Six Nations 2015 – Final Thoughts

Introductory preamble

This is my 6th year of writing Rugby Raconteur. What started out as a few comments on matches between mates on email has expanded to become the blog we have today. I receive many positive comments and feedback from people who read Rugby Raconteur. Some friends, other people I don’t know and I want to thank everyone who reads my missives for your support.

Throughout the six years, I have focused exclusively on the Six Nations tournament. People ask me why I don’t expand this to cover British Lions, Autumn Internationals, World Cup etc. the short answer is time and the long answer is a lack of knowledge. I watch lost of European rugby – Guinness Pro 12, English Premiership, European Cup and that enables me to have a view on the players who play in they Six Nations. I don’t watch Super 15 very much or Rugby Championship in Southern Hemisphere so rather than weaken my writing and judgment – I stick to what I know.

For 2015, I am pleased that once again I have an 80% prediction rate – 12 out of 15 matches judged correctly. In the aggregate points difference – I had a 91% accuracy going into final round but given the unpredicted runaway results yesterday that dropped to a sobering 71% by the end of the tournament. Must try harder.

Anyway enough of the preamble – lets look at my final thoughts on 2015:

Judgment Day!

What a final weekend! With three teams still in the running everyone expected a tense day but no one could have written the script to this one! The greatest ever final day in Six Nations history! The destination of the silverware still in doubt until the final play and the final whistle of the third match. 240 minutes of scintillating rugby enjoyment and not for the faint hearted.

Wales started sluggishly in an error strewn 1st half in Rome going in with a single point advantage at half time. No one expected the second half display. Simply wonderful rugby from Wales who had been heavily criticised for a lack of running ruby and tries in previous rounds. Not so on this occasion. Wales were once again magnificent. Their whole season can be summed up in two halves. An awful 2nd half against England and a magical 2nd half against Italy.  A marker set down for everyone else and Ireland needing a 20 pt. victory margin to overtake Wales.

Match 2 brought Ireland to Murrayfield. Scotland surely must be up for the fight? Nothing to lose and everything to gain in a final home encounter. Well no. That’s not how the script went. No Hollywood ending for Scotland who were lamentable and quite simply the worst display by a Scottish team I have ever seen. Ireland dominated early with the evergreen O’Connell scoring an early try and never looked back. Ireland dominated the play and deservedly won the match by a record 30 points. Advantage Ireland into game 3.

England v France has thrown up some memorable games but this one will go down as a classic. A carefree England attacking well and gaining an early score. Back comes France. Then advantage England. Ben Youngs has been heavily criticised by me for his poor game against Ireland produced a man of the match performance to put England back in the ascendency and with the clock running down England on the attack needing a try to overhaul Ireland. A lost possession, scrum and France almost committing suicide with sloppy play near the end. The ball goes out to row Z and its all over Ireland are champions.

Many have criticised the judgment day format saying it gives too much advantage to the team playing last. Maybe but I think March 21st 2015 will go down as the greatest day in Six Nations rugby.

Bridesmaids

Stuart Lancaster’s England once again finishes in 2nd place in the championship. Another disappointment but England has much to be positive about going into the World Cup.  Despite horrific squad injuries, England were competitive in every match. Their big challenge is like in 2013 – they started strongly and got worse through the tournament. Defensive lapses hurt them against France and they were killed with slow ball against Ireland. 

Despite this, England can hold their heads up high. A god tournament on the build up to the World Cup – at home this autumn. Jonathan Joseph shone in the centres. Mike Brown, Jack Nowell, and Anthony Watson confounded their critics with a very attacking back 3. Ben Youngs was inconsistent but on his day is a world-beater. George Ford controlled things well at outside half. When you add the strength of the English pack then despite finishing second, it is England who can dream of World Cup glory and I confound anyone to bet against England being in the World Cup final on October 31st.

Team of the Championship – Wales

Controversial and I am not trying to show national bias but Wales for me were the best side in this Six Nations. They were the only team to win three away games and the only team who improved round after round.  Losing your first game at home to England after controlling a first half would break most teams but Wales bounced back with “job done” wins in Edinburgh and Paris before the Rourke’s Drift defensive display against Ireland and the magnificent win in Rome.

Dan Biggar became a man in this tournament and showed levels of maturity and control. Liam Williams rightly gained his place on the wing and Rhys Webb was an attacking threat at scrum half. Webb is much like Ben Youngs. Similar style and similar concentration levels – wonderful one minute awful the next. But he will improve.

In the pack, Luke Charteris was a giant and Sam Warburton absolutely back to his best with solid displays in every game. The dragon is back but sadly the World Cup looks very challenging. This six nations could be Warren Gatland’s swansong. An ignominious World Cup exit at group stage is the risk facing Wales for the remainder of 2015.

Goal kickers win matches

There is no substitute for a great kicker. Quite simply goal kickers win matches. Leigh halfpenny has set the standard again for everyone but Jonny Sexton, George Ford and Dan Biggar also gave noble efforts. When Halfpenny left the field against italy, Biggar stepped up and it was business as usual.

Greig Laidlaw was the only Scottish player to show real grit and his goal kicking accuracy was the only thing which kept Scotland from even bigger defeats. 
France and Italy struggled because a lack of a suitable goal kicker. If France who were 15-7 up against England had kicked the conversions and two penalties that followed, it could have been a different game yesterday. They need to find a kicker and fast!

Fond Farewell and Good Luck!

This Six Nations looks like it could be the last for many fantastic performers whom I doubt we will see in Six Nations 2016.

Paul O’Connell - defied his years to be an outstanding leader for Ireland but advancing years are catching up with him and an international retirement after the World Cup looks highly likely.

Gethin Jenkins – never the greatest scrummager but a fabulous loose player who has own over 100 caps and tasted Grand Slam and Lions glory. Again advancing years are catching up and I believe he will join another Welsh legend Adam Jones in international retirement.

Sergio Parisse – will we ever see him again for Italy in the Six Nations? Got to be doubts. Another centurion capper who has been the World’s best No.8 for many seasons.

Nick Easter – a surprise recall but he enjoyed his last season in the sun and contributed to England’s victories. Never the greatest No.8 but a real trier and a fabulous character.

To all those whom we ill never again see grace the Six Nations. Thank you and I wish you all the best for the future.

All Star Team

Finally my all-star line up for the 2015 Six Nations. Some controversial selections but that goes without saying

Full back:

Leigh Halfpenny – back to his very best and goal kicker extraordinaire who ran well in attack and was brace in defence, Honourable mentions for Brown, Kearney, McLean and Hogg but Halfpenny gets the nod

Wingers:

Liam Williams – some sublime performances from Sanjay. Close against Bowe and Watson

Noa Nakaitaci – two wonderful cameos for France. Just where has this guy been? Honourable mention for Jack Nowell who comes a narrow second.


Centres:

Jonathan Joseph – wonderful displays from the Bath product who has made the England no. 13 shirt his own. Great flair, pace, and strong defence. 

Robbie Henshaw – narrowly shades Jamie Roberts. Solid performer for Ireland. The new BoD? Time will tell.

Half Backs:

Jonny Sexton – the governor. Ford and Biggar chasing in his wake.

Conor Murray – simply the best and fastest distribution of the all the home scrum halves. Sublime handling and great vision for Irish try against England.

Props

Joe Marler – the most improved prop in the Six Nations. Outstanding in scrums and loose. Well done for a man I previously considered a journeyman. Honourable mention for the excellent Vincent Dubaty.

Dan Cole – 50 caps now and currently the best tight head in the world. 

Hooker:

Guilhem Guirado – narrowly shades it ahead of Dylan Hartley

Second Row:

Paul O’Connell – goes without saying

Luke Charteris – narrowly shades out team mate Alun Wyn-Jones.

Back Row:

Peter O’Mahony – part of a wonderful Irish Back row. Spoiling and unplayable at times

Sergio Parisse – wonderful displays against England and Scotland. Literally carried Italy home against Scotland. Simply the best!

Sam Warburton – back to his brilliant best. Man of the match against Ireland and close against Italy. Captain courageous.


Well that’s all folks. See you again for Six Nations 2016!

Six Nations 2015 Round 5 – The Chase is on!

Final round of the 2015 Six nations and we have a three-way chase to the title. Pre-tournament favourites Ireland hit a major roadblock last weekend in Cardiff and now join Wales and England on 3 wins out of 4 with points difference the likely deciding factor on where the championship silverware will end up. 

Your correspondent is having another solid year of predictions with a 75% success rate going into the final weekend –not quite at the dizzy heights of last season but with a solid last weekend an 80% success rate is within grasp!

Round 4 saw some great battles. Wales went and demonstrated that defences are critical in our modern game with a truly bone crunching defensive display against Ireland. Scotland showed some strong heart against a mistake-ridden disorganised England and France finally showed what they are made of with a comprehensive defeat of Italy in Rome. 

Will the final weekend live up to the heights of Round 4? Who will win the title? All will be revealed in my final preview of the tournament.

Italy v Wales

Awesome! That is the only way to describe Wales’ outstanding defensive display against Ireland. A new record of 250 tackles and the ability of the Welsh defence to withstand wave after wave of Irish attacking play was breathtaking and punishing at the same time. It was not the prettiest match but it was rugby at its rawest – brutal, uncompromising and gripping.

Wales are peaking at the right time.  After their lamentable second half against England, they have slowly got their tournament back on track. A solid grinding performance against Scotland followed by growing confidence and more match control against France and Ireland.  The final win over Ireland has given Wales an outside chance to still win the title and their final match is against a damaged and shell-shocked Italy. A comprehensive victory over Italy, though, would turn up the heat on their title rivals, with Ireland tackling Scotland at Murrayfield next Saturday, followed by England hosting France at Twickenham.

I have been watching Rugby for a long time but I have never seen defensive play on that scale before. Quiet honestly, it was hard to choose a man of the match. Captain Sam Warburton was a nuisance all game to Ireland – doing what opens side flankers do in slowing down and disrupting the play. Luke Charteris and Alun Wyn-Jones had huge matches. The transformation of the beanpole Charteris into a world-class second row has been very pleasing. His time in the Top 14 in France at Perpignan and Racing Metro has definitely made a man out of him and his performance in defence with 31 tackles was also matched by his massively disruptive qualities in the Irish line out. 

That victory over Ireland was not without its cost – injuries to Samson Lee and Gethin Jenkins mean Warren Gatland has had to shuffle his pack and make a small number of changes. Scarlets forward Rob Evans and Ospreys tight head Aaron Jarvis are their respective replacements, while there are call-ups on the bench for hooker Ken Owens, props Rhys Gill and Scott Andrews and scrumhalf Gareth Davies, with Mike Phillips missing out.

It will be Rob Evans' full Wales debut after he went on as a replacement for Jenkins at half-time last Saturday, with Jarvis continuing instead of Lee, who was carried off inside the opening 15 minutes against Ireland. This is worrying area for Wales against the proven Italian front row and pack. Wales do not have a huge depth of front row forwards to add to the team but Gatland has done well to strengthen his bench while continuing to give game time to his next generation of forwards.

Ken Owens returns after a length absence and lines up among the substitutes instead of Gloucester hooker Richard Hibbard, who had been following return-to-play protocols after taking a blow to his head during the Ireland game. Cardiff born Saracens forward Rhys Gill, meanwhile, gains a match-day place after only joining the squad for training on Monday, while Gareth Davies - a livewire operator and consistent try-scorer for the Scarlets - gets his chance instead of the hugely experienced Phillips. Again sensible planning by Gatland to bring Davies on in terms of game experience in the cauldron of the Six Nations prior to the World Cup.

As for Italy, they must be absolutely shell-shocked and disheartened by their poor display against France. To get shut out at home in Stadio Olimpico was extremely poor and such a disappointment after their victory in Murrayfield in Round 3.  That situation went from bad to worse this week with news that inspirational captain Sergio Parisse has been ruled out of Saturday's clash against Wales.

In a hammer-blow for the Azzurri, number eight Parisse has not recovered from a foot injury suffered during last weekend's 29-0 home loss to France.
Samuela Vunisa, who moves from open side flanker, will replace him in the back row, with veteran Mauro Bergamasco handed the number seven shirt.

Leicester hooker Leonardo Ghiraldini will take over the captaincy reins from Parisse as Italy look to thwart Wales' Six Nations title bid. Other changes made by head coach Jacques Brunel from the France clash see starts for Zebre fly-half Kelly Haimona, who has recovered from an injury that ruled him out of the France encounter, and long-serving prop Martin Castrogiovanni.

And there is also a chance in the front row for Ghiraldini's Leicester colleague Michele Rizzo, who replaces the injured Matias Aguero with highly experienced forwards Quintin Geldenhuys and Robert Barbieri, meanwhile, are on the bench.

Wales need tries and lots of them. That has been their biggest challenge this season. Rome has not been a happy hunting ground for the Welsh but fortune favours the brave and one has to feel Wales have just too much quality to drop the ball at this stage. Halfpenny has been sublime with his kicking and the Welsh three-quarters are due a big game.  

Italy’s best chance is to disrupt the Welsh scrummage and try to get their rolling maul moving. Their goal kicking has been pretty awful – so Italy must be focusing on accepting defeat and trying to keep their head held high.

Expect Wales to push hard from the start and achieve a comfortable win but will it be enough of a points difference?

Italy 7 Wales 33

Scotland v Ireland

Ireland’s defeat in Cardiff has been chastening. Their press has been very negative about the Welsh performance and that is a lack of respect. Ireland were one dimensional and unable to break through the Welsh defence. It is the number of opportunities that were squandered that dominated the post-match discussion. Sexton was definitely off the pace and the Irish forwards suffered from white line fever at critical times when cooler heads may have passed the ball wide.

Ireland suffered as the more they looked to get back into the game the more their runners became one-off and the team did not move the point of contact. Much as the Welsh were heroic, Ireland made it easier for them than anyone could have expected. The picture of Tommy Bowe and Jared Payne waving their hands in the air looking for the ball and a walk-in try summed up Ireland's plight. To be fair it may be hard to watch for the players, but it will also be comforting and the lessons learnt will actually make Ireland better.

A time to change direction or simply a bad day at the office? I think it is the latter. Joe Schmidt is an intelligent coach and he will have taken the time to ensure Ireland come to terms with their "straight-up" lesson in failing to convert pressure into tries.  Schmidt will also look at his side over-playing when they were chasing the game, but that is down to the key decision-makers taking control at the right time; also the turnover penalty on Cian Healy from Warburton gave Wales a seven-point buffer, when Ireland should have been putting the pressure back on Wales as they became tense.

Ireland will be determined to win their second championship title in a row. They go into this decisive weekend level with England and Wales on six points and know they must win in Edinburgh to have any chance of clinching glory.

Schmidt makes just two changes to his Ireland side to face Scotland. Luke Fitzgerald comes into the side at the expense of Simon Zebo on the left wing. The Munster man drops out of the match-day 23 entirely.

Zebo was poor against Wales after a strong showing against England and his loss of form comes at a bad time for him. Leinster man Fitzgerald's inclusion is his first for Ireland since the clash with New Zealand at Aviva Stadium in 2013, when he entered the fray as a centre replacement for Brian O'Driscoll after 53 minutes of action.

There have been calls for his inclusion from many sectors in Ireland following his fine displays for Leinster this season and Ireland will be hoping that he will add a creativity and unpredictability to the Ireland backline. He'll win his 28th cap on Saturday. 

Cian Healy replaces Jack McGrath at loose-head prop for his first start of the championship, with McGrath taking Healy's place on the bench as loose-head replacement. McGrath held the position for the first four rounds of the tournament, with Healy operating off the bench in Ireland's clashes with France, England and Wales. McGrath can count himself unlucky not to be running out at Murrayfield, but 27-year-old Healy looks to have proved he is restored to full match fitness

I am surprised to see Rory Best retain his place. His performance in Cardiff was nothing short of abysmal for an international hooker- line out throwing accuracy of a scud missile and anonymous in the loose. He will win his 83rd cap against Scotland and Sean Cronin must be wondering just what he has to do to gain a test start.

For Scotland, they are facing into the abyss of yet another wooden spoon. There were encouraging signs in eth first half against England but like Wales in Cardiff, they faded badly against the white machine in the second half. It was only England’s own mistakes and mismanagement that saved Scotland from yet another hammering. 

There is no question that Scotland have played with a lot of spirit this season with their ability to score tries being the one saving grace.  The Scots are desperate to end their campaign on a high in a tournament, which reads, played 4 lost 4 so far.

Coach Vern Cotter has made two changes to his side ahead of Saturday's final RBS 6 Nations clash with Ireland at Murrayfield. Back-row forward Adam Ashe is promoted from the bench to take Rob Harley's slot on the blind-side, while prop Ryan Grant also moves up from the replacements to take Alasdair Dickinson's role in the front-row.

Cotter's two alterations apart, Scotland remain a fairly settled line-up and the New Zealand-born head coach goes with the same back division which impressed for spells during last week's brave display in the 25-13 defeat to England at Twickenham.

Skipper Greig Laidlaw will partner stand-off Finn Russell in the half-back positions as they start in front of Glasgow Warriors trio Mark Bennett, Stuart Hogg and Tommy Seymour, and Edinburgh duo Dougie Fife and Matt Scott.
In the pack, tight-head Euan Murray makes history, alongside Ross Ford and Grant, overtaking Allan Jacobsen's record as the most capped Scotland prop with a 66th appearance.

Jonny Gray and Jim Hamilton will again start in the boiler house, with David Denton and Blair Cowan returning to the back row. The only other change is among the match-day substitutes as Tim Visser replaces Johnnie Beattie.

Ireland must start as huge favourites and they will be looking to recover quickly from their defeat in Cardiff. They will be keen to not to repeat the mistakes of 2007 when Ireland chased a points-difference boosting final try rather than punt the ball out for full-time in Italy eight years ago, only to concede what proved to be a crucial converted score.

Roland de Marigny plundered the last-gasp score for the Azzurri, with Ireland winning out 54-21: France then hammered Scotland 46-19 to swipe the title on points-difference - by just a four-point margin. 

Scotland have their last chance to salvage something and they will fight to the last to cause an upset like in 2013 when triumphed 12-8 over Ireland at Murrayfield. Expect the scots to move the ball through their backs and use Stuart Hogg as a tactical kicking weapon relying on Laidlaw’s goal kicking to keep them in touch. 

Its stick your neck out time and I have to make a big call. Much as my heart would love to see Scotland triumph, Ireland just have too much quality and one defeat does not a bad team make. Ireland win but not by a big score.

Scotland 16 Ireland 22

England v France

England has largely failed to kick on from their opening victory over Wales. An unimpressive home performance over Italy where they made it far too hard to win against a feisty Azzurri was followed by the defeat in Dublin and then last week’s error strewn victory over Scotland. 

Are England trying too hard? Have they found their level? Or are expectations just too high?

Answers on a postcard please.  England management have been putting a brave face on it but the facts are England have won 3 games, silenced the Millennium Stadium fever, and have done the job they had to do, At times England have looked very impressive at times whilst at others hurried and ill prepared. 

England are at a crossroads. As it stands – England is probably the only Northern Hemisphere team who has the ability, draw, and home advantage to win this year’s world cup. They have a stable side and can improve.  The injury crisis they faced hat the start of the tournament has not been mentioned since the first round and really shouldn’t. Stuart Lancaster has been tinkering with his side through the rounds; handling injuries and bringing players back as required. 

The reality is they have to start winning the key matches and titles. The loss in Dublin hurt them and this weekend’s showdown with Les Bleus is really a huge challenge for them. They really need to prevail and take the Six Nations title. Should they fail (again), then the self doubts will continue to nag at both the team and support and that could be the main thing that could derail their World cup challenge.

Stuart Lancaster makes one change to his starting line up. England have promoted Geoff Parling to the second row and recalled Nick Easter to the bench for Saturday's decisive RBS 6 Nations clash with France at Twickenham. Parling will replace the failing Dave Attwood, who has been massively disappointing after his solid performance against Wales.  Attwood’s form has really dropped off to the level where he has been dropped from the 23 altogether. Instead, head coach Stuart Lancaster has looked to Easter to provide lock cover among the replacements as England aim to clinch a first Championship since 2011.

Lancaster keeps faith with his team with Dan Cole winning his 50th cap at prop and the impressive Jack Nowell also retaining his wing slot. Nowell and George Ford were the stand out players against Scotland and Lancaster will also be pleased with the return to form of Billy Vunipola who had one of his best outings in an England shirt. 

As for France, at last a sign of positive progress for Les Blues. It finally looked like they knew what was their best side. France were impressive against Italy shutting them out to no score in Rome.  Philippe Saint-Andre finally seemed to get his selections right. Fickou and Mermoz were impressive in the centres – more like the old France, Scott Spedding handled and controlled well from full back and the French pack showed solid scrunmmaging, line out and mauls.  Much better all round and I was delighted to finally see some Gallic flare and spirit to wake up the tournament. 

Philippe Saint-Andre has made two to his starting line-up for Saturday's RBS 6 Nations showdown against England, with Jules Plisson and Vincent Debaty set to start. Stade Francais fly-half Plisson comes in for the injured Camille Lopez, who sustained a badly bruised knee during Sunday's 29-0 triumph over Italy, while loose head prop Eddy Ben Arous has also been ruled out for the match at Twickenham as Debaty makes a start after impressive shifts off the bench.
Plisson, who impressed as he came off the bench and scored 10 points in his 40-minute appearance against Italy, broke his nose at the Stadio Olimpico but has been passed fit to take on leaders England. Plisson has been very impressive for Stade in the top 14 this season and is virtually unrecognisable from the player that lost his place in the France team last year. 

The other change with Debaty coming into the starting line up is the recall of Uini Atonio as replacement prop amongst the replacements.

This really is a tough game to call. France have a poor record at Twickenham with it being 10 years since their last victory at HQ way back in 2005. They are however coming to this match with confidence and form. England need to win and need to win well to quell the doubters. 

England will be wary of France’s scrum but the recall of Parling and his reunion with Lawes will settle England’s platform and with secure ball, England should be able to unleash their talented backs and with quick ball they could have France in trouble. 

The critical player for England is probably George Ford. He was impressive against Scotland – probably England’s best player. He needs a solid game and needs to use his obvious talent and vision to steer England to victory.

I think England are too good to lose at home and France will give away a lot of penalties which will enable the Rose to keep the scoreboard ticking over. England win and are champions with +43 points difference.

England 19 France 13

Final Standings

	P	W	L	Pts Diff	POINTS
England	5	4	1	+43	8
Ireland	5	4	1	+39	8
Wales	5	4	1	+38	8
France	5	2	3	+16	4
Italy	5	1	4	-105	2
Scotland	5	0	5	-31	0

Six Nations 2015 Round 4 – Green, White or Red?

Round 3 provided two upsets and one home victory and Rugby Raconteur is at the usual state of 66% accuracy as we head into the two final rounds. There hasn’t been much between Ireland, England, Wales and France so far, and there wasn’t much between France and Scotland in Paris, Scotland and Wales in Edinburgh. Ireland showed that England are some way short of being the finished article,

Team of the round has to go to Italy who defied the odds to win at Murrayfield and silence the highland hoards. Wales had a job to do in Paris and once again confounded the critics with a controlled victory whilst Ireland once again took the wheels off England’s chariot.

Round 4 of the Six Nations and we have just three teams in contention – the green of Ireland, the White of England and the Red of Wales. Who will come out in top this week? In Cheltenham Festival week lets us out the runners and riders for Round 4.

Wales v Ireland 

Game of the round is first up with Wales taking on defending champions Ireland at the millennium Stadium. Ireland are the only remaining unbeaten team and must be rated as red-hot favourites to win again on Saturday. The luck of the Irish is strong in Cardiff and it will be a shock to many people that Wales have only won their home Six nations tie against Ireland on 2 occasions since 1983. That really is a shocking home record for Wales and the green shirts are now ten wins from their last ten games and will seek to be triumphant once again.

Wales were impressive against France with total control of the match. Jamie Roberts was very aggressive with 12 hit ups and the Welsh control of the kicking game both out of hand and off the tee was exemplary. Leigh Halfpenny showed once again that goal kickers win matches. There was also a strong performance from the Welsh forwards with the front row holding up well against the strong French pack.

Wales remain an outside chance of winning the total by a +5 points difference is a long way off the +40 pts from Ireland and plus 25pts from England. Coach Warren Gatland names an unchanged team for Saturday’s critical encounter. Gatland predictably retains the starting line-up that defeated France 20-13 in Paris ten days ago, a result that kept alive hopes of Wales landing a third Six Nations crown in four years.

He will be pleased that Flanker Sam Warburton has been passed fit after he went off after taking a blow to his knee during the French clash. Big Sam will break Ryan Jones' record when he captains Wales for the 34th time on Saturday.

Scott Baldwin retains his place at hooker and Luke Charteris continues at 2nd row. The Welsh line out was solid and dependable in Paris and provided a good attacking platform for Wales to dominate the French up front with quick passing and aggressive work around the gain line. Dan Lydiate again sees of the challenge of Justin Tipuric after an outstanding piece of skill set up Dan Biggar’s try in Paris.

In the backs Liam Williams rightly retains his spot on the wing and Wales only changes are on the bench where Paul James is ruled out with injury and Bradley Davies is dropped. Jake Ball returns for Davies and Scarlets Rob Evans is called up as front row cover.

Ireland are the form team of the present and have continued their dominant autumn performances into the six nations. Their game plan is based around applying pressure and power, winning penalties and relying upon the boot of your lethal goal kicker to accumulate points and win matches.

Conor Murray has been the real form player for the Irish and the big difference in their win over England was the speed of the ball and the time that expert thinker Jonny Sexton has to plan the next Irish attack. In an era of tight defences, speed of play and though remain critical factors that can make the subtle difference between winning and losing.

Ireland may not be pretty to watch but there is no doubt it is proving effective. The statistics prove Ireland have carried the ball less than others, offloaded fewer times, not been as successful with line breaks... yet are still top of the table and the team to bear.

Joe Schmidt has a full complement of his squad to choose from. Jamie Heaslip has beaten the cracked vertebrae in his back inflicted by lock Pascal Pape in the 18-11 victory over France on Valentine's Day. Heaslip is the only change from the team that beat England. Critical playmaker Sexton has beaten the hamstring problem that forced him out of the latter stages of the 19-9 victory over England, with Jared Payne and Sean O'Brien both returning from concussion.

Jordi Murphy is the unlucky player returning to the bench as Joe Schmidt retains the same team that beat France convincing in Dublin in Round 2.

I expect another tight game as the Cementball tactics of Wales meet their match in Ireland.  Neither team will want to lose and it will suit Wales to not be favourites at home.  The critical determinant of success or failure may well be the referee. The withdrawal of Steve Walsh has meant that an Englishman could be the decisive factor. Wayne Barnes has been a controversial figure in Wales v Ireland matches and neither team will be really happy to see him in charge again.

Wales will fear he will allow Ireland to infringe without penalty in the ruck areas whilst Ireland will be cautious of his record of not penalizing foul play.

Wales will feel confident their front row can cause Ireland some problems. Mike Ross in particular has been struggling of late and Wales will feel the scrums could create a good platform for quick ball to get their dangerous back line moving.

Captain O’Connell is evenly matched against the athletic Alun Wyn-Jones in the boiler room and the back rows also look evenly matched assuming Heaslip and O’Brien are truly 100% fit.

At half backs, Murray and Sexton are the dogs nadgers right now but Webb and Biggar have also been in strong form and improving every match so far. This could be the most crucial area where the game will be won or lost and a lot will depend upon Sexton’s fitness.

Jamie Roberts and Jonathan Davies will combine as Welsh Centres for the 38th time on Saturday, and will form a stern test for Ireland’s fledgling midfield duo Payne and Henshaw who have both impressed this tournament.

Back three is again very even and hard to call with both sets strong in the air. Simon Zebo is much improved on the wing for Ireland and George North showed something like his old self against France and will be eager to improve further against Ireland.

I expect Ireland to start at full pace and gain an early lead. Wales will depend on Halfpenny to keep them in the match and if Wales are within 3 points at half time then I fully expect a Welsh victory. Sam Warburton will lead his team for a record 34th time on Saturday and I see Wales throwing the door open for perennial rivals England to leap back into championship contention.

Wales 27 Ireland 23

England v Scotland

So onto the oldest trophy in International rugby – the Calcutta Cup at Twickenham.  This magnificent trophy was first played for in 1879 and this year’s encounter is the 120th meeting between the auld enemies. Scotland will be desperate to restore pride in the Calcutta Cup meeting following three straight defeats to France, Wales and the Azzurri whilst England will be looking to get their momentum back on track after what appears as just a brief hiccup in Dublin.

Make no mistake, England were poor in Dublin and rightly paid the price for a failure to exert their authority over Ireland. What will be worrying for coach Stuart Lancaster was the way England couldn’t match the Irish intensity and the slow ball they had meant it was easy for Ireland to work effective defensive patterns against them.

What will also be worrying is the loss of form from players who looked world class in the earlier encounters. Jonathan Joseph looked the shirt against both Wales and Italy but faded badly and was largely anonymous against Ireland. Also Dave Attwood has not matched the intensity shown against Wales in the subsequent matches. He was poor against Italy and another who faded from view against the green shirts.

Stuart Lancaster has made two changes from the side beaten by Ireland for England RBS 6 Nations game against Scotland at Twickenham. Second row Courtney Lawes and fullback Mike Brown return to the starting line up, in place of George Kruis and Alex Goode, respectively.

The powerful and athletic Lawes replaces George Kruis in the engine room as the red rose reinforce a challenge for the title that was dealt a potentially fatal setback with their chastening 19-9 defeat in Ireland. He has only recently recovered from the ankle surgery that forced him to miss the start of the Championship and has proven his fitness during two matches for Northampton. The 26-year-old will reprise a second row partnership with Dave Attwood last seen during the autumn while George Kruis, drops out of the match day squad.

Fellow lock Geoff Parling also comes into the squad for his first taste of the Six Nations since 2013 as one of the replacements along with Newcastle’s Keiron Brookes who returns to the bench.

Lancaster has continued to ignore Danny care and I am struggling to understand his loyalty to Ben Youngs. Youngs was largely the scapegoat for me against Ireland. His passing and distribution was slow and ponderous and George Ford didn’t have the tactical knowledge and skill to change the game plan when it was clearly not making the expected progress against the Irish defence. There is very little you can usefully do with slow ball, and so England did very little in penetration and attack. It’s partly because they received slow ball that their handling let them down. Incidentally, in Dublin, Ireland handled so securely and were so efficient at the breakdown that the game was, I think, well on into the second half, before England had the put-in at a scrum.

Chris Robshaw was another who had a poor game and it was hard to really pick anyone from England who had a strong game in Dublin.

As for Scotland, they must be devastated to lose at home to Italy after controlling the match for large spells. Peter Horne will undoubtedly be blamed for missing his penalty kick to touch when all Scotland had to do was retain possession to run down the clock. If Horne, who otherwise had a pretty good game, had found touch with that penalty; it would have offered an unexpected escape from a five-metre scrum, and Scotland probably have held on to win. Yet the truth is of course that the Scots should never have found themselves in that position. Instead, they opened the doors to a Parisse inspired comeback and after three matches it is three defeats and coach Vern Cotter is staring into the abyss of another Scottish wooden spoon. A match, which should have been won fairly comfortably, was lost because of their own mistakes.

Scotland is a team that has forgotten how to win matches. The mix of experience and youth put together by Cotter is not yet melding into a successful combination. To add insult to injury, they now face the daunting task of facing a wounded England at Twickenham.  The trip to Twickenham to face an England side eager to get their show back on the road after their defeat in Dublin looks at least as daunting as it has done since 1999 – the last time Scotland really came close to winning there.

Scotland head coach Vern Cotter has made five changes to the team that will face England in the Six Nations on Saturday.

Edinburgh No 8 David Denton comes in for James Beattie, having recovered from a calf strain, to make his debut in this year’s tournament. He is joined by club team-mates Dougie Fife and Matt Scott – who come in for the injured Sean Lamont and Alex Dunbar, respectively – as well as Finn Russell, who comes in for Peter Horne following the completion of his two-week suspension, and Jim Hamilton, who replaces Tim Swinson.

Denton after a bright international start has become a bit one-dimensional but at least offers strong ball carrying and a brave heart to keep Scottish hopes up of an upset.  The loss of Dunbar is a big blow but offset by the return of Finn Russell who showed maturity against France and was combatively and inventive at times against Wales.

Tight head prop Euan Murray, meanwhile, will equal Allan Jacobsen's all-time appearance record for a Scotland prop when he collects his 65th cap.

He will partner Alasdair Dickinson and fit-again Ross Ford, who has recovered from the back spasm suffered against Italy to start in an experienced front-row.
Jonny Gray remains in the second-row to pack down with Hamilton, while Blair Cowan and Rob Harley start together for the sixth consecutive time in the back-row, alongside Denton.

Captain Greig Laidlaw will again partner the returning Russell from scrum-half, with the back-line completed by Glasgow Warriors trio Mark Bennett, Tommy Seymour

England have won their last five games against Scotland, and have not lost against them at Twickenham for 32 years. They will expect another home victory but will also be looking to rack up the points as their only realistic hope of overhauling Ireland for the title will be via points difference if the unbeaten Irish lose one of their remaining two games.

I don’t see Scotland completing mission impossible at Twickenham. England will not play as badly again as they did in Dublin and although Scotland will have flashes of brilliance, it is hard to see England winning by a comfortable margin which could easily exceed 20 points.

I expect the English line out and rolling maul to be working effectively and the ball to be moved through the backs. Three tries for England, as a minimum is what is required to maintain the momentum halted in Ireland and Robshaw and his army will deliver. England win at a cantor.

England 30 Scotland 10

Italy v France

So to Sunday’s game and another exciting encounter that on paper is hard to call. Italy will be confident of another big scalp when they welcome France to Rome in the March sunshine.

France continue to disappoint massively and were well beaten against Wales in Paris. Coach Philippe Saint-André was very critical of his players after they lost to Wales especially lamenting the lack of choice at his disposal for goal kickers but his selection choices have partially caused the issues.

Les Bleus have lost their last two games, against Ireland and Wales, and will have to bounce back strongly against the Italians. Recent history is not on their side and France has been beaten on their last two trips to Italy and will not be relishing facing an Italian team oozing confidence and passion in the Stadio Olympico.

Saint-Andre has made eight changes to the team who lost against Wales after the squad was hit by a series of injuries, with scrum-half Morgan Parra, centres Remi Lamerat and Wesley Fofana as well as wing Sofiane Guitoune being ruled out. He has reverted to his favoured halfback pairing of Sebastien Tillous-Borde and Camille Lopez when he named them on Thursday in a reshuffled team to face Italy in the Six Nations on Sunday.
             
Scrum-half Tillous-Borde and out-half Lopez started all three November Tests, but the Toulon player missed the first two Six Nations games through injury before starting on the bench for the match against Wales. Fullback Brice Dulin has been replaced by the recalled Scott Spedding while wing Noa Nakaitaci, centre Maxime Mermoz and number eight Loann Goujon have all been handed their first start with Les Bleus.
             
Mermoz recall will set up a new partnership with Gael Fickou and this means there is again no starting place for the giant Mathieu Basteraud. Saint-Andre also keeps faith with the bulk of his pack although Nicholas Mas is also recalled at Tight head Prop.

The French team looks as strong as it could be given the full Top 14 programme last weekend and the injuries picked up by many of his squad. It will depend upon the leadership from veteran Thierry Dusautoir in his 74th game for France to lift his team up for the daunting challenge in Rome.

As for Italy, coach Jacques Brunel must be absolutely delighted with the way his team fought back against Italy and the sheer determination and grit shown by his players led by the peerless Sergio Parisse.  The win will have silenced the many voices in the British media who have suggested that the Azzurri were not doing enough to show they deserve a place in the tournament after 26-3 and 47-17 defeats to Ireland and England respectively in their first two matches this season.
Italy will be looking to build on that victory but the French will be a very different kettle of fish and the Azzuri must cut out the silly mistakes such as the poor pass by fly half Kelly Haimona that gave Scotland centre Mark Bennett such an easy try early on in the Edinburgh encounter.

Parisse was outstanding against Scotland but I feel obliged to also mention the contribution of man of the match Luke McLean. McLean has been much maligned and written off as a journeyman but he looked dangerous with the ball and kicked intelligently with the ball in hand. He also offers a goal kicking option.

Again the lack of goal kicker could hold Italy back and they must be looking at a change at outside half.  Kelly Haimona has been desperately disappointing and really hasn’t inspired or driven the Italian team forward.

With coach Brunel not naming his side until 1pm on Friday due to a lengthening injury list and therefore I don’t have time to report on his final line up. What I do know is that both captain Parisse that the wing Sarto have been training this week and look to have shaken off the minor injuries sustained in the last match.
We are likely to see back row changes with Favaro looking unlikely to recover the knee sprain suffered against Scotland and Minto, also looking for as late fitness check. Tomasso Allan has also been resting from training as a result of a sprained ankle but should be passed fit to play, while centre Giulio Bisegni is another still struggling for fitness with a knee sprain and he will also undergo further tests on Thursday and Friday training.
Martin Castrogiovanni, who missed Italy's Six Nations win over Scotland at the weekend after being bitten on the nose by a friend's dog, has been dropped for the matches against France and Wales. The prop needed 14 stitches after the incident, but was not been named in head coach Jacques Brunel's 30-man squad on Tuesday, and nor does he figure among the players listed as excluded through injury.

Back Andrea Masi has been recalled after missing the Scotland game, while lock Quintin Geldenhuys also returns as he looks to make his first appearance in the championship following a knee injury.

Expect another tight forward driven game between the two sides and a high penalty count. France can’t lose again can they? I am excited by Mermoz and Fickou and with options off the bench; France will prove too strong on this occasion and will save Saint-Andre with a narrow victory.

Italy 13 France 23

SIX NATIONS ROUND 3 - LASTING THE PACE

Halfway point in the 2015 Six Nations and its been an interesting ride. One or two things coming to the forefront. Player concussion is starting to become a real issue – Mike Brown following George North and Samson Lee in missing matches due to a longer than expected recovery time. The second controversy is around the choke tackle – something Ireland have seriously perfected as a key part of their game. Shaun Edwards taking a particular stand against it and asking for a ban on it in his press conference this week.

It’s an emotive point and I have to agree that it’s not adding anything to attacking rugby. There are clearly some issues in refereeing interpretations, which certainly need reviewing and I would suggest some minor law tinkering will likely happen before the Autumn World Cup.

Round two’s results were pretty much as expected. One of the clear observations from this year’s competition is the gap between the teams is extremely narrow. On any given day – anyone could beat anyone; with even Italy showing some great resolve against England. This makes the work of the rugby pundit harder than ever and Round three sees some exciting match-ups, which are very close and difficult to call.  

SCOTLAND v ITALY

Mt predication that Scotland would be a much stronger proposition this season has come to fruition with the Highlanders scoring the only try in Paris and losing by 5 points to Wales. However, it’s played two and lost two and this weekend’s encounter against the Azzurri is a “must win” for coach Vern Cotter.

Scotland impressed in many areas against Wales and must be frustrated with not getting a win behind them. They attacked for long periods against Wales and but ill discipline and a bad dose of “white line fever” meant they once again flattered to deceive.

Finn Russell was lucky to escape a red card in the match but didn’t escape the citing committee. Russell this week lost his appeal against a two-match ban for a dangerous tackle on Wales' Dan Biggar - leaving Dark Blues head coach Vern Cotter with a dilemma over his replacement. Scotland will also be without the talismanic Richie Gray.

Glasgow's Peter Horne has been given the nod to replace suspended stand-off Finn Russell for Scotland's RBS 6 Nations clash with Italy on Saturday. 

The Kiwi had to decide between the inform duo of Horne and Edinburgh's Greig Tonks, but it is the Warriors fly-half who has been told he will collect his seventh cap when the Azzurri visit Murrayfield.

Horne's inclusion is one of four changes to the side beaten 26-23 by Wales two weeks ago. Glasgow's Tommy Seymour takes Tim Visser's place on the wing while Scotstoun teammate Tim Swinson comes in for injured lock Richie Gray.

Prop Euan Murray, who missed the Wales clash for religious reasons, reclaims his place as Geoff Cross drops out, while Tonks is left to take consolation from being named amongst the substitutes.

Scotland will hope to bounce back from successive defeats to France and then Warren Gatland's men as they host the Italians in Edinburgh - a match already looking like the Wooden Spoon decider.

Cotter has also made four changes to the replacements, with props Ryan Grant and Cross replacing Gordon Reid (knee) and Jon Welsh (hand), who were injured against Wales.

Promising young Edinburgh duo Ben Toolis and Hamish Watson are poised to make their senior international debuts having taken the places of injured lock Jim Hamilton (groin) and back-row Alasdair Strokosch on the bench.

Replacement scrum-half Sam Hidalgo-Clyne has also completed his return to play protocols to retain his place in the squad, having shown signs of delayed concussion after the match against Wales.

For Italy, it was a much stronger showing against England. Remarkably, the Italians have scored a try on every visit tom Twickenham – a remarkable achievement for the perennial under-achievers.  Dog lover Martin Castrogiovani will comically be absent form the clash – the result of fourteen stitches in a facial dog bite. 

Sergio Parisse was back to his brilliant best against England and once again looks the form No.8 in the Northern Hemisphere. The Azzurri have won seven and lost 15 of their 22 meetings with Scotland, their last triumph against the Scots was in Rome three years ago. Italy has won just once at Murrayfield, a 37-17 triumph in 2007.

Italy coach Jacques Brunel has included two uncapped players as part of six changes to his starting XV to face Scotland in Saturday's match at Murrayfield.

Benetton Treviso centre Enrico Bacchin and Zebre winger Michele Visentin will earn their first caps. Bacchin is to step in for Andrea Masi, who is injured. Zebre's Dario Chistolini will replace Martin Castrogiovanni.

Zebre prop Matias Aguero will replace Alberto De Marchi, who drops to the bench. Aguero also started in the Azzurri's opening defeat to Ireland in Rome.

Joshua Furno is to come on in place of veteran lock Marco Bortolami, who is side-lined with a muscular injury while Benetton Treviso flanker Simone Favaro returns to play for the Azzurri for the first time since the Autumn test against Argentina in November.
Favaro takes over from veteran Mauro Bergamasco, who has been dropped.

Its hard to see history repeating itself in Edinburgh and one has to feel Scotland with home advantage will have just enough to make it home to victory. Euan Murray will be a welcome return at prop, as Italy will seek to test highland resolve in the set piece. Alex Dunbar has been a silent revelation at centre and Seymour offers more penetration from wing than the more one-dimensional Visser. 

The game’s outcome will again dependent on who gets the first try and who converts the most penalties. Italy will have watched Wales win the aerial battle against the Scots and expect full back Luke McLean and Outside Half Haimona to be peppering Scotland with high balls and hoping for a Scottish error.

I expect the Scottish scrum to be under pressure and a lot will depend on just how Peter Horne handles the pressure. I think Scotland have enough quality to grind out the win but don’t expect it to be pretty to watch. Closer than expected.

Scotland 26 Italy 19

FRANCE v WALES

Wales have won the last three Six Nations encounters between the countries and prevented France from scoring a try each time.  This meeting in Paris will be an interesting one with neither team firing on all cylinders so far this campaign.

As predicted, France ran Ireland fairly close and indeed could have almost got the draw in Dublin. The French however, do not seem to know what is their best team and they appeared to settle for running Ireland close rather than winning the game. Philippe Saint Andre clearly doesn’t seem to know what he is doing and the lack of ambition against Ireland was a truly bizarre approach to game management in my view.

Both France and Wales are struggling for consistency and results. Since the 2011 World Cup, France have posted a win ratio of just 40% whilst Wales have 50% during the same period. The French ratio is an extremely low return for a country, which has 14 top-flight teams to pick from, and an abundance of talent at their coach’s disposal.

They certainly looked like a better side once they made use of their bench in the second half. Rory Kockott was disappointing in Dublin. His distribution was slow and he never looked like controlling the game. He is out of the squad with a thigh injury, as well as wing Teddy Thomas, out with an ankle problem after two below-par performances, along with second row Pascal Papé who will miss the rest of this year's Six Nations serving a ten week ban for kneeing Ireland's Jamie Heaslip in a ruck last Saturday. 

Camille Lopez is still really finding his feet and France looked a much stronger proposition with Morgan Parra directing affairs from the scrums and breakdowns. Parra is another injury doubt and Saint Andre has called up Toulon scrum half Sebastien Tillous-Borde to boost France in their stuttering RBS 6 Nations campaign. The Toulon player is back from a knee injury after missing Les Bleus's first two outings and he paired up with fly-half Camille Lopez for last November's three test matches and the association proved solid throughout.

Wesley Fofana still looks horribly lost at centre and the spirit of the great French masters of the midfield such as the sublime Phillipe Sella must be cringing at the tactic of bulk and bash from Mathieu Basteraud. 

In the pack, France dealt a scrumming lesson to Ireland again with Mike Ross certainly relieved to not be facing that again this season. Certainly Dubaty, Keyser, and Atonio added an extra dimension to France’s forward power and if they started the match maybe France would have seen a different result? Hard to call. Rumours of poor fitness abound.

One of the more interesting things to watch for this weekend will be the blitz defence battle. Both France and Wales are masters of this art form and France in particular caused Ireland all sorts of issues withy their speed off the line. 

At least Saint Andre has rung the changes for the visit of Wales with Basteraud dropping to the bench replaced by Remi Lamerat as one of five changes following the defeat in Dublin. Three other switches behind the scrum see starts for full-back Brice Dulin ahead of the stuttering Scott Spedding, wing Sofiane Guitoune for Teddy Thomas; and scrum-half Morgan Parra, for Rory Kockott.

The only change up-front is an enforced one, with Toulon lock Romain Taofifenua deputising for Pascal Papé

Wales returned to winning ways against Scotland in a tightly fought match. For me, Wales never looked like losing the game and seemed to always be able to step up a gear when required. Their ruthless game of putting Scotland to the sword during Finn Russell’s time in the sin bin perhaps the turning point of the match. Added to that their control of their kicking game – so different and controlled after the debacle against England – Wales were able to find the attacking edge and close out the win.

Coach Warren Gatland makes four changes to the team for France. George North returns to the starting line up with Liam Williams being retained in place of the stuttering Alex Cuthbert. Cuthbert has looked out of sorts and ideas all season whilst Williams was like a breath of fresh air and certainly gave Wales a more cutting edge.

Elsewhere – there are three changes in the forwards. In the front row, Gethin Jenkins retains his place after a much stronger showing against Scotland and is joined at prop by the returning Samson Lee while Scott Baldwin gets the nod at hooker in place of Richard Hibbard. Hibbard has only himself to blame, as he has been poor in both matches so far. His line out throwing has been suspect and Baldwin rightly gets the start. 

Jake Ball hasn’t impressed so far and Luke Charteris gets the 2nd row slot alongside Alun Wyn-Jones with no changes in the back row. Charteris who now ploughs his trade at Racing Metro in Paris; made an impressive cameo against Scotland and deserves the start. His ability to win line our ball and potentially disrupt the French line out give him a clear edge.

Many Welsh fans have been calling for Justin Tipuric to start ahead of Lydiate but I think Gatland has the selection right with the chop tacking specialist more likely to cause issues in the first 60 minutes than fellow Osprey Tipuric who remains a likely change off the bench. 

I can only see a tight game with strong defences, lots of penalties for both teams and only a single try. The Welsh scrum has been under severe pressure from the two games so far and that will only get worse in Paris. Any Welsh hopes must come form a solid line out platform and strong defence. Behind the pack, Wales do I believe; have the much stronger and more confident back line but will they stick to the usual “cementball” tactics or try and vary it with the flair we know the players have in abundance? The smart money is on more of the same from Wales and France will likely be up to the task of defending that in numbers. Whoever scores the try will win. 

Halfpenny has been up to his usual metronomic accuracy with the boot and Wales may shade it if France concedes too many penalties. This is almost becoming a “must win” for France and I think they will prove too strong for Wales on this occasion.

France 20 Wales 18

IRELAND V ENGLAND

The match of the round has an afternoon all to itself on Sunday in Dublin. This is probably the match which will decide the 2015 championship and Ireland will be desperate to avoid another home defeat to the Rose. The last big Dublin encounter in 2013 was a dour affair with England triumphing 12-6 with just four penalty goals. The game in 2015 will also be close and it is England who one feels have the greater pressure. 

Ireland will rightly be starting as favourites to record another home win. They have not been convincing in either of their matches so far. A hard worked grind in Rome was followed by a home win with no tries against the French. 

At the time of writing, the full Irish line up has not been revealed but I do not expect coach Joe Schmidt to make many changes. He is almost certain to stick with the tried and trusted team line up for tis crucial clash. 

His squad has come through wins over Italy and France in the opening two rounds largely unscathed and that allows Schmidt the luxury of being able to pick his side consistently.

The one major absentee is of course Jamie Heaslip, who broke three vertebrae against France, and is ruled out of action until the Wales game in round four at the earliest. Jordi Murphy will step into the breach and he is more than capable of causing England some serious problems.

The front row promises an intriguing battle. Joe Marler has been one of the most improved players at loose head and he will have watched Mike Ross seriously struggle against France.

Behind the scrum, Ireland has the sublime Sexton against George Ford. Advantage Ireland. The threequarters are well matched with Jonathan Joseph looking like the form centre and a real surprise in the tournament. The loss of Mike Brown to (yet) another concussion is a big blow to England although he hasn’t shown the form of last season. 

Stuart Lancaster will have been concerned by his team’s failure to really kick on from their win over Wales. They labored against Italy. Despite never being in doubt of winning, they never really raised their game to the meet the expectations of the fans and media and the end result was basically “job done” rather than a leap forward in progress towards the World cup.

Lancaster makes just two changes to the team, which started against Italy. Andy Goode comes in at Full back for Mike Brown, and Exeter’s Jack Nowell comes in on the wing for Gloucester’s Jonny May. Nowell was widely tipped for a return after some string performances recently for Exeter. Goode is a solid choice but I would have been more inclined to move Watson to Full back and bring in another winger. 

The only other change is Bath's Henry Thomas comes in for Kieran Brookes on the bench who has failed to recover form a hip injury.  

The pack stays as is then with Dylan Hartley getting the nod over Tom Youngs while Tom Croft, Mako Vunipola, and the evergreen Nick Easter add grunt off the bench as required.


The forward battle will be critical to success and I think both teams will try and tough it out but also try and play running rugby. 

Psychologically England has the edge with recent wins but Ireland will feel they have to lay down a marker here and they need a big performance this campaign.

I think England are going to get caught out by the best out half in Europe. Sexton will attempt to pin England in their 22 and force them into errors. However England do pose a significant threat and I see several tries in the match but I think the Irish will out battle them to win by at least five points.


Ireland 23 England 17