SIX NATIONS PREVIEW 2016 – WILL THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE FIGHT BACK?
As we approach the one-week to go countdown, the 2016 Six Nations tournament is poised to be a significant one. Just a few months ago, we had the massive disappointment of not one Northern Hemisphere team making the semi-finals of the World Cup. This was a shattering blow to European rugby and it will be critical that this years tournament shows a rise in standards as well as being as highly competitive as usual.
It’s going to a very interesting competition. We have new coaches at the helm of France and England. The retirements of many Six Nations stalwarts have weakened many teams and left them with significant rebuilding for the future and all teams with a point to prove. Will the Northern Hemisphere fight back? The rise of Argentina and Japan has not gone unnoticed and with a Lions tour just 18 months away, the tournament gives many younger players the opportunity to grow an impress on the international stage.
As usual, I have spent a long time this winter watching and analysing players and coaching performances. The European Champions Cup has shown that the power (and money) is with the French and English clubs and fact that for the first time no team form the Pro 12 has made the quarter finals is almost as significant for Wales, Ireland, Scotland, and Italy as their exits from the World Cup from both the summer tours and autumn internationals. Its clear the Celtic fringe needs to show some form in this competition or the talent drain to the call of English schilling and French franc will further depress rugby competitions and talent development for the future.
Let’s review the teams and their likely prospects in the Tournament ahead:
IRELAND
A dreadful World Cup on the back of a double title winning Six Nations has taken the shine and lustre off Joe Schmidt’s record and slowed (at least temporarily) his rise up the list of candidates for the Future All Blacks coaching job. There is talk of a crisis in Irish Rugby with the provincial teams struggling and players being coaxed away from the emerald isle. Confidence remains low after being run rugged by a talented Argentina team on a sobering Sunday afternoon at the Millennium Stadium.
So what went wrong?
The strength in depth was tested and the newcomers were found wanting. Gone is captain Paul O'Connell to the happy place that is international retirement and the land of hilk and money in the Top 14. He is a massive loss to Ireland and it will be interesting to see who emerge as the real leaders are in the Irish team. Rory Best, the Ulster hooker has one of the biggest boots to fill in World rugby having taken over the Irish captaincy but he is Ireland’s most experienced player and will win his 90th cap when he leads his nation out against Wales in Dublin on February 7.
Recent club form has been poor in both the Pro 12 and the European Cup and it is a shock to the Irish system that no team has made it out of the group stages for the first time. There is more woe with the news that Marty Moore and Keith Earls are heading to England next season at Wasps and Saracens, whilst Ian Madigan is heading to Bordeaux-Begles and Limerick flyer Simon Zebo also being linked with a move to France.
Injuries are once again taking their toll and the loss of Peter O’Mahony, Marty Moore, Mike Ross, Cian Healy, and probably most disappointedly their best young forward Iain Henderson has severely weakened the Irish pack strength at least for the first few games. Their prime predator in the backs, Tommy Bowe, will also be absent for the whole campaign, with first-choice centres Robbie Henshaw and Jared Payne having only just returned from lengthy lay-offs.
And of course there’s concern and doubt over key playmaker Johnny Sexton, with the fly-half - who has had such concussive issues in the past - having taken another blow to the head at the weekend. Ian Madigan is nowhere near the talent of Sexton and he lacks the key spark in game management. If Sexton is absent for any games, then I fear Ireland could have some real difficulties.
In my opinion, the loss of natural born leader Peter O'Mahony is probably the biggest blow of all.
But despite all this, Joe Schmidt is no mug and Ireland will still have a competitive, well coached team and passionate support which will make them remain formidable opponents for any team and hard to beat at home.
Ulster's powerhouse centre Stuart McCloskey and Gerry Rigrose are powerful additions to the Irish squad and look real future superstars. Kearney remains a reliable full back and Trimble and Earls are powerful finishers so Ireland will still have the ability to test any team and give them an inch and you could easily let a game slip away.
The fixture list has also not been kind to them. Ireland starts with a tough home game against Wales followed by a tricky away trip to Paris after a six-day turnaround. Then more toil with England away before final home fixtures against Italy and Scotland.
The Wales game is probably the most significant. Lose than and I can see away losses in both France and England before two narrow home victories. Beat Wales and then France looks winnable. Twickenham will be too hard so at best 4 wins and at worst 2 wins. I think Wales will triumph in Dublin – so no three peat as champions.
Final Position: 5th
ENGLAND
RWC15 - What can you say? A home World Cup, the Red Rose with a tough qualifying group but the easiest passage to the final and a final against the All Blacks with whom England have an impressive record. A repeat of 2003 with a World Cup win or at worse 2007 with a second place finish.
Err no! Unfortunately the script didn’t quite follow through that way.
England were lamentable in the World Cup and look poorly coached, lacking fitness, with poor selections and game planning. A dreadful decision against Wales cost them a draw and likely progression whilst they totally outclassed against Australia and an early exit and finance pain for the RFU. Stuart Lancaster paid the price for his strange selections with his job. The obsession with playing Sam Burgess, at Centre, didn’t work, the dropping George Ford and odd substitutions just added to the confusion. . You wouldn’t believe it could happen to England until it did. The biggest challenge facing him was he didn’t seem to know his best team.
So on to a new era and Australia coaching legend Eddie Jones arrives fresh from Japan via South Africa and Yo Sushi. An interesting training squad with several major omissions, a new captain and a bold selection for the away trip to Edinburgh with three new caps in the starting squad.
I think Jones will have a good tournament. Despite the dreadful World Cup – England have a formidable pack and lots of running talent in the backs. Many of his star players are coming right back into form and Dylan Hartley is a formidable captain despite his past record of misdemeanours. Hartley has been subject to quite dreadful coverage in the press. I believe he could be Eddie Jones trump card and no team will relish facing a wounded England with captain Hartley at the helm. .
Saracens outside-half Owen Farrell has been outstanding since the World Cup in his club’s remarkable run of victories and should be in the England starting side to face Scotland, whether it be it at outside-half or inside-centre.
The new squad additions are very exciting. Josh Beaumont, son of former captain Bill, was one of seven uncapped players included in Eddie Jones's first England squad. Sale's Beaumont is a powerful number eight in the mould of his father, one of England's most iconic players who led them to the grand slam in 1980 and captained the British and Irish Lions the same year.
Flanker Jack Clifford, who has taken over as openside flanker at Harlequins from England's World Cup captain Chris Robshaw, is also included, as is Robshaw, who is now playing on the blindside.
Wasps exciting centre Elliot Daly is included and has a chance to press for a team slot in the absence of injured Henry Slade, while Sam Hill, and Maro Itoje are also included with Northampton Prop Paul Hill, and Bath back Ollie Devoto look likely to join Clifford and make their debuts in England's Six Nations opener next weekend hoping for a first cap.
Of the discarded players – you have to feel for Luther Burrell. He has been treated quite abysmally by England. The one other remaining player not to make the initial squad and raise eyebrows with Rugby Raconteur was Danny Cipriani. I watched Cipriani in several games this season and he is an amazing talent with great vision and game control. I think all the other coaches breathed a sigh of relief at his exclusion as make no mistake he is a game changer.
England has the strength in depth to be competitive and win matches with a modest change to their playing style. The question is can they start with a win in Edinburgh? Murrayfield has been a graveyard for many England hopes and Scotland’s improved performances at the World Cup will give Jones new look team a major challenge of an opener.
England follow up the Scotland trip with another away trip and easy victory in Rome followed by Ireland and Wales at home before finishing in Paris. I think England will grow with maturity and will be close to being title winners.
Final Position: 2nd
WALES
Wales can look back at the World Cup with some pride and it was phenomenal to watch a team with a back division made up of two scrum halves, two outside halves, a winger playing centre go on to close out a victory at the hallowed turf of Hq. But ultimately the final outcome was a disappointment and I can’t help but feel a sense of underachievement. The horrendous injury crisis that impacted the Dragons finally was too much and after a Rourke's Drift win over England, they failed to take their chances against a 13 man Australia team and 2 minutes of madness cost them victory over South Africa. Report card says – great effort but could do better.
Warren Gatland and his coaching team have fresh contracts and will look to build onwards with a Six Nations title in 2016. They have the most experienced squad in terms of caps and also Six Nations games and after blooding many new players over the past few seasons only one new cap – Scarlets scrum half Aled Davies is named in the training squad.
Injuries have still robbed Wales of the talismanic Leigh Halfpenny whilst Scott Williams, Dan Lydiard and Rhys Webb are also still missing whilst Captain Sam Warburton, Jonathan Davies, Liam Williams, Hallam Amos and Gareth Anscombe are just returning and all short of match fitness.
Dan Biggar was arguably the best Northern Hemisphere player in the World Cup and his form has continued at club level. I am pleased to see Gatland recall Cardiff Blues pair Tom James and Josh Turnbull.
Tom James has been on fire at the Blues and it is really good to see him return to the squad. The Rhymney flyer has always had a tempestuous relationship with Gatland and has publically commented when dropped from squads or been left on the bench. Several seasons away at Exeter under the watchful eye of master coach Rob Baxter have transformed his appetite for the game and I fully expect him to start against Ireland.
Josh Turnbull has also impressed at club level and with Lydiard out for the start of the competition, he remains a useful option off the bench being able to play at Flanker or No.8.
Justin Tipuric should and will likely partner Warburton and Faletau in the Welsh back row and I think Gareth Anscombe and Liam Williams will fight it out at Full Back. Anscombe has looked very sharp in his two games for the Blues and Liam Williams is real talent but I’m not sure I would risk his fitness in the first match.
In the forwards, Gethin Jenkins looks to be probably playing in his last Six Nations and will want to go out on a high. Samson Lee is back fit with young Tomos Francis continuing as his understudy. A steady powerhouse with the wonderful Alun Wyn-Jones and either Luke Charteris or Bradley Davies will give the welsh pack a solid shape.
Wales look stable and strong. Their defence and fitness is unrivalled in World rugby but critics of “Warrenball” rightly point out that it can be predictable and easy to defend against in attack. Gatland has revealed that he has some new tactics and attack formations and the key to Wales success will be scoring tries. Biggar will kick the goals and keep the scoreboard ticking over.
Wales look like tournament favourites and the key to their success will be winning the first game in Dublin. They follow with the test of a much improved Scotland and France at home before England away and Italy at home to finish. The schedule is reasonable and Wales tend to improve through the tournament. Twickenham will hold no fears but probably will be the tournament decider. Win there and another grand slam beckons, lose and the title still looks within their grasp. Too good to fail? We shall see but my crystal ball tells me Sam Warburton will picking up that trophy at the end of competition.
Final Position: 1st - CHAMPIONS
SCOTLAND
Scotland are the one team who can look back at World cup with some form of satisfaction at their progress in the competition. Its been a long journey from the Wooden Spoon in last season's Six Nations but were two minutes away from beating Australia in their World Cup quarter-final and are in a positive frame of mind. The cruelty of that narrow loss to Australia robbed them of a deserved semi final place.
Look beyond that game and Scotland were a lot less convincing in the group games but still showed steady progress and development from the horror show of last year’s tournament. However, given the talent pool they draw from is pretty limited coach Vern Cotter has done a very good job of instilling a sense of confidence that they can compete with anyone and he is starting to build a winning mentality with his squad.
The key player in my eye is young Finn Russell. Scotland coach Vern Cotter can help to have been impressed with his performance during Glasgow’s recent 22-5 victory over Racing 92 He will take the satisfaction that his outside-half general Russell was back to something like his old self.
He scored 11 points in that match with the boot with three penalties and a conversion of Stuart Hogg’s try and he was clearly bossing play and generally playing with his customary composure that hasn’t always been evident this season
Stuart Hogg has also been in great form and the bold new Scottish squad features two uncapped players with young props Zander Fagerson and Rory Sutherland. Fagerson has been quite astonishing for a 20 year old prop and looks like a future rock for the Scottish scrum.
The Gray brothers remain likely to pair up in the 2nd row whilst back row options are boosted with the form of Bath's Dave Denton and there is good competition with Glasgow's Chris Fusaro and Josh Strauss, Blair Cowan and the return to the squad of the excellent John Barclay.
Injuries are like many teams; weakening the Scottish firepower in the backs with Centre Alex Dunbar ruled out of the opening two games of the Six Nations.
Dunbar has suffered a posterior thigh strain during Glasgow's European Champions Cup win over Racing 92 and will be out "for the coming weeks". This is a big blow as Dunbar was a likely starter against England if fit. It is the latest setback to affect his Test career, after rupturing knee ligaments in training before last year's Calcutta Cup match and missing the World Cup last autumn as a result.
His Glasgow team-mate Mark Bennett is another injury concern, with Scotland coach Vern Cotter rating the outside centre's chances as no better than 50-50 as he recovers from a shoulder problem.
With Dunbar ruled out, Edinburgh's Matt Scott is likely to start at inside centre in the Calcutta Cup with Saracens' Duncan Taylor in contention to join him in midfield.
Scotland has nothing to lose and I believe they will rise to the challenge this season. Murrayfield can still instil fear into any England team and this year, I think Scotland will triumph against the ‘Auld Enemy”.
A win in that first match will set Scotland up for the tricky away visit to Cardiff. Scotland have run Wales very close in many games in Cardiff and this game remains a potential banana skin for Gatland. Then the nightmare journey to Rome against their nemesis Italy followed by France at home and finishing with Ireland away in Dublin. A good season to build on – three wins.
Final Position: 4th
FRANCE
Experienced Toulouse coach Guy Noves is the latest to take over the poisoned chalice of rebuilding French rugby. France have been deeply disappointing in the past two Six nations and their World Cup was little better with rumours of squad discontent off the field and little to inspire on it.
Noves has already laid out his stall with a promise of new attacking rugby, the omission of Mathieu Bastareaud, and an interesting 31 man training squad. I have never been a fan of the battering ram approach and I am delighted to see Bastareaud out as to me he is the antithesis of everything that made French rugby great.
Despite several high profile retirements – most notably Captain Thierry Dusautoir and and hooker Dimitri Szarzewski; Noves will be looking to build on a solid forward pack and he the talent in the backs to build a creative force for the future.
I like the look of Jonathan Danty - a no-nonsense centre who has already played more than 50 times for Stade Francais and impressed against Leicester as he helped set up one of the tries. I have also been impressed with the call up of Marvin O'Connor. The Montpellier flyer replaces club colleague Benjamin Fall, who was injured playing in the European Challenge Cup against Harlequins last Friday.
O'Connor, capped at Under-20 level, could link up with former France Sevens team-mate Virimi Vakatawa, who was also included by new Les Bleus coach Guy Noves in his original squad.
Scott Spedding impressed me last year at full back and Wesley Fofana always is an attacking threat that hopefully will see anew lease of life with the new coaching team.
Jean-Marc Doussain and Jules Plisson are the two outside halves in the squad as Francois Trinh-Duc is currently injured but hopeful of joining the squad later in the competition. Maxime Machenaud and Morgan Parra are the two scrum-halves.
Machenaud has been a driving force behind the Parisians’ European campaign and he will battle it out with Morgan Parra who had a miserable weekend after taking a late quick tap penalty for Clermont when only a kick was needed against Bordeaux-Begles for them to secure quarter-final qualification. It has been announced that Parra will miss the season opener against Italy and uncapped Bordeaux-Begles scrum-half Baptiste Serin has joined the squad as cover.
In the pack, the giant Uini Atonio and Eddy Ben Arous will form a solid front row. There is a powerful looking pack with a mix of old and new faces but the unanswered question will be what is the fitness of the team? French clubs and coaches do not have the obsession with fitness that for example, Welsh caches Gatland and Edwards have; and many French teams have seemed to tire and run out of steam in the latter stages of matches.
I am optimistic for the new look France and they will open with a comfortable win in Paris over the untried Italian team. They follow with another home game against Ireland that will be the first real test of the new squad’s ability to compete. I think they will have two wins before difficult away trips to Wales and Scotland before finishing with England.in Paris. Still 3 wins at least and maybe more.
Final Position: 3rd
ITALY
Italy had a good Six Nations in 2015 with their first ever away victory. A tough World Cup draw teamed with Ireland and France was always going to be challenging and other than the game against Ireland, I They were poor in the World Cup and I don’t foresee a positive turnaround in fortunes for them as Coach Jacques Brunel’s swansong
Its hard to be optimistic about Italian prospects this tournament. You just cannot be inspired seeing the lumbering and immobile Kelly Haimona recalled to Italy's injury-hit squad that includes a vast 10 uncapped additions.
The legendary long-serving number eight Sergio Parisse continues as captain, but Italy are missing 10 frontline stars ahead of their Six Nations opener against France in Paris on 6 February.
Zebre team-mates Carlo Canna and the uncapped Edoardo Padovani will contest the fly-half berth, with Haimona likely to be deployed in the centres. Italy will also be boosted by the presence of fit-again trio of lock George Biagi and centre Giulio Bisegni. New fly-half Padovani heads a lengthy cast list of rookie additions for Italy, with front-rowers Andrea Lovotti, Matteo Zanusso and Ornel Gega joined by back-row forwards Jacopo Sarto, Abraham Steyn and Andries van Schalkwyk. Three-quarters Mattia Bellini, Tommaso Castello and David Odiete complete Italy's untested recruits, as Brunel battles a hefty casualty list.
Playmaker Tommaso Allan, tight-five duo Josh Furno and Quintin Geldenhuys and Leicester front-rower Michele Rizzo have all been ruled out of Italy's early Six Nations action.
Italy start in Paris and that will really give us a really good viewpoint on their tournament prospects. France will want to impress their new coach so despite Italy’s good recent record against Les Bleus – I don't see them getting a result. They follow that with home games against England and Scotland and finish with two away trips to Dublin and Cardiff.
I don’t see any joy for such an inexperienced squad. No wins – wooden spoon.
Final Position: 6th
