Six Nations 2011 - Final Thoughts

An exciting last weekend

Once again proving this is the greatest rugby competition in the world. In a world cup year, all of the Northern Hemisphere's premier nations have had a chance to have at least a modicum of success but who can build from here and who needs to think again? Lets review the teams and their ending positions:

England
Champions but no Grand Slam. A very disappointing ending for England who went out with a whimper rather than a bang. Poor against Scotland, they were blown away by a resurgent Ireland in Dublin. What was worrying was the complete lack of a plan B. Martin Johnson may be a great motivator but his strict adherence to a fixed plan and his natural dislike of unstructured play makes him very easy to eventually suss out. England looked very laboured in Dublin. Youngs and Flood, who had been so fresh and exciting earlier in the tournament looked lost when things didn't go England's way. Still lets no take anything away - England finished 4-1 in the tournament and will get stronger. The return of Lawes, Croft, Sheridan, Moody will all enhance England and their bench is the strongest of all except France. A shame they have no centres. Hape is not the answer and with Tindall and Flutey injured there is a massive hole here. England will revert to their forward dominated game and should make the World Cup semis and a match against Australia. Difficult to bet against England not making the World Cup Final again.

France

What can you say? Livremont put the boot in firmly with his squad and and his team responded, delivered, dominating and destroying Wales. But they still look disjointed and clearly have no idea of their best side. They will surprise a few people at the World Cup and could cause hosts New Zealand a few hand in mouth moments but where is the progress? This is a team which won a categoric Grand Slam last year and have wasted a year. Quarter Finals looks likely but then they will face England and unless France improve greatly in 5 short months their world cup will end there.

Ireland

The real jeckell and hyde team. Narrowly escaped humiliation by Italy, struggled against Scotland and would have lost with a more consistent referee; beaten by Wales and France; they raised their game to humiliate England. Sexton looks the shirt and was outstanding against England. Ireland's pack looked substandard all tournament until that final match. It is difficult to assess if this was a one off or a real resurgence by the Irish. Bowe and Reddan looked sharp. O'Connell is back and Sean O'Brien is one of players of the tournament. Ireland have a tough World Cup Pool with Australia and Italy. Assuming they scrape through as 2nd place team, they will face South Africa in the quarter finals. Ireland still too reliant on older players and a lengthy re-build likely post World Cup.

Wales

I predicted a wooden spoon for Wales and they came through with some solid results after a dismal Six Nations 2010 and Autumn humiliation. Unlucky to get England up firts, Wales played very well to beat Scotland, scraped home against Italy and had a lucky win against Ireland before being destroyed in Paris. Mike Philips still not the right choice for me and Wales will welcome back Richie Rees at scrum half. Similar in front row where Adam Jones and Gethin Jenkins will be back for World Cup. Bradley Davies and Alun Wynn-Jones continue to make progress in 2nd row, Lydiate and Warburton add quality in back row. The key player for Wales is Hook. He needs to stay at No. 10. Wales will be worrying about the lack of form shown by Roberts but encouraged by Jonathan Davies. Wingers another safe area with an embarrassment of riches. Wales have the toughest World Cup Pool with long term nemesis South Africa and traditional banana skin teams such as Fiji and Samoa. Wales should just scrape through and will face Australia. That could go either way which would set up a Semi Final with England. Quarter final defeat to the convicts looks the likely outcome but some encouraging signs for Wales.

Scotland

Robinson was my coach of tournament last year and I had backed Scotland to do well. Well shows you what I know as Scotland were laboured and never recovered really from being humiliated at Murrayfield by Wales. Ansbro looks a good prospect at Centre, Jackson the future at Fly half. Scottish back row looks strong and Richie Gray has emerged as a real prospect. Scotland will face the "auld enemy" in Pool B and will have to overcome Argentina to progress. Quarter Final against New Zealand and its all over.

Italy

Finally Italy showed some great form Could have been three wins. Ireland and Wales can feel very lucky to avoid defeat and France will forever be re-living the nightmare in Rome. Parisse was player of the tournament and several Italian players showed great form. They will have a tough World Cup and I don't see them making the quarter final but great progress and Nick Mallet can be rightly proud of the progress made by his team.

Hypothetical Lions Squad:
No British Lions Tour this summer due to World Cup but like last year - a quick look at the home nations form team:

15 Foden - gets the nod with several good performances. Earls close second.
14 Ashton - Still learning but no one doubts the talent
13 Ansbro - Surprise to many but I have been very impressed by this new Scottish flyer.
12 O'Driscoll - Still supreme. Class of his own.
11 Bowe - Looked great when he has played.
10 Sexton - Outstanding against England. gets the vote over Flood.
9 Reddan - No stand out player here. Embarrassing really.
1 Corbisiero - looked good. Edges out Paul James,
2 Hartley - Poor against Ireland but great elsewhere. Gets the hooking role
3 Ross - Cole went backwards and so doesn't get it. Mike Ross - Mr. Consistent.
4 Gray - A real emerging talent.
5 Palmer - A good series for Tom.
6 O'Brien - very impressive in every game.
8 Heaslip - A close call with Ryan Jones for me.
7 Warburton - forward of the tournament for me

1 Welshmen, 5 Englishmen, 7 Irishmen, 2 Scotsmen

Final Weekend

The Six Nations draws to a climax this weekend with the final round of matches. If you are English or Italian then you will be looking forward to a final weekend of triumph. If you're not - then you will be contemplating what could have been. Few could have predicted the outstanding win for Italy against France. Bergomasco's sphincter must have been popping as he hit that final kick. But fair play - a truly memorable victory. Almost nothing better than seeing Les Bleus humbled although I feel Wales may have the backlash this weekend. England and Scotland produced a dire battle of wills and Wales triumphed with a some what" dodgy" refereeing decision. Let take a look at the likely outcomes this weekend:

Scotland v Italy

Last chance saloon for Scotland to avoid yet another wooden spoon. What a disappointing season but at least the Bravehearts showed some bottle in facing up a nervous England at HQ. Richie Gray has been Scotland's man of the tournament for me and he needs another huge performance against Italy. The Scottish back row finally started to gel together and the backs showed some penetration. Italy will be on a high still and the outstanding Parisse will again be a handful for Scotland. The Scots do owe their long suffering fans a win and I feel the Italians are already dreaming of the beach. Scotland triumph at last.

Scotland 23 Italy 16

France v Wales

It is disappointing that Shane Williams swansong was in Cardiff and the Six Nations will no longer be graced with his dancing feet. The defeat in Rome will have seriously damaged French confidence and Livremont has wielded the axe on several of his team including the oh-so-disappointing Chabal. France will bounce back and will be looking for a fine finale against the dragons. Medard is always a treat. Parra brings quicker ball and the changes in backs should fix the handling errors which cost them so much in Rome. Despite ballgate, Wales always looked like they would conquer the Irish and they will give a strong account of themselves here. They will welcome back the rock in the front row that is Adam Jones and I see the Welsh scrummage standing up well to the French. Sam Warburton is rapidly becoming a worldclass talent at Flanker and Hook is settling into his natural role at fly half. George North will add bulk and power on the wing and I expect Wales to give the French a real tough outing. Enough to win in Paris? Its been a while but I have a sneaking feeling the Dragon will roar and they will win a tight match.

France 23 Wales 25

Ireland v England

I left the best game until last. England were stuttering and nervous in a awful game last week against the Scots. Expect England top bounce back strongly and fight all the way in Dublin. Banahan is a better option than Tindall and I am pleased to see him get the start. Young and Flood were poor against Scotland, not helped by a poor England back row. Croft is on the bench and expect him on with Danny Care, Thommo and Jonny also being critical replacements for England who have a strong bench. Ireland are rightly aggrieved about losing in Cardiff and BoD has been angry and scathing in the press. That isn't good for England. Expect lost of Irish fury being vented in St' Paddy's week. The excellent Trimble is back at winger and Earls will be solid at full back. The real issue for Ireland will be goal kicking and their weak pack. Sexton has been very poor and is an odd choice to bring back in for this game. I am not an O'Gara fan but he is the more reliable kicker and clearly more experienced. Expect lots of England penalties and that will be the deciding factor. England will dominate the forwards and with the exception of Sean O'Brien and Mike Ross, Ireland's pack has been desperately disappointing. England win and deserved grand slam for the white machine but it will tight.

Ireland 21 England 29

Week 4 - Difficult to focus

It's been a tough week to be thinking about Rugby. I've spent the week in Moscow. An old school friend lost his wife at a tragically early age and then with all of the disaster in Japan - it seems wrong somehow to be worrying about the frivolities of 30 men chasing a ball. Thank god Richard Freeman and his family are safe in Yokohama although Rich in true rugby style had to spend the night at the Japanese RFU!

So - let's take a brief look at this weekend's fixtures. Two easy victories and one tight game difficult to call.

Italy v France

No surprise expected here. France will bounce back from the defeat by England top an easy victory over a stuttering Italian team. How it could have been different for Nick mallet and his team. A victory over Ireland could have been followed up with a win against a poor Welsh team and the dream of three wins in a season. As it happens, they will face Scotland for one last chance of any glory this season. France drop Chabal and Harinordoguy were both poor against England and pay the penalty today, France will also miss Yachvili - out with a late thigh strain; but will have too much forward power and talent to slip up today. I am delighted to see Medard return today - anyone with big sidies like that deserves their place on entertainment value alone. He reminds me of a young JPR Williams - not just in looks but in talent and pace. For Italy, I have been impressed with McLean and Parisse but they will have little ball and France will win comfortably.

Italy 9 France 30

Wales v Ireland

The pick of the weekend's games and it should be a titanic tussle at the Millennium. Ireland have a great record here with only one defeat and will fancy their chances again today. O'Gara impressed against Scotland and keeps his place in a largely unchanged line up. I am surprised to not see Trimble start ahead of Keith Earls. He has been in excellent form for Ulster. Sean O'Brien has impressed in the back row and Mike Ross will give Paul James a stiff challenge up front. For Wales, the aim will be to keep the ball out of Irish hands and their dangerous threequarter line. Hook is rightly restored at fly half and Roberts and Davies form a powerful duo against BoD and Darcy. halfpenny will add significant pace out wide and he is in strong kicking form so expect at least one long penalty today for half way line. The Welsh forwards need to get on top early and we will be hoping Jonathan Kaplan does a better job than Nigel Owens in penalizing Ireland's pack. Their persistent foul play and weak scrummaging was the reason Scotland failed to beat them and Wales must be hoping for firmer officiating. Bradley Davies and Wynne-Jones can match the fading O'Connell and O'Callaghan and win their line out and the Welsh back row has been on top form in all matches so far. Expect a tight game with Wales coming out on top. Just.

Wales 19 Ireland 17

England v Scotland

England have been streets ahead of all other teams and Scotland will offer little threat at HQ. Despite Townsend talking up Scottish hopes, no Scottish team has own here since 1983 and with only 4 wins ever at HQ; one cannot see an upset here and England will be far too powerful for the jocks who will be sent homeward to think again on Sunday. Kelly Brown has been dropped for poor form and the Church calling Euan Murray means another tough test for Moray low against Alex Corbisiero who has impressed with his performances this season. Young Jackson gets another start ahead of Dan Parks and lets hope he doesn't bottle it. He is a good talent but two poor games and his confidence could be shot forever. Look at Matthew Tait - he never recovered from been Hensoned and I fear young Jackson could go the same way. Flood's fitness will be a worry for England but Jonny will be standing by to come on and you couldn't ask for a safer, stronger substitute. Expect more Ashton swallow dives, Youngs dominating at scrum half and a very comfortable England victory. The White machine is rolling on an inevitable Grand Slam this season. For Scotland, defeat by less than 10 points will feel like a victory.

England 26 Scotland 9