SIX NATIONS PREVIEW 2015 – LET BATTLE COMMENCE

The 2015 Six Nations tournament is just a week away (yes really) and this year’s competition is even spicier than usual given there is less than eight months until the 2015 Rugby World Cup.

It’s going to an interesting competition with a shiny new Trophy for the winners. It represents perhaps the last chance for any of the coaches to blood inexperienced new caps and to have some decisions on possible squad selections and positional line ups before the big World Cup kick off on 18^th September at Twickenham.

I have spent a long time this winter watching and analyzing players and coaching performances from both the summer tours and autumn internationals. The one thing that is clear is Rugby is becoming an ever more physical and brutal game. The injury lists of all of the Six nations make frightening reading and it is becoming obvious to everyone that the players are just playing far too much rugby.

This could be the most open Six Nations for many years and I think several teams will tie on three wins. The secret to success will be winning away. Anyway lets get down to the Tournament team analyses. Here are the runners and riders for 2015:

IRELAND

Worthy champions in 2014 and must be favourites again this year. They were simply magnificent in the autumn with stunning victories over both South Africa and Australia and they have risen to the dizzy heights of 3 in the World rankings.

Coach Joe Schmidt has really been getting the best out of his squad and has selected a group of players with a mix of youth and experience in the tournament. Recent club form has been mixed to say the least with only Leinster making the knock stages of the European Champions Cup. Munster have been well below par and Ulster had a very poor start although improving lately.

Injuries are taking their toll and the loss of talisman Jonny Sexton for the start and the Paddy Jackson for the whole tournament are a big concern. The enigmatic Eoin Reddan remains a fitness doubt with Jamie Heaslip and Conor Murray. Will this give some of the younger players a chance to impress?

The Kearney brothers and Tommy Bowe will form a back three partnership to match any one in the world. I would like to see Schmidt also give Connacht’s Robbie Henshaw a run out at some stage. The Athlone youngster has been very impressive in the Guinness Pro 12 and it is great to see the Cinderella province get both him and Kieran Marmion into the squad. Fitzgerald, D’Arcy, and Earls will battle for Centre spots and with Sexton injured; Leinster's Ian Madigan will likely wear Ireland's number 10 jersey against the Italians. The injury concerns at scrum half look like easing it will be critical for Ireland to get the ball in the backs. In the forwards Heaslip and Dave Foley are both injury worries and South African Robbie Diack should make his Six Nations debut.

Ireland starts with what looks like an easy away fixture in Rome.  Before back to back home games over France and England and difficult away trips to Cardiff and Edinburgh to finish.

I think Ireland will win in Rome but it will be tighter than expect, beat France comfortably at home before also putting England to the sword. Ireland have a great record at Cardiff but Wales will be wanting to right the terrible Dublin performance from 12 months ago and I think the game will be touch and go and too close to call for either team. I will stick my neck out and state Ireland will not beat Wales this time. The other challenge I think will be at Murrayfield. Scotland have a great record against Ireland and I think they will shock the Irish and run them close before Ireland’s superior fitness will see them home. So 4 wins in all.  Final Position: CHAMPIONS

ENGLAND

A bit of a mixed bag for England in the autumn but impressive squad strength in depth. England were poor against South Africa and New Zealand and coach Lancaster has some tough selection decisions to make between now and September. Despite an absolutely horrific injury list, England has an extremely strong squad. You don’t win rugby tournaments with just 15 great players. You need around 30 world-class players with strength in depth in almost every position. England are definitely getting that and I believe they have the strongest squad of any European team.

Mike Brown was outstanding last season and remains rock solid at full back. England has an immense depth in Wingers and can pick any combination and have great finishers. Chris Ashton may be an odious oik but he is coming back to form. Johnny May has been strong for Gloucester, Wade and Yarde are in the Saxons squad for heavens’ sake. An embarrassment of riches if only they can get their hands on the ball.

Midfield remains a huge problem area. Brad Barrett is not a player to get the pulses racing but he is at least reliable and consistent.  Injury unfortunately will rule him out of Wales game along with Tuilagi and Eastmond. Luther Burrell will likely start against Wales and has a point to prove as he hasn’t progressed as well as expected. The ponderous Twelvetrees is another to prove a disappointment and the loss of Owen Farrell robs England of its best opportunity for a passing inside centre.

At fly half, George Ford will be the starter in Farrell’s absence and he is again solid and dependable but not earthshattering. Stephen Myler is really only a steady eddy player but does a competent job for the Saints and Cipriani’s recall over the summer could see he withy one last chance to be England’s savior. It will be interesting to see if he starts on the bench against Wales. 

In the forwards – Dan Cole is a loss for the early games but Bath’s David Wilson has come of age and is arguably the better player anyway – certainly on form. Second Row has been devastated with the loss of Parling, Lawes and Launchbury. Dave Attwood has been very impressive but who will fill the second slot? Back row also looks a little limited with Ben Morgan out for the season and Wood struggling for fitness.

England has the strength in depth to be competitive and win matches even with the long injury list. The question is can they start with a win in Cardiff and also win in Dublin? I don’t think so. They will be surprisingly competitive against Wales and expect a tight match with not much between the teams but the men in red scraping home. They follow this with a home game against Italy and a comfortable win before a heavy defeat in Dublin.  Wins against Scotland and France at fortress Twickenham are a given and England will also emerge with 3 wins albeit all at home. Final Position: 3rd

WALES

Wales had a reasonable autumn.  A comfortable win against South Africa and 70 minutes of great play against the All Blacks. Poor games against Australia (again) and Fiji marking down the report card. Club rugby was at war with the Union until October and it shows with no Welsh side making the knock out stages of the European Champions Cup although both Blues and Dragons did make it in the Challenge Cup. Don’t expect any significant changes in playing style of team line-ups in the tournament as Gatland will play it safe – undoubtedly too safe!

As England has strength in depth – it isn’t the case over Offa’s Dyke. Wales look threadbare in places and some positions will be a real concern. The return to form of Leigh Halfpenny at Toulon will be welcome news and he will form a back three with George North and Liam Williams. Alex Cuthbert has been simply dreadful this season and is lucky to make the squad. Don’t be surprise to see the excellent Hallam Amos also see some game time off the bench.

At Centres – where England struggles – Wales have depth. Square jaw hero Jamie Roberts remains incredibly powerful and he will be partnered with Jonathan Davies as first choice. Scott Williams and Cory Allen provide good cover from the bench – so now concerns there for Wales.

At Outside Half, Dan Biggar has really come of age and he will be the starter with Osprey’s club mate Rhys Webb at scrum half.  New Zealand born Gareth Anscombe is a controversial selection given he hasn’t really set the Blues alight but is improving with every game. I think Anscombe will come off the bench and will rise to the occasion.

In the pack, Gethin Jenkins continues to defy his advancing years and remains a force at prop. With the retirement of Adam Jones, Samson Lee’s emergence as a real Tight Head talent is just on cue but there isn’t much else in the prop department. Concerns about depth continue at hooker with Ken Owens out, Hibbard’s form is erratic – so the young Cardiff Blues hooker Kristian Dacey may be due to see some game time. No concerns in 2^nd row where Alun Wynn-Jones and Jake Ball are combining well with good back ups in Bradley Davies and Luke Charteris. Back row sees us back with some concerns. Bizarrely Gatland has ignored the form player in Wales - Josh Navidi and has gone with a single No.8 forward- Taulupe Falatau. Dan Lydiate continues to suffer from poor form and only Captain Sam Warburton is anywhere near his imperious best. Worrying issues with a brutal 7 weeks ahead.

Wales will start the tournament with a Friday night game next week against England. They will face a tough challenge and will squeak it a few points. Then follows Scotland away and I fear Wales will struggle with the revived Scotland and lose on penalties. Then it gets worse. France follows and anything less than top form will see another Welsh defeat. A final flourish with wins over Ireland and Italy will see Wales also finish with 3 wins. Final Position: 2^nd.

SCOTLAND

Will the real Scotland stand up please? Solid progress in the autumn saw Scotland have impressive wins over Argentina and Tonga and a heartbreak against eth All Blacks scoring 11 tries in the process. All this sees coach Vern Cotter in confident mood but happy to keep the underdog title and why not? Glasgow have been a revelation in both the Pro 12 and the European Cup showing some sublime movements and solid unity in their side. If Cotter can take the nucleus of the Glasgow side and mold an international team around them then look out. I feel this season will see Scotland roar back. 

Stuart Hogg has been in great form with support from winger Tommy Seymour and the returning Tim Visser. Young Finn Russell has the potential to slot in at Outside half with Duncan Weir out injured and could form a very productive partnership with Greg Laidlaw. Confidence is high north of the border and Scotland must deliver this term after a bitterly disappointing 2014 tournament.

In the forwards, Dave Denton’s injury is a concern and he will be missed for at least the early games. They will badly miss his ball carrying. John Beattie is rightly restored to the squad. Alastair Dickinson has impressed me at prop while Blair Cowan is a wild card for them in the back row. Scotland have nothing to lose and I believe they will rise to the challenge. A tough first game away in Paris will result in a narrow defeat but they will return home to beat both Wales and Italy at home and will run England close at HQ.  A final flourish against Ireland will also go close but not alas in a victory. A good season to build on – two wins. Final Position: 5^th

FRANCE

Just what is Phillipe St. Andre doing? A strange looking training squad was picked with several high profile absentees and now he has cut his squad down to the bare 23 for the first game. Really odd team management. Despite that, France should be entering the tournament with confidence. They had a mixed autumn with impressive wins over Australia and Fiji before a devastating loss to Argentina. French clubs are dominating the European Cup and their National championship is the envy of the world with its high standards and global stars.

Camille Lopez looks to have made the number 10 jersey his own after starting all three autumn matches and looks a real talent. France have struggled to find good Fly halves – so his emergence could be the start of something exciting for Les Bleus. In the forwards, Loann Goujon looks in line to get his first caps whilst Thierry Dusautoir returns after missing the whole of the 2014 tournament.

There is a familiar look to the French pack with veterans Nicholas Mas, Pascal Pape, and Benjamin Kayser all returning with exciting new prospects Guilhm Guirado and Uini Atonio. They will remain a fearsome forward pack assume the usual foul play and questionable morale don’t kick in.

In the backs, Wesley Fofana remains the star with Mathieu Bastareaud the beast. Yohan Huget and Morgan Parra will see France’s scoreboard ticking over and anyone who tries to play an open flowing game against them will struggle.

France will open with a win over Scotland and then face the difficult trip to Dublin for an Irish defeat. A home win over Wales and then the banana skin of Italy in Rome will be overcome before a heavy defeat to England. Still 3 wins. Final Position: 4^th

ITALY

Italy had a disappointing and frustrating Championship last year without a win to their name - after coming closest against Scotland, only for Duncan Weir's last-gasp drop goal to clinch a 21-20 victory at the Stadio Olimpico. They did run Wales far closer than anyone expected and after beating both France and Ireland the previous year, everyone knows Italy have the potential to always cause an upset.

They come into the tournament in promising form, following an autumn victory over Samoa and narrow defeats at the hands of Argentina and South Africa. However, their clubs sides have struggled all season and it is difficult to see a positive Six Nations for them this season.

In Sergio Parisse and Tomasso Allen, they have genuine world-class players but there is not sufficient strength in depth and many of they players are now reaching the veteran stage and twilight of their careers.

As usual expect tough games in Rome but little elsewhere.  The fixture schedule has been a little unkind to them and I do not expect any shock results this time around.  The opening game against Ireland probably represents their best chance of a win. That might sound a bit strange given Ireland are in such hot form, but first games can be edgy and nailbitey and Italy have the talent to push Ireland close. Away trips to England and Scotland will be fruitless before two final home games against France and Wales where they will run both teams close but no cigar. No wins – wooden spoon. Final Position: 6th