SIX NATIONS ROUND THREE – KEEP CALM AND CARRY ON

Round three is what is proving to be an exhilarating Six Nations. The simple wartime message of “Keep Calm and Carry On” seems to be an appropriate one for five of the six teams. Only 33% success rate in my predictions so far but in a tournament of surprise results, no one was backing Wales to triumph in Paris and few would have expected Scotland to rise to the challenge against an Italian team that was so dominant in round one.  That's what makes this competition the most exciting in World Rugby. The uncertainty and unpredictability are what make us love this game so much. Lets look at this week’s matches:

ITALY v WALES

Ten seconds of inspiration from Dan Biggar was enough to save a nation. The whole of the principality breathed a sign of total relief as Ryan Jones’s team showed grit and determination to win a rare victory in Paris. Wales have only won five times in Paris in the past 38 years and after being written off by everyone the dragon rose to the challenge. Al Pacino delivered the speech “Life is a game of inches” in the epic sports movie Any Given Sunday and that really reflected where Wales were before that winning try.

One win doesn’t make a championship but it certainly gives Wales heart and optimism for the remaining games. Rob Howley has rightly stuck with the same starting line up in Rome, which means no place for Sam Warburton. Justin Tipuric is smaller and more mobile in the loose and is the form no. 7 in Wales. Rightly he keeps his place after two good performances. Captain Courageous Ryan Jones was an inspiration in Paris and my man of the match. What a performance by a player who has taken more knock downs from the Welsh selectors than a punch drunk boxer.  Wales stood up where they needed too and we saw a much more confidant Dan Biggar playing behind a pack, which held its own against the French.

So on to Rome – Wales own banana skin venue. This time things are different. Expect a big Welsh support in the Stadio Olympico and it will feel like a home game for Wales. Italy has been a curate’s egg – good in parts; but they will miss the inspiration of their skipper Parisse who will be a massive loss to them. The Welsh pack will be able to match the Azzuri upfront and they have the power in the backs to score tries as well as kick penalties. In the end it will come down to who gives away the highest number of penalties. Italy have made some strange selections with the awful Kris Burton returning at outside half and I don’t see how any of their 4 changes improve their chances. Tight at times but a Welsh victory by at least 7 points.

Italy 14 Wales 21

ENGLAND v FRANCE

What should have been the big game of this competition is rather turned into a damp squib. Just how awful have France been in their two games so far? Atrocious is a polite description of a French side that have shown no heart for the fight and the total absence of a plan B assuming there was even a plan A! Hard to believe this is the same team who best Australia by 33pts just 4 months ago.  Saint Andre has been forced into changes and you have to say this now looks like a much more balanced and dangerous French XV. Seven changes may seem a lot but my god they were needed. The recall of Parra and Trinh-Doh at half backs looks like the right decision. Outside half is a problem position in France. There are “foreign” players occupying the No. 10 jersey at 10 out of 14 top clubs. Trinh-Doh has a patchy record but he is at least a proper fly half expect the backs to get moving. Wesley Fofana back at Centre is the again the right choice and Vincent Clerc is always dangerous with the ball in his hands.

In the forwards, Prop Thomas Domingo, hooker Benjamin Kayser, and lock Christophe Samson all add power to the pack and it will be an interesting game at scrum time. The recall of Yannick Nyanga at flanker gives the back row a dangerous and attacking look about them.

As for England, they were simply superb in a grinding game in Dublin. Their pack was on top and they stopped Ireland from getting good quick ball in atrocious conditions. Joe Marler stood up where it was needs and performed very well against the over-rated Mike Ross. Far play – Marler is another player I haven’t rated who stepped up after a shaky performance against Scotland.  Farrell is kicking withy metronomic accuracy and England’s pack are a real hand full for anyone right now.

So why mess with the team? I just don’t get some of Stuart Lancaster’s selection decisions for this game. Lancaster is turning into a great rather than a good coach so he obviously sees things we don’t in making some controversial changes. Lets start with eth easy one. Tom Youngs has been poor in both of his games so far, and the recall of Dylan Hartley looks like a safe and just decision. The dropping of Twelvetrees is a backward step for me. He has had two great games and now he is dropped. Why? Manu Tuilagi is a big one dimensional lump. I really can’t see the logic of dropping an intelligent footballer like Twelvetrees to bring in the beast.  Bastareaud is a similar player for France and he did nothing, and I mean nothing with the ball in hand against Wales. I would have left Manu on the bench and used him as a 20 minute game breaker rather than starting.

Even more bizarre is the selection of Courtney Lawes at flanker.  Sure he has played there for Northampton but he is hardly a specialist and against France’s marauding back row that could be a very poor selection. Thomas Waldrom is the specialist on the bench and I expect he will have at least 30 minutes game time.

France have lost their last 5 at Twickenham and it is difficult to see them breaking down England this time. Several pundits are referencing the 2011 World Cup where France with no form upset England. I don’t see that this time unless they get early tries. England need to stay calm and keep to their game plan and kick the multiple penalties they will get from the French pack. Keep the scoreboard ticking over and watch the French heads droop should be the plan. France will I believe shock all of us withy their team spirit and will rise to the challenge and I feel a few English sphincters could be popping second half. England with a narrow 2 point victory.

England 30 France 28

SCOTLAND v IRELAND

The Scots shocked everyone with their margin of victory over Italy. They looked inspired and it was no doubt the best Scottish performance home or away for many years. Hogg and Maitland looked full of running and Jackson and Laidlaw looked much more assured than the previous week. In the forwards, Kelly Brown has proved to be a solid captain and Geoff Cross is a wily old fox who will ensure the front row stays solid despite the absence of Euan Murray with this being a Sunday game. With bench options with Denton and Kellock – the Scottish pack has the ability to stand up and be counted. The home advantage will tell and with cold weather – you feel Scotland have a chance of back to back Six Nations victories for the first time since 2001.

Ireland were ground down by England’s forwards in Dublin and their mounting injury count means we see a far different Ireland team this week. Ireland were deceiving in their opening game with Wales asleep for 50 minutes and they are massively over-rated. The loss of Healy is a big blow in the pack and with Mike Ross being taught a lesson is scrummaging and loose play last week by Dan Cole, the Irish pack is not looking that convincing. With D’Arcy and Sexton also missing – a good deal of flair has been stripped from the Irish attack. 

The Ulster pair of Paddy Jackson and Luke Marshall are bold choices at Fly half and Centre, but have they got the bottle? Jackson folded horribly under pressure in last year’s Heineken Cup final. With Ferris and Zebo out for the rest of the competition, and Chris Henry injured for this game; the options for changes off the bench look thin. If Jackson can hold it together, then Ireland have the belief to go on and win against against their Celtic cousins.

I think Scotland will hold firm and nick a surprise victory. Scotland by 3 points.

Scotland 19 Ireland 16

SIX NATIONS 2013 WEEK TWO – INTO THE VALLEY OF DEATH…

As if the first week wasn’t dramatic enough, week two sees three fantastic match-ups, which will if anything; surpass last week’s twists and turns. This week’s blog comes from Paris where your ever optimistic author has travelled to see the match between the two big losers – Galles et France. Three of the six are looking for their first wins this week but will all face stiff opposition in some titanic tussles. Lets look at the runners and riders:

Scotland v Italy

Italy achieved the impossible again sending shockwaves through la Republique Francaise with another stunning upset in Rome. Parisse was outstanding and the Italian pack will strike fear into a Scotland side that showed moments of flair and grit but could not sustain a defence that could see off the rampaging English.

Italy will be looking back to 2007 and come to Murrayfield with high hopes of a second victory in this campaign. Luciano Orquera showed that Italy are not all forwards with a great display at 10. It is same again for coach Jacques Brunel with only the injured Sgarbi replaced by the dependable and experienced Canale in the centres. Expect more of the same from the Italian pack with veteran Prop Lo Cicero joining a narrow group of players reaching 100 caps.

I have very negative about Italy over the years and I still do not enjoy their forward dominated pedantic style of play; but credit where it is due, beating France was a real scalp and they now can feel confident of winning perhaps 4 matches this season with Ireland and Wales still to face the caldron in Rome.

For Scotland, last week’s trip to HQ brought a familiar result. They will not underestimate the Azzuri and will put up a stout defence in the Scottish capital.  The loss of Strokosch gives young Rob Harley a chance at flanker and he will prove a worthy replacement. I have been impressed with his form for Glasgow Warriors. Coach Johnson makes one other change with Ross Ford rightly re-instated at hooker. Twickenham saw some very disappointing play from halfbacks Laidlaw and Jackson and the Bravehearts will need quick ball to Lamont and Matt Scott to have any chance, as I fear they will be ground down up front. In a likely cold and wet Murrayfield, it will take stout hearts and fitness to prevail. Italy to repeat the past with a narrow win.

Scotland 16 Italy 20

France v Wales

Wales have an awful record at the Stadt de France and this team with low morale and even lower strength in depth will again find the going tough. Captain Warburton is injured again, which give old-stager Ryan Jones the opportunity to Captain his country for the 30^th time. Ryan Jones has been frankly treated abysmally by Welsh coaches and I am delighted that he still wants to put his body on the line for his nation and is not petulant regarding his selection. Congratulations Ryan - a real Welsh legend!

Can a caretaker coach get sacked? You’d hope so after the abysmal way Howley has handled Welsh preparation and selection. Yes Wales have a huge injury list but only a blind man could not see Dan Biggar was hopelessly out of his depth last week and the total loss of form of Gethin Jenkins. What do we get? Three changes – Hibbard in at hooker, Ryan Jones replacing the lightweight Shingler, and Tipuric finally given his chance to start a game in the red shirt.

You simply can’t try and win a match when you start playing in the 52^nd minute. Wales were caught asleep last week and only when changes were made did Wales show any real passion and ability. James Hook must be wondering just what he has to do to start. Ditto Paul James. The Welsh coaches frankly are guilty of more abysmal selections. Roberts and Jonathan Davies were very poor in Cardiff but survive because there simply is no alternative. The Welsh bench looks very weak for this game and it is very hard to be optimistic. I must apologize to Andrew Coombs who I very disparaging said was an “abysmal selection” last week. What do I know? He proved me wrong and was my Welsh Man of the Match. So humbled, Andrew – I must apologize and congratulate you for an outstanding debut.

So – what of France? What a directionless shambles they looked last week. Michalak can’t possibly play as badly again can he? Slow ball didn’t help but the lack of any clear game plan really hurt Les Bleus. There simply was no plan B. The return of Bastareaud will give them more power but he should be easy for Roberts and Davies to handle. A poor change in my view. France need flair and speed not bulk and power.

The absence of Pape gives Dusautoir the captain’s armband and he will need to really motivate France to raise their game. The battle will be won in the forwards and if France get an early score then I fear for Wales. If the Welsh can keep in touch by half time then nothing is impossible as they showed last week. French heads notoriously go down easily. My wife Johanna always talks about rugby being a game of two halves and Wales are certainly a second half team. The question is can they stay in touch long enough to get in their stride? I think not. Not going to be a great spectacle. France to win by two scores.

France 27 Wales 16

Ireland v England

After the Saturday matches, attention will turn to Dublin on Sunday as England are the visitors to the Aviva Stadium. England did just enough to win against Scotland but it was far from a convincing victory. The score line flattered the rose and they will need to up the ante considerably this week.  At the time of writing, the England team has not been released but I am expecting Twelvetrees to be dropped fro the returning Tuilagi. He will be bitterly disappointed after his outstanding debut last week but Lancaster holds no room for sentiment and will have no hesitation in releasing the beast to target Ireland’s ageing centres. England still have selection headaches at prop as Marler was again disappointing and Vuniploa may well start given the damage he caused to Scotland’s experienced front row last weekend. I would also like to see Danny Care starting and see quicker ball out to the backs. Hartley will almost certainly return and Haskell in many ways strengthens the English back row.

As for Ireland, it was the perfect start in Cardiff. They dominated first half possession and O’Brien and Best were outstanding. Sexton was metronomic in his kicking precision and they looked at one point like they would romp home by more than 50 points. But, and it’s a big but; they fell apart in the last 30 minutes against the Welsh and were hanging on for grim death at the end. England will certainly punish any errors and will exploit any openings Ireland may offer. Home advantage helps the Irish but England are made of stern stuff and this team will stand up and be counted. At the end of the day with two evenly matched packs – it will come down to the battle between the halfbacks. Farrell and (hopefully) Care for England against Sexton and Murray for Ireland. Both Farrell and Sexton have cool heads and deadly accuracy with the boot. The team that concedes the most penalties will lose for sure. The winners of this battle likely to be the Lions first choice halfbacks. England to put their Dublin hoodoo to bed and win in a tight contest.

Ireland 16 England 22

SIX NATIONS 2013 – WARNING - THERE MAY BE LIONS PRESENT

Six Nations 2013 starts this weekend with some interesting tests for the Northern Hemisphere’s rugby elite. Some say the Heineken Cup has over. -Taken the Six Nations as the pinnacle of the European season. Whilst the competition may be fiercer and standard of rugby superior at times, nothing can beat the magic of this tournament. In 2013, we have a British Lions tour to look forward to and so the performance of the players will be even more closely scrutinized than usual and everyone will be playing at their absolute best to hit the attentions of the Lions selections. After a 67% success rate last year- better than any newspaper pundit BTW - Lets see how I see the teams will perform this championship:

ENGLAND

Last year I predicted England to have a mediocre season and could not have been more wrong. Stuart Lancaster has proven himself a canny coach and has developed the England team beyond all recognition. This patience was rewarded with an outstanding victory over the All Blacks. Say what you like about them being tired and having one eye on the plane – a win is a win and no one wants to lose to England. FACT!  So will England kick on or will they have a hangover from that momentous victory? I think England will dominate this year’s championship. They have a strong squad, their clubs are doing well in Europe and the draw with all the Blue teams at home gives them a massive platform to build on. In the backs, Mike Brown has emerged to rightly take his place in the white shirt. He is a very underrated player and the courage of the selectors to pick him ahead of more established players has been vindicated. England three-quarter line will be without the bulk and smash/kill tactics of Tuigali for the first match and personally I think that will make England stronger. Billy Twelvetrees has been outstanding all season fro Glaws and he really deserves his chance. I think he will grab it with both hands and make the shirt his own. Farrell is back at halfback in place of the blundering Flood and England will do real damage if the ball gets in the backs. 

Up front – England have a huge depth of talent except at loss head prop. The loss of Corbiesero is a big one and the ponderous Joe Marler was found out badly in the autumn. Hartley on the bench is a surprise to many but Parling and Launchbury are a very strong powerhouse in the 2^nd Row and Robshaw, Wood and Morgan are the equal of any in the back row. England will start with a comfortable win over Scotland and will follow that up with narrow wins over France and Ireland, and a bigger win over Italy to set up a Grand Slam decider in Cardiff.  The Welsh will be desperate to save their season and could well sneak a narrow in in eth final game.

Predicted Finish: 1^st but no Grand Slam

FRANCE

France look very strong and will once again challenge England hard for the title. They will be anxious to avoid the Rome banana skin and start with a win. Italy will not be easy but France will have too much class and will be flattered with a comfortable victory. They follow this with Wales the first visitors to the Stade de France and a narrow win there will set them up for the championship decider at Twickenham on 23^rd Feb. France have a new coach in Saint-Andrew who has tasted success at every level as a player and coach. He has instilled a new discipline to their training and they unusually for the French; they seem to have good harmony amongst the players. Fulgence Ouedraogo, Louis Picamoles and Thierry Dusautoir are right now probably the best back row combination in the World. France have plenty of firepower in the backs with Florien Fritz and Wesley Fofana both capable of opening any defence and scoring tries which may be the deciding factor in this year’s title.  Huget is solid at the back and Freddie Michalak is back to his very best. He has a natural chemistry with Saint-Andre and he will be the key player for France in whether or not they can beat England and win the title. It will be a fantastic game against England and France will be bridesmaids again when the table is completed.

Predicted Finish: 2^nd

IRELAND

Ireland area again in re-building mode and will represent a difficult obstacle for every team to overcome. Brian O’Driscoll has stated this will be his Six Nations swansong but it is hard to see Ireland worrying either England or France for the title. There are some clear politics in their selections and the decision to leave out the outstanding Chris Henry for the Welsh match looks like a fatal error. The Ulsterman would be the first name on the team sheet of any other country but amazingly he only makes the bench. The pack is hugely experienced but will miss the leadership and experience of Paul O’Connell. His absence is something Ireland will have to come to terms with as he reaches the twilight of his career but he will be a big loss this championship. The selection of Craig Gilroy is well deserved and he and Simon Zebo will be able to able to stand up and test any defence. The absence of Tommy Bowe has given Gilroy his chance and with Rob Kearney solid and reliable at full back – Ireland have a very strong back three. Jonny Sexton leads at fly half with the “dad’s army” pairing of O’Driscoll and D’Arcy looks short sighted. Keith Earls can feel very aggrieved to be left out. Elsewhere Cian Healy and Mike Ross are heavily hyped and we will see just how strong they really are and whether or not they can challenge for the Lions.

Opening in Cardiff is a tough start and Ireland follow that up with England. So two defeats will start to see the panic button pressed and Ireland will come back to beat France in Dublin and will see off Italy and Scotland to finish with 3 wins.

Predicted Finish: 4^th

ITALY

Italy really has not made progress over the past 12 months. They remain the whipping boys of the Six Nations but will spoil the party for Wales (again) and will give Scotland a massive fright. Two years ago they did the unthinkable and beat France in Rome. History will not repeat itself and the Italians will not look forward to travelling to Twickenham. They will give Ireland a fright in the 1^st half and will also make Scotland tremble but will not triumph over the Bravehearts.  Jacques Brunel is a good coach and he has worked hard with the squad at his disposal. Parisse remains the stand out player and is a wise choice at Captain. Martin Castrogiovanni, Lorenzo Cittadini, Alberto De Marchi, and Andrea Lo Cicero are all strong forwards but again Italy lack critical talent in their backs. Kris Burton is experienced but highly erratic. In the end the Azzuri will not build beyond their 5th place from last season and a solitary win is all I see.

Predicted Finish: 6^th  – Wooden Spoon

SCOTLAND

Another team with new coach and captain. This year marks 30 years since Scotland last enjoyed a win over England at Twickenham. Scott Johnson has consistently failed when given eth top job and he is not going to find things any easier with Scotland. His backroom staff will gain as Dean Ryan is a very talented addition to his coaching staff and public expectation is at an all time low for Scotland. Kelly Brown is a tough fighter and will add steel as Captain. They have a difficult schedule with a defeat at HQ followed by perennial nemesis Italy in week two. Scotland will grind out a victory and will also give both Ireland and Wales close calls at Murrayfield before a final hammering in Paris.  Tim Visser is exciting and is a real wild card for the Lions. He is quick, elusive and strong defensively could be the mystery star from this year’s competition. Jackson and Laidlaw will be solid if not the most dynamic at halfback but the back division lacks flair and will be starved of possession. A difficult opening for Johnson as Scotland will once again only see one win.

Predicted finish: 5^th

WALES

Wales look like a country and a team in total disarray. They have completely failed to stop the player drain to France and the Welsh Regions have a torrid time in Euro competitions picking up only 2 wins. Their injury list is long and their heads are down after a very bad last 9 months. To many, me included; they were surprise winner of last years Six Nations and seemed to get worse as games went on. Poor results in Australia followed by a very poor autumn and again Welsh expectations are low. Rob Howley has been a disaster as coach and really gives little confidence that he knows what he is doing or picking the right side. Given the WRU is killing rugby in Wales by refusing to support the regions - it is difficult to blame everything on his shoulders. Wales still have world class talent and I am usually very pessimistic about Wales but actually I see some positive light and I believe Wales will have surrender their title but will have an okay championship.

Wales remain very strong in the three-quarter line albeit a little pedestrian and predictable. Halfpenny is the one Welsh player to enhance his reputation in 2012 and he is the first name ion the team sheet. Cuthbert and North remain dangerous and powerful finishers and Roberts and Davies although not showing great form are still powerful in both attack and defence. Biggar has the weight of a nation on his narrow shoulders and is a poor choice at Number 10. I don’t know what James Hook has to do to start at outside half? Biggar has been a spectacular failure for Wales and has never repeated his club form at international level. He also has never built a solid partnership with Mike Phillips. This is despite playing large period of rugby with him at the Ospreys. They seem almost like strangers who met in the bar when they put on the Welsh shirt.  Wales will also be struggling in the forwards. Gethin Jenkins is rusty through not playing regularly, Adam Jones not really match fit giving the Welsh Front row a raw feel. Given their crisis in eth 2^nd row, Wales turn to unlikely sources for inspiration. Andrew Coombs is an abysmal choice in 2^nd row and Olly Kohn from Quins a real surprising choice on the bench. Lets hope the Welsh selectors have checked his somewhat dubious claims to play for Wales. 

In the back row, Sam Warburton must have a collection of pictures of coach Rob Howley in compromising situations. How on earth is he starting ahead of Justin Tiperic? It simply beggars belief and just shows how desperate the Welsh have become. Warburton has been simply awful. He has shown no form and should not even be in the Welsh Squad. Elsewhere Andries Pretorius will give options for Wales off the bench and old-stager Ryan Jones can still do some damage although probably not for 80 minutes. Wales will narrowly beat Ireland before road trip defeats in Paris and Rome. They will rally against the wind and rain in Murrayfield and will sneak a narrow win to deprive England of a Grand Slam. Lets hope so anyway J.

Predicted Finish: 3^rd

This weekend’s predictions:

Wales 22 Ireland 20

Engalnd 45 Scotland 6

Italy 9 France 24