Final Thoughts - 2019 Six Nations

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This is my 10^th year of writing Rugby Raconteur. During that decade, I have written 66 blog missives. I have predicted the results of 150 matches and now stand with statistics of predicting the correct results in 117 matches – a 78% success rate!

This project takes on a life of its own between January and March each year and the positive feedback I receive is very satisfying given the huge amount of research required and time taken to write the blog for a relatively small limited audience. Thank you for taking the time to read my words and I trust you all enjoy the insights I try to provide as the tournament progresses.

The 2019 Guinness has been a cracking tournament and once again showed some surprises right up to the final whistle of the final match. It truly is the World’s best annual rugby competition and I for one, hope World Rugby’s plans fail and the tournament stays sacrosanct.

Some final thoughts on what unfolded over the seven weeks of the tournament.

Team of the Championship – WALES

Congratulations to Wales who won a 12^th Grand Slam and their third during Warren Gatland’s period as head coach. Wales did it in their own way and after the first 40 minutes of the 1^st match on a wet and windy night in Paris, a 16-0 score line in favour of France then a Grand Slam looked far away.

Wales made hard work of wins in Paris, Rome and Edinburgh but were outstanding in the two home matches against England and Ireland beating their two best opponents in fine fettle.

Wales have conceded just 58 points in the 2019 Championship, the lowest total in the competition – a real telling endorsement of their emphasis on defence and the work of Shaun Edwards in particular.  Josh Navidi and Justin Tipuric did 150 tackles between them with an average of 16 each per match. Compare that with Peter O’Mahoney of Ireland who against Wales made 2 carries to gain 2 metres and made 2 tackles. Defence wins matches.

Deserved champions!

Player of the Tournament – Alun Wyn Jones

Captain Courageous played 350 minutes of Wales 5 games. He made 71 tackles in 5 the 5 matches but more importantly he established himself as probably the World’s best captain. He led by example in every game and is a true role model for all young players at any level.

Coach of the Tournament – Shaun Edwards

Defences win matches. Shaun Edwards is the absolute pinnacle of the world’s defensive organisers and a superb motivator.  Whilst most of the press is (rightly) paying tribute to Warren Gatland – he would not be where he is without his side kick and companion Edwards. He will be pissed off and upset for Wales letting in that final Irish try – such as a perfectionist should be. Simply a legend!

Most Exciting Team to Watch - England

When England were working in harmony you had to be transfixed. The marker they laid down in Dublin was outstanding and to open the tournament in such a manner away against the team ranked number two in the world was breath-taking.

Jonny May turned into a quality finished. In Tom Curry, England have their best flanker since Richard Hill. Their depth in wingers is unbelievable. Nowell, May, Ashton, Cokanasiga not forgetting the absent Anthony Watson. Unfortunately, England did not look great when Owen Farrell failed to hit consistent form.

Their spectacular collapse against Scotland when leading 31-0 after 30 minutes showed a real lack of mental toughness and once again England lacked leadership on the field when the chips counted. Take nothing away – this team when they are on top with their tails up they look awesome. More consistency required before they can start dreaming of World Cup glory.

Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics 

The game today is dominated by Statistics. You can get any stat on any team or player but does it all matter?  I’ve been watching rugby for 47 years and I don’t know what a dominant tackle is? Does anyone?

Wales were bottom in almost all the team statistics and yet won a Grand Slam.  They had the lowest number of Carries – 569, with the lowest number of line breaks – 29, metres gained 1480, defenders beaten – 69, and passes made – 621. More focus on watching the play and less focus on meaningless stats will help.

Championship All Star XV 

15 Liam Williams (Wales)

Liam Williams was outstanding. Imperious in the air and deadly in attack. A brilliant talent who gave Wales enormous assurance in aerial exchanges and, as usual, proved an elusive runner in attack. He enjoyed one of his finest Six Nations campaigns. Sanjay has been brilliant throughout and his ability to also play on the wing has been key, as seen against Ireland. In the England game he had an answer for everything and, while Elliot Daly may arguably be a more dangerous runner in open spaces, Williams has not put a foot wrong. Leigh who?

Honourable mention: Elliott Daly (England)

14 Jonny May (England)

Jonny May has developed into a devastating finisher. He has gone in Jonathan Davies’s word from “a headless chicken to a world beater”. Jonny May goes from strength to strength in an England jersey. He knows the way to the try-line with 14 in his past 15 matches but what has impressed me most is his aerial skills, whether being kicked to or chasing Ben Youngs’ box kicks. He has commanded the air, wins the space between himself and the receiver and on top of that is England’s strike weapon. He took almost every scoring chance he could and was again solid in defence.

Honourable mention: Damian Penaud (France)

13 Henry Slade (England)

Made for an exciting addition to England’s midfield and really knitted the back-line together. Jonathan Davies has been incredibly solid for Wales but, looking at outside-centre, I’ve loved watching Slade play. When he is given some freedom, when he gets the ball in wide areas, he has shown his brilliance. He has an ability to ghost through gaps, makes good decisions and is a left-footed kicking option.

Honourable mention: Jonathan Davies (Wales)

12 Hadleigh Parkes (Wales)

Hadleigh Parkes has struggled with form all season. His club form has been average at best and an unimpressive Autumn didn’t auger well for the Six Nations. But when he needed to stand up and be counted he was there. His fall on the fall with the onrushing Jonny May probably saved a try against England. His “man of the match” performance against Scotland in defence and attack. His final cameos came with him collecting Gareth Anscombe’s delicate chip to score a try in the 1st minute against Ireland following it up with a quite superb tackle on a flying Jacob Stockdale. He earned his place in this XV after getting through mountains of work in setting that dominant Welsh defence.

Honourable mention: Bundee Aki (Ireland)

11 Josh Adams (Wales)

What a year for Josh Adams. From being dropped by Warren Gatland halfway through last year’s Championship, to cracking the six-man shortlist for the Guinness Six Nations Player of the Championship in 2019. The 23-year-old has established himself on the wing for Wales and played a key role in their Grand Slam success. His breaks against France and his try against England were key moments for Wales. One of only four players to start every game for Gatland’s side, he ended up with three tries in the Championship.

Honourable mention: Darcy Graham (Scotland)

10 Finn Russell (Scotland)

Half backs win matches. The mercurial Finn Russell had a curate’s egg of a competition but when Finn plays well, Scotland play well. Russell, for all his unbridled talent, has had some undoubted occasional shockers in a Scotland jersey, but quite rightly has shaken every one of them off. The tournament’s final game was a thrilling watch and Russell was at the heart of it as he padded out his assist stats. Also impressed in breaking down Wales’ defence in week four with a slick set-play execution. The picture of his face at the end of the Calcutta Cup summed it up. A real enigma! With the two Lions playmakers off form at different points of the tournament Wales sharing their 10 duties, Russell’s exceptional skill gets the nod here.

Honourable mention: Gareth Anscombe (Wales)

9 Ben Youngs (England)

This has not been a tournament for great No. 9 displays. Gareth Davies has been stuttering for Wales. Conor Murray has been simply dreadful and Greig Laidlaw out of form. Ben Youngs has been solid and consistent for England with (mainly) quick ball and safe box kicking. His half-back partner lost form as the tournament wore on, but Youngs continued to set the tone for England with zippy passing and consistently accurate kicking. Best of an average bunch.

Honourable mention: Tito Tibaldi (Italy)

1 Cian Healy (Ireland)

Ireland’s scrum was once again in fine shape during the championship and Healy helped lockdown the loose head side, which gave Murray a solid platform from which to launch attacks. He carried well, too, and that was probably the decisive factor which saw him nudge ahead of Rob Evans, who was also very effective for Wales. Unfortunately for Healy, he seemed to get on the wrong side of referee Angus Gardener in the Cardiff encounter in Round 5.

Honourable mention: Rob Evans (Wales)

2 Jamie George (England)

The English line out was metronomic consistency and Jamie George has continued his Lions form this season to make the No. 2 jersey his own. Ken Owens had some strong games but was inconsistent in the line out. Similar with Rory Best at Ireland and Stuart McInally pushed George hard all through the Calcutta Cup game.

Honourable mention: Stuart McInally (Scotland)

3 Tomas Francis  (Wales)

From the fat prop two years ago, who could scrummage okay has arisen a world class tight head. Francis had the measure of every loose head prop during the 4 games he started. It’s no mean feat taking on some giant scrummagers but Francis has also developed a very strong defensive game and increasingly involved in the loose. The cornerstone of Wales’ Grand Slam. Francis was brimming with intent on every carry, tackle and set-piece.

A rock at the heart of the Welsh pack.

Honourable mention: Kyle Sinckler (England)

4 George Kruis (England)

Kruis had a strong tournament and is the organiser of England’s line out platform.  He’s back to his very best form. He suffered from the Lions, getting dropped after that first game; and has had his fair share of injuries. A solid hard working lock forward performance. A tower of strength in the England pack, the consistent presence Eddie Jones has built his pack and set-piece around and he doesn’t skimp on work around the field.

Honourable mention: Jonny Gray (Scotland)

5 Alun-Wyn Jones (Wales) (CAPTAIN)

Nothing to add – player of the championship!

Honourable mention: Adam Beard  (Wales)

6 Josh Navidi (Wales)

An awesome performer who gives absolutely 100% every game. His work rate is phenomenal. His tackle count is ridiculous. He’s had a massive void to fill with Sam Warburton hanging up his boots but he’s done it. Second forward name on Gatland’s team sheet. A relentless workhorse that kept Wales ticking in tough times away to France and Italy. He didn’t let up in the battles with England and Ireland either.

Honourable mention: Magnus Bradbury (Scotland)

7 Tom Curry (England)

The breakthrough player of the Six Nations. Curry has been absolutely world class. Turnovers, ball carries, smashing boys – he’s just hard as nails; and he’s only 20-years-old, which is just farcical. The best England flanker since the legendary Richard Hill.

Honourable mention: Arthur Iturria (France)

8 Ross Moriarty (Wales)

An absolute brute and warrior. In the absence of Taulupe Falatau, Moriarty has made the Welsh No. 8 jersey his own. His ability to get over the gainline and ball carrying has been immense but also his ability in the tackle. As expected from a Moriarty – no quarter is ever given and he is a real tribute to his family name.

Honourable mention: Billy Vunipola (England)

Round 5 - Clash of The Celtic Tigers...

The final round of matches for the 2019 Guinness Six Nations tournament takes place this weekend with 3 teams still in with a chance of winning the title.  The “Super Saturday” concept will all three remaining games being staggered through the day has been a huge success since its introduction in 2004.

Wales, England and Ireland will all head into Super Saturday with hopes of clinching the 2019 Guinness Six Nations title. Wales welcome Ireland to Cardiff knowing that victory for Warren Gatland’s men will guarantee them both the Grand Slam and the Championship.

A clean sweep of five wins would earn Wales an extra three bonus points in the final standings, putting them out of England’s reach regardless of whether Eddie Jones’ men can beat Scotland in the final game of Super Saturday.

It’s been an excellent tournament this year with some close and exciting matches. So, without further ado – let’s review the final matches:

Italy v France

The early kick off sees Les Bleus head to Rome. France were bitterly disappointing in Dublin which again shows the unpredictability of French rugby after their thrashing of Scotland in Paris in Round 3.  

Despite two late tries from Chat and Huget, the stats don’t lie, and France were totally outclassed by the Irish who enjoyed 89% territory in the first half, and finished with 72%  percent making seven clean breaks, to just one for their opponents. France were massively out-played by Ireland, only responding with two consolation tries after falling 26 points in arrears.

It was their 10th loss in Brunel’s 14-match reign. For French rugby to move forward it’s becoming clear that they have to have some selection stability and build a team build on the young guns who have debuted in this tournament.  That selectional stability must believe; come with change of Head Coach.  

Jacques Brunel has a proven coaching heritage. Then so did Guy Noves and Phillipe Saint-André before him. France have stuck with French coaches since Bernard Laporte left in 2007. France need new eyes and they could do worse than look to former Scotland coach Vern Cotter. 

Scotland made the unwise decision to remove Cotter to keep Gregor Townsend in the fold and that has hardly been an unmitigated success. Cotter is a shrewd and talented coach who left his position at Scotland with a 53% win rate (19 wins from 36 games) the most successful coach of Scotland in the professional era and the most successful since Ian McGeechan between 1988 and 1993.

Brunel’s future lies in the hands of the FFR and given their tolerance of mediocrity, it’s difficult to see them take the decisive steps required to improve France before the forthcoming World Cup in Japan.

Beleaguered Jacques Brunel has ripped asunder his France team that were humiliated in Dublin last Sunday. His final team of the 2019 championship inevitably sees six changes for the clash with Italy. The under-fire coach has responded by ringing the changes for fear that their terrible Six Nations campaign could finish on the humiliating low of a Stadio Olimpico defeat. 

Wesley Fofana is recalled from injury and comes in for his final Guinness Six Nations game, replacing Gael Fickou in a new midfield partnership with Mathieu Bastareaud. 

Maxime Medard is the other change in the backline, slotting in at full-back replacing Thomas Ramos which is a backward step. Ramos is named amongst the replacements. Medard will link up with Damian Penaud and Yohan Huget in the back three.

Up front Etienne Falgoux makes his first France start in place of the injured Jefferson Poirot.

Paul Willemse returns to the starting XV in the second row replacing Sebastien Vahaamahina while Gregory Alldritt and Yacouba Camara both come into the back row replacing Arthur Iturria and Wenceslas Lauret. Iturria is named on the bench whilst Lauret drops out of the match day 23.

Camille Lopez is recalled to the bench with Stade Francais’ Second row Paul Gabrillagues.

For Italy, there was no surprise in the nature of their defeat at Twickenham. They were simply blown away by the sheer power of England – especially their back division to whom they had no answer. 

But there were some small crumbs of comfort for coach Conor O’Shea as Italy never gave up and never stopped trying. What we saw were a lot of players who played right up until the final whistle. They are a A+ for effort and a E for achievement in this year’s tournament.

Conor O’Shea has made five changes to his Italy side as they bid to avoid yet another Six Nations wooden spoon. The Azzurri are on a 20-match losing streak in the tournament and have opted to change a third of the team beaten in last Saturday’s round four game by England.

O’Shea’s only tweak in the back line to face struggling France is in midfield where he has handed 21 year old Benetton centre Marco Zanon his debut alongside club-mate Luca Morisi in place of the injured Michele Campagnaro.
However, he has rung the changes up front, altering half of those who started at Twickenham. 

Jake Polledri returns to the starting line-up in the back row, David Sisi is back in the second row for the injured Dean Budd, while Tiziano Pasquali and Leonardo Ghiraldini also return to the front row.

It’s very hard to see anything other than a French victory but I do believe they will have to work for it. Brunel will have seen the way that England’s powerful centres T’eo and Tuigali ran through the Italian defence so expect to see a lot from Mathieu Bastareaud as they will seek to bash their way to success in Rome. 

Conor O'Shea and the Azzurri are desperate to finish this Championship on a high with their first victory. They downed France in Rome back in 2011 and 2013 and gave them a real fright in Paris three years ago.

As always it’s a case of which France will turn up. They have to get it right and recover from the disappointments in Dublin and I see France winning a tight encounter by at least seven points.

Italy 18 France 25

Wales v Ireland

Match two is the titanic clash between the two Celtic Tigers in Cardiff.  This clash is always spiky and despite the shared heritage between the two nations there will be no quarter given once the referee starts the match.

Wales will be seeking their 12th Grand Slam and their 1st since 2012 and Warren Gatland could potentially bow out as the first coach to win three Grand Slams. During his reign, Wales achieved clean sweeps in 2008 and 2012, and it is the New Zealander's final Six Nations match before he leaves his post after the World Cup in Japan later this year.

As a Welshman, I am absolutely delighted to see the Dragons be in such a position, but their championship has not made easy watching for anyone of a nervous disposition. Wales have been far from convincing on the road. 

Wales have continued to grind their way forward but only their clash with England has been of real merit. They rode their luck against France coming back from a 16-0 deficit. Stuttered to victory against Italy in Rome and used every ounce of defensive nouce against Scotland after appearing to be in a comfortable position at half time.

Wales showed just why they are regarded by many as  the best defensive side in the world by repelling multiple Scottish attacks at Murrayfield. Josh Navidi has become a solid wall and his back row companion Justin Tipuric who is more renowned as a tricky attacking & has joined him as they form a machine at the heart of the Welsh defence.

Warren Gatland has named an unchanged match-day squad to face Ireland in their Grand Slam showdown. Wales’ tournament finale will be Warren Gatland’s 50th Six Nations match for Wales - and also his last Championship game as Wales boss.

Captain Alun Wyn Jones will equal Gethin Jenkins’ total test appearance record as he moves to 134 test caps (125 Wales, 9 British & Irish Lions) and to joint fifth in the overall world test appearance list. He again packs down with Adam Beard in the second row, with Rob Evans, Ken Owens and Tomas Francis continuing together in the front row – Josh Navidi, Justin Tipuric and Ross Moriarty comprise the back row.

Gareth Davies and Gareth Anscombe are named as the half-backs with Hadleigh Parkes and Jonathan Davies in the centres.

Josh Adams, George North and Liam Williams once again comprise the back-three for Wales.

The big surprise is they fitness of Liam Williams. When he left the field with his arm in a makeshift sling against Scotland last weekend, Liam Williams’ chances of starting against Ireland looked highly unlikely. But, lo and behold, Williams has made it.

The talented footballer has a renowned high pain threshold, and his availability is a huge plus for Wales, for he has been one of the players of the Six Nations with his work under the high ball and counter-attacking prowess.

Gatland has also retained the replacements' bench personnel selected for Edinburgh, with a fit-again Leigh Halfpenny missing out on a first Test match involvement since he suffered concussion when Wales beat Australia in November. Elliot Dee, Nicky Smith and Dillon Lewis provide the front-row cover on the bench, with Jake Ball and Aaron Wainwright completing the forward contingent. Aled Davies, Dan Biggar and Owen Watkin once again provide the backline cover.

For Ireland – they are still one of the strongest sides in the World and will absolutely not want to give an inch to Wales. They will have no fear of Wales and have a great record at the Principality stadium winning on 4 of their last 7 visits although you have to go back to 2103 for their last victory.

Ireland rediscovered their 2018 mojo to thump France 26-14 in Dublin in Round 4 and sustain their slender Guinness Six Nations title hopes.

Ireland’s bonus-point win means victory against Grand Slam-chasing Wales in Cardiff on Saturday could yet sweep the title, though that would also require an England slip-up against Scotland at Twickenham.

Schmidt’s men finally showed the kind of form that elevated them above all comers in 2018, a year that comprised a Grand Slam and second victory over New Zealand. To achieve that against a background of a growing casualty list has been a great turn around for Joe Schmidt after his team were blown away by England in Round 1.

One of the big factors hurting Ireland has been the ever-changing back row combinations that required  yet another alteration when they face Wales.  Joe Schmidt hasn’t been able to select the same back row from one match to the next in the 2019 championship, and he must now tweak his selection again after it was confirmed that Josh van der Flier is unavailable due to the knock he picked up in last Sunday’s win over France.

Schmidt makes three changes for the game against Wales. 

Tadhg Beirne will make his Six Nations debut for Ireland. The former Scarlets favourite will know exactly what to expect from Wales as he replaces the injured Iain Henderson (knee) and starts in the second row alongside James Ryan. 

Beirne, 27, made his international debut during last summer's tour of Australia and has four caps.

Rob Kearney, who was a late withdrawal last weekend, returns at full-back having recovered from a calf strain. 

The front row remains unchanged with Cian Healy and Tadhg Furlong either side of captain Rory Best, who will make his final championship appearance. 

Munster men Peter O'Mahony and CJ Stander retain their places in the back row, while Jack Conan who impressed last week, playing just under an hour of the 26-14 win, returns to the bench.

The Conor Murray and Johnny Sexton half-back partnership remains intact, while Bundee Aki and Garry Ringrose line out in the centre.

Jacob Stockdale and Keith Earls keep their wing berths. 

Munster duo Niall Scannell, Dave Kilcoyne plus Andrew Porter cover the front row off the bench, with Ultan Dillane and Conan the other forward replacements. 

Scrum-half Kieran Marmion may get his first taste of Six Nations action this year off the bench, with Jack Carty and Jordan Larmour covering the rest of the backline.

This is all set to be an incredible contest. Ireland are one of the top rated teams in the world. The back row Ireland have named looks fearsome. The return of Sean O'Brien could be significant. With Beirne and James Ryan in front of them in the engine room and a front row of skipper Rory Best at hooker with Tadhg Furlong and Cian Healy amounts to a pack that will take some subduing and then some.

The Irish back-line is also hugely experienced and retains a potent attacking look.

But let’s not forget Wales are at home and going for a title. Under Warren Gatland’s direction they have usually responded positively to the pressure of seriously big occasions, as underlined against England in Cardiff just over a fortnight ago. Apart from anything else it is now a decade since Wales last lost at home on a final Six Nations weekend. Ireland have not won in Wales in the Six Nations since 2013 and this weekend’s matchday atmosphere will once again be off the scale.

It's an incredibly strong Irish side and Wales will need to take the England performance and go a level higher to come out on top. It will all come down to the day, on any day Ireland could beat Wales, but the same could be said about Wales, it’s who wants it most on the day.  I think it will be decided in the last 5 minutes. Wales to snatch it, just.

Wales 23 Ireland 21

England v Scotland

The final game of Super Saturday sees England take on the “Auld Enemy” Scotland in the 126th Calcutta Cup encounter at Twickenham. The highlanders will be seeking their first win at HQ since 1983 and after the failures against France and Wales it is going to a vertical cliff for them to climb to repeat last season’s triumph.

England continued to impress this Six Nations with the expected demolition of Italy in Round 4.  At “Fortress Twickenham” they will be seeking revenue for the way they gave up the cup in such a meek way in Murrayfield last season. 

England head coach Eddie Jones has named his team to play Scotland and there are four changes to the starting XV that lined up against Italy last week. Jones has sprung a major surprise by dropping Joe Cokanasiga.

Jack Nowell who has recovered from a shoulder stinger injury replaces him on the right wing. Cokanasiga was named man of the match after Italy were swept aside in the penultimate round of the championship and was compared to Jonah Lomu by Clive Woodward, but the Fijian-born wing cannot even win a place on the bench for the Calcutta Cup showdown.

Henry Slade replaces Ben Te’o who drops to the bench whilst Ben Moon swaps with Ellis Genge  in the front row and Mark Wilson is recalled for Brad Shields who is also named as a finisher.

Ben Spencer is also in line for a Guinness Six Nations debut if called off the bench as England chase a revenge victory over the Auld Enemy. 

Ben Youngs will pick up his 85th cap for his country on Saturday and will become England’s most capped scrum half of all time moving ahead of Danny Care.

For Gregor Townsend’s Scotland perhaps the crucial question following performances in patches against both Wales and Ireland is whether they can click and start converting chances.

Against Wales, Scotland had more possession (59%), territory (58%), played more balls (362 to 259) and carried almost double the amount of metres (872.9 to 472.7) but they were unable to turn that into sufficient points as Wales held firm to prevail.

Plenty more chances will come against Eddie Jones’ England – The Red Rose kick the ball away more than any other side – 134 from hand this Championship compared to Scotland’s 82.

As a result, Scotland can expect plenty of possession on Saturday while England are happier without it – their total of 43.2% possession is the lowest of all six sides despite scoring 19 tries and counting.

Scotland have also been cruelly robbed of the chance to really compete this competition by their on-going injury crisis which shows no sign of abating. I discussed the lack of squad depth in last week’s preview – so no point going over old ground here.

Coach Gregor Townsend has made six changes to the starting Scotland team to face England in this Saturday’s final round Six Nations match at Twickenham.

Scotland’s team changes are split evenly between the backs and forwards and see English Premiership pair Sean Maitland  and Byron McGuigan  start in place of back three counterparts Blair Kinghorn and Tommy Seymour – both injured in last weekend’s loss to Wales – alongside try-scorer Darcy Graham.

The alterations to the back division are completed by Glasgow Warriors inside centre Sam Johnson, who starts his fourth Test of the tournament in place of club-mate Pete Horne. Johnson partners fellow Warrior Nick Grigg in midfield, with half-backs Finn Russell and Ali Price starting once again.

The starting back row features two of the three pack changes where  Hamish Watson is recalled and will earn his 25th cap in place of Jamie Ritchie, who has not recovered sufficiently from the head/neck injury sustained against Wales to feature this weekend.

Sam Skinner – injured in the opening round win over Italy – returns to blindside flank in place of  Josh Strauss – who moves to the bench – with Magnus Bradbury moving to the national No8 position for the first time.

The last change sees Ben Toolis start in place of Jonny Gray – who moves to the bench – alongside club-mate Grant Gilchrist to form an all-Edinburgh tight five with returning front row forwards Allan Dell, captain Stuart McInally and Willem Nel. It means all but one of the starting pack hails from the capital club.

Scotland have been more than in the game in their three defeats and if chances are taken, England could be in for a real fight. Throughout the competition it’s been those final passes, those final steps to get over the line, that’s been stopping Scotland.

They have got those positives, they will be creating chances, but the unanswered question is can they take that to the next step now and start putting these teams away?

It looks unlikely. England will have their tails up and despite the result in Cardiff – even if Wales have already won the Grand Slam by kick off; England will want to end on a high note and lay down a marker that the defeat in Cardiff was just a one off aberration and their World cup juggernaut is still moving in the right direction.

They will have far too much power for Scotland, and I fear a repeat of 2017 and that Townsend’s troops will be in for a heavy battering.

England 53 Scotland 13

Round 4 - who dares wins!

Round 4 - who dares wins!

The penultimate round of Six Nations matches arrives this weekend after the excitement and drama of Round 3. France finally found winning ways with a demolition of Scotland. Wales defied the pundits and delivered a knockout punch to England’s momentum whilst Ireland managed their bonus point win over Italy, but it was a far from convincing performance. 

All of that lines up to an exciting set of contests in Round 4. Let’s review the matches…

Scotland v Wales

First match up this weekend sees Wales travel north to take on Gregor Townsend’s Scotland in the early kick off. The unbeaten tournament leaders, who are seeking a first Six Nations clean sweep since 2012, will tackle a wounded Scotland at Murrayfield on Saturday.

With the Scots beaten by France in Paris just a few hours before Wales defeated England in Cardiff in Round 3, Warren Gatland’s men will start the match as firm favourites in most people’s eyes. But Townsend will have hopes of an upset, with Scotland having defeated the Welsh in Edinburgh two years ago and, before the recent defeat by Ireland, enjoying a run of superb home form. 

Wales were outstanding against England. Nothing more to add above what the press have already sated. They finished with 65 percent possession and 68 percent territory by the end of the game. A fantastic second-half effort. England made 99 more tackles than Wales - which tells its own story - while Wales made 714 in metres against England's 471.

It was a typical derby match caldron of an atmosphere with England looking the more dangerous in the 1st half and Wales were lucky to keep them to just one try. 

But slowly, Wales inched back in to the game. At 10-9, Farrell’s missed kick to touch and England’s loss of discipline meant Wales firmly had them rattled and then beat them at their own game with the 35 phases of pick and go leading to Cory Hill’s try. The welsh crowd could sense blood and literally sang their team to victory with 15 minutes to go.

Liam Williams was rightly named Man of the Match and Wales now need to build on it with two games remaining. Ross Moriarty was an absolute warrior at No.8 and Josh Adams is cementing his place at wing with another great performance.

The Anscombe/Biggar debate at outside half  for now at least;  on hold. The current strategy of Anscombe staring with Biggar coming off the bench is working well and the different styles both offer attacking capabilities that the Welsh back line are more than capable of finishing.

It’s a shame the WRU seem intent on screwing everything up with the leaking of a potential regional merger between the Ospreys and Scarlets and the public mudslinging over the past days as the grand plan unravelled. With so many of their players in the Welsh squad how could you be so stupid as to cause upset and unsettle players before a crucial weekend encounter? Only the WRU can be that stupid and their reputation as the Worst Run Union is once again there for all to see. Grab your shotgun and shoot yourself in the foot. Utter mismanagement and stupidity. 

So, against that backdrop, Wales have announced their match day squad early as Warren Gatland has made just one injury-enforced change to his starting XV as lock Adam Beard comes into the team to take on Scotland. The returning Beard – who started the first two games of the Championship before coming off the bench against England in Cardiff – remains unbeaten in his first 11 Test caps in a Welsh jersey and replaces the injured Cory Hill.

Rob Evans, Ken Owens and Tomas Francis again form the front row with Josh Navidi, Justin Tipuric and Ross Moriarty named in the back row.

Gareth Davies and Gareth Anscombe start at scrum-half and fly-half respectively with Hadleigh Parkes and Jonathan Davies forming the midfield partnership.

Josh Adams, George North and Liam Williams line-up in the back-three.

Elliot Dee, Nicky Smith and Dillon Lewis provide the front row cover on the bench with Jake Ball and Aaron Wainwright completing the forward contingent. Aled Davies, Dan Biggar and Owen Watkin provide the backline cover.

No real surprises here although Gatland might have been tempted to add Leigh Halfpenny to the bench after his impressive performance last weekend against Munster. 

They have lost just once in Edinburgh during the past 12 years, and another victory would then see Wales go for Six Nations glory when Ireland visit Cardiff on 16 March.

For Scotland – the manner of their defeat in Paris will be hugely disappointing. Scotland were simply unable to match the power and skill of Les Bleus and In the end they should be thankful that the margin of defeat wasn’t greater and were lucky to escape without a larger hammering.

There are several ways to look at the Scottish performance in Paris.  
Firstly,  it’s clear that a rejuvenated France actually played very well and dominated the game in all areas. 

Secondly – it may just have been one of those days when a good team never quite gets going, when it looks slow of mind and foot, and consequently mistakes abound. 

Thirdly, although Scotland probably do have more strength in depth than before, this isn’t so great that they can overcome the loss of six or seven first-choice players, among them their two most dangerous backs and most experienced flankers. 

There’s something to be said for all three explanations. I had a nasty feeling very early in the match that things were going to go wrong. Scotland got a penalty in their 22 immediately after the kick-off. Blair Kinghorn found touch and then they lost the resulting lineout on their own throw. A small incident but one that set the course for the game. 

Scotland were rarely secure in possession and for the first hour at least almost all the ball won was painfully slow. There were too many defensive mistakes of the kind which at Test match level should be avoidable and which are usually punished. It’s also obvious that a Scotland XV without Stuart Hogg, Finn Russell, John Barclay, Hamish Watson and Huw Jones is significantly weaker than one that includes them. It may be that some of the replacements are never quite going to cut it at international level, no matter how good they look in club matches.

Then you have Greig Laidlaw. He has been poor in all three rounds so far. His kicking accuracy has been off, and he has been found absent too many times in defence. Scotland have been ponderous in attack for much of this championship, especially in that dreadful display in Paris, and Laidlaw must shoulder some of the responsibility.

So, it’s no surprise that he has been dropped from the team to face Wales with Coach Gregor Townsend making four changes to his starting XV.  

Talismanic Finn Russell is back after missing the loss to France with a head injury and he starts at fly-half. The return of the Racing 92 man sees Pete Horne move to inside-centre in place of Sam Johnson where he partners Scotstoun colleague Nick Grigg. 

Ali Price is the surprise change to partner Russell at half back although it should be noted that they know each other very well form their time together at Glasgow. Price is a competent scrum half and who has come off the bench in seven Championship matches since last starting against Wales in February 2018. Townsend is no mug. He knows Laidlaw has been struggling and he will need more than one scrum half for the forthcoming World cup. Price ticks all the boxes.  

Darcy Graham replaces the ailing injured Sean Maitland on the wing and scrumming expert WP Nel is back at prop.

In Laidlaw’s absence, Stuart McInally captains the side from hooker. In the pack,  Townsend has selected an unchanged back-five, with Grant Gilchrist partnering Jonny Gray - in the second-row while Magnus Bradbury, Jamie Ritchie and Josh Strauss retain their back-row places.

Jonny Gray and Tommy Seymour will both make their 50th Scotland appearances whilst warrior Hamish Watson returns from injury to the Scottish bench. There are two other changes among the replacements, with loosehead prop Gordon Reid and utility back Byron McGuigan in with a chance of featuring for the first time this campaign. 

If you look at the form book, then a Wales win looks likely, but, it is possible that Scotland still have a sting in the tail. We only have to turn the clock back 12 months to remember Scotland’s last big win in the Six Nations at Murrayfield against England when they produced a monumental performance on the day. They can do certainly that again on Saturday, but they have to improve in many areas especially in defence. 

Scotland have just misfired so far. There has not been an intensity to their game so far this championship. There is a high risk that their championship could fizzle out by getting defeated in the last two games.

The huge distractions and turmoil in Wales this week will have no doubt unsettled the players and if Scotland build up a lead then it may be hard for Wales to raise their game again. The Welsh line out has been appalling despite the victories and the back row battle will be the key area. Whomever wins this will win the match. It’s a mouth-watering prospect. Ross Moriarty was an absolute beast against England whilst Jamie Ritchie leads the way in the Six Nations in terms of breakdown steals 

I believe Wales have just too much experience and power to lose this one. If they can build a platform then the Anscombe/Biggar axis at outside half can orchestrate an attacking Welsh back line and pick up another victory. Scotland have nothing to lose and Wales need to muster every ounce of mental strength in what has been a damaging week for rugby in the principality.

Scotland 16 Wales 24

England v Italy

England went into the crucial encounter in Cardiff with many expecting England simply to bulldozer Wales aside and record another win in Cardiff. But the game didn’t follow the script as England failed to dominate up front and their kicking game went disastrously wrong against Wales.

Owen Farrell had his worst game for England since the 2013 30-3 defeat against Wales. His decision making was poor and his kicking inept and inaccurate. Only a fool would have kept kicking high balls at Liam Williams given his aerial accuracy and England didn’t adjust, lost their cool and lost the match.

Perhaps one of the most disappointing aspects was the lack of impact from Manu Tuilagi. He really was only brought into the game in one attacking move where he successfully penetrated the gain line but other than that was never really in the game.

The England pack were well matched in the scrum by Wales and never really got the edge.  Tom Curry was the stand out forward on the field and his development continues to impress every match. Jones’ men seemed to lack any attacking potency at the Principality Stadium, and they were heavily reliant on their kicking game, which did not get them very far. 

Eddie Jones has selected an England team to play Italy on Saturday in their next Guinness Six Nations match showing five changes to the starting XV that played Wales a fortnight ago.

Joe Cokanasiga starts on the right wing for his fourth cap. The Bath wing made his international debut in the autumn, playing two Tests and scoring a try in each against Japan and Australia, while he featured off the bench against Wales in Round Three.

The 21-year-old winger is in from the start this weekend in place of the injured Jack Nowell in a powerful looking England side that also sees Ben Te’o recalled toe line up in the 2019 Championship for the first time at inside centre with Manu Tuilagi moving to outside centre.

Ellis Genge  starts at loosehead prop with Ben Moon shifting to the bench. Moon failed to gain the upper hand over Exeter team mate Tomas Francis in the last match, so his demotion is of no real surprise. 

Joe Launchbury is named in the second row following the injury of Courtney Lawes in Cardiff. Brad Shields  will start at blindside flanker with Mark Wilson named as a finisher.

Dan Cole and Nathan Hughes are both named as finishers having not been involved in England’s previous match against Wales. Henry Slade drops to the bench and there is no place for Maro Itoje who is still injured and unavailable for selection.

Defeat in Rome condemned the Azzurri to their 20th consecutive defeat in the tournament as Conor O’Shea searches for his first Six Nations victory. On the face of it, it may seem a continuation of losses, but the former Ireland international is attempting to make wholesale structural changes throughout Italian rugby, the fruits of which may not be seen at the top level under his watch. 

Italy have finished ahead of Ireland in the last two World Rugby U20 Championships and Leinster’s closest challengers in Conference B of the Pro 14 are the ever-improving Benetton. Italy come into the game at Twickenham on the back of 20 successive Six Nations, but their confidence is high following competitive February performances against Scotland, Wales and Ireland.

But for a missed kick in the game’s final action, they would have secured a losing bonus point in their last outing versus the Irish.

Ill-discipline has been a continual problem for the Azzurri. Italy, who conceded 14 penalties to Ireland's nine, were heavily penalised by referee Glen Jackson.   Italy might have justified complaints about the referee, but had they been a bit more disciplined, they would have won the game over Ireland. Italy were spirited and had they turned over Ireland for the first time since 2013, it would have been a fair result. But they still must look inward for the answers.

One area where they have found the right answer has been the line out.  Clearly Conor O’Shea’s side have been doing their homework because their success rate of 93.1% on their own ball is backed up by the fact that they have also claimed nine lineout steals and counting. The most in the Championship so far and a whopping 20% success rate on opposition ball.

Conor O’Shea makes three changes to his starting XV for the visit to Twickenham  and they all come in the pack

Captain Sergio Parisse returns from the head injury that ruled him out against Ireland and starts at No.8 winning his 137th cap. Parisse had missed the defeat with Ireland last time out through injury but is fit to reclaim his place at No.8, while Sebastian Negri is also recovered from illness to join him in the back row.

The only other change to the team is at hooker where Luca Bigi gets his first start of the Championship in place of Leonardo Ghiraldini, who drops to the bench having captained the team last time out.

Parisse and Negri’s returns mean that Jimmy Tuivaiti and Maxime Mbandà drop out of the side, as Braam Steyn switches from No.8 to openside, with Gloucester Rugby flanker Jake Polledri the only new face on the bench as he prepares for his first match of the Championship after he was declared fit after recovering from injury.

Two years ago, Conor O’Shea caused England plenty of problems with their no-ruck tactics at Twickenham, but it’s hard to see what rabbit he can pull out of the hat this time around to cause any English hearts to flutter faster.

England were hugely impressive in the opening two rounds and it’s easy to panic after the reversal in Cardiff, but they are going largely down the right path. Although it is highly unlikely there will be a complete revolution of the team in a fortnight, particularly as England had performed so well up until round three, there is room for obvious improvement and a big win against the Azzurri could be just the ticket.

Eddie Jones has persistently said that there is a lot more to come from his England team, and they are still very rough around the edges. Their performance against Wales was clear that there is a lot of work to do.

I really don’t see anything other than a massive statement of intent from England and a large hammering for the Italians. England can still win the Six nations title as they will be looking to add two more victories with bonus points from their remaining games which are both at HQ. England will win this with a bonus point is a very comfortable manner. 


England 50 Italy 10

Ireland v France

The final match will be on Sunday afternoon in Dublin where France will travel to face the Irish. Ireland made significant changes for the trip to Rome and the result was not as emphatic as many expected. It is easy to forget that Ireland claimed a bonus point win such was the error-strewn 80 minutes and downbeat reaction. 

But one bad games does not make a bad team. Wales were equally uninspiring in the Italian sunshine and for Ireland, in 12 visits to Italy - the first in 1995 immediately prior to professionalism - the average score line reads 31-17 in Ireland's favour. That is roughly Ireland outscoring the hosts four tries to two, which is what was achieved in Round 3.

Since the Azzurri joined the competition, the away day trips have more often than not been sticky affairs for the men in green. Sure, there have been some exceptions. The 2017 visit saw Ireland rack up 63 points, while 10 years previous, Ireland also put up more than a half century of points in the Italian capital.

A nervy Ireland managed to avoid a massive shock as they scraped past Italy to keep their slim Six Nations chances alive. Ireland need to claim bonus-point victories against France and Warren Gatland's grand slam chasers and hope other results go their way in order to retain their title.

On the evidence of that performance that must be considered a long shot.
Tries from Quinn Roux, Jacob Stockdale, Keith Earls and Conor Murray undid a spirited Italy. The champions' performance was riddled with mistakes as they conceded 15 turnovers and lost five lineouts, leaving Schmidt with more questions than answers from a game where he rested captain Rory Best and lock James Ryan.

Ireland were nervy in the opening stages and racked up four unforced errors before the eighth minute. It was never going to be a Roman holiday but the current Grand Slam champions, who reached such magnificent heights in last season's campaign and produced a near flawless performance against New Zealand just three months ago, look a shadow of that team today.

The swagger, the confidence, the belief, all clearly missing. They look like a team under pressure. The vaunted half-back pairing of Conor Murray and Johnny Sexton are making uncharacteristic errors and the rest of the team are following suit. 

As Rugby Raconteur goes to press the Irish team has not been named. There are however a number of changes expected to Joe Schmidt’s line up. Sean Cronin and  Robbie Henshaw are both already excluded from the training squad and it looks that the game will come too soon for Joey Carbery.

Hooker Cronin started his first Six Nations game against Italy in round three but failed to take his chance and Ulster's Rob Herring is included alongside captain Rory Best and Niall Scannell. Joe Schmidt has bene boosted by the news that several players are returning to fitness.

CJ Stander started the opening game of the Championship against England, but then missed wins over Scotland and Italy with a facial injury. He has rejoined the squad now though and could come into contention to face France.

In Carbury’s likely absence, Ross Byrne, the Leinster fly-half who made his Test debut away to Australia last summer, is another who comes into the squad. The 23-year-old is yet to make his Championship bow but could be the understudy to  Johnny Sexton this Sunday. 

Elsewhere Kieran Marmion is also back in, while Rob Herring is included as one of three hookers alongside skipper Rory Best and Munster’s Niall Scannell.
Ireland have bounced back from their opening day loss to England with back-to-back away wins in Scotland and Italy.

France will be encouraged by the ways their young players performed against Scotland. Whilst its clear, Les Bleus are certainly not the force they once were - they have inexplicably rolled over to have their bellies tickled by a number of teams in recent years - but that never seems to be the case against Ireland.

In fact, when it comes to this particular fixture; the French have been very consistent indeed. Since their heavy 2010 defeat in Paris, when Ireland’s hopes of a second successive grand slam were dashed, it has been an almost even contest.

In the 11 subsequent games, Ireland shade the head-to-head 5-4, with two draws highlighting the nature of the contests. The average winning margin in that time is less than five points.

The worry for Ireland will be that the seemingly rudderless France appear to be improving. Admittedly the only way was up after the abject abysmal display at Twickenham, but head coach Jacques Brunel, even by simply picking players in their more accustomed positions, has his side playing with a bit more conviction.
The TMO ruled out four possible tries in Paris, but they still blew Scotland away with ease.

Doubts will remain until they put away one of the big hitters, but in Dublin against an Irish side a little low on confidence, would be a step in the right direction.

Romain N’Tamack looks like a player who will spend a long career in the blue jersey, whatever number is on his back, while scrum-half Antoin Dupont could be a game changer for the French.

Veteran No.8 Louis Picamoles has also been a key part of their revival in fortunes. His 44 carries and six offloads in the three rounds are the most of any player this year so far while Yoann Huget’s six linebreaks make him an attacking force to be reckoned with.

So, it’s no surprise that France head coach Jacques Brunel has named an unchanged team to face Ireland, keeping faith in young half-backs Antoine Dupont and Romain Ntamack.

Continuity is the name of the game for Jacques Brunel.

Following defeats by Wales and England in the opening two rounds of this year’s Championship, Les Bleus sparkled in Paris last time out to beat Scotland 27-10 – maintaining a 20-year home winning streak against the Scots in the process.

Unsurprisingly, Brunel has kept faith with the same 23 players that served him so well in Round Three as they head to Dublin for a tough test against reigning Grand Slam winners Ireland.

That means the exciting young half-back pairing of Antoine Dupont and Romain Ntamack that galvanised the French backline at the Stade de France remains, as does 23-year-old full-back Thomas Ramos – who will also take on kicking duties.

Outside half Ntamack, 19, and 22-year-old scrumhalf Dupont put on a very exciting and promising performance in the victory against Scotland in the previous round, and the pair will be put to test again at the Aviva Stadium.

Cedate Gomes Sa and Sébastien Bézy had been called up to the wider squad in place of the injured Uini Atonio and Morgan Parra this week but neither has cracked the unchanged matchday group.

Guilhem Guirado skippers the side once more from hooker, with Jefferson Poirot and Demba Bamba either side of him in the front row as France look to improve a recent record that has seen them win just one of their last eight clashes with Ireland, home or away.

Félix Lambey and Sébastien Vahaamahina are the locks, while the in-form trio of Wenceslas Lauret, Arthur Iturria and Louis Picamoles will do battle with an impressive Irish back row.

Gaël Fickou and Mathieu Bastareaud renew their partnership in the centres, while Yoann Huget and Damian Penaud complete the back-three alongside Ramos.

With Ireland expected to rely on Jonathan Sexton and Conor Murray's kicking game to unsettle the French, the 23-year-old Thomas Ramos will again start at fullback.

Scrum half Morgan Parra, who along with flyhalf Camille Lopez had been omitted for the Scotland game after criticising the management, has been ruled out due to injury. Lopez does not feature in the team, either.

Ireland need to rely on their strengths and must not get drawn into an open game against France. France’s best chance of troubling Ireland in Sunday’s Six Nations clash in Dublin is to coax Joe Schmidt’s men into an open game.

Having perfected a successful style for the Grand Slam, series win in Australia and victory over New Zealand in 2018, there is a feeling that Ireland have been figured out and that they must introduce a new game plan.

That sense was driven by the opening day defeat to England the two subsequent wins over Scotland and Italy that failed to convince.

France can be dangerous on the ball; their open-field stuff is unstructured, so when Ireland kick they will definitely need to kick accurately. The revived French game looks to be largely based  on the game perfected in the Top 14 by Toulouse from counters and turnovers. Ireland will be very aware that is where the danger is.

I see a tight encounter and France will feel they have a real chance of an upset. Ireland have been underwhelming but with experienced players returning, I don’t see Joe Schmidt’s team losing again at home so an Ireland victory but not by much.

Ireland 23 France 20