Final Thoughts - Six Nations 2017

Final Thoughts - Six Nations 2017

One of the most competitive Six Nations Tournaments of recent years ended with England again winning the championship but being denied a back to back Grand Slam by an inspired Irish performance at the Aviva Stadium in Dublin. England missed the opportunity to become legends and break the All Blacks consecutive win record and whilst England fans will be no doubt disappointed in the final outcome, Coach Eddie Jones is focused on the bigger prize of 2019 World Cup and will be pleased his team have continued to blood new players and maintain their status as the Northern Hemisphere’s leading rugby nation.

The tournament raised a number of questions on sportsmanship which we will go into later in this analysis. Both Italy and France danced on the edges of laws of the game versus sportsmanship. We also have the question of 2017 British & Irish Lions selections for the tough trip to New Zealand. Your correspondent will give you his own views on players likely to start as a test line up together with those players who won’t make the trip.

One of the main things shown is this year’s competition is just how difficult it is to win away. Other than in Rome, only one other away win was achieved – England in Cardiff. That shows just how difficult it is to win a Grand Slam these days and I don’t see that changing in the coming seasons.

Rugby Raconteur finished with 11 correct predictions out of 15 – a better than average accuracy rate of 73%. Let's look back some of the highlights of the competition and some final thoughts and considerations as we await the British Lions this summer.

A Bridge too far in Dublin!

England deservedly won the championship again by winning their home matches and stealing that solitary win away in Cardiff. Other than against Scotland – whom they ruthlessly demolished; England never really fired on all cylinders this season. Why is that? Well we can all have our opinions but for me it was the lack of a credible back row – an area where England traditionally are so strong.

Nathan Hughes never showed any real dominance at No.8 and the recall of Billy Vunipola looked premature as he lacked crucial match fitness. Maro Itoje is not a flanker and neither is Courtney Lawes. None of Jack Clifford, James Haskell, or Tom Wood really put their hands up and it was noticeable that England struggled when up against teams with strong back rows – France, Wales, and latterly Ireland. The missing Chris Robshaw was a big loss for England and to win the World Cup – they badly need to find back row depth.

In Dublin, Ireland never let England settle and there were also worries about England’s front row too. Joe Marler struggled against France and never dominated any prop. How long Eddie Jones can persist with Dylan Hartley is another open question in the face of consistently strong performances from Jamie George. Dan Cole must also be looking over his shoulder as Kyle Sinckler looks to be also growing stronger game by game.

Other than that, England were the best team and deserved champions. For the other nations, just beating England really doesn't make a season and the lack of consistency shown by Wales (worst offender) but also Ireland and Scotland is why those nations will not win the next world cup.  Until all three of those nations build strong squads beyond a starting XV, they will never rise to the top of the game. England look the Northern Hemisphere’s only chance of World Cup glory in Japan.

Coach of the Tournament:

Take a bow Vern Cotter.  Scotland for me absolutely rose to the occasion and the SRU must be concerned as to whether or not they have made the right decision in not renewing Cotter’s contract. Gregor Townsend is a fine coach in his own right, but for me Cotter has shown to be a level above and his selections and squad development with a limited talent pool are to be applauded.

For the record, his 19 wins out of 36 matches as Scotland coach – a 52.8% success rate is far higher than his predecessors.  Only Ian McGeechan who was coach from 1988-93 has a better record for Scotland and not by much! His record 19 wins from 33 matches – 58% success is marginally better than Cotter’s but that was from a period before professionalism. Cotter has been a great servant for Scottish rugby and Rugby Raconteur was proven wrong twice this season by under-estimating the standard and passion of the Scottish team. I wish him well as he takes on his new role at Montpellier and he must return to international coaching again in Future. Good luck and thank you!

Spoiling Tactics and “HIAgate”!

Italy have struggled in this tournament and against England they adopted the tactics of non-contesting rucks and whilst effective, it killed the match as a competitive game and for the neutral spectator coming for the first time to our great game – it made Rugby look confusing and boring to watch.

I commented this season on my disappointment of Eddie Jones’ reaction but as a good friend pointed out - take a bow rugby journo Rich Freeman (follow him on #rugbyjapan on twitter) for stating that it was more down to him being outthought than anything else. It did raise the question of sportsmanship and that was followed by the absolute chaos in Paris for the final match between France and Wales.

Wayne Barnes is a great referee but for me he lost the plot. A second half which lasted just under 60 minutes on the pitch and over 75 minutes elapsed is frankly not what anyone wants to see.  Wales coach Robert Howley was absolutely furious with the potential gamesmanship from France which I have christened “HIAgate”. Prop Uini Atonio had what looked like a back/groin injury and the doctor claiming he needed a Head Injury Assessment is, for me at least; a gross violation of “trust”. Barnes put himself in an impossible position and the replacement of the prop had a massive impact on the outcome. Atonio walked straight down the tunnel on his own clutching his groin. I have seen players suffering with concussion on the pitch and Atonio clearly did not have a head injury.

Let’s be clear – no complaints about France winning. They deserved it. Two tries to none and total dominance in the set piece. Well done to the team on the field. BUT and it's a big but, this is no different to "Bloodgate" at Harlequins a few years back. The French officials played the rules and if there is any justice – officials must be sanctioned and banned as that was blatant cheating. I don't expect any action will be taken as rugby had a huge fall out from “Bloodgate” and I will be shocked if the Six Nations Committee or World Rugby do nothing more than just sweep it under the carpet.

Promotion and Relegation?

I have never been a fan of Italy in the Six Nations, and this year’s performance by the Azzurri was probably almost as bad as it gets. Five defeats and a negative 145 points difference don’t lie and Italy were hopelessly outclassed in every match. Italy have competed in 18 Six Nations tournaments. During that period, they have won only 12 matches out of 85 – a 14% success rate and only once outside Rome. They have a negative 1,553 points difference and have finished bottom of the table on 12 occasions. This season’s points difference is the worst ever performance by an Italian team and the time has come for the Six Nations to look at a promotion and relegation play off between the bottom side and the winners of the second-tier European Championship.

Georgia are already ranked above Italy in the World rankings and their progress towards the Six Nations looks unstoppable. World Rugby has to promote and encourage new teams as well as raise standards and the time is right now for Italy’s place to be seriously questioned. A play off between the European Champions and Six Nations Wooden Spoon team has to come in and soon.

British & Irish Lions Test XV, Captain, & Squad

So, after the Six Nations, all attention will now turn to April 19 and Warren Gatland’s squad announcement. Let me start my Lions assessment with eight players from the four home nations who I don’t think will make the trip. Some big names here but this is how I see it:

Summer on the Beach:

England: Mike Brown & Dylan Hartley. Gatland will take 3, maybe 4 full backs. Mike Brown didn’t make the last tour and I don’t see him making this one either. Hogg, Halfpenny, and Payne are all better choices in my book and with wingers like Simon Zebo and Liam Williams also able to cover the Full Back slot – I really don’t see Brown on the plane.

As for Hartley, he isn’t good enough. PERIOD. Volatile, weak in the scrum, prone to lose line outs and not better than Owens, Best, George or Ford.

Wales: Jonathan Davies & Dan Biggar. Jonathan Davies was the controversial selection in keeping Brian O’Driscoll out of the last Lions test. Passing has never been his strength – a real weakness for a 13, and he also lacks the pace to cause real problems. With a plethora of strong centres to choose – he won’t make the cut ahead of Joseph, Huw Jones, Ringrose, Henshaw, Farrell, T’eo.

Dan Biggar had a poor tournament and like the last tour to Australis, he won’t make this one either. Sexton, Ford, Russell, with Farrell as cover mean no place for the Welsh No. 10.

Scotland – Greig Laidlaw & John Barclay. Laidlaw offers kicking options but with Webb, Murray, Youngs and Care ahead of him – he will be spending his summer in the Highlands.

John Barclay has been great for Scotland but again – back row strength and Gatland’s desire to pick ball carriers and big defenders mean he won’t get the call. A pity.

Ireland – Jamie Heaslip & Rob Kearney. Heaslip has been a shadow of his former self and could be a surprise omission. Kearney has lacked pace and is another who is well down the pecking order. With Jerrod Payne back – I think Kearney won’t make it

Lions Captain:

Its traditional that the team which wins the Six Nations usually provides the Lions captain. With Hartley, uncertain to make the trip – that makes things problematic. My choice for Lions captain is a man who has never captained his country but has shown great form and has captaincy experience from his club side. 

Take a bow – Joe Launchbury! 

There are other candidates but Alun Wyn Jones hasn’t really impressed with his leadership and is a big question mark to even make the trip given his shoulder injury on Saturday. Warburton looks far better with the captaincy off his shoulders – rather like Chris Robshaw has done for England – so I wouldn’t go for either of them. To win in New Zealand is going to be down to forward power and big Joe is my surprise selection for Captain.

Test XV:

Here it is. I have picked my side based on current Six Nations form:

15 – Stuart Hogg (Scotland) – 2016 Man of the Tournament and a shoe in. See’s off the challenge from Halfpenny and Payne who will also make the 47-man squad

14 - George North (Wales) – Poor against Scotland but strong in all other matches. Definite starter.

13 – Jonathan Joseph (England) – Devastating runner and intelligent with it. Outstanding against Scotland. Under pressure from Irish Centres and Huw Jones but will get the start.

12 – Owen Farrell (England) – gives great second receiver options and will be first choice kicker. Great leadership shown for England and he has matured enormously over the past two seasons.

11 – Elliot Daly (England) - under pressure from Anthony Watson and Jack Nowell – his flexibility and kicking game give him the nod

10 – Jonny Sexton (Ireland) - the best talent at 10. Needs to stay fit but world class vision and organisation skills

9 – Rhys Webb (Wales) – An outstanding Six Nations gives Webb the nod over Murray. Both England scrum halves – Youngs and Care also making the squad.

1 – Jack McGrath (Ireland) – Controversial but for me just edges out Joe Marler. Mako Vunipola, and Gordon Reid, are the other understudies. No Welsh props on the tour.

2 – Ken Owens (Wales) – Another player with a fabulous Six Nations. Rory Best, and Jamie George making up the rest.

3- Tadhg Furlong (Ireland) – A real talent and narrowly edges out Kyle Sinckler for me. Dan Cole, and (if fit) WP Nel the others.

4 – Joe Launchbury (England) – A great tournament and Captain.

5 – Maro Itoje (England) – I don’t think Alun Wyn Jones will make the trip with injury. Itoje is next in line

6 – CJ Stander (Ireland) - the Lions will need leaders on the field. Best ball carrier in home nations.

7 – Sam Warburton (Wales)  - A fantastic tournament and will be the first name on the team sheet. Peter O’Mahony, Justin Tipuric, Hamish Watson, and Chris Robshaw making the squad.

8 – Billy Vunipola (England) – Needs match fitness but plenty of time. Hamish Watson, Taulupe Falatau, will be pushing him

Squad: - these 15 plus:
13 Backs – Halfpenny, Williams (both Wales), Seymour, Jones, (all Scotland), Watson, Ford, T’eo, Youngs, Care (all England), Payne, Ringrose, Henshaw, Murray (all Ireland),

19 Forwards - Reid, Nel, Watson, Richie Gray (all Scotland), Marler, Cole, Sinckler, M.Vunipola, George, Kruis, Lawes, Robshaw, (England), Falatau, Tipuric, Jones (Wales), O’Mahony, Henderson, O’Brien, Best (Ireland),

19 English
12 Irish

9 Welsh
7 Scots

Rugby Raconteur will be back for Lions tour...See you soon!

Six Nations Week 5 – Back to Back Grand Slam?

Six Nations Week 5 – Back to Back Grand Slam?

As we enter the final round of the 2017 Six Nations, England have deservedly been crowned again as Champions. The question is can they do a rare thing and achieve back to back Grand Slams?  A victory in Dublin would also see England set a tier-one record of 19 consecutive wins and Jones believes the pressure on the weekend's performance is ideal preparation for the 2019 global tournament in Japan. If they do win, they will have to do it the hard way facing a wounded Ireland side on the day after the St. Paddy’s day celebrations.

No team has won back-to-back Grand Slams in the Six Nations Era. In the old Five Nations, it was a feat achieved by England teams a record three times before in 1913 & 1914; 1923 & 1924; 1991 & 1992. Wales have achieved it once in 1908 & 1909 and France were the most recent achievers in 1997 & repeated in 1998 when they put fifty-one points on the board in their away games against Scotland (51-16 at Murrayfield) and Wales (51-0 at Wembley).

England finally came to life at home in the Calcutta Cup absolutely smashing the hopes of John Barclay’s Scottish heroes and once again sent them homewards to think again.  England were awesome. Their forward power and creative back play totally unsettled Scotland and with 20 minutes to go – you feared a cricket score. After disappointing displays in their earlier matches, you always knew that England would eventually get it right and someone was going to get a stuffing. Unfortunately injury hit Scotland were the victims put to the sword and all hail to Eddie Jones and his excellent side – deserved champions.

One of the clearest indicators in this year’s championship is just how difficult it is to win away. Outside of Rome’s Stadio Olympico, there has been only one other away win this tournament – England’s stolen victory in Cardiff – and the home team factor will no doubt also come into to play in this weekend’s fixtures.

There are three final tasty challenges – Wales travel to take on France in Paris; England and Ireland in Dublin, whilst with a Scottish injury list growing, Conor O’Shea might just feel his Italian side can get something away at Murrayfield. It’s been a good competition and some unexpected results mean your correspondent is facing a less than stellar 75% success rate with 9 out of 12 results predicted correct. My final chance to get that up to its normal standards will require 3 correct predictions for this weekend. Let’s assess the runners and riders for the final round:

SCOTLAND v ITALY

First up is the lunchtime fixture at Murrayfield where Italy travel to take on Scotland with an early 12:30 kick off.

Vern Cotter will want to bow out on a high after the sobering defeat again at Twickenham. He will be very concerned about making sure his injury ravaged squad can finish on a high and a possible 3rd in the final championship table. Scotland’s capitulation at Twickenham was not helped by the mounting injury toll during the match. They ended up with a scrum-half on the wing and, despite two tries from Huw Jones, looked utterly deflated. Vern Cotter, their coach, compared the experience to the day his Clermont Auvergne side lost 46-6 to Saracens on the same ground but there is also increasing evidence to suggest the Six Nations is becoming ever harder work for away teams.

Fraser Brown's rush of blood to the head against England has cost the Scotland hooker his starting slot against Italy on Saturday. Cotter has clearly lost patience with the Hooker who added to his stress level this week with his citing for the tip tackle on Elliot Daly. Brown was spared further punishment on Tuesday when an independent disciplinary panel ruled his challenge did not merit a red card.
Head coach Vern Cotter - who is taking charge of the Dark Blues for the final time - has recalled Edinburgh hooker Ross Ford to start against the Azzurri at Murrayfield.  Ford will make his first start of the championship and his 107th international cap. The Edinburgh forward will need just two more caps after this weekend to equal Chris Paterson's Test record for a Scottish player.

Ford's inclusion is the only change to the starting XV ripped apart by the English last weekend as they went on to claim a record-equalling 61-21 triumph. Although their title hopes were snuffed out by that humiliating defeat, Scotland can still finish as runners up for the first time since the tournament was expanded to six teams in 2000.

Cotter will be relieved to see the likes of Stuart Hogg, Tommy Seymour and Ryan Wilson declare themselves fit after suffering head knocks last weekend. Finn Russell, Huw Jones and Richie Gray have also shaken off knocks to take on the struggling Italians, who have lost all four of their games to date.

The only other change to the match-day squad sees Gloucester centre Matt Scott return to the bench to replace Mark Bennett, who lasted just two minutes as a first-half replacement against England before suffering leg and arm injuries. John Barclay will once again wear the Captain’s arm band as the Scarlets flanker wins his 60th international cap.

For Italy, there were encouraging individual performances in the defeat to France and the Azzurri will take heart from their forward play in the loose as hard scrummaging France made mincemeat of the Italy pack in the set pieces. A decent performance is probably the best they can hope for as with Georgia again looking certain to win European Rugby’s tier two competition – Coach Conor O’Shea will be looking over his shoulder as the calls for promotion and relegation grow ever louder. I watched highlights of Georgia demolishing a Russia side in front of 55,000 in Tbilisi. They looked powerful with a loud and passionate home support. I can’t say any of the home nations would relish a trip there in a Six Nations competition so I think they will all be looking for O’Shea’s team to at least make a good stand and push Scotland close.

O’Shea has made four changes to his starting XV for Saturday's final Six Nations fixture against Scotland at Murrayfield. Italy were 22-19 winners on their last visit at Murrayfield on final day of the 2015 Six Nations but have lost all 11 championship games since then.

Scottish-born lock George Biagi, who has had game time as a replacement off the bench in the defeats by Ireland, England and France, has been selected in the second row in place of club team-mate Andries van Schalkwyk.

Tommaso Benvenuti replaces the injured Michele Campagnaro at outside centre and will once again team up with the versatile Luke McLean. Campagnaro is a big loss given he has looked the only penetrating runner in a shabby looking Italian threequarter line which lacks oomph and power.

Zebre's Maxime Mbanda is also recalled in the starting pack, in place of Glasgow flanker Simone Favaro, while Ornel Gega takes over from Leonardo Ghiraldini at hooker after recovering from a neck problem. Ghiraldini drops to the bench.

Carlo Canna and Eduorado Gori continue at half backs and the Azzurri will be looking for a more solid scrum against the Scottish front row which held its own against both Wales and England.

In what looks like an increasingly desperate attempt to gain something from an awful campaign, O’Shea opts for a six-two split of forwards to backs on his bench as Italy look to end their Six Nations campaign in a positive manner. Flanker Federico Ruzza will be hoping for a first senior cap from the bench. On the bench, in addition to Ruzza, Francesco Minto returns as part of a 6-2 split, while scrum-half Marcello Violi will look to make his first appearance of the Championship.

Scotland have shown strong form at home but their lengthy injury list may cause a few problems. Italy, by contrast, have looked stronger away from home – so it is an intriguing mix. Italy didn’t look comfortable at all in the set pieces against France and they must do better against Scotland. The change at hooker, whilst less experienced, should favour them as the Albanian-born Treviso hooker Gega is a strong scrummager and better in the loose.

The packs look pretty even so the game will be won in the backs. Finn Russell is a real Jekyll and Hyde performer – great at times and awful at others. His display against England was the latter and he certainly didn’t help his side stabilise with erratic kicking and passing. This lack of vision as a playmaker does sometimes let him down in co-ordinating attacks.

In the centres, Huw Jones is another player who wouldn’t have been on many lips as pa potential British Lion at the start of the tournament but he has run strongly and scored two excellent tries against England. Given reasonable possession, Scotland have a clear edge in the threequarters and should have enough quality to dominate the Azzurri.

Scotland win to push hard for 2nd in the table and their best Six Nations performance for many years.

Scotland 23 Italy 16

FRANCE v WALES

There are times when I wonder why I write this Blog. After slating Rob Howley and his selection for the match against Ireland, Wales went on to do their best performance for 12 months with a fantastic defensive display against Ireland.  The great Welsh prop Graham Price has harshly christened Wales as the New France due to the lack of consistency in Welsh performances over the past year.

It’s certainly been clear that we are not sure which Wales will turn up. The Welsh performances this season against Australia, Japan, Italy and Scotland have been absolutely dire whilst the games against South Africa, England and Ireland show a very different team.

And it’s not just the overall team – individuals have also been very inconsistent. George North was just awful against Scotland but was sublime against Ireland with strong running and two crucial tries. For me, the one area that decided the result as much as any, was the line breaks. The number of breaks each team had was pretty similar but it was Wales’ ability to convert those line breaks into points that told in the end.

Take that try George North got in the first half: to make that line break and score the try in the same phase was no accident. So much had to fall into place, and it did. On Friday night Ireland made plenty of line breaks but Wales’ scramble defence and Ireland’s inability to make them pay, in contrast to what Wales could do at the other end; was ultimately the difference between the two teams.

Several Welsh players had very strong games against Ireland with Rhys Webb, Sam Warburton, Justin Tipuric, and Ken Owens – all putting themselves into the reckoning for Lions places whilst Leigh Halfpenny and Dan Biggar certainly have some work to do with poor games and big inconsistencies. Halfpenny was awful under the high ball and really needs to be either dropped or moved to the wing. Biggar too again looks unlikely to make the plane with the Lions after another poor game with both boot and passing.

Given Wales strong showing against the men in green, it isn’t surprising that once again Wales will field an unchanged team for their RBS 6 Nations finale in Paris.

Interim head coach Rob Howley has predictably retained the same match day squad which means Ross Moriarty deservedly retains the No.8 Jersey and Jake Ball at No. 4 and that Bath forwards Luke Charteris and Taulupe Faletau remain among the replacements as Wales target a sixth successive victory over Les Bleus, while hooker Ken Owens will win his 50th cap.  Owens has been one of the form players of the championship and has put himself in the pole position to gain the British Lions No.2 jersey with strong showings in every match. He reaches his half-century, and will lead Wales out at the Stadt de France having made his debut back in 2011 at the Rugby World Cup.

If Wales win - and England beat Ireland in Dublin on Saturday; - then Howley's men will amazingly secure a top-four world ranking place ahead of the 2019 World Cup pool draw in May. With France lying third in the table they will look to beat their fourth-placed opponents, with both teams looking for their third win of the competition.

For France, the vigour and renewed energy shown by Guy Noves selections will mean nothing if they cannot defeat Wales for the first time since 2011’s comfortable victory by 28-9 when two tries from Second row Lionel Nallet and one from winger Vincent Clerc were too much for Matthew Rees’ team when another Welsh forward Ryan Jones also won his 50th cap.

Guy Noves has made just one change to his winning line up with Clermont Auvergne lock Sebastien Vahaamahina recalled to the starting line-up for their final Six Nations game.
The second row had missed the victory over Italy in Rome through injury, with Julien Le Devedec taking his place in the starting line-up. But he has come through fitness tests and has been in full training this week and returns to the team alongside Yoann Maestri, with Le Devedec dropping to the bench as Guy Noves shows faith in the rest of the side which won in Italy.

That means that Fabien Sanconnie, who made his debut last time out, retains his spot in the back row alongside Kevin Gourdon and Louis Picamoles. France are still concerned over the fitness of Gael Fickou, who has picked up a knock on his leg, with Henry Chavancy waiting in the wings if he doesn't make it.

Elsewhere Noves has stuck to the same back three that played in Rome as Brice Dulin and Virimi Vakatawa keep their places in the side.  The only other change to the matchday squad sees Camille Chat replace the injured Christopher Tolofua as hooker cover on the bench.

Wales will need another dominating defensive performance and they will need Tipuric and Warburton to shut down Picamoles and Gourdon in the same way they blunted the Irish back row.  Don’t expect too many tries in what should be a tight encounter. Wales, have conceded only five tries in their four matches, fewer than anyone else. France have scored a mere six , the joint fewest with Italy and four of those came during last week's bonus point win in Rome. In that case, the penalty count may become crucial. France have been much more disciplined this season but are still guilty of guilty of giving away 47 penalties in their four matches to only 39 for Wales.

I do fear the Welsh pack may struggle in the set piece against Europe’s best scrummagers and Webb v Serin is the match up of the two best scrum halves in the championship will also be critical. Whomever can get their back lines attacking at pace will win the match. George North has a great try scoring record against France and will need to be at his best again as Nakataci and Vakatawa are both penetrating runners who can cause all sorts of damage to defensive lines if they run the angles.
France have the edge at centre where Scott Williams has not really worked well for Wales. I don’t see Wales winning again and Les Bleus will end their season on a high note with a narrow victory.

France 20 Wales 16

IRELAND v ENGLAND

Ireland will be bitterly disappointed with their inability to come away from Cardiff without any points but also to once again to fail to penetrate a “Rourke’s’ drift” defence as in their earlier game against Scotland. In both of the two losses there have been very small margins between victory and defeat. It’s an easy say, and it’s not to deny whatever shortcomings have got in the way, but it could easily have been Ireland going for a Grand Slam this weekend.

There are some very encouraging signs for the Irish. There’s a new centre partnership there with Robbie Henshaw and Garry Ringrose, they're improving with every game and Irish fans have to be patient.

I’ve heard the point made about the game on Friday about just how physical an encounter it was - and it was. You were almost flinging with every bone crunching tackle. However much you highlight the input of Wales’ big players North, Warburton and Justin Tipuric; if you look at the stats, the lightest and smallest player on the field was Keith Earls, and nobody beat more defenders in the 80 minutes and nobody made more metres than he did.

Elsewhere Ireland didn’t look so convincing. My preview pointed out the back row battle as fundamental and despite CJ Stander’s strong efforts, the Welsh back row definitely had the better of Ireland and not only in the back row. The Welsh front five had strong games against Ireland and several of the Irish established players looked like they were struggling with the intensity. Jamie Heaslip in particular looks past his prime whilst Sean O’Brien had a very low key game by his standards.

Another player who I fear we may never see again in the green jersey is Tommy Bowe. He has been a very popular player in both Ireland and Wales due to his playing spells at both Ulster and the Ospreys. The initial analysis seems to indicate he has a suspected fracture of his left leg. One can wish him a speedy recovery but with his injury history and age – I would not be surprised if he doesn’t return again at this level and I fear an impending retirement announcement.

Ireland have lost two key players for the tie against England as Conor Murray and Rob Kearney will both miss Ireland’s showdown with England on Saturday through injury, while Devin Toner has been dropped as coach Joe Schmidt made three changes to the team beaten by Wales.

Murray suffered a stinger injury to the shoulder in the defeat against Wales last Friday and was on course to start during the week but this morning, the No 9 failed a fitness test.
Connacht scrum-half Kieran Marmion, who replaced Murray last week, will win his 13th cap, while Leinster's Luke McGrath is on the bench.

Full-back Kearney has suffered a knee injury, which will require surgery, paving the way for the return of Jared Payne, who last featured for Ireland against Australia in November. New Zealand born Payne has also recently recovered from injury and has played three games for Ulster in the last few weeks.

Second-row Toner, an erstwhile mainstay in Schmidt’s side, has been replaced by Iain Henderson. The Ulster lock is preferred for his dynamism around the field, deemed necessary to counter the impact of England’s mobile second row of Joe Launchbury and Courtney Lawes.

Keith Earls, who was rested during the week due to a groin issue, has been passed fit and Simon Zebo joins him on the wing.

Jonathan Sexton, who underwent and passed HIA protocols after the Cardiff defeat, is named at out-half with Robbie Henshaw and Garry Ringrose outside him in the centre.

The front row of Jack McGrath, captain Rory Best and Tadhg Furlong is retained, Henderson joins Donnacha Ryan behind them, while the back row combination of CJ Stander, Sean O’Brien and Jamie Heaslip stays the same.

Munster back Andrew Conway could make his Ireland debut after being named on the bench.
It is the childhood dream of every Irish player North, South, East & West to beat England and this weekend will be every extra incentive needed.  All the pressure is on England and their record and the Irish will love it pulling the wheels of the worst drone tune in sport.

For England, their performance against Scotland was absolutely sublime – about as good as it gets. This team is the first Northern Hemisphere side to reach those heights since England’s epic 2003 World Cup win and the wealth of the RFU and the playing strength at their disposal must now make England the World Cup favourites.  For Eddie Jones, winning another Six Nations title is a step towards that ultimate prize and nothing less than a victory in Dublin will satisfy him.

This will be England’s fourth foray to the Irish capital in pursuit of securing a Grand Slam in the Six Nations era and the fact that they have lost two of the previous three leaves the undefeated champions with a score to settle as well as a world record to break.

It’s not surprising to therefore see Eddie Jones change his starting XV to field his strongest available side with only long term injury absentees Chris Robshaw and George Kruis missing.

Jones has recalled both Billy Vunipola and Anthony Watson to start England's attempt at securing back-to-back Grand Slams. Vunipola replaces Nathan Hughes at number eight and Watson is recalled at the expense of Jack Nowell on the right wing in a straight swap between starting XV and bench. Both players made try-scoring returns last weekend in their first appearances of the championship, the Saracens back row driving over from close range in the third quarter and the latter picking a superb line to finish a thrilling team move.

Elliot Daly continues in the number 11 jersey after passing the return to play protocols for suspected concussion sustained in the 61-21 demolition of Scotland last Saturday.

On the bench, Tom Wood will win his 50th cap if he steps off the bench at the Aviva Stadium.
It’s a powerful looking England line up and Ireland really will need to be right on their A game if they are going to upset the applecart and deny the English. Ireland will want to die on the pitch rather than lose to England but the men in white have a very good record at the Aviva Stadium with both teams winning two encounters out of the matches played since the stadium redevelopment. I feel England have the momentum and the edge. If this was a championship decider then I would go with my original thoughts that Ireland would spoil England’s party but now with the championship in the bag, England will not want to take the foot off the throat and Eddie Jones will want to continue his mind games with the all Blacks by breaking their consecutive win record.

The English back division have the edge but perhaps one of the more intriguing battles with Lions places up for grabs will be the outside half battle. Jonny Sexton again had injury concerns after the game in Cardiff but is really a crucial figure in Ireland’s game plan. He gets Ireland’s back line moving directing the play and he will certainly want to marshal and constrain his opposite number George Ford.

In the forwards, England do I feel have the edge in the front five and once again the dominance in the forwards will come down to who controls the breakdown and has the stronger back row performance. This could be the match of the championship but despite the passion and the hostile atmosphere the crowd will add to the event, I don’t see Ireland bouncing back from their loss in Cardiff. England all the way and back to back Grand Slam triumphs!

Ireland 16 England 23





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Six Nations Week 4 – England at the brink…

Six Nations Week 4 – England at the brink…

After a week break, the 2017 Six Nations returns with the penultimate set of matches. Round 3 was an interesting set of contests with Scotland, Ireland and England victorious and Wales, France and Italy left contemplating what could have been. 

As we enter the home stretch, results in this round could crown England as champions with one week to go. Top of the pile on 13 points, England could be crowned champions as early as Saturday with victory over Scotland and a Welsh win over Ireland.

A win would take them to 17 points, with four tries pushing them to 18, and in that scenario, only the Irish could catch them depending on their result in Cardiff. While Ireland's title hopes wouldn't necessarily be over with defeat in Wales, they would need a Scottish win at Twickenham to stay in with a shout.

Having already dropped one game though, away to Scotland in Round One, they cannot really afford a second loss, and at least they have the comfort of having their fate in their own hands.

For Wales and France, it’s all about getting back to the winning habit with the two teams due to line up for their final games against each other in Paris next weekend.

So three more exciting encounters this weekend – let’s assess who are the likely winners and losers:

WALES v IRELAND

There was a great quote this week from Billy Keene in the Irish Independent that “Rugby makes Wales Welsh”. Being Welsh, I can identify with that sentiment and Wales against Ireland always has a much different attitude and sentiment from Wales against England or any other of the Six Nations opponents. With a large Welsh population being from Irish descent – there has always been a close emotional bond between the two sets of supporters although that bonhomie has not always been shared between the players.

Keith Wood’s negative comments during the South African Lions tour about Welsh props has always grated with many Welsh players whilst many Irish hold Wales responsible for Warren Gatland’s decision not to pick Brian O’Driscoll in the final Lions test in Australia. Forty years ago - the first Five Nations sending offs occurred in 1977 in the game between the Celtic nations with Geoff Wheel and Willie Duggan both receiving their marching orders in an ugly encounter in Cardiff.

For this encounter, both Wales and Ireland have named unchanged starting line ups – which makes the summary this week somewhat less focused on who is playing and more focused on the logic behind those selection decisions.  Let’s start with Wales.

Robert Howley’s second spell as Interim Head Coach is rapidly turning into a disaster. Wales’ dismal second half at Murrayfield following on from the poor first half in Rome added to the murmuring of discontent and unhappiness in the Principality.  The head in the sand mentality shown by Howley is frankly astounding and one has to seriously question his state of mind if he feels this Welsh team is performing at any acceptable standard. The hope and optimism of a squad with seven uncapped players has all but disappeared as the conservatism and lack of imagination shown by the Welsh coaches frankly beggars’ belief.

Wales had an opportunity to blow Scotland away at Murrayfield with a strong first half showing but were lacking ideas in the second half and failed to dominate a weakened Scottish set piece.  More concerning was the lack of leadership and judgement on the field. Alun Wyn Jones’s chance of leading the Lions was not helped by his indecision to klick the points at a critical point of the match showed poor leadership and in my eyes he is no leader. But criticising Jones is one thing, Wales had multiple experienced internationals including former captain Sam Warburton and 89 times capped Jamie Roberts on the field in the 2nd half and there was no visible leadership or creativity shown by anyone. When things go wrong, you have to pull your team together and stand as one. Wales really didn’t do that and whilst the coaching shows not variation or Plan B, the players also need to look at themselves in the mirror and many won’t like what they see looking back at them.

Wales cannot afford to lose either of their remaining matches or risk dropping out of the World’s top 8 team ranking and risk once again having to face another “Group of Death” in the 2019 World Cup in Japan.  That pressure must be enormous on Howley’s narrow shoulders and perhaps explains his unwillingness to tinker with his match day squad.

There were however some easy decisions that could have been made even if sticking with the same squad and its very surprising that he hasn’t at least made some positional re-alignment. Leigh Halfpenny’s game has been blunted at Toulon and a simple swap between him and Liam Williams could give Wales a much sharper attacking edge from the back three.

George North made Alex Cuthbert look like world class with his inept defensive display and the predictability of Dan Biggar does little to inspire confidence that Wales have any ideas of how to change their game from one dimensional “warrenball”.

In the forwards, Tomos Francis and Rob Evans are lucky to retain their places in the starting XV after their total failure to dominate the Scottish front row whilst Jake Ball and Ross Moriarty both failed to assert themselves after strong showings against England. Taulupe Falatau and Luke Charteris are both surprising omissions but both offer Wales opportunities to add firepower later during the encounter. Justin Tipuric has a great record against Ireland and he and Sam Warburton will have to make up for their lack of ball carrying power by making a real nuisance of themselves around the breakdown.

For Ireland, they eventually comfortably beat France in Dublin and feel very confident that their championship bid is still live and a win in Cardiff will set everything up for a final day showdown against England. Ireland head coach Joe Schmidt has named an unchanged team for Friday night's Six Nations clash with Wales, with Tommy Bowe replacing the injured Andrew Trimble on the replacements bench. It is the first-time Ireland have named an unchanged team since 2014.

Many were expecting Jerrod Payne to get a possible recall at centre as he was on the scoresheet for Ulster last week in his first start since a kidney injury sustained in the Autumn internationals.  In the end, the only change in personnel sees his provincial team-mate Andrew Trimble missing out with a hand injury and is replaced by Tommy Bowe who was introduced as a second-half substitute against Scotland, but failed to make the match-day squads against Italy and France.

Rob Kearney was the only injury concern for Schmidt this week, but he has overcome his groin injury and has trained fully all week. The Leinster man at full-back to win his 76th cap for Ireland.

Payne’s omission from the match day squad means the Garry Ringrose and Robbie Henshaw will continue their budding midfield partnership, with Munster pair Keith Earls and Simon Zebo selected on the wings.

Johnny Sexton and Conor Murray again are selected at half-back, while Peter O’Mahony is unable to force his way into a competitive back row with CJ Stander, Sean O’Brien and Jamie Heaslip picked at the back of the scrum.

Up front, Jack McGrath is again preferred to Cian Healy, joined by captain Rory Best and Tadhg Furlong, with Donnacha Ryan and Devin Toner getting the nod as the starting locks, with Iain Henderson providing cover on the bench.
Wales are very hard to predict and it’s really not clear which Wales team will turn up. The Welsh team which out-played England for 75 minutes or the direction-less blunted attack that featured against Italy and Scotland. 

One other factor in the match this Friday will be the Referee. Wayne Barnes has once again been selected to officiate this contest between the Celtic giants. He has been controversial in his decisions in the past encounters between these teams and Ireland always feel that his style does not suit their game. Barnes has overseen 13 Ireland matches and the Irish have won only four games – their losing record under his watch - 69% is significantly higher than any other referee. 

Ireland have a good record in Cardiff but Kearney lacks pace and match fitness and Tommy Bowe’s inability to tackle must be a worry if Wales manage to gain any attacking edge. I do feel Ireland just need to watch the video of Wales’ last game and plan accordingly because we all know the tactics will not change. The same team with no plan B.

Ireland have been really lucky with injuries this season. The Welsh confidence is brittle, and if Ireland can put them on the back foot and don't allow them to get into the game – then it could be Ireland by a 10-15 point margin. I expect Jonny Sexton to play the corners and pin Wales back. The Irish kicking game was excellent against France, Conor Murray's box kicks included. Their front row will seek to dominate the Welsh and their ball carriers will wear down the Welsh defence. In Justin Tipuric, Wales possess perhaps the most natural seven in the competition, and Warburton has been in superlative form so far, but I believe the Irish back row trio can be the launch pad to any possible success in Cardiff. There is little doubt Ireland will play to that strength and the game will be won in the back row and breakdown. 

The speed of how the ball is produced by the forwards will be key for both teams. They will need to rely on their front five to do the job and the half backs to control the game. Whomever does that earliest will be the likely winner and Ireland certainly seem to have the edge in the pack I find it very hard to see Wales dominating the Irish team and I really can’t be that optimistic and see anything other than a victory for the men in Green.

Ireland by a canter.

Wales 16 Ireland 26

ITALY v FRANCE

Bravo to Conor O’Shea and Brendan Venter for their brave use of tactics against England who massively unsettled England as Italy gave a strong account of themselves at Twickenham. Italy clearly rattled England in their last match with frustrating tactics before eventually fading and losing 36-15 at Twickenham, which was a marked improvement on heavy home defeats to Wales and Ireland at the start of the Championship. 

If you want to be an expert down the pub on the laws and the Italian approach then Murray Kinsela has done an excellent analysis for the armchair supporter here: http://www.the42.ie/italy-tackle-only-england-france-ireland-owens-3261610-Feb2017/

Given the circumstances of their first two matches, one cannot expect Italy just to roll over and this game plan to not contest the rucks whilst not attractive to watch, it is within the laws and is a valid approach. Referee Roman Poite had an excellent game in my view and his comments to the bewildered English players was spot on.

The Azzurri can be pleased with the way they competed at Twickenham and will return home to Rome hopeful of again beating Les Bleus. Conor O'Shea has made three changes to his Italy team with Leonardo Ghiraldini, Angelo Esposito and Carlo Canna coming back into the starting line-up. Ghiraldini had been due to start the game in England but had to pull out at the last minute with a foot injury. He was replaced on the day by Ornel Gega but has been passed fit and returns to the starting line-up.

Tommaso D'Apice came onto the bench in that game and keeps his spot among the replacements. One of the other changes sees Canna replace the injured Tommaso Allan at fly-half. The Zebre playmaker started the first two games of the Championship before dropping to the bench against England. With Allan was ruled out of the remainder of the Championship, Canna has been recalled and will link up once again with Edoardo Gori in the half-backs.

The final change sees Angelo Esposito come back in for Giulio Bisegni on the wing, having previously started in the defeat to Ireland.

Elsewhere O'Shea has picked Andrea Lovotti and Lorenzo Cittadini to pack down alongside Ghiraldini, while Marco Fuser and Dries van Schalkwyk start in the second row.

After impressing against the English, O'Shea has stuck with the back row of Abraham Steyn, Simone Favaro and skipper Sergio Parisse. There are three further changes on the bench, with Dario Chistolini, Sami Panico and the uncapped Luca Sperandio all included.

Treviso full-back Sperandio will provide cover for the back three, with Padovani likely to offer fly-half cover in case of an injury to Canna.

For France, the result against Ireland must be a massive disappointment to Guy Noves. France started very strongly but faded badly and didn't really threaten to beat Ireland. 

Despite not winning, France continued their slow progress back to being a decent competitive side. Louis Picamoles was the stand out French forward again and given their lack of penetration in attack against Ireland, it’s no real surprise to see Noves make a number of changes to his match day squad.
France will hand out two international debuts for Saturday’s lunchtime Six Nations meeting away to Italy. Noves' options for the back row are limited where Damien Chouly, Loann Goujon and Charles Ollivon are all out injured.

That means 22-year-old Brive flanker Fabien Sanconnie will make a full Test debut on the blindside flank, as one of four changes to the starting line-up.
Talented young Castres scrum-half Antoine Dupont is the second uncapped name in the 23. The 20-year-old prospect takes a place among the replacements alongside the returning Francois Trinh-Duc. 

The return of Trinh-Duc is a significant boost to Guy Noves and he has recovered from a broken forearm. The Toulon fly-half played 80 minutes last weekend and did enough to earn a recall to the national team. In Dublin, France didn't have a specialist fly-half on the bench so the return of Trinh-Duc will be a welcome boost for Guy Noves as it is no secret that he hugely admires the player and when fully fit, he is very likely to return as the first choice opening starter in the Number 10 jersey. 

Noves’ other changes come in the second row, with Julien LeDevedec joining Yoann Maestri, and in the back three where Racing-92 full back  Brice Dulin is the surprise recall with Fijian-born winger Virimi Vakatawa  also recalled from a knee ligament injury to recreate a back three line up with Noa Nakaitaci. 

Dulin makes his debut in this year's Championship as he will pull on the French jersey for the first time since playing against New Zealand in November. I find the selection of Dulin in place of the excellent Scott Spedding, very surprising given Spedding’s excellent performances in the three games this championship.  
Spedding is dropped completely from the match day squad whilst Yohan Huget is dropped to the bench joining Paul Jedrasiak, Bernard Le Roux, Uini Atonio, Eddy Ben Arous and Christopher Tolofua. 

France captain – the excellent Guilhem Guirado, will win his 50th cap in Rome and forms an unchanged front row with Rabah Slimani and Cyril Baille.
Unless O’Shea and Venter have more rabbits in the hat, it’s hard to see Italy using the same tactics of not contesting the ruck against France. They lack penetration and their set piece will not be as dominant against a strong scrummaging French pack.

I really don’t see Italy beating a French team that is more disciplined than in the past and that is playing at a decent standard. France will offer a lot of ball carrying power with Picamoles Kevin Gourdon whilst Fickou and Lamerat should have too much power in the centres. I believe Italy’s suspect fitness will not cope with the physical demands of playing France and if the French threequarters can blunt Campagnaro, then Italy could be in for another serious hiding. 

I only see one Blue team winning and it’s not the Azzurri! France by at least 20 points and a possible bonus point.

Italy 14 France 34

ENGLAND v SCOTLAND

Final match of the weekend sees the 124th Calcutta Cup game between the “auld enemies” at Twickenham with the tea time kick off at 4:00pm. England have held the cup for the past 8 years and Scotland have an absolutely dreadful record at Twickenham failing on their last 16 visits to the English capital but will travel with huge confidence and belief after their outstanding 2nd half showing against Wales.  

England really struggled to cope with Italy’s spoiling tactics in the last round but did come away with the victory and the precious bonus point. They continued to show their ability to win matches even when playing badly. This cutting edge is critical to maintain and Eddie Jones will want early scores to put pressure on the Scots.

Talking of Eddie Jones – I think he is an outstanding coach but his rant against Italy’s tactics showed poor judgement and really was a disappointment. Italy’s tactics were hardly new and have been seen in Super Rugby and have even been adopted by England in International Sevens. England looked ill prepared and lacked creativity. They do however have the best bench in the Six Nations and as the match went on and the substitutes were introduced, England got stronger not weaker; and stepped up a gear to finally put Italy to the Sword.

Given the impetus that those changes made to the last England performance, it is no real surprise that Jones has made three changes to the back division with Jonathan Joseph, Jack Nowell and Ben Youngs all receiving recalls.

Jonny May is dropped completely from the match day 23, with Jack Nowell selected to start on the wing and Anthony Watson in line for his first RBS 6 Nations appearance of the year from the bench.

The biggest boost to Jones is the return of the talismanic bulldozer Billy Vunipola, who like Watson, has returned from injury and will take his place amongst the replacements. England have badly missed the power of Vunipola and his replacement Nathan Hughes has really struggled to assert himself. 

The dangerous Ben T’eo returns to the bench. Leicester bound Fly-half George Ford alongside the recalled Youngs, with Owen Farrell staying at inside centre with Joseph outside him, while Mike Brown and Elliot Daly remain at full-back and wing respectively alongside Nowell.

In the pack, Joe Marler will win his 50th cap for England and will lead the team out on Saturday forming a familiar front row with Captain Dylan Hartley and Dan Cole. 

Joe Launchbury and Courtney Lawes continue their excellent partnership in the engine room whilst James Haskell retains his place in the back row with Maro Itoje and Nathan Hughes. 

Scotland have surprised everyone with their performances this championship with their two wins over Ireland and Wales giving your correspondent his two incorrect predictions. I have to say that replacing coach Vern Cotter is looking like a poor decision as the competition progresses and the Kiwi coach has to be applauded for his selections and game plans.

After their excellent performance against Wales, head coach Vern Cotter has made just one forced change to his Scotland team with Edinburgh flanker Hamish Watson coming into Scotland's starting XV for Saturday's Calcutta Cup match replacing injured club-mate John Hardie, while there is one surprise with the uncapped Cornell du Preez coming on to the bench.

The South-African born Edinburgh player is eligible for Scotland after fulfilling the three-year residency requirement. He can play at No 8 or flanker. 
Tim Visser continues on the wing seeing off the challenge of the fit again Sean Maitland whilst Alex  Dunbar and Huw Jones once again form the centre partnership.

Ali Price continues to partner Finn Russell at half back.

In the forwards, Gordon Reid and Zander Fagerson continue their front row partnership with Fraser Brown and will face a difficult challenge in the set piece against the fearsome English trio.

The Gray brothers remain as the engine room pair of choice and John Barclay and Ryan Wilson join Watson in the back row. 

I feel England will not be as passive as the Welsh front row against the inexperienced Scottish line up. The set piece should favour England and if Scotland concede a lot of early penalties then it could be an uphill task. Finn Russell was named “man of the match” against Wales for his second half performance. His first half was quite frankly dire and if he kicks with the same accuracy at HQ then Scotland will be in trouble as the English driving line our and maul is very difficult to defend against. 

I am a big fan of Jack Nowell and if he get the ball in hand at speed then he will prove very dangerous although Visser and Seymour have both shown very good defensive and attacking skills and Stuart Hogg has the measure of Mike Brown in recent form.

The battle between Russell and Ford is probably the most intriguing as both players push for Lions selection this summer. 

I think Scotland will have their movements and will need to get much quicker ball from the breakdown. The ball against Wales was painfully slow and England will offer more attacking creativity and defensive rigidity which will stifle Scotland’s counter attacking flair if they have slow ball.

England have certainly not fired on all cylinders during this campaign and were second best for most of the match in Cardiff. That was however in the cauldron that is the Principality stadium and this match is at Fortress Twickenham. Likewise, Scotland have not shown any consistency away from Murrayfield and with the English chasing their 18th straight victory, it’s very hard to not see another home victory.  England have yet to fire and even though Vern Cotter’s team have been over-achieving – I cannot see anything other than an England victory.

England 23 Scotland 19