Just one week to
go to the opening matches at the start of the 2018 NatWest Six Nations, and
your correspondent is looking forward positively to what could be the tightest
competition in recent seasons. For the 19th running of the competition, it is
the first time in a while there are three, possibly four teams in contention
for the title.
Last year
saw the points system change, in a move to fall in line with domestic
competitions, where bonus points are awarded for scoring four tries or more and
losing by seven points or less. England topped the table and retained their
crown; however, they were denied the Grand Slam and the Triple Crown after
losing to Ireland in the last match of the tournament.
There was a close
battle for second with France, Ireland and Scotland all finishing on 14 points
with three wins, one try bonus point and one losing bonus point each.
Nevertheless, it was Ireland who had the best points difference ahead of France
and Scotland, with Wales in fifth and Italy were whitewashed while also picking
up the wooden spoon.
The controversial
bonus point system introduced last season could come into play as it home
advantage and attacking rugby could be the deciding factors in a tight title race.
There were 66
tries scored in the 15 matches of 2017 – an average of 4.4 per match. In 2017,
everything went down to the final match with England comfortably taking the
title with a five point margin in the final standings. One can only hope that
the good form shown by the Northern Hemisphere teams in the Autumn
internationals and the high standard of play in this season’s European
Champions Cup – will continue to allow us to have a championship to
remember.
One of the
alarming statistics this season is the number of first choice players missing
from all the teams. Between them they have 60 players either doubtful or
unavailable for at least the opening round. England led the way with 14
absentees, followed by Ireland on 13 and Wales, together with Scotland, on 10.
The new France coach, Jacques Brunel, is without nine players, although such is
his rush to change the dynamic of the French side, he would probably have
overlooked most of them, and Italy four. It is probably not coincidental that
the two countries with the lowest casualty rates were not involved in last
year’s Lions tour to New Zealand.
The relentless
demands of the modern game are taking their toll and player welfare is still
being disregarded. Wales, England, and Ireland are all suffering from the
super-long 2017/18 period with the British Lions tour also adding to the
demands on the game’s greatest performers. This really can’t continue and it’s
clear that the global season must be restructured.
With the 2019
World Cup rapidly approaching, all the coaches will be wanting to cement the
players to build on for that competition, and the injuries at least give some
of the lesser squad members an opportunity to perform and pencil themselves in
for the future. England and Ireland sit second and third in the world rankings,
a reason why the only two teams to have won the Six Nations since Wales in 2013
are expected to battle it out for the title at Twickenham, where England have
not lost in the tournament since Wales pipped them in 2012.
As usual, I have
spent a long time this winter watching and analysing players and coaching
selections for the national squads. Let’s take a brief look at the prospects of
each team this season:
IRELAND
Ireland had a
fantastic Autumn series with wins over Argentina, Fiji and South Africa -
strong performances and Coach Joe Schmidt took the opportunity to successfully
blood several new caps . The Irish provinces have once again shown they can
compete with Europe’s finest clubs and optimism is running high that Ireland
can win their 14th title after two seasons acting as bridesmaids to a resurgent
England.
Joe Schmidt has
lost some 13 squad players through injury and many such as mainstays Jerod
Payne and Sean O’Brien have little form and fitness ahead of the gruelling
7-week schedule.
Coach Schmidt
took the opportunity to blood several new players during the summer and Autumn
matches and will be encouraged by the options available to him in several
positions.
He is very likely
to have a new look centre partnership for the visit to Paris next weekend. The
absence of Garry Ringrose through injury makes Schmidt’s decision here a bit
more straightforward. The inclusion of the New Zealand born Bundee Aki, who
started against South Africa and Argentina, brings a little more grit
into midfield, his appetite and work-rate are second to none and he will
likely form a partnership with Robbie Henshaw. The Leinster man can move from
his usual first-centre role to his preferred outside berth where he has been
excelling for Leinster on their European run.
Chris Farrell,
remains a solid option as he started Ireland’s previous two games, and was
specifically name-checked by Schmidt after the win over the Pumas.
Ulster’s Jacob
Stockdale has been in fine form and his performances against South Africa and
Argentina have him in pole position to get the nod on the wing with the
experienced Keith Earls and Rob Kearney likely to take the other places in the
back three. The 21-year-old Stockdale has really stood out for a mediocre Ulster
team amongst their patchy performances of late. He has four tries
from four caps and the way he took his second score against Argentina
showed what he is capable of.
Sexton and Murray
were both outstanding on the Lions tour and will be the first-choice half backs
with Leinster’s Andrew Porter a solid understudy who started against Fiji and
has impressed recently in their European Cup and Pro14 performances.
In the forwards,
the front row of McGrath, Best and Furlong pretty much pick themselves. In the
boiler room, I would like to see Schmidt go with Iain Henderson and Devin Toner
although James Ryan’s time is coming, and Ultan Dillane in also in the
mix.
In the back row
Irish choices of experienced players are a little more limited with Munster
Captain Peter O’Mahoney a sure thing with two of the top four – Jamie
Heaslip and Sean O’Brien – out injured. Dan Leavy and CJ Stander will face
competition for the other places with Josh van der Flier, Jack Conan, or Jordi
Murphy all ready and able to step in.
Ireland start
away in Paris but after years of poor results there including a narrow 10-9
defeat in 2016, they will go into the game with confidence knowing they follow
up with three home games against Italy, Wales and Scotland before travelling to
Twickenham for the likely title decider.
Of the three home
games, only Scotland look any real threat. Wales are in definite rebuild mode
and have a poor record at the Aviva.
The game with
England looks like the title decider but like last season where Ireland spoiled
England’s Grand Slam – I see the reverse withy the Rose winning at home.
Ireland’s championship on points difference.
Prediction: 1st
(Champions)
ENGLAND
England achieved
back to back Six Nations titles and Eddie Jones’ team was the backbone of the
2017 British Lions. A winning summer tour in Argentina was followed by three
Autumn victories. England talked boldly of pulling away from their rivals this
autumn in their attempt to turn world rugby into a two-horse race with the All
Blacks, and three wins out of three duly allowed them to cement their spot at
No2 in the world rankings. But despite the convincing victory margins, the
performances never quite matched the rhetoric. Argentina made them look
ordinary for long periods and, truth be told, it needed every break to go their
way against Australia to maintain their mastery over the Wallabies before the
inevitable win over Samoa.
England have more
players, more money and better preparation than any other team so on paper at
least they should be walking towards a hat-trick of titles.
No team has
claimed three consecutive outright titles in 123 previous instalments of the
tournament and I believe that England’s best chance is taking an offensive
approach. However, casting a shadow over the whole Six Nations is the injury
crisis that is afflicting all participants and England are the hardest hit.
By the time their
title defence begins against Italy in Rome on Sunday week they could be missing
as many as 18 players, but England are better equipped to deal with the
losses than any other team. The net result is that England have named eight
uncapped players in their initial 35-man squad.
A succession of
injuries and suspensions - including to star players such Billy Vunipola,
Elliot Daly and Nathan Hughes - have forced Eddie Jones to bring in a host of
new faces.
Saracens wing
Nathan Earle, Northampton centre Harry Mallinder and Harlequins full-back
Marcus Smith are the rookie backs included.
Exeter prop Alec
Hepburn, Harlequins prop Lewis Boyce, Newcastle flanker Gary Graham, Bath back
row Zach Mercer and Bath hooker Tom Dunn make up the new faces in the forwards.
Mercer is no
longer included as an apprentice in recognition of the injuries at number eight
to Vunipola and Hughes, leaving Smith as the only player featuring in that
capacity. Flanker James Haskell has a four-week ban that will rule him out
of the opening two rounds of the Six Nations.
England’s big
vulnerability is back row. I believe it was that crucial area which cost them a
Grand Slam in 2017 and it could again be the weak point of an England challenge
this championship.
Whilst some teams
struggle to find one playmaker skilled and composed enough to pull the strings
at Test level, England have a cupboard that is overflowing. The
partnership of George Ford and Owen Farrell not only takes the pressure off of
Ford at 10 to do everything himself, but it also allows
for England to split their back line at scrums, always have a proper
ball-handler at first receiver in multiple phases and gives them multiple
kicking options. There is also dynamic depth, with Alex Lozowski, Henry Slade
and apprentice Marcus Smith to call upon if required
England start off
with an easy trip to Rome and then face Wales at home. Wales are not the
physical force they were two or three seasons ago and despite a good recent
record at HQ, England should secure another win before tough away trips to
Murrayfield and Paris before that final decider against Ireland.
I think England
will trip up at Murrayfield and it will come down to bonus points to decide the
title. Not quite there…
Final Position:
2nd – Bridesmaids!
WALES
Coming into the
2018 Six Nations, there is a positivity around Wales’ chances that has been
absent for the last two or three tournaments.
Head coach Warren
Gatland is one of the most polarising figures in rugby and there has been no
lack of criticism of him and his coaching staff from the Welsh public over the
last few years, with the trophies having dried up and the Grand Slams of 2008
and 2012 seeming a long time ago.
It was hardly an
all-conquering autumn for Wales, either, having just snuck
past Georgia and South Africa and suffered defeat at the
hands of Australia and New Zealand, but there was an ambition to
their play that at least gave fans hope of seeing a more clinical and
multi-dimensional Wales side over the next few seasons.
This ambition,
coupled with the excellent play of the Scarlets, the newly-crowned team of the
people; has created a belief that Wales can go further this year and
make more of an impact in the Six Nations. With bonus points again a factor in
this year’s competition, Gatland’s men will be keen to top their tally of eight
from last season, a figure which was just half that of the tries scored by
England, the 2017 champions.
The enviable
resources that Wales have in their back-row has been one of the consistent
strengths of the side during Gatland’s tenure and those options are still
formidable, despite injury ruling out Sam Warburton and Taulupe Faletau. Ross
Moriarty and Justin Tipuric will be at the front of the queue to start,
whilst Scarlets flanker James Davies is in line to win his first
international cap. Ellis Jenkins, Josh Navidi and Aaron Shingler are also
impactful options. Navidi in particular was very impressive during the Autumn
whilst Aaron Shingler has been on fire for the Scarlets but has yet been unable
to translate that form on the bigger stage.
Another area of
the team hit by a significant injury is the three-quarter line. Wales do
however, have the option of midfield versatility. With Jonathan Davies unavailable, but there
is plenty of scope for Wales to keep opposition sides guessing with
their midfield strategy. Hadleigh Parkes has been in scintillating form with
the Scarlets and has been dovetailing nicely with Scott Williams,
Owen Williams is the secondary playmaker option that Wales have not
had for quite some time and Owen Watkin is a hard-runner who can keep his side
on the front-foot.
The one area
where Wales have a significant weakness is at fly half. There is no recognised
Test fly-half in the squad with Dan Biggar side lined for the opening three
rounds and Rhys Priestland suffering from a hamstring
injury, Wales will have to go into their matches with
Scotland, England and Ireland with a relatively
inexperienced fly-half. Rhys Patchell and Gareth Anscombe would look to be the
front-runners right now, but Owen Williams could also be moved inside from the
centre berth he occupied in the autumn.
They are all
capable of doing an excellent job, but those three fixtures are quite the deep
end to be thrown in, especially with the contests
against England and Ireland coming at Twickenham and the
Aviva Stadium respectively and regular starting scrum-half Rhys Webb also side
lined.
The news that
Liam Williams suffered a relapse in his recovery from an abdominal injury was a
real blow for Wales. He is in a race against time to be fit for the tournament
opener against Scotland, but there is a worst-case scenario that he will have
to have surgery and could miss the entire tournament. George North and Hallam
Amos are both only just returning from injury and a way off the sharpness you
would want from your starting wings. There will be plenty of attention on Steff
Evans, who was extremely disappointing is his Autumn performances and in
mystery man Josh Adams.
The Scarlets have
a good pathway and an excellent reputation for developing the local talent in
west Wales, but the form winger in Warren Gatland’s squad is the one that got
away.
Josh Adams came through
Llanelli Rugby Club and the Scarlets, who he represented (one match to be
exact) before being encouraged to seek fame and fortune elsewhere. He pitched
up at Worcester Warriors at the start of season 2015-16, but not for long.
Worcester loaned him to National One side Cinderford and it was there that he
learned his stock in trade of try-scoring.
He only made his
first Premiership start for Worcester in December of 2016 and in little over a
year he has progressed to the biggest of the big leagues. It is easy to see why
he has impressed Warren Gatland. Adams has serious pace and is physical with
it, but perhaps his best attribute is anticipation because the winger runs some
wonderful support lines and almost inevitably pops up at the end of any movement
to finish it off. He is a natural, predatory poacher. He tops the try scoring
in the Aviva Premiership with nine touchdowns, one ahead of Falcons’ Vereniki
Goneva and Scotland’s own Byron McGuigan of Sale Sharks, who both boast eight.
Adams has achieved
that in a set-piece orientated Worcester club that is struggling at the wrong
end of the table. Just imagine what he might achieve in an attacking team at
the top of their game.
Again, like the
fly-half situation, both Evans and Adams have the capability to be fine Test
players, but they are inexperienced at this level.
It’s almost a
shame that Wales’ evolution in the way they play is occurring at the same time
that they get their toughest Six Nations fixture
schedule. Wales may have three games at home this season, but their
two away fixtures – England and Ireland – are arguably the two
toughest fixtures in the tournament.
As encouraging as
Wales’ potential is, it is difficult to see them emerging from London or Dublin
with a win. Three wins from their three home games is certainly possible,
although Scotland are looking threatening, too, and that game is by
no means a given.
It is a boring
prediction but a 3rd or 4th place finish, away from the challenge for
the title, seems most likely for Wales at this point. If they can see
off Scotland, Italy and France in Cardiff and at
least be competitive with England and Ireland, that will probably
equate to a decent tournament for Gatland’s men.
Three wins and
3rd place.
Final Position:
3rd
SCOTLAND
A truly
sensational Autumn. Scotland won two and came breathlessly close to beating the
world champions New Zealand in a campaign of energy, ambition and, yes, joy, as
they rose to an all-time high of No. 5 in the world rankings.
Hats off to
Gregor Townsend whose arrival as coach with the Glasgow template has freed the
shackles and delivered a side who can shred teams in attack. Prop James Bhatti
was just one of those to shine in the riotous court of King Gregor. Murrayfield
on bad days can be a mausoleum but with the Scots scoring 16 tries in three
games it was rocking. It will be interesting to see if they can pull off the
same stunts away from home in the Six Nations.
Scotland’s last
win in the tournament was in 1999, the last year it was the Five Nations, but
for the past two years the player of the tournament has been Scottish.
Full-back Stuart Hogg has been a fundamental for the fifth ranked
side in the world and having returned from injury, he could be the key to
victory in the competition.
The Glasgow player,
who has been on two Lions tours, got injured before the final test of their
Autumn International series and was side lined for two months. However, he
returned to action for Glasgow in the Champions Cup scoring one try and being a
part of the build-up play in the other two.
Even though Hogg
was injured before the Autumn test against Australia, Scotland had an extremely
successful series. They beat Samoa 44-38 before taking New Zealand to the wire,
ultimately losing 17-22 and thrashing Australia by a score line of 53-24. What
made these results in the Autumn more impressive was the fact that many of
their experienced players were out with injuries.
The creativity of
their backline, including Hogg has been essential in their attacking play and
the tries have flowed as a result; however, this attack-minded play also means
that they can also concede many tries and coach Gregor Townsend will
be hoping that this year they are able to stick to their game-plan.
Townsend has
named four uncapped players in his Scotland squad The potential debutants are
Edinburgh trio Blair Kinghorn (full-back), scrum-half Nathan Fowles and prop
Murray McCallum, plus Glasgow Warriors prop D’arcy Rae.
John Barclay
continues as captain as Greig Laidlaw returns to the squad after recovering
from an ankle injury. Worcester back-rower David Denton returns to the squad,
as does Edinburgh centre Mark Bennett, who has recently returned after a
long-term knee injury. There is no place for hooker Fraser Brown, who has
suffered a number of head injuries this season, but there is a return for Scott
Lawson of Newcastle Falcons.
Scotland start in
Cardiff, needing to overcome a poor away record. If Scotland finally
breakthrough in Cardiff, then they can dream of being real title contenders.
The Six Nations has become more grind than grand, pumped-up players piling into
each other, but Scotland put cracks in the mould last year, as they had to
without overwhelming might up front.
I don’t see
Scotland winning away in Ireland but they might just spoil England’s party and
if they believe they may just squeak it in Cardiff.
Final Position:
4th
FRANCE
One significant
victory – controversially winning the right to stage the 2023 World Cup – but
otherwise it was an unremitting diet of despair across the Channel.
A winless autumn,
which included the embarrassment of a draw in Paris against Japan which would
have been a defeat had Yu Tamura landed a straightforward late conversion,
stretches their barren run to six games without a victory.
In football you famously
never write off the Germans and there has been a similar approach down the
years to a French rugby team that is equally a magnet for cliché. Swap
“Teutonic efficiency” for “Gallic flair” and you are immediately transported
into the well-worn starting point for assessing the chances of the eternal
enigmas that are Les Bleus.
Which French team
will turn up? A different animal with the Paris sun on their backs... Many have
been willing to write off the French this year, though, and there is plenty of
empirical evidence to support that.
More lumbering
than flamboyant these days. “French
rugby in disarray” is another of those comforting clichés forever close at hand
and, currently, impossible to avoid.
Wealthy clubs
grow ever more powerful. Veteran coach Guy Noves, handicapped by a system which
places club above country, compounded the problem with erratic selection and an
out-of-date game plan which eventually cost him and he was unceremoniously
sacked last month.
Toulon centre
Mathieu Bastareaud was also included but the EPCR have announced that he will
serve a three-week ban after being cited for homophobic comments.
The charge was
upheld and he received a six-week ban, subsequently reduced after a guilty
plea, for "verbally abusing Benetton flanker Sebastian Negri Da
Oleggio" in last week's Champions Cup tie.
Police recently
raided the FFR to investigate claims of favouritism by president Bernard
Laporte towards Montpellier. You really couldn’t make it up!
The plot twists
are so labyrinthine that you wouldn’t be surprised to see Lieutenant Gilou
Escoffier from the BBC4 Saturday night Parisian cop grit-fest Spiral preparing
to pack down in the front row of the scrum with a half-smoked Gitanes in the
corner of his mouth.
Amidst the
mayhem, however, France could be about unleash a new superstar in the form of
19-year-old Bordeaux stand-off Matthieu Jalibert. The fact his club coach,
former Italy boss Jacques Brunel, has ascended to replace Noves as national
boss adds to the expectation that the teenage tyro will start at ten against
Ireland, with Camille Lopez injured. Jalibert would be following in the
footsteps of another hotly-tipped young stand-off, Anthony Belleau of Toulon,
who is just two years older. His failure to ignite played a part in Noves
losing his job but expert observers can barely contain their exhilaration at
the prospect of seeing Jilabert on the international stage.
His breathtaking
breaks and irrepressible elan could be the spark which propels from no-hopers
to champions. How very French that would be.
Jacques Brunel is
an experienced coach and will know how to manipulate, control and contrive a
good environment for the players to go forward. If you put down each of the
teams on paper and you looked at the individuals in the French team you would
say they’ve got a strong team. Brunel has been coaching professionally for over
20 years, had a stint as assistant under Laporte and he’ll bring to them a
wealth of experience, some calmness and assurance about the style of play.
France have
recalled scrum-half Morgan Parra with head coach Jacques Brunel also naming six
uncapped players in a 32-man squad. Uncapped Danny Priso, Cedate Gomes Sa,
Felix Lambey, Marco Tauleign and Geoffrey Palis represzent some of the new
blood.
Parra, 29, last
played for his country in October 2015 and did not feature under former France
coach Guy Noves, who was sacked in December following a poor run of results.
Parra and
full-back Brice Dulin will both however miss the opening game with injury.
Astonishingly
France are above only Italy in the betting, at odds as high as 20-1. A virtuoso
match-winning debut from Jalibert would cut that significantly and have the
French cockerel heading to Murrayfield for game two with a strut in its stride
once again.
Veterans Francois
Trinh-Duc and Louis Picamoles are the most notable absentees in Brunel's squad.
A year to build
on but no breakthrough.
Final Position:
5th
ITALY
Some improved
results in the Pro14 from the Italian sides raised hopes of a spike in performance
from the Azzurri during the Autumn, but alas not. The sick man of Europe coughs
and splutters on, starting 2018 with just one win from 11 Tests. That came
against Fiji in Sicily, but there was little else to raise spirits in a
three-match tour around their own country with a humiliating hammering against
South Africa in Padova.
Italy scored just
one try, in those three games, against Fiji in Catania. In 2017 no Tier One
nation scored fewer tries than the Azzurri, 13 in 11 matches.
They came away
try less three times, against Scotland in the Six Nations (29-0 in
Murrayfield), and against the Pumas and the Springboks in the autumn
internationals. Yet in November Italy’s lineout and scrum were just as good as
the Irish ones and they were better than anybody else in lineout steals.
Their possession
numbers were excellent, but they made little ground with ball in hand and very
few players managed to make clean breaks.
On the bench
Matteo Minozzi watched while his team-mates crashed into the other team’s
defence like mosquitos on a car windscreen. At 21 he had just moved up into the
Zebre line-up and Conor O’Shea put him on for five minutes as a blood
replacement during the Fiji game. Then he collected a few more minutes against
Argentina and South Africa, but his talent remained for the most part hidden.
He might,
however, turn out to be Italy’s secret weapon in the Six Nations. Small and
fast he is a natural game-breaker. Last season he was top try scorer in Italy’s
domestic league (The Eccellenza) and with his 16 touch downs for Calvisano he
caught the eye of Conor O’Shea, who might now decide to give him the No.15
jersey and let him unleash his speed.
A natural talent,
Minozzi is, of course, short of international experience and, at 1.75 and less
than 80 kilos, he might lack bulk and power, but Italy is in such desperate
need of spark and flair that this can easily be overlooked. With Zebre, in the
last few months, he has proved his bursts of speed can be lethal.
The Parma
franchise has not actually won many matches in the Pro14 but they have scored a
respectable 31 tries in the 13 games played so far, nine more than the Ospreys
in the same conference, seven more than Treviso, and just two less than
Edinburgh in the other group.
This, of course,
is not just down to the full-back’s ability, but he has slotted perfectly into
the backline and, with Michele Campagnaro still nursing a broken knee and
Leonardo Sarto also injured, he could well be the Azzurri’ surprise weapon in
the Six Nations. Last season Italy’s game plan was to kick deep and apply
pressure, but these tactics failed and they got thrashed by Ireland and
Scotland. Wales were the only team not to come away with the four-try bonus
against the Azzurri in the tournament.
When defence
coach, and strategy mentor, South African Brendan Venter went back home in
spring to help his home nation, Conor O’Shea and his staff decided to give
their approach an overhaul and try to play with more ball in hand. Has it
worked? Not exactly. The Azzurri maintained possession but still didn’t score.
Winger Sarto epitomised the problem. A game-breaker with the Glasgow Warriors
he looked lost with Italy.
O’Shea, in the
past 15 months, has been trying to build the system, rather than the house
itself, putting on for the players everything they need to reach their full
potential. The academies are now working more closely with the two Pro14
franchises and with the national squad, the structure that is being implemented
to promote a high-performance route is going to bear fruit. In this season’s
Six Nations squad, at least 15 of the 34 initially selected will be new to the
tournament and a dozen of them have come through the academies. Minozzi, of
course, is one of them, but also Giovanni Licata, 21, a very talented back row
forward, and Renato Giammarioli, 23, a flanker with the speed of a winger. They
both made their debut in November but could be fresh legs in a new-look Italy
where, at No.10, Carlo Canna has still the cards to surprise and create but must
be left free to follow his instincts. The Six Nations will be the ultimate
challenge for him and his half-back partner Marcello Violi.
At 34, Sergio
Parisse is starting his 14th Six Nations. If he plays in all five games this
year he will equal Brian O’Driscoll’s record of 65 appearances in the
tournament. Conor O’Shea said he has had to kick-start a machine which had been
stalled for a good 20 years. He might be right, but only results will tell. In
the Six Nations nothing else matters.
Keep dreaming…
Final Position:
6th
