Wednesday, February 5, 2020

Guinness Six Nations 2020 Round 2 Previews - "If you can't stand the heat!..."

After three exciting matches in the opening round of the 2020 Guinness Six nations, there is no time to gather breath as the second round is almost upon us. Round 1 went completely with home advantage. That shows a big difference from 2019 where there was only one home win in each of the first two rounds. 

Rugby Raconteur is packing his bags for a weekend in Dublin so it's an early assessment this week of Round Two’s key encounters. France, Wales and Ireland all tasted victory in that first act, who will triumph in the 2nd? Let’s find out:

Ireland v Wales


Ireland have had the perfect fixture draw with two consecutive games at home as they welcome Wales to the Aviva Stadium in Dublin. They will be looking to improve dramatically after the opening round after they had a stuttering start to the new championship but somehow escaped to an barely deserved 19-12 victory over Scotland at the Aviva Stadium to get Andy Farrell's reign as head coach off to a winning start.

It was frustrating viewing for Irish supporters as the team effort didn’t show much progression on the disappointing 2019 season and the hosts just about survived a frantic final 10 minutes when Gregor Townsend's side should have scored at least once to salvage a draw. This Ireland team look a shadow of the formidable force they were a couple of years ago in the days when they defeated the All Blacks twice.

We were robbed of the chance to see much of the much vaunted debutant Caelan Doris who left the field with a head injury early in the first half. Ireland were somewhat static in attack but a Jordan Larmour break set up field position for the first try of the Farrell era with captain Jonny Sexton crossing the whitewash in what proved to be the crucial score.

Against this background, Andy Farrell has kept faith with the side that beat Scotland 19-12 last weekend  and only made two injury enforced changes to his Ireland XV for Saturday’s round two clash with Wales. 

Caelan Doris and Garry Ringrose are both ruled out through injury. Doris, who suffered a head injury in the victory over Scotland, is ruled out through the Return To Play protocols whilst Ringrose will miss Ireland's next two games following surgery on a broken finger. 

Peter O’Mahony, who stepped off the bench for the concussed Doris, has been promoted to start as has fellow replacement Robbie Henshaw, who was a half-time substitution for the injured Garry Ringrose.

The other 13 starters remain in situ, including scrum-half Conor Murray despite many fans calling for John Cooney to start in his place.

Promoted duo Henshaw and O’Mahony are respectively replaced on the bench by Keith Earls and the uncapped Leinster back row Max Deegan, with the other six subs the same as last weekend – including Dave Kilcoyne who is still following return to play protocols following his concussion so Jack McGrath is on standby.

Ireland beat Wales in two World Cup warm-up games but were soundly outplayed in the last competitive fixture between the sides, a 25-7 win that secured the grand slam for Saturday's visitors. 

Utility back Will Addison was not considered due to a calf injury. 
Peter O'Mahony and Robbie Henshaw have been named in Andy Farrell's Ireland team to face Wales in Saturday's Six Nations clash in Dublin. 

The front row of Cian Healy, Rob Herring and Tadhg Furlong, who shook off a calf complaint, and the second row of James Ryan and Iain Henderson are unchanged. 

What of their opponents – Wales? It was a perfect start for (Wayne) Pivac as Wales had a rare shut-out, got the only bonus point of the weekend and cruised to an easy five try 42-0 victory over Italy in Cardiff.

The question remaining is were Wales that good or Italy that bad?

The answer is both. No question Wales were impressive. The new coaching set up had an immediate impact with a clearly much more expansive game on display. Gone were the Gatland tactics of kicking away possession and we saw far more invention from Wales especially running out from their half and much flatter aggressive passing.

Josh Adams is the supreme finisher and new cap Nick Tompkins had a dream debut with a well taken try and some sublime passing to set up two further scores. The 25-year-old can be filed as another player who, for whatever reason, was deemed not worthy of a call-up to the England squad but who will significantly enhance the options available to Wayne Pivac.

It was the little touches that showed the experienced Saracens midfielder looks set for Wales’ push for the 2023 World Cup.

In the backline, Hadleigh Parkes performs a critical role. He thundered into contact, making precious metres and on the other side of the ball, threw himself at ball-carriers with little regard for his safety. He also showed his footballing skills with a mighty clearance. Without these hardy types, Wales simply wouldn’t function.

Aaron Wainwright was another player who had an impressive game.  He took clean ball off the tail of the lineout, carried aggressively around the fringes, chipped in to top the tackle count with 17 and showed his neat footwork in the wide channels.

Only 22, he seems to have the ability to reach a level of performance few others can reach and if he can work with Warburton on his breakdown influence, he could yet challenge his lauded breakdown coach in the annals of Welsh backrow fame.

It wasn’t all perfect for Wales. The scrum was a mess which after a solid start, started to creak under the Italian pack and saw the penalty count rise. It gave Italy some concerted field possession to frustrate Wales. 

Both Wyn Jones and Dillon Lewis worked hard in the loose, with the former hitting double-figures for tackle count but with Tadhg Furlong and Cian Healy ready to give any Welsh front-row hell, Wayne Pivac will be spending a good part of this week in discussion with Jonathan Humphreys deciding how to address the Irish pack. Rob Evans, Leon Brown, Rhys Carre and WillGriff John will have extra incentive at training this week.

Ken Owens will want to forget his wayward line out throwing and Wales didn’t have much to offer with ball carrying forwards. Taulupe Faletau looked rusty but Welsh back row strength meant that they had enough in reserve to see off the Azzurri with Justin Tipuric a deserved man of the match.

Wales now head to Dublin in search of a record ninth successive Six Nations win, although Ireland were the last team to beat them in the tournament almost two years ago.

Wales haven’t won in Dublin since 2012 and they always somehow seem to bring out the best in Ireland. The game will be won or lost in the forwards. Wales certainly were not entirely convincing in that area against Italy. Ireland will want to grind out penalties as they probably don’t quite match Wales in the backs.

Ireland are still shell-shocked from their dreadful game in Cardiff in 2019 and will want to put the record straight. 

The bookies can’t separate the teams although these games are seldom tight with only the 16-16 draw in 2016 as a close encounter. 

I feel Wales have the belief and momentum. A rare welsh victory on irish soil.

Ireland 16 Wales 23


Scotland v England


The 127th Calcutta Cup match in Edinburgh with be the match of the losers from round one. Scotland were desperately unlucky not to win in Dublin whilst Eddie Jones England were shell-shocked into defeat in Paris.

Scotland’s miserable Six Nations away form continued but coach Gregor Townsend will have seen many positives in the wake of this narrow 19-12 loss.  With a huge Calcutta Cup clash looming at BT Murrayfield on Saturday, it would be counter-productive to stick the boot into players who showed no lack of effort, some flashes of excellence but came up short on the road once again.

Captain Stuart Hogg was the village idiot with his howler of a dropped ball over the try line under no pressure. Personally, I was even more disappointed to see him celebrating like he had scored when he knew full well it had done a significant cock up. That lack of sportsmanship and refusal to put his hand up is hardly the mark of a great captain. It was a critical moment, of course, but it was a match the Scots were always chasing from the moment home skipper Johnny Sexton burst over to overturn Adam Hastings early penalty.

One thing is for sure, though, it was a vast improvement on the 27-3 thumping by the same opposition at the World Cup. It could hardly have got any worse than that, though.

Scotland can take heart from their performance in Dublin. They competed well in the set pieces and repeatedly sustained enough pressure and possession to launch themselves into the danger zone. They matched, and often bettered, Ireland in aggression and forward power. 

The Scotland scrummage was more than stable platform and at times a real weapon. The big men of the pack stepped up in a very big way. Defensively Scotland were more resolute than they were for the entirety of last year - credit to former Ospreys Steve Tandy who had almost no time to stamp his mark.

The way they spoiled and sacked the Irish maul was joyous to watch!

Gregor Townsend’s strategy fitted the players he used and a game like this will seriously ease the pressure on him after a dismal 2019. 

Rory Sutherland was a demon in the loose and a force at scrum-time on his first Test outing in nearly four years. Adam Hastings throw off all the coverage on the absence of Finn Russell and you were tempted to say Finn who?

As always – there is also plenty of room for improvement. The accuracy of the Scots’ clearance work at the breakdown needs attention because Ireland managed five turnovers there. England breakaways Tom Curry and Sam Underhill are probably better poachers than their Irish counterparts and Eddie Jones will surely pick a natural No 8 between them.

To have the Irish under pressure in their own 22 countless times and not manage to finish off once, barring Hogg’s one that got away, is also simply not good enough. Townsend will also have concerns over the sheer number of penalties conceded.

Eddie Jones really needs to keep his mouth shut. His comments on making England into “the greatest team in history ”and telling the opposition how brutally tough you are going to be is, at best, egotistical and worse horrendous arrogance of the kind which makes every other team want to see England lose. Whatever happened to being hard and fair, respectful and innovative?

It was simply dreadful start on Sunday for the new coaching team of Eddie Jones, John Mitchell, Steve Borthwick, Matt Proudfoot and Simon Amor, as England looked listless and without direction in their 24-17 Guinness Six Nations loss to France in Paris.

In an absolutely dire first half display, England shipped 17 unanswered points to a youthful and energetic French side and, were it not for two pieces of individual brilliance from Jonny May in the second half, the final score could have well looked far worse for the recent Rugby World Cup finalists.

For me, the performance was a stark reminder of England’s struggles in 2018, when the team lacked for balance and was regularly overpowered, particularly in the forward pack and in the midfield. There have been few, if any, worse 40-minute displays from England under Jones than that opening half against France.

As I said in my season’s preview – England don’t seem to have any Plan B. If they can’t dominate up front and score early they don’t have the wherewithal to come back and try different things.

The experiment of playing Tom Curry at No.8 clearly didn’t work  Whether through a lack of physicality or inventiveness in attack, England completely lacked for incision and despite enjoying the lion’s share of possession and territory, not to mention numerous entries into the French 22, they could not create opportunities in the same fashion as France. Those that they did create were swiftly squandered.

If there was one area of positivity for England, it was the performance of their scrum under the tutelage of new coach Proudfoot, the same man who had masterminded the South African destruction of the English set-piece just a few months ago in Japan. Joe Marler, Jamie George and Kyle Sinckler all enjoyed scrum dominance over their opposite numbers, whilst Ellis Genge maintained that superiority when he arrived from the bench in the second half.

Away from the scrum, though, it was a tale of ineffectiveness, as England looked to lack all the dynamism that had served them so well at the Rugby World Cup. Even powerful carriers like Sinckler and Maro Itoje were dulled in Paris, as the back row of Courtney Lawes, Sam Underhill and Tom Curry struggled to lay the same aggressive foundation that had made it such a feared group last year.

The back line was also uncharacteristically error prone, as Owen Farrell dropped a simple pass under no pressure, Ford and debutant George Furbank struggled to connect in the midfield and the wings, aside from May’s two impressive solo efforts in the second half, were starved of the ball. George Furbank definitely had a debut to forget making multiple errors and never looking calm and composed at any time in the match.

Tom Youngs’ missed tackle on Vincent Rattez for the Frenchman’s try and May’s lack of chasing back on Ollivon’s first score were representative of a terrible day at the office for a side that was dissecting and punishing the All Blacks just two games previously.

One player who won’t be available is Manu Tuilagi who has been ruled out of the trip to Scotland due to a groin strain. The centre limped off the field after just 16 minutes at the Stade de France, and after a scan it has been decided he will miss out on the trip to BT Murrayfield.

The good news is that the injury doesn’t seem to be too serious for the 28-year-old, with Eddie Jones expecting him to return for the Round 3 match with Ireland later in the month.

With defence, attack and work at the contact area all falling well below their usual standards, England have a lot of questions to answer for the Calcutta Cup, with Scotland’s performance in Dublin having comfortably surpassed that of England’s in Paris.

England had a dreadful day last time in Edinburgh in 2018 and they have only a 50% win rate there. Scotland will be disappointed by last week’s result and will want to really beat the “auld enemy”. If they can avoid an early score and put pressure on England’s forwards, then confidence will rise for another upset. 

England are rarely poor on two consecutive games and I expect them to them to be far more clinical this time around. Service will be resumed and the Calcutta Cup will be returning to HQ.

Scotland 16 England 32

France v Italy


The final game sees the reborn Les Bleus at home again facing perennial whipping boys Italy. France were superb in defeating England. The draw has been kind to them with a second consecutive home fixture and they have every chance to keep positive momentum with the visit of the Azzuri. 

A rain-swept Stade de France noisily greeted the new era launched by their head coach Fabien GalthiĆ© with the influence of his assistant Shaun Edwards was stamped all over their defensive heroics.

Eddie Jones questioned how France’s young team would cope with the pressure, but it was his players who looked powerless as events unfolded around them.

For the first time since 1988, England they were held scoreless at the interval in a Championship match and it is hard to imagine a worse start as they were breached in the sixth minute by Vincent Rattez. France started the match with great intensity and further tries from Vincent Rattez and Charles Ollivon saw them leading 17-0 at half-time. 

Antoine Dupont was the principal architect of England’s defeat with a masterful display. sniping blind with a series of side-steps before feeding the ball back inside to Ollivon as the France skipper raced over for his second of the contest.

After the break, Ollivon scored his side's third tr. Ntamack added the extras and England found themselves staring at a scoreboard that read 24-0 and the prospect of leaving Paris empty handed, much to the delight of the home crowd. 

The young French players stood up well to the challenge. Debutant France full-back Anthony Bouthier looked assured under the high ball - an examination he passed with flying colours.

The GalthiĆ© era could not have started better with a prestigious victory against England. Beyond the score, the overall performance of Les Bleus had much to celebrate especially an airtight defence and a new mental strength. 

Plenty of credit must go to France, who looked a vastly improved side from their struggles at the Rugby World Cup. Charles Ollivon, who is already looking calm and assured in his role as captain; was excellent in his new role as captain, whilst Gregory Alldritt and Bernard Le Roux shone alongside him as leaders by example in the pack. 

The French half backs was excellent. Antoine Duponte and Romain Ntamack are two high quality players and were a great blend with the latter player achieving a 100% goal kick accuracy. They are different and, at the same time, complementary. In the kicking-game at a time when there was no domination, the animation between them was good and France’s exciting and powerful back line had no trouble shutting down England defensively, in addition to their obvious attacking ability.

At the same time, France have room for improvement. This match will give them plenty of material to work with in all areas and sectors of the game. They can especially be more effective in game management. 

The truth is that France caused their own trouble in the second half. The first part of their match was pretty solid, but it was when they started to make substitutions, that the team was destabilized. At 24-0, they chose to make changes and there they lost their way almost letting England back into the match. They need to win comfortably and dreams of a first championship since 2010 could become a realty!  

Italy have now not won since beating Scotland at Murrayfield in 2015 and recorded their 23rd successive Six Nations loss although they dominated the early stages of the second-half, keeping possession and patiently building phases but just could not break down Wales' defence.

Italy coach Franco Smith has once again been forced to defend their right to be in the Six Nations championship at all. Smith will take heart from Italy’s U20 team dominating and bullying Wales U20s as confirmation that significant improvements are being made in Italian rugby despite the heavy beating by Wales who kept the opposition scoreless for the first time in the championship since 1974.

Italy’s preparations for the Six Nations did not go to plan with them losing their head coach and their interim boss Franco Smith was powerless to prevent a one-sided display as his side were hammered by Wales.

Italy’s inability to score a single point against the Welsh was a very disappointing display despite the best efforts of the pack led by the hard working Lovetti and in Gloucester’s Jake Polledri they have a potential new star. They have plenty of work to do if they are to avoid another embarrassing loss this weekend.

Following another big defeat, Italy are expected to ring the changes for this contest but even making numerous personnel switches is unlikely to prevent the Italians from being on the end of another one-sided score line.

France put in the performance of the weekend in the opening round of matches of the 2020 Six Nations. They went into the game against England as underdogs but were far too good for their opponents as their powerful side dominated physically. That laid down a big marker for the rest of the tournament and this looks like being another big loss for the Italians.

This match has forgone conclusion written all over it. In years gone by, you could make an argument for France doing a France and imploding, but not now. Not this team. Not with Shaun Edwards marshalling the defence.

France will run out comfortable winners with a bonus point.

France 34 Italy 7

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