Six Nations 2014 Week 3 - Decisive Encounters

Halfway point through the 2014 Six Nations and Rugby Raconteur has hit the dizzy heights of 100% accuracy in results predicted although not in points scored or points difference.  Having said that, there have been some noticeable surprises in both the team performances and the results to date.

Ireland have had two impressive home wins. Victory over a stuttering Scotland was expected but the Irish surprised everyone with the ease of their convincing win over a tired looking Wales. Coach Joe Schmidt has impressed everyone with his technical vision and ability to alternate game plans – in deep contrast to the one dimensional “Warrenball” approach of Gatland at Wales. 

France are also unbeaten – after a narrow win over England, they were more impressing in beating the much improved Italy team in the last match. France are still not entirely convincing in all departments and we have yet to see if their Gallic flair will be carried over and continue on the road.

But lets not get carried away yet. The fixture mix giving both Ireland and France two back to back home games may not reflect the actual true playing strengths of either team.

Elsewhere, England are growing in confidence and building nicely through the tournament. One cannot be anything other than impressed by the way Stuart Lancaster is blooding new players and building a real team feeling in the Red Rose camp. Can it continue against the men in green?

Lets review this weekend’s fixtures:

Wales v France

Wales were just comprehensively beaten in every department against Ireland. They looked jaded and devoid of a plan B. The excuse that they have played too much rugby frankly doesn’t wash and it could simply be that Gatland and his coaching team have run out of ideas and don’t feel able to do a course correction with the current playing squad.

The Welsh forwards were comprehensively beaten in all areas by Ireland.  You simply cannot lose two attacking line outs against the throw in the Irish 22 and get bullied around the breakdown and hope to compete effectively. The lack of fitness of Gethin Jenkins was clear and Adam Jones just is not the force he was at tighthead prop. To be honest, I am disappointed that Gatland has not been more adventurous with his selections for the French match and that Adam Jones has been retained. The hair bear has been a massive servant for both Wales and the Lions but its time for him to hang up his boots. He is not going to last until the World Cup and Wales need to be bringing on some of their promising youngsters in the same way they did before the last World Cup.

Both Jenkins and Warburton had impressive games for the Blues last weekend and are both retained. Amazingly Dan Lydiate is retained in the back row despite two very poor games. He should have made way for Justin Tipuric as the Welsh back row looks much more explosive with Tipuric and Warburton on the flanks rather than the static defensive oriented Lydiate. Taulupe Faletau needs a solid game after a bitterly poor showing in Dublin and the Welsh line out will welcome the return of Charteris at the expense of the lightweight Andrew Coombs.

Mike Philips has looked poor ever since he moved to France and is rightly dropped in favour of the lively Rhys Webb. Dan Biggar must be very disappointed to miss out on selection and to retain Priestland at Fly Half when you have choices available beggars belief to me. Elsewhere as predicted in my pre-season brief; Wales finally put George North in the Centre with Jamie “Dr. Jaw” Roberts. Roberts was the one Welsh played to stand up in Dublin and I am very excited to see these two leviathans together in the Welsh midfield.

As for France, they have looked impressive with the ball in hand. Huget has stood out as one of the players of the tournament so far and this has timed itself well with the return of form of Wesley Fofana who was excellent against Italy.  The forwards have stood up well to both England and Italy – probably the two strongest packs – and along with Louis Picamoles. Yannick Nyanga has been very lively  in the back row. France centre Mathieu Bastareaud is retained at centre having recovered from a shoulder injury and France make one other enforced change with Flanker Bernard Le Roux, who suffered concussion in the 30-10 win against Italy, replaced by Racing Metro team-mate Wenceslas Lauret.

If France get their back line moving and secure good possession and the victory is there for the taking.

Wales must have a solid scrum, win their line outs and retain possession through the phases to have any chance against France. The French will concede lots of penalties and the off colour Halfpenny will need his kicking boots to give wales a chance.   Wales won’t play as badly again but I fear the lack of change in their line out will be an Achilles heel. I really don’t know what to call here. If France wins, then a Grand Slam is within their sights. If Wales lose, then I fear further embarrassment against England and even possibly Scotland in the final match.

We don’t know which France will turn up. Wales have a dreadfully poor record in Friday night games losing their last two in the Six Nations – England in 2011 and France in 2010.  Too close to call but I think Wales will scrap home.

Wales 19 France 17

Italy v Scotland

Wooden Spoon match in Rome and Italy will be looking to poor one further agony for Scotland. I really don’t know what is going on with the selection decisions in Edinburgh. Kelly Brown selected as Captain and then discarded after the Dublin debacle. Richie Grey dropped for the match day 23 and then re-instated for this match, and now the excellent Dave Denton is incredibly dropped for this crucial encounter. It defies all selection logic and despite keeping the English score down at Murrayfield, Scotland ended pointless with a toothless attack and few players enhancing their reputations.

Ross Ford pays the price for two poor games and is rightly dropped. Grey will add more experience to the pack and the recall of Johnny Beattie at No.8; whilst – I believe is a retrograde step; at least adds a player with experience and leadership.  Scotland will try to keep Italy at bay in the forwards and try to get their line out more consistent and find some ray of optimism to build on but its hard to be optimistic given the abject form shown so far in the tournament.

As for Italy, two away trips have been a difficult start for them but they have impressed many with their strong showings against both Wales and France. Sergio Parisse has been in outstanding form and the Italian pack - whilst perhaps not the scrummaging force of other years; has been solid and workmanlike. They will be sweating on the fitness of Castrogiovanni and Bergamasco.

What has been different has been the fact that Italy has discovered a back division.  Tomasso Allen has been a revelation at Fly half with strong performances in the backs from McLean, Iannone, Campagnaro and Sarto. Italy looks much more like a “proper” 15 man team rather than the 10 man rugby of old.

It is difficult to see Scotland raising their game and Italy blowing theirs. Italy by a large margin. More heartache and a wooden spoon for Scotland.

Italy 28 Scotland 14

England v Ireland

Last and by no means least – the main event – England v Ireland. Rugby Raconteur has backed England to win this year’s title and despite the (predicted) narrow defeat in Paris, I see no reason to change that viewpoint. The England performances so far have been a work in progress.  The new starters Nowell and May have had impressive games and look like great finds. Billy Vunipola has looked very powerful at No.8, Mike Brown has bossed games from full back and Danny Care has been the stand out England player, growing in maturity every match and providing fast service to Farrell and the three-quarters.

In the Centres, Burrell has grown in confidence every match and has been a strong performer in every game.  Billy Twelvetrees was much more confident against Scotland after a poor game against France.  I am pleased to see the exciting George Ford get a bench call up and he can add another dimension to the play in the latter stages as Ireland tire.

In the forwards, the loss of Dan Cole is a big one, as his replacement David Wilson has not shown good form or fitness this season. England need a solid scrum and a metronomic line out to secure quality ball and then kick their penalties and get their exciting back line into the game. The tactical kicking game will be critical and the reliable Mike Browns will need to be on top form.  If England can secure their own possession and kick well, then the game is as good as won.

So to Ireland, they comprehensively beat Wales by out thinking them. They simply kicked Wales back to their own half of the field, defended well, and then took their chances. Their back row of Peter O’Mahoney, Chris Henry, and Jamie Heaslip dominated the breakdowns against Wales and Ireland were unstoppable with their rolling maul when on attack.  That does not mean they are not beatable. One win over a one dimensional Wales does not a champion make. Ireland were poor in the first half against Scotland. They only came alive second half when Scottish heads were down and stamina fading.  If the England pack gets in their faces then they could struggle.

Jonny Sexton has been supreme in controlling games and Rob Kearney has been back to top form. In the front row Cian Healy and Mike Ross have been very solid and Ireland also have two other impressive props in Martin Moore and Jack McGrath – all of whom could give England a torrid time in the scrums.

Twickenham holds no fear for Ireland who have had narrow wins in 2004, 2006, and 2010. England need to stick to the basics and hope the Twickenham crowd can carry them home. England by 3 points.

England 29 Ireland 26

SIX NATIONS 2014 WEEK TWO - FORWARD MOMENTUM

The first weekend of the 2014 Six Nations proved to be a good one for Rugby raconteur with 3 accurate predictions. The pick of the matches being the clash of the titans in Paris between France and England. As predicted, these two teams look like the teams to beat in this year’s championship.

Elsewhere, a lacklustre Wales stuttered to a narrow win over an improving Italy in Cardiff and Ireland predictably put Scotland to the sword on Sunday in Dublin. One playing position stood out to me as the highlight of the weekend and it's a position without a name just a number – the No.8.

All three matches saw outstanding displays of some of the world’s best exponents of the back of the scrum loose forward play. In Paris, Louis Picamoles and the barnstorming Billy Vunipola were very impressive. If eth Toulouse giant Picamoles was the pick of the first half, then Vunipola’s break to set up Burrell’s final England try was equally breathtaking in its ferocity.

In Cardiff, Sergio Parisse showed why many believe (along with Keiron Reed) that he is the world’s best No.8. He was everywhere. In defence, in attack and played a real Captains’ role. Hard to believe the man has 101 caps. For Wales, Tulepa (‘Don’t call me Toby”) Faletau also was impressive, perhaps the pick of the Welsh forwards. His play around the breakdowns won Wales two crucial penalties and his ball carrying was also very impressive.

Last year, Jamie Heaslip lost the plot and had a poor tournament. So in Dublin, it was great to see him deservedly pick out the Man of the Match award. Again – a dominant display of the art of the No. 8. Dave Denton from Scotland also had a strong game and only the efforts of 3 Irish defenders stopped him from scoring in the first half. With hindsight, perhaps the one incident which swung the game towards Ireland.

Still – enough of week 1, let’s look forward to this weekend’s encounters:

IRELAND v WALES

Ireland looked strong and back to there best in beating a disappointing Scotland in the Dublin sunshine. Sexton and Murray bossed the halfbacks, and the Kearney brothers were the pick of the Three quarters. Rob Kearney in particular back to his best. Up front, the aforementioned Heaslip was backed up strongly by Cian Healy and the excellent Chris Henry. There were times when one was thinking Sean Who? Ireland not missing the injured Sean O’Brien.  Joe Schmidt has done a great job in a short time in turning Ireland around.

Wales looked rusty but lets not panic yet. The final score flattered Italy with their first try coming off a clear forward pass, and the second a good interception off sloppy predictable passing by Halfpenny. Roberts looked strong. North and Cuthbert didn’t really get in the game but are still very powerful and will cause Ireland some sleepless nights.  I thought the much-criticised Rhys Priestland had an excellent game. It hard for me to believe the vitriol he got on many forums and social media sites. The lad just can’t win.

This weekend’s clash will be won or lost in the pack. I am very excited to see how the two front rows measure up. Wales did not seem to cope well with the new scrimmaging changes and whether or not Gethin Jenkins and Adam Jones can get the better of Healy and Ross could be decisive.

In the second row, Ireland are massively boosted by the return of Paul O’Connell while Alun Wynne-Jones was very impressive last week with both line out and ball carrying.  The back rows look evenly matched and penalty kicks will be crucial. The recall of Warburton was inevitable as Justin Tipuric looked lightweight and out of sorts last week. 

If Wales can keep the ball and find the space to get their huge backs moving then they can win the game. Last year, Ireland caught Wales asleep in the first half and never looked back despite a late Welsh come back.

The choice of Wayne Barnes as referee will be a concern for Ireland. Many will not forget his late penalty two years ago, which enabled Wales to sneak a narrow victory. The controversial Lions selections of Warren Gatland have made him a hate figure and Ireland will want to win desperately as the crowd has been baying for blood.

In the end – I don’t see Wales scoring two tries and that is what will be needed to win. Ireland to triumph again. I hope I am wrong on this one and the dragon  prevails...

IRELAND 23 WALES 19

SCOTLAND v ENGLAND 

What can you say about Scotland other than what a disappointment they were in Dublin. Kelly Brown has paid the price of failure and is one of three changes by Scotland with Chris Pisaro getting a debut cap and Matt Scott replacing Duncan Taylor at centre, with wing Tommy Seymour coming in for the injured Sean Maitland.

You simply can’t have 60% possession in the first half and not go in leading at half time. The loss of Sean Maitland is a big one and it is vary hard to see Scotland bouncing back despite their historic great record over England at Murrayfield. The Calcutta Cup is usually a great event, especially at Murrayfield where despite overwhelming odds, Scotland have a great record over the English.

Greig Laidlaw takes over the Captaincy and his metronomic boot may be all that keeps Scotland in it.  Stuart Hogg was one of the few bright spots of last week’s debacle and if he can get moving forward, then Scotland could possibly cause a few faster beating hearts in the English.

England were simply very unlucky in Paris. A slow start was damaging but Lancaster’s experimental side showed great heart and almost pulled off the win.  I am pleased to see Jonny May get another start and the young Exeter winger Nowell bounced back strongly to give a fine display after a mistake gifted France an early score. Mike Brown had his usual reliable game at full back and Danny Care laid down a strong marker at Scrum half to make the No.9 jersey his own with a strong display.

Elsewhere, the Centre combination of Twelvetrees and Burrell was a disappointment. I for one was calling for the combination and it didn’t work. Twelvetrees in particular, was disappointing. Maybe he just doesn’t have it at international level. He had two poor games in the autumn and this one wasn’t much better.

The Lancaster regime is certainly spotting talent early and his choice of three-quarters is unbelievable. England seem to have a winger factory and are producing some excellent talent.

In the forwards, Lawes has a strong game along with Billy Vunipola. If Scotland have any chance they have to win in the pack but it’s hard to see with the dropping of Kelly Brown and Richie Grey – a Lion in the summer – not even making the bench. Strange decisions in my eyes.

I see England running riot with at least 4 tries. A rout is on the cards I’m afraid.

SCOTLAND 9 ENGLAND 36

FRANCE v ITALY

Italy had a strong game in Cardiff and will be very difficult to beat in Rome. Parisse was the pick of the forwards as expected, but Italy now have an impressive back line with Centre Campagnaro grabbing the attention with two tries. At Tomasso Allen and Luke McLean were also impressive and if Italy can handle the Paris pressure then we could have a great match on the cards.

France were impressive but as usual, their penchant for giving away penalties and defensive weaknesses hurt them against England. Fofana was impressive despite tight marking and Huget had a great game on the wing. He was the scapegoat last year so it is good to see him also bounce back this year with a strong performance.  Jules Plisson had a mixed game at Outside half and needs to do better if we wants to retain the shirt long term.

Yannick Nyanga was marauding around the fringes against England and his ball carrying was very impressive. Veteran Pascal Pape will secure solid line out ball but overall in the pack, arguably, Italy may have the edge.

The Italian front row of Rizzo, Ghiraldini and Castrogiovanni will cause France some issues in the scrum and Italy need to secure as much possession as possible because with the ball in hand, the unpredictable French backs could boss the game.  I see a tight competition for much of the match but France should have the edge with the Home crowd behind them to sneak it. France by 2 scores.

FRANCE 26 ITALY 16