Week 1 predictions were good for Rugby Raconteur with 3 correct results and close estimates on the spread – 22 versus predicted 23 in Ireland game, 3 versus the predicted 2 in Scotland game and 27 versus predicted 40 in France game. The second round is rapidly upon us, and your correspondent will be hoping to keep up his 100% record. Let’s see how we see the games in round 2:
Wales v Scotland
First game up sees Gregor Townsend’s Scotland visit Cardiff – a city they haven’t won in since 2002 - twenty years of pain!
For Wales - OMG – where do you start? If 29-7 does not sound quite an obliteration, the truth is that 50 points would have not flattered the Irish. Wales were so awful in Dublin that the final score line did not reflect the total dominance of Ireland in all facets of the game. Wales were clueless in attack, disorganised in defence and it was men against boys in Dublin.
This is crunch time for Pivac-19. He was a poor choice as coach and the noose is rapidly tightening around his neck as Wales go from bad to worse after a poor Autumn. There was a distinct lack of clarity in what they were trying to achieve on Saturday. Moving Josh Adams to centre was bizarre and combining him with a player that has had his defensive issues at Test level in Nick Tompkins was not the wisest decision. As a result, Ireland continually exploited that midfield channel and found holes in the Welsh threequarters. To be perfectly honest, they were fortunate to not ship 50 points and were thankful it was ‘only’ a 22-point defeat in the end.
Looking at the match stats – it’s incredibly hard to see any positivity. In defence – 22 missed tackles. That would never have happened in a Shaun Edwards coached team. Ill-discipline continues to also plague Wales with 14 penalties and one yellow card conceded in the game. Add to that a misfiring line out with only a 66% success rate, 75% maul success, 19 turnovers conceded, and 83% scrum success and you start to paint a picture of Wales’s issues. If you cannot win your set pieces, and the basics of forward work then you have no chance as the result demonstrated.
The strange and ridiculous decision to play Josh Adams in the centre was a disaster. He gave away two offside penalties and a ridiculous yellow card. Ireland targeted him as a weak link from the very start. When you have players like Scott Williams, Owen Watkin, and Jonathan Davies available only a deluded idiot would play a winger in the centres in. game of this significance.
The gloves are off and Pivac and his coaching team must be dismissed as soon as possible. I see no optimism and given Italy’s encouraging performance in Paris – Wales face the risk of a complete humiliation in the championship with the likelihood of five defeats a distinct possibility.
It was doubly hard for Welsh supporters as their Under 20 team were also completely humiliated losing 53-5 to their Irish counterparts. The lack of talent coming through in Wales is frightening and it’s not really a surprise when the governing body – choses to open a hotel rather than invest in their regional sides and academies.
Analysis of the make-up of the Welsh regions reveal little over 50 per cent of the squad’s playing experience has been with that region, a fall of around 25 per cent in the last decade. In comparison, Leinster’s average is 89 per cent.
The result is that the days when the Wales national side covered over the cracks in the Welsh system appear to be over, at least in the short term.
At least (Saint) Warren Gatland had the ability to hire decent coaches and work on a game plan with the talent at his disposal. Wayne Pivac’s ineptitude hits new depths and with Jonathan Humphries coaching the forwards and Stephen Jones handling the backs it’s no wonder Wales are as poor as they are.
Against this background it’s no surprise that an under-pressure Wayne Pivac has made three changes to the side that was soundly beaten in Dublin.
Josh Adams has been ruled out with a calf injury which is probably a good thing as the Welsh supporters will not subject to a reprise of his abject performance at centre. Alex Cuthbert replaces Johnny McNichol on the wing forming a new look back three with Liam Williams and Louis Rees-Zammit. Williams will be looking to improve after a disappointing display last week.
Owen Watkin will start at outside centre and will link up with Nick Tompkins in yet another new look centre combination. It is disappointing that the game changing Uilisi Halaholo has not yet recovered from his hamstring strain and so cannot make it to the match day 23.
In the pack, Wyn Jones, Ryan Elias and Tomas Francis continue in the front row. Elias can be considered lucky to not be sacrificed for Dewi Lake who remains on the bench.
Adam Beard and Will Rowlands remain in an unchanged 2nd row whilst
The impressive Osprey back row Jac Morgan is selected for his Test debut.
The Brynamman product leads the URC stats in tackles (144) and the most dominant tackles (seven) this season. He is strong over the ball and forms a new look Welsh back row with Ross Moriarty at No.8 with the Dragons No. 8 joining his regional team-mate - the outstanding Taine Basham remaining at 7.
Basham was the one shining light in that forgettable welsh performance and the bulk and power of this new look back row combination is one of the areas will be looking to take the game to Scotland as they search for physicality and balance.
Dan Biggar will earn his 100th cap for Wales as Captain at Outside Half whilst Tomos Williams has seen off the challenge of Gareth Davies to retain the No. 9 jersey. Davies remains the bench cover.
Seb Davies, who was forced to withdraw from the game against Ireland due to back spasms, is joined by Aaron Wainwright in returning to the bench.
Centre Jonathan Davies, who is also named on the bench, will join Biggar in reaching 100 Tests for Wales and the Lions if he features on Saturday. Dewi Lake, Gareth Thomas, Dillon Lewis, form the front row replacements with Bristol Bears Callum Sheedy the remaining back replacement.
Scotland have lost on their last eight Six Nations visits to the Welsh capital, conceding 251 points, but they will head south buoyed by a memorable Calcutta Cup success against England. That, suddenly, feels ominous for Wales.
Gregor Townsend’s men are certainly in the title race after showing superb resilience to defeat the Auld Enemy at Murrayfield. England were the side in control in the first half and, to be honest, for most of the match, but the Scots’ defence, marshalled by Welshman Steve Tandy, was exceptional. They resisted several waves of attack and remained on the back foot in the early stages of the second period. They managed to stay in contention and edge to a harrow victory but make no mistake, they would have lost this match in previous years, which shows how far they have progressed.
They have nothing to feat this weekend and despite losing Flanker Jamie Richie who is a big loss to the Bravehearts. Ritchie has received surgery on a hamstring injury and will sadly be out for the rest of the 2022 Six Nations Championship
Gregor Townsend has named his team making five changes to the side that won the Calcutta Cup last weekend.
There are three changes in the front-row with Pierre Schoeman and WP Nel starting alongside hooker Stuart McInally. The changes reflect the respect that Scotland have for the Welsh scrum which stood up well against Ireland.
Grant Gilchrist will make his 50th appearance for Scotland.
The Edinburgh second row debuted for Scotland against France in 2013 and will lead the team out in Cardiff as vice-captain to complement his achievement.
Exeter Chiefs’ Jonny Gray will partner Gilchrist after making his return to the Scotland line-up in last Saturday’s thrilling 20-17 victory over England to retain the Calcutta Cup.
Exactly 10 years on from his Scotland debut against Wales in Cardiff, captain Stuart Hogg will mark the occasion with his 90th cap for his country in the same stadium.
Gray’s Exeter teammate Sam Skinner will start the match in place of Jamie Ritchie with Hamish Watson on the other flank and retains his place in the back row with Glasgow Warriors’ number eight Matt Fagerson also starting, fresh from his player of the match performance against England.
Glasgow Warriors’ Ali Price and Racing 92’s Finn Russell continue their partnership at 9 and 10 respectively.
There is only one change in the back line with Glasgow Warriors’ centre Sione Tuipulotu set to make his third Scotland appearance at inside centre. He’ll play alongside Gloucester’s Chris Harris, meanwhile Worcester Warriors’ winger Duhan van der Merwe also starts.
Darcy Graham will line up on the other wing at the Principality Stadium following his impressive performance against England.
Glasgow Warriors’ duo Zander Fagerson and George Turner will start the match on the bench alongside Worcester Warriors’ prop Rory Sutherland and Edinburgh Rugby’s Magnus Bradbury.
Glasgow flanker Rory Darge will make his debut for his country if he comes off the bench, following an impressive season so far for the Scotstoun side.
Fresh from a dream debut, scrum-half Ben White is once again an option from the bench along with Edinburgh Rugby’s Blair Kinghorn. Bath Rugby’s Cam Redpath will be aiming for his second Scotland cap after his making his Scotland debut against England last year at Twickenham.
The Scottish changes area a clear sign that they will look to front up and tough it out in the forwards against Wales during the first half. The bench replacements on 50-60 minutes will give them more opportunities to play a more expansive game in the second stanza.
Wales will need to start positively and nail their line out and set piece scrums. If they can retain the ball, then they have a chance to stay in touch.
The combative changes in the back row will add the much-needed physicality to wobble Scotland and Biggar will want to win his centurion game.
Scotland should have enough ball to compete and Duhan Van der Merwe, Finn Russell and Stuart Hogg can breach any defences especially one as porous as Wales have shown in recent matches.
Wales sorely missed their unavailable key players in round one while Scotland look like a team on the rise. They have not won in Cardiff since 2002 but now is good a time as any to end that unwanted record.
My heart says Wales will bounce back whilst my head says Scotland to finally break their Cardiff Hoodoo. Scotland by 4 points.
Wales 19 Scotland 23
France v Ireland
The championship destination will likely be decided in this encounter in Paris. France at home will be a tough prospect but Ireland will come to the game full of confidence after their exhilarating and dominant display against Wales in Dublin.
Les Bleus fulfilled their mission against Italy by winning with a margin Les Bleus of 27 points. This is their biggest margin at home against the Azzuri. The last biggest gap dated from the 2010 Tournament, but all was not perfect. They made a lot of errors in the match and a lot of poor decisions in difficult conditions.
At times France looked feverish and clumsy with a distinct lack of fluidity for long periods. Ill-discipline cost them during the early stages as they conceded 5 penalties in the first 25 minutes but somehow, France won with five tries on the board by accelerating at the end of the match. Antoine Dupont had a poor game by his high standards but a hat-trick from Gabin Villiere paved the way to victory in wet conditions for France.
France will certainly need to show a lot of improvement to keep their Grand Slam and Championship dreams alive.
Fabien Galthié has made two personnel changes to Les Blues starting XV. There is a change at centre, with Bordeaux’s Yoram Moefana coming into the side at 12, replacing the injured Jonathan Danty, with Gael Fickou moving to 13. Moefana who has impressed in the Top 14 this season, replaces centre Jonathan Danty, who is out with an ankle injury, to earn his first Six Nations start.
Moefana was selected on the bench for the Italy match, and he came on when Danty went off. He is not the physical type of centre, but he is an excellent, promising player and has been a force in Bordeaux strong season. It is a bold selection to pick him to start this level of event and the Irish opposing strength will be a tough ask for an inexperienced player.
However, he’s good enough but a lot will be on him, and I would expect Ireland to test him early in the encounter.
François Cros returns in the back row alongside Grégory Alldritt and Anthony Jelonch. The Toulousain replaces Dylan Cretin.
in the second row, the versatile Cameron Woki was again chosen to accompany Paul Willemse. Dupont, Ntamack remain the half backs and the front row of Atonio, Marchand, Baille like the back three “rear triangle” of Jaminet, Penaud, Villière are also retained.
There is also a change on the replacements bench, with Galthie opting for a 6-2 split, with Dylan Cretin dropping to 21 meaning there is no room for Virimi Vakatawa in the matchday 23.
Fabien Galthié preference is to take six forwards (Mauvaka, Gros, Bamba, Taofifenua, Flament, Cretin) and two backs, including the versatile Thomas Ramos.
Continuity in selection is key for the French, who were earmarked as favourites before the competition began, as they face a blistering Irish team on the back of nine consecutive wins.
Saturday’s game at the Stade de France has been described as the crunch game of the tournament with the two most in form teams clashing and the winner one step closer to silverware.
Ireland will travel to Paris in good heart and with confidence of repeating their recent good record in the French capital and continue their winning ways in this year’s competition. Having gone through a short transitional phase under head coach Andy Farrell, 2018 Grand Slam champions Ireland are beginning to look the real deal again after an outstanding autumn, which included glory against New Zealand and the Pivacaust annihilation of Wales last weekend.
The speed and fluidity of Ireland’s passing, their physical presence and strong discipline will certainly cause French coach Fabian Galthie a few sleepless nights this week.
The big news is talismanic outside half Johnny Sexton has been ruled out due to a hamstring injury.
Ireland captain Sexton sustained the injury in training yesterday, which means Joey Carbery starts at fly-half and is partnered by Jamison Gibson-Park at half-back. The out-half is the only change to the side that beat Wales 29-7 last weekend.
It will be Munster fly-half's Carbery's first every start in the Six Nations. The 26-year-old has won 28 caps for his country, starting eight times.
The centre partnership of Bundee Aki and Garry Ringrose continues in midfield.
Hugo Keenan continues at full-back with Andrew Conway, scorer of two tries last Saturday on the right wing. Connacht's Mack Hansen is on the opposite side following his man of the match display on his international debut against Wales.
James Ryan will be the new captain of the side and is joined at lock by Tadhg Beirne. Leinster trio Caelan Doris, Josh van der Flier and Jack Conan form the back row with Andrew Porter, Ronan Kelleher and Tadhg Furlong completing the front-row.
Iain Henderson, Robbie Henshaw, and Jack Carty are added to the replacements for the France clash joining Dan Sheehan, Cian Healy, Finlay Bealham, Peter O’Mahony and Conor Murray.
The loss of Sexton is a massive blow to Irish chances in Paris but a six-day turnaround for France, plus their undercooked performance against Italy, fatigue plus little chance to work on team performance puts them potentially on the back foot against Ireland.
I remain confident that this will be the highest quality game this year in the tournament, and I am looking forward immensely to the confrontation.
Referee Angus Gardner has a reputation for being a bit of a “homer” – favouring the hon=me side and its certainly true that Ireland have only won twice in the five matches he has officiated them. Certainly, discipline for both sides will eb key
Ireland’s game plan should be quite simple. Keep Dupont quiet, harass the French pack into con ceding penalties and things could be good.
If France can control the scrums and the breakdown then they have enough quality in their back line to win this match. Carbury is not Sexton and is still finding his feet at the top level. Ireland’s discipline – not conceding a penalty for 54 minutes was outstanding although Jaco Peyper’s interpretations of the scrum left many scratching their heads. Andrew Porter seemed to really struggle against Tomas Francis but miraculously avoided being penalised however, the French front row can be ferocious with the crowd behind them and winning the set pieces will be key for both teams.
Dupont needs a far stronger game than last week. France had a warmup last week against Italy and will surely be better when the Irish come to town. Ireland barely had to get out of third gear to beat Wales, yet still looked like a well-oiled machine.
Ireland will give it a real effort in one of their toughest tests of Farrell's reign so far. In the end it could come down to infringes most and penalty kicks but expect a few exhilarating tries in the encounter but France, at home, will just have too much firepower for them.
Tough to call. France by 3 points.
Still, one loss is not necessarily the end for Ireland's tournament hopes in what is shaping up to be one of the tightest championships for years.
France 23 Ireland 20
Italy v England
The weekend’s final encounter on Sunday will see England travel to Rome to facing a surprisingly improved Italy.
The Azzuri looked more impressive than might be expected of a side that have now lost their last 33 Six Nations encounters, and their performance was better than the final score suggested, there is plenty to build on ahead of the encounter against England.
The Azzurri gave it a real go and stunned the Stade de France early on when 19-year-old Tommaso Menoncello touched down, but the hosts hit back and eventually emerged with a comfortable win. Kieran Crowley has picked another young gun in his Italy squad for this weekend’s Six Nations clash with England, the Azzurri announcing Andrea Zambonin’s inclusion on Monday.
Zebre Parma second row forward Zambonin, 21, is yet to play for Italy’s senior side, which has been flooded with fresh blood by former New Zealand international Crowley.
Brive prop Pietro Ceccarelli returns to the squad alongside Giacomo Da Re and Zambonin’s Zebre teammates David Sisi and Pierre Bruno.
For England, after defeat in Edinburgh in a game they were controlling, it has once again raised significant questions of Eddie Jones’s decision making and game management.
England have only got themselves to blame. They can only be massively disappointed that they lost after they dominated a lot of the game but didn’t get the points out of the domination. Luke Cowan-Dickie’s brainfart costing a yellow card and penalty try didn’t help but when you are seven points ahead with 17 minutes to go and dominating – England teams typically don’t go on to lose.
Jones’s decision to take off Marcus Smith who had scored all England’s points at 63 minutes was mind-blowingly stupid and we’re still wondering why on earth he did it. Smith’s withdrawal was just one of several bizarre in-game calls from the Red Rose head coach. Lewis Ludlam was another player that was outstanding – arguably the pick of the forwards – ridiculously replaced after a barnstorming effort.
A third error came when England had a lineout on their own five-metre line but decided not to bring on Jamie George when Cowan-Dickie was in the sin-bin. The result? A botched throw from Joe Marler, a penalty at the resultant scrum and Finn Russell‘s match-winning three-pointer.
At the end of the day rugby is a simple game – if you dominate you must get points on the board and you must get enough to be in front of the opposition at the final whistle.
As Rugby raconteur goes to press neither team has been named.
Courtney Lawes remains absent from the squad as he goes through the return-to-play protocols from a concussion that he suffered playing for Northampton against Ulster on January 16. Tom Curry will continue to captain England in Lawes’ absence.
Lawes has begun running and lifting weights but has yet to resume full-contact training. His absence, together with that of Northampton flanker Lewis Ludlam, who suffered a rib injury in the 20-17 defeat to Scotland, has opened the door for the uncapped Chessum to come into the squad, which has 16 forwards including nine front-rowers.
That effectively guarantees Chessum, whom Jones has compared to Lawes for his ability to cover lock and blindside flanker, a spot on the bench at the very least. To start at blindside, Jones could also turn to Nick Isiewke, with Charlie Ewels coming into the second row, or Alex Dombrandt, who is normally a specialist No 8.
England are the only team Italy are yet to beat in the history of the Six Nations and with Eddie Jones' side going through something of a reboot, this is the best chance the Azzurri will ever have of bloodying the English nose - but don't expect it to happen, even in Rome.
A week after his Six Nations debut against one of the game’s best-attacking talents, Marcus Smith will face another strong test in Italy’s Paolo Garbisi. The Italian is younger than Smith but with 14 caps to his name, is more experienced in the international arena. Both players like to bring attacking flair that can unlock even the tightest of defences. We have already seen in this tournament that they can create magic.
However, the deciding factor here may prove to be which 10 can read the flow of the game best and know when to kick to marshal their team around the field effectively. Italy showed a lack of ability to gain territory against the French with only 35%. England had the lion’s share in their game with 62% against the Scots, largely thanks to England’s halfback pairing. This could prove critical on the weekend where another week together means defences will be more organised and in a greater position to punish errors in the opposition’s half.
Both teams had a 100% success rate at scrums last week and near-perfect lineouts too; so, this will be an area both teams will be targeting to try and gain the upper hand. England has the upper hand when it comes to experience. Last week’s starting front row had over 100 caps between them compared to an Italian front row that didn’t even total 50, add in Joe Marler on the bench and England will believe they have the nous to gain an edge here.
The Italian pack will not be a walkover for England though, especially in Rome. We have seen the impact a crowd can have on a game and the Italians are a proud nation who will not roll over easily. They have a coach now who is used to getting the underdog to overperform in Kieran Crowley and the Italians did see the referee’s whistle go their way on occasion as well.
Furthermore, Italy is now showing they can go the full 80 minutes in the set piece. In previous years when the likes of Castrogiovanni have left the field, Italy has struggled. Now though they can stay with teams for the full match as the fitness of players improves along with the depth of their playing squad. Even with last year’s starting tighthead, Marco Riccioni, out injured, Italy is still able to call on some talented players. Zilocchi who helped Italy to their best-ever finish at an Under 20s World Championship in 2017 is a great example.
Discipline will be one of the deciding factors for Sunday’s game. A string of penalties conceded could see the opposition flyhalf continue to knock over penalties and before you know it the game is out of sight. Both teams will be pleased with only conceding 10 penalties last weekend. The yellow card though to Luke Cowan-Dickie may take the shine off somewhat for England.
However, both teams will need to tighten up their work at the breakdown. Referees are being much sharper on the tackler rolling away allowing a fair contest for the ball. Other areas that referees are tightening up on include entering a ruck. This means that players must enter from behind the ball, and they must do so whilst supporting their body weight. Again, this is to ensure a fair contest and player welfare. Supporting players of each team need to make sure they arrive quickly to the breakdown to ensure possession. Moreover, arriving quickly means a faster ball, the ability to play against a less organised defence and more attacking chances.
I expect England to bounce back from their disappointment at Murrayfield and run ragged through a tiring Italian side in the 2nd half and win quite comfortably. Normal service resumed.
Italy 13 England 37
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