SIX NATIONS 2014 - FINAL THOUGHTS

Now the tournament is over for another year – just a few final thoughts and comments on this year’s competition.

Personally – I think it was one of the best competitions given the extremely tight finish in the table with 3 teams in the running for the title right up to the final whistle. Your correspondent is feeling rather pleased with 13 matches correctly judged or an 86.66% success rate. Despite the closeness of the teams in the league table, the matches themselves were not necessarily close. The spread between the teams over 15 matches was 263 points – an average of > 17points per match. Of the 15 matches, 11 also went with home advantage – only the Italians losing two matches at home in the vast soulless bowl which is the Stadio Olympico.

So lets move on to look at the winners and losers of the tournament and final conclusions:

Team of the Tournament – Ireland

England look like moving forward at every level and narrowly lost out on the championship again. However, they do not take the best team award and are bridesmaids again. This time Ireland came of age. To come back for a wretched 2013 competition and win this year’s title was a major achievement for Ireland. To do so without really playing that well was an even better achievement.

Ireland saved their best performance to humiliate and destroy Wales in Dublin by outplaying and out thinking their opponents. They put Scotland and Italy to the sword and did enough to beat France despite arguably being not the better team on the day. They also pushed England very close and were only 3 points off a Grand Slam. So hats off to Ireland and fitting tribute for Brian O’Driscoll as he retires for the international stage.

Coach of the Tournament – Joe Schmidt

Joe Schmidt showed great intelligence throughout the tournament adding a fresh perspective to arguably a tired Ireland team. The first signs of the new dynasty started in the autumn and they were not encouraging. Ireland struggled against Australia but quickly rallied to scare the All Blacks before coming into this tournament as underdogs albeit confident ones. The clever way they out-thought Wales has to be put down to intelligent coaching. Despite the claims from Stuart Lancaster, Schmidt is the governor this term.

Biggest Flop of the Tournament – Wales & Warren Gatland

Have Wales been found out? There was great confidence in the principality for Wales to go one and win a third straight title. Despite a poor autumn, and the continued civil war between clubs and WRU; the Six Nations gave the Welsh a reason to be optimistic for the future. Wales were disappointing to say the least. A poor start against Italy was followed up by the debacle in Dublin. A dominant win over France was followed up by dismal uninspired play against England. Stuart Hogg’s red mist moment gave the Welsh a great win but over a stuttering Scotland. Did it just paper over the cracks? 

Gatland is a great coach but his continued loyalty to certain players – Priestland and Lydiate – to name but two; in the face of a loss of form shows poor judgment and vision. With a year and a bit to go to the World Cup – Wales should be seriously concerned. The U20 team has had a mixed Six Nations and their coaching and game planning needs a refresh. Can Gatland turn it around? We will see. But I fear a few years of underachievement ahead for the dragon.

Where do we go now award – Scotland & Italy

Seriously both teams were a bitter disappointment. Scotland especially showed limited vision and no real game plan. The new coach cannot come soon enough as the basic talents are there albeit in a small squad. They should be doing better.

As for Italy – what an awful tournament. They started strongly against Wales but in hindsight – that was probably more down to Wales paying poorly than Italy playing well. They competed for 50 minutes against France before falling away in the last 30 minutes. The loss against Scotland in Rome was clearly devastating to Italian morale and they gave up trying in the final two games. Where do they go from here? With Parisse, Bergamasco, and Castrogiovanni all coming to the end of their careers – you have to fear for the future of Italy. The continued presence of Italian teams in the Rabo 12 is important for their future but it is going to be a long time before we see a recovery.

TEAM OF THE TOURNAMENT

Full Back – Mike Brown

The player of the Six Nations. He really came of age this season with solid performances in every game.

Wings – Yohan Huget & Andrew Trimble

Huget was France’s best player and looked dangerous in every game. Trimble is the quiet man of Irish rugby. The Ulsterman took his chance with the injuries to Tommy Bowe, Simon Zebo and Keith Earls and had a great tournament.

Centres – Luther Burrell & Jamie Roberts

No Brian O’Driscoll I’m afraid. I can’t be that nostalgic. Burrell was excellent for England and getting better every game. Roberts – the rock for Wales gave 100% in every match and was the only Welsh player to be noticeable in every match even the fiasco in Ireland.

Half Backs – Jonny Sexton & Danny Care

Sexton was the catalyst behind all the Irish moves. He controls the game so well and is best outside half in the Northern Hemisphere by some distance. Danny care finally came of age and shed his bad boy image. His speed of distribution was good and he controlled the England back line. A great tournament for him and England.

Front Row – Cian Healey, Dimitri Szarzewski & Mike Ross

The Irish props stood up to everyone in the scrummage and were powerful in the loose. In a world where poor line out throwing is the norm, Szarzewski was the one hooker that stood out. No Dylan Hartley I’m afraid – he gave away far too many penalties – especially against Wales. Rory Best is still not really dominating games, and the Welsh pretenders Owens and Hibbard too inconsistent. So controversial choice but the Frenchman with eth film star looks gets the nod.

Second Row – Courtney Lawes & Joe Launchbury

England has the best engine room bar none and Lawes finally came of age in this tournament backed up by the physical presence that is Joe Launchbury. Alun Wyn Jones was impressive for Wales but looks a little tired after a long 12 months.

Back Row – Peter O’Mahoney, Sergio Parisse, & Sam Warburton

The Six Nations is the place to be for world-class back row forwards. Chris Robshaw led England well and others also were impressive. Heaslip and Chris Henry for Ireland, Billy Vuniola impressed in his 3 games for England but it when it comes down to it the three selected were in my opinion; the best in this year’s competition. Peter O’Mahoney was outstanding in every game he played. Sergio Parisse remains World Class and he played well despite being in a weakened and demoralized Italian side. Warburton grew with confidence and composure in every game and was outstanding against France and Scotland and the only Welsh forward to enhance his reputation against England.

Concluding remarks

So that's it for another 12 months. Another great tournament with all the highs and lows of being a rugby fan. Rugby raconteur will be taking a closed season to recover and will be back in the autumn.

SIX NATIONS 2014 – THE FINAL FURLONG

So we reach the final weekend of what has been yet another exciting tournament. The Six Nations really is the greatest rugby competition on the planet and the local rivalries and intensity and passions of the encounters makes it simply unmissable.

With just the final weekend to go, your correspondent is feeling rather smug. With only 1 mistake – currently I have 11 out of 12 results predicted accurately.  Only Scotland’s unexpected win in Rome being the only hiccup on a perfect record. More surprisingly, the predicted gap between the teams – “the spread” in other words - is also close – only 10 points difference between the predictions and reality.

		RR Predicted Spread	Actual Match result Spread
Wales	Italy	20	8
France	England	3	2
Ireland	Scotland	23	22
Ireland	Wales	4	23
France	Italy	10	20
Scotland	England	27	20
Italy	Scotland	14	1
Wales	France	2	21
England	Ireland	3	3
Scotland	France	13	2
England	Wales	9	11
Ireland	Italy	34	39
TOTALS		162	172

So lets get down to the final weekend and see what is in store for us this week. Such is the tightness of the championship, that two replicas of the trophy have been made – one in Rome and the other in Paris.

Ireland must start as favourites to win the trophy as they sit top of the table with a points difference of 81 versus 32 for England and 3 for France. Quite simple really, Ireland win and it’s their trophy. Lose and England will win assuming they do not fall on the final banana skin in Rome. Lets see how we call the final matches.

ITALY v ENGLAND

 England will want to finish strongly and wipe away the memories of a poor game versus the Azzuri at Twickenham last year where England really only just squeaked home. This year – it is almost unthinkable that England will not win comfortably. They have really come of age this season. Putting both Ireland and Wales to the sword in consecutive matches.

Danny Care and Mike Brown have been the clear stand out players of the tournament and there is a growing confidence in their young guns too. Burrell and Twelvetrees had their best game as a partnership against Wales out-playing and out thinking their far more experienced Lions rivals. Nowell and May are still learning their trade but look confident and fearless.

The English pack, whilst not the rock of previous years; managed to see off the challenges of the more highly rated packs of both Celtic nations and a deserved Triple Crown last weekend really was a crowning moment for this young side.

For Italy, they really struggled without Parisse last weekend in Dublin. The rout that followed was predicted but it was disappointing to see how badly they have faded as this tournament ahs gone on. It is not that long ago that they excited and surprised many people (me included) with a string showing against Wales. Hindsight is a wonderful thing, but I think its just showed how poor Wales are right now rather than a sign of Italian greatness.

Parisse returns to captain the side this weekend in an Italian side showing a surprising 3 changes. I would have expected more given how they threw the towel in to the ring in Dublin. It is hard to see them raising their game against an England team with solid momentum.

England will dominate the game with strong defence and some exciting attacking but it will be more of a grind than pretty champagne rugby. The Stadio Olympico will be smothered in White and expect a high scoring game.

Italy 9 England 30

Wales v Scotland

 Poor Wales looked devoid of flair and ideas against a well-drilled England side. The team really looks lost and don’t seem to have grasped that the world has moved one. Warren Gatland looks about as much in touch of reality as Clive Woodward’s ill-fated Lion’s coaching experience – not recognizing how things have changed really shows poor leadership and a lack of ideas.

The famed “Warrenball” tactics of Wales have been found out and the new referee interpretations aren’t helping. For the game plan to work, it requires Wales to physically dominate their opponents and grind them down. The tactic of aimless down-the-throat kicking didn’t work against Kearney and Ireland and was another dismal failure against England.

Only Leigh Halfpenny’s metronomic boot saved Wales from an even greater humiliation at HQ and his absence this weekend could lead to Wales facing a very tough challenge this weekend against a Scotland team growing in confidence.

Six changes for Wales – two forced and none of them are really inspiring that things will change. Liam Williams comes in for Halfpenny at Full Back at a time when Wales are crying out for the flair and invention for James Hook. Like Trinh-Duc in France, Hook just doesn’t seem to register with the Welsh coaches and the selection of Williams is a real cop out in my view.

There are changes at halfbacks where Dan Biggar finally gets a chance to replace the lost little boy that Rhys Priestland has become in the red jersey. Mike Philips returns to replace the injured Rhys Webb who was another to have an extremely poor game last weekend after a lively debut against France. They can't possibly do any worse than the "Rhys" pairing and I expect Biggar to act far more intelligently with his kicking and Mike Philips - under pressure for his place - needs a big game.

In the pack, Gethin Jenkins is retained despite his second yellow card last weekend to earn his 105^th cap. He really has been a victim of some interesting refereeing interpretations and after a week of claiming he has been victimized, the Welsh coaches felt they owed him another chance and I applaud that decision. He is joined in the front row by two Scarlets – Ken Owens and Rhodri Jones. Owens right gets the start after Hibbard’s scud-like line out throwing accuracy but how on earth Rhodri Jones gets picked ahead of his club mate Samson Lee beggars belief. Hibbard and Adam Jones are rightly dropped after inconsistent form in all 4 matches to date. Luke Charteris returns ahead of the promising Jake Ball – another contentious change that makes little sense, while the failing Dan Lydiate again amazingly retains his place ahead of Justin Tipuric.

I really fear Wales will blow it with this team. Too safe, too boring and a missed opportunity to change direction. One has to fear for the future of this side.

What of Scotland? The Win over Italy was followed up with a strong game against France that Scotland will be kicking themselves that they didn’t win. How much psychological damage that causes remains to be seen, and coach Scott Johnson makes 3b changes with the unlucky Johnny Beattie out injured replaced by Ryan Wilson and two changes at winger with Max Evans and the Edinburgh flyer Dougie Fife making his debut in place of Tommy Seymour and Sean Lamont.

Wales have only lost once to Scotland in their last twelve meetings but Scotland seem to always make a fight of it at Cardiff. Expect Wales to scrape out a win but it will be far from convincing.

Wales 20 Scotland 16

France v Ireland

 Well I have to eat my words. Last week, I criticised Brian O’Driscoll of not being the player of old and he goes out and singlehandedly rips Italy apart. Will we see a fairy tale ending in Paris with O’Driscoll bowing out his long and distinguished career with a final championship?

If they do, then it will be an amazing turnaround from the Ireland, which spectacularly fell apart just 12 months ago. Coach Joe Schmidt has brought in new blood and new coaching methods and the results are very impressive. Just the narrow loss to England blemishing a potential grand slam this season.

Can Ireland raise their game and win in France? The history is against them with only one win in 42 years in Paris.  Just one change for Ireland with Peter O’Mahony returning in the back row after his hamstring scare kept him out of the last match. There are significant changes on the bench, which shows Schmidt is not a prisoner to history and the recall of Ian Madigan somewhat of a surprise on a bench which shows invention and options should they be required.

France were again pretty awful away from home in Murrayfield and lady luck gave them the narrowest of wins against the run of play. Still you have to take your chances and France certainly did that. For this final match in Paris, Louis Picamoles is recalled to the side, which shows four changes. Remi Tales is preferred to the stuttering Jules Plisson at Fly Half, Dimitri Szarzewski is recalled at hooker and the exciting Gael Fickou gets an outing at Centre.

Can France win and shatter Irish dreams? The form doesn’t say so with such poor form shown in the last two matches but Paris is a difficult place to win and France always have at least one good game in them every championship. The battle in the scrums and breakdowns will be key and here Ireland probably have the edge. In the backs, Huget has been very impressive all season and they back three can all attack a lose kick and make you pay for silly mistakes. 

I am going to controversial and stick to my original feeling that the luck of the Irish will run out and they will once again fail in Paris.

France 23 Ireland 22

England’s championship and champagne this season and deservedly so!

SIX NATIONS 2014 – ROUND 4 – TIME TO STAND UP!

As we reach Round four for the 2014 Six nations, I think it is time to pause for reflection on what we have seen so far as I think it sets the scene nicely for the titanic battles ahead of us this weekend.

Your correspondent is having a good contest – only Scotland’s brave comeback against Italy spoiled what would have been 100% accurate predictions of the games so far. What was less predictable has been the margins of victory. When you assess the prospects of the teams before the matches it is almost impossible to predict the margins of victory. I must admit that the gaps between the teams have been quite surprising but its clear a tight game does not necessarily mean a close game. In this era of increasingly miserly defences, a single try scoring opportunity can be the difference between winning and losing.

The other factor, which is perhaps underplayed, is the benefit of home advantage. Of the nine matches to date, only two – Scotland’s lamentable performance against England; and Italy’s narrow loss to Scotland have gone against home advantage. England’s problem; and Wales’s too for that matter; has been an inability to reproduce form away from home. Its one thing to win in front of 70,000 of your own passionate supporters; it is quiet another to enter a lions den and win away as New Zealand have found out on their recent visits to Twickenham and Dublin.

The other area which is key is that no team can afford to go 10 points down and come back to win. Wales crumbled to a 16 point deficit in Dublin and never recovered, likewise France struggled to get back against Wales who opened an early 11 point gap. There simply isn't the time or space to play catch-up rugby these days. 

This weekend is all about the Triple Crown match at HQ and the other two matches fade into insignificance – so I will apologise now for a primary focus on the biggest game – England v Wales.

ENGLAND v WALES

This match – like most years is almost too close to call. I feel a sense of déjà vu coming on as didn’t I say that last year before Wales record win? The reality is England v Wales games are always tight, tense games but the recent history does not show narrow margins of victory. The average over the past 10 meetings between the teams has been 12 points – which is not close at all. At HQ, England’s recent record since 2006 against Wales has been 3 wins and 2 defeats whilst Wales home record is more convincing with 4 wins and 2 defeats. Not sure you draw any conclusions from all this statistical nonsense but it at least shows both teams unhealthy obsession with the other.

The Darts legend Phil Taylor made a great quote in the 2013 World Championship when he was told that Raymond Van Barneveld when interviewed said he didn’t fear Taylor any longer. The Power’s response summed it all up with “I think he does – otherwise why say it”. The reason I bring this up as all week, England player after England player has been interviewed saying they don’t fear Wales and revenge is on the cards for last year’s hiding. I think deep down they are fearful of coming off the rails again – this time at home against the dragon.

Wales have the weight of an entire nation on their shoulders who expect almost demand; a superhuman effort against the English. They are pretty much as full strength although the fitness of the returning Jonathan Davies and Alun Wyn Jones cannot be all that great. With Jenkins and Warburton seemingly back to full fitness and match awareness, the Welsh will be confident with 2 wins at Twickenham in their last three matches there.

For England – with the World Cup looming, they have to win and win convincingly. Just one change forced on Lancaster as England also shows loyalty and a stable team line up with Gloucester’s Ben Morgan coming in for the injured Vunipola. The narrow win over Ireland showed great heart and teamwork in grinding out a win and the fragility shown in recent seasons looks like a distant memory. Mike Brown has been sublime at full back and Danny Care has been a revelation at scrum half – probably the stand out player of this championship.

For me, the game will be won or lost in the forwards. Both teams will concede lots of penalties. England at the scrums, Wales at the breakdown and rolling maul. Stuart Lancaster and Graham Rowntree will have clearly seen how badly Wales performed in those areas in Dublin and England will want to challenge Wales up front. 

At front row, Wales look to have the clear edge. Jones and Jenkins were both dominant against France and with the watchful eye of referee Romain Poite – a renowned scrimmage assessor; they will feel confident of giving Marler and Wilson a torrid time. In the 2^nd Row, England have the edge. The power of Lawes and Launchbury clearly stands apart from the beanpole Charteris and the questionable fitness of Wyn Jones.  In the back row – things are evenly matched. Both Robshaw and Warburton need to stand up and have big games. Warburton was superb against France whilst Robshaw has been dependable and a resolute leader for the men in white. Wood and Lydiate will cancel either other out while England will miss the power of Vunipola at No.8 and Wales will be relying on Faletau as a key ball carrier.

At halfbacks, England has the edge. Care, as mentioned earlier has been outstanding and has provided much cleaner, quicker ball to the England back line. Farrell remains an enigma for me. I’m not sure he is good enough for England to really get the benefit of their three-quarter line. Rhys Webb looked sharp against France and deservedly given another outing. Priestland is lucky to be there and he still looks like a frighten rabbit when the pressure comes on him but his defensive prowess probably gives him the edge over Dan Bigger.

In the three quarters – it is an intriguing match up. Roberts has been playing well and with the returning Davies, North returns to the wing. Twelvetrees and Burrell need big games or risk being dominated by the more experienced, more powerful Welsh Centres.

The young England wingers have been impressive and give England options that were not there last season with real wingers able to switch play and hopeful confuse their opposite numbers. Hwovere, both Nowell and May have also made mistakes at crucial times and they cannot afford any slip-ups against the Welsh.

For Wales, Cuthbert is underrated and North is till a very dangerous runner with ball in hand. At full back, Mike Brown rains supreme this season whilst Halfpenny has been more subdued against Ireland and Italy but had more openings against France. A little too early to write him off and I do feel Halfpenny will have a strong game.

So – its cock-on-block time. Who will win? It depends really on which Welsh team will turn up.- the meek lambs from Dublin or the fire-breathing dragons from the French game?  I fear the pressure will be too much for Wales and momentum right now is very much with England. Home advantage will tell. Reluctantly, I will call an England victory.

ENGLAND 26 WALES 17

IRELAND V ITALY

The Irish will be disappointed to lose against England having competed strongly for most of the match. A welcome return to Dublin will see confidence high and they will be hoping for a strong show and convincing victory over a jaded looking Italian side.

Coach Joe Schmidt has stayed with largely the same team – only injuries leading to a solitary change with Henderson in for the stricken O’Mahony. I have to say I haven’t been that impressed with Ireland other than the way they out thought a lumpen Welsh team. They didn’t dominate against Scotland and despite hammering Wales – they really didn’t play that well – it was more a case of how badly Wales performed. O’Driscoll is undropable but is he really the best Ireland can play at Centre right now? I don’t really think so. Its more nostalgia and I would have liked to see Schmidt grow a pair and make some changes for this match.

Where Ireland have impressed as been in the front row with four world class props who will have no fear of the famed Italian scrimmage. Devin Toner has impressed in eth 2^nd Row and Chris Henry in the back row. Sexton continues to be the best fly half in the Lions nations and they have enough firepower in the three-quarters to put Italy to the sword.

For Italy; after the promise shown against Wales and France; the home defeat in Rome to Scotland must have been crushing to their morale and confidence. I really don’t think it suits Italy playing in the Stadio Olympico. The vast bowl allows far more away fans to attend and it lacks the crowd on the pitch feel of eth old Flaminio. It’s rather like watching Southampton at football. A pretty team but how much more successful would they be playing at the old Dell rather than the antiseptic all seater St. Mary’s?

Italy need to regroup and fast. Parisse and Zanni are devastating losses for them in the back row and Tommaso Allen pays the price for an inconsistent game against Scotland. It is hard to be optimistic here and Italy have not won in Dublin since 1997, and never in the Six Nations. History is not going to change. Irish rout pending.

IRELAND 43 ITALY 9

SCOTLAND V FRANCE

Scotland showed great heart and character coming back from behind to win in Rome.  I have to say I never saw that happening but hats off to them it showed solid teamwork and they will go into this match with high confidence of a win over France. What on earth is going on with their selection strategy though?

Kelly Brown is recalled at Captain and Dave Denton is rightfully back at No.8 and Johnny Beattie is retained – moving to flanker after a commanding performance in Rome. 

Elsewhere – Scotland show more stability in their back line which is solid if a little bereft of flair and ideas. Duncan Weir had a solid game against Italy and the Gloucester-bound Laidlaw will punish France for any misdemeanors within kicking range with metronomic accuracy. 

For France, they were simply woeful against Wales and didn’t really show anything during that debacle in Cardiff. Louis Picamoles was the most notable absentee player against Wales tacked out of the game by a winger and he pays the price for his stupidity with his sarcastic response to a yellow card. One has to applaud Saint- Andre for this brave decision to drop him. His statement that "Certain attitudes have no place whatsoever in our sport." sends a clear message that player behavior disrespecting officials cannot be tolerated in our game.

France make seven changes in total for the clash at Murrayfield. I’m not sure many of them really strengthen the French cause. Losing both Keyser and Szarzewski at hooker is a big loss and the back row also looks very strange with little to make Scotland fearful.  The cumbersome Sebastien Vahaamahina has not impressed in any of his previous outings and the combination with Alexandre Lapandry and Damian Chouly will have Denton, Brown and Beattie licking their lips at the opportunity ahead of them to dominate the French back row.

France also loses two of their best players with Fofana and Nyanga out. The experienced Maxime Mermoz who is a talented player in his own right but does not have the X factor, which makes Fofana such a class act, replaces Fofana.

I believe Saint-Andre has it right recalling Machenaud at Scrum half as Doussain has not impressed in his three games so far and is lucky to retain a place on the bench ahead of Morgan Parra. Elsewhere Hugo Bonneval will feel disappointed to be dropped for Maxime Medard who at least adds experience and will know his team mate Huget well enough to allow them to change positions and add creativity to the French back place which was so lamentable in Cardiff.

Scotland will have high confidence but France are unbeaten in the last seven games against Scotland and Murrayfield should hold no fear. French win but it won’t be pretty.

SCOTLAND 11 FRANCE 24