Six
Nations 2014 starts next weekend with this year’s competition looking to be
perhaps one of the tightest ever. It is undoubtedly going to be a tournament
where men will be asked to step up to another level as the pride of wearing your
Country’s jersey on the field of battle draws near. The autumn international
were disanointing for all of the Northern Hemisphere’s finest except for the
proud red rose of England. Whilst we have seen constant bickering over European
club rugby it is not time to put that aside and gird the loins for the world’s
greatest rugby competition. Your correspondent is back aiming to be providing
even more insightful views and punditry. Lets see how I see the teams will
perform this championship:
ENGLAND
England
had a strong autumn with a good win over Australia and a narrow loss to the All
Blacks. They came into last year’s tournament with a similar strong autumn and
challenged for the title. Will they keep the momentum going into this
tournament with another strong championship? I have to say they will and are on
track to have a strong World Cup squad for 2015, Last year England looked like
the real deal going into Cardiff but flattered to deceive with a really bad day
at the office. With hindsight, the cracks were there through the five rounds
and a narrow scrapped win over Italy was followed by the capitulation in
Cardiff.
How
have they built since then? Well all is looking strong in most positions
although Coach Lancaster must still have doubts over the halfbacks, centres,
and hooker but have has a strong array of talent to choose from and the
strength in depth should be on his side. Lets start with the backs.
The
loss of Tuigali (again) is not perhaps the big loss it appears. I am not a fan
of the smash/kill Centre tactics and if Lancaster plays his cards right he
could have a very strong set of backs.
Mike Brown has been in scintillating form for the Quins, and he must
start as the prime full back. That is unfortunate for the talented Alex Goode
but Brown is a shoe in for me. On the wings, Chris, Ashton will scrap in due to
the absence of the excellent Marlond Yarde and Christian Wade, whilst Jonny May
of Gloucester shows good pace and finishing and Anthony Watson from Bath may
well be the wild card choice, At centres, Jonathan Joseph has looked very
strong and his absence through injury give Luther Burrell a real chance. The autumn combination of Joel Tomkins and
Twelvetrees just didn’t work. I would like to see Lancaster put Twelvetrees and
Burrell together but if not then Matt Hopper from Quins may well get the green
light with either of Burrell or Twelvetrees at 12.
At Outside Half, Owen Farrell, has
yet to show real consistency and if he doesn’t show early, then I believe Lancaster
will blood the excellent George Ford. He has been very consistent for Bath and
a real talent.
At scrum half; Ben Youngs will likely get the nod ahead of Care and Dickson. Noon of the three have impressed me this season and I think this is a problem area for England. The backs will need quick ball and none of the choices is inspiring.
In the pack, Hartley has shown
more consistency with his throwing and so should get the nod ahead of Tom Youngs.
England have a plethora of world class second rows but I think front row may
have a few issues. With Corbisero’s absence, I have not been impressed with either
Joe Marler or David Wilson although Dan Cole continues to grow in stature and
Mako Vunipola, whilst strong in open play is still a questionable scrummager. The Guv’nor Geoff Parling is a massive loss
and with his long-term absence I expect Courtney Lawes and Launchbury to be the
first choice if they stay fit. In the back row Billy Vunipola and Tom Wood
will join Captain Robshaw.
England
has a fantastic record in Paris and has nothing to fear but I feel they will
come up second best against the French. Wins will follow in all the other
matches with revenge over Wales perhaps the sweetest. In the end if will come
down to points and tries scored as England will tie on 4 wins.
Predicted
Finish: 1st but no Grand Slam
FRANCE
France
were so bad last year it was frightening just how far they fell from grace. However,
you can never write them off and they had a reasonable autumn running the All Blacks
very close and blooding lots of new men.
The
absence of Thierry Dusautoir is a massive loss and the French squad lacks
experience with more new caps likely than any other team. The exciting Jules Plisson has been a revelation at Stade Français
and must
be the starter at 10. Remi Tales has also impressed this season and France for once
look to have options at half backs. In the threequaretrs, Wesley Fofana and
Florian Fritz look to continue their centre partnership and France, as always,
have many talented wingers and full backs to choose from. Up front is where
France will be questionable.
Louis
Picamoles has not been in the best form and with Dusautoir out, Yannick Nyanga
will have to take on a bigger role in the back three. The French scrum will be
solid and will certainly test England, but expect lots of penalties and
questionable fitness.
I
believe France will finally put to bed their Stade de France horror record
against England will follow that with a comfortable home win against Italy. The
fixture fairy has been kind to les bleus with two home games but the freezing
Friday encounter in Cardiff. Wales will win that encounter and then it is a
tough trip to Scotland before Ireland to finish. Expect 4 wins and they will
challenge England hard for the title. Bridesmaids again when the table is
completed.
Predicted
Finish: 2nd
IRELAND
Last
season, Ireland destroyed Wales in the opening game and then frankly fell
apart. The lowest point coming with defeat to Italy. New coach Joe Schmidt will go into his first
Six Nations with the aim of restoring faith in the Irish side and there will be
lots of pride for the men in green to rub Gatland’s nose in the dirt and embarrass
Wales in Dublin.
The
Irish provinces are again on fire in the Heineken Cup and they should have high
confidence coming into the competition but they had a poor autumn other than
against New Zealand, and injuries and age are taking their toll on the side.
Schmidt needs to be bold with his selections. Ian Keatley may be a wild card
choice over the ageing Sexton as Madigan is unproven at the highest level.
The
loss of Sean O’Brien is a massive one in the pack as are Tommy Bowe and Keith
Earls in the backs. Time for some of the younger players to come through and I
expect Schmidt to make a few surprises with Ulster’s Craig Gilroy and Luke
Fitzgerald likely to be the two wingers of choice. O’Driscoll still can’t
forget his Lions omission and he has been in fine form.
Personally,
I feel Ireland don’t have the strength in depth and are ageing rapidly. The
excellent Robin Coupland has been man of the season at Cardiff Blues and
Schmidt should give him a run out in at least one game. Heaslip has a lot to
prove after a poor tournament last year and a mediocre Lions tour. It is hard
to see Ireland worrying either England or France for the title. They open with
an easy victory over Scotland before facing Wales at Dublin. A narrow win over
Wales will be followed by a defeat to England, a win over Italy and more
heartache with a loss to the French. Three wins and mid table mediocrity.
Predicted
Finish: 4th
ITALY
Italy
had an excellent tournament last year with great wins over Ireland and France
and a narrow defeat to England. They had a very disappointing autumn with heavy
defeats to both Argentina and Australia. Sergio Parisse and his team will be
keen to put that behind them and will entre this Six Nations full of optimism. Unfortunately
it will not be fulfilled. They have not progressed sufficiently to challenge
any of the top 4 nations and I fear they will have a disappointing competition.
The
fixture draw has not been kind to them and they start with difficult away games
to Wales and France. Two defeats before they host Scotland, which once again
remains their most likely chance of any result. You really don’t see them
winning in Dublin and England will have Championship spoils in their nostrils
when they face up in Rome. So one win at best is what we can see.
The
evergreen Parisse has passed his 100 caps and will be the rock again behind the
team is built. The retirement of LoCicero and the ageing Bergamasco and
Castrogriovani remain solid performers but time is catching up with them and it
is critical they blood new players.
Tommasso Allen and Michele Camopagnaro look like good young prospects
and lets hope they can bring their youthful exuberance to the tricolors.
Predicted
Finish: 5th – One Win
SCOTLAND
Scotland
had their best Six Nations for many years in 2013 but have really failed to
kick on. Quite frankly they were absolutely dire in the autumn game against
South Africa.
Coach
Scott Johnson is talking a good game and he has had the good sense to make the
excellent Kelly Brown as his Captain for this competition. The losses of Tim Visser and Ewan Murray are
big ones and Scotland will once again have to call on a dwindling number of
ageing veterans. John Beattie and John Barclay will have to carry the team in
many games. Dave Denton is not the player he was two years ago and Scotland may
well struggle with the new scrum laws.
It
is such a familiar looking squad with few new talents emerging. Weir and
Laidlaw are solid if unspectacular at half backs and their threequarters are hard
to break but will not out fear into the opposition in the same way that a Jamie
Roberts does for Wales or a Brian O’Driscoll for Ireland. Expect dogged, grindy
performances.
An
opening trip to Dublin is not really the start the doctor ordered and that is
followed by the auld enemy England. Scotland will be hoping for a cold wet day and
a rusty England but I don’t see it. England just have too much talent.
Hard
to see wins after that against France or Wales and Italy away will be their
rourkes drift moment. No wins and a wooden spoon I’m afraid.
Predicted
finish: 6th Wooden Spoon
WALES
Wales
once again look like a country and a team in total disarray. The civil war
situation between the WRU and the regional teams is tearing the sport apart and
they y have completely failed to stop the player drain to France with Leigh
Halfpenny the latest to depart.
Again,
a poor autumn and the Welsh Regions have a awful Heineken Cup. Sounds like déjà
vu. Wasn’t this the same story last year?
Wales
will be pushing for a third consecutive Six Nations title. They have had
significant injury problems like all the squads but the depth is there to give
them a fighting chance. With three home games, Wales will give a solid
performance and may well yet be in with a shout of the title, early results
will be key.
The
return of Jamie Roberts is a huge boost as is the news that Jonathan Davies may
also be back to face England and Scotland at the end of tournament. Captain
Warburton has been a long term absentee but the excellent Tipuric will seize
his chance and Wales still have huge riches.
I
think Gatland will be bold with his selections. Halfpenney and Cuthbert are
shoe ins but expect a surprise with either Liam Williams or Hallom Amos
starting on the wing and George North at centre alongside Jamie Roberts. The
outside berth is still open with a fag paper in-between Priestland and Biggar.
Priestland for me with Mike Philips taking his customary scrum half role.
I
the pack, injuries to Ryan Jones, Richard Hibbard and Gethin Jenkins will force
changes whilst the stupidity of Ian Evans red card and 12 week ban is a another
big loss. Wales will need to find heart as I fear their pack will be under a lot
of pressure with a misfiring line out and creaking scrum.
A
good win over Italy will be followed by a narrow defeat in Dublin. It is hard
to bet against England winning at Twickenham but Wales should also win all there
at home. Three wins then and 3rd place.
Predicted
Finish: 3rd
Opening
weekend’s predictions:
Wales
26 Italy 6
France
21 England 18
Ireland
32 Scotland 9
