After all the waiting and build-up – it’s now time for the rubber to hit the road in the 2022 Guinness Six Nations. The first weekend sees three opening encounters which could seal the fate of two of the teams at this early stage. Coming back from an opening defeat is extremely challenging given the tight schedule ahead of them. A winning start is also crucial to morale and momentum.
Who will triumph in Round 1? Let your Rugby raconteur be your guide to the weekend’s encounters:
Ireland v Wales
Ireland has the perfect opening fixture draw at home as they welcome Wales to the Aviva Stadium in Dublin. They will be looking to avenge last year’s catastrophe in Cardiff where Peter O’Mahony made unwanted history by becoming the first Irishman to be sent off in the Guinness Six Nations when he made contact with the head of Tomas Francis trying to clear out a ruck on 13 minutes, giving referee Wayne Barnes no option but to brandish a red card.
Wales saw out the courageous Irish challenge from the remaining 14 men before eventually running out 21-16 winners with a strong second half showing.
Ireland followed up the defeat in Cardiff losing at home to France and this rocky start led to a seriously under whelming Six Nations Championship for Andy Farrell’s side. The early losses effectively knocked the Irish out of Championship contention, rendering their final three wins as dead rubbers.
This time, Ireland come into the game as overwhelming favourites with the bookies offering 1/10 on for a home victory with a 14 point minimum spread. And why not! Ireland’s Autumn form has been very strong and this has carried forward with the provincial sides in both URC and Champions Cup.
Against this background, Andy Farrell has named a strong and experienced side with few surprises. Connacht winger Mack Hansen will make his Ireland debut following a string of standout displays for the province.
The Australia-born 23-year-old, whose mother is Irish, has been selected on the left flank in place of the injured James Lowe
Tadhg Beirne will start in the second row ahead of Iain Henderson in the only other change to the team which began November’s 29-20 win over New Zealand.
Ulster captain Henderson has not played since suffering an ankle issue playing for his province on December 17 and does not make Andy Farrell’s 23-man selection.
Centre Robbie Henshaw has also been left out of the matchday squad, with fellow British and Irish Lion Bundee Aki given the nodded to partner Garry Ringrose in midfield.
Ulster centre James Hume has been included on the bench ahead of Henshaw. He and fellow replacement Dan Sheehan could make championship debuts.
Influential fly-half Johnny Sexton will once more captain his country on the occasion of his 102nd cap, with Jamison Gibson-Park again preferred to Conor Murray at scrum-half.
Full-back Hugo Keenan – starting his 17th consecutive Test match – and right wing Andrew Conway complete the backs.
Farrell’s forward pack has a familiar look to it, with Munster second-rower Beirne the only non-Leinster player.
Vice-captain James Ryan, who has not played for 10 weeks amid hamstring troubles, will partner Beirne in the lock positions, while props Andrew Porter and Tadhg Furlong have been selected either side of hooker Ronan Kelleher in an established front row.
Jack Conan will line up at number eight, sandwiched between blindside flanker Caelan Doris and openside Josh van der Flier.
Hume, Sheehan and Murray are joined on the bench by forwards Cian Healy, Finlay Bealham, Ryan Baird, Peter O’Mahony and fly-half Joey Carbery.
What of their opponents – Wales? The good news for Wayne Pivac is that no supporter with red tinted glasses is expecting victory. Wales haven’t won in the Six Nations in Dublin since 2012 and the focus is likely to be more on keeping the score respectable with a losing bonus point being probably the best prize Wales can (vainly) hope for.
Wayne Pivac has been struggling with selections given his injury situation and has named a surprising team with flying winger Josh Adams named at outside centre.
Adams, who has won 35 caps and was top try-scorer at the 2019 World Cup, would have featured there in the Autumn Nations Series appointment with Fiji this season, but he suffered an injury during the warm-up and did not start.
The recent hamstring injury picked up by Uilisi Halaholo has added to the long term absences of the backbone of the recent Welsh sides with Alun Wyn-Jones, Josh Navidi, George North, Ken Owens, Leigh Halfpenny, Taulupe
Adams is joined with Nick Tompkins in the centres with Johnny McNicholl recalled on the wing to form a strong back three with bomb defuser Liam Williams and the exciting Louis Rees-Zammit.
LRZ has been especially impressive with his finishing lately for Gloucester and if Wales can get the ball in his hands with some space then they still an attacking edge to worry Ireland.
Dan Biggar is named as captain and will be joined at half back by Tomos Williams.
In the pack, Wyn Jones is recalled at loose head prop and forms an experienced front row with Ryan Elias and Thomas Francis.
Adam Beard and Will Rowlands form the engine room in 2nd row with Ellis Jenkins, Taine Basham and Aaron Wainwright forming a strong back row who are all masters of the jackal and turnover.
The big worry is where are the ball carriers. Ross Moriarty is an important option off the bench and poised to win his 50th cap, with Gareth Thomas, Dewi Lake and Dillon Lewis the front row change and Seb Davies the other forward option with Callum Sheedy, Gareth Davies and Owen Watkin the back replacements. Osprey Lake is the only uncapped player in the team.
But there is no place in the matchday 23 for centre Jonathan Davies, who has made 99 Test match appearances for Wales and the British and Irish Lions.
Wales haven’t won in Dublin since 2012 and they always somehow seem to bring out the best in Ireland. Wales have claimed a solitary victory from their last seven visits to the Aviva Stadium, and they will encounter a cock-a-hoop Ireland side fresh from toppling New Zealand just over two months ago.
The game will be won or lost in the forwards. Wales certainly have not been convincing in set pieces and will struggle for ball. I think Wales have missed a trick not adding Shane Lewis-Hughes and Jim Botham to their squad as both were impressive last week against Leinster and their defensive qualities may well have been a better option against a massively strong Irish pack. Ireland will want to grind out penalties and will want to run at Adams and Tompkins as an untried and untested centre pairing.
Ireland is still shell-shocked from their loss in Cardiff in 2021 and will want to put the record straight. As the Six Nations’ defending champions, Wales come into this Test with plenty of pride and passion. Although they will be competitive, especially during the early exchanges, Ireland will gain the upper hand as the match progresses and will prove too strong in the end and Wales will face a real thumping.
Ireland win at a cantor..
Ireland 40 Wales 17
Scotland v England
The 129th Calcutta Cup match in Edinburgh has rugby supporters of all persuasions licking their lips with anticipation. The Calcutta Cup was first competed for in 1879, Scotland has won it 41 times and England 71, with 16 ties.
Scotland were superb last year at Twickenham when they finally broke their 37 year winless streak at HQ running out deserved winners in a tight 11-6 victory. Scotland’s recent Calcutta Cup form is rather better than history reflects with them holding the trophy 3 times in the past four encounters.
The return of spectators to Murrayfield could prove to be a strong advantage to Scotland’s chance of continuing that winning trend in 2022. The Scottish supporters have no love lost for the “Auld enemy” and Edinburgh will be a cauldron of nationalist fervour hoping to send proud Edwards Jones’s army home to think again.
Scotland’s fighting spirit and ever-improving brand of attacking rugby is becoming somewhat of an X-factor in the tournament while England are a somewhat unknown quantity at the moment due to the sweeping changes since the last Six Nations.
Gregor Townsend has named his team to face England that contains three changes from the XV that started the closing Autumn Nations Series win over Japan at Murrayfield eleven weeks ago.
After missing out on the Autumn Nations Series matches through injury, Exeter Chiefs’ Jonny Gray makes his return to the starting line up for the first time since March 2021 when he played against Ireland. He is joined by Edinburgh’s Grant Gilchrist in the second-row, who will be one appearance away from reaching 50 caps after stepping out against England.
He takes over from Scott Cummings in the second row.
Elsewhere, Worcester prop Rory Sutherland is named after playing in all of last year’s Six Nations matches, taking over the unavailable Jamie Bhatti, while Matt Fagerson comes into the back row at the expense of Josh Bayliss. Elsewhere, the XV is as you were from last November.
Edinburgh duo Jamie Ritchie and Hamish Watson will combine with Matt Fagerson from Glasgow Warriors in the back-row.
Racing 92’s Finn Russell and Glasgow Warrior Ali Price will partner each other at nine and 10 respectively for the fourth consecutive game, while Worcester’s Duhan van der Merwe starts on the wing. Darcy Graham will be on the opposite flank following impressive form with Edinburgh which sees them currently top the United Rugby Championship table.
Gloucester’s Chris Harris and Glasgow’s Sam Johnson are set to combine in the centre once again, with captain Stuart Hogg starting at full-back in his ninth Calcutta Cup match.
On the bench, London Irish scrum-half Ben White will have the opportunity to make his Scotland debut with Edinburgh’s Blair Kinghorn and Glasgow’s Sione Tuipulotu other options in the backs.
Also in the replacements, Magnus Bradbury could make his first appearance for Scotland since 2020 with Sam Skinner, WP Nel, Pierre Schoeman and Stuart McInally all named on the bench.
For England – this is always a tough fixture. 7C temperatures, 50% probability of rain and strong west south-west winds will make it a difficult place to pay open running rugby. After a disastrous 2021 campaign, the Jones has decided to freshen up the squad as they attempt to regain the title they last won in 2020. Expectations are always high in the England camp and they cannot afford to repeat the dreadful 2021 Championship where they fell well below the required standards as they equalled their worst-ever championship finish in 5th place.
If England are to challenge for the title, then a victory over Scotland in their opening game is paramount. That is easier said than done, given the Scots’ victory at Twickenham last year and how Gregor Townsend has improved the quality of his Scottish squad over recent years, but it is by no means not an impossible dream.
Eddie Jones has picked a young exciting team for the trip to Murrayfield. that shows seven changes from the XV that started the Autumn Nations Series finale win over South Africa at Twickenham eleven weeks ago.
The big headline is the selection of Tom Curry as Captain. Lawes has struggled to overcome a concussion suffered last month while on European duty for his club Northampton, while regular skipper Owen Farrell hasn’t played any rugby since the mid-series win over Australia and has since been ruled out of the entire championship following a second ankle operation.
Curry is names at openside flanker and is the only back row survivor from the Springbok encounter with Lewis Ludlam at blindside flanker and Sam Simmonds is their number eight.
International veteran Ben Youngs is at scrum-half with the exciting Marcus Smith outside him at 10 while Saracens’ Elliot Daly is a shock pick at outside centre forming a new partnership with Henry Slade.
Joe Marchant has returned to the line-up after completing Covid isolation protocols at left wing, with Max Malins on the right and the adventurous Freddie Steward at full-back.
Up front, Kyle Sinckler sand Ellis Genge start at props with Luke Cowan-Dickie given the nod over Jamie George at hooker. Maro Itoje and Nick Isiekwe the locks. Isiekwe takes over at second row for Jonny Hill, whose lower leg/high ankle stress fracture left him unavailable.
Jamie George, Joe Marler, Will Stuart, Charlie Ewels, Alex Dombrandt, Harry Randall, George Ford and Jack Nowell are the replacements.
Eyebrows may be raised that the in-form Alex Dombrandt is not starting but Simmonds has been a strong performer all season and deserves the chance after being cruelly overlooked in past Jones’ teams line-ups.
Marcus Smith has bene sensational this season at 10 and gets the nod over George Ford who is recalled to the bench and can expect to have to face a tough last 20 minutes in Edinburgh.
Daley is a surprise at centre and Scotland will want to challenge him. England’s scrum should be strong and stable with Genge and Sinkler whilst Cowen-Dickie is a great leader at the maul and a good ball carrier.
Steward, Malins, Smith, Marchant and Isiekwe are all making their first appearances in Scotland and Jones has to hope they won’t be overwhelmed by the raucous anti-English crowd sentiment. Murrayfield can be a horrible place to make mistakes.
With the English squad hampered by injury and with a partisan Murrayfield crowd powering Scottish emotion, this Six Nations match sees the home team as marginal favourites.
While a lot of attention on the #10's, it might be just be the Fullbacks who decide this Kickfest.
In naming a side with a combined total of 562 Scotland caps Gregor Townsend has picked a Calcutta Cup team long on experience but, more importantly, one which has learned how to win big games.
Scotland have every reason to feel confident rather than nervous. They have a near full strength team, playing at home, their supporters are allowed to watch the game, preparations have been ok and you have a coach who selects on form.
England meanwhile are selecting people on past reputation, out of position or in defiance of logic (Ben Youngs - too slow, Daly/Slade - no bulk in the centres, wingers out of position, not starting Dombrandt. They have been decimated by injuries and English preparations have been an absolute nightmare
I reckon it will be a fast and exciting game, one that will be tight and one that will be decided on a few slim margins, but I have a good feeling about this and I’m calling Scotland by one score
Scotland 19 England 17
France v Italy
The final game on Sunday sees the reborn Les Bleus at home again facing Italy. As Rugby Raconteur goes to press – neither team has been announced but Fabien has given some indications by releasing 14 players back to their clubs this weekend.
France have a near perfect campaign: two games at home, two away and a grand finale versus England in Paris which allows them the blend of peak and trough to build their performances throughout the tournament.
There’s no doubt whatsoever that France have the firepower to score against any defence in the world, but question marks remain over their scrummage and their temperament.
Make no mistake about it, this is a pivotal year for France and they cannot afford anything but a clean sweep.
France coach Fabien Galthie has trimmed his squad down to 28 players ahead of the match against Italy on Sunday, releasing 14 players back to the Top 14.
There are several experienced players thus not in contention for the tournament opener against Italy, with perhaps the most surprising release that of Racing centre Virimi Vakatawa.
The released players are a 50-50 mix of forwards and backs, including four back-row players: Paul Boudehent, Ibrahim Diallo, Yoan Tanga and Sekou Macalou, two locks: Thomas Lavault and Florian Verhaege, and prop Jérôme Rey.
In the backs, three wings: Mathis Lebel, Jules Favre and Donovan Taofifenua, centres Vakatawa and Tani Vili, half-back Antoine Hastoy and utility back Brice Dulin are released.
Since the organisers brought in four points for a win and also the addition of try/losing bonus-points, Italy have claimed a grand total of one competition point, way back in 2018. It came in an extremely narrow 29-27 defeat to Scotland and since then their performances have been dreadful.
It was no different in 2021 as they were dominated in pretty much every match they played. It was tough to watch as a neutral so it’s hard to imagine what it has been like for an Italian supporter over the past few years.
A real issue for Italy over recent seasons has been the decline in their forward play. Gone are the days of Martin Castrogiovanni and Sergio Parisse – albeit the latter is determined to have one final send off – who kept scores close and sometimes edged them over the line. The irony is that they are now starting to produce talented backs, who are being hampered by a lack of quality ball from their pack.
Crowley needs to find the players in the forwards which can compete at this level, especially in the front five. He can rely on back-row trio Sebastian Negri, Braam Steyn and Michele Lamaro to produce consistent high level displays, but the head coach will want more from Zebre Parma props Danilo Fischetti and Giosue Zilocchi, who will hopefully give Negri, Braam and Lamaro the platform to carry across the gain line.
Both Fischetti and Zilocchi have shown glimpses of their quality but not on a consistent basis and, at the age or 24 and 25 respectively, this could be the year which decides whether they are, quite frankly, good enough for Test rugby.
Someone who does have that international class is Paolo Garbisi, with the 21-year-old already an established player in the team. As intimated, we haven’t necessarily seen the best of him – or his talented backline colleagues – due to the pack’s struggles, but give Garbisi front foot ball and watch him thrive.
France come off the back of 4 straight victories and Italy too come to the game on the back of a rare win with a narrow 17-10 victory over Uruguay at Rome in November.
Plenty of credit must go to France, who looked a vastly improved side from their struggles at the Rugby World Cup. Charles Ollivon, who is already looking calm and assured in his role as captain; was excellent in his new role as captain, whilst Gregory Alldritt and Bernard Le Roux shone alongside him as leaders by example in the pack.
The French half backs was excellent. Antoine Duponte and Romain Ntamack are two high quality players and were a great blend with the latter player achieving a 100% goal kick accuracy. They are different and, at the same time, complementary. In the kicking-game at a time when there was no domination, the animation between them was good and France’s exciting and powerful back line had no trouble shutting down England defensively, in addition to their obvious attacking ability.
At the same time, France have room for improvement. This match will give them plenty of material to work with in all areas and sectors of the game. They can especially be more effective in game management.
The truth is that France caused their own trouble in the second half. The first part of their match was pretty solid, but it was when they started to make substitutions, that the team was destabilized. At 24-0, they chose to make changes and there they lost their way almost letting England back into the match. They need to win comfortably and dreams of a first championship since 2010 could become a realty!
To be frank, Italy will do well to get within 10 points of any team they face, but if they can then it will be marked down as progress.
This match has forgone conclusion written all over it. In years gone by, you could make an argument for France doing a France and imploding, but not now. Not this team. Not with Shaun Edwards marshalling the defence.
France will run out comfortable winners with a bonus point.
France 50 Italy 10
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