The brief flurry
of excitement which is the Six Nations – comes to a conclusion this weekend
with the final round of matches. As Rugby Raconteur predicted in the Season’s
preview; Congratulations to Ireland who have finally knocked England off the
champions perch with a deserved title in style with one round of matches still to
complete.
Joe Schmidt’s
team have clearly been the most exciting to watch and have rode their luck but
are truly deserved champions. Since losing to Wales in Cardiff last year – they
have now gone 11 matches unbeaten and have not lost a Six Nations match in
Dublin since 2010.
For the chasing
pack there is still the important matter of where they finish in the final
table. With England rapidly imploding after a second consecutive defeat, Wales
have risen to second place and if they can beat the fast-improving French then
second place will be a notable achievement for Warren Gatland and Wales.
It’s also a case
of finances. Wales have a £3.3m carrot dangling in front of them when they face
France in the Six Nations finale at the Principality Stadium on Saturday.
That’s how much the Welsh Rugby Union will bank if Warren Gatland’s team finish
runners-up to already crowned champions Ireland. But defeat could see them drop
to fifth in the table and lose out on £2m.
Three cracking
final matches ahead of us and despite Ireland’s title win – there is still the
small matter of Grand Slam and Triple Crown titles to aim for. In Cheltenham
festival week with the St. Paddy’s Day finale on Saturday – let’s review the
runners and riders on the final 2018 Six Nations race card:
Italy v Scotland
This game usually
is the Wooden Spoon decider but with Scotland having given creditable accounts
of themselves in almost all matches this championship – one has to assume they
will not fear the March sunshine in Rome this season.
For Conor
O’Shea’s Italy, the final whistle of the final match probably can’t come soon
enough. Italy have been woeful this season. The wonderful Sergio Parisse has
now reached the amazing milestone of 133 caps over a 16-year international
career but is rapidly also closing on the unwelcome statistic of 100 test
defeats in those matches. He stands currently at 99 defeats but it will take a
miracle for that milestone not to be reached at the Stadio Olimpico this
Saturday.
This is Italy’s
19th season in the Six Nations and close to being their worst. Against Wales
they faced a virtual second team who also had two yellow cards and yet Italy
once again were humbled with a 24-point margin of defeat bringing their points
against total to 174 points with a -109 points difference. It could have been
different if Italy could have found the formula to penetrate the solid Welsh
defence. By the half-time whistle the Italy had enjoyed 61% possession and
forced Wales into making 81 tackles, almost double the amount the visitors had
to produce.
To put it bluntly
Italy dictated the tempo and the pattern up to that stage and looked anything
but tournament whipping boys.
Italy's trouble
as in previous matches, was that they saved their most profligate rugby for the
attacking third where they lacked the killer edge to turn possession into
points.
The excellent
full-back Matteo Minozzi, scored a wonderful try courtesy of some inventive
Azzurri play but also two poor missed tackles by Liam Williams and Gareth
Davies. Italy throughout the half displayed plenty of intent but were also
over-ambitious and over complex in their finishing.
Perhaps the most
depressing footnote for Italy boss Conor O'Shea was his side's failure to
trouble the scoreboard during the 20 minutes they were playing against a side
with a man in the sin-bin. That I’m afraid is simply unacceptable and not good
enough at this level.
O’Shea is
building for the future and Italy U20’s win over Wales shows there might be a
brighter future on the horizon but for this final match – Italy need to be
competitive and give a better account of themselves at home against Scotland.
As we go to
press, O’Shea hadn’t named his side but I expect few changes.
With Maxime
Mbanda ruled out of the game, O'Shea will have to change his openside flanker
for the third time in the campaign.
Abraham Steyn and
Renato Giammarioli have already started in the position, and the former
returned to the squad this week.
He would be the
most experienced contender to come into the side, although Giovanni Licata, the
former Italy Under-20 captain, was the bench option in Cardiff.
Uncapped Jake
Polledri, who has been a standout for Gloucester this year, could also come
into contention for his first cap. Whichever way he goes, O'Shea is not short
of options to start alongside breakout player Sebastian Negri and captain
Sergio Parisse.
Along with Steyn,
Tommaso Boni made his return to the squad this week after missing the trip to
Wales through injury.In his absence, Giulio Bisegni stepped into a starting
role, but Boni could slot back in alongside teammate and namesake Tommaso
Castello.
The pair had
started the first three games of the Championship together, and had done well
in the absence of the injured Michele Campagnaro.
O'Shea has been
fairly consistent with his selection over the course of the Championship, with
the only major changes coming in the front row where Andrea Lovotti and
Leonardo Ghiraldini have alternated with Nicola Quaglio and Luca Bigi.
The Irishman
could be tempted to mix that front row up again, while the likes of Carlo Canna
and Jayden Hayward will also be pushing for a start having been used off the
bench so far.
Gregor Townsend
will look back at the competition and think of what might have been had
Scotland taken the chances they created. The game in Dublin against Ireland
followed a now familiar pattern.
Scotland were very competitive in all aspects
but didn’t take their chances. That lack of clinical finishing is what
separates the men from the boys and winners from losers.
Scotland will look back with frustration at a
number of opportunities squandered, with poor passing in two-on-ones
contributing heavily to a failure to cash in on what was, in many areas,
another competitive display from the visitors. Ireland were knocked out of
their stride for periods of the game but were far more ruthless, devouring all
of the opportunities that came their way in stark contrast to the opposition.
Scotland now lie
fifth after four matches, but they still have the opportunity to climb to third
with a victory in Rome. Surprisingly Gregor Townsend has taken the opportunity
to shuffle his deck with five changes in his team.
Townsend has named
an experienced side for the trip to Rome in the hope of securing a third win of
the Championship, having recorded victories over France and England at
Murrayfield.
Glasgow Warriors
Winger Tommy Seymour returns after a back injury kept him out of the 28-8 loss
to Ireland, in the back three alongside Stuart Hogg and Sean Maitland with the
exciting prospect Blair Kinghorn returning to the bench. It’s an all Warriors
line-up in the centres with Nick Grigg, being handed his first Six Nations
starting place in the backline, alongside Huw Jones, with another Scotstoun
team-mate, Pete Horne, joining the replacements.
Townsend has
shuffled his pack, with hooker Fraser Brown, tighthead prop Willem Nel and lock
Tim Swinson all promoted to the starting XV at the expense of Edinburgh trio
Stuart McInally, Simon Berghan and Grant Gilchrist. McInally retains his spot
in the 23-man matchday squad, joining the replacements.
Lock Richie Gray
has returned to the Scotland matchday fold after not featuring
for his country in over a year. Gray joins Zander Fagerson, amongst
the replacements having recovered from calf and foot injuries respectively,
come in for Swinson and Nel on the bench for their first involvement in this
year’s tournament.
Italy have shown
an attacking edge in all their games and after years of no real threequarters,
they finally have some attacking players of note who can cause holes to appear
in any defensive line up. What they are lacking is steel upfront and an ability
to get quick ball. Scotland are similar in many ways. They have dangerous backs
but haven’t capitalised on them in almost all matches.
I expect Scotland
will control; and dominate this match but O’Shea is a canny operator and he
will no doubt be looking to bring Matteo Minozzi and Bellini into the attack in
as many opportunities as possible.
I don’t see a
fairytale ending though for Italy and Scotland will win quite comfortable in
the end.
Italy 17 Scotland
27
England v Ireland
It’s extremely
hard not to use old and tired cliques but I won’t let you down and the wheels
have most definitely fallen off the England chariot over the past two matches.
Just what has gone wrong for England?
Actually, I think
it started to go wrong last season. They were outplayed by Wales in Cardiff
before Jonathan Davies’s loose and erratic kick threw it all away in the final
minutes. They were dumbfounded by Italy and fell apart in Dublin. This season
we have seen similar traits. Wales were unlucky not to come back and get more
than a losing bonus point at Twickenham and quite honestly England were woeful
against both Scotland and France.
They have failed
to come to grips with the refereeing. The penalty counts against Scotland (13)
and France (16) will make alarming reading for Eddie Jones. England have now conceded 47 penalties with
only Italy conceding more (49). By contrast, Champions Ireland have only
conceded 22 penalties with Wales next up with 30.
You simply can’t
expect to win with penalty stats like that.
England look jaded and have clearly lost direction and ideas. They look
predictable in attack and weak at the breakdown. Eddie Jones is a coach who
works his players hard and he has been talking up England’s lack of intensity
and says they must work harder to put right their mistakes.
There’s no
escaping how tired and how flat England look. England’s failure to
adapt to situations in-game – whether here or at Murrayfield, in defence or
attack – does serious damage to their World Cup credentials. They need to be
able to think on their feet, not work to a constrained game plan, and we have
seen little to show they are capable of that in this championship.
Usually
effervescent talents like Jamie George, Launchbury, Mako Vunipola, Maro Itoje,
Ben Te’o and Anthony Watson don’t currently look like the match-winners that
they have been before and undoubtedly will be again. The runners close to the
ruck were easy to read whereas the likes of Jonny May and Anthony Watson ran
into contact more often than space – and those around showed little awareness
of what their team-mates were going to do and there were no players in support
to take a pass should one have been offered.
There appeared to
be little cohesion or understanding about what they were trying to do or how
they were planning to break down the blue wall in front of them. So much for
the “pace” of this back three – Watson, May and Elliot Daly – bringing a new
spark to the England attack. Instead, they looked bereft of ideas, lacking
direction and fluency.
Elliot Daly’s
return to the team was the one positive, with both his one-touch offload to
Jonny May for a try and his long-range penalty
giving England much-needed attacking creativity and ways of
influencing the game. Notably, he has come off a lengthy injury and one which
has allowed him some recuperation time.
Kyle Sinckler is
another player who has returned after a lengthy suspension. He looked sharp and
impactful off the bench, as did Joe Marler, in the brief cameo he got. James
Haskell, another recently sidelined by injury, presented a more powerful
carrying option than second row Joe Launchbury when he was brought on, too.
After the debacle
in Paris, England head coach Eddie Jones has performed significant surgery on
the team and makes seven changes in his side to play Ireland.
Big story is at
outside half. George Ford has really struggled to influence the games in
Edinburgh and Paris and whilst he is a very astute fly-half, I have
never been convinced that he is the right option for England. Jones has chosen
to move Owen Farrell back to 10 and use his talents to run the back line by himself, as he used to
do for England and still does for Saracens.
Farrell will be
joined by Saracens club mate Richard Wigglesworth and in a new look halfback
pairing.
The Captain Dylan
Hartley returns after recovering from injury with tighthead prop Kyle Sinckler
making his first start of the campaign after his impressive short cameo against
France.
Saracens lock
George Kruis replaces the ineffective Joe Launchbury and will partner Maro
Itoje in the second row while James Haskell will start at open side flanker
with Chris Robshaw moving to the blindside.
Sam Simmonds is
recalled at No.8 as Nathan Hughes and Courtney Lawes are both ruled out with
injury.
Ben Te’o moves to
inside centre with Jonathan Joseph recalled at outside centre.
Exeter Chief No.8
Don Armand is named as a finisher in what is otherwise an experienced bench for
England.
Just a third
Grand Slam in Irish history can be claimed at the home of English rugby on
Saturday. Ireland are worthy champions but Joe Schmidt will know how hard it is
to win as an away team at Twickenham but his team will arrive in the Nation’s
capital full of confidence and the players won’t fear a wounded Rose at HQ. The
starting XV against Scotland contained 9 former Lions. They are the backbone of
this Irish team with experience in abundance, they are all leaders and are an
inspiration to the younger players in the side.
Clearly with
England on the rack, this is not the worst moment for an Ireland team to head
to south-west London with a grand slam at stake and history beckoning. The
Irish winning game plan is based around minimal mistakes. In terms of retaining
possession, Ireland have clearly set the bar in the competition by some
distance.
It's a fair point
to say that this will be a real test of Irish resolve. But this team is now
used to winning and winning well. They do not sit back when they go ahead and
they take each game as it comes. Ireland have beaten all the big boys over the
last two years or so and their mix of youth, experience and strength in depth
is on a level like no other northern hemisphere nation. The only thing that
should stop a grand slam is nerves or complacency. Both of which I know Joe
Schmidt will not tolerate this week.
Lock Iain
Henderson is the only change to the Ireland team to face England in Saturday's
Grand Slam clash.
The Ulster second
row comes in for Devin Toner, who drops to the bench, as boss Joe Schmidt opted
to keep changes to a minimum.
Joe Schmidt had a
full deck to pick from with the camp confirming that they had no injury concerns
in the aftermath of the 28-8 victory over Scotland on Saturday, which, combined
with England’s loss to France, ended up securing the NatWest 6 Nations title
with a week to spare.
Captain Rory
Best, Tadhg Furlong and Cian Healy make up the front row.
James Ryan will
win just his eight cap alongside the returning Henderson, who scored a try in
last season’s 13-9 win against England.
The back row as
expected remains the same as the last two games and consists of flankers Dan
Leavy and Peter O’Mahony alongside CJ Stander at number 8.
Conor Murray and
Johnny Sexton continue their rock-solid partnership at half-back, while the
same applies to Bundee Aki and Garry Ringrose in the centre.
With 10 tries in
eight internationals, Jacob Stockdale was virtually undropeable and keeps his place on the left wing, while
Keith Earls starts on the other side.
Man of the match
against Scotland Rob Kearney, alongside Best as the only two remaining 2009
Grand Slam winners, lines out at full-back despite missing training earlier in
the week.
Sean Cronin,
Andrew Porter, Jack McGrath and Toner make up the loose forward substitutes,
while Jordi Murphy did enough on his 2018 Six Nations bow last week to retain a
place on the bench.
Kieran Marmion,
Joey Carbery and Jordan Larmour cover the backs.
There is as much
riding on this game for the England players as for the Irish. Some of the
English are playing to save their international careers and it will be more
like a war than a test match. The English team will probably push the
boundaries of the laws and I suspect the plan will be to give Sexton a few big
smacks and let him know he’s in a match.
The form guide
tells us that Ireland should hammer England in RFU HQ this weekend, just
as it insisted that England should beat Ireland in Dublin last
year. However - and here is the key point - teams in the Six Nations
rarely seem to win away from home anymore these days.
Leaving aside
games in Rome, the only match in this year's Six Nations that has gone against
the home side was Ireland's overtime win in Paris.
Similarly, in
last year's competition, the only game outside of Rome that went against the
home team was England's victory in Cardiff. Every other game played among the
old Five Nations sides ended in a home win.
The year before
that, there were only two away wins (again excluding Italy - we need an acronym
for that), both achieved by England en-route to their first Grand Slam in
thirteen years.
Joe Schmidt, for
his own part, has yet to lose a home Six Nations match in his five years as
Ireland coach but he's lost six out of eleven away from home.
England won’t
play that badly again. They are a different proposition at Twickenham. Ireland
haven’t won there since 2010.
England will want to finish the championship
well. It'll be very easy for them to get up for it at Twickenham. It's not as
if there's no pressure on them. They're playing in front of a home
crowd and there's a lot of media scrutiny on them. There is always an
element of pressure, but really all the pressure is on Ireland because they're
playing for a Grand Slam so that'll play into England's hands.
I think England
will be much more disciplined and their forwards can contain Ireland up front.
Ireland are vulnerable to wide play and England have the best attacking backs
in the competition when they are pumped up. My gut says a home victory and no
Grand Slam.
England 23
Ireland 20
Wales v France
Both teams head
into this final match with high confidence after impressive wins in Round 4.
The final match will provide a suitable climax for a competitive but perhaps
uninspiring 2018 Six Nations.
Despite the
disruption caused by 10 changes, Wales were for the most part very solid and
deserved winners. Wales were out of the blocks at breakneck speed with two
touchdowns in four minutes before struggling to contain an energetic Italian
attack. It wasn't a perfect display from Warren Gatland's new-look team, but
they scored five tries and won with a fair bit to spare.
Hadleigh Parkes
had an outstanding game. He was everywhere and led from the front. He took
advantage of some laughable Italian tackling to score his third try in five
Tests for Wales, but what really impressed about him was his cool head and
expert decision-making. He looks like a player with 80 caps not five caps. He
gave Wales the direction they needed, a true thinking player who managed and
controlled the game well.
Gareth Anscombe
and Rhys Patchell did a great double act at outside half and James “Cubby Boi”
Davies had a solid game despite being perhaps the most over-hyped player ever to
wear the red jersey. With Taulupe Falatau and Justin Tipuric – the Welsh back
row bossed the game and there was good progress in other areas.
Cory Hill and
Bradley Davies were hard working in the boiler room and Tomas Francis also had
his best game for Wales.
It’s a shame that
Liam Williams was frankly atrocious. I have to say I didn’t see anything wrong
at all with his yellow card tackle – its rugby not tiddly-winks – but he was
frankly awful in all aspects of his game. The move to English club rugby
clearly isn’t helping his game or his discipline – so it was a relief when he
did not return from his yellow card.
I’m therefore
extremely disappointed with Gatland’s selections for the final match.
He hasn’t learned
from the poor display in Dublin and names a side with eight changes (one
positional) from the team who put Italy to the sword last weekend.
Captain Alun Wyn
Jones returns to lead the side back into the pack along with Scarlets duo Rob
Evans and Ken Owens and flanker Josh Navidi.
Navidi is a
surprise recall and lines up alongside British & Irish Lions Justin Tipuric
and Taulupe Faletau at six and eight respectively. Aaron Shingler has
deservedly earned wide praise for his efforts earlier in the tournament, but
Tipuric holds on to the blind-side jersey.
Alun Wyn Jones
packs down alongside the rapidly improving Cory Hill in the second-row while
Tomas Francis is rightly retained from the victory over Italy to start
alongside Evans and Owens.
Gareth Davies and
Dan Biggar start at half-back. I am frankly astounded that Biggar has been
recalled and this is a huge retrograde step imho. He was awful against Ireland
and its clear Gatland is just going out to win the game and not looking to
continue Wales progress to a more attacking game.
Anscombe and
Patchell have both performed well at outside half and have much more effective
in creating a more attacking edge. The Welsh 10 shirt has been passed around
like a hot potato, with Rhys Patchell, Dan Biggar and Gareth Anscombe all being
given starting berths in the competition.
Players will
never develop if not given a chance to have a series of games. Anscombe should
have been given the chance to build upon his start against Italy, and in my
opinion, Wales will have learnt far more for their future development from
choosing one player and sticking with him for the whole of the campaign than
with these constant changes.
Hadleigh Parkes
is retained at centre with Scott Williams also returning in the midfield in
place of Owen Watkin. Watkin is another
who can be disappointed not to retain his place. Liam Williams, George North
and Leigh Halfpenny form an all British & Irish Lions back-three. Parkes
must be favourite for Welsh player of the Tournament.
Liam Williams is
another amazing selection. He has no form and looks to be lacking confidence.
Steff Evans can rightly feel aggrieved at being dropped after solid games
throughout the tournament.
Elliot Dee, Nicky
Smith and Samson Lee are named as the front-row replacements with Bradley
Davies and Aaron Shingler completing the forward contingent. Aled Davies,
Gareth Anscombe and Steff Evans provide the backline cover.
For France, the
victory for Jacques Brunel’s side shows real progress throughout the Six
Nations. French Rugby is nothing if not versatile. Who would have thought,
after the pathetic France-Japan draw (23-23) of last November, that France
would beat England less than four months later with a good half of players out
of the dusty drawer where they seemed stored forever?
The French press
is making bold statements about the “revenge of the forgotten” and it’s clear
that who could think that centre Mathieu Bastareaud, considered incompatible
with the rugby of modern movement for two years, would prevail today as the
leader of this French revival?
That the opener
Lionel Beauxis, at thirty-two, would start two matches of the Tournament six
years after his last selection? That winger Rémy Grosso, who was seriously
thinking about stopping his career early in the season, would come out of the
Crunch with the honorary title of man of the match?
You had to be
crazy, obviously, to imagine such a scenario. Or be called Jacques
Brunel. Because all these choices are to the credit of the
coach. Some were dictated by the circumstances. One can think of the
injuries (Dupont, Dulin, Nakaitaci, Fofana, Parra, Lopez, Jalibert, Lacroix,
Raka), and excluding Edinburgh party goers (Picamoles, Thomas, Lamerat, Danty,
Lambey, Macalou, Iturria, Belleau); which forced him to adapt and sometimes to
solicit third or fourth choices.
Other options, on
the other hand, are deliberate and thoughtful. As the one to reinstate
again "Basta" and the flanker Wenceslas Lauret in the starting
fifteen, to bring more power and expertise to their ground game where the
French ruled and scraped as masters against England.
France were far
from outstanding themselves but did cause England problems at the breakdown
throughout the game and relentlessly punished the visitors’ ill-discipline.
The decisive blow
came in the 47th minute when Francois Trinh-Duc sent a cross-field kick
towards Remy Grosso. Jonny May beat him to the ball but only served to knock it
into Benjamin Fall’s hands and Anthony Watson’s subsequent tackle was correctly
ruled high by the TMO, resulting in a penalty try as well as a yellow card for
the England full-back.
Today, the French
players must absolutely think that they are able to compete with the
best. In order to rise to the top, you have to learn to beat them all the
time which seems complicated but you have to give yourself a chance to do
it. Being very close to the Irish, even if they little attacking
opportunity, and a lot of defending, in the face against Scotland for 60
minutes, and then to beat the English will give France a lot of confidence for
the final fixture in Cardiff.
Jacques Brunel
has made three changes to his France team for their trip to Cardiff and the
shock news sees the captaincy handed to Mathieu Bastareaud.
Mathieu
Bastareaud captains France for first time against Wales in Cardiff after regular
skipper Guilhem Guirado pulled out injured. Bastareaud missed the narrow
defeats against Ireland and Scotland at the start of the competition due to a
suspension he picked up for making homophobic remarks towards an opponent
during a Champions Cup game in January.
The hulk-like
centre returned for France's 34-17 victory against Italy and put in another
convincing performance in the win over England.
Hooker Guirado,
who had started 38 of France's last 44 internationals, suffered a knee injury
during last Saturday's 22-16 victory over England and is unavailable
for selection..
Two of the three
changes this weekend for France come in the front row where Adrien Pelissie
comes in at hooker for Guirado while Cedate Gomes Sa replaces Rabah Slimani at
tighthead prop.
And in the
backline, the elusive Gael Fickou is brought onto the wing with Benjamin Fall
moving to full-back and Hugo Bonneval dropping out of the matchday 23.
That means that
Remy Grosso remains the left winger while Bastareaud and Geoffrey Doumayrou are
the midfield pairing again.
Francois
Trinh-Duc and Maxime Machenaud are the half-backs with Marco Tauleigne at No.8
and Yacouba Camara and Wenceslas Lauret at flanker.
The second row of
Paul Gabrillagues and Sebastien Vahaamahina is unchanged while Jefferson Poirot
is the sole survivor in the front row from Le Crunch.
On the bench,
Camille Chat is the cover at hooker while Bernard Le Roux and Mathieu Babillot
are the back five cover in the pack, the No.23 shirt goes to Geoffrey
Palis.
Wales have home
advantage and if they can stifle France at the breakdown and hold their own in
the set pieces, they can win the game. The selection of Navidi and Tiperic is a
clear statement that Wales believe winning the breakdown and gaining a back row
advantage are the keys to winning.
I don’t see
France raising their game again and Wales will win comfortably.
Wales 27 France
18
