Six Nations Week 3 – Who has Midpoint Momentum?
After two exciting rounds of encounters, your correspondent is feeling good with five out of six results correctly predicted – an 83.3% accuracy rate! As we enter the halfway stage of the 2017 Six Nations – it's a case of who has midpoint momentum which will see them through to the final finish line.
England look like the team with the most momentum after a photo finish final try in a tense and exciting encounter in Cardiff.
Wales will be licking their wounds and wondering how but for a moment of sheer madness they threw away victory.
Ireland bounced back with a demolition of Italy in Rome and France showed that their impressive performance at Twickenham was not just a one off by outmuscling a counter-attacking Scottish team in Paris. This weekend has at least two out of three tight tough encounters to look forward to.
SCOTLAND v WALES
First up on Saturday afternoon is an intriguing encounter between the Celtic nations at Murrayfield. Scotland will be in confident mood after two good opening performances whilst Wales will want to build on their strong showing against England in what should be a close and exciting match north of the border.
Scotland continued their momentum with a strong showing in Paris. They really look like the best counter attacking side in the championship and spill the ball and go to sleep at your peril as France found in conceding an early try where Stuart Hogg was once again the scorer. Vern Cotter will be very optimistic of Scotland beating Wales for the first time in a decade when the two teams roll on the Murrayfield turf for the 2:25pm kick off.
It’s an unusual scenario for Scotland to be going into this game as marginal favourites given the home advantage. Whilst they currently have a high degree of confidence now, and have recently found a way of winning and closing out games, they’ve always been a strong side at home. But winning on the road remains a challenge for them and the French game was theirs for the taking.
At the centre of this return to form in Scottish rugby is the investment made into the club structure by the Scottish Rugby Union. Glasgow Warriors have been growing as a force over the past three seasons and this season they are absolutely bullying sides in the European tournaments. Vern Cotter’s ability to pick tried and tested club units, all of whom have pre-existing understanding of each other, is key to them continuing to build momentum at international level.
Scotland are a tight-knit squad who have a clearly defined rucking and driving game, all orchestrated by the much-improved Finn Russell at fly-half. They show tremendous team spirit and their ability to counter attack from low possession is unparalleled in the current world game. They’ve a lot of options in the back five of the scrum, although the loss of Josh Strauss will rob them of one of their main ball carriers.
Greg Laidlaw’s absence is a major issue for Cotter and he will be sorely missed especially given his ability to keep the scoreboard ticking over and his accuracy with the boot has been key to Scottish hopes in all their recent matches.
Scotland coach Vern Cotter revealed five changes from the side who lost in France and flanker John Barclay will captain Scotland for the first time in seven years in their Six Nations clash with Wales at Murrayfield on Saturday, taking over from Laidlaw. Thirty-year-old Barclay will captain the side for just the second time, having previously led Scotland against New Zealand in 2010.
The three other changes come in the pack as Gordon Reid makes his first start of the Championship at loose head replacing Allan Dell to pack down in an all Glasgow Warriors front row alongside Fraser Brown and Zander Fagerson.
John Barclay is joined in the back row by the recalled John Hardie and Ryan Wilson.
Hardie returns from injury to take over the open side flanker duties meaning Hamish Watson slides to the bench while Wilson returns from an elbow infection to take over from the also-injured Josh Strauss, while injured wing Sean Maitland is replaced by Tim Visser.
Ali Price looks likely to make a first international start as replacement at halfback for Laidlaw, who will miss the rest of the tournament with an ankle ligament injury.
Wales have not lost in the fixture since seven Chris Paterson penalties condemned them to a 21-9 defeat in 2007, a run which has included four Murrayfield victories on the bounce.
For Wales, this fixture is a critical bump in the road. They really need to be ruthless and defend strongly to stop Scotland from building their spoiling, counter attacking game.
I don’t buy the notion that England were the equal of Wales in Cardiff. In my eyes, England were second in virtually every department bar the set-piece for almost 75 minutes of the match and quite frankly Wales should have closed that game out long before the last quarter. They were very impressive in all departments for very long periods against England but for a side that’s shown such a simple game plan and execution over the years, Wales’ thinking and decision making under pressure from both players and coaches, was simply diabolical in that match and cost them the game. England didn’t win it, Wales lost it through stupidity.
Interim Welsh Head Coach Robert Howley will be delighted to have George North back as the giant Northampton wing has recovered from a leg injury that side-lined him for Wales' 21-16 loss at Cardiff.
North replaces the ailing Alex Cuthbert who has been the subject of much dialogue and social media abuse in Wales and it is the only change following the England defeat.
The selection of Cuthbert has been simple animal cruelty. He has shown such poor form over that past 12 months that he really shouldn’t have ever been put in that position. The vitriol he has received in many quarters however is simply unacceptable. No one doubts his commitment and effort but he should never have been placed in that position. It is a damning indictment of Wales’ ineffective and conservative selection policies that they keep resorting to tried and trusted players – regardless of form – rather than bringing on the next generation. This is a total contrast to the belief Eddie Jones has shown in young players like Itoje and Daly who re-paid his faith many fold over the past 12 months.
Howley has not surprisingly opted to retain the back row of Sam Warburton, Justin Tipuric and Ross Moriarty who really took the game to England’s acknowledged pack, with 63 times-capped number eight Taulupe Faletau again on the bench.
Moriarty was arguably Wales' outstanding performer against England, while flankers Sam Warburton and Justin Tipuric have also been back in prime form, so it is no surprise that Howley has gone for the same again. There was considerable controversy when Moriarty was substituted against the Rose and there is no doubt the English forwards were glad to see the back of him given his ball carrying and bone crunching defence.
Faletau, as a result of two knee injuries, has made only a couple of 80-minute appearances for his club this term, yet he will potentially offer a considerable impact off the bench at Murrayfield, if required.
There is one other switch among the replacements, with Faletau's Bath colleague Luke Charteris involved for the first time in Wales' current Six Nations campaign. He returns from an injury to a fractured hand, and has regained full fitness and takes over as second-row cover from Newport Gwent Dragons lock Cory Hill.
Several of the Welsh team had their best ever games in the red jersey against England. Ken Owens and Jake Ball in particular were a real nuisance to England and the starting props are also rightly retained with Rob Evans and Tomas Francis retaining their places. After Scotland’s scrummaging problems against France, Wales will look to their front row to rule the set-piece roost.
There was a lot of talk of perhaps bringing young Scarlets flyer Steff Evans onto the bench in place of Jamie Roberts but Howley has gone with experience and stayed loyal to the iron man, squared jawed, granite-hewn centre as his threequarter cover.
In my view, Howley has called it right. He will certainly be looking for forward domination in the scrums where Scotland look vulnerable and if Shaun Edwards has done his defensive homework then Wales will prove a real handful for Scotland to deal with if they want the victory.
Wales need to keep to their game plan, avoid giving away too many kickable penalties and bully Scotland at the set piece. Their ability to limit Stuart Hogg running from depth will be key and if Wales keep doing aimless long clearance kicks then they could be in trouble.
Winning at Murrayfield has become a habit for Wales and I feel they will have just too much for Scotland. A tight game with one score between the teams
Scotland 20 Wales 24
IRELAND v FRANCE
This is another game where hopefully we will see some more fireworks and running rugby as Guy Noves takes his rapidly improving French side to Dublin to take on Ireland. The Irish really do have a poor record against France and this will be a real tester for both teams as they seek to continue their championship challenges. In their last three encounters in the Championship, there's only been one score in it, they had two draws prior to that.
Ireland rebounded in a strong way in Rome after their catastrophic failure in Edinburgh in week 1. Jonny Sexton has recovered from a calf strain and is one of three changes that Joe Schmidt has made from the side that defeated Italy last time out, with captain Rory Best and Jack McGrath coming into the front row.
Sexton has been out of action for five weeks and will feature in his first international outing since the Autumn Series defeat to New Zealand last November. Given his talismanic status with Schmidt and Ireland – he was always going to be recalled to the starting line-up. Ulster’s Paddy Jackson, who has deputised admirably, kicked nine from nine against Italy and was a try-scorer in the opening round defeat to Scotland, has to make do with a place on the bench. You have to feel for Jackson who really has not put a foot wrong in the last few games and gets side-lined for someone who has not had a game in over 5 weeks.
Rory Best’s run of 51 consecutive Six Nations matches came to an end in Rome when he was ruled out with a stomach bug and the Ulster hooker replaces debutant Niall Scannell. The Munster man is on the bench with James Tracey missing out on the match day 23.
Jack McGrath is recalled at prop to win his 39th cap after losing out to Cian Healy against Italy and there are further changes on the bench with hat-trick hero Craig Gilroy losing out to provincial team-mate Andrew Trimble who also came through training unscathed.
Ulster's Andrew Trimble could make his first appearance of the tournament after recovering from a groin problem to earn a spot as a replacement. I am delighted to see him back in the fold and except he will be hungry for action when he undoubtedly makes a 2nd half appearance.
Sexton is the only change to the starting Irish back division, with Conor Murray starting at No 9, Robbie Henshaw and Garry Ringrose linking up in the centres, and Rob Kearney making a Lazarus-like recovery to take the No 15 shirt.
Fit again Peter O’Mahony replaces the injured Josh van der Flier, while Iain Henderson is selected ahead of Ultan Dillane who failed to make the squad earlier this week.
For France, their hard-earned win over Scotland will give them a significant confidence boost for the clash at the Aviva Stadium. France downed Ireland in Paris last year but had since slipped to four defeats in a row in this famous old Championship until they overcame Scotland last time out.
Guy Noves has made three changes in personnel for Saturday’s clash with Ireland, with Yoann Huget, Bernard Le Roux and Rabah Slimani all coming into the starting XV.
In the forwards Slimani's fine form off the bench in the first two rounds - he scored a try against England in round one - earns him the starting tighthead job with the giant Uini Atonio dropping to the bench.
With Loann Goujon injured, Noves has been forced into a back row re-shuffle where Le Roux has beaten Charles Ollivon for the blindside flanker berth with the Toulon flanker added to the bench.
Meanwhile in the backs Yoann Huget is rewarded for his solid form coming in on the right wing as Fijian flyer Virimi Vakatawa is ruled out with injury. On the bench loosehead Eddy Ben Arous returns for Noves' side while centre Henry Chavancy is in line for his debut and there is also space for Djibril Camara as back three cover - his first inclusion in the France match day 23 in this year's Championship.
The backbone of that side is retained here, so Scott Spedding is again at full-back alongside his Clermont club mate Noa Nakaitaci on the left wing with Huget on the right.
Remi Lamerat and Gael Fickou are paired in midfield while Camille Lopez and Baptiste Serin remain the half-back pairing. Cyril Baille keeps the starting loosehead and is joined by skipper Guilhem Guirado and Slimani in the front row. Sebastian Vahaamahina and Yoann Maestri remain the locks while Le Roux accompanies Kevin Gourdon and Louis Picamoles in the back row.
Ireland have built their national success around taking club units to their national team for a number of years, using their excellent youth structure to create understanding and the provincial teams to build upon that. France, under Guy Noves are trying to do exactly the same model and you can see Noves trying to build that understanding with the La Rochelle back-rowers and the Clermont midfield.
Critically, France have developed a much more consistent game plan with much less of the “high and low” moments of concentration and focus during a match which has limited their progress for many years and they have also added a new-found skill of continuity of pressure. Occasional flashes of brilliance doesn’t win many games if there’s no continuity of pressure. A lot of that progress is down to the linking of the excellent flanker Kevin Gourdon at openside, and the holes that Louis Picamoles creates with his massive carries.
The back-row battle will be absolutely key to winning this titanic struggle in Dublin. Ireland have great balance with CJ Stander on the blindside combining with we all know what Jamie Heaslip brings with skill and intellect, and on the open side, Sean O’Brien is one of the best over-the-ball men in the game, an utter clamp of a man at the ruck.
It’s a real tough game to call and there’s great balance and match ups everywhere; Remi Lamerat versus Robbie Henshaw is a great example of two power centres that will go at each other all day. Baptiste Serin has continued to impress and will be a great counter to Conor Murray.
This match will be about which side wins in the back-row defence and carry. It’s a mouthwatering match up and home advantage should see Ireland through. Just.
Ireland 23 France 18
ENGLAND v ITALY
England return to HQ as the only unbeaten side and look odds on to continue their championship chase with a big bonus point victory over an Italian side who look short on confidence and any sort of form. England are showing that level of arrogance which all sporting greats have – a bit like being 1-0 against Man United at Old Trafford with 5 mins to go and knowing you will lose 2-1. They show such confidence in every match right now and seem to have incredible self-belief that they will triumph in every match and they also know how to win when not playing particularly well as shown in their last two matches.
As publishing deadlines approach and your correspondent packs up for a weekend in Scotland; the England team announcement hasn’t been made although there are not too many changes expected. Mako Vunipola has returned from his brief injury and looks likely to have a place in the weekend 23 potentially starting the match. He is one of just two loose head props in the England squad, so will almost certainly feature alongside Joe Marler - who has started the first two games.
England haven’t quite fired in the pack and Vunipola’s strength and power will be a welcome return to the pack. I find it strange not to see James Haskell start a game as yet and Jack Clifford was pretty anonymous against Wales – so I feel Jones may shake things up in a back-row mix which really hasn't fired in either of the opening salvos.
Bath’s Anthony Watson could also come back into the match day mix after recovering from a hamstring injury and looks likely to take a wing position with Elliot Daly likely to move to centre as Jonathan Joseph has been sent back to his club for this weekend.
Eddie Jones will want to keep the England juggernaut moving forwards and will want to see his team assert their dominance and go for the throat. I think we’ll see some changes for this game; again, back row balance is key to winning teams and frankly Nathan Hughes has been very disappointing in the white shirt and has totally failed to impose himself in the way he does in the Aviva Championship for Wasps.
England have not looked solid in their back row in either match so far but that's not surprising given the world class back row talent in both Welsh and French sides. Jack Clifford was a little lightweight in a game of huge collisions and his place is certainly under threat. Rumours abound that Northampton Saints’ Teimana Harrison has trained at No.8 this week with the England squad and Jones may take a chance and give him a start there.
In the backs, many are calling for Danny Care to be recalled at scrum half and there is a strong case to try Ben Te’o in the starting XV, potentially moving Owen Farrell to ten. I also believe Jamie George has earned the right to start and that might mean Owen skippering and running the show at fly-half.
Former Azzurri coach Nick Mallet was vocal in the press this week about the Italian coaching role being one of the toughest in world rugby. Regular readers will know I am not an enthusiast for Italy in the Six Nations and I argue strongly against the consensus that Italy are getting stronger every season because they’re not!
Another wooden spoon season of serious hidings and calls for a play-off against European Champions Georgia will be ringing louder and louder. Bluntly, with Georgia ahead of Italy in the world rankings, there’s no reason why the Six Nations should not adopt promotion and relegation moving forward. It’s criminal that the Georgians have no way of progressing their rugby despite earning that right.
It would also be a much-needed wake up call for Italy, making them fight for the right to be in the top tier rather than hanging on in quiet desperation in the hope they may get one or two decent results. Unfortunately, unless Italy changes its club game structure it’s hard to them make real progress. The two professional clubs – Treviso and Zebre have not had a great experience in the Guinness Pro 12 and the gap in class between the two pro franchises and the local Italian championship is a real gulf and not encouraging for bringing a sufficient quantity of quality players through to international level.
Conor O'Shea has had a pretty torrid time in the opening two matches with the Italians conceding 96 points, 12 tries and a negative 79 points difference so far. He has made four changes to his match day XV that lost to Ireland in Rome last time out, with Tommaso Allan and Michele Campagnaro recalled to face England in Sunday's encounter.
Allan comes in for Carlo Canna at Outside Half, earning his first start for the Azzurri since June 2016, while Campagnaro replaces Tommaso Benvenuti in midfield.
The recall of Exeter Chiefs centre Campagnaro has been coming for some time and frankly I am very surprised that he hasn’t featured so far in the competition. He brings a much harder edge to the Italian threequarters and he will be one to fear as he is well known to the England backs after his storming performances in the Aviva championship.
There is a third change in the backline where Giulio Bisegni returns on the right wing in place of Angelo Esposito, reclaiming the spot he had occupied in round one against Wales.
Esposito misses out altogether on the matchday squad.
O'Shea’s final change comes in the back row where Abraham Steyn replaces Maxime Mbanda, and he will line up alongside with Simone Favaro and Sergio Parisse.
Mbanda drops down to the bench where there are two further changes, with both props being switched. Michele Rizzo replaced the injured Dario Chistolini earlier in the week and will provide loose head cover, while Zebre tight head Pietro Ceccarelli also included.
It’s hard to see any real improvement likely at Twickenham for Italy and another cricket score defeat the likely outcome for the Azzurri. Expect to see England dominating and a sure bonus point. England will win, but it’s the style of performance with which they’ll be measured. Eddie Jones has set some high standards for his England and anything but a crushing win will be unacceptable for this excellent side.
England 76 Italy 6
2017 Six Nations Week 2 – Now we’re getting warm…
So the opening weekend of 2017 Six Nations action saw three cracking contests and competitive rugby between all six teams. Scotland finally came of age with a narrow victory over an Ireland team which will rue the missed opportunities. England wobbled but overcame a gallant and reborn French challenge and Wales ground out a good win in Rome despite an absolutely dire first 40-minute performance. The new bonus point system for scoring four tries did not come into play as no team managed that feat although France and Ireland both picked up losing bonus points.
Both Wales and Scotland had opportunities to gain the critical bonus’s and their failure to execute could come back to haunt both of them in a tight championship finish.
Let’s review this weekend’s matches with your correspondent’s overview and predictions:
ITALY v IRELAND
The battle of the first-round losers will open the weekend with a 2:25pm kick off in Rome. Italy will take heart from their first half performance against Wales and Ireland’s unconvincing pack performance in Murrayfield will give them confidence as we go into their second home fixture. The two sides have met 26 times before, with Italy winning just four of those, the last coming back in 2013 at the Stadio Olimpico.
Italy head coach Conor O'Shea has made four changes to the side that was beaten last weekend on home turf by Wales, with three of those coming in the pack. Simone Favaro returns to openside flanker having missed the opening round loss in place of Abraham Steyn, while Leonardo Ghiraldini starts at hooker for Ornel Gega.
Both Steyn and Gega drop to the bench, as does George Biagi with Andries van Schalkwyk preferred in the second row.
In the back line, Angelo Esposito comes in on the right wing for Giulio Bisegni, while on the opposite flank Giovanbattista Venditti will reach 40 caps for the Azzurri. Edoardo Gori and Carlo Canna are retained in the half-back positions, as are Tommaso Benvenuti and Luke Mclean in the midfield - with Michele Campagnaro once again having to make do with a spot on the bench which is puzzling.
Captain Sergio Parisse has been an injury concern all week for the Azzurri and he underwent an MRI scan this week for neck trauma sustained in the second half against Wales. He is named at No.8 and O’Shea will be no doubt visiting the Vatican this week prior to the game to ask for divine intervention on his fitness.
There hasn't been a more influential number eight when it comes to punting and handicap lines since Dean Richards' presence for Leicester in the 80s and 90s. Parisse's importance was underlined when Italy beat South Africa 20-18 in the autumn, only for Tonga to turn them over the following week when he was on the side lines.
But even Parisse couldn't gather his troops after a solid defensive effort and a try from a rolling maul in the first half against Wales, which saw them go in 7-3 up at the break. In fact, he began to lose the plot and the referee threatened him with a red card at one point such was his constant bleating about the decisions.
Conor O’Shea will also be concerned about Italy’s overall fitness and their failure to add a single point in the second half in Rome. They still seem to be competitive for only 60 minutes and he will be looking for forward dominance in the scrum and maul to drain the Irish defence which is currently leaking an average of three tries per match.
Ireland will look back with horror at the possession statistics from Murrayfield and their weak defensive performance leaking three tries to Scotland. Ireland 58% possession and spent 59% of the opening stanza in Scotland territory in the opening 40 minutes in Murrayfield but failed to capitalise but were ripped apart by the attacking guile of Stuart Hogg and the attitude and never say die approach of the Highlanders.
The main thing that went wrong for Ireland at Murrayfield was that their offense play was often uninspiring and predictable, with very few proper line breaks and depended heavily on the big ball carriers to punch holes. It was rather like watching Wales play in Green Jerseys at times. Ringrose and Henshaw were toothless and Rob Kearney failed to make his usual attacking contribution.
Tommy Bowe is an irish legend, but his best days are over. With all the exciting talent available – especially with so many Irish qualified backs playing with their provinces, I am not sure why Joe Schmidt cannot start building a backline that can worry the other nations.
Coach Joe Schmidt will be looking for far better against Italy and has swung the axe making several changes to his match day 23.
There are three changes to the starting XV. Cian Healy and Donnacha Ryan have both been recalled for Saturday's clash at the Stadio Olimpico. Healy comes in to make his first Six Nations start since the Championship-winning game against Scotland in Murrayfield in 2015.
Elsewhere Donncha Ryan, who has recovered from a knee injury replaces Iain Henderson who drops out of the match day 23 through injury. Jack McGrath is dropped to the replacements to make way for his Leinster team-mate.
Ireland’s failure to dominate a weakened Scottish front row was a major surprise and is more than likely the reason for Healy’s recall. I was more concerned about Ireland’s back row performance. Sean O’Brien made an impressive return but CJ Stander was rather anonymous and No.8 Jamie Heaslip was extremely disappointing and absent at key moments in the match losing possession on several occasions.
Tommy Bowe has been released from the Ireland squad for Ulster's Pro12 clash with Edinburgh, as a result Craig Gilroy comes in on the bench.
Paddy Jackson had a solid game but uninspiring game against Scotland and was proven correct in my feeling that the loss of Jonny Sexton and Peter O’Mahoney would have a big impact on that first match. Both players remain with dubious match fitness and neither player has been risked for the trip to Rome, but both should be available for the game with France in a fortnight.
There were calls in Ireland for a significant rebuild of the team but it is largely a case of same old, same old from Joe Schmidt. The team should have enough attacking capability to get a Bonus Point from the Italians, but I fear they may struggle against the French. Schmidt’s selection is too conservative and safety first in my view. There was the chance to get some younger players in for the big game experience to build for the World Cup in Japan but he's stayed conservative after last defeat.
I expect Ireland to bounce back with some style in Rome. The forecast is better than the rain which blighted last Sunday’s encounter and Ireland will want to avoid the forward grind and use their backs to use their creativity and penetrate a leaky Italian defence.
I really was disappointed with Italy's attitude from a winning position last Saturday. If Ireland, who have made two uncontroversial changes in the pack at prop and lock, cut loose early this could get very messy, very quickly.
Italy clearly were well in the game at the interval, but Wales had been so dire that you sensed it was only a matter of time before the visitors found their stride and a shocking Italian penalty count enabled Leigh Halfpenny to nudge them 12-7 in front going into the final quarter before three converted tries saw them coast home 33-7.
Wales were poor but if that match had gone on for another 10 minutes, then they would have won by 50, not 26, and that spells trouble for the Azzurri this Saturday.
They have always been a hit-and-miss side, but they don't tend to react well when losing from winning positions - and there is little doubt they felt the ref was against them last week - and last season's results in this competition hammers that home.
They should have beaten France away in their opening game instead of losing 23-21 and in the next game they got humped 40-9 at home by England, followed by another three dismissals, including a 56-15 loss in Dublin.
And, for all Ireland would have been very disappointed by their Murrayfield loss, there is no better way to get back on the horse than playing a downbeat Italy. I only see one winner and the concerns over Parisse only add to that feeling. Ireland to make hay and a comfortable victory.
ITALY 6 IRELAND 40
WALES v ENGLAND
Both Wales and England recorded opening day victories but neither coaching team will be happy with their team performances. Wales were simply dire in the opening 40 minutes before finally putting Italy to the sword with 30 unanswered points in the second stanza.
England were caught unawares by the battling French and spent large periods of the game in catch up. The traditional French failing of giving away soft penalties finally told and England can breathe a sigh of relief as the victory and look forward to the short trip down the M4 to Cardiff.
Coach Robert Howley made some dreadful selection howlers against Italy with the wrong front row for the gruelling encounter with the wily and talented Italian pack. Wales dominated possession for the first 20 minutes and were camped in the Italian 22 but failed to make the pressure count in the red zone and came away with nothing.
The half time injury to Dan Biggar gave young flyer Sam Davies some game time but the critical change in the game came with the change of props. Wales were able to shore up their scrum and protect their possession from the set piece and set up the platform for victory.
Wales will have not kidded themselves that they played well in victory last Sunday and, like Italy, they also have a six-day turnaround to contend with when they host England. It’s no surprise then to see Howley make just three changes to his match day squad for the crucial encounter against England. Wales will start with those replacement props Rob Evans and Tomas Francis with No.8 Taulupe Faletau, who has not played any rugby in 2017, named among the replacements.
Evans and Francis join Ken Owens in the front-row with aggressive 2nd row Jake Ball retained with and skipper Alun Wyn Jones in the second-row. Sam Warburton, Justin Tipuric and Ross Moriarty make up the back-row.
Warburton was outstanding against Italy and Wales stay with the model of playing two open side flankers against an English back row who lacked depth against France. Ross Moriarty also impressed although seemed to run out of steam during the second half so having Faletau available as an option is good news for the Dragons.
After late fitness tests on Thursday morning, Howley was able to name an unchanged backline with fly half Dan Biggar and wing George North recovering from knocks to start in Cardiff.
Rhys Webb is retained at scrum half and Scarlets duo Scott Williams and Jonathan Davies continue in the midfield with Liam Williams, George North and Leigh Halfpenny comprising a dangerous back three with Halfpenny another who was right back to form in Rome.
Nicky Smith and Samson Lee, the starting props in Rome, drop to the bench alongside Faletau, hoping for his first action since suffering a knee injury playing for his club Bath on Christmas eve.
Hooker Scott Baldwin and Newport Gwent Dragon Cory Hill completing the forward contingent. The back-line cover remains the same from Rome in Gareth Davies, Sam Davies and Jamie Roberts.
England were strangely overawed against France. The breakdown was a major area of concern and the experiment of playing Itoje at flanker was unconvincing with England’s back row trio lacking energy and application.
Coach Eddie Jones has been likened this week by Welsh defensive guru Shaun Edwards to the late great Brian Clough and he has been playing down the Cardiff factor all week as he seeks to get his English Six Nations challenge back on the rails with a stronger all round display against Wales.
England will enter a hostile Principality Stadium with another rookie back row after naming Jack Clifford in place of Tom Wood for Saturday's brutal and critical encounter. Clifford has recovered from a chest injury to make his first international appearance since last summer's tour to Australia and is chosen ahead of the vastly more experienced Wood, who has demoted to the bench. Personally, I thought Wood was very poor against France with poor discipline and ball retention being amongst the many sins in an error strewn performance.
In the only other change to the starting XV that dispatched France 19-16 last Saturday, Jack Nowell is picked on the right wing in a move that sees Jonny May also relegated to a spot among the replacements. Nowell returns to the starting line-up for the first time since the summer tour to Australia having missed the autumn internationals through injury.
Gloucester flyer May, who was shown a yellow card against France, hasn't scored a try in his eight RBS 6 Nations appearances to date with Jones moving him to the "finisher" role off the bench.
The biggest talking point is in the back row, however, with England facing a potentially all-British and Irish Lions Welsh trio with Clifford, Maro Itoje and Nathan Hughes. Hughes was another who was unimpressive against Louis Picamoles and the entire back row have only four back-row starts between them.
There has been considerable coverage in the press and online media of the changes made by Eddie Jones during the game against France with England behind for much of the 80 minutes at Twickenham.
Eddie Jones has resisted any temptation to bring the likes of James Haskell, Danny Care or Ben Te'o into the starting XV after they impressed late-on against Les Bleus. T’eo in particular caught my eye and looks like a real talent!
Haskell is still returning from his recent toe injury and the England head coach will hope that his replacements can have a similar impact against Wales.
The game will come down to discipline and possession. Wales will need a solid platform from scrum, line out and break down if they are to challenge England. I would have liked to see Sam Davies start but otherwise it is a solid looking Welsh line up.
They really need to inject some pace, tempo and rhythm to their play from the start - as well as making their tackles - otherwise even a shorn England will suffocate them. Their pack is never going to frighten anyone - though their back row has pace, which is why England have replaced Tom Wood with Jack Clifford - so their back-line really needs to step up to the plate.
But you do sense that this is the time be playing England, who themselves looked way off the pace against France. They clearly missed the Vunipola brothers going forward - and Chris Robshaw when it got down and dirty in ball-slowing defence stakes - and leaving the X-factor of Jack Nowell on the bench there was clearly a mistake. It is no surprise that the elusive Nowell starts on Saturday.
England do look vulnerable at the moment to a side who can attack them with pace and precision - if they were playing Ireland in Dublin this week I'd go all-in on the home side - but it's just a matter of whether you can see Wales providing that oomph and dynamism.
For England, I would have liked to see Danny care start the match as I think he gives England a faster platform but the form of Dylan Hartley is a real worry and Jamie George has looked far more assured when he has entered the fray. Mike Brown is another who lacked penetration at Twickenham and drops down the Lions pecking order with Hogg and Halfpenny the two to choose right now.
Expect all the fervour and passion this fixture always brings but encounters between the two giants at Cardiff are usually close with the last game in 2015 leading to a narrow England victory. Both teams have lethal goal kickers and the result is too close to call.
Sadly, I feel England have the stronger bench and if Wales play like they did in that first half in Rome then I fear a hammering could be on the cards. At the end my head has to rule my heart and an England victory but not by much.
Wales 23 England 27
FRANCE v SCOTLAND
France will take heart from their stronger showing against England last week but once again failed to gain a victory and they will be disappointed they have been unable to make the breakthrough. Les Bleus at times seemed to lack clarity in attack in the opposing red zone - it seems that many times the easiest way to score is beyond the mentality and belief of the players.
Given France’s spirited performance in “Le Crunch”, France coach Guy Noves has elected to make one just change for the visit of Scotland in their second Six Nations tussle in Paris on Sunday.
Noves has gone for stability keeping 14 of the same starting XV, with just two replacements being switched out too. Loann Goujon is the fresh face at the Stade de France, packing down in the back row alongside Kevin Gourdon and Louis Picamoles in a bid for their first Six Nations win of the season. He replaces Damien Chouly who is among the replacements.
With a forward battle potentially pivotal, the Bordeaux-Begles man will be looking to add some much-needed strength, as well as using his experience of ten RBS 6 Nations caps.
Indeed it was against Scotland whom Goujon made his international debut against two years ago, with all but four of his caps coming in the Championship.
And the 28-year-old will be looking to restore an impressive head-to-head record his side possess against Vern Cotter's side, victorious in ten previous encounters before Scotland's victory at BT Murrayfield, 29-18 in last year's Championship.
On the replacements bench, Christopher Tolofua takes the place of Clément Maynadier at hooker, while second rower Julien Le Devedec takes the spot of Arthur Iturria.
I was very impressed with Baptiste Serin at scrum half who looked assured and controlled and ran the French attacks with aplomb. Scott Spedding was once again impressive at full back and the Fijian backs Nakaitaci and Vakatowa looked very dangerous every time they saw the ball.
Scotland surpassed all expectations in that opening 30 minutes against Ireland. The most obvious positives aspects of their game plan were evident when they kicked their goals under pressure; their invention with ball in hand, and that line-out move, but equally impressive was the way they sorted out their scrum after a shaky start, disrupted Ireland ball at the line-out and really gathered themselves to nail the game late on.
Sure, it had its faults but it was as impressive as we had a right to expect from the underdogs. This weekend’s encounter in Paris is another matter though Scotland haven't won in France since that memorable 36-22 romp in 1999, a match in which they scored five first-half tries.
As my publishing deadline approaches, the Scotland team still hasn’t been announced. Their chance of easing that pain is improved with that win last weekend and Vern Cotter has some critical decisions to make if they are to overcome a resurgent Les Bleus outfit.
I don’t see many changes to the starting line-up but Cotter may be tempted to bring back Ross Ford at hooker. Ford has been very effective in servicing the two Gray brothers at the line out and good as Frazer Brown is, Ford’s 19 tackle contribution against Ireland will be recognised and could be enough to push him into the starting XV.
Elsewhere, Cotter may be tempted to tinker with the back row. In Louis Picamoles, France have perhaps the world's best ball-carrying No 8, his 131 metres last week against England took the breath away. Cotter must decide whether he intends to fight fire with fire, and add to his defensive capabilities in the back-row.
John Barclay is an openside by trade and has been in outstanding form for the Scarlets. He could just be the man to get in Picamoles' face, but on the other hand, Cotter may not wish to lose the cut and thrust that Glasgow Warrior Josh Strauss provides from the base.
Kevin Gourdon and Hamish Watson are nicely matched, while Ryan Wilson is in fine form and a relentless tackler that will help to tie up Northampton's Picamoles.
Any good back row is always a balancing act and Cotter must decide how to weigh his out for a shot at history in Paris.
Scotland’s poor record in Paris clearly counts against them but most encounters against Les Bleus have been tight and Bizarrely, seven points has been the French winning margin on the last two occasions these sides have met in Paris. Scotland must have gained a lot of confidence from that Ireland win and they have the squad to mix it with any side in this tournament.
The point about the Ireland game, however, was that for the first time the hard luck stories were replaced by a driving determination to hang on to their lead and inspired by the kicking and tactical acumen of Greig Laidlaw and the ferocious tackling of 22-year-old Jonny Gray they closed out the win.
Vern Cotter, who spent 20 years of his career playing and coaching in France, has been identifying the weaknesses in a French pack which is powerful, heavy, but ponderously slow. And he can now produce a game plan with the confidence that his players have the mentality to stick to it. Perhaps now they have the belief, too.
Again a very tough game to call but this French team has more steel than we have seen for many seasons and they will not want to disappoint at home.
Expect a tight game and both teams pushing for victory. France to win by one score.
France 20 Scotland 16
Six Nations 2017 – Round 1 – Opening Salvos…
After last week’s preview, it’s now down to the game time action and where the rubber hits the road. All squads will have had their last training sessions where moves and game plans are perfected and final line ups announced. the tournament gets real this weekend. We have three great opening matches to look forward to with some tough encounters for all the teams.
SCOTLAND v IRELAND
First up at the unusual kick off time of 2:25pm is home team Scotland against Ireland. Scotland were impressive in the Autumn – especially against Australia whilst Ireland set the whole world alight with their shock victory over the All Blacks. Both teams will be anxious to avoid a first week defeat and this game could set the tempo for the 2017 championship. Victory is by no means assured for either team. A tough battle at Murrayfield with predicted rain, mild 7C temperatures and the traditional wind effect at the stadium – it’s hard to predict what style of rugby will prevail.
Scotland coach Vern Cotter has publically stated he is looking for a minimum two victories as he bows out as coach handing over to Gregor Townsend at the end of this campaign.
Scotland have shown some real progress over the past 15 months. After a winless Six Nations wooden spoon campaign in 2015, they had a heroic World Cup and followed it with consecutive wins over Italy and France to finish fourth in last year’s championship and backed that up in the autumn with wins over Argentina and Georgia as well as a narrow loss to Australia.
Coach Cotter starting XV for the visit of Ireland shows a mere three changes from the side that finished the autumn. The first of those changes comes in midfield where Huw Jones comes back into the side to replace Mark Bennett at Centre whilst Glasgow pair Josh Strauss, and Fraser Brown return to the starting line-up.
Stormers star Jones scored a thrilling brace of tries against Australia in the first game of the autumn before getting injured in the act of creating a try for Sean Maitland against the Pumas a week later. I am disappointed to not see Matt Scott at least make the bench.
Strauss plays at number eight as Ryan Wilson moves to blind-side flanker, whilst Frazer Brown's inclusion means a place on the bench for Edinburgh's 102 cap Hooker Ross Ford. Brown will form an inexperienced front row with props Allan Dell and Zander Fagerson, who have only seven caps between them.
Hamish Watson holds down the open side flanker role in the back row he occupied so effectively throughout the autumn Tests, and brothers Jonny and Richie Gray are paired once again in the Scotland second row.
Cotter has opted for experience at halfbacks as Greig Laidlaw and Finn Russell partner again, and full-back Stuart Hogg and wingers Sean Maitland and Tommy Seymour form a very dangerous back three who between them scored half of Scotland's tries in the autumn.
On the bench, there is a potential new cap – Edinburgh’s Simon Berghan, the Kiwi-born tight head who has impressed with Edinburgh this season and with Ross Ford and Gordon Reid will bolster the front row from the bench in the second half. Duncan Weir, John Barclay – who has been in superb form for the Scarlets; and Mark Bennett offer a solid foundation and opportunity to change the game plan and direction.
For Ireland, Joe Schmidt’s selection choices have been extensively weakened by the enormous loss of the talismanic Johnny Sexton with a calf injury and Sexton is ranked as only an outside chance to make the week 2 fixture against Italy.
Schmidt didn’t make any unexpected changes in his line up for Murrayfield with Ulster second row Iain Henderson recalled to the side while the return of hard working Leinster flanker Sean O’Brien is a welcome boost as he has been passed fit for action.
Henderson got the nod ahead of Donnacha Ryan, who started both games against New Zealand in November but fails to make the squad of 23.
Sean O’Brien, hasn’t played any rugby since early January as he has been recovering from a calf injury, looks to have done enough in training to convince Schmidt of his worth in the side for the Murrayfield clash.
The 29-year-old flanker takes his place in the back row alongside the outstanding CJ Stander and the reliable Jamie Heaslip. Josh van der Flier will provide cover from the bench.
Peter O'Mahony was ruled out on Tuesday and like Sexton, he is looking "highly unlikely" to be fit for the Italy game on Saturday week with a "grade 1 or 2" hamstring strain.
Andrew Trimble fails to make the bench. The Ulster winger’s training was curtailed this week as he dealt with a groin problem and Simon Zebo and Keith Earls take their places on the wings with Rob Kearney, as expected, named at full-back.
With Johnny Sexton out, Ulsterman Paddy Jackson grasps the opportunity and will win his 20th cap at outside half, partnered as usual by Conor Murray at scrum half with Robbie Henshaw and Garry Ringrose lining up in the centre.
The front row is also named as expected, captain Rory Best has Leinster props Jack McGrath and Tadhg Furlong alongside.
On the Bench, the backs are covered by Tommy Bowe while Kieran Marmion and Ian Keatley will cover the half-back spots. Niall Scannell, Cian Healy, John Ryan, Ultan Dillane and Josh van der Flier are the forwards replacements.
In Sexton’s absence, the game changes dynamic considerably. Finn Russell has been in outstanding form for Glasgow and this is his chance to make his mark on proceedings and steal a march on his rival in the Lions pecking order.
His partnership with skipper Greig Laidlaw is only getting better and if they can get on top of Conor Murray - who will have a huge responsibility on Saturday - then they will go a long way to securing a rare Scottish victory at Murrayfield.
The pack is where the game will be won or lost. I fear for the new look Scottish front row where Jack McGrath and Rory Best will look to capitalise and dominate at the scrum, line out and turnover. I expect a very tight game and a narrow win for Ireland but only just.
Scotland 14 Ireland 17
ENGLAND V FRANCE
First up for England is a difficult opening encounter against France. England will be the hot favourites especially so given Les Bleus poor record at Twickenham. You have to go back 12 years to last see a French victory at HQ in the Six Nations when England’s poor discipline and the metronomic accuracy of Dmitri Yachvili’s boot saw France home by a solitary point.
Since then – it’s been 5 straight defeats with an average winning margin for the Rose of 15 points.
Coach Eddie Jones will brush off the comparisons this week with US President Donald Trump and will have his team prepared and ready for whatever Gallic fervour they will come up against. There are eight changes from the starting line-up that sealed England's first clean sweep of the Six Nations in 13 years when the teams met in Paris last March.
With Bath flyer Anthony Watson unavailable with a hamstring injury, Elliot Daly has been named on the left wing in place of Exeter’s Jack Nowell. The Wasps man plays outside centre for his club, possesses an awesome left boot and is given another opportunity on the wing this weekend. Daly will want to forget and recover from his last outing in the White shirt at winger during England’s match against Argentina when he was sent off in the first half for taking a man out in the air. Such is his all-round footballing ability that Jones has seen fit to give him another crack.
Jack Nowell was expected to fill the position but missed Tuesday's training sessions due to personal reasons. He returned home and was only back in camp on Thursday, resulting in his selection on the bench for the visit of Guy Noves' men to Twickenham.
England have significant injuries with the Vunipola brothers Billy and Mako Vunipola both out with knee injuries and Chris Robshaw (shoulder) all unlikely to play any part in England's title defence. Anthony Watson (hamstring) and second row Kruis (knee) have been sidelined for the tournament opener.
Maro Itoje will make his first start at blindside flanker, replacing shoulder-injury victim Chris Robshaw, while Joe Marler completes a remarkable recovery from a recent fractured leg to take his place at loose head prop.
Joe Launchbury is reinstated to the second row replacing the unfortunate Kruis. Such is England’s depth of talent that Kruis will scarcely be missed with the option of several world class locks at their disposal. Fijian born Nathan Hughes will form a powerful back row combination with Itoje and Tom Wood whilst James Haskell will no doubt feature from the bench.
Mike Brown is Mr. Reliable at Full back and the England back division from half backs Youngs and Ford through centres Farrell and Joseph to wings May and Daly ooze class and unpredictability.
Guy Noves enters his second year as France coach and has named a team infused with youth for his RBS 6 Nations opener. He makes six changes from the side which narrowly lost to New Zealand in November.
There will be Six Nations debuts for Baptiste Serin at scrum half, Kevin Gourdon at flanker and Cyril Baille at prop, while Clemont Second row Arthur Iturria could win his first Test cap off the bench.
French scrum-halves have long had the responsibility of being leaders and playmakers, and it's the turn of 22-year-old Baptiste Serin to step into the limelight at Twickenham. A surprising choice given Maxime Machenaud had worn the number 9 jersey with aplomb in the Autumn, Serin made his debut for France on their summer tour to Argentina, before coming off the bench in each of the three November Tests.
He will link up with Camille Lopez, the Clermont fly-half, who started the game against New Zealand and has re-established himself in the side since missing out on last year's Championship.
As I pointed out in last week’s preview, deprived of players in the Top 14 semi-finals on last summer's tour to Argentina, Noves stumbled upon a new combination of his back row, playing No.8s Louis Picamoles, Kevin Gourdon and Loann Goujon. That continued in November, even after an injury to Goujon, with Charles Ollivon taking his place.
For the RBS 6 Nations it will be Damien Chouly, both a No.8 or a blindside flanker, who will start for the injured Ollivon. Kevin Gourdon will make his Six Nations debut and he has been one of the stand-out players for Top 14 leaders La Rochelle this season.
His impressive display against New Zealand caught my eye - with nine carries, more than 50 metres made, two clean breaks and four defenders beaten - and he could be one to watch this season.
Louis Picamoles, meanwhile, will look to impress on his return to France, having swapped the Top 14 for the Premiership this season with a move to Northampton Saints.
France were dealt a major blow in the lead-up to the Championship when the talented Wesley Fofana suffered a torn Achilles tendon which will keep him out for the rest of the season. In his place will be a player England know well - 22-year-old Gael Fickou. The Toulouse centre scored the try that broke English hearts back in 2014 and is the one player will could adequately the gap left by Fofana.
Fickou will once again link up with Remi Lamerat in midfield, while Noves has plumped for Noa Nakaitaci as centre cover - a position he has played a number of times for club side Clermont.
On the bench, the uncapped Arthur Iturra is joined by another RBS 6 Nations newcomer in Clement Maynadier, acting as hooking cover in the absence of the injured Camille Chat. There is also plenty of experience for Noves to call on, with the likes of Rabah Slimani, Maxime Machenaud and Yoann Huget all waiting in the wings.
France had a massively disappointing championship in 2016 finishing a lowly fifth in the final standings. Noves will be determined to get off to a good start in this year's Championship and whilst a win may at Twickenham may be beyond them, he will be looking for Les Bleus to compete at all aspects of the game.
Even though the fixture is a tricky one to start the competition on, it’s hard to see France changing that record and one can only see another England victory.
France always are heavy infringers in the forwards and England’s kickers will keep the scoreboard ticking over. England by two scores
England 30 France 17
ITALY v WALES
And so, last but not least, the final of this trio of tasty encounters - Sunday afternoon in Rome will see Wales travel to face their nemesis Italy in a predicted warm but damp encounter at the Stadio Olympico. Wales will be very keen to avoid a banana skin start to the championship and their notorious slow burn approach to the competition in recent seasons and their poor Autumn form leaves them open and vulnerable again to another Italian nightmare.
Let’s start with Italy. It’s been 10 years since Italy last beat Wales in Rome and Azzuri boss Conor O’Shea has played it safe in the hope of another upset. He has kept faith with his team which showed improved Autumn form with a side including 10 of the starting line-up that accounted for South Africa in November for Sunday’s 6 Nations clash against Wales.
Edoardo Gori's is recall at scrum-half instead of Giorgio Bronzini represents a solitary change from the back division that started the Springboks clash in Florence. Carlo Canna continues at outside half with the talented Tomasso Allen providing an option off the bench.
Surprisingly – given his great recent form; that means no place for in-form Exeter centre Michele Campagnaro, who is named on the bench with Luke McLean and Tommaso Benvenuti continuing their midfield partnership.
The evergreen Skipper Sergio Parisse, meanwhile, will win his 122nd cap, packing down in a back-row that also includes Six Nations debutant Maxime Mbanda. Mbanda is one of five total changes along with Gori from the team which won that historic victory. The other players recalled are Abraham Steyn, lock George Biagi and prop Andrea Lovotti
The team is very experienced and O’Shea has resisted the temptation to blood any new caps in what is sure to be a bruising encounter. The bulk of the side coming from Pro 12 club sides - Treviso and Zebre; with only Parisse and tighthead prop Lorenzo Cittadini playing outside Italy.
So on to Wales and unfortunately what looked like a promising squad with Seven uncapped players has not materialised into the final starting XV. A massive disappointment and once again shows the lack of vision and ambition from the Welsh team management. Wales have not learned that you need to blood new players and bring them on in the caldron of a competitive match. The Welsh approach which has failed dismally is to pick a second-string team for their weakest Autumn international and then when they play badly stay conservative and resist change. In the meantime, England and Ireland have progressed and built up experience in their fringe players by introducing them alongside the senior players so they can taste the big time in a winning and higher standard side. When will they ever learn? Clearly not in this year’s championship.
Robert Howley has resisted the temptation to make wholesale changes and has gone extremely conservatively with the bulk of the team which was victorious against the stuttering Springboks in their last encounter in Cardiff.
Rather like O’Shea, he has retained 10 of that winning side with only five changes as Wales target a strong start ahead of next week's Principality Stadium appointment with Six Nations title holders England.
Rhys Webb is recalled at scrum half after missing most of Wales' autumn Test series this season through injury, with Scarlets pair Scott Williams and Jonathan Davies teaming up in midfield and 86 times-capped Jamie Roberts named on the bench. Sam Warburton is named at blind side flanker and will form a strong back row with Justin Tipuric and Gloucester’s Ross Moriarty.
Warburton has shown simply no form in club rugby and after an anonymous Autumn, he really should not be anywhere near this match day squad. The omission of the dangerous, in-form Thomas Young shows a lamentable lack of judgment and I fear it will backfire badly on Wales. Young does not even make the bench.
In the pack, Nicky Smith takes the Loose head position in the absence of the injured Gethin Jenkins keeping out Scarlet’s Rob Evans and will pack down with Ken Owens and Samson Lee in the front row. Again – no place for the in-form Cardiff Blues hooker Kristian Dacey with Scott Baldwin named on the bench.
The back three features Leigh Halfpenny at full back with Liam Williams and George North on the wings. Again – a massive opportunity missed as North has been struggling for form and Howley opts not to cap either Steff Evans or Ashton Hewitt on the wing.
Luke Charteris and Taulupe Falatau are both ruled out with injury and join long term absentees Jenkins, Bradley Davies, and Dan Lydiate.
Wales should be confident given the strength of their starting line-up and the fact that most of the Italian team is drawn from the Pro 12 whipping boys teams of Zebre and Treviso. Carlo Canna is an accomplished kicker and Wales will want to avoid giving away kickable penalties. They cannot afford a slow start and will want to build morale. Nothing less than a convincing victory will satisfy the Welsh supporters and I fully expect this team to deliver albeit a missed opportunity. Wales comfortable winners by 12 points.
Italy 14 Wales 26
