2020 Guinness Six Nations Round 5 - Not So Super Saturday...

The 2020 Guinness Six Nations fizzles out to a damp squib on (not so) Super Saturday with only Wales game against the resurgent Scots being the remaining  fixture to be completed. Italy’s game with England and France’s final fixture against Ireland have both been postponed. With the Pro 14 announcing the suspension of their competition, many people will be seriously questioning why the game is going ahead.  

Round 4 was a tale of red cards, genital fondling and France’s fall at the last but one hurdle. Let’s examine all of the major talking points from Round 4.

Firstly, the Red card for Manu Tuilagi. While the majority view has been that a red was the correct call, some people have argued a yellow was sufficient and they justify that is by pointing to the World Rugby regulations, in particular the decision-making framework for high tackles.

Under that detailed framework, a shoulder charge to the head is a red card offence unless certain mitigating factors apply. One of those factors, which can see a reduction to a yellow, is if the ball carrier suddenly drops in height, such as from an earlier tackle.

Now this is what the defenders of Tuilagi argue happened in this instance, with North going down after being snared by Henry Slade. They maintain there wouldn’t have been contact with the head but for that dip.

But the truth of the matter is that's irrelevant in this instance.

Former South African Referee Jonathan Kaplan in the Sunday Telegraph has the best analysis:

“Manu Tuilagi’s red card was absolutely the right decision by referee Ben O’Keeffe and his television match official, Marius Jonker. They took their time reviewing it but really had no other choice.

Simply put, it was a no-arms tackle – i.e. a shoulder charge – where first contact was made to the head of the ball carrier, George North. That is automatically a red card, with mitigation not considered.

On the replays, you can see how Tuilagi actually tucks his right arm close to his body, which makes it impossible to even attempt to wrap it in the tackle. That ensures he is in serious trouble, and once he makes contact with North’s head, a red card is inevitable.”

What I am told is if the tackler is always illegal - in other words making no attempt to wrap - and it’s shoulder to head, there can be no mitigation considered.

If he is trying to make a legal tackle and the ball carrier has a sudden drop in height, then mitigation can come into it. But that wasn’t the case with Tuilagi. Mitigation was not considered due to the nature of the tackle, but you could see that Tuilagi may have been caught out slightly by the fact North dipped shortly before contact was made as he was tackled by Henry Slade. If Tuilagi had been trying to wrap his arms, that might have saved him, but as it was a no-arms tackle, he had to go. Clear Red and correct decision.

Secondly, Mohamed Haouas red card for the punch before halftime.  An off-the-ball squabble of pushes and shoves suddenly exploded into a furious row when the prop threw a punch at Ritchie’s chin. He connects and even though it was of powder puff quality, Referee Williams took his time reviewing the images on the big screen but was left with no choice but to flash red when the cameras caught Haouas’ haymaker in HD quality. Punch to the head. Again, straight Red Card and correct decision.

Eddie Jones sadly continues to show he has no class and his comments on the Tuilagi incident as “Absolute Rubbish” and commenting that England were “we were 13 against 16” are clearly bringing the game into disrepute and need strong sanction from the Rugby Authorities.

Then there was the “ball grab” from Joe Marler. Massive over-reactions about sexual assault aside, this was a clear attempt to get a reaction from the Welsh Captain.  I remember playing and seeing this happen in matches and its clearly not acceptable even if done in a rather light-hearted way. Again, the authorities here have to send a clear message and the minimum ban of 12 weeks looks like a fair punishment.

Let’s move on from Round 4 and analyse the only fixture for Round 5:

Wales v Scotland

Wales can feel fortunate to have registered the highest total ever at Twickenham and still come away with a loss, while Eddie Jones’ men can feel glad to have picked up a Triple Crown with a show of clinical brutality that took the breath away, while lamenting a costly loss of discipline.

The score line massively flattered Wales who were out muscled, out thought and out played for 70 minutes of the match.

How can the World’s best rugby defence turn to rat shit in just a few matches? The Welsh wall which repelled Ireland in 2015 for 45-phases? 

That aura of invincibility has dissipated in this year’s Six Nations as Wales have shipped 10 tries in three games. Compare this to 2008’s Six Nations when just two tries shipped under Shaun Edwards’ defensive control. Wales’ tackle completion still floats around the 90 per cent mark but the brutality isn’t quite on point.

England like Ireland and France before them were able to pierce the Welsh try line far too easily. Anthony Watson was able to paw off Tomos and Liam Williams without the duo landing a meaningful blow.

Manu Tuilagi dotted down unopposed when Wales ran out of numbers and George North was caught too narrow when Elliot Daly streaked in down the left flank. 

It’s clear that the defensive pattern really is not working at all with Wales far too narrow leaving Byron Hayward with a ton of work to do if Wales are going to stay competitive.

Wales are struggling with selections, the new joie de vivre of attacking mentality and a lack of ball carriers and forward momentum.

The stats against England told of 33 ‘dominant tackles’ to eight, with Wales’ attackers getting routinely crumpled into the turf. Wales simply could not compete with the might of Courtney Lawes, Maro Itoje, Tom Curry and Mark Wilson, and that’s without Billy and Mako Vunipola and Joe Cokanasiga waiting to come back. 

Wales’ offloading game is a work in progress is also a work in progress. 

There are passages of play when numbers one to 15 offload the ball with alacrity around the contact area and even Wayne Pivac, the orchestrator of this dextrous frippery, has called upon his charges to be more selective in their choices and pick the right areas.

Wales had treble England’s offloads (nine to three), beat nearly double the defenders (24 to 13), and made more clean breaks (13 to 10), mirroring their superiority offensively against France, yet they still trailed on the most important metric; the scoreboard.

Wales have been here before. Under Graham Henry and Steve Hanson, Wales tried a flat passing offloading game and it failed miserably. Pivac wants to do the same - the players to take flat passes at high speed close to the gain line. Unfortunately, the skill levels are not there and there are far too many handling errors and knock-ons. 

This leads to scrums, and the Welsh front five are seriously deficient in this area. The number of scrum penalties is increasingly hurting Wales. 

If they can’t, it’s a scrum.

Pivac either needs to improve his players handling skill levels, improve the scrum (or both) or find another plan.

On the one hand, if we are looking at positives, the last three games have been lost by an average of just over 5 points and Wales have scored 7 tries. You could say France are resurgent and England and Ireland are always hard to beat on their own ground. Moreover, it could be argued that the team is in fact in a transitional stage and the it will take time to develop. Thus, in the short term, we need to be prepared to accept setbacks. We still have some fine players.

On the other hand, the same errors recur, most notably in defence and the attack is still often blunt. Two of the tries against England were scored with numerical advantage and we made heavy weather of it even then. 

France are still not a great side by any means and this Ireland side is quite average compared with recent ones. The "new" style will be hard to develop as long as Wales lack effective carriers and the set piece, specifically the scrum, remains unreliable.

This is the area where Pivac has so much to prove, and the area the last three games has done so little to reassure us. It has been a brutal and unforgiving introduction to Tier One Test rugby for Wayne Pivac. 

Some of what he thought would work has not translated to this arena.

Some of his principles which manifested as intense, fast, incisive play at a lower level, have turned out to produce panicky, error strewn play at top level.

If he is honest and professional then he might well be doing a bit of soul searching after this championship. The mark of his career in reality will be how he reacts to the failures of his game plan and strategy.

Wales also have to look at their squad and start to blood new players. The Welsh team against England had almost 850 caps and there were six players over 30 in the starting fifteen – Leigh Halfpenny (31), Dan Biggar (30), Justin Tipuric (30), Hadleigh Parkes (32) Ken Owens (33), and Alun Wyn Jones (34). Another ageing member of that celebrated sextet is Jonathan Davies who turns 32 next month.

France have effectively started again with 19 new caps and an average squad age of 24, with only one player, Bernard Le Roux, over 30 in the 42-man squad.

Pivac has made four changes to his team to face Scotland. He has opted to shake things up ahead of an afternoon where captain Alun Wyn Jones will equal the world record for Test appearances on Saturday as he draws level with New Zealand’s Richie McCaw on 148 appearances.   

Jones will make his 139th appearance for Wales and with his nine international British and Irish Lions caps he will make his 148th test appearance.

Jones will line-up alongside Cory Hill in the second row, who makes his first start for Wales since February 2019.

Wyn Jones and uncapped prop WillGriff John come into the front row for Wales alongside Ken Owens, while the back row remains unchanged with Ross Moriarty, Justin Tipuric and Josh Navidi packing down together.

Rhys Webb starts at nine in the only change in the backline. He partners Dan Biggar at half-back, with Hadleigh Parkes and Nick Tompkins in the midfield.  Liam Williams, George North and Leigh Halfpenny make up the back-three.

Ryan Elias, Rhys Carre and Leon Brown provide the front row replacements with Will Rowlands and Taulupe Faletau completing the forward contingent. Gareth Davies, Jarrod Evans and Johnny McNicholl provide the backline cover.

This looks like the selections of a man who doesn’t know what he is doing. WillGriff John will finally get his cap when he should have probably started against England. Will Rowlands is recalled and Tomos Williams and Aaron Shingler both drop out of the match day 22. Odd.

For Scotland, the win against France was probably Gregor Townsend’s finest hour as coach since the 2018 Calcutta Cup, although ironically, their win over Les Bleus probably gifts the Championship ship to the “Auld Enemy”.

After the extraordinary red card for tighthead prop Mohamed Haous for a punch on flanker Jamie Ritchie, the inspired Scots cut loose for a second-successive victory in the Six Nations after the win in Italy, a fourth straight home triumph over the French at Murrayfield.

Scotland were very impressive against France especially in the tackle area. Their use of the Choke tackle meant they got a large number of turnovers and the French pack really didn’t seem to know how to respond. 

What started as cagey affair was blown wide open by the sending off and the Scots took full advantage on a heart-warming day for Gregor Townsend’s men, who move up to third in the championship table.

With a large French support in full voice on a beautiful late winter’s aftenoon, a slow burn of a first-half slowly built towards a dramatic conclusion.

Les Bleus were put on the back foot early on when blindside Francois Cros was sin-binned for a tip tackle on Grant Gilchrist.

Adam Hastings got the scoreboard ticking for the home side with a couple of penalties but France hit back just after half an hour when their electric scrum-half Antoine Dupont put a delightful cross kick into the paws of right wing Damien Penaud, who scorched over in the right-hand corner and replacement Matthieu Jalibert, who was on due to Romain Ntamack suffering a head knocked over the conversion.

The fine try was the shining moment of a bitty stop-start game up until that point but things exploded into life minutes later when Scotland made a surge in the French 22 and Haoas had his moment of madness as he decided to clout man-of-the-match Ritchie in the face rather than tackle the flanker.

After an age of delay the Kiwi referee Paul Williams flashed the most blatant red card you could see in a game of rugby.

Hastings slotted over the ensuing penalty.

That opened the door to Scotland to find space and they stretched that lead as Stuart Hogg and Sam Johnson combined to put Maitland in for his first in the right corner.

Scotland had a dream start to the second half as Hogg showed brilliant instinct after a super turnover from the excellent Hamish Watson to set up Maitland for another diving score in the corner, with Hastings adding the extras to leave the French Gland Slam dream floundering.

Townsend has made three changes for Saturday’s Guinness Six Nations match against Wales.

Having ended France’s Grand Slam hopes with a resounding success last Sunday at BT Murrayfield, Townsend had responded to the six-day turnaround between games by re-energising his pack for the trip to Cardiff.

Those trio of alterations all come in the pack as Stuart McInally starts ahead of Fraser Brown at hooker, lock Sam Skinner replaces Scott Cummings and No.8 Magnus Bradbury comes in for Nick Haining – who is unavailable through illness.

Brown and Cummings drop to the bench, while Matt Fagerson is also among the replacements after Bradbury’s promotion to the starting XV.

Having begun the Championship with narrow defeats to Ireland and England, Scotland have responded well to beat both Italy and France – ending the latter’s Grand Slam hopes in Edinburgh last week.

The entire back division remains unchanged for a third Test in a row, while full-back and captain Stuart Hogg will move into joint-seventh on Scotland’s all-time appearance list with his 77th cap.

     

The Scots have suffered 10 straight defeats in Cardiff since their last win in 2002. 

Townsend’s team are normally known for their attacking flair but so far during this year’s championship it is the gritty defensive efforts that have stood out. The Scots’ try line has only been breached four times in their four games so far, with two coming in Sunday’s 28-17 win over France.

Their biggest step forward has been in defence, making it difficult for teams to score. Scotland will  need to make sure they keep to that standard against Wales.

This is a must win game for Wayne Pivac. Lose here, and his already shaky tenure as National coach could become terminal. 

The Welsh midfield saw plenty of action against England last Saturday. Between them Hadleigh Parkes and Sam Tompkins had a combined 64 touches of the ball. By comparison, in the reverse fixture in last season’s tournament, Parkes and Jonathan Davies were on the ball just 25 times.

Six of Wales twelve tries in this season’s Six Nations have been scored in the last 6 minutes of their games. There are a few factors at play, including the possibility that their opponents in the last 3 rounds have failed to maintain their intensity after building up decent leads.

More than that though the Welsh retain some very Gatland-era qualities, including fitness levels that carry them right to the end of the game and a sort of sheer bloody-mindedness not to give up on even a seemingly lost cause.

No matter what position Scotland find themselves in on Saturday they cannot afford to take Wales lightly. If they are fortunate enough to get in front (and bear in mind in the last 10 years the Scots have led for just 22 minutes out of 400 down in Cardiff) then they need to keep pushing home their advantage and not allow their hosts to find a way back into the game.

Heart says Scotland can win and break their Cardiff hoodoo but my head thinks Wales will be too strong if they can get the ball moving. Expect a tight encounter and a one score win for Wales.

Wales 23 Scotland 17

Guinness Six Nations 2020 Round 4 Preview - In the Context of a Potential Pandemic, Does it All Really Matter?

The 2020 Guinness Six Nations tournament is at a crisis point.  Ireland’s home fixture to Italy this coming weekend has already been called off due to the risk of the COVID-19 Coronavirus and now it has bene confirmed that England’s final match against Italy in Rome has also been postponed.

The Six Nations held emergency talks today to postpone England's final match against Italy in Rome after instructions from the Italian government that all sporting events must be played behind closed doors until next month because of the threat of the Coronavirus.

The Azzurri’s home game with England is one of the few occasions that the Stadio Olimpico will sell out its 65,000 capacity and the loss of ticket revenue and hospitality sales would cost the Italian Rugby Federation around €5 million were the game to be played behind closed doors.

This weekend’s scheduled Six Nations games will go ahead as planned, following a Six Nations committee meeting in Paris to discuss the threat posed by the spread of the coronavirus across Europe.

Following the conclusion of those talks, it has been decided that both England’s game against Wales at Twickenham on Saturday, and Sunday’s meeting of Scotland and France in Edinburgh, will go ahead as planned.

France’s Super Saturday  final fixture against Ireland still hangs in the balance after the French government imposed a ban on public gatherings of more than 5,000 people in confined spaces on Saturday, whilst England’s final day trip to Rome are both at high risk of being also called off.

In 2001, the tournament last had a situation like we are facing today with Coronavirus. The competition was badly affected by an outbreak of the highly infectious livestock disease foot and mouth in Britain. As a consequence, there were restrictions on travel and Ireland's three fixtures against the home nations were postponed until September and October with England eventually crowned champions.

There has been talk of the same happening in 2020 but the new global calendar and player release outside that calendar and the already busy November rugby international schedule means that it looks unlikely that any postponed matches might get replayed. Rearranging the Italy game is already highly problematic because of the lack of space in the rugby calendar and the Irish Rugby Football Union has yet to suggest an alternative date.

The loss of further Six Nations games to postponement could create quite a headache for officials as English Premiership Rugby could wind up in a standoff with the Six Nations over the release of players who play in their league. 

There are no restrictions regarding Eddie Jones’ England squad. They have an agreement whereby they can be released for Test team activity during out-of-window periods. However, English clubs are under no obligation to release players from other nations such as Italy, Wales and Scotland outside of the Test window. 

This, for instance, could result in Gloucester refusing to release their Italian duo Jake Polledri and Callum Braley if the Ireland-Italy match was rescheduled before the end of the season and clashed with an English league fixture.  The alternative would be to play hold the postponed match over until the July or November Test windows later this year

The only other option might be to play behind closed doors with no public presence but that would be hugely unpopular and scant reward for the national Unions’ – all of whom depend on Six Nations gate money to a large extent.

With these doubts, there is a high risk of the tournament becoming incomplete in a similar way to the 1972 Five Nations and becoming only the second time since World War 2 that the Northern Hemispheres’ premier rugby competition will not have a winner.

Looking back to that 1972 tournament, Scotland and Wales did not travel to Dublin to play Ireland because of the escalating political situation. It was the worst year of the Northern Ireland 'troubles' with a death roll close to 500 including the 'Bloody Sunday' killings of peaceful demonstrators in Londonderry on January 30. It was also the one time that it seemed possible the troubles might spread beyond Northern Ireland and the border areas to take in Dublin and other parts of the Republic.

In the days after 'Bloody Sunday' around 30,000 demonstrators laid siege to the British Embassy on Merrion Square in Dublin and on February 2 succeeded in burning it down.

Scotland, who were due in Dublin on February 26 to play an Irish team that had already won in Paris and London, were unnerved. It was reported that several players received death threats purporting to come from the Provisional IRA. And on February 14, the Scottish Rugby Union announced that its team would not travel.

The Irish Rugby Football Union sent a high-powered delegation including its leading officials and national coach Ronnie Dawson to Edinburgh in the hope of getting the SRU to think again. They did so, but after a further meeting on February 17 confirmed that they would not be coming.

The same process followed in relation to the match against Wales, due to be played on March 11. The Welsh Rugby Union suggested that the match might be played in Cardiff or on a neutral ground, but the IRFU insisted that it was Dublin or nothing - and on February 27 it was called off.

The two cancelled matches - and in particular the possible climax against Wales - remain among the great “what if” scenarios. Wales felt that they were odds on to record their first win in Dublin since 1964'. For the Irish, without a Triple Crown since their Grand Slam year of 1949, the disappointment was especially high. Lions legend Willie John McBride, believed that the 1972 team was possibly the best Irish combination he played in, and wrote that 'I found it hard to understand the attitude of the Scots and Welsh', adding that many of their players had not agreed with the administrators.

Although the remaining fixtures of the schedule were fulfilled, as both Ireland and Wales won all their matches, neither could claim the title. To fill the gap of the missing two fixtures, France also played a friendly match in Dublin (in addition to the scheduled match in Paris).

There has also been talk this week of the tournament disappearing from “free to air” terrestrial TV as the competition seeks to maximise its income. That suggestion has also been largely condemned and it dragged in National politicians in Wales.

Leader of Plaid Cymru Adam Price has written to the Secretary of State for Digital, Culture, Media and Sport (DCMS) Oliver Dowden asking for the tournament to be protected on terrestrial television on the grounds that it is an "integral part of Welsh culture and identity". MP Kevin Brennan went further tabling a Commons motion.

Six Nations chiefs are already distancing themselves from “speculative” claims the tournament will operate behind a paywall under a new television rights deal worth an estimated £300m but are not ruling the controversial move out of the question.

Bids for rights to the next Six Nations broadcast package are expected to be lodged before the final weekend of the regular tournament on March 14 and officials today insisted any details of potential bids and their ramifications for free-to-air access for fans was “highly premature.”

Personally, I think that moving to Sky or another pay broadcaster would be a sad thing. If it goes onto Sky they may be able to offer sponsors more in terms of break bumpers and exposure because it’s a commercial channel, but terrestrial television picks up millions of viewers who may like a bit of rugby but they would not be prepared to pay for the privilege.

One understands the need to maximise revenues for the Unions but stopping people from seeing the national team certainly hasn’t helped participation in Cricket which went down a similar road in 2006. 

England’s 2005 Ashes series had led to record television audiences for the thrilling climax to the Old Trafford Ashes Test match with an audience peaking at 7.7 million viewers on Monday evening - 42% of all people watching TV at the time - as England failed to capture the last Australian wicket to win the Test.

Now a whole generation has not seen England play cricket on TV. The chase for money is of course inevitable but a sad reflection of the priorities of our Sports Body leadership. One can be hope that Rugby does think again and not take the World’s best tournament off terrestrial TV.

Against this background, let look ahead to the two remaining fixtures that are currently still scheduled for this weekend:

England v Wales

Wales have not lost three Six Nations games on the bounce since the 2007 Championship when Gareth Jenkins’ side actually suffered four straight defeats.

Warren Gatland avoided losing three consecutive championship games during his 12 years in charge, yet it is a fate which could befall his successor Wayne Pivac just a few short months into his reign when Wales take on England at Twickenham next weekend.

Gatland oversaw sustained success with four Six Nations titles, three Grand Slams and two World Cup semi-final appearances during his dozen years in charge.

Wales are still smarting from poor refereeing decisions which they believe cost them the win over France in round 3. They will absolutely not want to lose again and to face a resurgent England away at Twickenham is probably not the fixture they want to face next. 

Neither has been the injury catalogue that has been testing his squad’s resources. Star winger Josh Adams was ruled out of the tournament and Pivac’s other winger George North has been undergoing head injury protocols. The complications ahead of the encounter with England at Twickenham don’t end there, though.

Hallam Amos failed a late fitness test and was forced off the bench in Cardiff’s Friday night PRO14 defeat to Edinburgh after he had been initially named in the starting XV. 

Amos had recently been called back into the Wales squad by Pivac but was injured in the final minute of Cardiff’s game last weekend versus Benetton and failed to be ready in time for Friday’s kick-off at Murrayfield. He has subsequently been ruled out for the rest of the season. 

With Wales also short of winger Owen Lane due to a significant hamstring injury, they were forced to improvise during the defeat to France and put midfielder Nick Tompkins on the wing during a game where Johnny McNicholl was also used off the bench.  And there looked to be potentially more bad news for Wales as fly-half Dan Biggar was forced off in the first half of Northampton Saints game with Saracens with what looked to be a worrying injury.

Wayne Pivac has made several key changes to his Welsh team for the clash against England. In total there are four changes to the starting XV and two on the bench. 

The talismanic British Lion Liam Williams has been recalled on the left wing in place of Josh Adams. The new Scarlets signing  wasn’t given the go-ahead to feature in their Guinness PRO14 match at Munster but has been deemed fit enough to start.

Williams return will be very welcome for Wales as Leigh Halfpenny looked shaky under the high ball and Williams will be a key player if Wales are going to nullify England’s tactical kicking game.

Cardiff Blue bruiser Josh Navidi is recalled in the Welsh back row in place of Taulupe Falatau who really hasn’t looked anywhere near real match fitness.  Wales have really missed the ball carrying and tackling contribution from Navidi. 

Their back row has been very disappointing with very little turnover success despite adding Sam Warburton to the coaching staff for his knowledge in this area. Ross Moriarty played well against France and rewarded with another start. 

For both Josh Navidi and Liam Williams, this is their first taste of Test rugby since the World Cup.

Tomos Williams is restored at Scrum Half in place of Gareth Davies who doesn’t even make the bench for this encounter with new Bath signing Rhys Webb being the understudy. Davies was very poor against France and pays the ultimate price and deservedly so. Wales have an embarrassment of riches at scrum half and with quick ball essential against England, Williams and Webb are the best providers.

Dan Biggar and George North have both shaken off their injury concerns and will start with Nick Tompkins and Hadleigh Parkes continuing their developing partnership at in the Centres.

Scarlet prop Rob Evans is recalled at Loose Head Prop in place of Wyn Jones who like Gareth Davies does not make the match day squad.

Evans will pack down with Ken Owens and Dillon Lewis in the Front row. Owens is perhaps lucky that Elliot Dee has remained unavailable and so retains the hooker shirt.

Jake Ball and Alun Wyn Jones are unchanged in the engine room.

There are changes on the bench too. In addition to the recall of Rhys Webb, Rhys Carre is added as Loose Head replacement with Leon Brown and Ryan Elias the other front row. 

Aaron Shingler is preferred to Aaron Wainwright. Wasp’s Will Rowlands surprisingly has been dropped after making an impressive ball carrying cameo against Les Blues. Jarrod Evans and Johnny McNicholl complete the back replacements.  

As for England, they have been building this tournament after their disappointing start in Paris. They got the bit between their teeth in the last game against Ireland and they are putting the pieces together to be once again the complete team they showed they were in the World Cup. 

Eddie Jones’ team outmuscled Ireland with an enviable show of brute-force and power 10 days ago. It was a clear sign of what Wales can expect when they go in search of a first Six Nations win on English soil since 2012.

We also had the ludicrous situation this week with Mako Vunipola being excluded from the England squad under “self-isolation” after the Tongan born prop returned from his homeland on a plane via Hong Kong. The confusion that abounded after that announcement was made more complicated the news that he had re-joined the Saracen’s squad and was up for selection in this weekend’s fixtures. 

The prop was reported to be in self-isolation this week after travelling through Hong Kong on the way back from Tonga. It seemed like a reasonable decision by England this week to leave him out of their Guinness Six Nations squad to face Wales this weekend amid the global coronavirus outbreak. 

That was until Saracens announced on Wednesday that the loose head prop is in contention to play for them this Saturday in the Gallagher Premiership against Leicester Tigers. 

Confusion has since ensued as no one can really make sense of the matter and no one can make out who is in the right in this situation. 

Conversely, the Rugby Football Union have been accused of overreacting while Saracens have come under fire for perhaps ignoring rules set out. Either way, this is a bizarre stalemate that neither party would have wanted. 

England boss Eddie Jones has made two changes to the side that beat Ireland for the visit of Wales in the Six Nations this weekend.

Bath speedster Anthony Watson is straight back into the starting side having overcome calf problems that prevented him from taking part in the first three rounds of the championship.

He takes the place of Bath team-mate Jonathan Joseph, who played there during 24-12 win a fortnight ago, an inclusion that results in Jonny May swopping from right to left-wing with Elliot Daly completing the back three.

Mark Wilson is the surprise selection and comes in to start at openside flanker in place of Sam Underhill, who misses out through injury.

Captain Owen Farrell and Manu Tuilagi form a formidable midfield partnership with Ben Youngs partnering George Ford at half-back.

An all-British Lions front five of Joe Marler, Jamie George, Kyle Sinckler, Maro Itoje and George Kruis start.

Tom Curry continues to wear the No.8 on his back and Courtney Lawes is at blindside flanker.

The bench remains unaltered. Hooker Luke Cowan-Dickie, as well as props Ellis Genge and Will Stuart, are named as finishers alongside Joe Launchbury, Charlie Ewels, Ben Earl, Willi Heinz and Henry Slade.

England’s kick-powered game was brought back at Twickenham with roaring success, using some of the smartly targeted attacking kicks that they have profited from in the past to exploit weaknesses in Ireland’s defence.

England’s whole game is predicated on territorial advancement and it will only be a few phases, even in the so called “red zone” of the field, before a kick is threaded through.

In the red zone, it is often a low hard grubber kick towards the side-line to force the opposition into an exit play which, in turn, often gives England a great attacking lineout to launch from.

England scored over 30 points in every Six Nations clash in 2019 except against Wales – the only team that runs a two-back defensive system.

Wales choked England’s kicking game, offering no space for kicks to find the grass, which then failed to generate tries for them. Even when hanging on by a thread with the backfield compromised, they came through.

As I have stated multiple times, England’s game plan is based on early domination of the match. The early two-try lead of 14-0 inside the first half an hour was insurmountable for Ireland, but they won the second half 12-7, showing just how critical those early scores have become.

England have to be applauded for the execution of their plan, which changed the complexion of the game and forced Ireland to chase from behind against a ferocious and powerful defensive unit.

Ireland’s defensive system has to consider changing for the circumstances. It’s two years in a row now that the same opponent has won basically through kick coverage errors.

Only time will tell if Ireland explores other options, while England will find it much harder to score in this fashion against Wales, as they found last year in Cardiff. They will also need to change their attacking approach as what worked against Ireland will be less likely to work against Wales.

Wales have the chance to put the disappointments of the loss to France behind them and we know heading to London they need to be much more clinical in attack and convert the opportunities that they create.

Wales didn’t deserve to beat France despite a strong last 20 minutes. France had beaten Wales up front and the Welsh defensive set up is really not working too well to compared to their previous high standard. 

Based purely on form, it’s hard to be too optimistic about Wales chances to win at Twickenham. If Wales don’t match England physically then they have got no chance. 

In the last match in 2018, Wales made the worst possible start as a clever kick from Owen Farrell allowed Johnny May to gain the crucial early score. Wales fought back hard but eventually that early score cost them the match.  

Wales will have to go and meet them up front as a pack and back-line 

especially in their back-yard at Fortress Twickenham.  England pride themselves on having a big and physical pack with a few big backs, so Wales will know exactly what is coming. 

Sadly, I don’t see Wales stepping up. The changes are welcome and will make the game closer but I don’t think they will quite have enough on this occasion. Their defensive pattern is certainly not what it was and was very disappointing against Ireland and France. 

The Welsh line out is hit and miss and I also worry about the breakdown and scrummage. I think England’s pack will be far too strong on this occasion and I fear it won’t be as close an encounter. England by (at least) two scores.

England 25 Wales 13

Scotland v France

Scotland are aiming for a third consecutive Six Nations’ win at Murrayfield against France in what will be the 11th time the two sides have played at Murrayfield in a Six Nations’ match. That may not sound like much but it’s something that the dark blues have only achieved once before in the post-war period.

Getting that third win is going to require either Scotland’s improved defence standing up to a battering or a flurry of points for the Scots themselves. France average 21 points a game at Murrayfield in the last decade and managed 26 and 18 even in the two recent defeats.

Scotland’s win against a very poor Italy team ranked below Georgia in World rankings, is irrelevant in itself. It will only matter if Gregor Townsend’s squad gets a boost to confidence, a little wind in their sails for the last two matches, some much-needed momentum, and perhaps one more win?

They badly need it because Scotland can play a lot better than they showed against the Azzurri. At least you hope that Scotland will play a lot better, with some confidence flowing through their veins again.

Scotland look like a side struggling for confidence, fluffing several open goals and going into their shells for much of the Italian encounter. Their squad has morphed in a matter of months from a team that throws the ball wide at every opportunity, as they did against Ireland in the World Cup, to a side that almost never does, as happened in Rome.

They need some balance. A side needs the confidence to move the ball wide and the smarts to know when and where to do so. This Scotland side is still groping their way, overly conservative in the opposition red zone, with one-out passes that failed to breach the Italian defence and won’t get much joy from France either.

There are some positive aspects too. The defence has looked much more secure since Steve Tandy took over. Rory Sutherland had the ultimate compliment of seeing the back of his Italian tighthead after just 30 minutes of play and, of course, the breakdown where Hamish Watson and Jamie Ritchie picked Italian pockets all afternoon.

Fraser Brown is set to win his 50th cap for Scotland and the hooker will become just the 43rd person to reach the landmark for Scotland if he features at BT Murrayfield on Saturday.

Edinburgh lock Lewis Carmichael and Exeter Chiefs forward Sam Skinner have been added to the Scotland squad for the final two rounds of the 2020 Guinness Six Nations but winger Darcy Graham will miss out through injury.

Carmichael has two Scotland caps to his name – both of which came on the 2018 summer tour to North America – but could add to that number after impressing in the Guinness PRO14 for Edinburgh this term.

The 24-year-old has been added to Gregor Townsend’s 37-man group for the Round 4 clash with France at BT Murrayfield and the final-day trip to Cardiff to take on Wales.

Meanwhile, the most recent of the versatile Skinner’s six international appearances came last summer in a World Cup warm-up match against France before a hamstring injury ruled him out of the World Cup itself.

The 25-year-old wasn’t deemed match-fit enough to play a part in the Round 3 victory over Italy last time out but, after completing 80 minutes for club side Exeter this weekend, he has been restored to the squad.

However, flying winger Graham will miss out on the rest of the 2020 Championship with an ongoing knee injury. The Edinburgh man had returned to training ahead of the Azzurri fixture but a setback means he won’t be fit enough to play a part in Rounds 4 or 5 as Scotland aim to build on their 17-0 triumph in Rome.

Scotland’s game plan still needs quick ball to function at its best. The precision hasn’t been there at times, leading to lost possessions so far this Six Nations – that has to improve if they’re going to break down the French. 

As for France, their win in Cardiff has continued their progress towards that illusive Grand Slam. For all the excitement that the ‘old’ France are back and here to entertain us, there’s still a healthy dose of pragmatism in their play. They’ve kicked the ball 102 times. The only reason any other team in the championship comes close is that England’s tally of 100 kicks is inflated by booting the ball 43 times in a gale at Murrayfield in Round 2.

In the right circumstances, the French will definitely look to run the ball but when faced with the option to kick, pass or run they have opted to kick  18% of the time 

That number is also influenced by the fact that France pass the ball less than any of the other teams – they’re the only one of the Six Nations with fewer passes than carries, which points to a lot of pick and goes and close in rumbles.

Essentially the French are happy to get the ball in front of them and try to force mistakes from the opposition. A typical Shaun Edwards tactic - that’s lead to them attempting more tackles than any of the other sides – 688, which is over 200 more than Scotland. Shaun Edwards’ defence or not, that’s put a strain on the thin “bleu” line and their tackle completion is only marginally ahead of Italy’s.

All this means Scotland will get chances to win possession and attack. First up they need to compete well in the air. Then once the ball is secured, try and find where the French chase is thinnest. Unlike at club level the quality of scramble defence is so good that one line break won’t necessarily mean a try. The Scots need to keep going until they’ve finished the job and not get bogged down in the 22 as has happened so many times already this season.

French defensive work has led to some of the slowest ruck ball around for their opposition. There’s no real, traditional jackal in the French back row but they’re an exceptionally powerful unit who will slow things up in the tackle and make life incredibly difficult for securing the ball on the ground.

France also have to stop their 2^nd half concentration drops. They have conceded 29 points during the final quarter of this season’s Six Nations matches. Only Italy (30) have conceded more in this period.

By contrast, Les Bleus have scored 38 points in the opening quarters of the same games. That’s just 7 points fewer than the other five countries combined.

The French scrum has the worst rate of offending in the tournament. They’ve conceded 9 penalties and free kicks while winning just 2. 

The French team will not be announced until Friday – after Rugby Raconteur is published. I do see some changes though as coach Fabien Galthié seeks the winning formula for Edinburgh.

Jefferson Poirot looks likely to start in place of Cyril Baille, who is out of the match with a dislocation of the left shoulder,  whilst winger Teddy Thomas is likely to be replaced by Damian Penaud.

The Racing flyer will probably pay price for his defensive wanderings accused against Wales, two weeks ago, in Cardiff . Clemont winger Penaud, has fully recovered from his calf injury which will allow the French team to keep the Centre pairing of Vincent & Vakatawa  who were so convincing against Wales. Gaël Fickou likely to keep his place on the left wing.

Jean-Baptiste Gros, is likely to sit on the substitutes' bench again.

Hooker Camille Chat (calf) and Second row Paul Willemse (ankle) are both injury doubts although Willemse is thought to be ruled okay. Chat is a real worry and his fitness will be studied day by day before the final selection decision is made.

Scotland have a real chance to create an upset. France were hanging on against Wales and rather generously avoided a yellow card and penalty try for Willemse’s blatant deliberate knock on. They certainly can’t afford to be anything but their best.

I actually believe this will be a genuine close contest for much of the game. Scotland have nothing to lose and like Wales against England if they can front up in the pack and starve the French backs of quality ball then they can cause a huge upset. 

The French juggernaut has its sights firmly set on a first Grand Slam since 2010 after years in the international doldrums, and nothing that we have seen thus far in the tournament suggests that Scotland will be their banana skin. 

In Gregory Alldritt, Antoine Dupont, and Romain Ntmack, Les Bleus have three of the tournament's in-form players, and with World Cup star Damian Penaud expected to return to the starting XV, this should be a routine victory for the Shaun Edwards-boosted French side.

Scotland 16 France 25

Guinness Six Nations 2020 - Round 3 - A Game of Crowns and Home Advantage?

We have reached the mid-point of the 2020 Guinness Six Nations Championship and so far it’s been the story of two teams who both sit at the top of the table with 2 wins each – Ireland and France.  Interestingly both teams have had back to back home fixtures – so now it gets tougher as both face difficult away fixtures in round 3.

The other key news in the competition is the leaked rumour that the Six Nations may become Seven Nations with the addition of South Africa after the next World Cup in 2024.

The consequences of selling your soul for money means you lose control. 

The Six Nations was super protective of its status vetoing the proposed Global Championship as it raised the spectre of relegation. Since then, the deal with CVC Capital Partners in September 2019, means that they no longer have total control of their own destiny. CVC want a return on their investment and the lure of greater TV broadcast rights potentially changes the game.

With these broadcast deals accounting for the largest slice of a national Union’s income, South Africa’s time zone position close to GMT does not help it maximise the TV revenues from Australia and New Zealand that it would like. Being located much closer in time to the UK, however, South African rugby able to potentially make the most of prime-time broadcast slots in Western Europe.

The appeal for the Springboks is obvious and arguably goes beyond financial incentives., The Rugby Championship has taken its fair amount of flak in recent seasons, while the intensity and spectacle of the Six Nations – if not always the skill levels – continues to surpass that of its southern hemisphere rival.

Similarly, the lure for the Six Nations is also obvious. The Springboks are reigning World Cup champions and are a year-on-year big-ticket in rugby. Their addition to the tournament would be fascinating, to say the least.

The proposal faces creating a nightmare of logistical issues with flights to South Africa taking over ten hours from London, not to mention the extension of the tournament in games and duration and the reintroduction of bye weeks. But the Springboks are an established rugby nation and an easy boost for the Six Nations, not that one is necessarily currently needed.

My viewpoint is that the Six Nations should remain a European tournament. It should focus on furthering the growth of rugby outside of the traditional powerhouse nations. There have been calls for Georgia’s introduction to the Six Nations, especially with Italy’s waning fortunes of late, while Japan are another northern hemisphere nation that have shown themselves to be ready for an introduction to an annual tier one competition.

Both these nations have their drawbacks, most notably Georgia’s economy is not the potential gold mine the members of the Six Nations would presumably like in the tournament, while there are even more logistical issues involved with Japan than there are with South Africa given the drastically different time zone and a slightly longer flight.

The introduction of Friday night and Sunday afternoon games have not been popular at all with travelling supporters and I don’t see many welcoming the long journey’s to watch your team playing the Springboks. Home advantage, already a key factor in the current set up would become even more important with high altitude also maybe playing a part. Let’s hope this remains just a loose rumour and does not become a reality.

Anyway – your correspondent is sitting with 66% accuracy from rounds 1 and 2 – let’s see what I predict for the encounters in Round 3:

Italy v Scotland

Both Scotland and Italy go into the game with two defeats each so far in this year’s tournament, the Scots losing to Ireland and England while the Italians have lost out to Wales and France.

Italy had a slight renaissance with a better than expected comeback against France in Paris in round 2 before succumbing to an eventual 35-22 defeat.  There were clear signs of improvement against Les Bleus and the overall performance was a sign that the Azzurri are heading in the right direction. A tough game that showed positive points to build from in a match also blighted by alternating phases of wind and rain.

Wasps’ electric wing Matteo Minozzi, hooker Federico Zani and Mattia Bellini bagged tries for the battling Azzurri, but Franco Smith’s side still slipped to a 24th straight Six Nations loss.

Italy need to keep trying to improve from week to week with a greater physical impact in the game and continuing to perfect the game situations that have not worked well so far. Focus on the things they can control and try to stick to their game plan. The return home to Rome and the game against Scotland is their only chance this season of breaking their win drought. 

It’s a sad indictment of Italy’s abysmal form that only two of Italy’s Six Nations squad that are likely to face Scotland have ever tasted victory in the competition; former Scotland under-20s stand-off Tommaso Allan and midfielder Luca Morisi.

Italy’s last win was in 2015 at Murrayfield. Scotland’s Peter Horne missed a kick to touch, Scotland’s discipline disintegrated as they struggled to contain Italy’s relentless driving maul and a penalty try at the death earned Italy a famous victory.

Italy will do their best to facilitate another shock victory with their ever-physical threat, especially in the back row which effectively has three blindside flankers in Jake Polledri, Sebastian Negri and Abraham Steyn, whom one wag christened “the poor man’s CJ Stander”.

For Scotland, Storm Ciara killed any chance of a spectacle in the Calcutta Cup against England. It’s hard to assess how good or bad Scotland are given the treacherous conditions which dogged the match. At the end of the day, a second horror goal line moment in consecutive weeks from Captain Stuart Hogg gave England the crucial possession to break a 3-all deadlock in the Calcutta Cup fixture at Murrayfield.

A week after spilling the ball in the process of putting the ball down for a try in Dublin, Hogg scrambled to cover a long kick from George Ford. Instead of letting the ball cross the try line before diving on it, Hogg went early and fumbled the ball into the path of Owen Farrell.

Farrell’s try was called back after the TMO ruled that Hogg had grounded the ball with his torso, but it still gave England a 5-metre scrum with just 10-minutes remaining. England’s pack bullied their way over moments later through Ellis Genge to score the only try of the match. 

The continuing spat between Gregor Townsend and Finn Russell shows no signs of abating with both camps issuing aggressively worded statements over the past fortnight. 

Russell spoke about the circumstances of his departure from the Six Nations camp, and how disenchanted he’d become with the environment and the rugby, and how he felt relations between he and Gregor had deteriorated. Gregor responded that Finn wasn’t yet ready to “align himself” to Scotland’s standards, but hoped he would have the opportunity to coach him again. Sadly, after this “shot trading”, I struggle to see a way back into the Scotland squad for Finn Russell while Gregor Townsend is still head coach.

Against this background, replacement pivot Adam Hastings has been solid in the two matches thus far,  handling his promotion to playmaker remarkably well. His direction at 10 was brilliant in Dublin and his composure at Murrayfield was also impressive in the atrocious conditions. 

Scotland’s pack were solid and stood up well but as a neutral – you always had the feeling that England’s desire and determination was the stronger and they looked the more likely winner.  Scotland’s main issue is their continued failure to turn pressure into points. In particular, red-zone attacking efficiency (points converted from possessions inside the 22) is ridiculously low.

Against Ireland, Scotland had them on the ropes multiple times in the first half only to be scuttled at the breakdown as CJ Stander, Caelon Dorris and James Ryan forced costly turnovers.

Six entries into Ireland’s 22 in the first half yielded just three points at a measly rate of just 0.5 points per entry. 

Against England, this was even worse - three entries into England’s 22 in the first half yielded zero points.

The first key problem to this issue is Scotland’s persistent but unproven desire to score tries from lineout mauls. It isn’t working. 

Their lineout maul from five metres out was sacked and turned over nearly every time it was used in last year’s Six Nations, leading to many wasted opportunities. If it wasn’t sacked and turned, it was severely disrupted, creating messy ball for any strike or phase play afterward.

Scotland have scored just one pushover try from a lineout maul from inside 10-metres over the last two and a half Six Nations campaigns, with John Barclay’s try against Italy in 2018 the only success. This is not for a lack of trying as it has been deployed regularly without success.

As Storm Ciara worsened in Edinburgh in the 15th minute against England, Scotland turned down a kickable shot at goal to kick to the corner for a lineout. The resulting lineout maul from the five was sacked and turned by Tom Curry, foiling what turned out to be the easiest chance of the half to score some points.

Alternatively, when Stuart Hogg was penalised at the other end for holding on down near his own goal line in the 26th minute, England immediately took the shot at goal at the expense of a 5-metre lineout maul that was on offer.

Even with the size advantage up front, England recognized the premium on points the conditions would force and took shots at goal.

With a horrendous track record of converting their maul into points, Scotland turned down a chance for three points so their pack could once again attempt the impossible.

This year without a playmaker like Finn Russell to lead their attack, they are resorting to using Sam Johnson as a crash option to generate gain line on set-piece platforms and looking to work off the back of that momentum. Scotland need to rethink and quickly!

Townsend has made three change to his Scotland team to face Italy in the Guinness Six Nations on Saturday, with hooker Stuart McInally, second row Ben Toolis and centre Chris Harris promoted from the bench for their first starts of the 2020 campaign. Edinburgh wing Darcy Graham returned to training last week but did not recover sufficiently from his knee injury to be considered for selection.

McInally swaps places with Glasgow Warriors’ Fraser Brown, who moves to the bench, and Toolis comes in for the injured Jonny Gray (hand), while Harris is picked in favour of Huw Jones, with Sale Sharks wing Byron McGuigan taking his place on the bench.

The Scots have won 22 of the 30 Tests between the nations but the odds are more evenly stacked when they meet in Italy where the results are level on six wins apiece thanks to a recent run of four consecutive away wins for the Scots.

I think Scotland are a better team than Italy and will have the edge but must not make the mistake of underestimating the hosts in Rome and if they avoid any more handling banana skins – they will have enough power to make it home. 

No question Townsend and his Scotland squad are under intense scrutiny  but that pressure comes with the territory when you are a national coach and, moreover, with better discipline they could have won both of their opening matches with a little luck. 

Scotland boast a better balance, with Jamie Ritchie offering a lineout option and turnover expertise, Magnus Bradbury is the bruising ball carrier that Scotland have been missing and Watson is carrier, link man and poacher who will hope to fill his boots at the breakdown.

The match is gearing up to be a battle Royale in Rome. Scotland will not be wanting to repeat the situation from  two years ago when it took a penalty from Greig Laidlaw’s boot in the 79th minute to snatch what had looked an unlikely win with Scotland trailing 24-12.

Scotland by one score.

Italy 17 Scotland 22

Wales v France

Wayne Pivac’s dream start to succeed Warren Gatland as Wales head coach with comfortable wins against the Barbarians and Italy came crashing down in Ireland as Wales struggled for possession and territory, and Pivac’s men were blown away in the Dublin wind.

They will be disappointed with their slow start in Dublin and the constant errors they made throughout the game. Their narrowness in defence gave Ireland the opportunity to go wide and Ireland also won the pack battle with Front and back rows both dominant despite another strong showing from Justin Tipuric. 

Nick Tompkins found out that test rugby is not all champagne and success as he missed five crucial tackles in that nightmare 1st half. Such profligacy will not help his cause despite a stronger second half and some bullet passing. Owen Watkin was strong last weekend for the Ospreys and I would expect him to start against France where defensive strength will be the key to stopping France’s dangerous threequarters. 

Ken Owens had another poor game in Dublin and looks past his best but with continued injury doubts over heir apparent Elliott Dee means he will keep his place. It’s a constant embarrassment that Wales have had two former hookers as Forward Coaches – Robyn McBryde and now Jonathan Humphries – yet their line out throwing accuracy still resembles a scud missile and the lack of cleanly won secure ball prevents them building a sustained forward platform. 

Aaron Wainwright was anonymous and Jake Ball also had an off day.  I would expect Aaron Shingler to be right back in contention to start this match. 

They clearly need to put Dublin behind them and put themselves in a better position against France. Wales are looking to bounce back the round two defeat in Dublin where they feel their scrum was incorrectly penalised. There has been whining all week about illegal “cheating” at the scrums. Come on – you play to the referee and this whiny nonsense makes Wales sound like sour losers. 

Despite the disappointing display, there are reasons for optimism as Pivac and his new coaching set up look to build on their experience with Scarlets and operate a more expansive game. Pivac is following a path set out by his mentor Steve Hansen.

The Gatland era, whilst incredibly effective and successful, really went away from the running creative style that many Welsh fans consider their heritage and lifeblood.

Wayne Pivac and Stephen Jones are set in returning to these days. They have started this journey with a little Scarlets panache and a return to basics.

Wales’ new attack shape looks to be similar to Japan’s and England’s patterns under Eddie Jones, the key difference being England are more inclined to run “off-9” than Wales who focus more on running “off-10”.

Japan use a similar attack pattern with a strong 10-12 Outside Half/Inside Centre axis, that allowed has them to stretch the defence across the field whilst maintaining numbers in attack.

With Wales, we have started to see a similar setup in phase play. In the absence of Gareth Anscombe, Dan Biggar has been very prevalent in this Welsh attack shape, whilst the second receiver for Wales is often the outside centre or full-back due to Hadleigh Parkes’ crash ball role.

With the mobility and experience in the back row that Pivac can call upon, this is a natural fit for the Welsh team. The Pro14 allows more contesting at the breakdown than any other competition, this combined with Sam Warburtons’ coaching influence means Wales can start to bring a natural efficacy to this game-plan than other teams could.

With the modern rush defence, the back three players are finding themselves more and more nullified on the wings. Pivac and Jones are building a structure for them to follow the play and be useful elsewhere.

Dan Biggar is now providing this option with his increased skill at taking the ball to the line, much like Ford provides England. It was therefore very concerning to see him leave the field in Dublin after clashing heads with Ireland centre Robbie Henshaw during Wales’ 24-14 defeat..

The Northampton Saints playmaker failed a dressing room head injury assessment (HIA) shortly afterwards.

I feel you have to admire the direction of the Welsh management in these early days. We’ve seen the wingers coming in at first receiver, as well as the inside options to target the fringes, combatting the rush defence. 

We’ve seen forwards as distributors, and an increasing rise in the offloading game to pierce the defensive line as shown with Wales opening try in Dublin through Tomos Williams. Watch the build-up and the superb offload pass which enabled the scrum half to dance through to score.

It’s early days, but all this is pointing to a game where Wales can literally bring too many options for a defence to bear at high speed. If they can get it right, not many teams will be able to live with it.

Welsh back Owen Williams – who sustained a hamstring injury in the warm-up ahead of Wales’ fixture against Ireland at the weekend – has been ruled out of the remainder of Wales’ Guinness Six Nations Campaign after a further assessment has concluded that the injury was more significant than first thought.

Pivac has called Cardiff Blues back Hallam Amos into their Guinness Six Nations squad.  The 22-cap Amos replaces Blues team-mate Owen Lane who was released from the squad earlier in the campaign due to injury.

Wayne Pivac’s decision to only call up Amos means the coach is sticking with just two out-halves in his squad and has every confidence that Dan Biggar has overcome his third head injury of the season. It follows rumours that Bath’s Rhys Priestland was in the running for a call-up. 

France will be coming to Cardiff on the back of two home wins and full of confidence. The win over Italy was comfortable but once again they seemed to go off the boil and let their opponents back into the game rather than putting them to the sword. They need to not come to Cardiff over-confident as Wales have not lost at home in their last six tournament home matches. 

They will also be cognizant that Guy Noves’ French side started off with two wins in 2016 and then lost 27-6 to Wales in Cardiff. To their advantage this time, they have fact that this is a Wales side also in transition. 

The France fixture will also see the return of Shaun Edwards to Cardiff. They  will be physical and bring line speed, with Shaun being there will give them a structure in defence.

The reality is that France have the second biggest playing base in the world next to England. Its also true that they have finished in the top half of the Six Nations only twice since their 2010 Grand Slam.

Their Top 14 competition isn’t necessarily the best way to prepare their players for the step up into international rugby. It’s too easy to say ‘there are too many foreign players’ in their league because with 14 clubs young players get as many if not more opportunities than elsewhere. 

The style of play sometimes doesn’t help. Some clubs that will just play huge packs to overwhelm sides. To play at international level, you need to play at a higher tempo. 

France were so, so close to reaching a World Cup semi-final against South Africa after largely outplaying Wales in Japan and you have a feeling that France are “due” a win over Wales. 

Last year, we had the Six Nations game when they went 16-0 up against Wales and gifted them two tries and the World Cup quarter-final – they should have won both games. I don’t think there will be the fear that there was there a while back but there is a little pressure on them to continue their momentum in this tournament. 

Two of France’s most potent attacking threats are set to return for their side’s Guinness Six Nations clash with Wales.

Virimi Vakatawa,  and Camille Chat are set to return after they were named in the 28-man squad to face Wales. Fijian-born powerhouse Vakatawa has been in sensational form all season for the Parisian club, but missed France’s win over Italy due to injury. 

Damian Penaud also featured in the opening game against England but missed out last weekend due to a calf injury looks to have not fully recovered from his left calf injury, and Clermont winger Penaud  could be replaced by Paris centre Gaël Fickou.

Penaud did not participate in the high intensity training on Tuesday in Marcoussis which is not a good sign four days before the game against Wales.  Gaël Fickou took his place in training on the left wing leaving Arthur Vincent likely to partner Virimi Vakatawa in the middle of the field.

One player who  definitely won’t feature is Vincent Rattez, who broke his leg in the latter stages of the Italy game.

Wales have home advantage and with a closed roof they will not endure the wind and rain that caused them so many problems in Dublin. They need to tighten up their defence and keep possession of the ball. The failing scrum and weak line out win % hasn’t helped their cause and they definitely need to be tighter up front.

France will no doubt battle in the pack and try to release their speedy back division. Antoine Dupont has rapidly risen to be on of , if not the;  best scrum halves in World Rugby right now and stopping him and Ntamack from dictating play will be crucial. 

Wales, like England; don’t play badly twice in a row and the 10 year hoodoo on the French winning in Cardiff looks likely to continue. Wales by 8 points.

Wales 25 France 17

England v Ireland

The final match up sees Ireland seeking a triple crown against England at Fortress Twickenham. The Irish will be buoyant after a relatively easy win over Wales whilst England have their championship back on track after the win in Edinburgh.

England’s win in Scotland was hard won and deserved. They always looked like having the edge in a game massively hyped up with a nasty atmosphere to match the stormy conditions. 

England alleged that one of their backroom staff had been hit on the head with a plastic beer bottle when the team bus offloaded the squad at Murrayfield. Abuse had been hurled at the English team however as they got off the bus and the failure of the crowd in the stadium to remain quiet during Owen Farrell’s kicks irked England head coach Eddie Jones.

I personally see no place for this in the game. Talk of “hate” between the teams was fuelled by prop Ellis Genge who was criticised for turning up to an interview swinging a beer bottle.

I like Genge and I have no issue with players enjoying a post-match drink but I do take exception to the hate element. Former Scotland Captain Peter Brown wrote a letter to the press talking about the friendships from rugby and that hate belongs to terrorists not rugby fans. He as spot on and Eddie Jones who’s motor mouth Press statements do not help the situation in any way.

England suffered real anguish in their last Guinness Six Nations meeting with Ireland at Twickenham and will be keen to avenge that surprise defeat and keep their own championship challenge on track.

In 2018,  the St Patrick’s Day festivities were ignited by a 24-15 victory that completed only the third clean sweep in Irish rugby history.

England have since recorded comprehensive victories against them in home and away fixtures, most notably in Dublin last year, but the memory of Ireland celebrating the Grand Slam at Twickenham still grates on Eddie Jones and his team.

Eddie Jones faces several selection headaches. Anthony Watson is increasingly looking like he will miss the remainder of the Six nations. Manu Tuilagi and Henry Slade are both returning to fitness but probably won’t make the Ireland clash. 

Eddie Jones has steadfastly refused to bow to pressure to add a specialist No. 8 to his squad although Bath’s Zach Mercer and Harlequin’s Alex Dombrandt  keep putting themselves in the spotlight.

Dombrandt was acclaimed as one of the rising stars of the English game while being named Gallagher Premiership Rugby Player of the Month for January 2020. Probably a reminder that Eddie Jones being stubborn and dogmatic will continue to ignore – maybe at his peril. 

One player who won’t be lining up against Ireland is Loose head prop Mako Vunipola who has returned to Tonga for family reasons. Ellis Genge is the form player to replace him but don’t be surprised if Eddie Jones looks elsewhere with Joe Marler and Bath’s Beno Obano available. Obano was called up this week to replace Vunipola in the training squad.

Alongside France, Andy Farrell’s men are one of only two unbeaten teams left in the 2020 Championship . Back to back Dublin victories over Scotland and Wales have placed Ireland in a commanding position but their trip to the home of Eddie Jones’ World Cup finalists is the biggest test of Farrell’s blossoming stewardship so far.

Andy Farrell has named an unchanged Ireland team to face England.

The team heads to London gunning for a Triple Crown success two years after they sealed the Six Nations Grand Slam on their last championship visit there.

Ireland ran out convincing 24-14 winners over the Welsh in their last outing and Farrell has opted to keep faith in the starting XV and make only a single alteration to the bench where Caelan Doris comes in for Max Deegan.

Rookie Doris earned his debut cap when starting the championship opener versus Scotland but he was concussed in the opening minutes, allowing Peter O’Mahony to come off the bench and reclaim the starting spot he had lost to the young Leinster back row.

Captain Johnny Sexton is named in the half-backs alongside Conor Murray. Bundee Aki and Robbie Henshaw start their ninth Test match as the midfield partnership.

Jordan Larmour lines out at full-back with Andrew Conway and Jacob Stockdale on the wings.

Cian Healy, Rob Herring and Tadhg Furlong start a third consecutive Test match with Iain Henderson and James Ryan in the row. CJ Stander, O’Mahony and Josh van der Flier make up the back row combination.

The replacements will be Ronan Kelleher, Dave Kilcoyne, Andrew Porter, Devin Toner, Doris, John Cooney, Ross Byrne and Keith Earls.

Ireland will want to keep it tight and try to compete head on. Their back row has been inspired whilst England have looked rather lacklustre. CJ Stander needs another strong turnover game if Ireland are to have any real chance.

For England, that early score is critical and they will focus on getting their opponents to concede penalties. That will give Ford and Farrell the opportunity to take some more risks and get the England threequarters into play.

My gut reaction is that both France and England will have too much for Ireland and England will win by 10-12 points. England have a stronger bench, and home advantage is such a big thing in this tournament.

England 34 Ireland 22