Guinness Six Nations 2020 Round 1 Previews - "Lets Get this Party Started!

Saturday 1^st February sees the opening round of the 2020 Guinness Six Nations Championship. With the fall out from Saracens fall from grace still rankling with many players – will England be able to leave that at the door when they journey to Paris? 

Can Scotland recover from the controversy about Finn Russell’s walk out from training to gain anything in Dublin? 

And will see the much-vaunted talk of a new expansive game from Wales as they take on Italy in Cardiff? 

Lets’ see your correspondent’s predictions:

Wales v Italy

First up on Saturday afternoon is Italy travel to Cardiff to face the new look Wayne Pivac powered Wales. The Six Nation’s perennial basement dwellers couldn’t face a tougher first game and it will be a real baptism of fire for Pivac and his new look back room team. 

Wales have won the last 12 meetings with Italy in the Six Nations, scoring an average of 35 points against the Azzurri and conceding an average 11 points per game – a 24 point average advantage. Eight of those 12 wins have seen the Welsh win by 15 points or more. Their consistent discipline, defensive set up and physical strength mean they are potentially capable of over-performing way above their implied probability.

Wayne Pivac has stayed with experience with just one uncapped player in his starting XV to kick-off the 2020 Guinness Six Nations with Scarlets wing Johnny McNicholl earning his first international cap.

The Scarlets flyer who controversially qualifies by residence, is in top form and I thought he played really well against the Barbarians in the Autumn friendly - so it is a great opportunity for him this weekend.

McNicholl lines up in a side packed with experience. He is joined in the back three by Josh Adams and Leigh Halfpenny. 

Hadleigh Parkes is at 12 and the surprise selection is George North as his partner in midfield, with North making his only fifth start in the centre berth for his country. 

North certainly hasn’t brought the house down in the two outings he’s had at outside centre for the Ospreys recently. But he has defended well enough and did his best to to get over the gain-line.

Pivac evidently hopes that with better quality ball, the 94-cap former Scarlet will be able to make an even bigger mark for Wales, especially in the matter of crossing the advantage line. In picking the 6ft 4in, 17st 2lb North alongside Parkes, Wales will hope they have a midfield duo to put them on the front foot and allow opportunities to open up out wide for the likes of Josh Adams and Johnny McNicholl.

Tomos Williams wins the scrum half battle and partner Dan Biggar line-up in the half-backs.

Wyn Jones, Ken Owens and Dillon Lewis comprise the front row with Jake Ball partnering captain Alun-Wyn Jones in the second row. Aaron Wainwright and Justin Tipuric are joined by Taulupe Faletau in the back row, with the No.8 making his first international appearance since March 2018.

Wales have been rocked with injuries in their training camp with Blues wing Owen Lane already out for the entire Six Nations. The aggressive Josh Navidi picked up a hamstring injury and so he is out for a few weeks, while Liam Williams, Owen Watkin, Gareth Davies and Elliot Dee were all a risk and were not deemed quite ready to be available for selection.

On the bench uncapped Saracens centre Nick Tompkins is named alongside Rhys Webb and Jarrod Evans as the backline cover. Tompkins has apparently impressed during training with the squad and there is a case for believing he is a shade unlucky not to be starting. But he’s a quality option for Pivac and there’s likely to be a cap for him off the bench in Saturday’s encounter.

Webb is fast traced back with Gareth Davies being unfit and he will add a variation coming off the bench in the second half when Italy are tiring.

Ryan Elias, Rob Evans and Leon Brown will cover the front row with Cory Hill and Ross Moriarty completing the forward contingent.

Disappointingly, there is no place in the matchday 23 for uncapped 18-year-old Gloucester wing Louis Rees-Zammit. That’s a missed opportunity for me as this is the perfect match to blood new youngsters.

New Italy coach Franco Smith is clearly going to be up against it, especially as he is only an interim appointment. Italy have lost 22 Six Nations games on the spin - a run stretching back to 2015 – and they will be saying goodbye this season to their long time icon - Sergio Parisse. 

Smith has included one new cap in his team to face Wales in the Guinness Six Nations on Saturday. 

Taking over from Conor O’Shea, who failed to net the Italians a single victory during his three Six Nations campaigns in charge, Smith has opted to give 21-year-old Niccolo Cannone his debut while also rejigging the backline where Leonardo Sarto appears for the first time in over two years and Carlo Canna is positioned at inside centre. 

Wasps’ Matteo Minozzi and Mattia Bellini will join Sarto in the back three, with Canna teaming up with Luca Morisi in midfield alongside a half-back partnership of Tommaso Allan and Gloucester’s Callum Braley. 

No.8 Abraham Steyn will be supported by Sebastian Negri and Jake Polledri, another Gloucester inclusion. Veteran Alessandro Zanni will support rookie Cannone – who has featured in the local Italian league with Petrarca this season along with PRO14’s Benetton – at lock while the front row comprises of Zebre trio Andrea Lovotti, skipper Luca Bioji and Giosue Zilocchi. 

Expect a brutal start. For Italy to seriously compete with Wales,  they need their front five to step up and give them a platform. They must give their backs consistently quicker ball than they’ve been getting these last few years to get the opportunity to run at Wales and test their experimental midfield.

I expect to see a continued strong Welsh defence and like many hope for a more expansive attacking flair.  Wales will have too much power and if quick ball gets to the backs then expect some fireworks. The dragon will roar and a comfortable Welsh victory with a bonus point.

Wales 34 Italy 10

Ireland v  Scotland

Second match of Saturday’s line up sees Scotland travel to Dublin to face Ireland. They will be hoping for a better performance than the damp squib of the World Cup group contest in Yokohama in September where the Scots were blown away losing 27-3.

Several experienced players have since retired from international rugby including Greig Laidlaw, John Barclay and Tommy Seymour.

Scottish preparations have been rocked by incidents in the past week and they could not have been worse for this contest. Firstly, we had the sacking/walk out of the mercurial Finn Russell. The 27-year-old was disciplined for a breach of team protocol following an incident at the team hotel on January 19 when he was involved in a late-night drinking session.

Russell turned down an offer to stay in camp and help Scotlandprepare for Saturday’s opener at the Aviva Stadium against Ireland, instead playing for his club Racing 92 last weekend.

Russell and Scottish coach Gregor Townsend have some history but losing your star player just days before the first match through ill-discipline does not give good omens to an already stretched Scottish squad. Townsend’s press statements this week do not show a happy camp and lay the blame firmly at Russell who equally doesn’t seem too bothered given the scenes for Racing 92 this past weekend.

Secondly, the squad have been rocked by the loss of winger Darcy Graham, who is set to miss the opening rounds of the Six Nations with a knee injury sustained in training this week.  The 22-year-old Edinburgh back has been in outstanding form and would have almost certainly started against Ireland. 

Gregor Townsend makes a total of ten changes from the XV that played in the World Cup pool defeat at the hand of Japan.

Stand-off Adam Hastings has given the critical job of replacing Finn Russell at outside half. The 23-year-old Glasgow Warriors player will earn his 17th cap and Scotland will be looking for him to add both flair and stability. Hastings will get his chance to prove he can plot a route to success after being handed the number 10 jersey for the Dublin opener.

Ali Price is at scrum half, with Greig Laidlaw now retired and will partner Hastings in an new look half back pairing. 

Edinburgh’s summer signing Nick Haining, who joined from Premiership outfit Bristol Bears, is a surprising call at No.8, but one that equally warrants a start which will be his first cap for Scotland. 

The 29-year-old is slightly fortuitous with injuries to Magnus Bradbury, Blade Thomson and Matt Fagerson, but there would still be a compelling case for him to start.  

The five repeat picks are new skipper Stuart Hogg, Sam Johnson, James Ritchie, Jonny Gray and Fraser Brown.

Edinburgh prop Rory Sutherland will make his first international appearance in three-and-a-half years.

Huw Jones, who has been on top form lately, is recalled starting in the centres alongside Sam Johnson after not being selected for last autumn’s World Cup, while new captain Stuart Hogg forms an explosive back-three with Sean Maitland and Blair Kinghorn.

This weekend’s opening match also sees Ireland finally move on from the Joe Schmidt era when Andy Farrell takes charge of his first game as head coach. When Farrell was announced as Schmidt’s successor in late 2018, he could hardly have imagined how drastically the job description and team morale was about to change. 

After a hugely successful 2018 season which included a Grand Slam, a first series win in Australia since 1979 and a first ever home win against the All Blacks, Ireland had high hopes of adding the World Cup. Boom. Reality hit them early and they were a shadow of themselves in 2019.

A hugely disappointing Six Nations was followed by yet another demoralising quarter-final exit at the World Cup. Now, Farrell and Ireland find themselves with a huge rebuilding job on his hands.

In total Farrell makes five changes from the side that was beaten 46-14 by New Zealand in the World Cup quarter-final in October. 
He has chosen a starting back three of Jordan Larmour, Andrew Conway and Jacob Stockdale.
Leinster's Jordan Larmour is named at full-back in place of veteran Rob Kearney, who was excluded from the squad chosen a fortnight ago, while Conway gets in ahead of Munster colleague Keith Earls.

It is somewhat surprising that Andy Farrell has only included one uncapped player in his starting XV as he looks to begin his reign with a victory over Scotland. He hands Leinster’s Caelan Doris his debut at No. 8 for the Aviva Stadium opener. 

The 21-year-old Leinster player has impressed for the unbeaten province, scoring three tries in his 10 appearances this season.

There could also be a first cap off the bench for Ronan Kelleher, Doris’ provincial colleague, as he was selected as back up to starting hooker Ulster’s Rob Herring. Herring having taken over from retired captain Rory Best at hooker.

Garry Ringrose is paired with Bundee Aki at midfield. Aki makes his return to the starting XV after suspension ruled him out of the quarter-final where Ringrose lined up alongside the now benched Robbie Henshaw.

Despite the widespread clamour for John Cooney’s inclusion at scrum-half, Farrell has decided to keep Conor Murray at half-back along with new skipper Johnny Sexton. 

Conor Murray was once un-droppable for Ireland, and while he’s not been playing badly for Munster since returning from the World Cup, Ulster’s Cooney is arguably the form scrum-half in Europe.

At 29, Cooney is just one year younger than Murray, but has won just eight caps, 70 less than the Munster man. He has lifted his game to a new level this season and could not be doing more to argue his case to have started this match. Not only does he do all the basics right, he has made a habit of producing moments of magic in big games.

Given how often Sexton has been a far less reliable kicker during recent Ireland games, Cooney’s reliability from the tee would also be a handy bonus. Murray will have him breathing down his neck throughout the tournament.. 

The front row is made up of Cian Healy, Herring and Tadgh Furlong with Iain Henderson and James Ryan named at lock. Ryan has rising status amongst the world’s second row forwards and this tournament gives him the opportunity to lay down a case as a Lions selection for 2021.

In the back row, newcomer Doris will pack down with CJ Stander and Josh van der Flier. Peter O’Mahony loses out from the World Cup starting XV as he hasn’t been doing enough in general play to guarantee his place in the team and settles for a place on a bench that also includes the return of Devin Toner, the headline omission by Schmidt when he chose his 31 for the finals in Japan.

This will be an interesting encounter between the two Celtic nations. Ireland have the home advantage and a largely stable line up. I fear that Scotland without Finn Russell lack that X factor to change strategies mid game. The battle will come down to who starts the stronger and takes the early advantage. Ireland started quickly against Scotland in their  last two outings and Scotland never recovered. 

I believe the Irish forwards will prove too strong for the Scottish pack and they will dominate possession.  Scotland will struggle to have enough quick ball to be able to compete. Ireland with a bonus point victory. 

Ireland 44 Scotland 10

France v  England

Last game of the first round is the one most fan’s will be whetting their lips with excitement. England face a tall order to kick off their Six Nations campaign, up against a new look France side in “Le Crunch” on Sunday afternoon in Paris.  

Travelling away to Paris for your opening fixture is never easy as Wales found put last year, and England will want to avoid the shock defeat they had in their last visit to the French capital in 2018 where France claimed a tense 22-16 victory to end England's hopes of retaining their Six Nations title.

We are on the eve of a potentially exciting new era in French rugby and that is something which all rugby fans should be joyful of. France – on the rare occasions they are fully firing; have the rare ability to cause huge upsets whilst playing some magnificent rugby. That unpredictability makes France an exciting prospect as you are never sure which team will show up.
This year’s tournament marks the beginning of a new four-year Rugby World Cup cycle that will culminate in a competition on home soil for France. The last French hosted World Cup in 2007 was a great Tournament where France won a stunning victory over New Zealand in the quarter final before falling short in the semi-final with an agonising 14-9 defeat to England where Jonny Wilkinson landed a penalty and drop-goal in the last five minutes to stun France and send England through.

The French Rugby Federation (FFR) know full well that Les Bleus rugby’s performances on the field have simply not been good enough in recent years for that proud rugby nation especially when one takes account of  their financial resources and player pool. For that to happen again at a home Rugby World Cup would be an acutely embarrassing situation for them and French rugby fans.

France have been dealt a major blow ahead of their opening Guinness Six Nations clash against England with the news that hooker Camille Chat will miss the game through injury. Racing 92’s 21 year-old Teddy Baubigny has replaced him and comes into the squad after an impressive domestic season so far.

Baubigny is the third uncapped player to join the French squad this week, alongside centre Yvan Reilhac from Montpellier and Bordeaux-Begles back-rower Alexandre Roumat who replaced Kylan Hamdaoui and Dylan Cretin respectively who are also suffering with fitness issues in an injury-hit week for Les Bleus.

New France head coach Fabien Galthié has wasted no time putting his own stamp on the squad and there is a youthful element on his first team that the former Stade Français, Montpellier and Toulon coach has assembled. He has named two debutants in his France team as Charles Ollivon leads a very young French side.

Mohamed Haouas starts at tighthead prop, while his Montpellier colleague Anthony Bouthier gets the nod at full-back, with a further two uncapped players among the replacements.

Racing 92’s Boris Palu and Bordeaux-Bègles’ Cameron Woki could make their Test bows if they come off the bench.

While it is a young side, the core of the team remains from the World Cup, with Ollivon captaining in the back row alongside Grégory Alldritt, with the pair joined by François Cros to form the same trio that impressed against Scotland in a warm-up match in Nice.

Julien Marchand makes his first Test start at hooker, with Guilhem Guirado retired and is joined by Toulouse teammate Cyril Baille in the front row.

Bernard Le Roux continues in the second row alongside Paul Willemse, with Palu offering cover off the bench.

The backline has a familiar feel.  France have named Romain Ntamack at fly-half for Sunday’s opener against England. Ntamack joins Antonie Dupont at half-back after edging Matthieu Jalibert for the role of the conductor in chief while Gaël Fickou and Virimi Vakatawa slot into the midfield. France’s dangerman is outside centre Virimi Vakatawa, who has been in devastating form for Racing 92 this season.

Damian Penaud keeps his place on the wing, with Racing’s Teddy Thomas back to start opposite him.

The bench has some experience alongside the uncapped duo, Jefferson Poirot and Baptiste Serin both included, while Demba Bamba and Peato Mauvaka will look to build on their first steps in international rugby last season.

Matthieu Jalibert is also rewarded for his fine form since recovering from a knee injury with a spot among the replacements, alongside La Rochelle back-three flyer Vincent Rattez.

As first tests come, it really doesn’t get much bigger or tougher for France than Le Crunch against England. This is a game that can set a tone. If Galthié’s young guns can see off England on home soil, the mood among French supporters and players will be jubilant. They probably don’t need to necessarily win, either. They simply have to show heart, progress and endeavour and that they can be competitive. 

However, if France are to lose heavily in Paris to their biggest rivals, young squad or not; the doubts will creep in once again.  No one is set for a roller coaster Six Nations as intriguing, experimental or with such boom or bust potential as France, and that’s exactly the way we all like it.

Rugby Raconteur goes to press on the Thursday before the weekend fixtures – so sadly I cannot confirm England’s starting XV. I do not expect to see too many revolutionary changes for England but with Owen Farrell having the captain’s armband – he is one certain starter. Whether he plays Fly Half or Centre will be interesting. The most intriguing selection will be who starts at No.8 in the absence of Billy Vunipola. 

I expect Northampton Saints Lewis Ludlam to get the nod at 8 with Tom Curry and Sam Underhill forming a solid Back row. Gloucester’s Willi Heinz may get the nod at scrum half, Ford and Farrell will be the 10-12 axis and it wouldn’t surprise me to see Anthony Watson at full back and Elliott Daly on the wing. Courtney Lawes and George Kruis fighting to partner Itoje in the boiler room. 

Luke Cowan-Dickie could miss England's opener against after returning home from the squad's Portugal training base for family reasons.

Cowan-Dickie, Eddie Jones' second-choice hooker behind Jamie George, departed the Algarve on Tuesday night. If he is unable to re-join England in time for Friday's team announcement, Bath front row Tom Dunn will be given the chance to make his debut off the bench in Paris with Jack Singleton on standby to be called up as cover.

England will have the advance of experience over youth and the start will be critical. If France can hold off an early England score and gain a couple of penalties – then, just then – we could have a contest on our hands.  I think England’s power and superior nowse will be just enough to see them home. Tighter than you might think…

France 13 England 20

GUINNESS SIX NATIONS PREVIEW 2020 - I STILL KNOW WHAT YOU DID LAST AUTUMN!

GUINNESS SIX NATIONS PREVIEW 2020 -  I STILL KNOW WHAT YOU DID LAST AUTUMN!

At the end of January, the Guinness Six Nations makes a welcome return for 2020. Was the World Cup final only 3 months ago? It seems like forever! Since then we’re had the Saracens being caught fiddling the books, fined and points deducted, a pretty familiar European Cup with the Welsh regions massively underperforming as usual. 

This year’s championship is especially interesting as we will see four new national Coaches with four new team captains as well as lots of new faces in the squads. France lead the way with 19 uncapped players in their squad but everyone will be shuffling the pack and seeing if can find the winning hand in the poker game which is the Northern Hemisphere’s premier rugby competition.  

In 2019, Wales found the winning formula but it didn’t look that way after a dreadful first 40 minutes in Paris. The tournament continued its trend of attacking rugby with 86 tries scored – up from 78 in 2018 and 66 in 2017. Interestingly, Wales were one of the lowest try scorers  (equal with Italy) with a mere 10 trues for the Dragons in their 5 matches. England by contrast put many teams to the sword scoring 24 tries. 

It was no surprise therefore to see Wales and England carry that form through to the World Cup and both teams had outstanding tournaments. 

Elsewhere it was a tournament to forget for Italy, Scotland and Ireland whilst France at least showed some forward momentum. This year’s competition will be a rebuild for many teams and England after reaching the World Cup final will be favourites to dominate this year’s tournament. Let’s see how I believe it will play out:

ENGLAND

England had an outstanding World Cup with the final just p[roving one step too far at the end of a successful season for Eddie Jones and his squad. Let me be clear – I am a Welshman and a Wales fan through and through BUT England’s demolition of the All Blacks in the World Cup Semi Final represents the greatest single match performance by any Northern Hemisphere side in my lifetime and that includes the 2003 World Cup final!

England were totally clinical in the breath taking way they demolished New Zealand in a performance of total dominance in all facets of the game. After such a performance, it was therefore a huge shock to many that they didn’t go on to win the World Cup.

But hold that thought for a moment. England are unbelievably powerful ball carriers with high energy and discipline. Their game is very dependent upon early domination and tries to break the will of the opposition and frankly rip out their heart and confidence. 

If England gain the early upper hand – it goes something like this:

“You kick off full of confidence. We’re playing England but we are fit and had a great win last match. The kick goes long. Daly gathers and sets off on a mazy run, the ball moves quickly to Watson on the angle. England up to their 10 m line. Then come the forwards. The Vunipolas, Itoji, Kyle Sinckler. The ball moves to Curry on an angled run. Their in your half. Young moves the ball to Tuilagi – he busts through your defence. England go through more  quick phases. Farrell sees May on the move. He kicks for the corner. How did May get there?. He’s over. Try. Farrell adds the conversion. 7-0 after 2 minutes. 

You kick off again. England kick it back – you have some possession and you go through 10, 12 phases but you can’t break through that defence. There seems to be 30 white shirts. Trying to do a quick recycle – you knock on. More England pressure. They kick to the corner. You win your line out but the box kick is not clear enough. England running back at you again. You see the refs arm go out. Penalty. A free play comes to nothing so they line up the kick. Boom – its 10-0. You have a mountain to climb now and the game is only 10 minutes old..”

We first really saw this strategy emerge in 2018 when England scored tries in the 2^nd minute against Italy, Wales, and Ireland – going on to win two of the three matches. Eddie Joes continued to develop his plan and it was England’s clinical destruction of Ireland at the Aviva Stadium. Where the plan was finally perfected. If we analyse 6 games where England dominated in 2019 what we see is a clear strategy of early pressure leading to tries within the first 20 minutes. If England have the lead after that first 20 – the chances are they will crush the will out of you and have a convincing victory.

Let’s look at this in more detail. I have taken five matches where England had convincing wins in 2019 – Six Nations games against Ireland, and France; The World Cup warm up at Twickenham against Wales ; and the World cup wins over Australia and New Zealand.

In three of these games – Ireland, France and New Zealand – England incredibly scored in the 1^st minute of the matches. Against Wales it was the 4^th minute and against Australia it took them 16 minutes. In these matches, in that crucial 1^st 20 minutes – England scored a total of 53 points – an average of a 7 point lead going on to score a total of 168 points with a 98 point winning margin – averages of 33 points and 20 point winning margins. 

If we look at three matches where England didn’t win – Wales in Six Nations, World Cup warm up against Wales in Cardiff, and the World Cup Final – we see a very different story. In these three matches – England scored only 3 points in the opening 20 minutes – an average of 1 point per match – before going on to only score a mere 31 points over the 3 matches (10 points average per game) and went on to lose all three by an average margin of 11 points.

There are damned lies and statistics but it is very clear if England don’t dominate early and get scores on the board – they tend to struggle and there is little sign of a Plan B!

England also struggle when Owen Farrell isn’t on form. Don’t get me wrong Owen Farrell will go down as an England great but his judgement under pressure was an early failing of his career and it still remains so today. The turning point against Wales in the 2019 Six Nations seemed to be when Farrell kicked out on the full early in the second half. The same was true of England’s calamitous collapse against Scotland. He started missing tactical kicks and key handling errors came into his game.

These factors for me, help to explain why England failed against South Africa. They were on the back foot from early ion that game and could never get on top of South Africa. No Plan B was always a criticism of Warren Gatland at Wales but it’s also a very valid criticism of teams developed and coached by Eddie Jones, perhaps even more than Gatland as Jones has more talent at his disposal at England than any Welsh coach has ever had available. 

For 2020, England will want to build on the World Cup and start the journey to the next one. Eddie Jones has named an interesting squad for the 2020 Six Nations with no fewer than eight uncapped selections and only 22 of the World Cup squad being retained. In total 10 players from Jones’ World Cup squad miss out, with some nursing injuries and others struggling for form.

Saracens’ Billy Vunipola is one of the more notable absentees, following the news that he is expected to miss the entire Six Nations with a fractured arm.

There is also no room in the squad for Jack Singleton, Mark Wilson, Dan Cole, Henry Slade, Piers Francis, Joe Cokanasiga, Ben Spencer and Ruaridh McConnochie or Jack Nowell. Slade is still recovering from a broken leg, while Exeter have confirmed that Nowell is set to undergo ankle surgery.

Of the eight uncapped players Tom Dunn, Ben Earl and Ollie Thorley have been involved in previous England squads while Fraser Dingwall, George Furbank, Alex Moon, Will Stuart and Jacob Umaga all receive a first call up.

Perhaps the biggest surprise is at scrum half where Jones has stayed with Ben Youngs and Willi Heinz – both the wrong side of 30 to make the next world cup. Youngs was totally eclipsed by Faf De Klerk in that World Cup final whilst journeyman Heinz doesn’t look like the answer. A new decade and a new World Cup cycle represented the perfect opportunity for Jones to press the reset button. 

Dan Robson and Ben Spencer, 27-year-olds who have played a grand total of 28 and 24 minutes of Test rugby under Jones, are in prime form. There are a host of young pretenders who could have also been groomed under Youngs. A missed opportunity.

The second significant questions is who will play at No.8? 

Billy Vunipola’s absence has led to a Squad without a single specialist No 8. The selection of six second rows makes that decision seem even more curious. It is not like Jones had a dearth of in-form alternatives available, yet neither Exeter’s Sam Simmonds nor Harlequins’ Alex Dombrandt have been included. Instead it looks likely that a combination of Tom Curry, Lewis Ludlam and the uncapped Ben Earl will form England’s back row. 

Jones has experimented with modest success with Maro itoje and Courtney Lawes playing in the back row. This hasn’t been a massive success in the past but with the opposition in front of them in this year’s championship – perhaps it will play dividends.

England open up with “Le Crunch” against France in Paris. This looks like it could be the toughest game England will face. Forget their destruction of France last year at Twickenham. England don’t have the best record in France and Les Bleus have picked an exciting squad as they enter yet another rebuild phase. If France can keep England’s power ball carriers at bay and challenge their back row, then they can make this an interesting contest. If not and England score an early try then the fragility of France’s winning mentality will be exposed and England should win comfortably.

I expect England to have too much power for an inexperienced France. They follow with Scotland at Murrayfield and a usual England banana skin. Scotland were lamentable in the World Cup and few England players will forget their collapse to a disappointing draw in last year’s Calcutta Cup.  Despite historical struggles, I expect England to win comfortably in Scotland.

Home games follow against Ireland and Wales. Both tough opponents but home advantage will see England win both matches. Both Wales and England will be feeling their way under new coaching regimes and whilst there will be new game plans – it is hard to see either team win at Twickenham. It wouldn’t surprise me to see a record home win margin against one of these teams. England are just too good at fortress Twickenham right now. 

Final match away in the March sunshine in Rome will be nothing less than a dominant try fest and England will go on to win a deserved Grand Slam. Their 14^th “Slam” to put them two ahead of Wales. 

Prediction: 1^st  - Champions & Grand Slam  

WALES 

Wales come into the competition full of confidence after a strong World Cup performance saw the men in red really challenge South Africa before falling to a late penalty. Another semi-final appearance marked a great end to the Gatland era. A remarkable achievement for a country with the smallest number of first class rugby talent available of any of the major front line  rugby nations! 

A new era in Welsh rugby dawns with former Scarlets Head Coach Wayne Pivac taking the mantle from Warren Gatland with a new back room team. In the wake of Rob Howley’s gambling revelation, Stephen Jones was part of Wales team at the World Cup and he is promising a more attacking game for Wales than we have seen under the “Warrenball “generation. 

Bryon Haywood massive shoes to fill as he takes over on Defence. Pivac has further added Sam Warburton as breakdown specialist, Jonathan Humphreys as forwards coach with another former legend Martyn Williams taking over as Team Manager from the retiring Alan Phillips.

Wayne Pivac is cut from a similar cloth to former New Zealand coach Steve Hansen. Both have that same hard winning attitude and a career in the Police before full time rugby. It  will be interesting to see how he will cope with the weight of expectation of the Welsh public and press. For Wales, there was simply no need to disassemble a squad that had reached the semi-finals of the World Cup three months earlier. 

Pivac’s new era started with a comfortable win over the Barbarians in November and he has selected an interesting first squad with five new caps and a recall for prodigal son Rhys Webb who gains early dispensation to return to the fold after committing to return to Wales from Toulon at the end of the season. 

Amongst Pivac’s selections are several English based players with Welsh connections. There are currently over 100 Welsh qualified players plying their trade in professional rugby in England.

Bristol and Gloucester have been raiding Wales for the past few seasons encouraging young Welsh talent to join their academies. Pivac’s raid back on England has been a shock to many with Saracens centre Nick Tompkins and Wasps 2^ndrow Will Rowlands being two new squad faces alongside Cardiff-born teenage sensation Louis Rees-Zammit and Sale’s granite hewn prop WillGriff John. 

Newly residence qualified Scarlets flyer Johnny McNichol is the other uncapped player having played for Wales in the non-cap earning game against the Barbarians in November. There are also recalls for Gloucester’s Owen Williams, Leicester’s Jonah Holmes and Cardiff Blues Seb Davies.

Whilst Tompkins and Rowlands are shock selections to many Welsh fans, they have not been overnight developments. Pivac spent a number of seasons looking at players outside of Wales with his regional hat on. Whilst some of this was to assess the talent in his opponents, but also to look at them from the point of view of potentially signing them up to the Scarlets - especially be the case if they were Welsh-qualified.

Quality players with Welsh family roots have always been attractive to the regions, given the restrictions on non-Welsh qualified players and clearly they would benefit the national side and, so, such signings are looked on favourably by the WRU.

With Jonathan Davies missing the whole Six Nations, and Owen Watkin missing at least the start of the competition, Nick Tompkins looks like an excellent selection. He has been very impressive for Saracens and tops the charts for tries, metres carried and defenders beaten in the Gallagher Premiership since 2018. He appears to be a genuine steal from under Eddie Jones’ nose and it’s a notable coup for Pivac as the former England U18s, U20s and Saxons player is such a quality performer. You don’t play as many times as he has for the European champions without being talented. A life post-Jonathan Davies has to be considered and stiff competition for Owen Watkin will prove beneficial to males. 

Wales lack depth at centre and with potential new recruit Cardiff Blues flyer Willis Halaholo is unavailable through injury, Owen Williams and Tompkins represent solid options along with the more speculative thoughts of playing either George North or Josh Adams in the midfield. 

In the pack, Wales have had an outstanding collection of back row forwards for many years and the return of Taulupe Faletau and Aaron Shingler will be a welcome sight. Faletau has a personally dreadful 18 months since his controversial move to Bath and to see him return fit and healthy is a good morale booster. There is simply no back row with the multitude of skills he possesses – whether it’s roaming the wide channels, working the feet with short carries around the fringes or felling willing runners. There’s precious little the No8 can’t do. For many, he will be the most important name in the Welsh squad. 

Add to that the emergence of the talented energetic Aaron Wainwright , and the selection continuity of Josh Navidi, Ross Morriarty, and Justin Tipuric – who bring both high work rate, huge experience and defensive stability.  It will be tough to choose a starting three from that array of talent. 

We now add to that options in 2nd row with Will Rowlands alongside Jake Ball, Cory Hill, Alun Wyn Hones, and Adam Beard and with Tomas Francis also missing at prop, Sale Sharks Willgriff John finally gets an opportunity for Wales. 

The teenage wing sensation Louis Rees-Zammit is an extremely exciting prospect. He has set the Gallagher Premiership alight with 9 tries in 13 matches. He will find tough competition with Jonah Holmes, George North, Josh Adams and Johnny McNichol fighting it out on the wings. I expect Pivac will blood Rees-Zammit but it is hard to look beyond McNichol and Adams as the form players with George North potentially relegated to the role of impact finisher from the bench.

Dan Biggar and Jarrod Evans will fight out the outside half slot and Rhys Webb will have it all to do to dislodge Gareth Davies and Tomos Williams at scrum half. The Toulon move has not bene a massive success for Webb. His decision to chase the money clearly backfired and his time in the international wilderness and lack of game time will count against him but its’ good to see him back in contention. 

The likes of Rees-Zammit, Owen Lane, Aaron Wainwright and Rhys Carre are all 22 or under but Pivac’s pragmatic side will know that the Six Nations is a long and brutal competition and momentum is key.

For that reason, it will be reassuring that Wales have an experienced spine of Ken Owens, Jones, Justin Tipuric, Biggar and Leigh Halfpenny in the squad to give quiet assurance in times of duress that will undoubtedly come against England and Ireland, far away from the home comforts of Cardiff. 

While some of those stalwarts may not make France in 2023, they still have every motivation to excel for Wales with the Lions tour to South Africa only 17 months away.

Pivac said that he had made nine calls to players left out of the squad. You would be surprised if the likes of Steff Evans and Sam Davies weren’t on that list. Both have reason to feel hard done by, given their form this season. 

For the likes of Nicky Smith, Aled Davies and Samson Lee, alarm bells will be ringing at their exclusion, given indifferent form and the quality that has replaced them. Unlike Scotland and France, who have had a raft of retirements, Wales’ age-profile is strong. 

While you’d be surprised to see Bradley Davies wearing red again, Wales still have players of genuine quality like James Davies, Ellis Jenkins, Thomas Young and Ollie Griffiths who could come again while first-team regulars Jonathan Davies, Gareth Anscombe and Francis all have enough quality to feature prominently in Wales’ journey towards 2023. For Wales, hope abounds.

Wales have the opportunity to transform their game plan under the new coaching regime and despite the continued woeful regional rugby performances, Wales have optimism to defend their title.

Wales have all the blue teams at home and their traditional biggest threats England and Ireland away. They open the tournament against Italy which should give their mission a kick start. They then travel to Ireland who like Wales have a new coaching regime and a rebuild after another poor World Cup. I think Wales can compete and win in Dublin and then come home to face France. The Welsh crowd and traditional poor French travellers should see Wales home before a trip to Twickenham. That will prove a bridge too far for the young squad and Wales will chase 2^nd place with a final home win over Scotland who have not won in Cardiff since 2002 and lost their last 10 games in the Welsh Capital.

Four wins and 2^nd place. 

Prediction: 2^nd 

FRANCE

All change in France too as Fabien Galthié takes over as new Head Coach with a new team. The new manager Raphaël Ibanez, is back from a stay in New Zealand, but the pick of the new coaches and a real steal for France is the signing of Shaun Edwards as new Defence coach. Edwards is a massive loss to Wales and a huge gain for Les Blues as France rebuild for the future with no fewer than 19 uncapped players selected in the 42 man training squad with only one player above 30 years old and an average age of 24 years!

We do not yet know what this French team will look like. But what is certain is that Galthié will install a new work ethic into France and my guess is he knows exactly his preferred game plan, and how he wants to install it.

Veteran Captain Guilhem Guirado has retired after the World Cup and at 26 year old and with a mere 11 caps,  Charles Ollivon represents a daring choice as the new French captain. The Toulon star is respected by all, and unlike some contenders on the front line, he has the advantage of likely playing the full 80 minutes. Les Bleus have won the last two Junior U20 world championships and they can logically count on a large reservoir of talent from these generations.

Demba Bamba and Romain Ntamack have already made the leap from the Junior set up to full caps. They will be joined by five of their teammates: Jean-Baptiste Gros, Killian Geraci, Cameron Woki, Louis Carbonel and Arthur Vincent.. Besides Woki, the other four were there during the two world junior crowns.

These players have always had tremendous potential, and if we might not have expected to see them all in the Senior squad so soon in their development, a senior team call up at some future time seemed written for them.

Galthié and the staff have spent the past few months traveling to all of the Top 14 clubs, and a few Pro D2 clubs, to speak to players likely to join the group. And that's why they managed to find players with very different profiles to say the least.

Players who have caught my eye in particular include Anthony Bouthier, from Montpellier who has established himself as a first choice this season.  The 27-year-old played in Vannes before, in Pro D2, and even in Fédérale 1.

The scrum half Maxime Lucu and the two Parisians Lester Etien and Kylan Hamdaoui also proved themselves at the lower level before having their chance in the Top 14.

An even more surprising example is the career of Mohamed Haouas, another player from Montpellier; who was a fan of taekwondo before going to rugby. He had played for the French military team, and possibly faced a life of crime without rugby. His journey to the national squad is truly incredible.

We shouldn't be surprised to see Galthié make these types of selections. Whilst he spent most of his playing career at Colomiers, he also travelled a lot. As a player he played the Currie Cup in South Africa. As a coach he also worked with the Pumas in Argentina.

This team will surely play with speed. Just look at the three Outside Halves, Ntamack, Carbonel and Matthieu Jalibert (who at 21 is the oldest). They are all young, full of talent and above all, pure attackers.

In three-quarters there may be a lack of power, apart from Virimi Vakatawa, so France will have to set up a game based on speed and support, which we had already seen first sight of in the World Cup quarter-final against Wales.

Galthié will be able to count on players with exceptional speed qualities in the case of Woki and especially Sekou Macalou and players like Demba Bamba and Camille Chat are strong and powerful, 

For Galthié and France, the hardest part will be finding cohesion. 

The new coach has already explained that he has an idea of what he would like to have for a first match sheet.

The choice of the stand-off will perhaps be the most interesting. France have struggled to install a reliable playmaker in recent years, although Antoine Dupont and Romain Ntamack started to do so in Japan. The arrivals of Jalibert and Carbonel could change the situation.

The opening fixture at home against England is an opportunity and a formidable challenge. Finding the right mix to keep an aggressive England team at bay in the opening quarter will be critical if France are to compete. It’s likely too early for this squad – so expect a home defeat. I see home wins against Italy and Ireland and a potential win away in Scotland. Wales in Cardiff may also be a bridge too far.

Make no mistake – I think France will be one of the dark horses in this years’ competition and a likely 3^rd place finish.Prediction: 3rd 

IRELAND 

Ireland were the most disappointing team of 2019. In 2018, they beat New Zealand for the second time and were worthy comprehensive Grand Slam winners. It all fell away to disappointment as the year progressed.

Ireland were bullied at home by England and out thought and out played by Wales in last years’ competition. Johnny Sexton and Conor Murray both looked jaded and had a tournament to forget and Ireland’s poor form continued to the World Cup where their loss to Japan and a miserable quarter final continued their World Cup failure and pain for another four years.

Head Coach Joe Schmidt has gone to be replaced by Andy Farrell in a long planned succession plan. Farrell has taken on a huge job in trying to take Ireland to the next stage in a World Cup, something that his predecessor Joe Schmidt couldn't do despite being touted as the greatest head coach in Irish history.

What direction should he go with this squad? Should he hand starting places to inexperienced players or does he need to be more tactful with the transition?

The one thing Farrell doesn’t want to do is make too many changes at once and damage the reputation that Ireland has earned in the competition over the last number of years, while simultaneously making sure that he doesn’t damage the confidence of his players by setting them up for a fall.

There has to be a blend of experience and change to freshen things up and bring a different threat. Make no mistake though, experience will be key. I expect a “steady as she goes” approach in his first year with little change to the game plan and tactics. Andy Farrell appears to hail from the ‘if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it’ school of thought judging how he has set out his stall following his promotion from assistant coach. 

Ireland have named five uncapped players in their squad for this year's Guinness Six Nations.  Ulster’s Billy Burns and Tom O’Toole, and the Leinster trio of Max Deegan, Caelan Doris and Ronan Kelleher are the new players to feature in the panel.

The big surprise is the inclusion of 21-year-old Tom O’Toole in the main squad. He hasn’t started in all that many league games with Ulster and has yet to do so in Europe, yet he has jumped the queue ahead of provincial colleague Moore and Munster’s John Ryan, who was at the recent World Cup.  

Although Drogheda-born, he appears to be a pet project of high-performance boss David Nucifora as he grew up in Brisbane and came to the IRFU’s attention after making the Queensland Reds development and Queensland schoolboys sides in 2015. How the novice settles in at Test level will be intriguing.

Overall, Farrell has to trust in fresh talent and not repeat the slapdash situation that was the inexperienced Jack Carty being handed a first competitive Test start at the recent World Cup after a four-year cycle to prepare.

Joey Carberry and Quinn Roux have the disappointment of both is ruled out for the entire tournament with injury.

Others like Stuart McCloskey will be badly ego bruised at getting cut loose. You would have particularly felt McCloskey was someone who could really benefit from being under Farrell’s wing, given the coach used to play that midfield role himself as a Test player.

Other frustrated souls will be Jean Kleyn, Schmidt’s controversial World Cup inclusion at the expense of the shabbily treated but now recalled Devin Toner, and Niall Scannell, the hooker who had been back-up to the now-retired Rory Best throughout 2019, featuring in nine of the 14 matches. 

Caolin Blade, Jamison Gibson-Park, Mike Haley, Rory Scannell and Marty Moore are the others to disappear off the radar, but Farrell’s selection encouragingly acknowledged the recent form of two inclusions from outside the loop, Jack McGrath and Jack O’Donoghue. 

Their elevation is promising in the sense that Ireland could do with a dose of fluidity to help keep players on their toes and make them aware they cannot take anything for granted. It is an attitude badly needed after the desultory stale way 2019 panned out.

Leinster and Ulster have been dominant in the Pro 14 and strong contenders for the European Champions Cup so its no surprise to see them form the backbone of the squad. 

Johnny Sexton has been confirmed as captain after taking on the leadership role to become Ireland’s 106th captain during the World cup. A big issue for Sexton to handle – aside from being far too injury prone and too old with the 2023 World Cup in mind – is his communication with the referees. 

Ireland’s No10 often been involved in testy exchanges with officials so how he copes now that he is the skipper will be closely scrutinised. Ex-captain Rory Best had a certain charm in the way he went about talking to referees and it is something Sexton needs to take on board. All of this risk could have been avoided altogether if Farrell had gone  for a bold long-term statement band appointed the Paul O’Connell-like James Ryan as captain. 

Ireland face a nervous wait on the fitness of Jordan Larmour, after the Leinster full-back suffered a foot injury in the province’s Heineken Champions Cup defeat of Benetton on 

Saturday. Larmour was replaced by Rob Kearney after 71 minutes of the 18-0 win, and although he did not appear to show any signs of injury at the time, the province have now confirmed that the 22-year-old picked up a low grade foot injury.

Larmour, who has won 21 caps since making his Test debut in the 2018 Six Nations, is believed to be Farrell’s preferred choice for the No15 shirt, with the new Ireland head coach not including veteran full-back Rob Kearney in his Six Nations squad. Larmour less than two weeks to recover from the problem and prove his fitness

There is also some concern surrounding Ulster’s Will Addison, who would be one of Larmour’s main rivals for the full-back slot. Addison was substituted in the second half of Ulster’s win against Bath after feeling some tightness in his calf.

These injury worries led to a squad change with Ulster centre Stuart McCloskey being called up this week. He had included Garry Ringrose, Bundee Aki, Chris Farrell and Robbie Henshaw among the primary options to fill the two centre roles. But Farrell has now made the decision to draft in McCloskey, citing "small niggles" to the backs in the original selection.

McCloskey has three Ireland caps to date, having made his senior debut in 2016. He has been in good form for Ulster this season, scoring two tries.

A lot of road must be travelled before the new Ireland coach genuinely gets away from that lingering World Cup disappointment.  That process starts with the need for him to bag back-to-back home wins next month versus Scotland and Wales.

Farrell’s selection will be critical… namely, who is best placed to take over from Rory Best, what can be done to energise the tame back row, does Conor Murray deserve to hold on at No9 against John Cooney – who is the European form scrum half?

I see Ireland papering over the cracks with an easy win over Scotland on the first weekend. Wales represent far more of a test and I am not convinced that Ireland will have the answers. Away trips to England and France both look challenging – so I only see two wins with Italy being the other home game win. 

Prediction: 4^th

SCOTLAND

Scotland had a simply dreadful World Cup. After the high point of almost catching England napping in the Calcutta Cup, it was defeats against Ireland and Japan which led to Scotland’s early exit and put coach Gregor Townsend’s own future in the spotlight. 

Townsend found his own position under scrutiny after his side failed to make the quarter-finals and he admits improvements are required in the championship,

Scotland blew it several years ago in my view, by not renewing Vern Cotter’s contract and choosing Townsend as his replacement. Since his appointment in May 2017, Scotland have more often than not totally flattered to deceive. His 55% win ratio looks okay until you analyse it. No wins over Wales or Ireland with a losing margin of 102 points in those 6 matches is far from impressive.

Townsend has named a 38-man squad for the 2020 Guinness Six Nations that will be skippered by Stuart Hogg. Gregor Townsend has backed Stuart Hogg to shoulder the responsibility of captaining Scotland – after admitting the honour was too much for Stuart McInally.

The Edinburgh hooker led the team out at the World Cup in Japan after being picked ahead of former skippers Greig Laidlaw and John Barclay but struggled under the weight of the role. So much so, he was even dropped for the final pool match against the hosts as the Scots went on to suffer a humiliating early exit.

Townsend admitted that the extra duties involved in skippering the team took their toll on McInally. However, the head coach has been encouraged by the enthusiasm Exeter star Hogg has shown since first being offered the top job.

With Barclay and Laidlaw now retired form international action, the 71-cap full-back with two British and Irish Lions tours under his belt is the most experienced member of the 38-man squad Townsend has named for this year’s championship. The two-time championship player of the tournament (2016 and 2017) and British and Irish Lion is the most experienced player in the group selected by Townsend, starting 71 of his 72 caps to date.

The squad includes six uncapped players – four forwards and two backs: Glasgow Warriors trio Tom Gordon (back row), Kyle Steyn (wing/centre) and Ratu Tagive (wing) are joined by Edinburgh back row pair Luke Crosbie and Nick Haining, with Gloucester’s former Scotland under-20s lock, Alex Craig, completing the group.

The squad also features the return of Edinburgh pair Matt Scott (centre) and Rory Sutherland (prop) – who last featured for Scotland in victories on the road over Australia (2017) and Japan (2016) respectively – as well as Worcester Warriors back row Cornell du Preez, who earned his most recent of six caps against Wales in 2018.

Duncan Taylor, Ryan Wilson and Pete Horne are the notable absentees while Richie Gray, Blade Thompson, Sam Skinner and Matt Fagerson miss out through injury.

I don’t see any renaissance for Scotland and a solitary win over Italy will be their only success.

Prediction 5th

ITALY

Another new Coach facing his first Six Nations is new Italy coach Franco Smith. Former Springbok Smith, was appointed as interim head coach for the 2020 Guinness Six Nations. Smith replaces former Harlequins head coach Conor O’Shea who resigned recently after three years in the role overseeing three successive Six Nations’ losing whitewashes during his time in charge. 

Former fly-half or centre Smith, who made nine appearances for the Springboks between 1996 and 1999, has previous experience in Italy, having played at Treviso for three years before taking over as head coach at the club for a further six years.

The 47-year-old will be supported by forwards coach Giampiero De Carli, defence coach Marius Goosen and fitness coaches Pete Atkinson and Giovanni Sanguin for the Six Nations campaign 

Smith controversially has left out Italy legend Sergio Parisse out of his initial tournament squad. Parisse was not named in Italy head coach Franco Smith’s Six Nations squad, although it is thought he will be called up later in the competition. Earlier this month, he outlined his desire to end his international career in front of a home Italian crowd during the latter part of the Six Nations. Parisse made his debut in a 64-10 defeat by the All Blacks as an 18-year-old in June 2002. Only New Zealand's Richie McCaw and Wales' Alun Wyn Jones have won more Test caps.

His club career included a 14-year stint with Stade Francais before he moved to current side Toulon.

Luca Bigi will succeed Sergio Parisse as Italy captain and lead the Azzurri in this season’s Guinness Six Nations Championship. Bigi, who has won 24 caps, made his Test debut against Scotland in 2017 and started three of Italy’s World Cup games in Japan earlier this season.

The 28-year-old Zebre hooker will lead the team for the first time in Italy’s tournament opener against Wales in Cardiff on February 1, meanwhile Parisse is set to retire from international rugby later this year.

Alberto Sgarbi could be in line for a first cap in six years after being named in a 35-man Italy squad for the 2020 Guinness Six Nations. The experienced Benetton centre last appeared for Italy on a summer tour to Fiji back in 2014 but has been rewarded for his efforts with a recall having captained the franchise in their recent rise.

Elsewhere Franco Smith has brought in three new faces, Zebre prop Danilo Fischetti who was called into the squad for the World Cup but did not play due to Typhoon Hagibis, Benetton lock Niccolò Cannone and Zebre full-back Michelangelo Biondelli.

Given three consecutive whitewashes – any win will do for Italy. Its hard to see any real breakthroughs and another whitewash and wooden spoon looks to be heading back to Rome.

Prediction: 6th (Wooden Spoon)