Final Weekend – All to play for!

Final Weekend – All to play for!

What a great tournament the 2012 RBS Six Nations has been! One of the classics with many close and tense encounters and a very high standard of rugby being played. It is sad in some ways then that it has to end but we have a final weekend to savour with three outstanding fixtures to look forward to. I have been running at 66% prediction rate this tournament. Not great but better than many of the newspaper columnists so lets assess how the runners and riders line up for the final furlong:

ITALY v SCOTLAND

Wooden Spoon game as predicted with Scotland with their backs against the wall with a tense finale in the Stadio Olympico. The scots showed good form for 60 minutes of last weekend’s encounter in Dublin but fell away badly in the final quarter. Richie Gray has been the stand out 2^nd row all season and Scotland will need to rely on him winning lots of line out ball and then get their mobile back row tearing forward. De Luca will add steel at Centre with Max Evans returning to the wing. It will all be settled up front and Scotland will struggle in scrums and they have to starve Italy of any ball to have a chance. Italy by contrast have been very good at frustrating teams – Wales being the latest to find Italy hard to break down. They have a world-class back row and that is where they will want to front up and take the game to Scotland. Burton is retained at Outside half and his form and standard has been woeful all tournament. Italy have to drive it through eth pack and grind Scotland down. Andy Robinson will be nervously pacing up and down and will have no fingernails left at the end. Scotland to hang on in a tight game.

Italy 16 Scotland 18

WALES V FRANCE

The big one and championship decider. Wales need to lose by 20 pts and England win by 20 pts to deny them the title. That looks unlikely but will Wales have the mental strength to handle winning what would be there third Grand Slam in 8 seasons? The answer is an emphatic YES! France have nothing bur pride to play for having had two successive poor home performances. They got off to slow starts against both Ireland and England and paid the penalty – so a fast start is essential here. More chopping and changing see 5 changes with Yachvili getting the nod at scrum half and Beauxis at outside half. Some odd changes see Fofana on the wing and Florian Fritz recalled at Centre. Strange as France don’t seem to have the defensive strength to make changes like this at this stage. The French three quarters have been all at sea and a bit Marie Celeste in the defensive line and tackling department. They will struggle with power and flair of the Welsh backs. Up front, it’s a different story and the recall of Servat and the giant Attoub will be looking to disrupt the Welsh Lion’s front row. A tight battle in back row will mean the winning team will be the one with the majority of possession. For Wales, the return of Captain Warburton is a major boost. The Welsh back row is truly world class with only Australia and New Zealand close to having the abilities in defence and attack shown by Lydiate, Faletau and Warburton. Tipuric is unlucky to not even make the bench but Ryan Jones – for many the unsung hero of this welsh side offers more options and will undoubtedly see some action in the second half. The Welsh are still bruised by their World Cup loss to France and will have a point to prove. I think Wales will dominate the play but will once again struggle to convert it to points. Goal kicking will be critical for both teams. A lot of pundits have said Wales have got worse as the tournament has progressed. I don’t agree. Wales have learned to win ugly and that is how great teams are built. Gatland will be playing down all the hype and Wales will have the home crowd to see them home. Expect Welsh backs to be flying but a tighter score line than many think. Welsh Grand Slam!

Wales 18 France 16

ENGLAND V IRELAND

The luck of the Irish! Or in this competition the un-luck of the Irish! Ireland were desperately close against Wales and should have shut France out in Paris. They dominated the weaker teams Scotland and Italy and have the psychological advantage of winning 7 of the last 8 six nations encounters against England. The excellent Donnacha Ryan has meant that they haven’t missed O’Connell. The Irish line out has shown largely metronomic precision and they will want to win as much ball as possible. O’Brien returns to the back row in the only change from the win over Scotland. Sexton has had a quiet Six Nations and is due a big game. It will be very interesting to watch and compare Sexton and Farrell. Both look likely Lions selections and who has the better game on Saturday could decide the match. The Irish centres have badly missed Brian O’Driscoll and England will be looking to unleash Tuigali and get their backs moving to prize open a small advantage. Robshaw and Croft were both excellent against France and England will be looking to ram home an advantage at the break downs, as both packs look evenly matched. Very even in front row, Ireland having the better boiler room and England having the better back row. Dickson needs a good game and get quick ball to Farrell. Foden will be again solid in the back three and England will give this a real good go. A win and Lancaster will be a shoe in for full time coach. I think the game will be very tight and who will be the hungrier team – more eager to win? I think Ireland are marginally the better side and will scrape home to break English hearts once again at HQ.

England 19 Ireland 22

Time for the real Men to stand up!

Round 4 of the 2012 RBS Six Nations sees two tight games and a real test of strength and belief in the third game. Who will be the winners and losers in this weekend’s matches?

WALES v ITALY

Wales will go into this match with the weight of the nation’s expectations upon them. It is clear the Welsh public believe that another Grand Slam is on the cards and Wales will have a nervy time against Italy in Cardiff. I have to admit some surprises in the Welsh selections. Matthew Rees becomes the third Welsh hooker to start this championship. This is a clearly a weak area for Wales and the poor line out stats clearly show this. Wales have now used 5 hookers in the past 12 months. I am glad to see Rees return but his lack of match fitness will be a real test. The Welsh front row has been outstanding this season and Gethin Jenkins becomes the third player to captain Wales this tournament. He and Adam Jones have been dominating front rows and I see Wales having a stiff test but should again been too strong up front for Italy. With Same Warburton carrying an injury, Justin Tipuric gets another chance at 7. He played very well in Dublin and is a solid replacement that will maintain Wales back row dominance they have shown against all sides this season. Jamie Roberts is a real surprise selection. Injured against England, I would have thought Wales need him fit and well to play France and Scott Williams will be bitterly disappointed not to start especially after his try against England. Italy looks a team in disarray and when your captain already writes you off in the press, and then it is difficult to see much of a threat. Italy were quite simply awful; against Ireland and Wales will have no difficulty against the Azzuri. Lo Cicero will cause some problems in the front row and will earn his 94^th cap. Burton has been hesitant and weak at kicking all season and if he does the same aimless kicking game against Wales then North and Cuthbert could run riot through the pedestrian Italian backs. Wales by a cantor.

Wales 30 Italy 9

IRELAND v SCOTLAND

Last chance saloon for the Scots and their ailing coach Andy Robinson. Scotland have been bitterly disappointing and it is difficult to see them triumphing in Dublin. Having said that, the same was true two years ago when the Scots pulled off a shock win in Dublin. This season, Scotland really have been disappointing in attack despite some stand out performances by individuals in the pack. Denton and Gray have been very strong all season and have been the stand out players for Scotland. In the absence of O’Connell, Ireland’s line out may falter and that could give Scotland reasonable ball. De Luca was the best Scottish player against France and the exciting Hogg also gets another outing at Full back. For Ireland, Rory best – a true Ulsterman through and through – will wear the Captains band in Dublin. A well deserved honour for the most consistent home nations hooker. Losing Conor Murray is a big blow to quick Irish ball and their backs haven’t exactly set the world alight apart for the defensive running of Kearney and Bowe’s lively pace on the wing. Earls has looked slow and cumbersome, Darcy looks past his sell by date for me. Ireland will be confident after running France so close but really they should have won in Paris. Expect the Irish to be too tricky for the Scots and I expect a narrow but decisive Irish win.

Ireland 23 Scotland 19

FRANCE v ENGLAND

England will take real heart form their performance against Wales. They have a fantastic record in Paris and I think England will once again triumph over a misfiring French side. England have struggled to get a real attaching platform all tournament but the return of the beast – Tuigali – against Wales showed everyone they have a good chance to break open defenses. Farrell looks assured and confident at 10, Barritt strong in defense at centre and Strettle quick and elusive once he gets the ball. I am surprised that Ashton gets another game as he has looked clearly out of form and confidence. In the pack, England were taught a lesson in back row play by Wales but the English second row is starting to come to form. Botha was good against Wales – his best game in a white shirt – and England can cause issues assuming a solid platform. As for France, their front row will cause England some heartache and if England can’t contain the French back row then they will have real problems. However, the French defensive set up looks very suspect. It was a real shambles against Ireland and one cannot see it improving in 7 days. Why drop Parra? A very odd decision. Beauxis has come on the field in the past two games and shown nothing to inspire confidence. Outside Half looks a real talent gap and weak area in France at the moment and whilst Trinh-Duc is hardly inspirational; he is a far better player than the ponderous and slow Beauxis. A very strange decision to change halfbacks. Aurelien Rougerie has kept his place despite some very poor judgement against Ireland and erratic passing. England will target him and hope to follow Tommy Bowe with another interception try. I really don’t get the French selection logic. England must have been rubbing their hands with glee as the French selection was announced and they will be hoping their confidence self-destructs again. I believe England will cause a lot of French penalties and will build on their strong defensive showing against Wales. Another English triumph in Paris!

France 16 England 19