Guinness Six Nations 2020 - Round 3 - A Game of Crowns and Home Advantage?

We have reached the mid-point of the 2020 Guinness Six Nations Championship and so far it’s been the story of two teams who both sit at the top of the table with 2 wins each – Ireland and France.  Interestingly both teams have had back to back home fixtures – so now it gets tougher as both face difficult away fixtures in round 3.

The other key news in the competition is the leaked rumour that the Six Nations may become Seven Nations with the addition of South Africa after the next World Cup in 2024.

The consequences of selling your soul for money means you lose control. 

The Six Nations was super protective of its status vetoing the proposed Global Championship as it raised the spectre of relegation. Since then, the deal with CVC Capital Partners in September 2019, means that they no longer have total control of their own destiny. CVC want a return on their investment and the lure of greater TV broadcast rights potentially changes the game.

With these broadcast deals accounting for the largest slice of a national Union’s income, South Africa’s time zone position close to GMT does not help it maximise the TV revenues from Australia and New Zealand that it would like. Being located much closer in time to the UK, however, South African rugby able to potentially make the most of prime-time broadcast slots in Western Europe.

The appeal for the Springboks is obvious and arguably goes beyond financial incentives., The Rugby Championship has taken its fair amount of flak in recent seasons, while the intensity and spectacle of the Six Nations – if not always the skill levels – continues to surpass that of its southern hemisphere rival.

Similarly, the lure for the Six Nations is also obvious. The Springboks are reigning World Cup champions and are a year-on-year big-ticket in rugby. Their addition to the tournament would be fascinating, to say the least.

The proposal faces creating a nightmare of logistical issues with flights to South Africa taking over ten hours from London, not to mention the extension of the tournament in games and duration and the reintroduction of bye weeks. But the Springboks are an established rugby nation and an easy boost for the Six Nations, not that one is necessarily currently needed.

My viewpoint is that the Six Nations should remain a European tournament. It should focus on furthering the growth of rugby outside of the traditional powerhouse nations. There have been calls for Georgia’s introduction to the Six Nations, especially with Italy’s waning fortunes of late, while Japan are another northern hemisphere nation that have shown themselves to be ready for an introduction to an annual tier one competition.

Both these nations have their drawbacks, most notably Georgia’s economy is not the potential gold mine the members of the Six Nations would presumably like in the tournament, while there are even more logistical issues involved with Japan than there are with South Africa given the drastically different time zone and a slightly longer flight.

The introduction of Friday night and Sunday afternoon games have not been popular at all with travelling supporters and I don’t see many welcoming the long journey’s to watch your team playing the Springboks. Home advantage, already a key factor in the current set up would become even more important with high altitude also maybe playing a part. Let’s hope this remains just a loose rumour and does not become a reality.

Anyway – your correspondent is sitting with 66% accuracy from rounds 1 and 2 – let’s see what I predict for the encounters in Round 3:

Italy v Scotland

Both Scotland and Italy go into the game with two defeats each so far in this year’s tournament, the Scots losing to Ireland and England while the Italians have lost out to Wales and France.

Italy had a slight renaissance with a better than expected comeback against France in Paris in round 2 before succumbing to an eventual 35-22 defeat.  There were clear signs of improvement against Les Bleus and the overall performance was a sign that the Azzurri are heading in the right direction. A tough game that showed positive points to build from in a match also blighted by alternating phases of wind and rain.

Wasps’ electric wing Matteo Minozzi, hooker Federico Zani and Mattia Bellini bagged tries for the battling Azzurri, but Franco Smith’s side still slipped to a 24th straight Six Nations loss.

Italy need to keep trying to improve from week to week with a greater physical impact in the game and continuing to perfect the game situations that have not worked well so far. Focus on the things they can control and try to stick to their game plan. The return home to Rome and the game against Scotland is their only chance this season of breaking their win drought. 

It’s a sad indictment of Italy’s abysmal form that only two of Italy’s Six Nations squad that are likely to face Scotland have ever tasted victory in the competition; former Scotland under-20s stand-off Tommaso Allan and midfielder Luca Morisi.

Italy’s last win was in 2015 at Murrayfield. Scotland’s Peter Horne missed a kick to touch, Scotland’s discipline disintegrated as they struggled to contain Italy’s relentless driving maul and a penalty try at the death earned Italy a famous victory.

Italy will do their best to facilitate another shock victory with their ever-physical threat, especially in the back row which effectively has three blindside flankers in Jake Polledri, Sebastian Negri and Abraham Steyn, whom one wag christened “the poor man’s CJ Stander”.

For Scotland, Storm Ciara killed any chance of a spectacle in the Calcutta Cup against England. It’s hard to assess how good or bad Scotland are given the treacherous conditions which dogged the match. At the end of the day, a second horror goal line moment in consecutive weeks from Captain Stuart Hogg gave England the crucial possession to break a 3-all deadlock in the Calcutta Cup fixture at Murrayfield.

A week after spilling the ball in the process of putting the ball down for a try in Dublin, Hogg scrambled to cover a long kick from George Ford. Instead of letting the ball cross the try line before diving on it, Hogg went early and fumbled the ball into the path of Owen Farrell.

Farrell’s try was called back after the TMO ruled that Hogg had grounded the ball with his torso, but it still gave England a 5-metre scrum with just 10-minutes remaining. England’s pack bullied their way over moments later through Ellis Genge to score the only try of the match. 

The continuing spat between Gregor Townsend and Finn Russell shows no signs of abating with both camps issuing aggressively worded statements over the past fortnight. 

Russell spoke about the circumstances of his departure from the Six Nations camp, and how disenchanted he’d become with the environment and the rugby, and how he felt relations between he and Gregor had deteriorated. Gregor responded that Finn wasn’t yet ready to “align himself” to Scotland’s standards, but hoped he would have the opportunity to coach him again. Sadly, after this “shot trading”, I struggle to see a way back into the Scotland squad for Finn Russell while Gregor Townsend is still head coach.

Against this background, replacement pivot Adam Hastings has been solid in the two matches thus far,  handling his promotion to playmaker remarkably well. His direction at 10 was brilliant in Dublin and his composure at Murrayfield was also impressive in the atrocious conditions. 

Scotland’s pack were solid and stood up well but as a neutral – you always had the feeling that England’s desire and determination was the stronger and they looked the more likely winner.  Scotland’s main issue is their continued failure to turn pressure into points. In particular, red-zone attacking efficiency (points converted from possessions inside the 22) is ridiculously low.

Against Ireland, Scotland had them on the ropes multiple times in the first half only to be scuttled at the breakdown as CJ Stander, Caelon Dorris and James Ryan forced costly turnovers.

Six entries into Ireland’s 22 in the first half yielded just three points at a measly rate of just 0.5 points per entry. 

Against England, this was even worse - three entries into England’s 22 in the first half yielded zero points.

The first key problem to this issue is Scotland’s persistent but unproven desire to score tries from lineout mauls. It isn’t working. 

Their lineout maul from five metres out was sacked and turned over nearly every time it was used in last year’s Six Nations, leading to many wasted opportunities. If it wasn’t sacked and turned, it was severely disrupted, creating messy ball for any strike or phase play afterward.

Scotland have scored just one pushover try from a lineout maul from inside 10-metres over the last two and a half Six Nations campaigns, with John Barclay’s try against Italy in 2018 the only success. This is not for a lack of trying as it has been deployed regularly without success.

As Storm Ciara worsened in Edinburgh in the 15th minute against England, Scotland turned down a kickable shot at goal to kick to the corner for a lineout. The resulting lineout maul from the five was sacked and turned by Tom Curry, foiling what turned out to be the easiest chance of the half to score some points.

Alternatively, when Stuart Hogg was penalised at the other end for holding on down near his own goal line in the 26th minute, England immediately took the shot at goal at the expense of a 5-metre lineout maul that was on offer.

Even with the size advantage up front, England recognized the premium on points the conditions would force and took shots at goal.

With a horrendous track record of converting their maul into points, Scotland turned down a chance for three points so their pack could once again attempt the impossible.

This year without a playmaker like Finn Russell to lead their attack, they are resorting to using Sam Johnson as a crash option to generate gain line on set-piece platforms and looking to work off the back of that momentum. Scotland need to rethink and quickly!

Townsend has made three change to his Scotland team to face Italy in the Guinness Six Nations on Saturday, with hooker Stuart McInally, second row Ben Toolis and centre Chris Harris promoted from the bench for their first starts of the 2020 campaign. Edinburgh wing Darcy Graham returned to training last week but did not recover sufficiently from his knee injury to be considered for selection.

McInally swaps places with Glasgow Warriors’ Fraser Brown, who moves to the bench, and Toolis comes in for the injured Jonny Gray (hand), while Harris is picked in favour of Huw Jones, with Sale Sharks wing Byron McGuigan taking his place on the bench.

The Scots have won 22 of the 30 Tests between the nations but the odds are more evenly stacked when they meet in Italy where the results are level on six wins apiece thanks to a recent run of four consecutive away wins for the Scots.

I think Scotland are a better team than Italy and will have the edge but must not make the mistake of underestimating the hosts in Rome and if they avoid any more handling banana skins – they will have enough power to make it home. 

No question Townsend and his Scotland squad are under intense scrutiny  but that pressure comes with the territory when you are a national coach and, moreover, with better discipline they could have won both of their opening matches with a little luck. 

Scotland boast a better balance, with Jamie Ritchie offering a lineout option and turnover expertise, Magnus Bradbury is the bruising ball carrier that Scotland have been missing and Watson is carrier, link man and poacher who will hope to fill his boots at the breakdown.

The match is gearing up to be a battle Royale in Rome. Scotland will not be wanting to repeat the situation from  two years ago when it took a penalty from Greig Laidlaw’s boot in the 79th minute to snatch what had looked an unlikely win with Scotland trailing 24-12.

Scotland by one score.

Italy 17 Scotland 22

Wales v France

Wayne Pivac’s dream start to succeed Warren Gatland as Wales head coach with comfortable wins against the Barbarians and Italy came crashing down in Ireland as Wales struggled for possession and territory, and Pivac’s men were blown away in the Dublin wind.

They will be disappointed with their slow start in Dublin and the constant errors they made throughout the game. Their narrowness in defence gave Ireland the opportunity to go wide and Ireland also won the pack battle with Front and back rows both dominant despite another strong showing from Justin Tipuric. 

Nick Tompkins found out that test rugby is not all champagne and success as he missed five crucial tackles in that nightmare 1st half. Such profligacy will not help his cause despite a stronger second half and some bullet passing. Owen Watkin was strong last weekend for the Ospreys and I would expect him to start against France where defensive strength will be the key to stopping France’s dangerous threequarters. 

Ken Owens had another poor game in Dublin and looks past his best but with continued injury doubts over heir apparent Elliott Dee means he will keep his place. It’s a constant embarrassment that Wales have had two former hookers as Forward Coaches – Robyn McBryde and now Jonathan Humphries – yet their line out throwing accuracy still resembles a scud missile and the lack of cleanly won secure ball prevents them building a sustained forward platform. 

Aaron Wainwright was anonymous and Jake Ball also had an off day.  I would expect Aaron Shingler to be right back in contention to start this match. 

They clearly need to put Dublin behind them and put themselves in a better position against France. Wales are looking to bounce back the round two defeat in Dublin where they feel their scrum was incorrectly penalised. There has been whining all week about illegal “cheating” at the scrums. Come on – you play to the referee and this whiny nonsense makes Wales sound like sour losers. 

Despite the disappointing display, there are reasons for optimism as Pivac and his new coaching set up look to build on their experience with Scarlets and operate a more expansive game. Pivac is following a path set out by his mentor Steve Hansen.

The Gatland era, whilst incredibly effective and successful, really went away from the running creative style that many Welsh fans consider their heritage and lifeblood.

Wayne Pivac and Stephen Jones are set in returning to these days. They have started this journey with a little Scarlets panache and a return to basics.

Wales’ new attack shape looks to be similar to Japan’s and England’s patterns under Eddie Jones, the key difference being England are more inclined to run “off-9” than Wales who focus more on running “off-10”.

Japan use a similar attack pattern with a strong 10-12 Outside Half/Inside Centre axis, that allowed has them to stretch the defence across the field whilst maintaining numbers in attack.

With Wales, we have started to see a similar setup in phase play. In the absence of Gareth Anscombe, Dan Biggar has been very prevalent in this Welsh attack shape, whilst the second receiver for Wales is often the outside centre or full-back due to Hadleigh Parkes’ crash ball role.

With the mobility and experience in the back row that Pivac can call upon, this is a natural fit for the Welsh team. The Pro14 allows more contesting at the breakdown than any other competition, this combined with Sam Warburtons’ coaching influence means Wales can start to bring a natural efficacy to this game-plan than other teams could.

With the modern rush defence, the back three players are finding themselves more and more nullified on the wings. Pivac and Jones are building a structure for them to follow the play and be useful elsewhere.

Dan Biggar is now providing this option with his increased skill at taking the ball to the line, much like Ford provides England. It was therefore very concerning to see him leave the field in Dublin after clashing heads with Ireland centre Robbie Henshaw during Wales’ 24-14 defeat..

The Northampton Saints playmaker failed a dressing room head injury assessment (HIA) shortly afterwards.

I feel you have to admire the direction of the Welsh management in these early days. We’ve seen the wingers coming in at first receiver, as well as the inside options to target the fringes, combatting the rush defence. 

We’ve seen forwards as distributors, and an increasing rise in the offloading game to pierce the defensive line as shown with Wales opening try in Dublin through Tomos Williams. Watch the build-up and the superb offload pass which enabled the scrum half to dance through to score.

It’s early days, but all this is pointing to a game where Wales can literally bring too many options for a defence to bear at high speed. If they can get it right, not many teams will be able to live with it.

Welsh back Owen Williams – who sustained a hamstring injury in the warm-up ahead of Wales’ fixture against Ireland at the weekend – has been ruled out of the remainder of Wales’ Guinness Six Nations Campaign after a further assessment has concluded that the injury was more significant than first thought.

Pivac has called Cardiff Blues back Hallam Amos into their Guinness Six Nations squad.  The 22-cap Amos replaces Blues team-mate Owen Lane who was released from the squad earlier in the campaign due to injury.

Wayne Pivac’s decision to only call up Amos means the coach is sticking with just two out-halves in his squad and has every confidence that Dan Biggar has overcome his third head injury of the season. It follows rumours that Bath’s Rhys Priestland was in the running for a call-up. 

France will be coming to Cardiff on the back of two home wins and full of confidence. The win over Italy was comfortable but once again they seemed to go off the boil and let their opponents back into the game rather than putting them to the sword. They need to not come to Cardiff over-confident as Wales have not lost at home in their last six tournament home matches. 

They will also be cognizant that Guy Noves’ French side started off with two wins in 2016 and then lost 27-6 to Wales in Cardiff. To their advantage this time, they have fact that this is a Wales side also in transition. 

The France fixture will also see the return of Shaun Edwards to Cardiff. They  will be physical and bring line speed, with Shaun being there will give them a structure in defence.

The reality is that France have the second biggest playing base in the world next to England. Its also true that they have finished in the top half of the Six Nations only twice since their 2010 Grand Slam.

Their Top 14 competition isn’t necessarily the best way to prepare their players for the step up into international rugby. It’s too easy to say ‘there are too many foreign players’ in their league because with 14 clubs young players get as many if not more opportunities than elsewhere. 

The style of play sometimes doesn’t help. Some clubs that will just play huge packs to overwhelm sides. To play at international level, you need to play at a higher tempo. 

France were so, so close to reaching a World Cup semi-final against South Africa after largely outplaying Wales in Japan and you have a feeling that France are “due” a win over Wales. 

Last year, we had the Six Nations game when they went 16-0 up against Wales and gifted them two tries and the World Cup quarter-final – they should have won both games. I don’t think there will be the fear that there was there a while back but there is a little pressure on them to continue their momentum in this tournament. 

Two of France’s most potent attacking threats are set to return for their side’s Guinness Six Nations clash with Wales.

Virimi Vakatawa,  and Camille Chat are set to return after they were named in the 28-man squad to face Wales. Fijian-born powerhouse Vakatawa has been in sensational form all season for the Parisian club, but missed France’s win over Italy due to injury. 

Damian Penaud also featured in the opening game against England but missed out last weekend due to a calf injury looks to have not fully recovered from his left calf injury, and Clermont winger Penaud  could be replaced by Paris centre Gaël Fickou.

Penaud did not participate in the high intensity training on Tuesday in Marcoussis which is not a good sign four days before the game against Wales.  Gaël Fickou took his place in training on the left wing leaving Arthur Vincent likely to partner Virimi Vakatawa in the middle of the field.

One player who  definitely won’t feature is Vincent Rattez, who broke his leg in the latter stages of the Italy game.

Wales have home advantage and with a closed roof they will not endure the wind and rain that caused them so many problems in Dublin. They need to tighten up their defence and keep possession of the ball. The failing scrum and weak line out win % hasn’t helped their cause and they definitely need to be tighter up front.

France will no doubt battle in the pack and try to release their speedy back division. Antoine Dupont has rapidly risen to be on of , if not the;  best scrum halves in World Rugby right now and stopping him and Ntamack from dictating play will be crucial. 

Wales, like England; don’t play badly twice in a row and the 10 year hoodoo on the French winning in Cardiff looks likely to continue. Wales by 8 points.

Wales 25 France 17

England v Ireland

The final match up sees Ireland seeking a triple crown against England at Fortress Twickenham. The Irish will be buoyant after a relatively easy win over Wales whilst England have their championship back on track after the win in Edinburgh.

England’s win in Scotland was hard won and deserved. They always looked like having the edge in a game massively hyped up with a nasty atmosphere to match the stormy conditions. 

England alleged that one of their backroom staff had been hit on the head with a plastic beer bottle when the team bus offloaded the squad at Murrayfield. Abuse had been hurled at the English team however as they got off the bus and the failure of the crowd in the stadium to remain quiet during Owen Farrell’s kicks irked England head coach Eddie Jones.

I personally see no place for this in the game. Talk of “hate” between the teams was fuelled by prop Ellis Genge who was criticised for turning up to an interview swinging a beer bottle.

I like Genge and I have no issue with players enjoying a post-match drink but I do take exception to the hate element. Former Scotland Captain Peter Brown wrote a letter to the press talking about the friendships from rugby and that hate belongs to terrorists not rugby fans. He as spot on and Eddie Jones who’s motor mouth Press statements do not help the situation in any way.

England suffered real anguish in their last Guinness Six Nations meeting with Ireland at Twickenham and will be keen to avenge that surprise defeat and keep their own championship challenge on track.

In 2018,  the St Patrick’s Day festivities were ignited by a 24-15 victory that completed only the third clean sweep in Irish rugby history.

England have since recorded comprehensive victories against them in home and away fixtures, most notably in Dublin last year, but the memory of Ireland celebrating the Grand Slam at Twickenham still grates on Eddie Jones and his team.

Eddie Jones faces several selection headaches. Anthony Watson is increasingly looking like he will miss the remainder of the Six nations. Manu Tuilagi and Henry Slade are both returning to fitness but probably won’t make the Ireland clash. 

Eddie Jones has steadfastly refused to bow to pressure to add a specialist No. 8 to his squad although Bath’s Zach Mercer and Harlequin’s Alex Dombrandt  keep putting themselves in the spotlight.

Dombrandt was acclaimed as one of the rising stars of the English game while being named Gallagher Premiership Rugby Player of the Month for January 2020. Probably a reminder that Eddie Jones being stubborn and dogmatic will continue to ignore – maybe at his peril. 

One player who won’t be lining up against Ireland is Loose head prop Mako Vunipola who has returned to Tonga for family reasons. Ellis Genge is the form player to replace him but don’t be surprised if Eddie Jones looks elsewhere with Joe Marler and Bath’s Beno Obano available. Obano was called up this week to replace Vunipola in the training squad.

Alongside France, Andy Farrell’s men are one of only two unbeaten teams left in the 2020 Championship . Back to back Dublin victories over Scotland and Wales have placed Ireland in a commanding position but their trip to the home of Eddie Jones’ World Cup finalists is the biggest test of Farrell’s blossoming stewardship so far.

Andy Farrell has named an unchanged Ireland team to face England.

The team heads to London gunning for a Triple Crown success two years after they sealed the Six Nations Grand Slam on their last championship visit there.

Ireland ran out convincing 24-14 winners over the Welsh in their last outing and Farrell has opted to keep faith in the starting XV and make only a single alteration to the bench where Caelan Doris comes in for Max Deegan.

Rookie Doris earned his debut cap when starting the championship opener versus Scotland but he was concussed in the opening minutes, allowing Peter O’Mahony to come off the bench and reclaim the starting spot he had lost to the young Leinster back row.

Captain Johnny Sexton is named in the half-backs alongside Conor Murray. Bundee Aki and Robbie Henshaw start their ninth Test match as the midfield partnership.

Jordan Larmour lines out at full-back with Andrew Conway and Jacob Stockdale on the wings.

Cian Healy, Rob Herring and Tadhg Furlong start a third consecutive Test match with Iain Henderson and James Ryan in the row. CJ Stander, O’Mahony and Josh van der Flier make up the back row combination.

The replacements will be Ronan Kelleher, Dave Kilcoyne, Andrew Porter, Devin Toner, Doris, John Cooney, Ross Byrne and Keith Earls.

Ireland will want to keep it tight and try to compete head on. Their back row has been inspired whilst England have looked rather lacklustre. CJ Stander needs another strong turnover game if Ireland are to have any real chance.

For England, that early score is critical and they will focus on getting their opponents to concede penalties. That will give Ford and Farrell the opportunity to take some more risks and get the England threequarters into play.

My gut reaction is that both France and England will have too much for Ireland and England will win by 10-12 points. England have a stronger bench, and home advantage is such a big thing in this tournament.

England 34 Ireland 22