Guinness Six Nations Round 3 - Continued Momentum or shattered Dreams?

Halfway stage in the 2022 Guinness Six Nations and Rugby Raconteur has 5 correct predictions from the 6 matches held to date. One of the striking areas has been the influence of having full crowds back at every match. Last year, rugby raconteur chose to not comment as in my eyes the whole idea of playing matches with no crowd was utterly pointless. 

The Six Nations is all about the experience. The one-eyed home crowds, the fun and anticipation of travelling away. The full crowds have definitely brought the tournament to life with only one away win so in the opening two rounds. 

 

A look at the long-term statistics shows us that since the inception of the 6 nations in 2000, 10 out of the 16 championships (62.5%) have been won by a team with ‘home advantage’ - that is playing 3 home ties as opposed 2 home ties each year. Perhaps more strikingly, on the 8 occasions a ‘Grand Slam’ (a side winning all 5 of their games) has been won, 6 of these have been by a side with ‘home advantage’ (75%).

 

In terms of overall games 61% of been won by the home side. England dominate with 84% home victories whilst given there are only 39% of matches won by the away side - Ireland have the best record achieving 54% away wins since 2000.

 

 

France came into the tournament as favourites and underlined that status with a spellbinding win over Ireland in Paris. The game was billed as a potential title decider and the pulsating contest did not disappoint. Antoine Dupont’s superb try set the tone and French physicality, intensity and speed of ball was, at times, off the scale to the delight of a raucous Stade de France crowd. Fabien Galthie’s formidable hosts are on a steady upward curve and marching relentlessly towards next year’s home World Cup. They are now undoubtedly the team to beat as they attempt to end a 12-year wait for championship glory.

 

Italy Under-20s made history on Friday by defeating England for the first time. There was no such joy for their senior counterparts, whose inclusion in the Six Nations continues to be the subject of much scrutiny. The Azzurri have now lost a remarkable 34 championship matches in a row, dating back to 2015. Eddie Jones’ much-changed England healed some wounds from their opening-day setback against Scotland but, in truth, a routine 33-0 win in Rome was entirely predictable. Far too many matches involving the Italians are relative non-events.

 

With three Rounds to go – the competition is still open to a late surge by any team. Let’s see how I see the key games in Round 3

 

SCOTLAND v FRANCE

 

Scotland had everything going for them ahead of their trip to Wales, having claimed a stirring Calcutta Cup victory and facing a team dismantled by Ireland seven days earlier. The Scots had not won in Cardiff since 2002, yet they were clear favourites to pile more Six Nations misery on the defending champions. Gregor Townsend’s side, though, failed to nail key moments and fly-half Finn Russell’s yellow card 12 minutes from time cost them dearly. Two of their last three games are against France and Ireland, so they have now got it all to do to stop their campaign from fizzling out.

 

What started as a promising season, Strength in depth in every position, a full squad to pick from, a team so settled it almost picks itself, and the hope to kick on from last year’s fine finish to the reality of life in the Six nations.

 

A less than convincing victory against the English followed by a callow capitulation against a Welsh side robbed of some of their best talent. Injuries to their key players Sutherland, Gray and Redpath, established players not rising to the occasion and suddenly that pool of talent looks more like a puddle.

 

Perhaps, as in life, I err on the side of pessimism but it’s already beginning to look like another false dawn. The French backs are powerful, and I do think they will also edge it in the forwards. 

Scotland’s ‘Bam’ squad failed to materialise 2 weeks ago and the back up of Keble and Berghan coming into the mix concerns me. Meanwhile in the 2nd row, Gilchrist has been workmanlike, nothing more. Gray a tacklebot with no go forward gear now injured has no one champing at the bit to replace him. A back row shorn of Ritchie and a Hamish Watson still short of form will frighten no one.

 

In this season’s Six Nations, France is the only side to kick the ball over 2 kilometres – 2,260m to be precise. That’s nearly a full kilometre more than Ireland and still comfortably more than Scotland who have the second highest tally for this stat (1,907m). This is a continuation of what brought Les Bleus success against New Zealand in the Autumn. While the attention focused on Romain Ntamack running from behind his own line (and Scotland do still need to be wary of the visitor’s talent for improvisation) it was 944 kicking metres – nearly 200 more than the All Blacks – that really put France in a position to win that epic match.

 

Scotland will need their own kicking game to be virtually flawless if they are going to win the contest in this area. While the French have spread their gains, with 8 different backs having kicked 50+ metres so far, Scotland are heavily reliant on Finn Russell and Stuart Hogg. Ali Price demonstrated over the summer what a weapon his box kicking game can be, but he seems to have been deferring to his half back partner so far in the Six Nations. Antoine Dupont and Maxime Lucu have 789m of kicks under their belts, but Price and Ben White have only combined for 250m. A victorious Scottish performance on Saturday probably needs a bigger contribution from their Lions’ scrum half.

 

Gregor Townsend has made three changes to his Scotland team – all in the pack – to face France this Saturday at Murrayfield following the round two Guinness Six Nations defeat away to Wales on February 12. Rory Darge will make his first start for the Scots when he takes over at blindside, with Sam Skinner switching to lock following the loss to injury of Jonny Gray.

 

There are also changes at tighthead and No8. Zander Fagerson comes into the front row in place of the benched WP Nel while his brother Matt Fagerson is replaced in the Scotland back row by Magnus Bradbury, who is starting his first game for Scotland since 2020.  

In the replacements, Oli Kebble is included after joining the squad this week. Jamie Hodgson and Nick Haining will also be aiming to make their first Scotland appearances in this year’s Six Nations off the bench. Mark Bennett also makes his return to a Scotland squad for the first time since 2018.  

 

Fabien Galthie has made one change to his France team to take on Scotland this Saturday at Murrayfield following the round two Guinness Six Nations win at home to Ireland in Paris on February 12. 

 

Left wing Gabin Villiere, one of the stars of the Six Nations tournament so far with his try-scoring exploits, has dropped out of the France selection due to injury and his No11 jersey will be filled by Yoram Moefana, who switches over from midfield where the fit-again Jonathan Danty has been recalled to inside centre.  

The French, who are the only team with two wins from two so far, have named the same bench that they selected for the victory against Ireland.

 

A Scotland win on Saturday would be their third in a row against France in the Six Nations. This would be the first time the dark blues have managed three on the bounce against anyone other than Italy in this competition.

 

After consecutive home wins over Italy and Ireland, the French must dig out their passports and make the trip to Edinburgh, where they face a different kind of rugby threat: Murrayfield.

 

France have lost four out of five of their most recent meetings with Townsend’s side and to make matters worse, they must play them this time at their riotous home ground where they will be bombarded with passionate Scottish voices for the duration.

 

To side-step this potential banana skin, the French must start fast and remain at the same levels of intensity for the whole 80 minutes.

They can’t afford to be slow out of the blocks and fall behind early like they did against Italy.

 

They also can’t afford to ease into the second half like they did against Ireland, this could have cost them the game.

 

Fabien Galthie’s men must be relentless in defence to suffocate the Scottish backline, they lack ball carriers among their forwards so attention must be on Finn Russell and company.

 

With any luck, they’ll be able to ride out the Scottish storm of noise and continue their journey to a Grand Slam, but the men in blue are not an obstacle you can ignore (even after a loss to Wales)

 

France will continue their momentum with a narrow win in the Scottish Capital.

 

Scotland 19 France 23

 

ENGLAND v WALES

 

England bounced back from their shattering collapse against Scotland by outclassing Italy 33-0 at the Stadio Olimpico. The team showed a ruthless streak 

By delivering a five-try rout orchestrated by man of the match Marcus Smith.

 

They come home to Twickenham full of confidence as they face down Wayne Pivac’s Wales who will feel emboldened after their unexpected win over Scotland. 

 

Wales rose to the challenge to beat Scotland with a performance showing guts, determination, pride, and passion. It was a delight to see. The Cardiff crowd helped carry them home and whilst they might have a combined age of 65, Dan Biggar and Jonathan Davies proved once again their unremitting commitment to the cause. Both players celebrated 100th Test match appearances for Wales and the British and Irish Lions in style, with captain Biggar defying a knee issue to kick 15 points, including a match-winning drop-goal, and centre Davies making two critical late tackles after going on as a substitute when the Scots were pressing relentlessly. 

 

To quote Will Greenwood’s famous commentary in the Wales v Fiji World Cup defeat – “now is the time for Wales to dig deep. The fizzy lager on a Wednesday night in Bridgend have they avoided it”. Wales papered over the cracks in the WRU’s creaking structure and continued to defy the regional form books with a strong performance earning a well-deserved victory.

 

Dan Biggar has for so long been every coach’s dream: a fly-half who understands his role and for Wales has so often been the catalyst for his team being greater than the sum of its parts. It is noticeable wherever Biggar has moved, or whenever there has been a coaching change in the team in which he is playing, that Biggar’s game changes too. He does pass rapidly and accurately if that is what the game-plan requires. He will kick the ball with accuracy and resolution if that is what the game-plan requires. He can do it all – and he has so often shown a deep understanding of the game which has more than made up for his lack of twinkle-toed steps or top-end acceleration.

 

Eddie Jones had recalled the Courtney Lawes and Manu Tuilagi to his starting England XV to face Wales this Saturday, the inclusion of the fit-again duo being two of four changes made to the team that began the Guinness Six Nations round two win over Italy on February 13. However, in a late twist today, England have been dealt a massive blow less than 48 hours out from their crucial match versus Wales on Saturday as it has been confirmed that Manu Tuilagi will now not take any part in the match. 

 

The Sale midfielder had been chosen as the England No12 when Eddie Jones named his team at 11:30am on Thursday but he was scratched from the side at 7:45pm that evening, resulting in the recall of the axed Joe Marchant to the squad.

 

The head coach had made six alterations to his starting team going into that match in Rome after losing to Scotland and he has now shaken up his selection again for this weekend’s round three game at home against the Welsh at Twickenham.   

 

Lawes missed the opening two matches of the Six Nations due to a concussion sustained when playing for Northampton in the Champions Cup last month.  

 

Nick Isiekwe drops to the bench in place of Ollie Chessum. Tom Curry, who had skippered the team in the opening two rounds, has given the captaincy back to Lawes, whose start at blindside will see Maro Itoje switch from flanker to lock.

 

Elsewhere, Luke Cowan-Dickie and Kyle Sinckler are chosen in the front row in place of Jamie George and Will Stuart. A major surprise, however, was Harry Randall being retained as the starting No9. Veteran Ben Youngs was expected to take the jersey back having been on the bench in Rome where he equalled Jason Leonard’s record of 114 caps in England’s 33-0 win away to Italy.

 

The big shock of the weekend’s selections sees Wales boss Wayne Pivac has left out wing Louis Rees-Zammit and recalled number eight Taulupe Faletau for Saturday’s Guinness Six Nations clash against England.

 

Rees-Zammit is replaced by a fit-again Josh Adams, with Alex Cuthbert retained on the other wing and set to win his 50th cap.

Faletau makes his first Wales appearance for 11 months, having proved his fitness following a long-term ankle injury by playing in Bath’s last two Gallagher Premiership matches against Wasps and Leicester.

 

He returns in a reshaped back-row, with Ross Moriarty switching to blindside flanker and Taine Basham lining up at openside. Jac Morgan, who made his Test debut against Scotland 12 days ago, is on the bench.

Pivac has retained Owen Watkin and Nick Tompkins as his centre combination, while there are call-ups among the replacements for Osprey’s fly-half Gareth Anscombe, Scarlets scrum-half Kieran Hardy and Dragons prop Leon Brown.

 

Players with English clubs are released back to them if they are not involved in a Wales matchday 23, so Gloucester star Rees-Zammit will be available for the Premiership appointment with Leicester on Saturday.

 

He is one of the most exciting players in European rugby, collecting four tries during last season’s Six Nations and being picked for the British and Irish Lions’ South Africa tour.

 

The 21-year-old has carved out a reputation for scoring dazzling solo tries, which he underlined with a breath-taking touchdown against Fiji during this season’s Autumn Nations Series.

 

But Cuthbert shone against Scotland, while Adams, who missed that game due to a calf muscle problem, has repeatedly excelled for Wales, with 17 tries in 36 Tests.

 

Faletau’s most recent Wales outing was against France in the final game of last season’s Six Nations tournament.

 

Wales have not beaten England in the Six Nations at Twickenham since 2012, and both teams need a victory to keep alive their title aspirations.

 

This will be close. Both teams are going through a transitional phase, with Wales also badly hit by injuries. Neither side is showing any sort of form. But if there's one game that can inspire players to up their game, to go above and beyond, it is England against Wales - a rivalry that dates back 141 years!

 

Neither rival can afford another loss if they want to stay in the hunt for championship glory, with both having opened the 2022 tournament with defeats before bouncing back in round two.

 

England impressed for 40 minutes against Italy, but the second half was mostly a notably disjointed affair that increased concerns over how far they currently are off the planet’s top teams with the World Cup looming large in France next year.

 

Marcus Smith was excellent again in Rome and formed a great axis with the electric Randall and Dombrandt, but it remains to be seen if that trio will remain intact here with Jones likely to turn back to the greater experience offered by the likes of Ben Youngs.

 

Much will depend on Smith again both in an attacking sense and from the tee, but he always seems to rise to the occasion completely unfazed.

Wales will no doubt battle valiantly once more, but they are hamstrung by the players unavailable.

 

England to win an attritional contest by seven points.

 

England 21 Wales 14

 

 

IRELAND V ITALY

 

The final game of the weekend sees Italy make the trip to Dublin to face a wounded Ireland.

 

Irish Grand Slam dreams may be over following defeat in Paris, but there is still a trophy to play for, starting with Sunday's 2022 Guinness Six Nations match against Italy.

 

The Azzurri are the tournament whipping-boys, and should France slip up this weekend against Scotland, points difference could be key in the outcome, especially as Les Bleus have already played the Italians.

 

So far Ireland have played two, won one and lost one, hammering Wales before narrowly losing to France. Italy, meanwhile, have suffered two heavy defeats - one to France and the other a shut-out defeat against England in Rome.

 

With plenty of talk about Italy's position in the tournament and whether they are deserving of their slot, the visitors will be desperate to avoid a humbling.

 

Leinster pair James Lowe and Jimmy O'Brien have been added to the Ireland squad.

 

Lowe will be looking to add to his nine caps to date having missed the opening two rounds through injury.

 

The 29-year-old returned to action in the United Rugby Championship at the weekend as Leinster beat Ospreys 29-7.

Uncapped O'Brien also played in the victory and will be hoping to make his Ireland bow at the Aviva Stadium.

 

Hooker Ronan Kelleher has been ruled out of the remainder of the Six Nations due to a shoulder issue.

 

Head coach Andy Farrell expects captain Johnny Sexton to be fit for the Italy clash.

 

A win for Italy is nearly impossible and an unrealistic aim. Instead, they simply need to keep fighting and put up a solid fight against Andy Farrell’s side.

 

Paolo Garbisi also needs to step up and orchestrate the Azzurri attack more effectively following a terrible outing versus England.

To win back those fans who would be happy to see them replaced, they must provide excitement and a challenge for Ireland, who are backed to walk all over the team coached by Kieran Crowley.

 

The Italian youngsters must step up and play at a level beyond what is expected for players of their experience

 

Italy has a point to prove after so much talk of South Africa replacing them in the Six Nations. However, their losing run will not end in Dublin.

 

Ireland 45 Italy 16

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Guinness Six Nations 2022 Week 2 - Defining moment or false dawns?

Week 1 predictions were good for Rugby Raconteur with 3 correct results and close estimates on the spread – 22 versus predicted 23 in Ireland game, 3 versus the predicted 2 in Scotland game and 27 versus predicted 40 in France game. The second round is rapidly upon us, and your correspondent will be hoping to keep up his 100% record. Let’s see how we see the games in round 2:

Wales v Scotland

First game up sees Gregor Townsend’s Scotland visit Cardiff – a city they haven’t won in since 2002 - twenty years of pain! 

 

For Wales - OMG – where do you start? If 29-7 does not sound quite an obliteration, the truth is that 50 points would have not flattered the Irish. Wales were so awful in Dublin that the final score line did not reflect the total dominance of Ireland in all facets of the game. Wales were clueless in attack, disorganised in defence and it was men against boys in Dublin.

 

This is crunch time for Pivac-19. He was a poor choice as coach and the noose is rapidly tightening around his neck as Wales go from bad to worse after a poor Autumn. There was a distinct lack of clarity in what they were trying to achieve on Saturday. Moving Josh Adams to centre was bizarre and combining him with a player that has had his defensive issues at Test level in Nick Tompkins was not the wisest decision. As a result, Ireland continually exploited that midfield channel and found holes in the Welsh threequarters. To be perfectly honest, they were fortunate to not ship 50 points and were thankful it was ‘only’ a 22-point defeat in the end.

 

Looking at the match stats – it’s incredibly hard to see any positivity. In defence – 22 missed tackles. That would never have happened in a Shaun Edwards coached team. Ill-discipline continues to also plague Wales with 14 penalties and one yellow card conceded in the game. Add to that a misfiring line out with only a 66% success rate, 75% maul success, 19 turnovers conceded, and 83% scrum success and you start to paint a picture of Wales’s issues. If you cannot win your set pieces, and the basics of forward work then you have no chance as the result demonstrated. 

 

The strange and ridiculous decision to play Josh Adams in the centre was a disaster. He gave away two offside penalties and a ridiculous yellow card. Ireland targeted him as a weak link from the very start. When you have players like Scott Williams, Owen Watkin, and Jonathan Davies available only a deluded idiot would play a winger in the centres in. game of this significance.

 

The gloves are off and Pivac and his coaching team must be dismissed as soon as possible. I see no optimism and given Italy’s encouraging performance in Paris – Wales face the risk of a complete humiliation in the championship with the likelihood of five defeats a distinct possibility. 

 

It was doubly hard for Welsh supporters as their Under 20 team were also completely humiliated losing 53-5 to their Irish counterparts. The lack of talent coming through in Wales is frightening and it’s not really a surprise when the governing body – choses to open a hotel rather than invest in their regional sides and academies. 

 

Analysis of the make-up of the Welsh regions reveal little over 50 per cent of the squad’s playing experience has been with that region, a fall of around 25 per cent in the last decade. In comparison, Leinster’s average is 89 per cent.

 

The result is that the days when the Wales national side covered over the cracks in the Welsh system appear to be over, at least in the short term.

 

At least (Saint) Warren Gatland had the ability to hire decent coaches and work on a game plan with the talent at his disposal. Wayne Pivac’s ineptitude hits new depths and with Jonathan Humphries coaching the forwards and Stephen Jones handling the backs it’s no wonder Wales are as poor as they are. 

 

Against this background it’s no surprise that an under-pressure Wayne Pivac has made three changes to the side that was soundly beaten in Dublin.

 

Josh Adams has been ruled out with a calf injury which is probably a good thing as the Welsh supporters will not subject to a reprise of his abject performance at centre. Alex Cuthbert replaces Johnny McNichol on the wing forming a new look back three with Liam Williams and Louis Rees-Zammit. Williams will be looking to improve after a disappointing display last week.

 

Owen Watkin will start at outside centre and will link up with Nick Tompkins in yet another new look centre combination. It is disappointing that the game changing Uilisi Halaholo has not yet recovered from his hamstring strain and so cannot make it to the match day 23. 

 

In the pack, Wyn Jones, Ryan Elias and Tomas Francis continue in the front row. Elias can be considered lucky to not be sacrificed for Dewi Lake who remains on the bench. 

 

Adam Beard and Will Rowlands remain in an unchanged 2nd row whilst 

The impressive Osprey back row Jac Morgan is selected for his Test debut.

 

The Brynamman product leads the URC stats in tackles (144) and the most dominant tackles (seven) this season. He is strong over the ball and forms a new look Welsh back row with Ross Moriarty at No.8 with the Dragons No. 8 joining his regional team-mate - the outstanding Taine Basham remaining at 7. 

Basham was the one shining light in that forgettable welsh performance and the bulk and power of this new look back row combination is one of the areas will be looking to take the game to Scotland as they search for physicality and balance.

 

Dan Biggar will earn his 100th cap for Wales as Captain at Outside Half whilst Tomos Williams has seen off the challenge of Gareth Davies to retain the No. 9 jersey. Davies remains the bench cover. 

Seb Davies, who was forced to withdraw from the game against Ireland due to back spasms, is joined by Aaron Wainwright in returning to the bench.

Centre Jonathan Davies, who is also named on the bench, will join Biggar in reaching 100 Tests for Wales and the Lions if he features on Saturday. Dewi Lake, Gareth Thomas, Dillon Lewis, form the front row replacements with Bristol Bears Callum Sheedy the remaining back replacement. 

 

Scotland have lost on their last eight Six Nations visits to the Welsh capital, conceding 251 points, but they will head south buoyed by a memorable Calcutta Cup success against England. That, suddenly, feels ominous for Wales. 

 

Gregor Townsend’s men are certainly in the title race after showing superb resilience to defeat the Auld Enemy at Murrayfield. England were the side in control in the first half and, to be honest, for most of the match, but the Scots’ defence, marshalled by Welshman Steve Tandy, was exceptional. They resisted several waves of attack and remained on the back foot in the early stages of the second period. They managed to stay in contention and edge to a harrow victory but make no mistake, they would have lost this match in previous years, which shows how far they have progressed.

 

They have nothing to feat this weekend and despite losing Flanker Jamie Richie who is a big loss to the Bravehearts. Ritchie has received surgery on a hamstring injury and will sadly be out for the rest of the 2022 Six Nations Championship

 

Gregor Townsend has named his team making five changes to the side that won the Calcutta Cup last weekend. 

 

There are three changes in the front-row with Pierre Schoeman and WP Nel starting alongside hooker Stuart McInally. The changes reflect the respect that Scotland have for the Welsh scrum which stood up well against Ireland. 

 

Grant Gilchrist will make his 50th appearance for Scotland.

The Edinburgh second row debuted for Scotland against France in 2013 and will lead the team out in Cardiff as vice-captain to complement his achievement.

 

Exeter Chiefs’ Jonny Gray will partner Gilchrist after making his return to the Scotland line-up in last Saturday’s thrilling 20-17 victory over England to retain the Calcutta Cup.

 

Exactly 10 years on from his Scotland debut against Wales in Cardiff, captain Stuart Hogg will mark the occasion with his 90th cap for his country in the same stadium.

 

Gray’s Exeter teammate Sam Skinner will start the match in place of Jamie Ritchie with Hamish Watson on the other flank and retains his place in the back row with Glasgow Warriors’ number eight Matt Fagerson also starting, fresh from his player of the match performance against England.

 

Glasgow Warriors’ Ali Price and Racing 92’s Finn Russell continue their partnership at 9 and 10 respectively.

 

There is only one change in the back line with Glasgow Warriors’ centre Sione Tuipulotu set to make his third Scotland appearance at inside centre. He’ll play alongside Gloucester’s Chris Harris, meanwhile Worcester Warriors’ winger Duhan van der Merwe also starts.

Darcy Graham will line up on the other wing at the Principality Stadium following his impressive performance against England.

 

Glasgow Warriors’ duo Zander Fagerson and George Turner will start the match on the bench alongside Worcester Warriors’ prop Rory Sutherland and Edinburgh Rugby’s Magnus Bradbury.

 

Glasgow flanker Rory Darge will make his debut for his country if he comes off the bench, following an impressive season so far for the Scotstoun side.

 

Fresh from a dream debut, scrum-half Ben White is once again an option from the bench along with Edinburgh Rugby’s Blair Kinghorn. Bath Rugby’s Cam Redpath will be aiming for his second Scotland cap after his making his Scotland debut against England last year at Twickenham.

 

The Scottish changes area a clear sign that they will look to front up and tough it out in the forwards against Wales during the first half. The bench replacements on 50-60 minutes will give them more opportunities to play a more expansive game in the second stanza.

 

Wales will need to start positively and nail their line out and set piece scrums. If they can retain the ball, then they have a chance to stay in touch. 

 

The combative changes in the back row will add the much-needed physicality to wobble Scotland and Biggar will want to win his centurion game. 

 

Scotland should have enough ball to compete and Duhan Van der Merwe, Finn Russell and Stuart Hogg can breach any defences especially one as porous as Wales have shown in recent matches. 

 

Wales sorely missed their unavailable key players in round one while Scotland look like a team on the rise. They have not won in Cardiff since 2002 but now is good a time as any to end that unwanted record.

 

My heart says Wales will bounce back whilst my head says Scotland to finally break their Cardiff Hoodoo. Scotland by 4 points.

 

Wales 19 Scotland 23

 

 

France v Ireland

 

The championship destination will likely be decided in this encounter in Paris. France at home will be a tough prospect but Ireland will come to the game full of confidence after their exhilarating and dominant display against Wales in Dublin.

 

Les Bleus fulfilled their mission against Italy by winning with a margin Les Bleus of 27 points. This is their biggest margin at home against the Azzuri. The last biggest gap dated from the 2010 Tournament, but all was not perfect. They made a lot of errors in the match and a lot of poor decisions in difficult conditions.

 

At times France looked feverish and clumsy with a distinct lack of fluidity for long periods. Ill-discipline cost them during the early stages as they conceded 5 penalties in the first 25 minutes but somehow, France won with five tries on the board by accelerating at the end of the match. Antoine Dupont had a poor game by his high standards but a hat-trick from Gabin Villiere paved the way to victory in wet conditions for France.

 

France will certainly need to show a lot of improvement to keep their Grand Slam and Championship dreams alive. 

 

Fabien Galthié has made two personnel changes to Les Blues starting XV. There is a change at centre, with Bordeaux’s Yoram Moefana coming into the side at 12, replacing the injured Jonathan Danty, with Gael Fickou moving to 13. Moefana who has impressed in the Top 14 this season, replaces centre Jonathan Danty, who is out with an ankle injury, to earn his first Six Nations start. 

 

Moefana was selected on the bench for the Italy match, and he came on when Danty went off. He is not the physical type of centre, but he is an excellent, promising player and has been a force in Bordeaux strong season. It is a bold selection to pick him to start this level of event and the Irish opposing strength will be a tough ask for an inexperienced player.

 

However, he’s good enough but a lot will be on him, and I would expect Ireland to test him early in the encounter. 

 

François Cros returns in the back row alongside Grégory Alldritt and Anthony Jelonch. The Toulousain replaces Dylan Cretin.

 

in the second row, the versatile Cameron Woki was again chosen to accompany Paul Willemse. Dupont, Ntamack remain the half backs and the front row of Atonio, Marchand, Baille like the back three “rear triangle” of Jaminet, Penaud, Villière are also retained.

 

There is also a change on the replacements bench, with Galthie opting for a 6-2 split, with Dylan Cretin dropping to 21 meaning there is no room for Virimi Vakatawa in the matchday 23. 

 

Fabien Galthié preference is to take six forwards (Mauvaka, Gros, Bamba, Taofifenua, Flament, Cretin) and two backs, including the versatile Thomas Ramos.

 

Continuity in selection is key for the French, who were earmarked as favourites before the competition began, as they face a blistering Irish team on the back of nine consecutive wins. 

 

Saturday’s game at the Stade de France has been described as the crunch game of the tournament with the two most in form teams clashing and the winner one step closer to silverware.

 

Ireland will travel to Paris in good heart and with confidence of repeating their recent good record in the French capital and continue their winning ways in this year’s competition. Having gone through a short transitional phase under head coach Andy Farrell, 2018 Grand Slam champions Ireland are beginning to look the real deal again after an outstanding autumn, which included glory against New Zealand and the Pivacaust annihilation of Wales last weekend. 

 

The speed and fluidity of Ireland’s passing, their physical presence and strong discipline will certainly cause French coach Fabian Galthie a few sleepless nights this week.

 

The big news is talismanic outside half Johnny Sexton has been ruled out due to a hamstring injury.

 

Ireland captain Sexton sustained the injury in training yesterday, which means Joey Carbery starts at fly-half and is partnered by Jamison Gibson-Park at half-back. The out-half is the only change to the side that beat Wales 29-7 last weekend.

 

It will be Munster fly-half's Carbery's first every start in the Six Nations. The 26-year-old has won 28 caps for his country, starting eight times.

 

The centre partnership of Bundee Aki and Garry Ringrose continues in midfield.

 

Hugo Keenan continues at full-back with Andrew Conway, scorer of two tries last Saturday on the right wing. Connacht's Mack Hansen is on the opposite side following his man of the match display on his international debut against Wales.

 

James Ryan will be the new captain of the side and is joined at lock by Tadhg Beirne. Leinster trio Caelan Doris, Josh van der Flier and Jack Conan form the back row with Andrew Porter, Ronan Kelleher and Tadhg Furlong completing the front-row.

 

Iain Henderson, Robbie Henshaw, and Jack Carty are added to the replacements for the France clash joining Dan Sheehan, Cian Healy, Finlay Bealham, Peter O’Mahony and Conor Murray.

 

The loss of Sexton is a massive blow to Irish chances in Paris but a six-day turnaround for France, plus their undercooked performance against Italy, fatigue plus little chance to work on team performance puts them potentially on the back foot against Ireland. 

 

I remain confident that this will be the highest quality game this year in the tournament, and I am looking forward immensely to the confrontation. 

 

Referee Angus Gardner has a reputation for being a bit of a “homer” – favouring the hon=me side and its certainly true that Ireland have only won twice in the five matches he has officiated them. Certainly, discipline for both sides will eb key

 

Ireland’s game plan should be quite simple.  Keep Dupont quiet, harass the French pack into con ceding penalties and things could be good.

 

If France can control the scrums and the breakdown then they have enough quality in their back line to win this match. Carbury is not Sexton and is still finding his feet at the top level. Ireland’s discipline – not conceding a penalty for 54 minutes was outstanding although Jaco Peyper’s interpretations of the scrum left many scratching their heads. Andrew Porter seemed to really struggle against Tomas Francis but miraculously avoided being penalised however, the French front row can be ferocious with the crowd behind them and winning the set pieces will be key for both teams.

 

Dupont needs a far stronger game than last week. France had a warmup last week against Italy and will surely be better when the Irish come to town. Ireland barely had to get out of third gear to beat Wales, yet still looked like a well-oiled machine.

 

Ireland will give it a real effort in one of their toughest tests of Farrell's reign so far.  In the end it could come down to infringes most and penalty kicks but expect a few exhilarating tries in the encounter but France, at home, will just have too much firepower for them. 

 

Tough to call. France by 3 points. 

 

Still, one loss is not necessarily the end for Ireland's tournament hopes in what is shaping up to be one of the tightest championships for years.

 

France 23 Ireland 20

 

 

Italy v England

 

The weekend’s final encounter on Sunday will see England travel to Rome to facing a surprisingly improved Italy.

 

The Azzuri looked more impressive than might be expected of a side that have now lost their last 33 Six Nations encounters, and their performance was better than the final score suggested, there is plenty to build on ahead of the encounter against England.

 

The Azzurri gave it a real go and stunned the Stade de France early on when 19-year-old Tommaso Menoncello touched down, but the hosts hit back and eventually emerged with a comfortable win. Kieran Crowley has picked another young gun in his Italy squad for this weekend’s Six Nations clash with England, the Azzurri announcing Andrea Zambonin’s inclusion on Monday.

 

Zebre Parma second row forward Zambonin, 21, is yet to play for Italy’s senior side, which has been flooded with fresh blood by former New Zealand international Crowley.

 

Brive prop Pietro Ceccarelli returns to the squad alongside Giacomo Da Re and Zambonin’s Zebre teammates David Sisi and Pierre Bruno.

 

For England, after defeat in Edinburgh in a game they were controlling, it has once again raised significant questions of Eddie Jones’s decision making and game management. 

 

England have only got themselves to blame. They can only be massively disappointed that they lost after they dominated a lot of the game but didn’t get the points out of the domination. Luke Cowan-Dickie’s brainfart costing a yellow card and penalty try didn’t help but when you are seven points ahead with 17 minutes to go and dominating – England teams typically don’t go on to lose.

 

Jones’s decision to take off Marcus Smith who had scored all England’s points at 63 minutes was mind-blowingly stupid and we’re still wondering why on earth he did it. Smith’s withdrawal was just one of several bizarre in-game calls from the Red Rose head coach. Lewis Ludlam was another player that was outstanding – arguably the pick of the forwards – ridiculously replaced after a barnstorming effort. 

 

A third error came when England had a lineout on their own five-metre line but decided not to bring on Jamie George when Cowan-Dickie was in the sin-bin. The result? A botched throw from Joe Marler, a penalty at the resultant scrum and Finn Russell‘s match-winning three-pointer.

At the end of the day rugby is a simple game – if you dominate you must get points on the board and you must get enough to be in front of the opposition at the final whistle.

 

As Rugby raconteur goes to press neither team has been named. 

Courtney Lawes remains absent from the squad as he goes through the return-to-play protocols from a concussion that he suffered playing for Northampton against Ulster on January 16. Tom Curry will continue to captain England in Lawes’ absence.

 

Lawes has begun running and lifting weights but has yet to resume full-contact training. His absence, together with that of Northampton flanker Lewis Ludlam, who suffered a rib injury in the 20-17 defeat to Scotland, has opened the door for the uncapped Chessum to come into the squad, which has 16 forwards including nine front-rowers. 

 

That effectively guarantees Chessum, whom Jones has compared to Lawes for his ability to cover lock and blindside flanker, a spot on the bench at the very least. To start at blindside, Jones could also turn to Nick Isiewke, with Charlie Ewels coming into the second row, or Alex Dombrandt, who is normally a specialist No 8.

 

England are the only team Italy are yet to beat in the history of the Six Nations and with Eddie Jones' side going through something of a reboot, this is the best chance the Azzurri will ever have of bloodying the English nose - but don't expect it to happen, even in Rome.

 

A week after his Six Nations debut against one of the game’s best-attacking talents, Marcus Smith will face another strong test in Italy’s Paolo Garbisi. The Italian is younger than Smith but with 14 caps to his name, is more experienced in the international arena. Both players like to bring attacking flair that can unlock even the tightest of defences. We have already seen in this tournament that they can create magic.

 

However, the deciding factor here may prove to be which 10 can read the flow of the game best and know when to kick to marshal their team around the field effectively. Italy showed a lack of ability to gain territory against the French with only 35%. England had the lion’s share in their game with 62% against the Scots, largely thanks to England’s halfback pairing. This could prove critical on the weekend where another week together means defences will be more organised and in a greater position to punish errors in the opposition’s half.

 

Both teams had a 100% success rate at scrums last week and near-perfect lineouts too; so, this will be an area both teams will be targeting to try and gain the upper hand. England has the upper hand when it comes to experience. Last week’s starting front row had over 100 caps between them compared to an Italian front row that didn’t even total 50, add in Joe Marler on the bench and England will believe they have the nous to gain an edge here.

 

The Italian pack will not be a walkover for England though, especially in Rome. We have seen the impact a crowd can have on a game and the Italians are a proud nation who will not roll over easily. They have a coach now who is used to getting the underdog to overperform in Kieran Crowley and the Italians did see the referee’s whistle go their way on occasion as well.

 

Furthermore, Italy is now showing they can go the full 80 minutes in the set piece. In previous years when the likes of Castrogiovanni have left the field, Italy has struggled. Now though they can stay with teams for the full match as the fitness of players improves along with the depth of their playing squad. Even with last year’s starting tighthead, Marco Riccioni, out injured, Italy is still able to call on some talented players. Zilocchi who helped Italy to their best-ever finish at an Under 20s World Championship in 2017 is a great example.

 

Discipline will be one of the deciding factors for Sunday’s game. A string of penalties conceded could see the opposition flyhalf continue to knock over penalties and before you know it the game is out of sight. Both teams will be pleased with only conceding 10 penalties last weekend. The yellow card though to Luke Cowan-Dickie may take the shine off somewhat for England.

 

However, both teams will need to tighten up their work at the breakdown. Referees are being much sharper on the tackler rolling away allowing a fair contest for the ball. Other areas that referees are tightening up on include entering a ruck. This means that players must enter from behind the ball, and they must do so whilst supporting their body weight. Again, this is to ensure a fair contest and player welfare. Supporting players of each team need to make sure they arrive quickly to the breakdown to ensure possession. Moreover, arriving quickly means a faster ball, the ability to play against a less organised defence and more attacking chances.

 

I expect England to bounce back from their disappointment at Murrayfield and run ragged through a tiring Italian side in the 2nd half and win quite comfortably. Normal service resumed.

 

Italy 13 England 37

 

 

 

Guinness Six Nations 2022 Round 1 Previews – Into the fire…

After all the waiting and build-up – it’s now time for the rubber to hit the road in the 2022 Guinness Six Nations. The first weekend sees three opening encounters which could seal the fate of two of the teams at this early stage. Coming back from an opening defeat is extremely challenging given the tight schedule ahead of them. A winning start is also crucial to morale and momentum. 

Who will triumph in Round 1?  Let your Rugby raconteur be your guide to the weekend’s encounters:

 

Ireland v Wales 

Ireland has the perfect opening fixture draw at home as they welcome Wales to the Aviva Stadium in Dublin. They will be looking to avenge last year’s catastrophe in Cardiff where Peter O’Mahony made unwanted history by becoming the first Irishman to be sent off in the Guinness Six Nations when he made contact with the head of Tomas Francis trying to clear out a ruck on 13 minutes, giving referee Wayne Barnes no option but to brandish a red card.

 

Wales saw out the courageous Irish challenge from the remaining 14 men before eventually running out 21-16 winners with a strong second half showing. 

 

Ireland followed up the defeat in Cardiff losing at home to France and this rocky start led to a seriously under whelming Six Nations Championship for Andy Farrell’s side. The early losses effectively knocked the Irish out of Championship contention, rendering their final three wins as dead rubbers.

 

This time, Ireland come into the game as overwhelming favourites with the bookies offering 1/10 on for a home victory with a 14 point minimum spread. And why not! Ireland’s Autumn form has been very strong and this has carried forward with the provincial sides in both URC and Champions Cup.  

 

Against this background, Andy Farrell has named a strong and experienced side with few surprises. Connacht winger Mack Hansen will make his Ireland debut following a string of standout displays for the province.

 

The Australia-born 23-year-old, whose mother is Irish, has been selected on the left flank in place of the injured James Lowe 

 

Tadhg Beirne will start in the second row ahead of Iain Henderson in the only other change to the team which began November’s 29-20 win over New Zealand.

 

Ulster captain Henderson has not played since suffering an ankle issue playing for his province on December 17 and does not make Andy Farrell’s 23-man selection.

 

Centre Robbie Henshaw has also been left out of the matchday squad, with fellow British and Irish Lion Bundee Aki given the nodded to partner Garry Ringrose in midfield.

Ulster centre James Hume has been included on the bench ahead of Henshaw. He and fellow replacement Dan Sheehan could make championship debuts.

Influential fly-half Johnny Sexton will once more captain his country on the occasion of his 102nd cap, with Jamison Gibson-Park again preferred to Conor Murray at scrum-half.

 

Full-back Hugo Keenan – starting his 17th consecutive Test match – and right wing Andrew Conway complete the backs.

 

Farrell’s forward pack has a familiar look to it, with Munster second-rower Beirne the only non-Leinster player.

 

Vice-captain James Ryan, who has not played for 10 weeks amid hamstring troubles, will partner Beirne in the lock positions, while props Andrew Porter and Tadhg Furlong have been selected either side of hooker Ronan Kelleher in an established front row.

 

Jack Conan will line up at number eight, sandwiched between blindside flanker Caelan Doris and openside Josh van der Flier.

 

Hume, Sheehan and Murray are joined on the bench by forwards Cian Healy, Finlay Bealham, Ryan Baird, Peter O’Mahony and fly-half Joey Carbery.

 

What of their opponents – Wales?  The good news for Wayne Pivac is that no supporter with red tinted glasses is expecting victory. Wales haven’t won in the Six Nations in Dublin since 2012 and the focus is likely to be more on keeping the score respectable with a losing bonus point being probably the best prize Wales can (vainly) hope for.

 

Wayne Pivac has been struggling with selections given his injury situation and has named a surprising team with flying winger Josh Adams named at outside centre. 

 

Adams, who has won 35 caps and was top try-scorer at the 2019 World Cup, would have featured there in the Autumn Nations Series appointment with Fiji this season, but he suffered an injury during the warm-up and did not start.

 

The recent hamstring injury picked up by Uilisi Halaholo has added to the long term absences of the backbone of the recent Welsh sides with Alun Wyn-Jones, Josh Navidi, George North, Ken Owens, Leigh Halfpenny, Taulupe 

Adams is joined with Nick Tompkins in the centres with Johnny McNicholl recalled on the wing to form a strong back three with bomb defuser Liam Williams and the exciting Louis Rees-Zammit. 

 

LRZ has been especially impressive with his finishing lately for Gloucester and if Wales can get the ball in his hands with some space then they still an attacking edge to worry Ireland.

 

Dan Biggar is named as captain and will be joined at half back by Tomos Williams.

 

In the pack, Wyn Jones is recalled at loose head prop and forms an experienced front row with Ryan Elias and Thomas Francis. 

 

Adam Beard and Will Rowlands form the engine room in 2nd row with Ellis Jenkins, Taine Basham and Aaron Wainwright forming a strong back row who are all masters of the jackal and turnover. 

 

The big worry is where are the ball carriers. Ross Moriarty is an important option off the bench and poised to win his 50th cap, with Gareth Thomas, Dewi Lake and Dillon Lewis the front row change and Seb Davies the other forward option with Callum Sheedy, Gareth Davies and Owen Watkin the back replacements. Osprey Lake is the only uncapped player in the team. 

 

But there is no place in the matchday 23 for centre Jonathan Davies, who has made 99 Test match appearances for Wales and the British and Irish Lions.

 

Wales haven’t won in Dublin since 2012 and they always somehow seem to bring out the best in Ireland. Wales have claimed a solitary victory from their last seven visits to the Aviva Stadium, and they will encounter a cock-a-hoop Ireland side fresh from toppling New Zealand just over two months ago.

 

The game will be won or lost in the forwards. Wales certainly have not been convincing in set pieces and will struggle for ball. I think Wales have missed a trick not adding Shane Lewis-Hughes and Jim Botham to their squad as both were impressive last week against Leinster and their defensive qualities may well have been a better option against a massively strong Irish pack. Ireland will want to grind out penalties and will want to run at Adams and Tompkins as an untried and untested centre pairing. 

 

Ireland is still shell-shocked from their loss in Cardiff in 2021 and will want to put the record straight. As the Six Nations’ defending champions, Wales come into this Test with plenty of pride and passion. Although they will be competitive, especially during the early exchanges, Ireland will gain the upper hand as the match progresses and will prove too strong in the end and Wales will face a real thumping. 

 

Ireland win at a cantor..

 

Ireland 40 Wales 17

 

 

Scotland v England

 

The 129th Calcutta Cup match in Edinburgh has rugby supporters of all persuasions licking their lips with anticipation. The Calcutta Cup was first competed for in 1879, Scotland has won it 41 times and England 71, with 16 ties. 

 

Scotland were superb last year at Twickenham when they finally broke their 37 year winless streak at HQ running out deserved winners in a tight 11-6 victory. Scotland’s recent Calcutta Cup form is rather better than history reflects with them holding the trophy 3 times in the past four encounters.

 

The return of spectators to Murrayfield could prove to be a strong advantage to Scotland’s chance of continuing that winning trend in 2022. The Scottish supporters have no love lost for the “Auld enemy” and Edinburgh will be a cauldron of nationalist fervour hoping to send proud Edwards Jones’s army home to think again. 

 

Scotland’s fighting spirit and ever-improving brand of attacking rugby is becoming somewhat of an X-factor in the tournament while England are a somewhat unknown quantity at the moment due to the sweeping changes since the last Six Nations.

 

Gregor Townsend has named his team to face England that contains three changes from the XV that started the closing Autumn Nations Series win over Japan at Murrayfield eleven weeks ago. 

 

After missing out on the Autumn Nations Series matches through injury, Exeter Chiefs’ Jonny Gray makes his return to the starting line up for the first time since March 2021 when he played against Ireland. He is joined by Edinburgh’s Grant Gilchrist in the second-row, who will be one appearance away from reaching 50 caps after stepping out against England.

 

He takes over from Scott Cummings in the second row.

Elsewhere, Worcester prop Rory Sutherland is named after playing in all of last year’s Six Nations matches, taking over the unavailable Jamie Bhatti, while Matt Fagerson comes into the back row at the expense of Josh Bayliss. Elsewhere, the XV is as you were from last November.    

Edinburgh duo Jamie Ritchie and Hamish Watson will combine with Matt Fagerson from Glasgow Warriors in the back-row.

 

Racing 92’s Finn Russell and Glasgow Warrior Ali Price will partner each other at nine and 10 respectively for the fourth consecutive game, while Worcester’s Duhan van der Merwe starts on the wing. Darcy Graham will be on the opposite flank following impressive form with Edinburgh which sees them currently top the United Rugby Championship table.

Gloucester’s Chris Harris and Glasgow’s Sam Johnson are set to combine in the centre once again, with captain Stuart Hogg starting at full-back in his ninth Calcutta Cup match.

 

On the bench, London Irish scrum-half Ben White will have the opportunity to make his Scotland debut with Edinburgh’s Blair Kinghorn and Glasgow’s Sione Tuipulotu other options in the backs.

Also in the replacements, Magnus Bradbury could make his first appearance for Scotland since 2020 with Sam Skinner, WP Nel, Pierre Schoeman and Stuart McInally all named on the bench.

 

For England – this is always a tough fixture. 7C temperatures, 50% probability of rain and strong west south-west winds will make it a difficult place to pay open running rugby. After a disastrous 2021 campaign, the Jones has decided to freshen up the squad as they attempt to regain the title they last won in 2020. Expectations are always high in the England camp and they cannot afford to repeat the dreadful 2021 Championship where they fell well below the required standards as they equalled their worst-ever championship finish in 5th place.

 

If England are to challenge for the title, then a victory over Scotland in their opening game is paramount. That is easier said than done, given the Scots’ victory at Twickenham last year and how Gregor Townsend has improved the quality of his Scottish squad over recent years, but it is by no means not an impossible dream.

 

Eddie Jones has picked a young exciting team for the trip to Murrayfield. that shows seven changes from the XV that started the Autumn Nations Series finale win over South Africa at Twickenham eleven weeks ago. 

The big headline is the selection of Tom Curry as Captain. Lawes has struggled to overcome a concussion suffered last month while on European duty for his club Northampton, while regular skipper Owen Farrell hasn’t played any rugby since the mid-series win over Australia and has since been ruled out of the entire championship following a second ankle operation.

 

Curry is names at openside flanker and is the only back row survivor from the Springbok encounter with Lewis Ludlam at blindside flanker and Sam Simmonds is their number eight.

 

International veteran Ben Youngs is at scrum-half with the exciting Marcus Smith outside him at 10 while Saracens’ Elliot Daly is a shock pick at outside centre forming a new partnership with Henry Slade.

 

Joe Marchant has returned to the line-up after completing Covid isolation protocols at left wing, with Max Malins on the right and the adventurous Freddie Steward at full-back.

 

Up front, Kyle Sinckler sand Ellis Genge start at props with Luke Cowan-Dickie given the nod over Jamie George at hooker.  Maro Itoje and Nick Isiekwe the locks.  Isiekwe takes over at second row for Jonny Hill, whose lower leg/high ankle stress fracture left him unavailable.

 

Jamie George, Joe Marler, Will Stuart, Charlie Ewels, Alex Dombrandt, Harry Randall, George Ford and Jack Nowell are the replacements.

 

Eyebrows may be raised that  the in-form Alex Dombrandt is not starting but Simmonds has been a strong performer all season and deserves the chance after being cruelly overlooked in past Jones’ teams line-ups.

 

Marcus Smith has bene sensational this season at 10 and gets the nod over George Ford who is recalled to the bench and can expect to have to face a tough last 20 minutes in Edinburgh. 

 

Daley is a surprise at centre and Scotland will want to challenge him. England’s scrum should be strong and stable with Genge and Sinkler whilst Cowen-Dickie is a great leader at the maul and a good ball carrier. 

 

Steward, Malins, Smith, Marchant and Isiekwe are all making their first appearances in Scotland and Jones has to hope they won’t be overwhelmed by the raucous anti-English crowd sentiment. Murrayfield can be a horrible place to make mistakes. 

 

With the English squad hampered by injury and with a partisan Murrayfield crowd powering Scottish emotion, this Six Nations match sees the home team as marginal favourites. 

 

While a lot of attention on the #10's, it might be just be the Fullbacks who decide this Kickfest.

 

In naming a side with a combined total of 562 Scotland caps Gregor Townsend has picked a Calcutta Cup team long on experience but, more importantly, one which has learned how to win big games.

Scotland have every reason to feel confident rather than nervous. They have a near full strength team, playing at home, their supporters are allowed to watch the game, preparations have been ok and you have a coach who selects on form.

 

England meanwhile are selecting people on past reputation, out of position or in defiance of logic (Ben Youngs - too slow, Daly/Slade - no bulk in the centres, wingers out of position, not starting Dombrandt. They have been decimated by injuries and English preparations have been an absolute nightmare

 

I reckon it will be a fast and exciting game, one that will be tight and one that will be decided on a few slim margins, but I have a good feeling about this and I’m calling Scotland by one score

 

 

Scotland 19 England 17

 

France v Italy

 

The final game on Sunday sees the reborn Les Bleus at home again facing Italy. As Rugby Raconteur goes to press – neither team has been announced but Fabien has given some indications by releasing 14 players back to their clubs this weekend.

 

France have a near perfect campaign: two games at home, two away and a grand finale versus England in Paris which allows them the blend of peak and trough to build their performances throughout the tournament.

 

There’s no doubt whatsoever that France have the firepower to score against any defence in the world, but question marks remain over their scrummage and their temperament.

 

Make no mistake about it, this is a pivotal year for France and they cannot afford anything but a clean sweep.

 

France coach Fabien Galthie has trimmed his squad down to 28 players ahead of the match against Italy on Sunday, releasing 14 players back to the Top 14.

 

There are several experienced players thus not in contention for the tournament opener against Italy, with perhaps the most surprising release that of Racing centre Virimi Vakatawa.

 

The released players are a 50-50 mix of forwards and backs, including four back-row players: Paul Boudehent, Ibrahim Diallo, Yoan Tanga and Sekou Macalou, two locks: Thomas Lavault and Florian Verhaege, and prop Jérôme Rey.

 

In the backs, three wings: Mathis Lebel, Jules Favre and Donovan Taofifenua, centres Vakatawa and Tani Vili, half-back Antoine Hastoy and utility back Brice Dulin are released.

 

Since the organisers brought in four points for a win and also the addition of try/losing bonus-points, Italy have claimed a grand total of one competition point, way back in 2018. It came in an extremely narrow 29-27 defeat to Scotland and since then their performances have been dreadful.

It was no different in 2021 as they were dominated in pretty much every match they played. It was tough to watch as a neutral so it’s hard to imagine what it has been like for an Italian supporter over the past few years.

 

A real issue for Italy over recent seasons has been the decline in their forward play. Gone are the days of Martin Castrogiovanni and Sergio Parisse – albeit the latter is determined to have one final send off – who kept scores close and sometimes edged them over the line. The irony is that they are now starting to produce talented backs, who are being hampered by a lack of quality ball from their pack.

 

Crowley needs to find the players in the forwards which can compete at this level, especially in the front five. He can rely on back-row trio Sebastian Negri, Braam Steyn and Michele Lamaro to produce consistent high level displays, but the head coach will want more from Zebre Parma props Danilo Fischetti and Giosue Zilocchi, who will hopefully give Negri, Braam and Lamaro the platform to carry across the gain line.

 

Both Fischetti and Zilocchi have shown glimpses of their quality but not on a consistent basis and, at the age or 24 and 25 respectively, this could be the year which decides whether they are, quite frankly, good enough for Test rugby.

 

Someone who does have that international class is Paolo Garbisi, with the 21-year-old already an established player in the team. As intimated, we haven’t necessarily seen the best of him – or his talented backline colleagues – due to the pack’s struggles, but give Garbisi front foot ball and watch him thrive.

 

France come off the back of 4 straight victories and Italy too come to the game on the back of a rare win with a narrow 17-10 victory over Uruguay at Rome in November.

 

Plenty of credit must go to France, who looked a vastly improved side from their struggles at the Rugby World Cup. Charles Ollivon, who is already looking calm and assured in his role as captain; was excellent in his new role as captain, whilst Gregory Alldritt and Bernard Le Roux shone alongside him as leaders by example in the pack. 

 

The French half backs was excellent. Antoine Duponte and Romain Ntamack are two high quality players and were a great blend with the latter player achieving a 100% goal kick accuracy. They are different and, at the same time, complementary. In the kicking-game at a time when there was no domination, the animation between them was good and France’s exciting and powerful back line had no trouble shutting down England defensively, in addition to their obvious attacking ability.

 

At the same time, France have room for improvement. This match will give them plenty of material to work with in all areas and sectors of the game. They can especially be more effective in game management. 

 

The truth is that France caused their own trouble in the second half. The first part of their match was pretty solid, but it was when they started to make substitutions, that the team was destabilized. At 24-0, they chose to make changes and there they lost their way almost letting England back into the match. They need to win comfortably and dreams of a first championship since 2010 could become a realty!  

 

To be frank, Italy will do well to get within 10 points of any team they face, but if they can then it will be marked down as progress.

 

This match has forgone conclusion written all over it. In years gone by, you could make an argument for France doing a France and imploding, but not now. Not this team. Not with Shaun Edwards marshalling the defence.

 

France will run out comfortable winners with a bonus point.

 

France 50 Italy 10