Week 3 - Half way Point

Who would be a rugby pundit? I did scratch my head about getting things so wrong in the last round of matches. Brian Moore made a great statement that the Six nations has a habit of throwing out the form book and creating unexpected results. Lets look forward to this week's matches.

Italy v Wales

The Rome sunshine has a habit of causing problems for Wales and is the only place where Italy have won any matches. I have been very critical of Wales this season but I cannot fault the way they shut out Scotland at Murrayfield. A totally dominant performance and the defensive performance was truly world class. Hook was much more effective at No.10 but will return to Centre for this encounter. The re-emergence of Jamie Roberts was good to see and Sam Warburton was outstanding at Flanker. The Welsh back row of Lydiate, Ryan Jones and Warburton look world class and the fact and they will cause Italy a lot of problems. Wales have to attack form the start and starve Italy of possession. They will certainly front up in the pack and Wales's talents behind the scrum should see Wales home. Italy were desperately poor against England and were frankly blown away at Twickenham. They will be stronger at home and I expect a close game. Parisse was the sole Italian player to really make an impact last match. Kris Burton at Outside Half is a weak link for me and you can't see Italy doing anything expect penalties or a forward dominated try. If Wales come out firing from the start with confidence high after the win in Scotland, then I fully expect Wales to avoid more heartache and win in the sunshine even by a narrow margin.

Italy 16 Wales 23.

England v France

The big one and the championship decider. England looked awesome in battering the Italians and Ashton ran riot with 4 tries. He will face a sterner test up front but will welcome the return of Andrew Sheridan to face up against the brutal French scrummage. England otherwise have a very settled side although Lewis Moody continues to be absent. The key battle will be upfront and whoever dominates that sector of the game will take the spoils. I expect lost of penalties so kickers will be critical and England have the edge here. Flood has been the player of the tournament so far for me and his confidence is high. France scrambled to a victory against the Irish but are leaking tries every game. England will rip them open and I fully expect Ashton and Cueto to both run riot especially since Maxime Medard has had to pull out. The recall of Chabal shows France want to mix it up in pack and Clerc and Jauzion will cause problems to England's static midfield duo. France also have the bench but England are on a roll and in the end I expect them to win fairly comfortably this time.

England 26 France 17

Scotland v Ireland

What happened? Scotland who looked so positive in attack and defence against France fell apart against Wales and showed no capability in either area. What was even more worrying for Scotland was the invisibility of their back row. Dan Parks pays the price form one too many weak performance and I welcome the introduction of young Ruaridh Jackson at Fly half is a bold statement. Scotland need steel in their side as they run the risk of sinking from a second in the championship to a wooden spoon decider with Italy, Paterson recalled at full back will stabilize the back line. Mike Blair will be a low risk option at half back with young Jackson, and Bettie and Moray Low will add new vigour to their stuttering pack. For the Irish, the narrow defeat against France will give them renewed confidence. The return of Tommy Bowe is a welcome boost in a lethal threequarter line but I cannot understand the logic of recalling O'Gara and Reddan. Looks like the usual Irish return to their dads army past. The Irish will struggle in the front row and will be evenly matched in the forwards but you have to favour the Irish as Scottish confidence looks shot at the moment.

Scotland 6 Ireland 28

Week 2

The first week went essentially according to the script. The only surprises were Wales running England far closer than anticipated and Italy almost toppling Ireland. Scotland showed their potential by scoring 3 tries against the French. France looked awesome on attack but fragile in defence.

So lets look at how the teams will do in Week 2:

England v Italy

The Italians will be up for this one after their very strong showing against the Irish. Changes at half back should help them get the ball moving quicker for the azzuri but it is yup front where the battle will be won or lost. England did not have it all their own way in Wales. Paul James taught Dan Cole a scrummaging lesson and he may well have a tough time again today. The loss of Sheridan is a big loss and the English second row also look like having a difficult time. At half backs, England dominated the Welsh completely and if they had decent centres - they could be World Cup winners. Why can't England produce good centres? They have a winger factory with Cueto, Ashton, Strettle and Sackey - good enough to grace any teams. The most exciting English centres aren't even English. Hape continues to disappoint and Ricky Flutey is still missing, means England have little strength in depth here. Tate has been tried and failed several times, Anthony Allen does well at club level but is not international class, and Hipkiss has gone backwards. That leaves England with HRH Tindall and slow ponderous back play. What we need is Youngs and Flood working directly with the wingers. That is one of the things that destroyed Wales. Italy need to get their back row in the game with the excellent Parisse and get their rolling maul going to the same effect as they did against Ireland. In the end England to win comfortably.

England 26 Italy 9

Scotland v Wales

Wales have had a disastrous run - 8 straight defeats and it isn't going to change this weekend. The Welsh have a poor record at Murrayfield - just 3 wins in 20 years. Last week the red dragon did far better than I anticipated but the half backs were completely out played and over shadowed by Flood and Youngs. Stephan Jones has paid the price but the ponderous, slow, over-rated Philips survives and that won't help Wales. Roberts was anonymous last week playing most of the game on the wing. hook didn't work at full back and is a high risk at 10. Byrne is out of form but at least should stabilize at the back. I would have liked to see Wales go with the Scarlets pairing of Knowle and Preistland, both exciting runners and prospects for the future. Expect both to be on 2nd half. Wales looked strong in the pack despite Craig Mitchell being destroyed by Sheridan. Paul James is one of the best loose head scrummagers and the Scottish front row will have another torrid time. Scotland looked exciting in Paris but were completely annihilated in the scrums with Murray and Jacobsen absolutely destroyed by the French props. The second row and back row battles will be key. Bradley Davies was very exciting for Wales as ball carrier with Lydiate and Warburton also looking great for the future. Scotland's Barclay and Brown are a match for anyone in back row and Kellock will want to win at home. It will depend who dominates possession and how good the kickers are as there will be lots of penalties. Scotland edge it. Scotland 32 Wales 29

Ireland v France

Lucky Ireland. So many errors in Rome. BoD and D'Arcy made more handling errors in 1 match than they normally do in a whole season. The pack were dominated by Italy and Declan Kidney will need to add belief into his misfiring team. France looked world class. Medard was truly outstanding and the interchangeable scrum halves of Yachvili and Parra give France lots of options. The pack look awesome. The front row can take anyone apart. However, things don't look so good in defence and France leaked three tries in Paris.Expect Ireland's talented back line to do similar damage when they get the ball. Sexton looks cool and controlled and I expect Ireland to bounce back but it will be close. Ireland 19 France 17