The 2023 Guinness Six Nations starts this weekend. This year’s edition of rugby’s greatest championship comes with the added weight of the 2023 Rugby World Cup in France looming in the minds of players and coaches alike.
It what should be a crucial year for all the teams, this year’s competition should be a cracker. We have two new National coaches, two Unions in disarray and numerous injuries, expect some cagy encounters but who will emerge victorious?
Let analyse the runners and riders:
IRELAND
Andy Farrell’s Ireland had a sensational year in 2022, complete with a Triple Crown, an historic series win against the All Blacks in New Zealand and autumn wins over the Springboks and Wallabies.
The team is looking to buck the unwanted trend of peaking between World Cups and enter the year as the best-ranked side in the world. The Six Nations will be an important tournament to continue their momentum
Ireland approach what could be a defining season for them. Even more defining than 2019 and 2015 and 2011.
The Six Nations always brings with it the first hints of spring, even when it's in the autumn of a World Cup cycle. If Ireland do go on to break their quarter-final glass ceiling at the World Cup later this year, their performance in this year's championship will largely be forgotten, even if a solid showing over the next seven weeks goes a long way to making that happen.
The Irish never like being favourites, they much prefer being underdogs. Ireland will head into this year’s competition with a spring in their step and supreme confidence. Could this be the easiest championship ever for the men from the Emerald Isle?
Ireland, ranked number one in the world, are on the back of a memorable year. Ireland coming from 1-0 down to record a momentous 2-1 series win in New Zealand last summer having scored more tries than anyone else in last year’s Guinness Six Nations. They then rounded off 2022 by beating South Africa and Australia.
The idea of peaking too soon is something Irish rugby fans live in eternal fear of, but performance isn't as simple as flicking a switch
If Andy Farrell’s men win every game in this year’s tournament it won’t exactly be a surprise to anyone, but they could win it with consummate ease. Usually, the victors have a couple of tight and tense games before emerging triumphant. Last year France were significantly tested by both Ireland and Wales but ultimately came through to take the title and a first Grand Slam in 12 years.
Dynamic forwards such as Tadhg Beirne, Josh van der Flier and Caelan Doris have been central to the shift in approach while there is a comforting familiarity to a backline still including the likes of Sexton, Garry Ringrose and Bundee Aki.
Clinical, ruthless, relentless – call it what you want, Ireland have become a winning machine over the last 12 months.
Their attacking edge is increasing all the time and they also have what it takes to grind matches out when not playing well, as Australia found in the autumn.
The strength in depth in the pack is arguably unmatched in this year’s Championship and will form the basis of their title bid.
Rarely do you get a team that is so strong they easily blow away all before them, but to be perfectly honest, I can’t see any opponent getting within seven points of the Irishmen over the next two months.
Not only are they ranked as the world’s number one team but they also have a match schedule that is strongly in their favour and that their closest challenger, Fabien Galthie’s France, have had several injury disruptions including Jonathan Danty, Peato Mauvaka, Cameron Woki and Gabin Villiere leading into the Six Nations.
They open the tournament against Wales, a team that will be better under Warren Gatland but one that shouldn’t get close to Farrell’s charges, before they head back to Dublin for tournament deciding game with France. Away matches with Scotland and Italy follow, two sides the Irish should dispatch with relative comfort, and they then finish against an England squad in transition at the Aviva Stadium. Who can stop them?
If there is any weak area in their game plan - the attacking game which cut through teams in late 2021 and for the first half of 2022 looked blunt at times in the Autumn Nations Series wins against South Africa, Fiji and Australia.
Against South Africa and Australia in particular they struggled to get real width on the ball, with the Springboks continually reading their movements, aside from a period in the early stages of the second half. The fact that they prevailed in arm-wrestles on both of those occasions pleased Andy Farrell. Farrell will be well aware of these momentary lapses and he will have no doubt been working hard to address this in the past two months
Ireland to win the tournament at cantor.
Prediction: FIRST(Champions)
FRANCE
In 2022, France were crowned the champions and Grand Slam winners - their first title since 2010. They went on to remain unbeaten through the year and they have beaten all tier-one teams over the previous two seasons. The formidable French are still riding a wave of momentum. Were they to make history and record back-to-back Grand Slams – a feat not yet achieved in the Six Nations era, with France the last to do it back in 1997 and 1998 – France would also equal the world record for successive victories in men’s international rugby at 18.
Les Blues are rightly considered by many to be the front-runners once again, as Fabien Galthie’s men continue to look to build their strength, culminating in an expected World Cup ‘Triomphe’ on home soil. Les Bleus trailed for just 13 minutes across the entirety of the 2022 Championship, even if they were pushed hard for periods in every game.
Now, with daunting trips to Dublin to take on the world’s number one side, and Twickenham, the only fortress they have yet to conquer under Fabien Galthié; this will be a huge test a matter months out from a home World Cup.
With a few injuries to key men, notably lock Cameron Woki and centre Jonathan Danty, France’s depth will be tested.
With a powerful pack, scintillating outside backs and perhaps the best young half-back pairing in the world, France have all the ingredients of a top-quality outfit.
Under Fabien Galthié, a hallmark of their game has been their tactical discipline, rarely playing expansive rugby in their own half, but then lifting the tempo as soon as there is an opportunity. With the likes of Damian Penaud, Gaël Fickou and of course, Antoine Dupont, they have players who can create something out of nothing, and Les Bleus are also incredibly clinical, rarely needing more than three or four phases to convert a chance into a try.
If the star attractions in Dupont, Jalibert, Ntamack and co, can avoid any unexpected injuries, and play with the same ‘savour faire’ flair which brought them the title last year, then stopping them will be a tall order.
The latest summer tour of Japan saw France return as expected victors but continued to impress throughout the Autumn. A memorable Marseille victory over South Africa established expectations that France are the best International rugby side today.
It says a lot about France that even without their second and third choice hookers behind Julien Marchand – perhaps the world’s best in his position – there was still no place in the squad for Camille Chat, who you sense would be welcomed with open arms by the majority of international coaches.
It is a similar story in other positions, even the centres where Galthié is missing Danty, Arthur Vincent and the sadly retired Virimi Vakatawa, and yet can still call upon an outstanding duo in Gaël Fickou and Yoram Moefana. Other than Antoine Dupont, and the incredible Gregory Alldritt, you get the feeling that they could probably cope with the loss of any player.
It is hard to find too many weaknesses in a team that has won 13 matches in a row and beaten all comers in that time. Still, even if they scored at least 30 points a match in November, they did not look quite as fluent in attack as had previously been the case.
The fact that Romain Ntamack was playing after no rugby for two months may well have been a factor, but France will certainly hope to pose more of a threat with ball in hand this year.
South Africa also highlighted a frailty defending the rolling maul that coach Karim Ghezal will have been working hard on in the intervening months.
France open up with a tip to Rome before travelling to Dublin to face Ireland in round 2. Then its Scotland at home, a tricky trip to Twickenham before the final match again at home to Wales.
I think Dublin could well be a dress rehearsal for a World Cup Quarter final against Ireland. It’s hard to bet against France but the Aviva Stadium will be an absolute fortress and a narrow defeat will follow - in what may be the closest contest of the competition.
Wins over Scotland and Wales will put France is a strong position if Ireland slip up and Twickenham could be another tough test for Les Bleus.
Prediction: SECOND
WALES
The people of the principality will be breathing a sigh of huge relief seeing that the Pivacaust has finally ended. The dreadful coaching and lack of leadership shown by coach Wayne Pivac simple had to come to an end.
After Wales won just three Tests under Pivac-19 last year, with a number of horrendous defeats included dispiriting home losses to Italy and Georgia. The final act of Pivac-19 demonstrated just how out of depth he was against Australia.
Leading the Wallabies by 21 points, Wales imploded in the final 10 minutes. Pivac made the incredible decision to take off his two most experienced players – Alun Wyn Jones and Justin Tipuric with 5 minutes remaining and replacing them with two one cap wonders. Truly inept game management and absolutely astounding. Australia rallied and scored the inevitable try to pip Wales and ned the catastrophic period of Pivac-19’s reign.
Cue the return of Warren Gatland who unquestionably has the Midas touch, and there is no doubt that Wales’ odds for a tough opener against Ireland in Cardiff on February 4 have shortened substantially since his arrival, but a title challenge would certainly be a tall order.
When Wales beat South Africa in Pretoria last summer, the odds on Gatland returning as head coach less than six months later would have been greater than 100-1. But the New Zealander is back for a second stint in the job, having seen Wales win four Six Nations titles, three Grand Slams and reach two World Cup semi-finals when he was last at the helm between 2008 and 2019. Gatland has little time to try and turn things around. If anyone can, though, then it is him.
And the Welsh regions seemed to have rallied with some impressive performances. Ospreys impressive run of results in the Champions Cup and Cardiff Rugby in the Challenge Cup have shown Wales have the talent, but just as optimism started to happen, the WRU has been rocked by the huge scandal of sexism and an unacceptable work environment leading to the resignation of CEO Steve Phillips.
The toxic culture of the Worst Run Union has finally been exposed and have rocked the game to its core in Wales. Charlotte Wathan’s bravery in exposing the horrific comments made to her in her role as general manager of women's rugby just showed how rotten the management of the Un ion is. Add to that the letter from (Cardiff Rugby director) Hayley Parsons and a painful BBC documentary showed that little has been learned since Amanda Blanc’s resignation form the Professional rugby Board in. November 2021.
The WRU's governance structure has been under scrutiny for some time, with many believing the community and professional game in Wales should be run completely separately. Currently, Wales' 300-plus community clubs elect the chairman of the WRU, hold the majority of seats on the board, which elects the CEO and ultimately decides how much money should be spent and where.
Complete change is required.
Back to the playing side, and Warren Gatland has rung the changes in the coaching department. No Shawn Edwards to return and the WRU blocked the re-appointment of Robert Howley so Gatland has turned to Alex King and Mike Forshaw as attack coach and defence coach respectively.
They join Jonathan Humphreys (forwards coach) and Neil Jenkins (skills coach) in the Wales senior men’s coaching line-up.
Alex King, a former fly-half who won five caps for England, previously served as Wales attack coach for the 2017 Six Nations while Gatland was on secondment to the British & Irish Lions. King spent most of his playing career at Wasps before a move to Clermont Auvergne, where he later transitioned into coaching helping the French side to their first ever Top 14 title.
King also aided Northampton Saints’ Premiership title win in 2014, before a move to Montpellier. His most recent role was as attack coach for Gloucester, a position he held for two seasons.
Mike Forshaw joins Wales from Premiership Rugby side Sale Sharks where he has been defence coach since May 2013. Wigan-born Forshaw, a former dual-code player who was capped by England and Great Britain in rugby league, worked with Warrington and Wigan in Super League and had previously spent three years coaching with Connacht including helping the Irish province make its Heineken Cup debut in 2011.
In his playing career Forshaw represented Wigan, Wakefield Trinity and Leeds Rhinos before a short stint in union with Saracens. He returned to league with Bradford Bulls before finishing his playing career with Warrington Wolves.
Gatland has a lot of work to do but knows the modern Welsh rugby landscape better than most. There is a great deal of external noise he will have to navigate, with the WRU under pressure from almost all angles.
Looking at the squad, there is some serious talent in the back-row and in the backline. The tools are there. Gatland just needs to pick up the jigsaw puzzle and fit the right pieces as quickly as possible.
Taulupe Faletau was one of the shining lights for Wales in that indifferent 2022 and boasts immense quality on both sides of the ball. The Cardiff man carried tremendously well throughout and made an impressive number in each game he was part of. One would expect Faletau to be a dead-on starter as Gatland will look to find balance around the star with the plethora of options available at flank.
Ken Owens has been handed the captain’s armband by Gatland, taking over from Dan Biggar, who skippered the side last season, and will have the massive task of setting the tone. The hooker is vastly experienced with 86 Test caps for Wales and will be looking to build on his impressive form in the Autumn Nations Series.
Captaincy or not, Dan Biggar remains a key player for Gatland as the obvious first-choice fly-half. The Welshman kicks well out of hand and at goal, is handy on attack and is a decent defender. Wales claim to be looking to elevate their attack this year, and the Toulon man will be key. If Biggar plays well, Wales will always have a better chance in the Six Nations.
Christ Tshiunza is one of the hottest prospects globally after regularly putting in solid performances with Exeter Chiefs in the Premiership and Champions Cup. The giant forward stands at 1.98 metres tall and 112 kilograms, adding some much-needed physicality to the Welsh pack. Gatland has plentiful options at flank, so it remains to be seen where and how he will use Tshiunza. There is always the possibility of shifting him to the second-row to add further power to the tight five. Nevertheless, the starlet is ready to have an extended run at Test level regardless of position and could become a powerhouse for Wales.
Dragons winger Rio Dyer burst onto the Test scene with a fantastic try against the All Blacks on his debut in Cardiff. He has continued to show good form for his club side with his electric pace and sound ball skills. With Louis Rees-Zammit expected to be out for the opening two rounds, Gatland may rely on Dyer for out-and-out pace in his backline.
Tommy Reffell has been ripping it up in the Gallagher Premiership and will fight with Jac Morgan and Justin Tipuric for the back row places. Joe Hawkins and Mason Grady will be in contention for start at centre with Nick Tompkins and George North.
Wales will inevitably get better under Gatland as he uses his vast knowledge of rugby in the country to steady the ship and make a charge up the table. The squad looks good, and there is a host of talent in most positions, with flank being the strongest by a long way. Their tight five is probably the most under pressure area of the team, and if Gatland can get that area firing, all the other components will benefit greatly.
Wales have brilliant half-backs and some truly fantastic runners outside of them, so it will be fascinating to see how Gatland chooses to elevate his attack.
Wales start their campaign with a visit from the world’s top-ranked side, Ireland, on February 4 before a trip to Scotland in Round Two. After that, England head to Cardiff in Round Three before Wales visit Italy and France for the final two rounds.
They have three away games out of the five, with the Blue teams all away, which is not ideal. However, Gatland will relish playing in France ahead of the World Cup later this year.
Several players were part of Gatland’s 2019 World Cup team and will be accustomed to how he operates. Meanwhile, the rest of the squad will be lifted by the arrival of a new coach, as it often is in sport. Ultimately, there is the unknown of how quickly the head coach can line the stars for Wales. With Ireland and France streets ahead of anyone else in the competition, the third spot is really a battle between England and Wales.
Prediction: THIRD
ENGLAND
England come into 2023 and the Six Nations in some degree of turmoil, both on and off the pitch. Noise around issues such as the club game, tackle height laws and so on have provided a backdrop of blame, subterfuge and criticism to the governing body, the RFU, who also took the bold decision of firing their most successful coach in terms of win rate in history.
When Eddie Jones took over as head coach of England in 2015, he did so under the weight of lofty expectations. Over the past seven years he led his team to triumphs but also had his fair share of tribulations.
Jones enjoyed great early success and guided England to Six Nations titles in 2016, 2017 and 2020, while reaching the 2019 World Cup final, where his side suffered defeat to South Africa
In the years that followed England's World Cup defeat, the Six Nations became a tournament in which Jones' side found themselves floundering.
2021 saw them finish fifth after defeats to Scotland, Wales and Ireland, while in 2022 they lost to Scotland, Ireland and France, putting them well off contention for the title.
Defeat to Scotland at Twickenham in 2021 was England's first loss to the Scots there for 38 years dating back to 1983, while they lost to Ireland in both years by a combined margin of 31 points, conceding 32 on both occasions.
Reviews once again took place, but Jones survived and headed on a tour of Australia which marked another high point in his rollercoaster tenancy.
Despite Jones getting his young guns firing down under, the autumn would reveal England had some major problems to still contend with. England won only five of their 12 tests in 2022 and, with a World Cup around the corner in 2023, concerns over England's form escalated with defeats against Argentina and South Africa and a last minute draw against New Zealand
Jones seemed completely focused on the 2023 World Cup and that was a costly error. International rugby is very simple: focus everything on the next game with absolutely zero distractions. He lost the focus of simply winning the next game and allowed himself to get distracted by the media, former players, writing books and everything else.
Leicester coach Steve Borthwick was appointed as the new National Coach with Rugby League legend Kevin Sinfield installed as his right-hand man in the role of defence coach.
The 43-year-old ex-Saracens and England lock has just nine Test matches to go before the World Cup contest in France. Borthwick worked under Jones with England between 2015 and 2020, before moving on to drive Leicester to last season’s Gallagher Premiership title.
Kevin Sinfield joined Leicester in 2021 for his first coaching role in union, quickly making a major mark at Welford Road. I expect the new coaching pair to use the template that took Leicester to the Gallagher Premiership title last season to prepare England for the upcoming first Guinness Six Nations campaign under his command.
Nevertheless, the off-pitch disarray has been offset by calm and impressive displays in front of the media by Borthwick and Kevin Sinfield, and there’s little green shoots of hope that the former Tigers duo might be bringing in an era of clarity and focused selection, in contrast to the obsessive detail and left-field picks of their predecessor.
Borthwick selected an exciting squad focused on speed rather than just power. It’s clear he wants to pick a team with pace, which promises a stark contrast to the Eddie Jones era.
The selection of the rapid Ollie Hassell-Collins and the recall of forward Ben Earl show some vision of how England will play in the Borthwick era. Ollie Hassell-Collins is properly big, fast and aggressive, a complete modern Test winger.
Under Jones, England became far too slow and predictable from one to 15. To win a World Cup, England can’t rely on brute power alone. They are not South Africa. There must be a speed and dynamism to the players who are selected.
Unfortunately, at the same time, England have now lost a total of four players from their original 36-strong Guinness Six Nations squad, Elliot Daly and Jamie George withdrawing on Tuesday from this week’s five-day training camp just 24 hours after it was confirmed that Courtney Lawes and George McGuigan would miss out. With Tom Curry also missing the first two rounds – it will be a very new look team which opens the competition in the Calcutta Cup match against Scotland at Twickenham.
Their task is enormous: win, win hearts and minds and keep winning. And given their tight timescale of nine games together before the World Cup, training and playing time has never been more of the essence.
For all the excitement around the new coaches, together with their impressive performances in front of the camera this year, the facts remain that England are short of form, short of world-class players, short in key positions and, above all, short in real Test match size compared to the likes of South Africa and France.
They have a tough schedule; Wales and Ireland away, Scotland, always a road bump, first up, and host France in the fourth match, hopefully when both sides are up to working temperature. Italy also visit Twickenham, packed with pace in their backline and with some world-class forwards such as Michele Lamaro, Federico Ruzza and Danilo Fischetti; a game that no team could take for granted- just ask Wales!
Borthwick’s selection have a consistent theme of picking form and pace, I expect him to vary his combinations, a possible move to a smaller back-row but using real specialist flyers down the wings. His dilemma is that England have 50 players that are 6 or 7/10 at this level, and outside of Tom Curry, Owen Farrell and Marcus Smith, they have very few that you could consider are truly world-class.
The Gallagher Premiership is producing a raft of top-class loose heads, options galore at seven and loads of choice in the back three. But look for a big centre or two, seek some properly big locks or back-rows and you may be waiting for some considerable time. So pace and evasion has to be at the centre of Borthwick’s vision, and that is rather un-English.
On one hand this creates opportunities for players to put their hands up and to improve, but selecting a style, a team to deliver it and get results is a labour of Hercules himself. Put simply, Borthwick can pick his first team on gut feel and data; from thereon in he has one or maybe two chances to recalibrate that thinking. His initial decisions, and there’s some huge ones such as Smith and Farrell, are absolutely key to get right, because if he doesn’t, he’ll be out of time.
Owen Farrell is undoubtedly the key man for England. Will he play 10, will he play 12? Having a man leading the team with 100 caps is a strong asset. In tight matches, he’s the king, a leader and a man of steel. However, should he transgress once more in the tackle, the repercussions could be enormous.
Farrell’s playmaker partner, Marcus Smith is another key part of the 23, but again there is huge uncertainty about where and if Smith starts. He could be the real point of difference that can rip apart any defence in the world, and on that basis, him starting at 10 is more important than where Farrell starts. We suspect, however, Borthwick will see him as a finisher, and England will fail to impress, with Smith being brought back to start later on in the tournament, a potential waste of possibly the most threatening talent England has.
This is such a hard one to predict. Sometimes a new coach gives that halo feeling, that 5% lift as a new voice is heard in the shed. Surely that’ll be enough to see off Scotland and Italy at home? You’d have thought so.
But then Cardiff and Wales hold a massive challenge – a team that’ll have the same halo feeling from Warren Gatland and a side that has a lot more beef in the lock and centre positions than England has. This is England’s turning point. Win it and they’re above par for the campaign. Lose it and it’s back to the drawing board.
With even the most optimistic Englishman understanding that both France and Ireland are huge uphill tasks, it all revolves around that Wales match. If they triumph, there is the chance of maybe third or second place in the Six Nations, but Gatland could well galvanise his team to a famous victory.
Prediction: FOURTH
SCOTLAND
It has been the same old tale for Scotland over the last couple of Six Nations campaigns, where the side starts brilliantly but fades as the tournament pushes on. In the 24 years since winning the final Five Nations Championship Scotland have finished no higher than third in the expanded competition.
The closest they have come to being genuine title contenders was in 2021 when they defeated England, France and Italy but lost by a single point to eventual winners Wales and by three to Ireland. Had they not conceded a late try to Louis Rees-Zammit against the Welsh at Murrayfield it would have been the Scots who finished top of the pile. Fine margins.
Townsend puts Scotland’s failure to win the championship since 1999 down to improving standards across the board and points to the world rankings where Ireland and France occupy the top two places, ahead of the traditional powerhouses from the south.
With head coach Gregor Townsend under pressure to produce results and performances after a mixed few years in the job, expectations are certainly not as high as they have been in recent seasons.
Part of that is also down to the perpetual disappointment which has followed Scottish optimism heading into a Six Nations Championship. The talent is there, but the consistency is not, and we feel another campaign of frustration is coming for the players, coaches and supporters.
Last year, it started off well enough as they emerged triumphant 20-17 over England to retain the Calcutta Cup, but it proved to be yet another false dawn. As the Red Rose would go on to show, they were no great shakes themselves and, in hindsight, that Scotland display was pretty mediocre. A week later, Townsend’s men produced a lacklustre effort against Wales in Cardiff.
They fell away to three defeats in the remainder of the tournament finishing fourth.
Townsend has been calling for greater consistency, and the Scots will need to find that in their game. Fortunately, club sides Edinburgh and Glasgow Warriors have been in brilliant form over the last two months, which could boost their chances in the Six Nations.
Scotland had a strong Autumn - hammering the Pumas 52-29 and losing narrowly to New Zealand, generating optimism that Townsend can at least match his previous best of three wins which he achieved in the 2018, 2020 and 2021 Six Nations. Statistically, he has the best win rate of any Scotland coach in the pro era.
It has been a rather disruptive build-up to the annual international tournament for the Scots. Coach AB Zondagh announced his departure from the backroom team just a month before the start of the competition, there’s been rumours over Townsend’s future, and they have lost star wing Darcy Graham to injury.
Forwards Scott Cummings and Rory Darge are also on the sidelines, while there are fitness doubts over the likes of Zander Fagerson and Hamish Watson, who played his first game since the November campaign on Saturday.
With Townsend’s future beyond the World Cup in doubt, it could be his last chance to make a solid swing at the Six Nations
Scotland certainly don’t have the easiest start as For the third year in a row Scotland will face England then Wales in their opening two games, with Townsend’s side looking to become the first Scotland team in over half a century to beat the Auld Enemy three times in a row. Townsend had the measure of Eddie Jones, winning three, drawing one and losing one of their Six Nations duels. Jones’ departure and the arrival of Steve Borthwick make England something of an unknown quantity.
They then take on a Wales side potentially rejuvenated by the return of Warren Gatland, with France following two weeks later, the pressure could be on Townsend and his players by the time the final two games come around.
Even if they come through those three matches with potentially a couple of victories, it doesn’t get any easier as Ireland come to town. Two victories from those four clashes would represent a reasonable return heading into the final encounter against Italy, but a bad run could leave them battling to avoid the Wooden Spoon.
Two players that immediately spring to mind if Scotland are to perform well are Finn Russell and Stuart Hogg, who will be crucial to their chances of success. Russell and Townsend have had a strained relationship over the years, but the fly-half is the one player that can ignite this backline.
The head coach dropped the Racing 92 star ahead of the Autumn Nations Series before bringing him back following an injury to Adam Hastings. He then starred in the dominant triumph over Argentina, and Townsend has been spending the past few days heaping praise on the 30-year-old. If he and Hogg can work well in tandem, then the Scots could have a successful few weeks.
Elsewhere in the backline there is Duhan van der Merwe, a player that needs to take on added responsibility with Graham currently on the sidelines. Van der Merwe is an absolute powerhouse but tends not to come searching for the ball so the Scots will need to find ways of getting him involved.
Up front, loose head Pierre Schoeman has become a bit of a cult hero, for both club and country, and needs a big tournament, while it is vital his front-row colleague, tight head Zander Fagerson, is back fit.
Behind them, Jonny Gray will do much of the hard graft in the second-row, but it is the loose trio which provides much of stardust in the forward eight. Once again, they are relying on one of their most important players, Hamish Watson, being fit and firing in time for the start of the tournament.
He and captain Jamie Ritchie form an excellent and well-balanced partnership at flanker with Matt Fagerson the primary ball carrier at number eight. Fagerson has become a key cog at the base of the scrum and his carrying game will be crucial in getting front foot ball.
If the forwards can do their jobs, then it will make it much easier for half-backs and potentially someone like Ben Healy. Russell will, providing there is no further bust-up with Townsend, be the first-choice Scotland fly-half, with Blair Kinghorn next in command, but an injury or suspension will open the door for the Munsterman. Irish by birth but Scottish-qualified through his mother, the 23-year-old is a very talented playmaker and has the quality to step up at this level.
Another ‘foreigner’ taking his place in the squad is Ruaridh McConnochie. He has the name of a Scot but is very much English having been born and raised south of the border, while he also represented the Red Rose at the World Cup. Under World Rugby’s new laws, McConnochie has been able to switch and could well make his second international debut during the Six Nations. The 31-year-old has struggled with injuries but, when fit is an excellent player and will be a threat to defences if given an opportunity by Townsend.
I can’t see them overturning France or Ireland, so three victories is probably the most they can hope for. Even then, going to a pumped-up Twickenham, where fans will be buoyed with the new head coach coming in, will be a big ask first up. The Wales match is probably 50/50 but, if they succumb to Gatland’s men, they could be facing with no wins under their belt. Scotland should do enough to avoid the Wooden Spoon, but it will be another disappointing tournament for Townsend’s men.
Prediction: FIFTH
ITALY
The serial whipping boys of the Championship hit back last year by claiming their first victory in the Six Nations in 36 attempts, defeating Wales 22-21 on Super Saturday, and will be out to avoid another seven-year wait for their next win.
Italy head into the Six Nations off the back of a mixed bag of results in July and November last year. Kieran Crowley’s charges fell to their first-ever defeat to Georgia but bounced back to claim a massive 49-17 triumph over Samoa.
The Azzurri made one final bit of history as they secured their maiden Test win over Australia, defeating Dave Rennie’s side 28-27, but their year closed with a 63-21 humbling from South Africa.
Inspirational captain Michele Lamaro skippers the side once again this Six Nations and despite key playmaker Paolo Garbisi being absent for the opening rounds through injury, Crowley certainly has a powerful enough squad to be competitive this term.
The Azzurri have the arduous task of hosting France in the opening game of the Six Nations. As mentioned earlier, they will front up against the current holders and last year’s Grand Slam winners without the guidance of Garbisi.
It would take an almighty effort for Italy to upset Fabien Galthie’s Championship-winning side. If the Italians are to win another match this Six Nations, they will possibly target the home game against Wales and the away trip to Murrayfield at the back end of the competition.
Although overturning the likes of France and Ireland seems unlikely, the last time Italy did claim two wins in a single Six Nations was back in 2015 when they defeated the French (22-18) and Irish (22-15) at home.
The loss of Paolo Garbisi is an enormous blow to the side for the opening two rounds but is expected to return for the home Test against Ireland in Round Three. The fly-half slotted the winning points against Wales last year, but his influence on the side extends further than his excellence from the tee. He displays tactical nous and game management far beyond his years.
With Garbisi sidelined, Tommaso Allan will likely take over the reins at pivot, and the experienced playmaker is more than capable of driving the team, as he showed against Australia last November when he filled the number 10 jersey.
Michele Lamaro is a vital cog in the pack, both from a performance and leadership point of view, while the return of Jake Polledri to the set-up is a tremendous boost to their back-row stocks. The Gloucester loose forward has endured a horrendous run of injuries, but if he can get back to his previous best in the Azzurri blue, he will quickly re-establish himself as a regular starter.
Livewire full-back Ange Capuozzo showed just how much of a threat he was last year, scoring two tries in his first two appearances in the Six Nations. He backed that up with a brace in the historic win over Australia. The 2022 World Rugby Breakthrough Player of the Year will be a go-to source for tries and attacking intent throughout the competition and is bound to produce magical moments.
There are some supremely talented players throughout Crowley’s squad worth keeping an eye on. Forgotten rising star Matteo Minozzi returns to the Italian squad after his battles with injuries and a self-inflicted break from Test rugby to get his career back on track. An entertaining full-back, he could provide a spark from the bench for Italy or line up on the wing if needed. Him linking up with Capuozzo is nightmarish for opposition defenders.
Throw Monty Ioane, Pierre Bruno and Tommaso Menoncello in the mix and Crowley is spoilt for choice out wide.
In the pack, the Italians double the Cannone threat, with Niccolo in the second-row and Lorenzo at number eight. The brothers flexed their Test capabilities throughout last year and are a threat in all facets of the game but particularly with ball in hand.
Italy will fancy their chances of avoiding the Wooden Spoon this year, but the odds are stacked against them with the two tournament favourites visiting the Stadio Olimpico.
Wales will undoubtedly be better this year under the guidance of Warren Gatland, as should England under Steve Borthwick, making Scotland the most likely target game for the Italians.
A single victory this year would be a positive for the Azzurri and give them plenty of confidence ahead of the Rugby World Cup, but in the end, another Wooden Spoon finish is expected.
Prediction: SIXTH
Round One Score Predictions:
Wales 16 Ireland 26
England 23 Scotland 9
Italy 10 France 36
