopping 41 tackles in their win over Italy last time out - their highest-ever tally in a Six Nations match.
New defence coach Kevin Sinfield has no doubt been working overtime on that issue during the two-week break between matches, but head coach Steve Borthwick does at least have a first win under his belt courtesy of that bonus-point 34-14 home triumph over a potential banana skin in Italy.
Most of the damage was done in the first half as England scored 19 unanswered points before the interval, and while Borthwick will be the first to admit that there is more to come from his side, they are at least now on the board in the Six Nations and sit third - above defending champions France - heading into game three.
England head coach Steve Borthwick has made one change to his starting line-up that downed Italy 31-14 last time out, with Anthony Watson starting on the wing while Courtney Lawes is set to make his international return off the bench.
Towering full-back Freddie Steward retains his place in the back-three, as does Max Malins, with Watson looking to add some X-factor on the left wing.
Ollie Lawrence is rewarded with another start after a blockbuster performance against Italy and continues his midfield partnership with the experienced Henry Slade.
Skipper Owen Farrell is preferred to Marcus Smith at fly-half again the week and will look to build on his half-back combinations with Jack van Poortvliet.
There are no changes to the forward pack, with Alex Dombrandt continuing at number eight alongside Lewis Ludlam and Jack Willis, who shone against Italy in the back-row.
Ollie Chessum gets another start alongside the rock-solid Maro Itoje in the second-row while Ellis Genge, Jamie George and Kyle Sinckler look to perform in another good front-row performance.
Mako Vunipola and Dan Cole join hooker Jack Walker as front-row options for Borthwick, whilst both Lawes and Ben Curry come onto the bench as attractive forward replacements.
Smith remains on the bench this week alongside scrum-half Alex Mitchell and the exciting Henry Arundell for the Cardiff Test.
Wales have brought back several experienced players for their Six Nations game against England with 9 changes to the team who failed in Murrayfield.
Warren Gatland has selected an experienced outfit with Leigh Halfpenny, Taulupe Faletau, Justin Tipuric and Alun Wyn Jones returning to the starting XV.
Louis Rees-Zammit is also back after recovering from injury and he partners Halfpenny and Josh Adams in the back three.
I am excited by his choice of centre combination as Joe Hawkins is joined by Mason Grady, who is making his Test debut. Grady is a superb talent following his brother Cory Allen to win a test cap.
At half-back, Dan Biggar has correctly been dropped to the bench, which means Owen Williams comes in and is alongside Tomos Williams. Biggar has been so poor in the past two matches he had to go. Picking Owen Williams is a real gamble though as none of his previous 3 caps has been at outside half.
Up front, Wales have gone for the front five which started their first Six Nations clash against Ireland as Ken Owens is partnered by Gareth Thomas and Tomas Francis in the front-row, while Adam Beard and Jones are at lock.
The back row sees Christ Tshiunza continue at blindside after impressing against Scotland, but there is no Jac Morgan, who is out of the 23.
Tipuric takes his place on the openside and Faletau is back at number eight, while Tommy Reffell provides back-row cover on the bench.
Reffell is joined among the replacements by Bradley Roberts, Rhys Carre, Dillon Lewis, Dafydd Jenkins, Kieran Hardy, Biggar and Nick Tompkins.
Another victory over Wales this weekend would keep their hopes alive of ending Borthwick's maiden campaign with the trophy, particularly with matches against the two pre-tournament favourites France and Ireland to finish their campaign.
It would take some effort to topple the world's top-two ranked sides in succession, particularly with their final match coming away to Ireland in Dublin, but victory this weekend would at least keep them in the mix heading into the second week off.
Victories in Cardiff have not been easy to come by for England in recent years, though, so even with Wales embroiled in so many off-field troubles, Saturday's contest will be far from straightforward for Borthwick's men.
England are looking for their first win in Cardiff since 2017, having lost on their two visits to the Principality Stadium - the most recent of which saw them well beaten 40-24.
Eddie Jones's side did get revenge for that loss by winning 23-19 at Twickenham last season, though, when Alex Dombrandt scored the match-winning try.
In total, England have won 15 of the 23 Six Nations meetings between the two sides, but at the Principality Stadium they have only won six of their 14 visits, losing the other eight.
Across their all-time head-to-head record, England edge the victories 66 to 60, with 12 draws in that time too.
We may be two games into this season's tournament, but major question marks still hang over both teams. Will Wales improve now that the off-field issues are hopefully behind them? Can England's victory over Italy be used as a true measuring stick?
Wales winger Rees-Zammit will be licking his lips at some of England's defending so far in this tournament and he could do some damage on Saturday, but it is also impossible to ignore the fact that Wales are bottom of the pile in just about every scoring stat which matters so far.
It should be a great tussle between the two old rivals, but ultimately I am backing England to come out on top.
Wales 24 England 31
France v Scotland
Gregor Townsend’s Scottish charges have been the surprise package of the Six Nations so far. It shouldn’t be the case, considering the talent they have in the squad, but their incredible ability to disappoint when backed to perform has been the bane of Scottish rugby.
It appeared as though that would once again rear its ugly head in the opening round against England but, as the game reached its crucial stages, there was a different look to the team.
They showed remarkable composure to soak up the pressure and then land the killer blow with a fabulous team score, resulting in a 29-23 triumph. At the final whistle there were joyous scenes but it was certainly more muted this year, knowing that they have not backed up these big results in the past. There seems to have been a positive mentality shift within the squad and that was demonstrated by their dismantling of Wales a week later.
Nevertheless, those challenges pale in comparison to what awaits in Paris this weekend. France may not be at the level they were last year, but they still have the power and the talent to blow Scotland away on Sunday. The task facing the Bravehearts is pretty daunting. France have won 5 of their last 6 matches and their 10 home matches.
More significantly – they have won 12 of their last 13 home matches against Scotland but Scotland did win their last away match against France. Scotland were superb in their 29-23 win over England in round one. They were arguably even better, thrashing Wales 35-7 in round two. While the match was tight for large periods, Scotland always looked in control and that dominance came to the fore in the final 20 minutes.
It will be a significant test for the visitors but, if they can come through this, Townsend’s charges can dare to dream of a first Six Nations title and, potentially, a Grand Slam.
While Scotland look a better side this year, they are also boosted by the form of the French, who have gradually declined since their Grand Slam success last year. Although they won all three Autumn Nations Series encounters in 2022, none of the performances were exactly convincing. All good sides can have dips so it did not leave us concerned, but their efforts so far in the 2023 Six Nations certainly has.
France are fourth on the Six Nations table with one win and one defeat. As the defending champions this is basically a final if they want to retain any hope of defending the Six Nations.
While France are still a very strong side, they have not been at their best recently. Ranked No.2 in the world behind Ireland, France will still hope they can win their remaining games and someone can beat Ireland.
Obviously, discipline was an issue against Italy and that disrupted their game, but they aren’t quite getting the purchase in either set-piece or carry at the moment. They almost look ‘underpowered’, which is odd to say about a XV full of quality athletes, and are therefore unable to dominate the gain line. There is still plenty of time to go until the World Cup but they need to start putting the pieces in place ahead of their home tournament.
They were better against Ireland but it always felt like Andy Farrell’s men were in control, despite the odd moments of brilliance from the likes of Damian Penaud and Antoine Dupont. It is not time to panic for Les Bleus – far from it – but now would be a good moment for them to get it together and show their supporters they are moving in the right direction. If not, and Scotland claim a victory in Paris, the pressure will begin to ramp up.
There is plenty of history behind this fixture, dating back to Scotland and France’s first encounter in 1910 (a 27 – 0 win for the dark blues at Inverleith) with their first clash in Paris coming a year later (a 16 – 15 triumph for Les Bleus. This match will be the 100th meeting of the Auld Alliance.
France definitely hold the advantage with 57 wins to Scotland’s 39 – plus 3 draws. It’s notable that much of the Scots’ success was front-loaded, with 31 of their triumphs arriving in the amateur era.
Since 2016 though, Scotland have managed 5 wins against the French (from 10 attempts). That’s the same number of victories that they had managed in the previous 26 years (28 matches). Significantly, four of those successes have arrived during the Townsend era.
Townsend makes juts one change to the team, that humiliated Wales. Flanker Hamish Watson replaces Luke Crosbie. Watson is back to full fitness after a concussion against New Zealand.
Crosbie is not on the bench, with Sam Skinner drafted in as one of six forward replacements - and that means no place in the 23 for Chris Harris.
Scrum-half Ali Price returns to the matchday squad having missed out on the wins against England and Wales.
Defending champions France beat Italy in their opener but were then defeated by Ireland in round two of the championship.
Scotland are unchanged in the back division once more with Ben White and Finn Russell poised to continue at half-back.
Sione Tuipulotu and Huw Jones resume their centre partnership while Stuart Hogg has recovered from a head injury assessment following the victory over Wales to start at full-back.
The returning Watson will line up with captain Jamie Ritchie and Matt Fagerson in the back row.
The France team is not available as we go to press but Jonathan Danty could return for France after missing the first two rounds of the tournament due to injury. France will be without Uini Atonio, who has been three weeks for an illegal tackle during the defeat to Ireland last time out.
It feels like there are almost two different French sides playing. On one hand, there is the loose, expansive team that can supply tries from anywhere, such as the worldie by Damian Penaud off the back of one loose kick by Ireland in Dublin. If the French identify a disjointed opposition line and they think it’s on then they will attack from anywhere – 23 offloads (the most in this year’s Six Nations) attest to that.
On the other hand, there is the Shaun Edwards coached, none shall pass (except maybe the Irish), regimented defence built on hard work rather than talent that is undoubtedly the foundation of the side’s philosophy. When they have possession if they don’t like the look of the opposition defence; if their structure isn’t in place; if they’ve gone three phases and not progressed – the ball will be put in the air and there is an expectation that their own defensive prowess can win the ball back in a more advantageous position or unstructured situation.
France are superb at home and Scotland are in great form. This should be a cracking battle, but while I believe France will have enough for the win, I feel that Scotland can get within a single score but not enough to triumph.
France 27 Scotland 19
