Six Nations Week 4 – England at the brink…

Six Nations Week 4 – England at the brink…

After a week break, the 2017 Six Nations returns with the penultimate set of matches. Round 3 was an interesting set of contests with Scotland, Ireland and England victorious and Wales, France and Italy left contemplating what could have been. 

As we enter the home stretch, results in this round could crown England as champions with one week to go. Top of the pile on 13 points, England could be crowned champions as early as Saturday with victory over Scotland and a Welsh win over Ireland.

A win would take them to 17 points, with four tries pushing them to 18, and in that scenario, only the Irish could catch them depending on their result in Cardiff. While Ireland's title hopes wouldn't necessarily be over with defeat in Wales, they would need a Scottish win at Twickenham to stay in with a shout.

Having already dropped one game though, away to Scotland in Round One, they cannot really afford a second loss, and at least they have the comfort of having their fate in their own hands.

For Wales and France, it’s all about getting back to the winning habit with the two teams due to line up for their final games against each other in Paris next weekend.

So three more exciting encounters this weekend – let’s assess who are the likely winners and losers:

WALES v IRELAND

There was a great quote this week from Billy Keene in the Irish Independent that “Rugby makes Wales Welsh”. Being Welsh, I can identify with that sentiment and Wales against Ireland always has a much different attitude and sentiment from Wales against England or any other of the Six Nations opponents. With a large Welsh population being from Irish descent – there has always been a close emotional bond between the two sets of supporters although that bonhomie has not always been shared between the players.

Keith Wood’s negative comments during the South African Lions tour about Welsh props has always grated with many Welsh players whilst many Irish hold Wales responsible for Warren Gatland’s decision not to pick Brian O’Driscoll in the final Lions test in Australia. Forty years ago - the first Five Nations sending offs occurred in 1977 in the game between the Celtic nations with Geoff Wheel and Willie Duggan both receiving their marching orders in an ugly encounter in Cardiff.

For this encounter, both Wales and Ireland have named unchanged starting line ups – which makes the summary this week somewhat less focused on who is playing and more focused on the logic behind those selection decisions.  Let’s start with Wales.

Robert Howley’s second spell as Interim Head Coach is rapidly turning into a disaster. Wales’ dismal second half at Murrayfield following on from the poor first half in Rome added to the murmuring of discontent and unhappiness in the Principality.  The head in the sand mentality shown by Howley is frankly astounding and one has to seriously question his state of mind if he feels this Welsh team is performing at any acceptable standard. The hope and optimism of a squad with seven uncapped players has all but disappeared as the conservatism and lack of imagination shown by the Welsh coaches frankly beggars’ belief.

Wales had an opportunity to blow Scotland away at Murrayfield with a strong first half showing but were lacking ideas in the second half and failed to dominate a weakened Scottish set piece.  More concerning was the lack of leadership and judgement on the field. Alun Wyn Jones’s chance of leading the Lions was not helped by his indecision to klick the points at a critical point of the match showed poor leadership and in my eyes he is no leader. But criticising Jones is one thing, Wales had multiple experienced internationals including former captain Sam Warburton and 89 times capped Jamie Roberts on the field in the 2nd half and there was no visible leadership or creativity shown by anyone. When things go wrong, you have to pull your team together and stand as one. Wales really didn’t do that and whilst the coaching shows not variation or Plan B, the players also need to look at themselves in the mirror and many won’t like what they see looking back at them.

Wales cannot afford to lose either of their remaining matches or risk dropping out of the World’s top 8 team ranking and risk once again having to face another “Group of Death” in the 2019 World Cup in Japan.  That pressure must be enormous on Howley’s narrow shoulders and perhaps explains his unwillingness to tinker with his match day squad.

There were however some easy decisions that could have been made even if sticking with the same squad and its very surprising that he hasn’t at least made some positional re-alignment. Leigh Halfpenny’s game has been blunted at Toulon and a simple swap between him and Liam Williams could give Wales a much sharper attacking edge from the back three.

George North made Alex Cuthbert look like world class with his inept defensive display and the predictability of Dan Biggar does little to inspire confidence that Wales have any ideas of how to change their game from one dimensional “warrenball”.

In the forwards, Tomos Francis and Rob Evans are lucky to retain their places in the starting XV after their total failure to dominate the Scottish front row whilst Jake Ball and Ross Moriarty both failed to assert themselves after strong showings against England. Taulupe Falatau and Luke Charteris are both surprising omissions but both offer Wales opportunities to add firepower later during the encounter. Justin Tipuric has a great record against Ireland and he and Sam Warburton will have to make up for their lack of ball carrying power by making a real nuisance of themselves around the breakdown.

For Ireland, they eventually comfortably beat France in Dublin and feel very confident that their championship bid is still live and a win in Cardiff will set everything up for a final day showdown against England. Ireland head coach Joe Schmidt has named an unchanged team for Friday night's Six Nations clash with Wales, with Tommy Bowe replacing the injured Andrew Trimble on the replacements bench. It is the first-time Ireland have named an unchanged team since 2014.

Many were expecting Jerrod Payne to get a possible recall at centre as he was on the scoresheet for Ulster last week in his first start since a kidney injury sustained in the Autumn internationals.  In the end, the only change in personnel sees his provincial team-mate Andrew Trimble missing out with a hand injury and is replaced by Tommy Bowe who was introduced as a second-half substitute against Scotland, but failed to make the match-day squads against Italy and France.

Rob Kearney was the only injury concern for Schmidt this week, but he has overcome his groin injury and has trained fully all week. The Leinster man at full-back to win his 76th cap for Ireland.

Payne’s omission from the match day squad means the Garry Ringrose and Robbie Henshaw will continue their budding midfield partnership, with Munster pair Keith Earls and Simon Zebo selected on the wings.

Johnny Sexton and Conor Murray again are selected at half-back, while Peter O’Mahony is unable to force his way into a competitive back row with CJ Stander, Sean O’Brien and Jamie Heaslip picked at the back of the scrum.

Up front, Jack McGrath is again preferred to Cian Healy, joined by captain Rory Best and Tadhg Furlong, with Donnacha Ryan and Devin Toner getting the nod as the starting locks, with Iain Henderson providing cover on the bench.
Wales are very hard to predict and it’s really not clear which Wales team will turn up. The Welsh team which out-played England for 75 minutes or the direction-less blunted attack that featured against Italy and Scotland. 

One other factor in the match this Friday will be the Referee. Wayne Barnes has once again been selected to officiate this contest between the Celtic giants. He has been controversial in his decisions in the past encounters between these teams and Ireland always feel that his style does not suit their game. Barnes has overseen 13 Ireland matches and the Irish have won only four games – their losing record under his watch - 69% is significantly higher than any other referee. 

Ireland have a good record in Cardiff but Kearney lacks pace and match fitness and Tommy Bowe’s inability to tackle must be a worry if Wales manage to gain any attacking edge. I do feel Ireland just need to watch the video of Wales’ last game and plan accordingly because we all know the tactics will not change. The same team with no plan B.

Ireland have been really lucky with injuries this season. The Welsh confidence is brittle, and if Ireland can put them on the back foot and don't allow them to get into the game – then it could be Ireland by a 10-15 point margin. I expect Jonny Sexton to play the corners and pin Wales back. The Irish kicking game was excellent against France, Conor Murray's box kicks included. Their front row will seek to dominate the Welsh and their ball carriers will wear down the Welsh defence. In Justin Tipuric, Wales possess perhaps the most natural seven in the competition, and Warburton has been in superlative form so far, but I believe the Irish back row trio can be the launch pad to any possible success in Cardiff. There is little doubt Ireland will play to that strength and the game will be won in the back row and breakdown. 

The speed of how the ball is produced by the forwards will be key for both teams. They will need to rely on their front five to do the job and the half backs to control the game. Whomever does that earliest will be the likely winner and Ireland certainly seem to have the edge in the pack I find it very hard to see Wales dominating the Irish team and I really can’t be that optimistic and see anything other than a victory for the men in Green.

Ireland by a canter.

Wales 16 Ireland 26

ITALY v FRANCE

Bravo to Conor O’Shea and Brendan Venter for their brave use of tactics against England who massively unsettled England as Italy gave a strong account of themselves at Twickenham. Italy clearly rattled England in their last match with frustrating tactics before eventually fading and losing 36-15 at Twickenham, which was a marked improvement on heavy home defeats to Wales and Ireland at the start of the Championship. 

If you want to be an expert down the pub on the laws and the Italian approach then Murray Kinsela has done an excellent analysis for the armchair supporter here: http://www.the42.ie/italy-tackle-only-england-france-ireland-owens-3261610-Feb2017/

Given the circumstances of their first two matches, one cannot expect Italy just to roll over and this game plan to not contest the rucks whilst not attractive to watch, it is within the laws and is a valid approach. Referee Roman Poite had an excellent game in my view and his comments to the bewildered English players was spot on.

The Azzurri can be pleased with the way they competed at Twickenham and will return home to Rome hopeful of again beating Les Bleus. Conor O'Shea has made three changes to his Italy team with Leonardo Ghiraldini, Angelo Esposito and Carlo Canna coming back into the starting line-up. Ghiraldini had been due to start the game in England but had to pull out at the last minute with a foot injury. He was replaced on the day by Ornel Gega but has been passed fit and returns to the starting line-up.

Tommaso D'Apice came onto the bench in that game and keeps his spot among the replacements. One of the other changes sees Canna replace the injured Tommaso Allan at fly-half. The Zebre playmaker started the first two games of the Championship before dropping to the bench against England. With Allan was ruled out of the remainder of the Championship, Canna has been recalled and will link up once again with Edoardo Gori in the half-backs.

The final change sees Angelo Esposito come back in for Giulio Bisegni on the wing, having previously started in the defeat to Ireland.

Elsewhere O'Shea has picked Andrea Lovotti and Lorenzo Cittadini to pack down alongside Ghiraldini, while Marco Fuser and Dries van Schalkwyk start in the second row.

After impressing against the English, O'Shea has stuck with the back row of Abraham Steyn, Simone Favaro and skipper Sergio Parisse. There are three further changes on the bench, with Dario Chistolini, Sami Panico and the uncapped Luca Sperandio all included.

Treviso full-back Sperandio will provide cover for the back three, with Padovani likely to offer fly-half cover in case of an injury to Canna.

For France, the result against Ireland must be a massive disappointment to Guy Noves. France started very strongly but faded badly and didn't really threaten to beat Ireland. 

Despite not winning, France continued their slow progress back to being a decent competitive side. Louis Picamoles was the stand out French forward again and given their lack of penetration in attack against Ireland, it’s no real surprise to see Noves make a number of changes to his match day squad.
France will hand out two international debuts for Saturday’s lunchtime Six Nations meeting away to Italy. Noves' options for the back row are limited where Damien Chouly, Loann Goujon and Charles Ollivon are all out injured.

That means 22-year-old Brive flanker Fabien Sanconnie will make a full Test debut on the blindside flank, as one of four changes to the starting line-up.
Talented young Castres scrum-half Antoine Dupont is the second uncapped name in the 23. The 20-year-old prospect takes a place among the replacements alongside the returning Francois Trinh-Duc. 

The return of Trinh-Duc is a significant boost to Guy Noves and he has recovered from a broken forearm. The Toulon fly-half played 80 minutes last weekend and did enough to earn a recall to the national team. In Dublin, France didn't have a specialist fly-half on the bench so the return of Trinh-Duc will be a welcome boost for Guy Noves as it is no secret that he hugely admires the player and when fully fit, he is very likely to return as the first choice opening starter in the Number 10 jersey. 

Noves’ other changes come in the second row, with Julien LeDevedec joining Yoann Maestri, and in the back three where Racing-92 full back  Brice Dulin is the surprise recall with Fijian-born winger Virimi Vakatawa  also recalled from a knee ligament injury to recreate a back three line up with Noa Nakaitaci. 

Dulin makes his debut in this year's Championship as he will pull on the French jersey for the first time since playing against New Zealand in November. I find the selection of Dulin in place of the excellent Scott Spedding, very surprising given Spedding’s excellent performances in the three games this championship.  
Spedding is dropped completely from the match day squad whilst Yohan Huget is dropped to the bench joining Paul Jedrasiak, Bernard Le Roux, Uini Atonio, Eddy Ben Arous and Christopher Tolofua. 

France captain – the excellent Guilhem Guirado, will win his 50th cap in Rome and forms an unchanged front row with Rabah Slimani and Cyril Baille.
Unless O’Shea and Venter have more rabbits in the hat, it’s hard to see Italy using the same tactics of not contesting the ruck against France. They lack penetration and their set piece will not be as dominant against a strong scrummaging French pack.

I really don’t see Italy beating a French team that is more disciplined than in the past and that is playing at a decent standard. France will offer a lot of ball carrying power with Picamoles Kevin Gourdon whilst Fickou and Lamerat should have too much power in the centres. I believe Italy’s suspect fitness will not cope with the physical demands of playing France and if the French threequarters can blunt Campagnaro, then Italy could be in for another serious hiding. 

I only see one Blue team winning and it’s not the Azzurri! France by at least 20 points and a possible bonus point.

Italy 14 France 34

ENGLAND v SCOTLAND

Final match of the weekend sees the 124th Calcutta Cup game between the “auld enemies” at Twickenham with the tea time kick off at 4:00pm. England have held the cup for the past 8 years and Scotland have an absolutely dreadful record at Twickenham failing on their last 16 visits to the English capital but will travel with huge confidence and belief after their outstanding 2nd half showing against Wales.  

England really struggled to cope with Italy’s spoiling tactics in the last round but did come away with the victory and the precious bonus point. They continued to show their ability to win matches even when playing badly. This cutting edge is critical to maintain and Eddie Jones will want early scores to put pressure on the Scots.

Talking of Eddie Jones – I think he is an outstanding coach but his rant against Italy’s tactics showed poor judgement and really was a disappointment. Italy’s tactics were hardly new and have been seen in Super Rugby and have even been adopted by England in International Sevens. England looked ill prepared and lacked creativity. They do however have the best bench in the Six Nations and as the match went on and the substitutes were introduced, England got stronger not weaker; and stepped up a gear to finally put Italy to the Sword.

Given the impetus that those changes made to the last England performance, it is no real surprise that Jones has made three changes to the back division with Jonathan Joseph, Jack Nowell and Ben Youngs all receiving recalls.

Jonny May is dropped completely from the match day 23, with Jack Nowell selected to start on the wing and Anthony Watson in line for his first RBS 6 Nations appearance of the year from the bench.

The biggest boost to Jones is the return of the talismanic bulldozer Billy Vunipola, who like Watson, has returned from injury and will take his place amongst the replacements. England have badly missed the power of Vunipola and his replacement Nathan Hughes has really struggled to assert himself. 

The dangerous Ben T’eo returns to the bench. Leicester bound Fly-half George Ford alongside the recalled Youngs, with Owen Farrell staying at inside centre with Joseph outside him, while Mike Brown and Elliot Daly remain at full-back and wing respectively alongside Nowell.

In the pack, Joe Marler will win his 50th cap for England and will lead the team out on Saturday forming a familiar front row with Captain Dylan Hartley and Dan Cole. 

Joe Launchbury and Courtney Lawes continue their excellent partnership in the engine room whilst James Haskell retains his place in the back row with Maro Itoje and Nathan Hughes. 

Scotland have surprised everyone with their performances this championship with their two wins over Ireland and Wales giving your correspondent his two incorrect predictions. I have to say that replacing coach Vern Cotter is looking like a poor decision as the competition progresses and the Kiwi coach has to be applauded for his selections and game plans.

After their excellent performance against Wales, head coach Vern Cotter has made just one forced change to his Scotland team with Edinburgh flanker Hamish Watson coming into Scotland's starting XV for Saturday's Calcutta Cup match replacing injured club-mate John Hardie, while there is one surprise with the uncapped Cornell du Preez coming on to the bench.

The South-African born Edinburgh player is eligible for Scotland after fulfilling the three-year residency requirement. He can play at No 8 or flanker. 
Tim Visser continues on the wing seeing off the challenge of the fit again Sean Maitland whilst Alex  Dunbar and Huw Jones once again form the centre partnership.

Ali Price continues to partner Finn Russell at half back.

In the forwards, Gordon Reid and Zander Fagerson continue their front row partnership with Fraser Brown and will face a difficult challenge in the set piece against the fearsome English trio.

The Gray brothers remain as the engine room pair of choice and John Barclay and Ryan Wilson join Watson in the back row. 

I feel England will not be as passive as the Welsh front row against the inexperienced Scottish line up. The set piece should favour England and if Scotland concede a lot of early penalties then it could be an uphill task. Finn Russell was named “man of the match” against Wales for his second half performance. His first half was quite frankly dire and if he kicks with the same accuracy at HQ then Scotland will be in trouble as the English driving line our and maul is very difficult to defend against. 

I am a big fan of Jack Nowell and if he get the ball in hand at speed then he will prove very dangerous although Visser and Seymour have both shown very good defensive and attacking skills and Stuart Hogg has the measure of Mike Brown in recent form.

The battle between Russell and Ford is probably the most intriguing as both players push for Lions selection this summer. 

I think Scotland will have their movements and will need to get much quicker ball from the breakdown. The ball against Wales was painfully slow and England will offer more attacking creativity and defensive rigidity which will stifle Scotland’s counter attacking flair if they have slow ball.

England have certainly not fired on all cylinders during this campaign and were second best for most of the match in Cardiff. That was however in the cauldron that is the Principality stadium and this match is at Fortress Twickenham. Likewise, Scotland have not shown any consistency away from Murrayfield and with the English chasing their 18th straight victory, it’s very hard to not see another home victory.  England have yet to fire and even though Vern Cotter’s team have been over-achieving – I cannot see anything other than an England victory.

England 23 Scotland 19