SIX NATIONS ROUND 3 - LASTING THE PACE

Halfway point in the 2015 Six Nations and its been an interesting ride. One or two things coming to the forefront. Player concussion is starting to become a real issue – Mike Brown following George North and Samson Lee in missing matches due to a longer than expected recovery time. The second controversy is around the choke tackle – something Ireland have seriously perfected as a key part of their game. Shaun Edwards taking a particular stand against it and asking for a ban on it in his press conference this week.

It’s an emotive point and I have to agree that it’s not adding anything to attacking rugby. There are clearly some issues in refereeing interpretations, which certainly need reviewing and I would suggest some minor law tinkering will likely happen before the Autumn World Cup.

Round two’s results were pretty much as expected. One of the clear observations from this year’s competition is the gap between the teams is extremely narrow. On any given day – anyone could beat anyone; with even Italy showing some great resolve against England. This makes the work of the rugby pundit harder than ever and Round three sees some exciting match-ups, which are very close and difficult to call.  

SCOTLAND v ITALY

Mt predication that Scotland would be a much stronger proposition this season has come to fruition with the Highlanders scoring the only try in Paris and losing by 5 points to Wales. However, it’s played two and lost two and this weekend’s encounter against the Azzurri is a “must win” for coach Vern Cotter.

Scotland impressed in many areas against Wales and must be frustrated with not getting a win behind them. They attacked for long periods against Wales and but ill discipline and a bad dose of “white line fever” meant they once again flattered to deceive.

Finn Russell was lucky to escape a red card in the match but didn’t escape the citing committee. Russell this week lost his appeal against a two-match ban for a dangerous tackle on Wales' Dan Biggar - leaving Dark Blues head coach Vern Cotter with a dilemma over his replacement. Scotland will also be without the talismanic Richie Gray.

Glasgow's Peter Horne has been given the nod to replace suspended stand-off Finn Russell for Scotland's RBS 6 Nations clash with Italy on Saturday. 

The Kiwi had to decide between the inform duo of Horne and Edinburgh's Greig Tonks, but it is the Warriors fly-half who has been told he will collect his seventh cap when the Azzurri visit Murrayfield.

Horne's inclusion is one of four changes to the side beaten 26-23 by Wales two weeks ago. Glasgow's Tommy Seymour takes Tim Visser's place on the wing while Scotstoun teammate Tim Swinson comes in for injured lock Richie Gray.

Prop Euan Murray, who missed the Wales clash for religious reasons, reclaims his place as Geoff Cross drops out, while Tonks is left to take consolation from being named amongst the substitutes.

Scotland will hope to bounce back from successive defeats to France and then Warren Gatland's men as they host the Italians in Edinburgh - a match already looking like the Wooden Spoon decider.

Cotter has also made four changes to the replacements, with props Ryan Grant and Cross replacing Gordon Reid (knee) and Jon Welsh (hand), who were injured against Wales.

Promising young Edinburgh duo Ben Toolis and Hamish Watson are poised to make their senior international debuts having taken the places of injured lock Jim Hamilton (groin) and back-row Alasdair Strokosch on the bench.

Replacement scrum-half Sam Hidalgo-Clyne has also completed his return to play protocols to retain his place in the squad, having shown signs of delayed concussion after the match against Wales.

For Italy, it was a much stronger showing against England. Remarkably, the Italians have scored a try on every visit tom Twickenham – a remarkable achievement for the perennial under-achievers.  Dog lover Martin Castrogiovani will comically be absent form the clash – the result of fourteen stitches in a facial dog bite. 

Sergio Parisse was back to his brilliant best against England and once again looks the form No.8 in the Northern Hemisphere. The Azzurri have won seven and lost 15 of their 22 meetings with Scotland, their last triumph against the Scots was in Rome three years ago. Italy has won just once at Murrayfield, a 37-17 triumph in 2007.

Italy coach Jacques Brunel has included two uncapped players as part of six changes to his starting XV to face Scotland in Saturday's match at Murrayfield.

Benetton Treviso centre Enrico Bacchin and Zebre winger Michele Visentin will earn their first caps. Bacchin is to step in for Andrea Masi, who is injured. Zebre's Dario Chistolini will replace Martin Castrogiovanni.

Zebre prop Matias Aguero will replace Alberto De Marchi, who drops to the bench. Aguero also started in the Azzurri's opening defeat to Ireland in Rome.

Joshua Furno is to come on in place of veteran lock Marco Bortolami, who is side-lined with a muscular injury while Benetton Treviso flanker Simone Favaro returns to play for the Azzurri for the first time since the Autumn test against Argentina in November.
Favaro takes over from veteran Mauro Bergamasco, who has been dropped.

Its hard to see history repeating itself in Edinburgh and one has to feel Scotland with home advantage will have just enough to make it home to victory. Euan Murray will be a welcome return at prop, as Italy will seek to test highland resolve in the set piece. Alex Dunbar has been a silent revelation at centre and Seymour offers more penetration from wing than the more one-dimensional Visser. 

The game’s outcome will again dependent on who gets the first try and who converts the most penalties. Italy will have watched Wales win the aerial battle against the Scots and expect full back Luke McLean and Outside Half Haimona to be peppering Scotland with high balls and hoping for a Scottish error.

I expect the Scottish scrum to be under pressure and a lot will depend on just how Peter Horne handles the pressure. I think Scotland have enough quality to grind out the win but don’t expect it to be pretty to watch. Closer than expected.

Scotland 26 Italy 19

FRANCE v WALES

Wales have won the last three Six Nations encounters between the countries and prevented France from scoring a try each time.  This meeting in Paris will be an interesting one with neither team firing on all cylinders so far this campaign.

As predicted, France ran Ireland fairly close and indeed could have almost got the draw in Dublin. The French however, do not seem to know what is their best team and they appeared to settle for running Ireland close rather than winning the game. Philippe Saint Andre clearly doesn’t seem to know what he is doing and the lack of ambition against Ireland was a truly bizarre approach to game management in my view.

Both France and Wales are struggling for consistency and results. Since the 2011 World Cup, France have posted a win ratio of just 40% whilst Wales have 50% during the same period. The French ratio is an extremely low return for a country, which has 14 top-flight teams to pick from, and an abundance of talent at their coach’s disposal.

They certainly looked like a better side once they made use of their bench in the second half. Rory Kockott was disappointing in Dublin. His distribution was slow and he never looked like controlling the game. He is out of the squad with a thigh injury, as well as wing Teddy Thomas, out with an ankle problem after two below-par performances, along with second row Pascal Papé who will miss the rest of this year's Six Nations serving a ten week ban for kneeing Ireland's Jamie Heaslip in a ruck last Saturday. 

Camille Lopez is still really finding his feet and France looked a much stronger proposition with Morgan Parra directing affairs from the scrums and breakdowns. Parra is another injury doubt and Saint Andre has called up Toulon scrum half Sebastien Tillous-Borde to boost France in their stuttering RBS 6 Nations campaign. The Toulon player is back from a knee injury after missing Les Bleus's first two outings and he paired up with fly-half Camille Lopez for last November's three test matches and the association proved solid throughout.

Wesley Fofana still looks horribly lost at centre and the spirit of the great French masters of the midfield such as the sublime Phillipe Sella must be cringing at the tactic of bulk and bash from Mathieu Basteraud. 

In the pack, France dealt a scrumming lesson to Ireland again with Mike Ross certainly relieved to not be facing that again this season. Certainly Dubaty, Keyser, and Atonio added an extra dimension to France’s forward power and if they started the match maybe France would have seen a different result? Hard to call. Rumours of poor fitness abound.

One of the more interesting things to watch for this weekend will be the blitz defence battle. Both France and Wales are masters of this art form and France in particular caused Ireland all sorts of issues withy their speed off the line. 

At least Saint Andre has rung the changes for the visit of Wales with Basteraud dropping to the bench replaced by Remi Lamerat as one of five changes following the defeat in Dublin. Three other switches behind the scrum see starts for full-back Brice Dulin ahead of the stuttering Scott Spedding, wing Sofiane Guitoune for Teddy Thomas; and scrum-half Morgan Parra, for Rory Kockott.

The only change up-front is an enforced one, with Toulon lock Romain Taofifenua deputising for Pascal Papé

Wales returned to winning ways against Scotland in a tightly fought match. For me, Wales never looked like losing the game and seemed to always be able to step up a gear when required. Their ruthless game of putting Scotland to the sword during Finn Russell’s time in the sin bin perhaps the turning point of the match. Added to that their control of their kicking game – so different and controlled after the debacle against England – Wales were able to find the attacking edge and close out the win.

Coach Warren Gatland makes four changes to the team for France. George North returns to the starting line up with Liam Williams being retained in place of the stuttering Alex Cuthbert. Cuthbert has looked out of sorts and ideas all season whilst Williams was like a breath of fresh air and certainly gave Wales a more cutting edge.

Elsewhere – there are three changes in the forwards. In the front row, Gethin Jenkins retains his place after a much stronger showing against Scotland and is joined at prop by the returning Samson Lee while Scott Baldwin gets the nod at hooker in place of Richard Hibbard. Hibbard has only himself to blame, as he has been poor in both matches so far. His line out throwing has been suspect and Baldwin rightly gets the start. 

Jake Ball hasn’t impressed so far and Luke Charteris gets the 2nd row slot alongside Alun Wyn-Jones with no changes in the back row. Charteris who now ploughs his trade at Racing Metro in Paris; made an impressive cameo against Scotland and deserves the start. His ability to win line our ball and potentially disrupt the French line out give him a clear edge.

Many Welsh fans have been calling for Justin Tipuric to start ahead of Lydiate but I think Gatland has the selection right with the chop tacking specialist more likely to cause issues in the first 60 minutes than fellow Osprey Tipuric who remains a likely change off the bench. 

I can only see a tight game with strong defences, lots of penalties for both teams and only a single try. The Welsh scrum has been under severe pressure from the two games so far and that will only get worse in Paris. Any Welsh hopes must come form a solid line out platform and strong defence. Behind the pack, Wales do I believe; have the much stronger and more confident back line but will they stick to the usual “cementball” tactics or try and vary it with the flair we know the players have in abundance? The smart money is on more of the same from Wales and France will likely be up to the task of defending that in numbers. Whoever scores the try will win. 

Halfpenny has been up to his usual metronomic accuracy with the boot and Wales may shade it if France concedes too many penalties. This is almost becoming a “must win” for France and I think they will prove too strong for Wales on this occasion.

France 20 Wales 18

IRELAND V ENGLAND

The match of the round has an afternoon all to itself on Sunday in Dublin. This is probably the match which will decide the 2015 championship and Ireland will be desperate to avoid another home defeat to the Rose. The last big Dublin encounter in 2013 was a dour affair with England triumphing 12-6 with just four penalty goals. The game in 2015 will also be close and it is England who one feels have the greater pressure. 

Ireland will rightly be starting as favourites to record another home win. They have not been convincing in either of their matches so far. A hard worked grind in Rome was followed by a home win with no tries against the French. 

At the time of writing, the full Irish line up has not been revealed but I do not expect coach Joe Schmidt to make many changes. He is almost certain to stick with the tried and trusted team line up for tis crucial clash. 

His squad has come through wins over Italy and France in the opening two rounds largely unscathed and that allows Schmidt the luxury of being able to pick his side consistently.

The one major absentee is of course Jamie Heaslip, who broke three vertebrae against France, and is ruled out of action until the Wales game in round four at the earliest. Jordi Murphy will step into the breach and he is more than capable of causing England some serious problems.

The front row promises an intriguing battle. Joe Marler has been one of the most improved players at loose head and he will have watched Mike Ross seriously struggle against France.

Behind the scrum, Ireland has the sublime Sexton against George Ford. Advantage Ireland. The threequarters are well matched with Jonathan Joseph looking like the form centre and a real surprise in the tournament. The loss of Mike Brown to (yet) another concussion is a big blow to England although he hasn’t shown the form of last season. 

Stuart Lancaster will have been concerned by his team’s failure to really kick on from their win over Wales. They labored against Italy. Despite never being in doubt of winning, they never really raised their game to the meet the expectations of the fans and media and the end result was basically “job done” rather than a leap forward in progress towards the World cup.

Lancaster makes just two changes to the team, which started against Italy. Andy Goode comes in at Full back for Mike Brown, and Exeter’s Jack Nowell comes in on the wing for Gloucester’s Jonny May. Nowell was widely tipped for a return after some string performances recently for Exeter. Goode is a solid choice but I would have been more inclined to move Watson to Full back and bring in another winger. 

The only other change is Bath's Henry Thomas comes in for Kieran Brookes on the bench who has failed to recover form a hip injury.  

The pack stays as is then with Dylan Hartley getting the nod over Tom Youngs while Tom Croft, Mako Vunipola, and the evergreen Nick Easter add grunt off the bench as required.


The forward battle will be critical to success and I think both teams will try and tough it out but also try and play running rugby. 

Psychologically England has the edge with recent wins but Ireland will feel they have to lay down a marker here and they need a big performance this campaign.

I think England are going to get caught out by the best out half in Europe. Sexton will attempt to pin England in their 22 and force them into errors. However England do pose a significant threat and I see several tries in the match but I think the Irish will out battle them to win by at least five points.


Ireland 23 England 17

Six Nations 2015 Round 2 – Steady as we go boys…

What a great first round last weekend. Your correspondent off to a less than stellar start with the very first match. England completely dominated and bossed a poor Welsh side although in my defence, I did call a close game and had the five points spread correct. 

In the other matches, Ireland predictably won in Rome but didn’t set the world on fire with an error strewn performance while France kept the scoreboard ticking over and shut out the Bravehearts despite not scoring a try.

Round 2 sees three more interesting encounters and as I write this blog from 5,351 miles from London – I can’t wait for the battles to recommence.

ENGLAND v ITALY

England came of age last week with a largely second-string side winning comfortably in Cardiff over an overblown, overconfident Wales. England really did dominate the second half and had total control over the scrum and mauls. The front row battle wasn’t close and England comprehensively out played Wales in the pack. Dave Attwood was a giant in the second row while James Haskell was the clear MVP and how they gave it to George Ford ahead of him was a travesty.

The English defence was unbreakable and to come back from 10-0 down in the first 9 minutes and win showed impressive steel and resolve.  Its not often that I eat large slices of humble pie but having been underwhelmed with their selection; Anthony Watson ad Jonathan Joseph both had outstanding games and showed real potential. Hats off to Mike Ford and his coaching team at Bath, they are building something special with the talent at their disposal.

While I have nothing but admiration for England’s win and the way they won it, lets not get too carried away they are still some way off being World Cup winners but demonstrating the positive momentum to get there. England supporters need to be realistic and have patience because even with the missing players there is still some way to develop and improve.  Despite their dominance, Wales still could have won the match with a late try. George Ford had two charge down kicks and wasn’t always calm and collected. You do that against the Saffers or All Chokes and it will be goodnight Vienna son.  Scrum half still doesn’t look to settled and there will be some tough decisions to make regarding back line selection.

So lets move on to this week’s match. Two years ago England had 50 minutes of dominance before an awkward last 30 minutes when Italy almost did the impossible and came close to a win at HQ. The team will be euphoric after last weeks game and its important that they do not go into this match over confident because Italy on their day can cause England some real issues in the pack. A strong scrummage and aggressive turnover game could cause England some issues if they are not 100% on their game.

Stuart Lancaster rightly names an unchanged team and in the winter sunshine at Twickenham they have the opportunity to start to build a dynasty on the road to the title.

For the Italians, it’s a different mood. They were disappointing against the Irish offering little in attack but resolute in defence. It was only their impressive defence, which stopped the game becoming a rout. The sin binning of hooker Leonardo Ghiraldini opened the floodgates and it hook Ireland 65 minutes to get the first try.

For the game at Twickenham, under pressure Coach Jacques Brunel makes four changes to his starting line up. Zebre captain Marco Bortolami has recovered from a muscular injury that saw him miss the 26-3 defeat in Rome and will start at prop to earn his 111th cap for Italy. Club teammate Mauro Bergamasco, also absent against the Irish, will earn his 101st cap this weekend when he starts as flanker, replacing the injured Alessandro Zanni.

In the backs, Giovanbattista Venditti will play left wing, prompting a back-line reshuffle. Luke McLean switches to his bets position at fullback, moving Andrea Masi to inside centre, and Luca Moriso to outside centre in place of the injured Michele Campagnaro.

Italy must start as enormous underdogs and it’s hard to see much success. The first 20 minutes will be critical for them. An early English score and a rout will ensue. Keep it tight and will the English have the heart? As Will Greenwood once said in a legendary summary “the fizzy lager on wet Wednesday night – have they avoided it?”.

I don’t see England making the same errors as 2013. England to dominate and an exciting attacking game form the Rose.

ENGLAND 43 ITALY 6

IRELAND v FRANCE

Ireland predictably won in Rome but it wasn’t the greatest show on display. The late withdrawal of Sean O’Brien may have caused a few last minute game plan changes but Ireland toiled for the first half and it was only when the man advantage came through that they stepped up to play with anything like their full potential.

Ireland used the kicking game to play in the right parts of the pitch so as not to give away easy points - thereby denying Italy energy.

When in the Italian half, Ireland held ball through multiple phases to make Italian players make as many as tackles as possible - finally Italy didn't have the energy to keep making those tackles and their defensive shape broke.

For Ireland and for Joe Schmidt it will be seen as a job well done and he will now just get everyone into camp and ready for the challenge of France. There are three key changes to the team for France. Jonny Sexton returns at outside half. Sexton has missed the last 12 weeks of action for his club having suffered four concussions in 2014, but slots straight back into the starting XV.

The return of open side flanker Sean O’Brien and No 8 Jamie Heaslip join him. O’Brien has recovered from a tweaked hamstring and Heaslip has shrugged off a shoulder problem.

For France, the win against Scotland had its moments. Camille Lopez was solid at outside half and crucially made his kicks. The two South African born players – Scott Spedding and Rory Kockott were both impressive and winger Teddy Thomas showed flashes of brilliance. The French would be happy to get the win, but that attitudes towards the game and the performance in France were far from positive.

Fofana had probably his worst game in a French shirt, and the whole French team looks far from settled. They seem to be picking on bulk and strength rather than coaching – it remains to be seen how they will manage against the superior fitness and speed of the Irish team.

France coach Philippe Saint-André has made one change to the starting XV that started against Scotland. Prop Eddy Ben Arous comes into the front row in place of the injured Alexandre Menini, while the experienced Vincent Debaty taking a place on the bench.

Ireland will win fairly comfortably. France looks like they would be happy to keep the score down and have a narrow defeat. That is a terrible way to start a game but unless they step up a number of gears – I don’t see they threatening Ireland too much.

Irish eyes will be smiling. A home win, continued momentum and an 11-point spread,

IRELAND 28 FRANCE 17

SCOTLAND v WALES

So to the weekend’s final game – Sunday’s showdown in Edinburgh.  There is a strong mood of optimism north of the border as Greig Laidlaw and his side will seek to avenge last year’s nightmare in Cardiff when a brief rush of blood led to Stuart Hogg’s red card and the game was over as a competition. 

Scotland can take heart form their performance in Paris last weekend. The fundamentals were strong and they scored the game’s only try. There were flashes of brilliance from Finn Russell and strong performances in the pack with Alasdair Strokosch making and excellent cameo off the bench.

Alex Dunbar, Tim Visser and Stuart Hogg all impressed in backs and will be dangerous again if Wales don’t step up and return to some sort of form for this weekend’s encounter.

The mood is positive in Vern Cotter’s camp and why not? Wales were lamentable against England and if Scotland are going to anything in this year’s tournament then it ahs to start this Sunday at Murrayfield.

As I write this blog, The Scottish team has not yet been finalized and there are some anxious looks in the camp as they battle a series of minor injuries from the battle in Paris. Winger Tommy Seymour sustained a hip injury and at this stage it is uncertain if he will be passed fit.  There are a number of other players who also required management and assessment by the medical team early in the week, they include: Mark Bennett (leg), Geoff Cross (leg), Alex Dunbar (neck/shoulder), Robert Harley (leg) and Alasdair Strokosch (leg).

One certain change is the absence of Euan Murray. Murray never plays on a Sunday and if Geoff Cross doesn’t recover in time, then Scotland may struggle to dominate the scrums in the same way as England and they will certainly be looking to reduce the penalty count. The threat of Leigh Halfpenny’s metronomic accuracy with the boot will be in the back of their minds and Cotter will have no doubt be stressing discipline in his squad drills this week.

If confidence is high in Scotland, t isn’t with the public in Wales. The hard-core Welsh support must be wondering whom they upset with a Friday night home game being followed by a Sunday afternoon encounter. There was massive criticism of the team’s performance against England and a strong call for multiple changes.

Warren Gatland didn’t heed it. He is either a genius or totally pig headed. The weaknesses shown against England were evident last season and the fixation with a single game plan built on bulk and power just isn’t working.

Just one change for Wales then with George North sitting this one out after his concussion against England. The welsh medical team came in for a lot of scrutiny this week for allowing North to continue playing after two clear head injuries. Liam Williams is recalled to the side in his place in the starting XV.

Wales really were poor. Not quite as bad as last year’s debacle in Dublin but they were comprehensively out thought and out defended by England. The one-dimensional aspect to their attack means there is no plan B. Wales are kicking possession away and not breaking the gain line.

I was surprised to see Gethin Jenkins retained ahead of Paul James. Jenkins has struggled with referee interpretations of the new scrum laws and he has lucky not to be yellow carded in the first half in Cardiff. Richard Hibbard was invisible in the loose and his skud missile like throwing action meant Wales never got an effective line out platform.

Samson Lee was another concussion victim, the Second row were weak and the back row with Faletau excepted; were also completely dominated and outplayed by England.

Wales won’t play as bad again. Last year they were simply awful against Ireland and bounced back to defeat France by a comprehensive margin.  This time the main difference is a narrow defeat at home (where Wales were flattered by the score line) and now a tough away trip.

The critical part will be the first half. Wales are notorious slow starters and I had this game marked as a shock defeat even if they had neaten England. The defeat at home will toughen Welsh resolve and I don’t think you will see as poor a performance this weekend.

Scotland need to start strongly.  If they get 10 points in front then it’s all over for Wales. On the other hand a Welsh lead at half time and I think they will step up a gear. Tough to call.

In the end, I will go against my pre-tournament call for a Scottish win and call Wales to bounce back and just about ease to a win. Defeat here and Wales World Cup is over before it begins. The players will know that and respond accordingly. Wales by 5 points.

SCOTLAND 21 WALES 26

Six Nations 2015 Round 1 – Under the Rose or Dragon’s Fire?

After last week’s brief tournament overview the real games begin tomorrow night with the titanic opening clash in Cardiff. Quite why the biggest game of the Six nations is on a Friday night beggars belief especially as the last trains to London finish at 9:30pm before the final whistle. Why is it we can’t organize things properly in the UK?

Anyway enough of that and on to this weekend’s games. Three great opening clashes, which will set the scene for the whole tournament.

WALES v ENGLAND

The game of the tournament starts on what will be a cold Friday night in Cardiff. Stuart Lancaster has ended the cold war of words before the match by exercising his right to have the Millennium Stadium roof open to apparently reduce the noise of the home crowd. I think Stuart needs to realize that it’s more about how the team on the field performs rather than the singing prowess of the crowd that will determine the final result.

This should be a titanic battle with Wales clear favourites.  These matches usually are not the close results people expect. As I stated last year – the average over the last 10 games has been 10 points. I do feel that tonight’s encounter will break the mould and will be a very closely fought game.

Wales start as favourites with almost a full strength side. Some late concerns on Jonathan Davies and Samson Lee seem to been shaken off so the Dragon’s start with probably the best line up. I am a little surprise to see Cuthbert keep his place but beyond that – its hard to argue with the rest of the team and Gatland and his coaching staff have rode their luck to have a fully fit squad.

As I discussed last week, England have not quite been so lucky but still have a very strong squad and are close to matching Wales in many areas. Lets take a brief look at the battles that could determine the match.

In the pack – the front row battle will be critical. Marler vs. Lee sounds like a Heavyweight prizefight and it probably will be. The returning Dan Cole will face up to his old friend and nemesis Gethin Jenkins. Jenkins – now 34 is still in outstanding form but scrimmaging has always been his weakest point. Hookers evenly matched with Hibbard and Hartley both impressive in their league form.  Honours even up front.

Second row – Wales clearly the stronger pairing. Dave Attwood has been magnificent but he faces the beating heart of the Welsh team in the emotional Alun Wyn-Jones and the aggressive Jake Ball. Advantage Wales.

Back row – again pretty even on paper but I fear England have the advantage here. Whilst Welsh Captain Sam Warburton is back to his brilliant best, Falatau and Lydiate have not been at the top of their game. Robshaw, Haskell and Vunipola are all in strong form and there should be an England advantage here.

Half backs – Ospreys’ pair Rhys Webb and Dan Biggar have the edge and as a club pair they know each other's game extremely well. George Ford has been exciting for Bath but seemed to struggle a little bit under pressure in big games at Bath. Youngs remains solid and reliable. Advantage Wales.

Centres – Roberts has shown great form recently but remains a predictable player for England to defend against. Jonathan Davies is not quiet at the top of his game but still the Welsh pair should have the edge over Joseph and Burrell. Another plus for Wales.

Back three – again difficult to call. Mike Brown was player of the tournament last year and remains the most dangerous runner from full back in World rugby. Halfpenny is back to form at Toulon. The massively overrated George North is still a defensive liability and Cuthbert has been out of sorts. Jonny May will challenge them for pace but Anthony Watson is a strange choice for me. When England has so many strong wingers – why pick a full back? The argument that someone is too good to leave out never work in rugby so even with the danger of Brown and May – a narrow advantage to Wales.

The secret for England will be to get their line out functioning early and keep it tight with the rolling maul. Scrum penalties will come to both teams but Wales more likely to infringe there. Expect lots of penalties and both Ford and Halfpenny will be busy tonight. I see no more than 1 try in the match and Wales advantages in the threequarters will see them manage to breach the England line.  A tight game with no more than 5 points in it.

Wales 23 England 18

ITALY v IRELAND

Away from the cold of Cardiff, the mid afternoon sunshine in Rome will see Ireland open their campaign against the Azzuri.  The Irish have picked a strong but experimental side with one or two real surprises for me.

The biggest surprise is the selection of Munster’s Ian Keatley at outside half. Keatley has never really impressed in the Green shirt and his performances for Munster this season have been underwhelming to say the least.  Joe Schmidt has gone for the club pairing with Conor Murray beating injury to join him in the half backs. I feel Keatley is an odd choice ahead of Leinster's Ian Madigan and one Italy must exploit if they are going to make any impact.

Outside the half backs, the Irish backs look dangerous and powerful. Simon Zebo returns on the wing and Payne and Henshaw are the form centre pairings with the reliable and dangerous attacking players Tommy Bowe and Rob Kearney taking the final places. If they get the ball in the backs – then it could be goodnight Vienna for Italy.

In the forwards, the return of Sean O’Brien will be well received by all in rugby. He is a rugby fans player. All heart and muscle and someone who rather die on the pitch than lose a match. O’Mahony and the excellent Jordan Murphy join him in a strong back row. 

Captain O’Connell will lead the pack and Ireland doesn’t show any weak areas aside from Keatley. A tough proposition.

What of Italy?  Well coach Jacques Brunel is clearly focusing on winning home matches.  Italy are anxious to turn over a new leaf in the Six Nations after last year's wooden-spoon performance.

Italy will be without a number of experienced players for the opening encounter. Lock Quintin Geldenhuys is out for the entire tournament and he joins Italy are without injured centres Gonzalo Canale and Gonzalo Garcia, lock Marco Bortolami, and flanker Samuela Vunisa on a long injury list.

Zebre lock Biagi has been included in the starting XV alongside Treviso flanker Francesco Minto who is recalled to the staring line up.  The two players are the only changes made by Brunel in his starting line-up with respect to the side that lost 22-6 to South Africa in Padua in Italy's last autumn Test in November.

I am surprised that Thomasso Allen is on the bench with uncapped Treviso flanker Marco Barbini but expect to see both get some game time.  Sergio Parisse will continue to be the best forward in eth Six Nations but with a lack of strength in depth, iits hard to see Italy doing anything to upset Ireland. If anything, it will be Ireland’s errors that will give Italy any chances.

Italy 14 Ireland 28

SCOTLAND v FRANCE

I predicted Scotland would surprise a few people this season and this could be a challenging opening encounter for France.  An early evening encounter in a chilly Paris will not be what the doctor ordered and Scotland will be more disoriented with the news that France will wear Red shirts at home for the first time since 1959! Why I hear you ask?

Beats me – yet another strange decision from the FFR – perhaps they feel wearing Welsh red will instill the dragon’s heart and give them the edge. Again this season – a strange decision.

Scotland has picked a strong looking team with lots of new faces in a bold selection from coach Vern Cotter. Glasgow duo Finn Russell and Mark Bennett join London Irish back-row Blair Cowan as three players making their six nations debuts in the starting line up with another four debutants - Edinburgh scrum-half Sam Hidalgo-Clyne , Glasgow Warriors' Peter Horne, hooker Fraser Brown and loose-head prop Gordon Reid on the bench.

Stuart Hogg leads from full back forming a strong back there with the lightning quick Tim Visser and Tommy Seymour.  A very strong backs three.  At centres debutant Bennett is joined by Alex Dunbar, with Russell forming the predicted half back pairing with Graig Laidlaw.

In the pack, the Grey brother Jonny and Richie are paired together for the fourth consecutive time. In the front row of the pack, Edinburgh's Alasdair Dickinson will earn his 40th cap in a highly experienced front row beside club-mate Ross Ford and Euan Murray, the latter with 62 caps. Rob Harley, Castres number eight Johnnie Beattie and Cowan form a new combination in the back row.

 

For France – we see seven changes for the side that lost 18-13 to South Africa in Paris in November.. South African-born scrum-half Rory Kockott will make his first start for France after making three substitute appearances for Les Bleus during the November internationals.

Camille Lopez, retains the No 10 jersey and will form a new combination with Kockott as his Castres half back partner Remi Tales, who was first choice in last season's Six Nations, starts on the bench.

Scott Spedding, another South African-born player is retained  at full-back, while Stade Francais prop Rabah Slimani comes in at tight-head,

Samoa-born La Rochelle prop Uini Atonio is preferred to the Nichoias Mas, on the bench.

Toulon's Mathieu Bastareaud comes in at outside centre in place of the injured Alexandre Dumoulin, while La Rochelle flanker Loann Goujon could make his France debut if he comes off the bench. The experienced Huget and Fofana  will create problems fro Scotland in the backs and with Morgan Parra on the bench, France always be dangerous.

An unusual team but a very strong bench could be hit or miss for France. Hard to say although the ultimate decider could be who bottles it first. Lots of new faces on both teams and Paris is not normally the place for happy debuts.

I am excited by Russell and Laidlaw for Scotland and the dangerous back three but it will crucially depend on how much ball they get to run at France. The French team is such an unknown quantity its really hard to know how they will play. This could be the most exciting and difficult game to call of the whole weekend.

I think home advantage will tell and France will triumph.

France 28 Scotland 19