Halfway stage in the 2022 Guinness Six Nations and Rugby Raconteur has 5 correct predictions from the 6 matches held to date. One of the striking areas has been the influence of having full crowds back at every match. Last year, rugby raconteur chose to not comment as in my eyes the whole idea of playing matches with no crowd was utterly pointless.
The Six Nations is all about the experience. The one-eyed home crowds, the fun and anticipation of travelling away. The full crowds have definitely brought the tournament to life with only one away win so in the opening two rounds.
A look at the long-term statistics shows us that since the inception of the 6 nations in 2000, 10 out of the 16 championships (62.5%) have been won by a team with ‘home advantage’ - that is playing 3 home ties as opposed 2 home ties each year. Perhaps more strikingly, on the 8 occasions a ‘Grand Slam’ (a side winning all 5 of their games) has been won, 6 of these have been by a side with ‘home advantage’ (75%).
In terms of overall games 61% of been won by the home side. England dominate with 84% home victories whilst given there are only 39% of matches won by the away side - Ireland have the best record achieving 54% away wins since 2000.
France came into the tournament as favourites and underlined that status with a spellbinding win over Ireland in Paris. The game was billed as a potential title decider and the pulsating contest did not disappoint. Antoine Dupont’s superb try set the tone and French physicality, intensity and speed of ball was, at times, off the scale to the delight of a raucous Stade de France crowd. Fabien Galthie’s formidable hosts are on a steady upward curve and marching relentlessly towards next year’s home World Cup. They are now undoubtedly the team to beat as they attempt to end a 12-year wait for championship glory.
Italy Under-20s made history on Friday by defeating England for the first time. There was no such joy for their senior counterparts, whose inclusion in the Six Nations continues to be the subject of much scrutiny. The Azzurri have now lost a remarkable 34 championship matches in a row, dating back to 2015. Eddie Jones’ much-changed England healed some wounds from their opening-day setback against Scotland but, in truth, a routine 33-0 win in Rome was entirely predictable. Far too many matches involving the Italians are relative non-events.
With three Rounds to go – the competition is still open to a late surge by any team. Let’s see how I see the key games in Round 3
SCOTLAND v FRANCE
Scotland had everything going for them ahead of their trip to Wales, having claimed a stirring Calcutta Cup victory and facing a team dismantled by Ireland seven days earlier. The Scots had not won in Cardiff since 2002, yet they were clear favourites to pile more Six Nations misery on the defending champions. Gregor Townsend’s side, though, failed to nail key moments and fly-half Finn Russell’s yellow card 12 minutes from time cost them dearly. Two of their last three games are against France and Ireland, so they have now got it all to do to stop their campaign from fizzling out.
What started as a promising season, Strength in depth in every position, a full squad to pick from, a team so settled it almost picks itself, and the hope to kick on from last year’s fine finish to the reality of life in the Six nations.
A less than convincing victory against the English followed by a callow capitulation against a Welsh side robbed of some of their best talent. Injuries to their key players Sutherland, Gray and Redpath, established players not rising to the occasion and suddenly that pool of talent looks more like a puddle.
Perhaps, as in life, I err on the side of pessimism but it’s already beginning to look like another false dawn. The French backs are powerful, and I do think they will also edge it in the forwards.
Scotland’s ‘Bam’ squad failed to materialise 2 weeks ago and the back up of Keble and Berghan coming into the mix concerns me. Meanwhile in the 2nd row, Gilchrist has been workmanlike, nothing more. Gray a tacklebot with no go forward gear now injured has no one champing at the bit to replace him. A back row shorn of Ritchie and a Hamish Watson still short of form will frighten no one.
In this season’s Six Nations, France is the only side to kick the ball over 2 kilometres – 2,260m to be precise. That’s nearly a full kilometre more than Ireland and still comfortably more than Scotland who have the second highest tally for this stat (1,907m). This is a continuation of what brought Les Bleus success against New Zealand in the Autumn. While the attention focused on Romain Ntamack running from behind his own line (and Scotland do still need to be wary of the visitor’s talent for improvisation) it was 944 kicking metres – nearly 200 more than the All Blacks – that really put France in a position to win that epic match.
Scotland will need their own kicking game to be virtually flawless if they are going to win the contest in this area. While the French have spread their gains, with 8 different backs having kicked 50+ metres so far, Scotland are heavily reliant on Finn Russell and Stuart Hogg. Ali Price demonstrated over the summer what a weapon his box kicking game can be, but he seems to have been deferring to his half back partner so far in the Six Nations. Antoine Dupont and Maxime Lucu have 789m of kicks under their belts, but Price and Ben White have only combined for 250m. A victorious Scottish performance on Saturday probably needs a bigger contribution from their Lions’ scrum half.
Gregor Townsend has made three changes to his Scotland team – all in the pack – to face France this Saturday at Murrayfield following the round two Guinness Six Nations defeat away to Wales on February 12. Rory Darge will make his first start for the Scots when he takes over at blindside, with Sam Skinner switching to lock following the loss to injury of Jonny Gray.
There are also changes at tighthead and No8. Zander Fagerson comes into the front row in place of the benched WP Nel while his brother Matt Fagerson is replaced in the Scotland back row by Magnus Bradbury, who is starting his first game for Scotland since 2020.
In the replacements, Oli Kebble is included after joining the squad this week. Jamie Hodgson and Nick Haining will also be aiming to make their first Scotland appearances in this year’s Six Nations off the bench. Mark Bennett also makes his return to a Scotland squad for the first time since 2018.
Fabien Galthie has made one change to his France team to take on Scotland this Saturday at Murrayfield following the round two Guinness Six Nations win at home to Ireland in Paris on February 12.
Left wing Gabin Villiere, one of the stars of the Six Nations tournament so far with his try-scoring exploits, has dropped out of the France selection due to injury and his No11 jersey will be filled by Yoram Moefana, who switches over from midfield where the fit-again Jonathan Danty has been recalled to inside centre.
The French, who are the only team with two wins from two so far, have named the same bench that they selected for the victory against Ireland.
A Scotland win on Saturday would be their third in a row against France in the Six Nations. This would be the first time the dark blues have managed three on the bounce against anyone other than Italy in this competition.
After consecutive home wins over Italy and Ireland, the French must dig out their passports and make the trip to Edinburgh, where they face a different kind of rugby threat: Murrayfield.
France have lost four out of five of their most recent meetings with Townsend’s side and to make matters worse, they must play them this time at their riotous home ground where they will be bombarded with passionate Scottish voices for the duration.
To side-step this potential banana skin, the French must start fast and remain at the same levels of intensity for the whole 80 minutes.
They can’t afford to be slow out of the blocks and fall behind early like they did against Italy.
They also can’t afford to ease into the second half like they did against Ireland, this could have cost them the game.
Fabien Galthie’s men must be relentless in defence to suffocate the Scottish backline, they lack ball carriers among their forwards so attention must be on Finn Russell and company.
With any luck, they’ll be able to ride out the Scottish storm of noise and continue their journey to a Grand Slam, but the men in blue are not an obstacle you can ignore (even after a loss to Wales)
France will continue their momentum with a narrow win in the Scottish Capital.
Scotland 19 France 23
ENGLAND v WALES
England bounced back from their shattering collapse against Scotland by outclassing Italy 33-0 at the Stadio Olimpico. The team showed a ruthless streak
By delivering a five-try rout orchestrated by man of the match Marcus Smith.
They come home to Twickenham full of confidence as they face down Wayne Pivac’s Wales who will feel emboldened after their unexpected win over Scotland.
Wales rose to the challenge to beat Scotland with a performance showing guts, determination, pride, and passion. It was a delight to see. The Cardiff crowd helped carry them home and whilst they might have a combined age of 65, Dan Biggar and Jonathan Davies proved once again their unremitting commitment to the cause. Both players celebrated 100th Test match appearances for Wales and the British and Irish Lions in style, with captain Biggar defying a knee issue to kick 15 points, including a match-winning drop-goal, and centre Davies making two critical late tackles after going on as a substitute when the Scots were pressing relentlessly.
To quote Will Greenwood’s famous commentary in the Wales v Fiji World Cup defeat – “now is the time for Wales to dig deep. The fizzy lager on a Wednesday night in Bridgend have they avoided it”. Wales papered over the cracks in the WRU’s creaking structure and continued to defy the regional form books with a strong performance earning a well-deserved victory.
Dan Biggar has for so long been every coach’s dream: a fly-half who understands his role and for Wales has so often been the catalyst for his team being greater than the sum of its parts. It is noticeable wherever Biggar has moved, or whenever there has been a coaching change in the team in which he is playing, that Biggar’s game changes too. He does pass rapidly and accurately if that is what the game-plan requires. He will kick the ball with accuracy and resolution if that is what the game-plan requires. He can do it all – and he has so often shown a deep understanding of the game which has more than made up for his lack of twinkle-toed steps or top-end acceleration.
Eddie Jones had recalled the Courtney Lawes and Manu Tuilagi to his starting England XV to face Wales this Saturday, the inclusion of the fit-again duo being two of four changes made to the team that began the Guinness Six Nations round two win over Italy on February 13. However, in a late twist today, England have been dealt a massive blow less than 48 hours out from their crucial match versus Wales on Saturday as it has been confirmed that Manu Tuilagi will now not take any part in the match.
The Sale midfielder had been chosen as the England No12 when Eddie Jones named his team at 11:30am on Thursday but he was scratched from the side at 7:45pm that evening, resulting in the recall of the axed Joe Marchant to the squad.
The head coach had made six alterations to his starting team going into that match in Rome after losing to Scotland and he has now shaken up his selection again for this weekend’s round three game at home against the Welsh at Twickenham.
Lawes missed the opening two matches of the Six Nations due to a concussion sustained when playing for Northampton in the Champions Cup last month.
Nick Isiekwe drops to the bench in place of Ollie Chessum. Tom Curry, who had skippered the team in the opening two rounds, has given the captaincy back to Lawes, whose start at blindside will see Maro Itoje switch from flanker to lock.
Elsewhere, Luke Cowan-Dickie and Kyle Sinckler are chosen in the front row in place of Jamie George and Will Stuart. A major surprise, however, was Harry Randall being retained as the starting No9. Veteran Ben Youngs was expected to take the jersey back having been on the bench in Rome where he equalled Jason Leonard’s record of 114 caps in England’s 33-0 win away to Italy.
The big shock of the weekend’s selections sees Wales boss Wayne Pivac has left out wing Louis Rees-Zammit and recalled number eight Taulupe Faletau for Saturday’s Guinness Six Nations clash against England.
Rees-Zammit is replaced by a fit-again Josh Adams, with Alex Cuthbert retained on the other wing and set to win his 50th cap.
Faletau makes his first Wales appearance for 11 months, having proved his fitness following a long-term ankle injury by playing in Bath’s last two Gallagher Premiership matches against Wasps and Leicester.
He returns in a reshaped back-row, with Ross Moriarty switching to blindside flanker and Taine Basham lining up at openside. Jac Morgan, who made his Test debut against Scotland 12 days ago, is on the bench.
Pivac has retained Owen Watkin and Nick Tompkins as his centre combination, while there are call-ups among the replacements for Osprey’s fly-half Gareth Anscombe, Scarlets scrum-half Kieran Hardy and Dragons prop Leon Brown.
Players with English clubs are released back to them if they are not involved in a Wales matchday 23, so Gloucester star Rees-Zammit will be available for the Premiership appointment with Leicester on Saturday.
He is one of the most exciting players in European rugby, collecting four tries during last season’s Six Nations and being picked for the British and Irish Lions’ South Africa tour.
The 21-year-old has carved out a reputation for scoring dazzling solo tries, which he underlined with a breath-taking touchdown against Fiji during this season’s Autumn Nations Series.
But Cuthbert shone against Scotland, while Adams, who missed that game due to a calf muscle problem, has repeatedly excelled for Wales, with 17 tries in 36 Tests.
Faletau’s most recent Wales outing was against France in the final game of last season’s Six Nations tournament.
Wales have not beaten England in the Six Nations at Twickenham since 2012, and both teams need a victory to keep alive their title aspirations.
This will be close. Both teams are going through a transitional phase, with Wales also badly hit by injuries. Neither side is showing any sort of form. But if there's one game that can inspire players to up their game, to go above and beyond, it is England against Wales - a rivalry that dates back 141 years!
Neither rival can afford another loss if they want to stay in the hunt for championship glory, with both having opened the 2022 tournament with defeats before bouncing back in round two.
England impressed for 40 minutes against Italy, but the second half was mostly a notably disjointed affair that increased concerns over how far they currently are off the planet’s top teams with the World Cup looming large in France next year.
Marcus Smith was excellent again in Rome and formed a great axis with the electric Randall and Dombrandt, but it remains to be seen if that trio will remain intact here with Jones likely to turn back to the greater experience offered by the likes of Ben Youngs.
Much will depend on Smith again both in an attacking sense and from the tee, but he always seems to rise to the occasion completely unfazed.
Wales will no doubt battle valiantly once more, but they are hamstrung by the players unavailable.
England to win an attritional contest by seven points.
England 21 Wales 14
IRELAND V ITALY
The final game of the weekend sees Italy make the trip to Dublin to face a wounded Ireland.
Irish Grand Slam dreams may be over following defeat in Paris, but there is still a trophy to play for, starting with Sunday's 2022 Guinness Six Nations match against Italy.
The Azzurri are the tournament whipping-boys, and should France slip up this weekend against Scotland, points difference could be key in the outcome, especially as Les Bleus have already played the Italians.
So far Ireland have played two, won one and lost one, hammering Wales before narrowly losing to France. Italy, meanwhile, have suffered two heavy defeats - one to France and the other a shut-out defeat against England in Rome.
With plenty of talk about Italy's position in the tournament and whether they are deserving of their slot, the visitors will be desperate to avoid a humbling.
Leinster pair James Lowe and Jimmy O'Brien have been added to the Ireland squad.
Lowe will be looking to add to his nine caps to date having missed the opening two rounds through injury.
The 29-year-old returned to action in the United Rugby Championship at the weekend as Leinster beat Ospreys 29-7.
Uncapped O'Brien also played in the victory and will be hoping to make his Ireland bow at the Aviva Stadium.
Hooker Ronan Kelleher has been ruled out of the remainder of the Six Nations due to a shoulder issue.
Head coach Andy Farrell expects captain Johnny Sexton to be fit for the Italy clash.
A win for Italy is nearly impossible and an unrealistic aim. Instead, they simply need to keep fighting and put up a solid fight against Andy Farrell’s side.
Paolo Garbisi also needs to step up and orchestrate the Azzurri attack more effectively following a terrible outing versus England.
To win back those fans who would be happy to see them replaced, they must provide excitement and a challenge for Ireland, who are backed to walk all over the team coached by Kieran Crowley.
The Italian youngsters must step up and play at a level beyond what is expected for players of their experience
Italy has a point to prove after so much talk of South Africa replacing them in the Six Nations. However, their losing run will not end in Dublin.
Ireland 45 Italy 16
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