It’s welcome back to another season of Six Nations rugby and your correspondent is whetting his lips at the prospect of this year’s tournament which promises to be a cracker!
The dreaded bonus comes into play in an attempt to promote tries and running rugby and that should favour the form team England as they have the highest try scoring record with 45 tries in the past three seasons. By contrast, Scotland have only crossed the goal line 21 times over the same period. I am personally not sure this addition is really required. The Six Nations has had a total of 194 tries over the past three seasons – an average of 64 tries and last season – a record total of 71 tries. This contrasts massively over the period from 2011-13 where there was a paltry total of only 134 tries were scored giving an average of 44 tries a season with a low point of 37 tries in the grind of 2013.
In order to ensure that a Grand Slam is rightly given the status it deserves, the points for winning matches have been changed as follows:
- The team that wins the match shall be awarded four Match Points or (if it scores four tries or more in the process) five Match Points.
- The team that loses the match shall be awarded no Match Points or (if it scores four tries or more in the process or loses by a margin of seven points or fewer) one Match Point or (if it scores four tries or more in the process and loses by a margin of seven points or fewer) two Match Points.
- Teams that draw a match shall each be awarded two Match Points and any of them that scores four tries or more in the process shall be awarded a further one Match Point.
- A Team that wins all five of its Matches (a "Grand Slam") shall be awarded a further three Match Points.
I hope you are all following that logic. Based on the new scoring – what would it have done to the 2016 table? Would it have changed things? Alas no. Of the fifteen matches in 2016 – only 4 games had a team scoring more than four tries. Ireland would have picked up 2 bonus points and Wales and England one point each. The table standings would have been just the same and it would have had no impact whatsoever. So why bother? Answers on a postcard to RBS Six Nations.
However, despite my scepticism - given the new rules, and with a British and Irish Lions Tour next summer – there is every encouragement for teams to focus on attack and score as many tries as possible. Let’s all hope we get the result it was planned to encourage.
As we approach the one-week to go countdown, as usual it is hard to call who will win the championship and it’s going to a very interesting competition. Reigning champions England have it all to lose. Can Ireland relive the fairy tale of their win over the All Blacks in Chicago? Can Wales bounce back after disappointing performances in the Autumn? As usual, I have spent a long time this winter watching and analysing players and coaching performances All be revealed as I analyse and assess this season’s runners and riders:
ENGLAND
Eddie Jones’ team goes from strength to strength. They won an outstanding 2016 Six Nations Grand Slam, dominated Australia in their own backyard with an outstanding summer tour and then carried that form and strength forward into an extremely impressive Autumn.
Jones has quite simply been a revelation in the England set up. He has brought a more disciplined approach and has not been frightened to take risks and blood new players. England are now in sight of the All Blacks consecutive unbeaten games record and England fans must be hoping for the rare treat of a back to back Grand Slam.
This time last year – we were looking at Elliot Daly, Jack Clifford and the outstanding Maro Itoje to make their England debuts. They now look like they own the shirts and that is testament to the new regime installed by Jones and his coaching assistants – most notably Paul Gustard, and forwards guru Steve Borthwick.
Eddie Jones has named three uncapped players in his Six Nations squad, and as expected, has named perennial bad boy Dylan Hartley as captain again in his 34-man squad. Hartley must be favourite to be handed the Lions Captaincy and he will wont to keep his nose clean this tournament.
Hartley is fit to resume the captaincy against France on 4 February after serving his latest suspension for a challenge on Leinster’s Sean O’Brien during Champions Cup duty last year.
Uncapped trio Mike Williams, Bath prop Nathan Catt and Saracens playmaker Alex Lozowski are all included, while Ellis Genge has also been recalled.
Genge broke into the national set-up in the Six Nations last year, making his debut as a replacement against Wales in May and was an ever-present on the fringes of the team for the remainder of 2016 only to be axed from the Elite Player Squad on as the end of 2016 fell. His Strong performances for a spluttering Leicester side against Munster, Saracens and Wasps have catapulted the combative front row back right back into contention for a starting place in the absence of several injured players.
Also, present in the squad, having missed the two-day training camp in Brighton earlier this month, are flanker Jack Clifford, centre Henry Slade and lock Joe Launchbury. Jones will be sweating on the fitness of Clifford and James Haskell for France as both are carrying injuries and look real doubts for the first fixture.
The squad has some interesting twists. England have named four loose head props chasing one position. Mako Vunipola looked to have established himself as England's first choice loose head prop, starting their last eight Tests including all four November internationals, the whitewash in Australia and a Grand Slam decider last year in Paris.
But the Saracens man will be missing for the RBS 6 Nations with a knee injury meaning that a spot has opened up in England's starting line-up.
Joe Marler, who has been Vunipola's main challenger for the starting spot in recent seasons, would have been the obvious pick to step in, but he is only just recovering from a broken leg but such is quality of medical backup for today’s professional sports – he looks a possible contender to make a Lazarus style recovery to face Les Bleus at HQ on February 4th.
Wasps Matt Mullen who has racked up a mere 13 caps over the past seven years will also be competing with Genge for a starting position but looks more likely to be selected as an impact player off the bench.
One of the big questions for Jones will be what he does with his back three especially the choices available to him on the wings. He has favoured Bath’s Anthony Watson and Exeter’s Jack Nowell for much of his time in charge. However, both were injury absentees in the Autumn, with Jonny May, Marland Yarde, Elliot Daly and Semesa Rokoduguni all featuring on the wing.
With Chris Robshaw and Billy Vunipola both missing out with injuries and Clifford and Haskell struggling for fitness, it will be intriguing to see who Jones puts as his back row against France. I think he will start with Launchbury and Kruis as his second row and risk Itoje with Tom Wood and Nathan Hughes as a new look England back row.
The new bonus points do favour England who have the luxury of having the three Blue teams at home. They will be hoping for a try fest opportunity against Italy and France and certainly won’t fear a Scotland team which has an absolutely abysmal record at Twickenham.
It’s hard to not see England dominating the championship again and I feel back to back titles are on the cards. England will easily see off an injury ravaged French select before once again keeping a welsh crowd subdued in Cardiff. It all comes down to the final day in Dublin. I feel Ireland will be a game too far and an England defeat but the bittersweet moment will also mean another trophy!
Final Position: 1st – Champions!
IRELAND
A dreadful World Cup was followed up with a mediocre 2016 Six Nations. So, where on earth did that earth shattering performance come from against New Zealand in Chicago? And it wasn’t just a one off. Ireland also put Australia to the sword and with a stronger referee, they might even have been the All Blacks again on a cold night in Dublin.
The team had a simply sensational Autumn. This has been carried forward with strong showings from Leinster, Munster and Connacht in the European Champions Cup and Irish eyes are again smiling.
Joe Schmidt has named three uncapped players in a very large squad of 40 for the opening two games of this year's RBS 6 Nations against Scotland and Italy. Munster trio Niall Scannell, Rory Scannell and Andrew Conway are all in line to earn their first caps for Ireland.
All three have been rewarded for a string of impressive performances for Munster with Conway in particular shining in his provinces' weekend Champions Cup victory over Racing 92.
Leinster’s talismanic Johnny Sexton has been included in the initial Irish squad despite going off injured while playing for Leinster in the Champions Cup on Friday. The 31-year-old outside half limped out of Leinster's 24-24 Champions Cup draw in Castres on Friday night with calf trouble, but the injury is not thought to be severe enough to keep him out of the Six Nations opener.
Elsewhere, Schmidt has been ruthless and has controversially left out Richardt Strauss and Rhys Ruddock, while Connacht's Quinn Roux and Bordeaux's Ian Madigan are also not included in the 40-man squad.
Joey Carbery and Jared Payne are both out due to injury, but are expected to return to the fold when fit later in the tournament.
Of the omissions, Ian Madigan is perhaps the player Ireland will miss most but he knew the risks to his international future by choosing to take the French Euros on offer in the famous wine country.
I have always been a big Tommy Bowe fan but unfortunately he looks past his best so surely this would have been a perfect opportunity to include the exciting Leinster flyer Adam Byrne? Personally, I also think Craig Gilroy is very fortunate to make the squad as he hasn't done much this year in my eyes either to justify his inclusion.
Ireland have the talent and a lot will depend on the fitness of key players. Sexton is always an injury worry and Ireland haven't yet found an adequate replacement. I wouldn't be surprised if Joe Schmidt goes with Rory Scannell on the bench to cover 10 and 12 like he did with Madigan for so long and pick one other who could cover wing and full back. However, given Sextons recent completion rates of games maybe Ulster’s Paddy Jackson is the safer option as he will inevitably be called upon.
CJ Stander was the outstanding ball carrier in the pool stages of the Champions Cup and Connacht’s Tiernan O’Halloran has also caught my eye with very solid performances and who will hope to add to his three Ireland caps.
The fixture list has once again not been kind to them. Ireland starts with two tricky away games. They open with a tough game against a greatly improved Scotland at Murrayfield followed by a potential banana skin trip to Rome to face an Italian team who will fancy their chances of unsettling Wales in the opening salvo. A home game against France should give them a victory before more toil with Wales away on a Friday night game before the final home fixture and possible championship decider against England.
That final match and its potential as a championship decider is a mouth-watering prospect coming on the Saturday after St. Paddy’s day. Ireland need to win in Scotland and then momentum will carry them through Italy and France. The Wales game is probably the riskiest. Ireland have a good record in Cardiff but if Wales can gain some momentum as they usually improve through the tournament and all hopes of a Grand Slam will be over. I see four wins and a party pouping finish over England but no title.
Final Position: 2nd
WALES
OMG – where do you start? Will Carling wrote a very good piece this past week on why England fans looking for more of the same are missing the point. Carling’s erudite piece made an impassioned point that teams need to keep on developing and improving and more of the same is a recipe for stagnation and decline.
It’s clear those views are not shared by the WRU. They missed a massive opportunity to refresh their coaching line up and frankly blew it with a head in the sand “steady as you go” attitude by continuing faith in Warren Gatland and his coaching team.
However much spin the WRU and coaches put on their Autumn performances highlighting three wins out of four – the Welsh public have been desperately underwhelmed and have voted with their feet with increasing numbers of empty seats and unsold tickets at the Principality Stadium.
With Warren Gatland again on Lions duty, Robert Howley is again acting Head honcho and he has brought in the exciting Alex King as his attack coach. Wales have been promising a new expansive game but it wasn't evident in the Autumn games where Wales were simply awful against Australia and even worse against a plucky Japan side who deserved a victory. Wins over a rebuilding Argentina and the worst ever Springboks side really were no yardstick to measure how good or bad Wales really are.
The continued belief in aimless kicking and one dimensional attack have severely weakened Wales and I do fear this could be either a good rebuilding tournament at best or a catastrophic wooden spoon at worst.
Rob Howley has at least shown some invention and intent with seven uncapped players making the initial squad line-up. Wales have been particularly guilty of not bringing through new players into their set up, so the squad at least shows some fresh ideas and faces. Let’s hope they actually stay in the squad and I call on Howley to make some bold selections in the 2017 competition.
The uncapped players in the Welsh squad including English based players - Wasps flanker Thomas Young and Leicester back Owen Williams. It is an alarming fact that almost 100 Welsh eligible players are not plying their trade in England and the dreaded “Gatland’s Law” mean Wales will damage their team line up with the enforcement of the regulations.
The other uncapped players chosen by Howley are Ospreys flanker Olly Cracknell, Newport Gwent Dragons wing Ashton Hewitt, Scarlets wing Steff Evans, Ospreys lock Rory Thornton and Scarlets scrum-half Aled Davies.
One of the biggest talking points is the choice of captain. Alun Wyn Jones takes over the mantle form Sam Warburton who has been badly struggling for form and consistency with noted (and hated) commentator Stuart Barnes stating clearly that Warburton is not playing well enough to merit selection let alone captaincy. Howley will be hoping for a Robshaw-esque recovery in form for Warburton and with old warhorse Gethin Jenkins missing the entire competition as he undergoes surgery, Wyn Jones was the obvious choice – an outstanding leader in his own right and deservedly new Welsh skipper on merit. He led The British & Irish Lions to victory in the final Test against Australia in 2013, he has had the armband for Wales on five previous occasions and he is Ospreys' club skipper.
Warburton though, will be a tough act to follow. He has captained his country more than any other player in Welsh history and led Wales to a World Cup semi-final, and two consecutive RBS 6 Nations crowns. Jones, perhaps inspired by the opportunity of captaincy for the British & Irish Lions Tour to New Zealand this summer, has just got better and better this year, and at 31 - with 111 Test caps to his name he remains an outstanding player and leader.
Dan Lydiate joins Gethin Jenkins in missing the whole tournament whilst Blues half backs Lloyd Williams and Gareth Anscombe have been discarded.
Kristian Dacey has been the outstanding hooker in Wales but is unlikely to oust the “King of Carmarthen” Ken Owens from the starting line-up and will face Scott Baldwin for the bench slot. I think Howley will play safe and pick Dan Biggar and Gareth Davies as his starting half backs – I would have liked to see Sam Davies and Aled Davies get the nod if Wales are truly looking at a new expansive game.
In the pack – Rob Evans should see off Nicky Smith at Loose head to join Samson Lee as props in a string looking front row. Wyn Jones will likely line up with the aggressive Jake ball and again I would like to see Howley take some risk and drop Warburton picking Tom Young alongside Ross Moriarty and Justin Tipuric in a new look back row with the outstanding Taulupe Faletau still struggling with injury and fitness.
Wales start their campaign with the noted banana skin in Rome. Lose their and it could be wooden spoon. Wales return at home against England, away in Edinburgh, back for Ireland and then the dead rubber in Paris. I think Wales will surprise and will run England close and beat Ireland but lose in Paris.
Three wins and 3rd place.
Final Position: 3rd
FRANCE
After a dreadful 2016 when France flattered to deceive and ended up with more defeats than victories, there were some bright shoots of hope of a more positive future for Les Bleus.
There were promising signs of recovery in their summer tour when deprived of his Top 14 semi-finalists and with a few injuries, Noves took something of an experimental side to Argentina. On that tour, he gave a number of debuts, but perhaps none have made a bigger impact than Kevin Gourdon, who has started each of France's last five Tests. The positive summer was followed with narrow Autumn defeats to both Australia and New Zealand.
French rugby in the Pro 14 continues to be of a high and improving standard and announcements to stop picking new players on residential status will give hops of a new renaissance in French running rugby.
But before I get too carried away, France are still France. Annoyingly inconsistent and for this championship Guy Noves has a massively injury ravaged squad. Noves has named four uncapped players in his 32-man squad as France look to end a 7 years’ trophy-less spell in the Six Nations.
La Rochelle prop Mohamed Boughanmi, Clermont Auvergne lock Arthur Iturria, Brive back-rower Fabien Sanconnie and Castres full-back Geoffrey Palis are the men who could make their international debuts after being selected by Noves. Palis who was included in the summer squad could make his Test debut having come very close last summer. His ability to play both at full-back or on the wing, could make him a valuable bench option at some point in the Championship
There are also recalls for Raphael Lakafia, Mathieu Bastareaud
and Toulouse centre Yann David. Yann David has been in fine form for Toulouse and with Wesley Fofana out of the whole tournament he could be forming a formidable partnership with Bastareaud. David’s last appearance in the Blue shirt coming against New Zealand all the way back in the distant memory of 2009.
I am not and have never been a fan of Bastareaud but with Henry Chavancy also out with injury, Noves has had to resort to recalling the Toulon centre as he seeks to unsettle England in the opening exchange at Twickenham. Mathieu Bastareaud has scored a mere 3 tries (yes really) in the course of 40 appearances (from the start, or the 'bench') in the French jersey. A centre, remember - but who plays like a ninth forward!
Eddie Ben Arous is another big loss for France at prop and Noves continues to flout the norm with the selection of mainly No.8 forwards in his back row. In the second test against Argentina, Noves selected a back row of Kevin Gourdon, Loann Goujon and Louis Picamoles - a trio of No.8s with the former duo packing down on the flanks
The tendency to mix and match half-back pairings has been a common theme for French coaches in recent times with very mixed success. Noves has continued this trait although he has stabilised the French squad with a much more consistent line up than previous regimes with their mad tendency to chop and change. An injury to the consistent François Trinh-Duc has disrupted his plans, and the Toulon ten is still on the comeback trail.
As a result Noves has gone with the four half-backs who played the last two Tests in November, scrum-halves Maxime Machenaud and Baptiste Serin, and fly-halves Camille Lopez and Jean-Marc Doussain. Serin in particular was very impressive off the bench against the All Blacks and will push Machenaud hard for the starting shirt.
France remain dangerous and a team to write off at your peril. Scott Spedding has always impressed me at full back and the south islanders Vakatawa and Nakaitaci are deadly finishers.
France face England at Twickenham and it’s very hard to see them come away with anything from that match. They follow with a home game against Scotland and nothing less than a win will do before a tough trip to Dublin. France finish with another away trip to Rome before the final finale against Wales at Stade de France. Three wins and 4th place. A lack of bonus points will put them behind Wales.
Final Position: 4th
SCOTLAND
No longer the whipping boys, Scotland are looking much improved after a disappointing Six Nations followed the highs of the World Cup. Coach Vern Cotter will hand over the coaching reins to Gregor Townsend at the end of the campaign and will be hopeful of unsettling the big boys and sneaking a few wins in between. After a fourth-placed finish last year - that included victories over both Italy and France - Cotter's final Championship at the helm could be his best yet and a fitting finale. Scotland have not cracked the top three in the table since 2013 and they haven't won three games in a Championship since 2006.
Despite that dismal recent history, the squad has a settled look to it this year and they have three home games in 2017 against Ireland, Wales and Italy which are all winnable fixtures.
Vern Cotter named two uncapped players in his final Six Nations with the inclusion of Edinburgh forwards Cornell du Preez and Simon Berghan. Controversially when many nations are calling for stronger rules to prevent international tourists turning up in national jerseys, Cotter has little choice to continue to select residential players and the loose grandparent rules to bolster his squad.
Flanker Du Preez, who played for the South African under-20s team, became eligible to represent Scotland last year after completing three years of residency and has scored 14 tries in 71 appearances for Edinburgh. He was included in the squad as an injury replacement during the Autumn internationals but did not feature in a match. His club mate Simon Berghan, is another foreign import who was born in New Zealand and spent most of his career there. He qualifies through his Scottish grandfather.
Scotland's Six Nations hopes have been dealt a significant blow after it was confirmed that another of their “foreign legion”, influential prop WP Nel will miss the entire competition. Nel had been one of the outstanding players to come through last season and even though Vern Cotter named the South Africa-born tighthead in his 37-man squad for the Championship, he has been forced to withdraw after aggravating a neck injury while on duty for club side Edinburgh last week.
His chances of joining Warren Gatland's touring party for the summer trip to New Zealand may also be thrown into doubt after Scottish Rugby announced the 30-year-old will meet with a specialist to decide whether surgery is required. Scotland are already reeling from losing David Denton, Peter Horne, Rory Hughes, Alasdair Dickinson and Rory Sutherland to injury.
Elsewhere, I am pleased to see the popular Gloucester centre Matt Scott has earned a recall to Scotland's squad for the upcoming Six Nations. Scott was omitted from Scotland's November Test plans but has worked his way back into Vern Cotter's pool after scoring 12 tries in 18 games this season for the Cherry and Whites.
Stuart Hogg is the one truly world class back in the Scotland team but there is a solid look to the Bravehearts with Tommy Seymour, Tim Visser, Duncan Taylor and Sean Maitland alongside Scott in a strong line up. Duncan Weir will fight Finn Russell at 10 and Greig Laidlaw has once again shown very good form coming into the tournament.
Scotland lack the same firepower in the forwards but the Gray brothers are also in strong form and Scotland will be tough to beat especially at Murrayfield.
The fixtures have been kind and Scotland start against Ireland at home. That will certainly be a hard game to call and is winnable. They follow that with a trip to Paris before welcoming Wales with an inevitable defeat away in England and a final “eight pointer” against Italy. I think Scotland will frighten both Ireland and Wales but facing the dragon after possible defeats will be a big ask. I don’t see Scotland winning in Paris or London – so one win and another case of what might have been...
Final Position: 5th
ITALY
Former Harlequins boss and Ireland legend Conor O'Shea has taken over the Azzurri and assembled a strong looking coaching line up as Italy seek to have a stronger six nations. The selection of Brendan Venter as his assistant is a master stroke and anyone who has come against a team prepared by O’Shea knows his teams have a never say die attitude ingrained in them.
O’Shea is in charge for his first Six Nations as a coach and has selected a 32-man squad based on experience over experimentation.
The evergreen Sergio Parisse will skipper the squad in what will be the No.8's 14th Championship for the Azzurri. Every season we think it’s his last and then he dusts himself off and leads form the front at every opportunity. A true legend and rugby hall of famer!
The two additions from the autumn squad are Zebre pair - prop Dario Chistolini and lock Federico Ruzza - the latter the only uncapped player in the entire squad.
In the Autumn, there was much to cheer as O'Shea's new look side claimed an historic victory over South Africa but then followed it with a disappointing loss to Tonga in their final autumn clash.
O’Shea will be looking for wins over France, Wales and Scotland in the tournament and Italy are massively boosted by the return to form of several of their key players at the same time. Carlo Canna and Tomasso Allen have both been in sparkling form and give him his first difficult selection challenge. personally, I would start with Canna at 10 and give the versatile Allen an outing at 12. His passing and kicking vision mean he is too good not to be starting and gives O’Shea options to change the strategy of a game.
The outstanding Giorgio Bronzini gives O’Shea another selection enigma. Does he stick with the young scrum half who was so impressive in the Autumn or revert to the stable and experienced 53 cap Edoardo Gori who has failed to dislodge Bronzini from the starting line up at Treviso.
Italy will be solid in the pack and if they can get the ball out to Michele Campgnaro then any team is in danger. With four tries in 25 Tests, Campgnaro is an experienced international, but the talented centre has had an injury-disrupted couple of seasons since moving to Exeter Chiefs.
He is however another in outstanding form and he turned in a storming two-try performance as Exeter beat Ulster 31-19 at Sandy Park last Sunday. His first score was a perfect example of what the centre brings to Italy - pace, power and an eye for the try line. Tries have certainly been lacking for Italy in the Six Nations with the Azzurri only scoring an average of 8 tries in the past three seasons.
Italy open against Wales in Rome and the Welsh will not be looking forward to that encounter. Expect a very tough game and a narrow defeat. From there, I can only see Italy having another chance of a win against France. That game as I said earlier; is a must win for France and Noves cannot survive another Italian defeat in Rome. I don’t see Italy winning away this season so no wins and another wooden spoon. A disappointing competition for O’Shea but something to build on for the future. If only Parisse was ten years younger…
Final Position: 6th
