Final Weekend – All to play for!

Final Weekend – All to play for!

What a great tournament the 2012 RBS Six Nations has been! One of the classics with many close and tense encounters and a very high standard of rugby being played. It is sad in some ways then that it has to end but we have a final weekend to savour with three outstanding fixtures to look forward to. I have been running at 66% prediction rate this tournament. Not great but better than many of the newspaper columnists so lets assess how the runners and riders line up for the final furlong:

ITALY v SCOTLAND

Wooden Spoon game as predicted with Scotland with their backs against the wall with a tense finale in the Stadio Olympico. The scots showed good form for 60 minutes of last weekend’s encounter in Dublin but fell away badly in the final quarter. Richie Gray has been the stand out 2^nd row all season and Scotland will need to rely on him winning lots of line out ball and then get their mobile back row tearing forward. De Luca will add steel at Centre with Max Evans returning to the wing. It will all be settled up front and Scotland will struggle in scrums and they have to starve Italy of any ball to have a chance. Italy by contrast have been very good at frustrating teams – Wales being the latest to find Italy hard to break down. They have a world-class back row and that is where they will want to front up and take the game to Scotland. Burton is retained at Outside half and his form and standard has been woeful all tournament. Italy have to drive it through eth pack and grind Scotland down. Andy Robinson will be nervously pacing up and down and will have no fingernails left at the end. Scotland to hang on in a tight game.

Italy 16 Scotland 18

WALES V FRANCE

The big one and championship decider. Wales need to lose by 20 pts and England win by 20 pts to deny them the title. That looks unlikely but will Wales have the mental strength to handle winning what would be there third Grand Slam in 8 seasons? The answer is an emphatic YES! France have nothing bur pride to play for having had two successive poor home performances. They got off to slow starts against both Ireland and England and paid the penalty – so a fast start is essential here. More chopping and changing see 5 changes with Yachvili getting the nod at scrum half and Beauxis at outside half. Some odd changes see Fofana on the wing and Florian Fritz recalled at Centre. Strange as France don’t seem to have the defensive strength to make changes like this at this stage. The French three quarters have been all at sea and a bit Marie Celeste in the defensive line and tackling department. They will struggle with power and flair of the Welsh backs. Up front, it’s a different story and the recall of Servat and the giant Attoub will be looking to disrupt the Welsh Lion’s front row. A tight battle in back row will mean the winning team will be the one with the majority of possession. For Wales, the return of Captain Warburton is a major boost. The Welsh back row is truly world class with only Australia and New Zealand close to having the abilities in defence and attack shown by Lydiate, Faletau and Warburton. Tipuric is unlucky to not even make the bench but Ryan Jones – for many the unsung hero of this welsh side offers more options and will undoubtedly see some action in the second half. The Welsh are still bruised by their World Cup loss to France and will have a point to prove. I think Wales will dominate the play but will once again struggle to convert it to points. Goal kicking will be critical for both teams. A lot of pundits have said Wales have got worse as the tournament has progressed. I don’t agree. Wales have learned to win ugly and that is how great teams are built. Gatland will be playing down all the hype and Wales will have the home crowd to see them home. Expect Welsh backs to be flying but a tighter score line than many think. Welsh Grand Slam!

Wales 18 France 16

ENGLAND V IRELAND

The luck of the Irish! Or in this competition the un-luck of the Irish! Ireland were desperately close against Wales and should have shut France out in Paris. They dominated the weaker teams Scotland and Italy and have the psychological advantage of winning 7 of the last 8 six nations encounters against England. The excellent Donnacha Ryan has meant that they haven’t missed O’Connell. The Irish line out has shown largely metronomic precision and they will want to win as much ball as possible. O’Brien returns to the back row in the only change from the win over Scotland. Sexton has had a quiet Six Nations and is due a big game. It will be very interesting to watch and compare Sexton and Farrell. Both look likely Lions selections and who has the better game on Saturday could decide the match. The Irish centres have badly missed Brian O’Driscoll and England will be looking to unleash Tuigali and get their backs moving to prize open a small advantage. Robshaw and Croft were both excellent against France and England will be looking to ram home an advantage at the break downs, as both packs look evenly matched. Very even in front row, Ireland having the better boiler room and England having the better back row. Dickson needs a good game and get quick ball to Farrell. Foden will be again solid in the back three and England will give this a real good go. A win and Lancaster will be a shoe in for full time coach. I think the game will be very tight and who will be the hungrier team – more eager to win? I think Ireland are marginally the better side and will scrape home to break English hearts once again at HQ.

England 19 Ireland 22

Time for the real Men to stand up!

Round 4 of the 2012 RBS Six Nations sees two tight games and a real test of strength and belief in the third game. Who will be the winners and losers in this weekend’s matches?

WALES v ITALY

Wales will go into this match with the weight of the nation’s expectations upon them. It is clear the Welsh public believe that another Grand Slam is on the cards and Wales will have a nervy time against Italy in Cardiff. I have to admit some surprises in the Welsh selections. Matthew Rees becomes the third Welsh hooker to start this championship. This is a clearly a weak area for Wales and the poor line out stats clearly show this. Wales have now used 5 hookers in the past 12 months. I am glad to see Rees return but his lack of match fitness will be a real test. The Welsh front row has been outstanding this season and Gethin Jenkins becomes the third player to captain Wales this tournament. He and Adam Jones have been dominating front rows and I see Wales having a stiff test but should again been too strong up front for Italy. With Same Warburton carrying an injury, Justin Tipuric gets another chance at 7. He played very well in Dublin and is a solid replacement that will maintain Wales back row dominance they have shown against all sides this season. Jamie Roberts is a real surprise selection. Injured against England, I would have thought Wales need him fit and well to play France and Scott Williams will be bitterly disappointed not to start especially after his try against England. Italy looks a team in disarray and when your captain already writes you off in the press, and then it is difficult to see much of a threat. Italy were quite simply awful; against Ireland and Wales will have no difficulty against the Azzuri. Lo Cicero will cause some problems in the front row and will earn his 94^th cap. Burton has been hesitant and weak at kicking all season and if he does the same aimless kicking game against Wales then North and Cuthbert could run riot through the pedestrian Italian backs. Wales by a cantor.

Wales 30 Italy 9

IRELAND v SCOTLAND

Last chance saloon for the Scots and their ailing coach Andy Robinson. Scotland have been bitterly disappointing and it is difficult to see them triumphing in Dublin. Having said that, the same was true two years ago when the Scots pulled off a shock win in Dublin. This season, Scotland really have been disappointing in attack despite some stand out performances by individuals in the pack. Denton and Gray have been very strong all season and have been the stand out players for Scotland. In the absence of O’Connell, Ireland’s line out may falter and that could give Scotland reasonable ball. De Luca was the best Scottish player against France and the exciting Hogg also gets another outing at Full back. For Ireland, Rory best – a true Ulsterman through and through – will wear the Captains band in Dublin. A well deserved honour for the most consistent home nations hooker. Losing Conor Murray is a big blow to quick Irish ball and their backs haven’t exactly set the world alight apart for the defensive running of Kearney and Bowe’s lively pace on the wing. Earls has looked slow and cumbersome, Darcy looks past his sell by date for me. Ireland will be confident after running France so close but really they should have won in Paris. Expect the Irish to be too tricky for the Scots and I expect a narrow but decisive Irish win.

Ireland 23 Scotland 19

FRANCE v ENGLAND

England will take real heart form their performance against Wales. They have a fantastic record in Paris and I think England will once again triumph over a misfiring French side. England have struggled to get a real attaching platform all tournament but the return of the beast – Tuigali – against Wales showed everyone they have a good chance to break open defenses. Farrell looks assured and confident at 10, Barritt strong in defense at centre and Strettle quick and elusive once he gets the ball. I am surprised that Ashton gets another game as he has looked clearly out of form and confidence. In the pack, England were taught a lesson in back row play by Wales but the English second row is starting to come to form. Botha was good against Wales – his best game in a white shirt – and England can cause issues assuming a solid platform. As for France, their front row will cause England some heartache and if England can’t contain the French back row then they will have real problems. However, the French defensive set up looks very suspect. It was a real shambles against Ireland and one cannot see it improving in 7 days. Why drop Parra? A very odd decision. Beauxis has come on the field in the past two games and shown nothing to inspire confidence. Outside Half looks a real talent gap and weak area in France at the moment and whilst Trinh-Duc is hardly inspirational; he is a far better player than the ponderous and slow Beauxis. A very strange decision to change halfbacks. Aurelien Rougerie has kept his place despite some very poor judgement against Ireland and erratic passing. England will target him and hope to follow Tommy Bowe with another interception try. I really don’t get the French selection logic. England must have been rubbing their hands with glee as the French selection was announced and they will be hoping their confidence self-destructs again. I believe England will cause a lot of French penalties and will build on their strong defensive showing against Wales. Another English triumph in Paris!

France 16 England 19

Aftermath

Losing with dignity

Very disappointed with David Strettle. He hasn’t stopped bellyaching about not being given the try and two of his comments border on extreme whinging. The epoitome of the whinging pom!

“the strange thing for me was that I was hoping the touch judge might have seen it because our physio was standing next to him and he says it was grounded.”

Get real son. You don’t expect your team Physio to say the opposite. Is he really suggesting that the Touch Judge should have asked the team Physio?

“If its inconclusive you have to go with the attacking team.”

Since when? If its inconclusive its no try. PERIOD. You could argue Walsh should have gone back for the penalty but he did the same to Wales 6 minutes earlier when he indicated a penalty and then 1 minute later allowed England to clear the line without ever saying “advantage over”. Grow up.

Strettle - you demean your team’s great performance and you shame the famous shirt you are wearing. This isn’t football so lets just grow up and move on. You lost.

Are we watching the same game?

It never ceases to amaze me how “professional” journalists or pundits can watch the same game or group of players and can rate players poles apart. Take the epic England v Wales encounter at Twickenham last Saturday. A fabulous game kept both sets of supporters interested and it wouldn’t be these two teams without some element of controversy at the end.

I bought several newspapers on Sunday to read the relevant reports and see how other people viewed the game. The range of ratings on certain players truly astounds me. Lets pick out a few examples:

Rhys Priestland – he had a shocking game in my eyes a 5 at best. Lets see the ratings:

Wales on Sunday (Delme Parfitt) 5

Sunday Times (Stephen Jones) 5

Sunday Telegraph (Paul Ackford) 7

Sun on Sunday (Steven Howard) 2

An average <5 from 4 columnists. 7 from Ackford? You have to be kidding.

Geoff Parling – Debut start in English 2^nd row. Didn’t look anything special for me. 6 at best.

Sunday Times (Stephen Jones) 6

Sunday Telegraph (Paul Ackford) 8

Sun on Sunday (Steven Howard) 8

Average of 7.33 from 3 columnists although Jones looks about right to me.

Ian Evans – Welsh 2^nd Row. Probably had his best game – worth an 8 for me.

Wales on Sunday (Delme Parfitt) 8

Sunday Times (Stephen Jones) 9

Sunday Telegraph (Paul Ackford) 6

Sun on Sunday (Steven Howard) 7

Real range – average of 4 columnists here of 7.5. Again Ackford looks out of touch.

Sam Warburton – deservedly man of the match. A definite 9.

Wales on Sunday (Delme Parfitt) 7

Sunday Times (Stephen Jones) 7

Sunday Telegraph (Paul Ackford) 9

Sun on Sunday (Steven Howard) 8

Average of 7.75 – not bad consensus.

Chris Robshaw – England Captain. I thought he played okay but was completely outclassed by Warburton. A 6 from me.

Sunday Times (Stephen Jones) 8

Sunday Telegraph (Paul Ackford) 6

Sun on Sunday (Steven Howard) 5

Average of 6.3 sounds about right. Again how Stephen Jones can rate him above Warburton is truly astounding. Was he watching the game?

Conclusion – we all see what we want to see and our national preferences will always play a part. For me I was just delighted to see a close game played in the right spirit on the pitch. No punching, no foul play, just a good tight game of rugby and that can only be good for all of us.

Let's get Ready to Rumble!

Six Nations Week Three – Let’s Get Ready to Rumble!

This weekend’s games see three games, which will probably decide where the title is going this season. The milder weather should see us avoid another fiasco after the ridiculous scenario of week two where the France v Ireland game was called off 7 minutes before kick off. The Six nations committee has shown they have absolutely no interest in spectator welfare. The ludicrous situation where games are being scheduled in February at 9pm in the evening came back to haunt them and now the rescheduled match is on a Sunday! That shows how out of touch they are. That gives both teams the shortest possible recovery, and clearly shows total contempt for the supporters. Its bad enough travelling from Limerick, Tipperary or Galway to Paris without having to travel twice and the second time on a Sunday afternoon.

Anyway rant over its now back to this weekend’s matches.

Ireland v Italy

After not playing in Paris, Ireland will be glad to be back in Dublin to face Italy. Italy had England’s throat in their grasp but let them get away and saw the penalty. Ireland never really got on top of Wales but they were within seconds of winning the match. I believe they will have far too much quality for Italy but expect a bruising encounter upfront. Mike Ross and Cian Healy will have a torrid time with the Italian front row but their line out should be at its metronomic best to give Ireland lots of quality ball. The Irish back row didn’t impress at all against Wales. O’Brien and Ferris were muted and Heaslip also had an off day. They need to do better. As for Italy Burton is a massive disappointment kicking everything away so expect to see a lot of Irish counter attacks with Kearney at the forefront. Expect Parisse to lead the Italian back row charge and for Italy to have any chance of an upset their game will be won or lost in the pack. Sexton will have lots of ball, the Irish threequarters have too much pace and I expect Ireland to run out comfortable winners.

Ireland 23 Italy 9

England v Wales

The game of the tournament and looking like the championship decider. Both teams come here unbeaten, with Wales looking for a Triple Crown. The favorites tag won’t suit Wales at all and they have a dismal record at HQ. They will welcome back Warburton and Alun Wynne-Jones into their pack. The critical areas for Wales will be Line out and scrum. Welsh line outs have been absolutely dire. As someone said the other day “Wales haven’t had a line out since Allan Martin”. Those words are sadly true, and Wales will be concerned to retain the ball. Ken Owens is very raw at hooker. Philips dominated Ireland with his role as a ninth forward but he doesn’t get the Welsh backs moving that well, as the ball is so slow. Priestland has been aimlessly kicking possession away and he if does that again, Wales could be in big trouble. Wales didn’t play well against Scotland but ran out comfortable enough winners due to a few minutes of brilliance. They have that ability that England lack and that could see them home again. Warburton’s skills at Open side will need to be at their best and Wales need to get the ball out to their huge threequarter line. North and Cuthbert are both huge wingers, and Roberts and Davies will severely test the English defense. For England, two “lucky” wins – both by charge down tries. Farrell takes over at 10 and Dickson and Morgan will add considerably more depth to England’s attacking options than Dowson and the bitterly disappointing Youngs. Tuigali is back but how fit is he? Barritt’s defensive skills will be tested to the full and Farrell may be an accomplished goal kicker but is untested at outside half at this level. Robshaw will be either hero or villain depending upon how he marshals Warburton. If he gets on top – then England will grind it out. I think Wales will not secure enough quality possession and will give away a lot of penalties. England won’t score a try but the scoreboard will keep ticking over. The Welsh nation believes they can win and Wales don’t always thrive on high expectations. I think England will pinch it.

England 18 Wales 15

Scotland v France

The dreaded banana skin! France on paper should have far too much power and skill to be threatened by Scotland. However, Murrayfield is the graveyard of broken dreams and many a French Grand Slam has fallen here. For Scotland Stuart Hogg is a brave selection. He looked quality in his brief appearance against Wales and deserves the start. Scotland lack thereequarter pace and look very lacklustre in the centres. The critical thing again will be the amount of quality ball. Richie Gray has been playing very well and the Scottish Back row will welcome back John Barclay alongside the excellent Denton and Rennie. For France, the pack should dominate a weakened Scottish scrum and I think they will run riot with enough ball. The gulf in quality between the backs is as wide as the Atlantic and I don’t see France blowing this one. An unchanged French teams sees Morgan Parra start ahead of Yachvili and that is a positive endorsement of their intent towards a running game. I expect Parra and Trinh-Duc to get those large French centres moving and a hatful of tries.

Scotland 9 France 27