Six Nations Final Thoughts – The End is Nigh!

Six Nations Final Thoughts – The End is Nigh!

As the 2016 Six Nations came to a close, Rugby Raconteur is contemplating the future. This blog has now been in place for seven seasons. What began as a bit of fun between friends has become a big task with lots of research to complete and weekly deadlines to meet. This year has been especially challenging with work deadlines and travel making things difficult and challenging. So this may be the very last Rugby Raconteur blog.  Who knows what the future may hold? 

My thanks go to all of you who read my musings every year and the feedback I receive from you – good or bad – is greatly appreciated.

So lets’ sum up the final thoughts on this year’s tournament. I am delighted to finish with an 80% success rate with 12 out of 15 matches correctly predicted.  That is the same as last year. So at least in one area, your correspondent is consistent. In the points aggregate, the accuracy was also 80% up from 71% last season.

Tournament Assessment

All in all a poor Six Nations. One team were clearly better than all the others and after the thrills of last year’s Judgment Day – to have a dead rubber on the final weekend was a huge disappointment. The standards of entertainment in many of the matches were, simply diabolical and that was also matched by the standard of officiating. We have seen far too much use of the TMO and the performances of even the best referees have been found wanting. Wayne Barnes in particular was abysmal in the Wales v France encounter and even Nigel Owens wasn’t his normal self with a below average display in the France v England finale.

The Six Nations teams have not seemed to learn from the World Cup and one doesn’t see either England or Wales causing Australia or New Zealand too many sleepless nights ahead of their summer tours down under.

Apart from England supporters, one tournament to forget and hope for better things next season.

GYPSYGATE - When is a Racist Taunt not a Racist taunt?

England’s Joe Marler showed his lack of intelligence with the now much repeated "Gypsy Boy" comments being a top hit on YouTube. I am not one for Political correctness but frankly this is so blatant a racist taunt that I am a little stunned that no action has been taken against him. It’s simply not right and I hope World Rugby step in and sanction him.

I have to say I am even more disappointed in the RFU and WRU. These two great originations both dealt with this very poorly. England should have taken their own sanction against Marler and dropped him whilst the WRU were pathetic. Warren Gatland trying to dismiss it as banter and then the WRU showing surprise that no action was taken.

Lets hope we never see and hear of this type of behavior again. Rugby is a gentlemen’s game and so it must remain. Keep racism out of rugby. Period.

Team of The Tournament – ENGLAND

I said a lot last week but it has been a great season for England who let’s not forget have finished second for the past two seasons. A grand slam was taken in style in Paris and coach Eddie Jones has galvanized the squad and given them belief.

Mario Itoje is emerging as a real talent and England had a job to do and executed it very efficiently. Still much room to improve but a very promising start, which bodes well fro the future of the Rose for, coach Eddie Jones.

Congratulations and well done to worthy Grand Slam and Triple Crown winners.

Promotion and Relegation

I have never been a fan of Italy in the Six Nations and their failure to ever finish higher than 5th is a ringing endorsement of their failure to progress. Sure they have had some fantastic players – Trencon, Parisse, Castrogiovaani, Dominquez, the Bergomasco brothers - but overall they haven’t improved and have never consistently found a way to win more than two matches in any tournament et.

Several defeats this year by 40 and 50-point margins can’t help their development and one has to start thinking seriously about the Six Nations bringing in a promotion/relegation playoff against the winners of the European Nations Cup. Georgia have been impressive in World cups and won the European title again with an impressive 38-9 win over Romania in front of 55,00 people in the Dynamo Stadium in Tbilisi.  We have a duty to promote the game and gibing Georgia the opportunity to develop their game – who knows what might happen? Can’t be any worse than Italy although most rugby fans will probably favour Rome as a better place for a weekend visit than Tbilisi.

Fond Farewell and Good Luck!

This Six Nations looks like it could be the last for many fantastic performers whom I doubt we will see in Six Nations 2017.

Gethin Jenkins – I rather prematurely said farewell to him last season but honestly, I can’t see him returning next season. His performances this tournament have not been great and he should announce his retirement from international rugby immediately. Geth, I know its hard son - but enough is enough.

Sergio Parisse – Another player I prematurely said goodbye to last season. 119 caps now and still an outstanding player but with Italy in rebuild, does he really need to put his body through yet more punishment? A fantastic player who has been one of the greatest ever international no.8s.

Martin Castrogiovanni – He has announced his retirement and he will be a huge loss to the Azzurri. Another player on 199 caps who always gave his all for Italy and has been a popular figure both on and off the field.

To all those whom we will never again see grace the Six Nations. Thank you and I wish you all the best for the future.

All Star Team

Finally my all-star line up for the 2015 Six Nations. Some controversial selections but that goes without saying

Full back:

Stuart Hogg – Player of the tournament. Truly outstanding for Scotland with five strong and impressive matches.

Wingers:

Tommy Seymour– some sublime performances from Sanjay. Close against Bowe and Watson

George North – A wonderful six nations for George who has been back to his best and some simply wonderful tries and line breaks. Notable mentions to Anthony Watson and Virimi Vakatawa.


Centres:

Jonathan Joseph – Another strong tournament from Jonathan Joseph who was the surprise package last season and continued with a high standard of flair and talent this tournament.

Jamie Roberts  – Another strong tournament for the ‘Doc’ who impressed in both defence and attack. Narrowly shades Italy’s improving Michele Campagnaro and France’s Gael Fickou.

Half Backs:

Jonny Sexton – No real stand out at Outside half. Sexton wins by being the most consistent. George Ford was misfiring and Dan Biggar wasn’t the force seen at the world cup.

Conor Murray – The best as no other scrum half really challenged him. Wales Gareth Davies was an impressive runner but his slow and erratic passing didn’t help Wales.

Props

Rob Evans – One who came from nowhere? He was very poor in last year’s finale in Rome and didn’t feature in the World Cup but has made the Welsh Loose head spot his own with some strong performances.

WP Nel – Dan Cole had the form but poor discipline and several yellow cards cost him the place. Nel was very impressive in both scrums and loose play.

Hooker:

Guilhem Guirado – narrowly shades it ahead of Dylan Hartley for a second season. The French captain was their best player

Second Row:

George Kruis – goes without saying – a masterly display of aggression and power.

Maro Itoje – What a find, what a talent. Outstanding is all his games for England. A true star in the making!

Back Row:

CJ Stander – The former South African U20 star made the number 6 jersey his own with some solid performances. Very impressive against Wales and some well-taken tries. The Munster man is a real find for Ireland.

Billy Vunipola – Narrowly shades Faletau for the place. His barnstorming runs and gain line success were a critical element in England’s game plan. Impressive in every match.

Chris Robshaw – Two blind sides and one has to doff your cap to Chris Robshaw. He was stripped of the England captaincy and has performed very solidly in all his matches. Never a stand out player but solid and consistent and that what championship teams are built from.

Well that’s all folks. Hopefully I may see you all again for Six Nations 2017! We’ll see!

Six Nations Round 5 – A Dead Rubber

Six Nations Round 5 – A Dead Rubber

Congratulations to England for securing the 2016 Six Nations championship with a clear and deserved win over Wales. That leaves the Round 5 matches as a dead rubber for the first time for many years.  

It was said that when New Zealand learn how to win World Cups again they would be unbeatable for some time. That has been proven with back-to-back World Cups. Could the same be also true for England in the Six Nations? They have the money, more players than anyone, a league competition made up of majority English qualified players and a new coaching team with the vision to develop and grow their game.

After seeing England dominate in this (admittedly) poor Six Nations tournament, one has to believe they can kick on and get even better in future. Not since the 2003 England Grand Slam has an England team looked superior in almost every facet in the Six Nations and this is only the start of Eddie Jones reign in charge. As a Welshman, this prospect of England dominance fills me with dread but I won’t take anything away from England they have been the best team by some margin and deserved and worthy winners.

The great news in Round 4 was that we had three quality matches where Northern hemisphere rugby can finally hold its head up. Your correspondent is sitting with a 75% accuracy record with 9 out of 12 matches predicted correctly. With a final weekend dead rubber in prospect, lets take one last look at the tournament's last fixtures.

WALES v ITALY

Just how bad were Wales in that first half in Twickenham? Nineteen missed tackles by a team which bases its game on strong defence was not exactly encouraging. The Welsh threequarters looked like they had met in the Pub 5 minutes before the match started and too many of their stalwarts had exceptionally poor games. Alun Wyn-Jones had his worst game in a Welsh shirt. Scott Baldwin was simply abysmal at the line out and Lydiard and Warburton largely anonymous. 

Coach Warren Gatland belittled his team in the post match comments and they frankly deserved it. Despite two late tries, Wales were well beaten and if they had won the match it would have been a total travesty.

So where do they go from here? Gatland stuck with the same coaching team after the world cup and that is looking like a huge mistake. A poorly executed game plan with aimless kicking and a poor chase left England with far too much space and too easy an opportunity to attack. 

There is little attacking flair shown by this Welsh team and Gareth Davies was simply awful in passing the ball quickly and Wales were ill-disciplined and gave away far too many easy penalties which gave them a mountain to climb second half.

Warren Gatland has refused to press the panic button and has made just four changes to his starting Xv, three of which are injury related.

Alun Wyn-Jones has a foot injury and will be out for six weeks with a heel injury, winger Alex Cuthbert has a foot injury and Captain Same Warburton has not recovered from the concussion sustained in the battle against England

Rhys Webb returns at scrum half with Gareth Davies taking his place on the bench. Webb made an impressive cameo against England after his lengthy layoff and I am pleased to see him start as his quick passing will give Wales more space and superior game vision will hopefully re-ignite the misfiring Welsh back line.

The most surprising change is the call up of Dragons’ flyer Hallam Amos to right wing just a few weeks after Gatland apparently dismissed his chances as a test winger. Cardiff Blues Tom James was the other candidate in contention and he can feel a little aggrieved not to return to the team after his reasonable outings in the first two matches this tournament.

Luke Charteris replaces Jones and will form a new 2nd Row partnership with Bradley Davies. Justin Tipuric replaces Warburton with Dan Lydiate surprisingly taking over the Captain’s armband.

The choice of Lydiate in particular is an odd one although he does have experience at the Dragons and Lydiate's previous Wales captaincy experience came in a midweek match against Eastern Province Kings on Wales' 2014 South Africa tour. Gatland has now turned to him to re-inspire the wounded Welsh for a game that will secure the Six Nations runners-up spot behind England if Italy are successfully despatched. I would have though Dan Biggar and Jamie Roberts would have been more likely choices.

On the bench, the deserved eight-match ban for Tomas Francis brings up Aaron Jarvis as the replacement tight head prop. Gethin Jenkins returns for injury to replace Paul James and Gloucester’s aggressive Ross Moriarty is brought back for a potential cameo as an impact forward. 

I can’t help but feel Gatland is missing an opportunity here to build for the future. I would have given Gareth Anscombe a start at outside half just to see whether or not he is really capable for stepping up at international level. Starlets uncapped scrum half Aled Davies should have been given bench time and I would have started Moriarty. There is little at stake for Wales other than pride and the chance to assess again some of the squad’s fringe players has been missed imho.

Italy has problems of their own with the news that the very impressive centre Michele Campagnaro out injured.

Exeter's Campagnaro has started all Italy's 2016 Six Nations games and scored two tries on their 2014 visit to Cardiff.
Martin Castrogiovanni will win his 119th cap as one of five changes to the starting Italy XV that will face Wales.

Prop Castrogiovanni returns from a two-week ban for stamping on Scotland's Duncan Taylor and his inclusion will be a huge boost as departing coach Jacques Brunel looks forward to his final game in charge of the Azzurri.

Italy travel to Principality Stadium looking for a first win of the 2016 RBS 6 Nations and in addition to the old warhorse Castrogiovanni, Brunel has made four other alterations.

Fly-half Tommaso Allan will make his first appearance of 2016 for the Azzurri after recovering from a long-term injury while outside centre Andrea Pratichetti replaces the Campagnaro. It is also a completely new pairing in the 2nd row engine room with Zebre duo Quintin Geldenhuys and Valerio Bernabo replacing George Biagi and Marco Fuser.

Italy earlier lost Edoardo Padovani, Lorenzo Cittadini and George Biagi through injuries suffered in defeat by Ireland.

Italy will be playing their final Six Nations game under coach Jacques Brunel, with Harlequins boss and former Ireland full-back Conor O'Shea expected to take over and boy do they need fresh ideas.

Italy were totally outclassed by Ireland and that tight and impressive game against France in Round 1 is now looking like a fluke and a distant memory. Italy has been simply lamentable and renewed calls for promotion and relegation to the Six Nations can’t be far away. 

I expect Wales to want to brush away the memories of the Twickenham debacle and I fear Italy are in for a real hiding. Anything other than a total domination by Wales will be seen in a negative light by the uber-critical Welsh fans. 

Gatland and Shaun Edwards rarely get it wrong two games running so expect lots of champagne rugby and a comfortable Welsh victory.

WALES 42 ITALY 9

IRELAND v SCOTLAND

Ireland were back to some sort of form with an impressive runaway victory over Italy last round. The Irish dominating in all facets of the game and were hugely impressive running in nine tries in their 58-15 victory.

Replacement scrum-half Kieran Marmion came on for his Six Nations debut, while prop Finlay Bealham was introduced for his Irish debut.

His arrival meant that Connacht had five players on the field for the first time in the professional era on a day when Ireland showed what they are capable of, albeit way too late to mount a defence of their Six Nations crown.

Scotland were equally impressive in coming back from conceding an early try against France to also run out impressive winners and it is with some relish that we look forward to this Saturday’s battle at the Aviva Stadium.

Tommy O’Donnell will start for Ireland as Irish coach Joe Schmidt opts to make just one change to the side that beat Italy. Munster flanker O'Donnell missed the World Cup with a dislocated hip, but has battled back to full fitness and form

The Munster flanker comes in for Josh van der Flier with the Leinster man, who made his debut against England at Twickenham, dropping out of the match-day squad, with boss Joe Schmidt obviously mindful of countering Scotland's impressive breakdown work.

Rory Best has won his fitness battle to captain Ireland for the 5pm kick-off. The Ulster hooker has shaken off a calf niggle in time for the final Six Nations battle, with Ireland aiming to salvage a third-place finish from a frustrating, injury-hit campaign.

Simon Zebo again starts at full-back as expected with Rob Kearney again side-lined with hamstring trouble, while Keith Earls will win his 50th cap on the left wing.

Connacht's talented 22-year-old lock Ultan Dillane has another chance to impress off the bench, while fit-again Cian Healy and Eoin Reddan are restored to the replacements after missing last weekend's rout of Italy.

For Scotland, Vern Cotter has made three changes to his Scotland line-up as he looks to sign off the 6 Nations campaign with an unheard of third straight victory.

Duncan Weir replaces Finn Russell at stand-off after his Glasgow team-mate was ruled out with concussion in last weekend's 29-18 win over France.

With Jonny Gray also unavailable after suffering a torn pectoral muscle against Les Bleus, Tim Swinson steps up from the bench to partner Gray's brother Richie in the second row.

Ryan Wilson also returns to the starting line-up in place of Josh Strauss, who drops to the bench despite a decent display against France.

Weir last started for Scotland against South Africa in Newcastle during last year's World Cup; where a scintillating break from his own half led to a Tommy Seymour try.

He will partner captain and scrum-half Greig Laidlaw, who will surpass former prop David Sole's record of 25 outings as Scotland skipper.

The pack is completed by the return of ever-present front-row trio Alasdair Dickinson, Ross Ford and Willem Nel, who start their fifth consecutive match of the championship.

In the backs, centres Alex Dunbar and Duncan Taylor return to midfield while the back-three of Seymour, Tim Visser, and Stuart Hogg return for a third time in a row.
Cotter has made two further changes to the replacements, with Rob Harley coming on to the bench place vacated by the promoted Swinson, while Henry Pyrgos has been named as replacement scrum-half for what could be his first Scotland appearance since his post Rugby World Cup wrist surgery taking over from the unfortunate Sam Hidalgo-Clyne.

The Edinburgh player has tasted just three minutes of action after being on the bench for all four Six Nations matches to date.

Pyrgos inclusion means there are 11 Warriors players in the match-day 23. Peter Horne, who excelled after taking over from Russell just five minutes into last Sunday's Test, has to settle for a place on the bench again

Expect a very tight battle. Scotland will be confident in the scrums and if Ireland don’t get their kicking game right then expect Hogg, Visser and the improving Tommy Seymour to run at them with vigour with frequent gain line breaks. 

Ireland have to be patient and break down the Scots and hope for lots of misdemeanours from the Scottish pack.

This is a very hard game to call and my head says Ireland won’t lose at home; my heart is with Scotland after three good performances.

Ireland just holding on but a tight one

IRELAND 19 SCOTLAND 15

FRANCE v ENGLAND

England go to Paris safe in the knowledge that the silverware is already their property and can now go all out for a Grand Slam. The maturity shown by Eddie Jones team is a far cry from the broken and dispirited team, which was thrashed by Australia in the World cup. Quite honestly, the turnaround of a good team into a great team has been very impressive and a clear endorsement of the new regime and believe coach Eddie Jones has brought to the Rose.

Eddie Jones has made just two changes to his side for Saturday's match against France in Paris.

Mako Vunipola is picked ahead of Joe Marler at loose-head prop while Danny Care replaces Ben Youngs at scrum-half. Marler drops to the bench, as does Youngs and they join Manu Tuilagi, Elliot Daly, Jack Clifford, Joe Launchbury, Kieran Brookes and Luke Cowan-Dickie as replacements.

One can’t help but think that Marler has been dropped after his brain dead outbreak in the last match. The constant focus on his alleged racist remarks has unfairly taken some of the shine of what has been a great 5 weeks for England Rugby.  The “Gypsy Boy” saga isn’t closed and World Rugby has opened up a new inquiry in why the Six Nations committee has taken no action.

I would expect World Rugby to add their own sanction as there is no place for racist taunting in to today’s modern game.

As for France, what can you really say?
Guy Noves has tried to play an expansive attacking game but honestly he doesn’t seem to have the talent in his squad to execute the game plan. 

In Edinburgh, France had the perfect start with an early try and yet they never moved on from it and never dominated the Scottish side. 
After falling behind, there was a return to the dark days with the usual French trait of heads going down and a rising error count. Giant replacement prop Uini Atonio caused Wales some scary moments when he was introduced but was completed out-scrummaged by Scotland.

Any team with talent like Fickou and Fofana should be feared but France are really not firing and it is very difficult to see them causing England any real problems.

Les Bleus coach Guy Noves has responded to last weekend's defeat to Scotland at Murrayfield by drafting Loann Goujon and Bernard Le Roux into the back row.

Damien Chouly switches to blindside flanker to make room for Bordeaux-Begles number eight Goujon to win his 10th cap.

Gone from the 29-18 defeat in Edinburgh are flankers Yacouba Camara and Wenceslas Lauret, but the rest of the side is unchanged as France seek to bounce back from successive RBS 6 Nations defeats to Scotland and Wales.

The other changes come on the bench as prop Xavier Chiocci is recalled following injury to Vincent Pelo while lock Paul Jedrasiak returns as a replacement.

The backline remains unchanged however - Maxime Machenaud and Francois Trinh-Duc are retained at half back.

France have a dangerous back line and have the talent to cause anyone problems. Do they believe they can really win? 

England have a dreadful record of blowing Grand Slams in the final match but is hard to see this side folding and yielding to France despite England’s uninspiring away record in Paris.

I actually think this game will either be close and tight or England will run away with it. The latter looks like the most likely scenario, but France always have at least one good game in them in every championship and they could still cause what would be a massive upset given their lack of form and confidence shown this season.

England win by a cantor.

FRANCE 11 ENGLAND 29

Six Nations Round 4 – No bright shoots…

Six Nations Round 4 – No bright shoots…

Round 3 followed rounds 1 &2 with more tediously dull, uninspiring rugby. We have now had 720 minutes of the 2016 RBS Six Nations and barely 36 minutes or 5% has been worth watching. Worse still for a Welshman, the most watchable and exciting rugby has been played by England!

Round 3 really showed no improvement on the previous matches. Wales Friday night game against France was so tedious at times that you could have bottled it and sold it as an insomnia medicine. TV pundit Jonathan Davies was moved to comment that there was nothing for the studio to discuss at half time.

We have to face facts and the Northern Hemisphere teams are stuck in the dark ages. The tournaments the teams play in are no help to them stepping up to the international stage. In France, the Top 14 has world-class talent in it but little of it is French. The Top 14 recipe is based on grinding forward play and defence with the last 15 minutes of games being when teams attack such is the lack of focus on fitness.

The Guinness Pro 12 is lamentable. Poor refereeing really damages the tournament and most teams show little strength in depth. It means that Celtic country players have a huge step up when they pull on the international jersey.

The Aviva Premiership is probably the best competition but the focus on relegation means that teams take few risks and too many journeymen reside in its constituent clubs reducing the game time for younger emerging talent. The risks of failure are high.

After all this doom and gloom – lets hope for some bright shoots of recovery in Round 4. This weekend’s match previews:

IRELAND v ITALY

Joe Schmidt’s team are still looking for their first victory of the competition and it should come this Saturday in Dublin’s Aviva Stadium when they face winless Italy.

Ireland came to Twickenham with little optimism of victory but the injury ravaged side put up a solid performance before being outplayed by England with defensive patterns falling away in the second half.  Ireland were outmuscled by the England pack and lacked penetration in attack despite playing twice against an ill-disciplined England side who gave up two yellow cards at crucial moments.

Rory Best was highly erratic with his line out throwing and that didn’t help the Irish retain enough quality ball to cause England any real headaches.

Joe Schmidt makes just two changes for the visiting Italian side. Ulster’s Jarrod Payne returns to the starting XV and renews his centre partnership with Robbie Henshaw.

There had been calls in the Irish press this week for Joe Schmidt to name Payne at fullback, but he gets the final nod at centre and replaces Stuart McCloskey, who drops out of the match day squad. McCloiskey had a curate’s egg of a game against England  - good in parts - but he didn’t really do enough to displace Payne and the Irish threequarter line has a better balance with the experienced and battle hardened Payne returning.

Simon Zebo comes in for Rob Kearney at fullback after Kearney failed to recover from a hamstring injury, but otherwise the starting XV is unchanged from the team that lost to England at Twickenham.

Andrew Trimble and Keith Earls start on the wings, while Conor Murray and Jonathan Sexton are back again as the old firm at half-back.

Schmidt has opted for a front row of Jack McGrath, Captain Rory Best, and Mike Ross.  Devin Toner and Donnacha Ryan remain in the second row, despite Ultane Dillane's impressive cameo against England, with CJ Stander, Josh van der Flier and Jamie Heaslip in the back row.

Cian Healy has been ruled out of the match with a mild hamstring strain. Connacht prop Finlay Bealham will take the Leinster man's place on the bench and will make his Test debut if called upon. Healy missed the opening games against Wales and France after undergoing knee surgery and came on as a replacement for the final 20 minutes of the defeat to England. 

Australian-born Bealham has played four times for Ireland U20s and twice for the Emerging Ireland side.

Italy were out played and out thought by a resurgent Scotland in Rome but Exeter Chiefs combative centre Michele Campagnaro who has been one of their stand out players.

Italian Coach Jacques Brunel continues to put his faith in youth and has determined that Rookie fly half Edoardo Padovani has earned the right to leapfrog Kelly Haimona and lead Italy's backline against Ireland on Saturday.

Padovani will make his full Test debut in Dublin edging out the ponderous New Zealand-born Haimona, a player Italy have invested much time and effort in assimilating into their ranks with it must be said limited results.

Haimona slotted in for Italy's 36-20 defeat to Scotland in the third round, with promising youngster Carlo Canna having been ruled out through a muscle problem. Canna has remained sidelined for the Ireland clash, leaving Brunel to shuffle his resources and hand Padovani the chance to impress.

Scrum-half Edoardo Gori has been ruled out of the rest of the tournament with a rib cartilage problem, leaving Guglielmo Palazzani to step into the breach.

Zebre duo Padovani and Palazzani will form an inexperienced Test half-back combination at the Aviva Stadium, boasting just 20 caps between them, but Brunel is banking on the pair capitalising on their club partnership.

The evergreen Italian Captain Sergio Parisse will equal Martin Castrogiovanni's record of 118 Italy caps on Saturday, with the Azzurri still yet to taste victory in this year's Six Nations. Leicester Tigers hooker Leonardo Ghiraldini will miss the rest of the tournament with a right shoulder injury, with Treviso's Davide Giazzon stepping up to start in the front row.

Fit-again lock Quintin Geldenhuys takes a seat on the bench, with George Biagi impressing against France and England and deserves to start in the second row.

This is a must win game for an Ireland team in transition and despite a good opening match against France, Italy have been disappointing and I can’t see their fortunes truing around here. Ireland comfortable winners.

IRELAND 23 ITALY 9

ENGLAND v WALES

The tournament decider as predicted by your correspondent in the opening preview before Round 1.  The two best teams in the competition will meet at 4pm on Saturday with the winner odds on to win the 2016 title. With just two fixtures left, England lead the Six Nations with six points, having won all three of their matches so far, but Wales are a point behind in second.

England will be desperate to erase the memories of that dreadful defeat to Wales in the World Cup and will come confident into this match on the back of some solid displays and remaining undefeated.

The Welsh public were not impressed with the dreary performance against France and the Welsh management have been defending their record and pointing out that this was their fifth consecutive win over France.  Wales made hard work of the win but the final score line flattered France and Wales never looked in any trouble in putting Les Bleus to the sword in Cardiff.

Coach Warren Gatland has kept faith with an unchanged starting line up that accounted for France 11 days ago, although there are three changes on the bench. Scrum-half Rhys Webb, who was called into Wales' Six Nations squad on Monday following a six-month injury absence from Test rugby, is among the replacements, along with fit-again lock Luke Charteris and prop Paul James.

Ospreys loose head James takes over from 122 times-capped Gethin Jenkins, who is continuing his recovery from a calf muscle injury.

Charteris missed the France game due to a knee injury and was replaced by Wasps forward Bradley Davies, who continues in the second row alongside Alun-Wyn Jones. Cardiff Blues scrum-half Lloyd Williams drops out of the match day 23, together with Jenkins and Scarlets lock Jake Ball who suffered a knee injury in the Scarlets 24-15 win over Treviso in the Pro 12.

Rhys Webb, meanwhile, has not played for Wales since their final World Cup warm-up fixture against Italy last September. The 27-year-old scrum half suffered a serious foot injury during that match and was ruled out of World Cup contention. He returned to action last month, and is recalled to the squad after he has made three comeback appearances in Ospreys colours.

Eddie Jones names an unchanged XV for the visit of the Men of Harlech.  The combative Manu Tuilagi will be on the bench as one of four changes to the replacements.  The Leicester centre, has not played for England since June 2014 because of a groin injury and disciplinary issues.

Prop Kieran Brookes is also selected among the replacements with England's two other changes to the match-day 23 that beat Ireland 21-10 at the end of last month seeing Exeter hooker Luke Cowan-Dickie come in for Saracens forward Jamie George and the fit-again Joe Launchbury replace Courtney Lawes.

George will miss the rest of the Six Nations after rupturing a tendon in his biceps while training on Tuesday,

England have won their last two Six Nations encounters against Wales and let's not forget they could easily have won or drawn held that World Cup group match as they led by 10 points with half an hour to play.

While the XV Jones has picked may appear unremarkable - it is unchanged from the side that beat Ireland - there are only eight survivors from that fateful Saturday evening last September. Jones is definitely starting to make his mark on an England team, which has provided the few moments of brightness and attacking rugby in their uneventful Six Nations.

Do not expect any changes in Wales approach to the game against England they will continue with their focus on defence and expect a lot of direct running from Wales especially in the Ford/Farrell channel.

Upfront, Rob Evans and Samson Lee will have a solid battle against Marler and Cole and Scott Baldwin, who has the best lineout accuracy of any hooker in the competition so far will be wanting to ensure Wales retain possession.

There have been acquisitions about illegal scrimmaging from both sets of coaches this week, which have been frankly unnecessary, and this will be a key area for referee Craig Joubert to watch and police carefully during the whole 80 minutes.

I am a little surprised to see Bradley Davies retain his place in the 2nd Row but he played well against France and playing at Wasps, he will know the English players well and his fiery temperament and aggressive ball carrying give Wales some firepower with Charteris offering a different dimension off the bench.

The real battle will be in the back rows. England has played without a recognized open side for their matches so far and that could give Wales captain Sam Warburton some opportunities to upset the breakdowns. England and Wales both have outstanding No.8 forwards with cousins Billy Vunapola and Tualupe Falatau both having great tournament. It will be a real battle royal.

But who comes out on top in the battle of the two number eights will be dictated by which of them gets the most secure platform from their team-mates.

At the moment Wales' Faletau is the in my opinion the best number eight in world. He's a total all-round player, as shown by his incredible defensive tats in this Six Nations racking up 51 bone crunching tackles – a competition all time high total.

Billy Vunipola is a different sort of player, a big ball carrier who causes huge problems for defences - he gives England multiple attacking options from the gain line and gets them on the front foot. Vunipola is much more eye-catching, but while he is the best number eight carrying in midfield, Faletau is the best number eight overall - he has a wider skillset. Faletau is much more athletic and uses his feet to evade defenders, whereas Vunipola will draw on his power and weight to help him dominate the contact.

The key difference continues in how they play the game.

If Wales can stop Vunipola they will believe they go a long way to stopping England.  Blind-side flanker Dan Lydiate is likely to be given the responsibility. It is a decent-enough theory, but Lydiate will have to tidy up his tackling technique after being heavily penalised in his past two matches for failing to wrap his arms with his distinctive trademark chop tackle technique.

England has arguably the slightly stronger bench and Tuilagi could be a decisive factor as defenses tire in the latter 20 minutes or so of the match. He can run home any England advantage or create the chance that decides a tight game.

At scrum half, England must have been tempted to start Danny Care and Wales have the brute strength in their backs while England have more flair and flexibility with Jonathan Joseph and Anthony Watson.

This is a really hard game to call. This Welsh team looks stronger than the team which won on that evening in September but England are the form team and Eddie Jones will have them prepared well.  This fixture is a graveyard for your correspondent to call and my record of picking winners here isn’t the best of my predictive analytics. Much as I hate to call it, England to win at home in a narrow and tight game.

ENGLAND 17 WALES 13

SCOTLAND v FRANCE

What a difference a win makes! Scotland looked calm and secure in their win in Rome and never looked under any real pressure. Stuart Hogg was the clear man of the match and Scottish tails are up as they welcome Guy Noves rebuilt French team to Murrayfield.

Vern Cotter's men, who entered the Championship full of confidence after a narrow World Cup quarter-final loss to Australia in 2015, ended an nine match RBS 6 Nations losing sequence against Italy last time out, earning a precious win in Rome against the Azzurri.

Cotter makes two changes to the team, which defeated Italy.  Glasgow Warriors No. 8 Josh Strauss and centre Alex Dunbar have been drafted into their side to face France in Sunday's Six Nations match.

Strauss takes over from club-mate Ryan Wilson, who was a late replacement for David Denton in the 36-20 win over Italy. Wilson drops to the bench, with Denton out of the match-day 23.

South Africa-born Strauss, will start only his third Test for Scotland, and his first in the Six Nations, after becoming eligible just before last autumn's World Cup. He was drafted onto the bench in Rome after Wilson's promotion to the starting line-up and impressed in a late 12-minute cameo, having played 75 minutes for Glasgow two days earlier.

The other change sees Dunbar take over from fellow Warrior Mark Bennett, who is dropped, with Duncan Taylor moving from inside to outside centre. This is a significant change. Dunbar won the last of his 14 caps against Italy in last year's Six Nations before rupturing his knee ligaments in training. He missed the World Cup and two further injury setbacks recently delayed his return to Test duty until he was recalled to the squad this week.

Duncan Taylor's strong showings since coming into the side against Wales mean Mark Bennett - who was sent back to play for Glasgow last week end- is the one to miss out.

Scotland are aiming for a first home Six Nations victory for three years, a run stretching back seven matches since a 12-8 victory over Ireland in February 2013. They are also targeting a first win over France in a decade, their last victory a 20-16 victory at Murrayfield in 2006.

France looked very limited with little threat in the first half in Cardiff but their clever use of the bench and their enormous forward replacements can cause anyone problems.

Guy Noves makes six changes to the team that lost in Cardiff.  François Trinh-Duc will make his first Six Nations start since 2013 after being named at fly half. 

The Montpellier No.10 comes in for Jules Plisson, who drops to the bench.

Elsewhere in the backline a fit-again Wesley Fofana is named on the wing in place of Djibril Camara, while Scott Spedding gets the nod at fullback as Maxime Médard drops to the bench.

The final change in the threequarters sees the dangerous  Gaël Fickou back in the starting lineup alongside Maxime Mermoz, with Jonathan Danty left out after starting the first three games of the Championship.

In the pack Yoann Maestri is restored to the starting lineup after coming off the bench in Cardiff, while Yacouba Camara replaces the injured Antoine Burban.

On the bench there is just one new face, Sébastien Vahaamahina set for his first appearance in this year's Championship.

Scotland has an awful record against France and hasn’t won over Les Bleus since 2006 – a 10-year win drought. I think Scotland will start confident and it will depend what France team turns up in the first half. The French forward bench is formidable and if they get a half time lead over Scotland they could simply bulldozer them in the second half.

The half back combination of Machenaud and Trinh-Duc is exciting and with Fichou coming in at aggressive angles, this could open up the game and France could cut loose.

France are a team in transition and this games looks to be an exciting prospect with both team looking to layer down a marker ands show their respective coaches that they are building in the right direction for they future.

I don’t see a fairytale ending and France will win but only just…

SCOTLAND 17 FRANCE 21