Final Thoughts - Six Nations 2013

The Tournament ended with Wales confounding all the critics to record back to back championship titles. Few would have seen that outcome after the torrid first 50 minutes of the Wales v Ireland opener which shows the unpredictability of this tournament and why we love it so much. After a slow start, your humble correspondent ended up with 10 correct predictions out of 15 - matching last year's 67% accuracy rate. Let's look back some of the highlights of the competition and some final thoughts and considerations as we await the British Lions this summer.

Never Write Off The Welsh!

I have to admit I am one of those who really didn't see Wales recovering after a dismal Autumn. They were simply caught asleep against Ireland and looked dishevelled and lacking even basic confidence. They came alive in the 2nd half of that match and simply drove on from that point becoming stronger with every game. The final match in Cardiff had the most amazing atmosphere - probably the best I've ever experienced. A tight first half was followed by the clinical demolition of England. Clearly the finest half of Welsh rugby for 40 years.  When you look at the stats - they were devastating in defence. No tries conceded in 4 matches is a massive endorsement of their defensive prowess. Currently the meanest in World rugby.

Wales were simply breathtaking in that last match. They dominated in every facet of the game and in Warburton and Tipuric they undoubtedly have forwards of huge talent. The return of Roberts to some form and the fast improvement of Cuthbert give Wales an awesome attacking edge too. Perhaps not the dashing flair of old but a new tough edged resilience  Leigh Halfpenny put in several fantastic performances and his work under the high ball was textbook perfect. He proves again that small men can still be influential in modern  game of giant threequarters and his kicking was (mostly) of metronomic accuracy.

We have been before and the onus is on the Welsh squad to kick on and become able to take their place at rugby's top table. Beating England must become an expected outcome not the only outcome in the mind of their fans and players. They after all just another team. What must follow now are regular wins over Southern Hemisphere sides. Can they learn and progress?  Wales will probably learn most from this summer's Lions tour with Welsh players undoubtedly forming the bulk of the lions squad.The next 12 months will be crucial.

As for the coaches, I was one who was heavily critical of their approach and preparation in the Autumn and for the opening game against Ireland. Robert Howley had to face a barrage of personal criticism and rose above it in triumph  Shaun Edwards is another who can hold his head up high after the bitter disappointment of missing out on the Lions tour. Deserved well done to all!

Bridemaids

As for England - they too will learn hard lessons from the game in Cardiff. England seemed to get worse through the Tournament - it was strange seeing a team winning matches but not scoring tries. After good wins over Scotland and Ireland  England had a wobble against France, that horror show against Italy was followed by a nightmare in Cardiff. What went wrong?

It is hard to find the answers. It isn't the coaching. Stuart Lancaster is a master tactician and he has a really strong back room with Catt, Rowntree and Farrell. If anything - I think England are probably over coached. they seem to lack the individual skills and brilliance of other sides.

Martin Johnson was a great believer in the 'game plan" and followed in a long tradition of England coaches who put perhaps too much thought into the game at the cost of not developing in individual skills and game awareness.   As several people said to me on Saturday - there was perhaps only one player on Saturday's performance who would have got in the Welsh side.  Compare the stuttering Chris Ashton against either North or Cuthbert. Youngs against Philips. Barritt against Roberts and you see what they mean. Twelvetrees is probably the only England threequarter who has sign of arrogant talent and guess what - he hasn't been picked. England choosing the boring Barritt ahead of him probably because he fits better into the "plan". Jack Rowell was the first of the modern coaches who lost the dressing room because they could not understand their coach. He was too intellectual. I think England are perhaps trying too hard.

Several players have had a marked drop in form. Parling and Launchbury were scarily good against New Zealand but badly dropped off the pace. Dan Cole has gone backwards and England have struggled for a solid front row platform. They have a young squad and they have the time to develop and grow into a great team but not yet. If they focus on their strengths, develop just a few raw talents World Cup 2015 looks a long way off but England will aim to peak and could have the last laugh picking up the Webb Ellis in 2 years. You read it here first....

Celtic Fringe

Scotland can take heart from a  campaign with two victories but little champagne sparkle. They put in a dogged shift against the Auld Enemy, blew away Italy, ground down Ireland and caused a few concerns against both Wales and France. In Hogg, Maitland and Visser - they have a back three of real quality but are let down by the Fly Half/Centre options available. They simply don't have the talent in the backs to compete at the highest level. Add a determined pack and a great goalkicker (Laidlaw) and Scotland can frighten anyone especially when they are written off. Kelly Brown has led with great effectiveness and heart and Scott Johnson has carried on where Robinson left off in developing a winning mindset and wins at home are certainly solid progress. Next season maintain some stability and away victories will be critical for them to progress.  A work in progress.

For Ireland - this looks like the end of an era. I think they felt they were on for another Grand Slam after effectively killing Wales for 50 minutes. They simply went backwards. Injuries showed that they don't have any real strength in depth. How can they get 3 teams to the Heineken Cup quarter finals when Wales had none and yet have such a bare cupboard bereft of real prospects? Healy and Ross were second best to most front rows. Heaslip and O'Brien should have been certainties on the plane for the Lions with Heaslip a likely test starter. But not after the tournament when both players will be lucky to make the squad - such is their fall from grace. They never dominated any team through their pack and look like a nation in decline. The fiasco of their coaching set up where Declan Kidney blundered this way through with no new contract on offer was bizarre and clearly unsettling for Irish morale.

With O'Driscoll likely to retire, he will be quickly followed by O'Connell , O'Gara, and D'Arcy. All big men to replace! Ireland always take too long to bring players through but it is even more noticeable that all Irish provinces have increased the numbers of foreign imports - such is their addiction to European success at club level. It will be a tough 24 months as an Ireland supporter. They need a new coach and challenge fast.

Viva Italia!

For me, the Six Nations finally became a tournament of Six Nations. Italy finally arrived. They now have two competitive club sides gaining more experience weekly in Rabo Direct and Heineken Cup. They have a great coach who is making a real difference and getting the Italians to believe they can compete and win.

They have now beaten every nation except England and they came mighty close to the upset to end all upsets at Twickenham. No longer just a forward dominated team either. Parisse and Zanni have been causing problems for a while - Parisse - the outright World best at No.8. Add two workman like players at half backs and unleash some great backs like McLean and Italy have truly arrived. Next season will be tougher with just two home fixtures but neither England or Scotland will relish the Stadio Olympico journey and Italy could even surprise away next season. Viva Italia - welcome to the top table.

Allez les Losers...

If Italy have arrived then what of France? They were simply shockingly bad. Selections simply beggared belief and several players looked uninterested and uncertain of what they were doing. France had a weak defence last season and it simply went from bad to worse. They made changes for England but just when they were competitive they made criminal substitutions bringing on inferior players and losing the plot totally.

I hope to never see Freddie Michalak on an international rugby field again. France have only one Outside Half - Trinh-Duc; and he is not World class. France have a fantastic domestic rugby competition but rather like English Football's Premier league - it is at the expense of developing their own players.  Only 4 of the 14 clubs have a french qualified outside half and there has been a increasing import of Georgian props, Welsh and English internationals, and Southern Hemisphere mercenaries. One has to fear for the future pour Les Bleus!

British Lions Test XV & Squad

With a short while until the Lions squad is chosen, I have picked my side based on current Six Nations form. It doesn't make pretty reading for English, Irish and Scots rugby fans:

15 - Leigh Halfpenny (Wales) - saw off challenge from Hogg and Goode who will also make the 37 man squad

14 - Alex Cuthbert (Wales) - not a certain choice especially at the Start of the tournament but a fantastic performance against England secures his place.

13 - Brian O'Driscoll (Ireland) - Australia will be fast, hard pitches and it will be a fitting end for one the World's all time greats.

12 - Jamie Roberts (Wales) - formed a terrific understanding with BoD last Lions and gets his place with a late flurry in last two matches

11 - George North (Wales) - under pressure from Zebo and Visser - just gets the nod

10 - Owen Farrell (England) - the best talent at 10. Biggar and Sexton also making the squad.

9 - Mike Philips (Wales) - not my type of scrum half but likely to be Gatland's. Conor Murray and Greg Laidlaw his back ups. No English Scrum half making the squad.

1 - Gethin Jenkins (Wales) - back at his brilliant best against Italy and England. Cian Healy and Ryan Grant the understudies.

2 - Rory Best (Ireland) - The most accurate line out thrower and a certain starter. Hibbard his understudy

3- Adam Jones (Wales) - the world's best tight head scrummager. Dan Cole his understudy

4 - Geoff Parling (England) - still the Guv'nor despite a weak tournament finish.

5 - Ian Evans (Wales) - phenomenal tacking and ball carrying. Richie Grey, Alun Wyn Jones and Donnecha Ryan the other Second Rows

6 - Chris Robshaw (England) - the Lions will need leaders on the field. Will be toughing it out with the Welsh flankers to make the starting line up. Tom Wood also making the trip

7 - Justin Tipuric (Wales)  - not the biggest but the fastest with fabulous passing skills

8 - Sam Warburton (Wales) - CAPTAIN - Sam has come through a tough time but will be selected as Lions Captain and will switch to No.8 to accomodate Tipuric. Faletau will be pushing him too

Squad: - these 15 plus:
11 Backs - Hogg (Scotland), Goode (England), Visser, Maitland (both Scotland), Zebo (Ireland),  Tuigali, (England), Davies,  Biggar (both Wales), Sexton , Murray (both Ireland) Laidlaw (Scotland)

11 Forwards - Healy, Ross (both Ireland), Grant (Scotland), Cole (England), Hibbard (Wales), Hartley (England), Wyn Jones (Wales), Grey (Scotland), Ryan (Ireland), Wood (England), Faletau (Wales)

15 Welsh
8 English
8 Irish
6 Scots

Rugby Raconteur will be back for Lions tour...See you soon!

FINAL WEEKEND – “THERE’S GONNA BE A SHOWDOWN”

Final weekend of an enthralling Six Nations completion. Lots of shocks and surprises along the way in one of the most open competitions in years. The one area where the tournament ahs been let down has been the standard of refereeing and the choice of referees has also been somewhat challenging in my eyes.

I’ll admit my own biases here – Joubert and Clancy are not my favourite refs – far from it. Their performances last week were lamentable at best. Joubert broke all records for giving out a ridiculous number of penalties. Clancy asked his Assistant Nigel Owens to help and then completely ignored him giving England an advantage and stifling a promising Italian attack.

The refereeing of scrummages has been frankly awful and it has made the game a dull spectacle, which will continue to turn people off our wonderful game. The IRB must intervene and fix this and quickly.

So on to the final matches – lets see the how the runners and riders are shaping up:

Italy v Ireland

Fair play to Italy, they rose to the occasion and gave England a terrible fright at HQ last week with the honour of scoring the only try of the match as well. Their whole team showed tremendous heart and Masi and Mclean were both tricky and gave outstanding performances showing up their much more favoured opponents.

The Italians will feel confident going into this final match at home against an Irish side, which seams to have fitness and focus issues. Lo Cicero returns at prop as Castrogiovanni is out with injury but otherwise a largely unchanged team will relay go for it.

Italy have moved beyond being a one-man team based around Parisse to being a much stronger all round team. Parisse remains probably the best No.8 in the World right now but everywhere you look Italy have players of Talent. Zanni and Favaro have both had good tournaments in the back row, Gori and Orquera look firmly established at half backs and a large Italian crowd will cause concerns to even the most partisan St. paddy’s weekend reveler.

If Italy can hold eth Irish scrum and secure their lien out then they can cause problems and they must go on the field believing they can win.

As for Ireland, what has happened? It seems an age ago they ran riot in the first half at Cardiff shocking a half asleep Welsh team and earning a deserved victory. They have struggled and looked weaker as the tournament has progressed. Yes they have suffered with injuries but so have other teams. Ireland look unfit and their second half performances against Wales, Scotland and France have been extremely poor with the Irish just seeming to run out of ideas and stamina. They crumpled last week against a mediocre French side and it is hard to see them raising their game here.

Declan Kidney looks like a man waiting for his call to the gallows. The uncertainty concerning his future has obviously unsettled both coach and team but he has been guilty of some major tactical blunders. Murray was man of the match last week so you have to question why he spent the critical last 15 minutes on the bench. The Irish love a fight and this could be the fight of their lives.

On a positive note, Paddy Jackson had a much stronger more measured performance against France and they will be relieved to have a three-quarter line of any ability after the mass injuries of last week. Conor Murray continues to have a strong tournament putting him right in Lions contention and the Irish game will depend upon a strong scrimmage. Healy and Ross have had mixed performances and their stars have definitely waned over the past weeks. Captain Heaslip is another who needs a big game to secure his place on the plane and a Lions cap.

My head says Ireland have too much quality to lose this one but my heart says Italy. I’m going to stick my neck out and predict a shock win for the Azzuri. Italy by 4 points.

Italy 19 Ireland 15

France v Scotland

Philippe Saint Andre will be looking for a strong finish from his tricolours in the final match of a disastrous competition. They have looked lost for most of the matches and his selections defy simple logic. His misguided support of Michalak really cannot be defended in any way. It simply hasn’t worked. France look under-prepared, over coached, and dis-spirited.

They had a much stronger game in Dublin and really should have beaten Ireland with a bright second half display. Their one shining light has been the excellent Huget who really has struck to it while those around him have drifted into disinterest. Medard and Clerc can still terrorize defenses if they get the ball and the French pack were solid and scrimmaged strongly in Dublin.

Louis Picamoles has still looked world class at times and it will depend a lot on France securing solid forward ball from the set pieces and getting the scoreboard ticking over early in the game. If they do, then the Stadt crowd will get behind them and Scotland could be in for a hammering.

Scotland were frankly dismal against Wales – never really looking like an attacking threat. Laidlaw has been metronomic in his kicking accuracy. I think Scotland made a massive mistake against Wales in dropping the excellent Geoff Cross. They were unsettled by poor refereeing at the scrums and never really recovered. The boring pedantic Scottish play really hasn’t changed much despite bright signs in attack with Hogg and Maitland both emerging with great credit this season.

I believe France will get on top early and will rip Scotland apart. That is probably the worst outcome for the future of French rugby but being Welsh and partisan – long can Saint Andre keep screwing things up. There won’t be many tears in Wales or England to see France get it wrong. France will win by rout.

France 31 Scotland 9

Wales v England

It had to be didn’t it? The two best teams last year have been the two best this year as well. There really isn’t much between the teams and after week one when Wales looked bereft of ideas and confidence that they would still be in with a fighting chance of remaining champions.

Wales must start as clear favourites to both win the match and the title. A mere 7 point gap will be enough for Wales and the Welsh crowd will see this opportunity to put the enemy to the sword and will cheer Wales from start to finish. The WRU have been whipping up a patriotic frenzy all week with their "One Nation" messaging. Will it be enough to see Wales to victory?

I am delighted to see the World’s best referee – Steve Walsh has been chosen for this one. Hopefully we will have the opportunity to see a closed roof and watch an exciting game especially given the weather forecast has heavy rain predicted. The Welsh camp will be pleased with the recovery and the return of confidence to their ranks after a dismal set of results since last year’s championship. They did another workmanlike performance against Scotland but will be concerned about the number of penalties they have conceded, which could be critical tomorrow.

There are intriguing match-ups all the way between the two sides. The winners will form the bulk of the British Lions squad and the destination of the captaincy. The Talismanic Ryan Jones is out but Wales will welcome back Sam Warburton’s return to his very best form against Scotland. Warburton and Tipuric will form an exciting attacking if somewhat lightweight back row with the mis-firing erratic Falatau. Up front – the return of Gethin Jenkins will add considerably to Wales loose forward performances, although his record as captain is not a promising one.  Adam Jones will remain the anchor in the Welsh scrum.

Richard Hibbard had a strong game against Scotland and the return of Alun Wynne Jones alongside the excellent Ian Evans will have to match up strongly to the English, (and likely Lion's) first choice pairing of Parling and Launchbury. Could be a critical area with neither team being dominant in their own line out so far.

Behind the scrum, we have seen flashes from North and Cuthbert while Roberts and Jonathan Davies have not reached any peaks this season. The game could come down to just one try.  Halfpenny was badly awry with his kicking last week and he cannot afford to miss any penalty opportunities. The game will be that tight.

As for England, they were desperately poor against Italy and lost much of their shape. They will not play that badly again and the Millennium Stadium will hold no fear. They will welcome back Owen Farrell after the stuttering inept display by Flood last week.  He really gets England moving and his return will be a welcome fillip to the English confidence.

Mike Brown and Alex Goode have had good tournaments’ but have seen little attacking ball. Barritt has been strong in defence but shows little aptitude in attack and Wales will be glad to see the dangerous Twelvetrees on the bench.

Up front you will expect a close battle in all three areas – front, second row and back row. I am surprised to see Marler back and I fear he will have a torrid time against Adam jones. Dan Cole and Gethin Jenkins are closely matched and refereed properly and consistently the scrums should even up. England having the second row advantage to offset Wales narrow front row advantage. If England attack around the ruck area and get their forward power moving, Wales could be in trouble and concede a bucket load of kickable penalties.

Chris Robshaw is Lions Captain in waiting and I have no doubt regardless of the result he will be announced as the new leader of the Lions. Well deserved for a man who has not been especially highly rated but has proven all his critics wrong.

Outside the scrum, Ben Youngs returns in place of Danny Care. Again, I feel it would not have been my choice. Care offers more maverick uncertainty and would unsettle Wales more. Expect to see him and Twelvetrees both see an outing. Lancaster has shown shrewd judgment in selections with the exception of the Courtney Lawes flanker fiasco. He has stuck with he knows and it will be a very close match.

In the end I feel Welsh hwyl will just not be enough to rest the championship off the English rose. Wales to win by 4 points – English title but no Grand Slam.

Wales 22 England 18

Week 4 - Calm before the storm

This year's tournament has been very close with a fag paper between the four top sides. After disappointing prediction accuracy on the first two weeks, it was week 3 where your correspondant redeemed himself with 3 out of 3 correct results. There is still much to play for in this penultimate round of matches. Lets assess how I see it this week:

Scotland v Wales

After Scotland's lazarus style win last round in Murrayfield they will be high on confidence going into this match. It is ground breaking stuff seeing Scotland win back to back and now Wales are the latest team to face the Murrayfield caldron. With Arctic weather on the way - Scotland will feel confident mixing it with a Welsh team still finding its feet but also on for a hattrick of wins. Lets start by assessing Scotland's chances:

The return of Euan Murray will be welcomed against a strong Welsh front row who gave Italy a torrid time. You have to feel for Geoff Cross who was outstanding against Ireland who makes way. Scottish pack will fight for everything and will certainly disrupt a flaky welsh line out. Expect a confident fired up back row taking teh game to Wales under the strong leadership of Kelly Brown. With a dangerous looking bench - game will be won or lost in the pack.

Behind the scrum, Laidlaw will be deadly with the boot punishing any misdemeanors and Wales will certainly want to stop the Scottish wingers getting any quick ball in attcaking positions. Jackson makes way for Duncan Weir at Fly Half who is a steady and consistent performer - probably just what Scotland need. Coach Scott Johnson has already been widning up the Welsh and he will have done his homework briefing his side on exactly what to expect. 

As for Wales, a solid performance in putting Italy to the sword means the Men of Harlech will come north of the border in confident mood. Coach Howley has responded well to the early dissapointment against Ireland and has recalled Warburton and Wynn-Jones to bolster the Welsh pack. Sam Warburton certainly has a lot to prove and his selection is very controversial. Likewise, Andrew Coobes is very unlucky to be dropped after some impressive performances. Howley is playing a low risk game and has gone for experience over form with these selections. Jenkins return to form will be missed with injury but Paul James is a strong replacement - especially in the scrums and Wales should match Scotland in intensity up front.

In the backs - Wales have the edge assuming they can secure enough quality line out ball. We still haven't seen Jamie Roberts and Jonathan Davies in full flow whilst Cuthbert and George North ahve been had strong finishes in the last two matches. Scotland will eb wary of the Welsh backs and it will depend on Dan Biggar's ability to distribute the ball for Wales to score the tries their threequarters are clearly capable of inflicting on any team. Leigh Halfpenny has a lot to prove after several pundits gave their votes for Stuart Hogg as Lions fullback. 

Close intense game but unlike Ireland - Wales will front up stronger in the pack and will secure a narrow victory.

Scotland 19 Wales 21

Ireland v France

Ireland will be wondering just what went wrong after their winning start in Cardiff. At Murrayfield they threw away a winning lead and after being ground down by England - it will have severely dented Irish heart and pride. Their and their much vaunted pack came second to the angry Scots in the rough stuff. Tom Court and Mike Ross having a difficult time. The return of Healy will help bolster a creaking scrum and they need to show huge improvement to satisfy a sceptical Dublin crowd or coach Kidney could be heading to the exit door. 

Paddy Jackson had a stuttering nightmare start to his international carrer in Murrayfield and is lucky to start again this week. The lack of a credible alternative and the omission of Ronan O'Gara 

surely brings his international career to an end. If Ireland can get their line out functioning and retain enough possession then their threequarter line always looks dangerous. the Excellent McFaddern and Earls are big strong runners and they really take some stopping with the ball in hand. O'Driscoll is still working with Dorien Grey and never seems to age and a strong leadership role is required from him again this weekend

For France - a much better showing against England with Parra and Trinh-Duc at half backs. Wesley Fofana enjoyed more time and space to vary his runs at centre and Thomas Domingo caused Dan Cole some serious thought in the scrums and loose. But it all went to cock when Saint Andre reverted to Michalak and Machenaud and inexplicably reverted to the virtually the same team which had been so poor in the first two matches. England regained composure and punished the poor substituions fo the French supremo. 

Michalak is amazingly is recalled for this match. Just what is Saint Andre doing? Obviously watching a different game to the rest of us with tri-colour coloured glasses as Freddie has been shockingly bad and all French morale and progress evaporated the minute he stepped on the Twickenham turf. Other than that, the recall of Medard is welcomed and it will really depend upon the mercuriual Michalak to determine French fortunes.

I think he will misfire once more.  France will be heading into the final weekend staring in the the abyss of a wooden spoon finish. Unbelieveable but true. Ireland by 7 points.

Ireland 27 France 20

England v Italy

The white machine motors onto to take on the Azzuri on Sunday at HQ. I have been impressed with the team spirit of the England camp and Lancaster continues to be the Coach of the Tournament rarely putting a foot wrong so far with his selections and tactical awareness. 

There is clear power and dynamism in all areas of this England temam and it is hard to pick holes but Graham Rowntree will be concerned with a misfiring line out and disappointing scrummage - both usually key England strengths. The Rose are badly missing Alex Corbiesero and Marler has been an erratic replacement despite a strong showing against Ireland. So in come Mako Vunipola for his first England start as Lancaster wields the axe with five changes.  Vunipola is a strong if static prop but has undoubted scrummaging skills which is exactly what is required against Italy. Wood, Haskell and Robshaw are re-united in England's strongest back row. The sad experiment of using Courtney Laws was badly exposed against France and I don't see him returning to that role anytime soon.

England's problem area seems to be Hooker and that is something of a surprise. Lancaster seems unsure of who is his best selection  Tom Youngs has been disappointing with a scud missile accuracy on his line out throwing whilst Dylan Hartley hasn't exactly set the heart racing either.  Youngs gets the nod this week.  Toby Flood steps in for the injured Farrell with Danny Care given the nod at scrum half. Care has been mercurial during his England career but I think he is the more exciting player over Ben Youngs and he deserves his chance. Brad Barritt continues his tackling machine efforts at inside centre and Lancaster must have been tempted to give Twelvetrees another outing but stayed with the same pairing who did a lot of damage against France with Manu Tuilagi having some strong runs in an impressive performance.   

As for Italy, they will be delighted to welcome back Parisse who was so badly missed against Wales. They have a terrible record against England at HQ and I don't see them competing for a full 80 minutes this time either. Their scrum was rattled and disrupted by Wales. Martin Castrogiovani came off a poor second to Gethin Jenkins last match and will again have a tough time with the England front row whom he knows so well from his Aviva premiership day job. I am please to see Luciano Orquera  recalled at outside half in place of the stuttering Kris Burton, and McLean, Masi and Canale have all impressed me this season. 

Italy's only chance will be to get an early score and pressure England at the set pieces especially the line out. I don't see them getting enough quick quality ball to bother the English defence and another cricket score defeat looks likely with England running riots with five or six tries. 

England 52 Italy 9

SIX NATIONS ROUND THREE – KEEP CALM AND CARRY ON

Round three is what is proving to be an exhilarating Six Nations. The simple wartime message of “Keep Calm and Carry On” seems to be an appropriate one for five of the six teams. Only 33% success rate in my predictions so far but in a tournament of surprise results, no one was backing Wales to triumph in Paris and few would have expected Scotland to rise to the challenge against an Italian team that was so dominant in round one.  That's what makes this competition the most exciting in World Rugby. The uncertainty and unpredictability are what make us love this game so much. Lets look at this week’s matches:

ITALY v WALES

Ten seconds of inspiration from Dan Biggar was enough to save a nation. The whole of the principality breathed a sign of total relief as Ryan Jones’s team showed grit and determination to win a rare victory in Paris. Wales have only won five times in Paris in the past 38 years and after being written off by everyone the dragon rose to the challenge. Al Pacino delivered the speech “Life is a game of inches” in the epic sports movie Any Given Sunday and that really reflected where Wales were before that winning try.

One win doesn’t make a championship but it certainly gives Wales heart and optimism for the remaining games. Rob Howley has rightly stuck with the same starting line up in Rome, which means no place for Sam Warburton. Justin Tipuric is smaller and more mobile in the loose and is the form no. 7 in Wales. Rightly he keeps his place after two good performances. Captain Courageous Ryan Jones was an inspiration in Paris and my man of the match. What a performance by a player who has taken more knock downs from the Welsh selectors than a punch drunk boxer.  Wales stood up where they needed too and we saw a much more confidant Dan Biggar playing behind a pack, which held its own against the French.

So on to Rome – Wales own banana skin venue. This time things are different. Expect a big Welsh support in the Stadio Olympico and it will feel like a home game for Wales. Italy has been a curate’s egg – good in parts; but they will miss the inspiration of their skipper Parisse who will be a massive loss to them. The Welsh pack will be able to match the Azzuri upfront and they have the power in the backs to score tries as well as kick penalties. In the end it will come down to who gives away the highest number of penalties. Italy have made some strange selections with the awful Kris Burton returning at outside half and I don’t see how any of their 4 changes improve their chances. Tight at times but a Welsh victory by at least 7 points.

Italy 14 Wales 21

ENGLAND v FRANCE

What should have been the big game of this competition is rather turned into a damp squib. Just how awful have France been in their two games so far? Atrocious is a polite description of a French side that have shown no heart for the fight and the total absence of a plan B assuming there was even a plan A! Hard to believe this is the same team who best Australia by 33pts just 4 months ago.  Saint Andre has been forced into changes and you have to say this now looks like a much more balanced and dangerous French XV. Seven changes may seem a lot but my god they were needed. The recall of Parra and Trinh-Doh at half backs looks like the right decision. Outside half is a problem position in France. There are “foreign” players occupying the No. 10 jersey at 10 out of 14 top clubs. Trinh-Doh has a patchy record but he is at least a proper fly half expect the backs to get moving. Wesley Fofana back at Centre is the again the right choice and Vincent Clerc is always dangerous with the ball in his hands.

In the forwards, Prop Thomas Domingo, hooker Benjamin Kayser, and lock Christophe Samson all add power to the pack and it will be an interesting game at scrum time. The recall of Yannick Nyanga at flanker gives the back row a dangerous and attacking look about them.

As for England, they were simply superb in a grinding game in Dublin. Their pack was on top and they stopped Ireland from getting good quick ball in atrocious conditions. Joe Marler stood up where it was needs and performed very well against the over-rated Mike Ross. Far play – Marler is another player I haven’t rated who stepped up after a shaky performance against Scotland.  Farrell is kicking withy metronomic accuracy and England’s pack are a real hand full for anyone right now.

So why mess with the team? I just don’t get some of Stuart Lancaster’s selection decisions for this game. Lancaster is turning into a great rather than a good coach so he obviously sees things we don’t in making some controversial changes. Lets start with eth easy one. Tom Youngs has been poor in both of his games so far, and the recall of Dylan Hartley looks like a safe and just decision. The dropping of Twelvetrees is a backward step for me. He has had two great games and now he is dropped. Why? Manu Tuilagi is a big one dimensional lump. I really can’t see the logic of dropping an intelligent footballer like Twelvetrees to bring in the beast.  Bastareaud is a similar player for France and he did nothing, and I mean nothing with the ball in hand against Wales. I would have left Manu on the bench and used him as a 20 minute game breaker rather than starting.

Even more bizarre is the selection of Courtney Lawes at flanker.  Sure he has played there for Northampton but he is hardly a specialist and against France’s marauding back row that could be a very poor selection. Thomas Waldrom is the specialist on the bench and I expect he will have at least 30 minutes game time.

France have lost their last 5 at Twickenham and it is difficult to see them breaking down England this time. Several pundits are referencing the 2011 World Cup where France with no form upset England. I don’t see that this time unless they get early tries. England need to stay calm and keep to their game plan and kick the multiple penalties they will get from the French pack. Keep the scoreboard ticking over and watch the French heads droop should be the plan. France will I believe shock all of us withy their team spirit and will rise to the challenge and I feel a few English sphincters could be popping second half. England with a narrow 2 point victory.

England 30 France 28

SCOTLAND v IRELAND

The Scots shocked everyone with their margin of victory over Italy. They looked inspired and it was no doubt the best Scottish performance home or away for many years. Hogg and Maitland looked full of running and Jackson and Laidlaw looked much more assured than the previous week. In the forwards, Kelly Brown has proved to be a solid captain and Geoff Cross is a wily old fox who will ensure the front row stays solid despite the absence of Euan Murray with this being a Sunday game. With bench options with Denton and Kellock – the Scottish pack has the ability to stand up and be counted. The home advantage will tell and with cold weather – you feel Scotland have a chance of back to back Six Nations victories for the first time since 2001.

Ireland were ground down by England’s forwards in Dublin and their mounting injury count means we see a far different Ireland team this week. Ireland were deceiving in their opening game with Wales asleep for 50 minutes and they are massively over-rated. The loss of Healy is a big blow in the pack and with Mike Ross being taught a lesson is scrummaging and loose play last week by Dan Cole, the Irish pack is not looking that convincing. With D’Arcy and Sexton also missing – a good deal of flair has been stripped from the Irish attack. 

The Ulster pair of Paddy Jackson and Luke Marshall are bold choices at Fly half and Centre, but have they got the bottle? Jackson folded horribly under pressure in last year’s Heineken Cup final. With Ferris and Zebo out for the rest of the competition, and Chris Henry injured for this game; the options for changes off the bench look thin. If Jackson can hold it together, then Ireland have the belief to go on and win against against their Celtic cousins.

I think Scotland will hold firm and nick a surprise victory. Scotland by 3 points.

Scotland 19 Ireland 16

SIX NATIONS 2013 WEEK TWO – INTO THE VALLEY OF DEATH…

As if the first week wasn’t dramatic enough, week two sees three fantastic match-ups, which will if anything; surpass last week’s twists and turns. This week’s blog comes from Paris where your ever optimistic author has travelled to see the match between the two big losers – Galles et France. Three of the six are looking for their first wins this week but will all face stiff opposition in some titanic tussles. Lets look at the runners and riders:

Scotland v Italy

Italy achieved the impossible again sending shockwaves through la Republique Francaise with another stunning upset in Rome. Parisse was outstanding and the Italian pack will strike fear into a Scotland side that showed moments of flair and grit but could not sustain a defence that could see off the rampaging English.

Italy will be looking back to 2007 and come to Murrayfield with high hopes of a second victory in this campaign. Luciano Orquera showed that Italy are not all forwards with a great display at 10. It is same again for coach Jacques Brunel with only the injured Sgarbi replaced by the dependable and experienced Canale in the centres. Expect more of the same from the Italian pack with veteran Prop Lo Cicero joining a narrow group of players reaching 100 caps.

I have very negative about Italy over the years and I still do not enjoy their forward dominated pedantic style of play; but credit where it is due, beating France was a real scalp and they now can feel confident of winning perhaps 4 matches this season with Ireland and Wales still to face the caldron in Rome.

For Scotland, last week’s trip to HQ brought a familiar result. They will not underestimate the Azzuri and will put up a stout defence in the Scottish capital.  The loss of Strokosch gives young Rob Harley a chance at flanker and he will prove a worthy replacement. I have been impressed with his form for Glasgow Warriors. Coach Johnson makes one other change with Ross Ford rightly re-instated at hooker. Twickenham saw some very disappointing play from halfbacks Laidlaw and Jackson and the Bravehearts will need quick ball to Lamont and Matt Scott to have any chance, as I fear they will be ground down up front. In a likely cold and wet Murrayfield, it will take stout hearts and fitness to prevail. Italy to repeat the past with a narrow win.

Scotland 16 Italy 20

France v Wales

Wales have an awful record at the Stadt de France and this team with low morale and even lower strength in depth will again find the going tough. Captain Warburton is injured again, which give old-stager Ryan Jones the opportunity to Captain his country for the 30^th time. Ryan Jones has been frankly treated abysmally by Welsh coaches and I am delighted that he still wants to put his body on the line for his nation and is not petulant regarding his selection. Congratulations Ryan - a real Welsh legend!

Can a caretaker coach get sacked? You’d hope so after the abysmal way Howley has handled Welsh preparation and selection. Yes Wales have a huge injury list but only a blind man could not see Dan Biggar was hopelessly out of his depth last week and the total loss of form of Gethin Jenkins. What do we get? Three changes – Hibbard in at hooker, Ryan Jones replacing the lightweight Shingler, and Tipuric finally given his chance to start a game in the red shirt.

You simply can’t try and win a match when you start playing in the 52^nd minute. Wales were caught asleep last week and only when changes were made did Wales show any real passion and ability. James Hook must be wondering just what he has to do to start. Ditto Paul James. The Welsh coaches frankly are guilty of more abysmal selections. Roberts and Jonathan Davies were very poor in Cardiff but survive because there simply is no alternative. The Welsh bench looks very weak for this game and it is very hard to be optimistic. I must apologize to Andrew Coombs who I very disparaging said was an “abysmal selection” last week. What do I know? He proved me wrong and was my Welsh Man of the Match. So humbled, Andrew – I must apologize and congratulate you for an outstanding debut.

So – what of France? What a directionless shambles they looked last week. Michalak can’t possibly play as badly again can he? Slow ball didn’t help but the lack of any clear game plan really hurt Les Bleus. There simply was no plan B. The return of Bastareaud will give them more power but he should be easy for Roberts and Davies to handle. A poor change in my view. France need flair and speed not bulk and power.

The absence of Pape gives Dusautoir the captain’s armband and he will need to really motivate France to raise their game. The battle will be won in the forwards and if France get an early score then I fear for Wales. If the Welsh can keep in touch by half time then nothing is impossible as they showed last week. French heads notoriously go down easily. My wife Johanna always talks about rugby being a game of two halves and Wales are certainly a second half team. The question is can they stay in touch long enough to get in their stride? I think not. Not going to be a great spectacle. France to win by two scores.

France 27 Wales 16

Ireland v England

After the Saturday matches, attention will turn to Dublin on Sunday as England are the visitors to the Aviva Stadium. England did just enough to win against Scotland but it was far from a convincing victory. The score line flattered the rose and they will need to up the ante considerably this week.  At the time of writing, the England team has not been released but I am expecting Twelvetrees to be dropped fro the returning Tuilagi. He will be bitterly disappointed after his outstanding debut last week but Lancaster holds no room for sentiment and will have no hesitation in releasing the beast to target Ireland’s ageing centres. England still have selection headaches at prop as Marler was again disappointing and Vuniploa may well start given the damage he caused to Scotland’s experienced front row last weekend. I would also like to see Danny Care starting and see quicker ball out to the backs. Hartley will almost certainly return and Haskell in many ways strengthens the English back row.

As for Ireland, it was the perfect start in Cardiff. They dominated first half possession and O’Brien and Best were outstanding. Sexton was metronomic in his kicking precision and they looked at one point like they would romp home by more than 50 points. But, and it’s a big but; they fell apart in the last 30 minutes against the Welsh and were hanging on for grim death at the end. England will certainly punish any errors and will exploit any openings Ireland may offer. Home advantage helps the Irish but England are made of stern stuff and this team will stand up and be counted. At the end of the day with two evenly matched packs – it will come down to the battle between the halfbacks. Farrell and (hopefully) Care for England against Sexton and Murray for Ireland. Both Farrell and Sexton have cool heads and deadly accuracy with the boot. The team that concedes the most penalties will lose for sure. The winners of this battle likely to be the Lions first choice halfbacks. England to put their Dublin hoodoo to bed and win in a tight contest.

Ireland 16 England 22

SIX NATIONS 2013 – WARNING - THERE MAY BE LIONS PRESENT

Six Nations 2013 starts this weekend with some interesting tests for the Northern Hemisphere’s rugby elite. Some say the Heineken Cup has over. -Taken the Six Nations as the pinnacle of the European season. Whilst the competition may be fiercer and standard of rugby superior at times, nothing can beat the magic of this tournament. In 2013, we have a British Lions tour to look forward to and so the performance of the players will be even more closely scrutinized than usual and everyone will be playing at their absolute best to hit the attentions of the Lions selections. After a 67% success rate last year- better than any newspaper pundit BTW - Lets see how I see the teams will perform this championship:

ENGLAND

Last year I predicted England to have a mediocre season and could not have been more wrong. Stuart Lancaster has proven himself a canny coach and has developed the England team beyond all recognition. This patience was rewarded with an outstanding victory over the All Blacks. Say what you like about them being tired and having one eye on the plane – a win is a win and no one wants to lose to England. FACT!  So will England kick on or will they have a hangover from that momentous victory? I think England will dominate this year’s championship. They have a strong squad, their clubs are doing well in Europe and the draw with all the Blue teams at home gives them a massive platform to build on. In the backs, Mike Brown has emerged to rightly take his place in the white shirt. He is a very underrated player and the courage of the selectors to pick him ahead of more established players has been vindicated. England three-quarter line will be without the bulk and smash/kill tactics of Tuigali for the first match and personally I think that will make England stronger. Billy Twelvetrees has been outstanding all season fro Glaws and he really deserves his chance. I think he will grab it with both hands and make the shirt his own. Farrell is back at halfback in place of the blundering Flood and England will do real damage if the ball gets in the backs. 

Up front – England have a huge depth of talent except at loss head prop. The loss of Corbiesero is a big one and the ponderous Joe Marler was found out badly in the autumn. Hartley on the bench is a surprise to many but Parling and Launchbury are a very strong powerhouse in the 2^nd Row and Robshaw, Wood and Morgan are the equal of any in the back row. England will start with a comfortable win over Scotland and will follow that up with narrow wins over France and Ireland, and a bigger win over Italy to set up a Grand Slam decider in Cardiff.  The Welsh will be desperate to save their season and could well sneak a narrow in in eth final game.

Predicted Finish: 1^st but no Grand Slam

FRANCE

France look very strong and will once again challenge England hard for the title. They will be anxious to avoid the Rome banana skin and start with a win. Italy will not be easy but France will have too much class and will be flattered with a comfortable victory. They follow this with Wales the first visitors to the Stade de France and a narrow win there will set them up for the championship decider at Twickenham on 23^rd Feb. France have a new coach in Saint-Andrew who has tasted success at every level as a player and coach. He has instilled a new discipline to their training and they unusually for the French; they seem to have good harmony amongst the players. Fulgence Ouedraogo, Louis Picamoles and Thierry Dusautoir are right now probably the best back row combination in the World. France have plenty of firepower in the backs with Florien Fritz and Wesley Fofana both capable of opening any defence and scoring tries which may be the deciding factor in this year’s title.  Huget is solid at the back and Freddie Michalak is back to his very best. He has a natural chemistry with Saint-Andre and he will be the key player for France in whether or not they can beat England and win the title. It will be a fantastic game against England and France will be bridesmaids again when the table is completed.

Predicted Finish: 2^nd

IRELAND

Ireland area again in re-building mode and will represent a difficult obstacle for every team to overcome. Brian O’Driscoll has stated this will be his Six Nations swansong but it is hard to see Ireland worrying either England or France for the title. There are some clear politics in their selections and the decision to leave out the outstanding Chris Henry for the Welsh match looks like a fatal error. The Ulsterman would be the first name on the team sheet of any other country but amazingly he only makes the bench. The pack is hugely experienced but will miss the leadership and experience of Paul O’Connell. His absence is something Ireland will have to come to terms with as he reaches the twilight of his career but he will be a big loss this championship. The selection of Craig Gilroy is well deserved and he and Simon Zebo will be able to able to stand up and test any defence. The absence of Tommy Bowe has given Gilroy his chance and with Rob Kearney solid and reliable at full back – Ireland have a very strong back three. Jonny Sexton leads at fly half with the “dad’s army” pairing of O’Driscoll and D’Arcy looks short sighted. Keith Earls can feel very aggrieved to be left out. Elsewhere Cian Healy and Mike Ross are heavily hyped and we will see just how strong they really are and whether or not they can challenge for the Lions.

Opening in Cardiff is a tough start and Ireland follow that up with England. So two defeats will start to see the panic button pressed and Ireland will come back to beat France in Dublin and will see off Italy and Scotland to finish with 3 wins.

Predicted Finish: 4^th

ITALY

Italy really has not made progress over the past 12 months. They remain the whipping boys of the Six Nations but will spoil the party for Wales (again) and will give Scotland a massive fright. Two years ago they did the unthinkable and beat France in Rome. History will not repeat itself and the Italians will not look forward to travelling to Twickenham. They will give Ireland a fright in the 1^st half and will also make Scotland tremble but will not triumph over the Bravehearts.  Jacques Brunel is a good coach and he has worked hard with the squad at his disposal. Parisse remains the stand out player and is a wise choice at Captain. Martin Castrogiovanni, Lorenzo Cittadini, Alberto De Marchi, and Andrea Lo Cicero are all strong forwards but again Italy lack critical talent in their backs. Kris Burton is experienced but highly erratic. In the end the Azzuri will not build beyond their 5th place from last season and a solitary win is all I see.

Predicted Finish: 6^th  – Wooden Spoon

SCOTLAND

Another team with new coach and captain. This year marks 30 years since Scotland last enjoyed a win over England at Twickenham. Scott Johnson has consistently failed when given eth top job and he is not going to find things any easier with Scotland. His backroom staff will gain as Dean Ryan is a very talented addition to his coaching staff and public expectation is at an all time low for Scotland. Kelly Brown is a tough fighter and will add steel as Captain. They have a difficult schedule with a defeat at HQ followed by perennial nemesis Italy in week two. Scotland will grind out a victory and will also give both Ireland and Wales close calls at Murrayfield before a final hammering in Paris.  Tim Visser is exciting and is a real wild card for the Lions. He is quick, elusive and strong defensively could be the mystery star from this year’s competition. Jackson and Laidlaw will be solid if not the most dynamic at halfback but the back division lacks flair and will be starved of possession. A difficult opening for Johnson as Scotland will once again only see one win.

Predicted finish: 5^th

WALES

Wales look like a country and a team in total disarray. They have completely failed to stop the player drain to France and the Welsh Regions have a torrid time in Euro competitions picking up only 2 wins. Their injury list is long and their heads are down after a very bad last 9 months. To many, me included; they were surprise winner of last years Six Nations and seemed to get worse as games went on. Poor results in Australia followed by a very poor autumn and again Welsh expectations are low. Rob Howley has been a disaster as coach and really gives little confidence that he knows what he is doing or picking the right side. Given the WRU is killing rugby in Wales by refusing to support the regions - it is difficult to blame everything on his shoulders. Wales still have world class talent and I am usually very pessimistic about Wales but actually I see some positive light and I believe Wales will have surrender their title but will have an okay championship.

Wales remain very strong in the three-quarter line albeit a little pedestrian and predictable. Halfpenny is the one Welsh player to enhance his reputation in 2012 and he is the first name ion the team sheet. Cuthbert and North remain dangerous and powerful finishers and Roberts and Davies although not showing great form are still powerful in both attack and defence. Biggar has the weight of a nation on his narrow shoulders and is a poor choice at Number 10. I don’t know what James Hook has to do to start at outside half? Biggar has been a spectacular failure for Wales and has never repeated his club form at international level. He also has never built a solid partnership with Mike Phillips. This is despite playing large period of rugby with him at the Ospreys. They seem almost like strangers who met in the bar when they put on the Welsh shirt.  Wales will also be struggling in the forwards. Gethin Jenkins is rusty through not playing regularly, Adam Jones not really match fit giving the Welsh Front row a raw feel. Given their crisis in eth 2^nd row, Wales turn to unlikely sources for inspiration. Andrew Coombs is an abysmal choice in 2^nd row and Olly Kohn from Quins a real surprising choice on the bench. Lets hope the Welsh selectors have checked his somewhat dubious claims to play for Wales. 

In the back row, Sam Warburton must have a collection of pictures of coach Rob Howley in compromising situations. How on earth is he starting ahead of Justin Tiperic? It simply beggars belief and just shows how desperate the Welsh have become. Warburton has been simply awful. He has shown no form and should not even be in the Welsh Squad. Elsewhere Andries Pretorius will give options for Wales off the bench and old-stager Ryan Jones can still do some damage although probably not for 80 minutes. Wales will narrowly beat Ireland before road trip defeats in Paris and Rome. They will rally against the wind and rain in Murrayfield and will sneak a narrow win to deprive England of a Grand Slam. Lets hope so anyway J.

Predicted Finish: 3^rd

This weekend’s predictions:

Wales 22 Ireland 20

Engalnd 45 Scotland 6

Italy 9 France 24