Six Nations 2017 – Round 1 – Opening Salvos...

Six Nations 2017 – Round 1 – Opening Salvos…

After last week’s preview, it’s now down to the game time action and where the rubber hits the road. All squads will have had their last training sessions where moves and game plans are perfected and final line ups announced. the tournament gets real this weekend.  We have three great opening matches to look forward to with some tough encounters for all the teams.

SCOTLAND v IRELAND

First up at the unusual kick off time of 2:25pm is home team Scotland against Ireland. Scotland were impressive in the Autumn – especially against Australia whilst Ireland set the whole world alight with their shock victory over the All Blacks. Both teams will be anxious to avoid a first week defeat and this game could set the tempo for the 2017 championship. Victory is by no means assured for either team. A tough battle at Murrayfield with predicted rain, mild 7C temperatures and the traditional wind effect at the stadium – it’s hard to predict what style of rugby will prevail. 

Scotland coach Vern Cotter has publically stated he is looking for a minimum two victories as he bows out as coach handing over to Gregor Townsend at the end of this campaign. 

Scotland have shown some real progress over the past 15 months.  After a winless Six Nations wooden spoon campaign in 2015, they had a heroic World Cup and followed it with consecutive wins over Italy and France to finish fourth in last year’s championship and backed that up in the autumn with wins over Argentina and Georgia as well as a narrow loss to Australia.

Coach Cotter starting XV for the visit of Ireland shows a mere three changes from the side that finished the autumn. The first of those changes comes in midfield where Huw Jones comes back into the side to replace Mark Bennett at Centre whilst Glasgow pair Josh Strauss, and Fraser Brown return to the starting line-up. 

Stormers star Jones scored a thrilling brace of tries against Australia in the first game of the autumn before getting injured in the act of creating a try for Sean Maitland against the Pumas a week later. I am disappointed to not see Matt Scott at least make the bench. 

Strauss plays at number eight as Ryan Wilson moves to blind-side flanker, whilst Frazer Brown's inclusion means a place on the bench for Edinburgh's 102 cap Hooker Ross Ford. Brown will form an inexperienced front row with props Allan Dell and Zander Fagerson, who have only seven caps between them.
Hamish Watson holds down the open side flanker role in the back row he occupied so effectively throughout the autumn Tests, and brothers Jonny and Richie Gray are paired once again in the Scotland second row.

Cotter has opted for experience at halfbacks as Greig Laidlaw and Finn Russell partner again, and full-back Stuart Hogg and wingers Sean Maitland and Tommy Seymour form a very dangerous back three who between them scored half of Scotland's tries in the autumn.

On the bench, there is a potential new cap – Edinburgh’s Simon Berghan, the Kiwi-born tight head who has impressed with Edinburgh this season and with Ross Ford and Gordon Reid will bolster the front row from the bench in the second half. Duncan Weir, John Barclay – who has been in superb form for the Scarlets; and Mark Bennett offer a solid foundation and opportunity to change the game plan and direction.

For Ireland, Joe Schmidt’s selection choices have been extensively weakened by the enormous loss of the talismanic Johnny Sexton with a calf injury and Sexton is ranked as only an outside chance to make the week 2 fixture against Italy. 
Schmidt didn’t make any unexpected changes in his line up for Murrayfield with Ulster second row Iain Henderson recalled to the side while the return of hard working Leinster flanker Sean O’Brien is a welcome boost as he has been passed fit for action.

Henderson got the nod ahead of Donnacha Ryan, who started both games against New Zealand in November but fails to make the squad of 23.
Sean O’Brien, hasn’t played any rugby since early January as he has been recovering from a calf injury, looks to have done enough in training to convince Schmidt of his worth in the side for the Murrayfield clash.

The 29-year-old flanker takes his place in the back row alongside the outstanding CJ Stander and the reliable Jamie Heaslip. Josh van der Flier will provide cover from the bench.

Peter O'Mahony was ruled out on Tuesday and like Sexton, he is looking "highly unlikely" to be fit for the Italy game on Saturday week with a "grade 1 or 2" hamstring strain. 

Andrew Trimble fails to make the bench. The Ulster winger’s training was curtailed this week as he dealt with a groin problem and Simon Zebo and Keith Earls take their places on the wings with Rob Kearney, as expected, named at full-back.

With Johnny Sexton out, Ulsterman Paddy Jackson grasps the opportunity and will win his 20th cap at outside half, partnered as usual by Conor Murray at scrum half with Robbie Henshaw and Garry Ringrose lining up in the centre.
The front row is also named as expected, captain Rory Best has Leinster props Jack McGrath and Tadhg Furlong alongside.

On the Bench, the backs are covered by Tommy Bowe while Kieran Marmion and Ian Keatley will cover the half-back spots. Niall Scannell, Cian Healy, John Ryan, Ultan Dillane and Josh van der Flier are the forwards replacements.
In Sexton’s absence, the game changes dynamic considerably. Finn Russell has been in outstanding form for Glasgow and this is his chance to make his mark on proceedings and steal a march on his rival in the Lions pecking order.

His partnership with skipper Greig Laidlaw is only getting better and if they can get on top of Conor Murray - who will have a huge responsibility on Saturday - then they will go a long way to securing a rare Scottish victory at Murrayfield. 

The pack is where the game will be won or lost. I fear for the new look Scottish front row where Jack McGrath and Rory Best will look to capitalise and dominate at the scrum, line out and turnover. I expect a very tight game and a narrow win for Ireland but only just.

Scotland 14 Ireland 17


ENGLAND V FRANCE

First up for England is a difficult opening encounter against France. England will be the hot favourites especially so given Les Bleus poor record at Twickenham. You have to go back 12 years to last see a French victory at HQ in the Six Nations when England’s poor discipline and the metronomic accuracy of Dmitri Yachvili’s boot saw France home by a solitary point.

Since then – it’s been 5 straight defeats with an average winning margin for the Rose of 15 points.

Coach Eddie Jones will brush off the comparisons this week with US President Donald Trump and will have his team prepared and ready for whatever Gallic fervour they will come up against.  There are eight changes from the starting line-up that sealed England's first clean sweep of the Six Nations in 13 years when the teams met in Paris last March.

With Bath flyer Anthony Watson unavailable with a hamstring injury, Elliot Daly has been named on the left wing in place of Exeter’s Jack Nowell. The Wasps man plays outside centre for his club, possesses an awesome left boot and is given another opportunity on the wing this weekend. Daly will want to forget and recover from his last outing in the White shirt at winger during England’s match against Argentina when he was sent off in the first half for taking a man out in the air. Such is his all-round footballing ability that Jones has seen fit to give him another crack.

Jack Nowell was expected to fill the position but missed Tuesday's training sessions due to personal reasons. He returned home and was only back in camp on Thursday, resulting in his selection on the bench for the visit of Guy Noves' men to Twickenham.

England have significant injuries with the Vunipola brothers Billy and Mako Vunipola both out with knee injuries and Chris Robshaw (shoulder) all unlikely to play any part in England's title defence. Anthony Watson (hamstring) and second row Kruis (knee) have been sidelined for the tournament opener.
Maro Itoje will make his first start at blindside flanker, replacing shoulder-injury victim Chris Robshaw, while Joe Marler completes a remarkable recovery from a recent fractured leg to take his place at loose head prop.

Joe Launchbury is reinstated to the second row replacing the unfortunate Kruis. Such is England’s depth of talent that Kruis will scarcely be missed with the option of several world class locks at their disposal. Fijian born Nathan Hughes will form a powerful back row combination with Itoje and Tom Wood whilst James Haskell will no doubt feature from the bench.

Mike Brown is Mr. Reliable at Full back and the England back division from half backs Youngs and Ford through centres Farrell and Joseph to wings May and Daly ooze class and unpredictability.

Guy Noves enters his second year as France coach and has named a team infused with youth for his RBS 6 Nations opener. He makes six changes from the side which narrowly lost to New Zealand in November. 

There will be Six Nations debuts for Baptiste Serin at scrum half, Kevin Gourdon at flanker and Cyril Baille at prop, while Clemont Second row Arthur Iturria could win his first Test cap off the bench.

French scrum-halves have long had the responsibility of being leaders and playmakers, and it's the turn of 22-year-old Baptiste Serin to step into the limelight at Twickenham. A surprising choice given Maxime Machenaud had worn the number 9 jersey with aplomb in the Autumn, Serin made his debut for France on their summer tour to Argentina, before coming off the bench in each of the three November Tests.

He will link up with Camille Lopez, the Clermont fly-half, who started the game against New Zealand and has re-established himself in the side since missing out on last year's Championship.

As I pointed out in last week’s preview, deprived of players in the Top 14 semi-finals on last summer's tour to Argentina, Noves stumbled upon a new combination of his back row, playing No.8s Louis Picamoles, Kevin Gourdon and Loann Goujon. That continued in November, even after an injury to Goujon, with Charles Ollivon taking his place.

For the RBS 6 Nations it will be Damien Chouly, both a No.8 or a blindside flanker, who will start for the injured Ollivon. Kevin Gourdon will make his Six Nations debut and he has been one of the stand-out players for Top 14 leaders La Rochelle this season.

His impressive display against New Zealand caught my eye - with nine carries,   more than 50 metres made, two clean breaks and four defenders beaten - and he could be one to watch this season.

Louis Picamoles, meanwhile, will look to impress on his return to France, having swapped the Top 14 for the Premiership this season with a move to Northampton Saints.

France were dealt a major blow in the lead-up to the Championship when the talented Wesley Fofana suffered a torn Achilles tendon which will keep him out for the rest of the season. In his place will be a player England know well - 22-year-old Gael Fickou. The Toulouse centre scored the try that broke English hearts back in 2014 and is the one player will could adequately the gap left by Fofana.

Fickou will once again link up with Remi Lamerat in midfield, while Noves has plumped for Noa Nakaitaci as centre cover - a position he has played a number of times for club side Clermont.

On the bench, the uncapped Arthur Iturra is joined by another RBS 6 Nations newcomer in Clement Maynadier, acting as hooking cover in the absence of the injured Camille Chat. There is also plenty of experience for Noves to call on, with the likes of Rabah Slimani, Maxime Machenaud and Yoann Huget all waiting in the wings.

France had a massively disappointing championship in 2016 finishing a lowly fifth in the final standings. Noves will be determined to get off to a good start in this year's Championship and whilst a win may at Twickenham may be beyond them, he will be looking for Les Bleus to compete at all aspects of the game.

Even though the fixture is a tricky one to start the competition on, it’s hard to see France changing that record and one can only see another England victory.
France always are heavy infringers in the forwards and England’s kickers will keep the scoreboard ticking over.  England by two scores

England 30 France 17


ITALY v WALES

And so, last but not least, the final of this trio of tasty encounters -  Sunday afternoon in Rome will see Wales travel to face their nemesis Italy in a predicted warm but damp encounter at the Stadio Olympico. Wales will be very keen to avoid a banana skin start to the championship and their notorious slow burn approach to the competition in recent seasons and their poor Autumn form leaves them open and vulnerable again to another Italian nightmare.

Let’s start with Italy. It’s been 10 years since Italy last beat Wales in Rome and Azzuri boss Conor O’Shea has played it safe in the hope of another upset. He has kept faith with his team which showed improved Autumn form with a side including 10 of the starting line-up that accounted for South Africa in November for Sunday’s 6 Nations clash against Wales.

Edoardo Gori's is recall at scrum-half instead of Giorgio Bronzini represents a solitary change from the back division that started the Springboks clash in Florence. Carlo Canna continues at outside half with the talented Tomasso Allen providing an option off the bench.

Surprisingly – given his great recent form; that means no place for in-form Exeter centre Michele Campagnaro, who is named on the bench with Luke McLean and Tommaso Benvenuti continuing their midfield partnership.

The evergreen Skipper Sergio Parisse, meanwhile, will win his 122nd cap, packing down in a back-row that also includes Six Nations debutant Maxime Mbanda. Mbanda is one of five total changes along with Gori from the team which won that historic victory. The other players recalled are Abraham Steyn, lock George Biagi and prop Andrea Lovotti

The team is very experienced and O’Shea has resisted the temptation to blood any new caps in what is sure to be a bruising encounter. The bulk of the side coming from Pro 12 club sides - Treviso and Zebre; with only Parisse and tighthead prop Lorenzo Cittadini playing outside Italy. 

So on to Wales and unfortunately what looked like a promising squad with Seven uncapped players has not materialised into the final starting XV. A massive disappointment and once again shows the lack of vision and ambition from the Welsh team management. Wales have not learned that you need to blood new players and bring them on in the caldron of a competitive match. The Welsh approach which has failed dismally is to pick a second-string team for their weakest Autumn international and then when they play badly stay conservative and resist change. In the meantime, England and Ireland have progressed and built up experience in their fringe players by introducing them alongside the senior players so they can taste the big time in a winning and higher standard side. When will they ever learn? Clearly not in this year’s championship.

Robert Howley has resisted the temptation to make wholesale changes and has gone extremely conservatively with the bulk of the team which was victorious against the stuttering Springboks in their last encounter in Cardiff.

Rather like O’Shea, he has retained 10 of that winning side with only five changes as Wales target a strong start ahead of next week's Principality Stadium appointment with Six Nations title holders England.

Rhys Webb is recalled at scrum half after missing most of Wales' autumn Test series this season through injury, with Scarlets pair Scott Williams and Jonathan Davies teaming up in midfield and 86 times-capped Jamie Roberts named on the bench.  Sam Warburton is named at blind side flanker and will form a strong back row with Justin Tipuric and Gloucester’s Ross Moriarty. 

Warburton has shown simply no form in club rugby and after an anonymous Autumn, he really should not be anywhere near this match day squad. The omission of the dangerous, in-form Thomas Young shows a lamentable lack of judgment and I fear it will backfire badly on Wales. Young does not even make the bench.

In the pack, Nicky Smith takes the Loose head position in the absence of the injured Gethin Jenkins keeping out Scarlet’s Rob Evans and will pack down with Ken Owens and Samson Lee in the front row. Again – no place for the in-form Cardiff Blues hooker Kristian Dacey with Scott Baldwin named on the bench.

The back three features Leigh Halfpenny at full back with Liam Williams and George North on the wings. Again – a massive opportunity missed as North has been struggling for form and Howley opts not to cap either Steff Evans or Ashton Hewitt on the wing.

Luke Charteris and Taulupe Falatau are both ruled out with injury and join long term absentees Jenkins, Bradley Davies, and Dan Lydiate.

Wales should be confident given the strength of their starting line-up and the fact that most of the Italian team is drawn from the Pro 12 whipping boys teams of Zebre and Treviso. Carlo Canna is an accomplished kicker and Wales will want to avoid giving away kickable penalties. They cannot afford a slow start and will want to build morale. Nothing less than a convincing victory will satisfy the Welsh supporters and I fully expect this team to deliver albeit a missed opportunity. Wales comfortable winners by 12 points.

Italy 14 Wales 26