Six Nations Rugby back this weekend and I have to say I am substantially less interested than usual. Maybe its just because its a World Cup year or maybe just that Wales are so inept right now its hard to get motivated to watch your team get hammered every week. To make matters worse, my regular match pal Alun is away in the land of the Bokke - so not going to be a positive experience methinks.
Anyway as usual, let’s start by assessing the teams:
ENGLAND
I've said it before - England are a “confidence” team. A mixed Autumn international performance where no home nation did particularly well, England came out best of a poor bunch. I see positive progress in England and they will dominate this year's Six Nations. The lose of the excellent rampaging Courtney Lawes and Tom Croft will cause some issues but England have enough strength in depth to still bring out a world class pack. Toby Flood will never be more than mediocre and I am unconvinced by Hape, but England have excellent strength in depth in back three - Ashton especially; and a great front row that they will triumph with a Grand Slam. Dan Cole is getting stronger with every game. Hartley shouldn't be there in my view - I personally favour Lee Mears; but he is a typical annoying England hooker who reminds me of Brian Moore. Bit like a wasp around a summer picnic. Lots of ball and solid reliable kickers mean England will keep the scoreboard ticking over in every game. A bold prediction for Grand Slam, but with an easy win over a Welsh team totally ravaged by injury and lacking confidence will see England start with a 20pt + margin. The three "blue" teams at home shouldn't cause any issues. Scotland have an abysmal record at Twickenham, Italy rarely show anything away from Rome and France will come close but capitulate to England penalty kicks. Their indiscipline will be their undoing. The only really difficlut trip to Dublin to face up to an unproven Ireland. England will seek off the irish and set themselves up for a good run at the World Cup with a deserved Grand Slam although it pains me to admit it.
Predicted Finish 1st - GRAND SLAM!
SCOTLAND
I see a new spring in the step of the Scots. Andy Robinson is a great coach and they showed in the past 12 months some good progress. Three wins at home over Wales, Ireland, and Italy will see Scotland rise to a second place finish in the championship - dizzy heights for a team with few outstanding players but a solid camaraderie and work ethic. John Barclay was player of the six nations last season and he is continued to improve - now within the top five world flankers in my view. The selection of Kellock as skipper is an inspired one and Scotland will surprise many with some great football not just the usual dour forward dominated stuff we usually see. Max Evans, the two Lamont brothers and the flyer Ruaridh Jackson are very talented footballers who will cause danger to any teams with the ball in hands. A bit surprise but a very solid platform to build on.
Predicted Finish – 2nd - Tied on 3 wins with France
FRANCE
The French clubs are dominating the Heineken Cup but their international performances have flattered to deceive. A terrible Autumn and a very poor coach mean France have no idea who their best players are. Do they go for the fast hands of Parra or the tactical nous and kicking of Yachvili at Scrum half? Is Skrella really a world class international fly half? I don't think so! They will start positively with a narrow win over Scotland but will be brought back to reality quickly in week 2 in Dublin. France do not have a great record there or at Twickenham, so its hard to see away wins there. They will smash Wales at home and Italy away but I really don't think they know who to pick. Livremont is a walking disaster as coach and despite their depth of talent - a disappointing campaign for them
Predicted Finish 3rd - tied with Scotland and Ireland on 3 wins.
IRELAND
An injury ravaged squad has shown that Ireland don't really have the strength in depth these days. O'Driscoll will go breaking appearance records but the recall of Stringer shows they still have one foot in the past. Sexton has come on hugely and has replaced the mediocre O'Gara as the lynch pin to get those talented backs moving. The loss of Ferris is a big blow early in the campaign and Ireland will have an okay tournament but will lose away at Scotland and to the resurgent England at home. The aging of the Munster forwards was shown up in the Heineken Cup and they are in rebuild mode. Still 3 wins look likely.
Predicted Finish 4th - tied with France and Scotland on 3 wins.
ITALY
"Italy get better every year" - was always one of the great sporting lies - a bit like saying Andy Murray will win one day win a Grand Slam event. I used to say the italians always offer little except a nice afternoon in Rome every two years. Things are changing and they are definitely a much stronger prospect this season. Treviso and Aeroni have definitely improved Italian rugby by being in the Magner's League and Italy look on the verge of a exciting season. Except it won't be this season! They do have some great back row forwards with Parissi and Zanni and Castrogiovanni can give any prop a hard time on his day. Behind the scrum they look pedestrian but they will cause Ireland and France some problems in Rome and Wales will once again be put to the sword. Heavy defeats by England and Scotland away will put them once again and in "a what could have been" frame of mind. Next year perhaps...
Predicted Finish – 5th
WALES
What can you say. Words fail me how inept Wales have been this season. A frankly shockingly bad Autumn followed by horrific injury list and no Welsh clubs making it out of group phase of Heineken Cup. Wales fragile strength in depth has been made worse by some unbelievably bad selections in their Squad. One can understand leaving out Martyn Williams - as he is at the twilight of his career especially as Wales have some great young back row players in McCusker, Lydiate, and Warburton. But with Byrne misfiring and a lack of experience in the squad, leaving out Czekaj and Tom James looks very strange. There are cracks are in almost every part of the squad. With Richie Rees banned, Mike "ego the size of a planet" Philips has no real competition at scrum half. Front row looks very weak. Paul James has improved immensely but he's not Gethin Jenkins in the loose and Wales have two young props in Andrews and Bevington who are not yet ready for the step up to international rugby. Where do you play Ryan Jones? He has been excellent at 2nd row but Bradley Davies and Alun Wyn Jones are the 2nd row of the future. No real talent at No.8. The one dimensional Powell or Jonathan Thomas? Neither is very good. Behind the scrum, Stephen Jones has little competition as Dan Biggar has imploded this season. Jamie Roberts return to partner James Hook provide Wales with an excellent midfield. They will assist Wales in building some great exciting attacks when they have the ball but they will really struggle to win and retain possession. I can't see Wales coming close to winning any games. A stuffing by England and an away loss in Murrayfield will leave Wales out of the championship after only two games. Worse humiliation will follow with total capitulation in Paris and Dublin and a defeat in Rome. Gatland must go for Wales to go any further and kick on to the next level. This abysmal six nations should help him on his way to his P45!
Predicted Finish 6th - LAST - WOODEN SPOON
This weekend’s predictions:
Wales 9 England 34
Italy 14 Ireland 24
France 32 Scotland 19
