The 2020 Guinness Six Nations tournament is at a crisis point. Ireland’s home fixture to Italy this coming weekend has already been called off due to the risk of the COVID-19 Coronavirus and now it has bene confirmed that England’s final match against Italy in Rome has also been postponed.
The Six Nations held emergency talks today to postpone England's final match against Italy in Rome after instructions from the Italian government that all sporting events must be played behind closed doors until next month because of the threat of the Coronavirus.
The Azzurri’s home game with England is one of the few occasions that the Stadio Olimpico will sell out its 65,000 capacity and the loss of ticket revenue and hospitality sales would cost the Italian Rugby Federation around €5 million were the game to be played behind closed doors.
This weekend’s scheduled Six Nations games will go ahead as planned, following a Six Nations committee meeting in Paris to discuss the threat posed by the spread of the coronavirus across Europe.
Following the conclusion of those talks, it has been decided that both England’s game against Wales at Twickenham on Saturday, and Sunday’s meeting of Scotland and France in Edinburgh, will go ahead as planned.
France’s Super Saturday final fixture against Ireland still hangs in the balance after the French government imposed a ban on public gatherings of more than 5,000 people in confined spaces on Saturday, whilst England’s final day trip to Rome are both at high risk of being also called off.
In 2001, the tournament last had a situation like we are facing today with Coronavirus. The competition was badly affected by an outbreak of the highly infectious livestock disease foot and mouth in Britain. As a consequence, there were restrictions on travel and Ireland's three fixtures against the home nations were postponed until September and October with England eventually crowned champions.
There has been talk of the same happening in 2020 but the new global calendar and player release outside that calendar and the already busy November rugby international schedule means that it looks unlikely that any postponed matches might get replayed. Rearranging the Italy game is already highly problematic because of the lack of space in the rugby calendar and the Irish Rugby Football Union has yet to suggest an alternative date.
The loss of further Six Nations games to postponement could create quite a headache for officials as English Premiership Rugby could wind up in a standoff with the Six Nations over the release of players who play in their league.
There are no restrictions regarding Eddie Jones’ England squad. They have an agreement whereby they can be released for Test team activity during out-of-window periods. However, English clubs are under no obligation to release players from other nations such as Italy, Wales and Scotland outside of the Test window.
This, for instance, could result in Gloucester refusing to release their Italian duo Jake Polledri and Callum Braley if the Ireland-Italy match was rescheduled before the end of the season and clashed with an English league fixture. The alternative would be to play hold the postponed match over until the July or November Test windows later this year
The only other option might be to play behind closed doors with no public presence but that would be hugely unpopular and scant reward for the national Unions’ – all of whom depend on Six Nations gate money to a large extent.
With these doubts, there is a high risk of the tournament becoming incomplete in a similar way to the 1972 Five Nations and becoming only the second time since World War 2 that the Northern Hemispheres’ premier rugby competition will not have a winner.
Looking back to that 1972 tournament, Scotland and Wales did not travel to Dublin to play Ireland because of the escalating political situation. It was the worst year of the Northern Ireland 'troubles' with a death roll close to 500 including the 'Bloody Sunday' killings of peaceful demonstrators in Londonderry on January 30. It was also the one time that it seemed possible the troubles might spread beyond Northern Ireland and the border areas to take in Dublin and other parts of the Republic.
In the days after 'Bloody Sunday' around 30,000 demonstrators laid siege to the British Embassy on Merrion Square in Dublin and on February 2 succeeded in burning it down.
Scotland, who were due in Dublin on February 26 to play an Irish team that had already won in Paris and London, were unnerved. It was reported that several players received death threats purporting to come from the Provisional IRA. And on February 14, the Scottish Rugby Union announced that its team would not travel.
The Irish Rugby Football Union sent a high-powered delegation including its leading officials and national coach Ronnie Dawson to Edinburgh in the hope of getting the SRU to think again. They did so, but after a further meeting on February 17 confirmed that they would not be coming.
The same process followed in relation to the match against Wales, due to be played on March 11. The Welsh Rugby Union suggested that the match might be played in Cardiff or on a neutral ground, but the IRFU insisted that it was Dublin or nothing - and on February 27 it was called off.
The two cancelled matches - and in particular the possible climax against Wales - remain among the great “what if” scenarios. Wales felt that they were odds on to record their first win in Dublin since 1964'. For the Irish, without a Triple Crown since their Grand Slam year of 1949, the disappointment was especially high. Lions legend Willie John McBride, believed that the 1972 team was possibly the best Irish combination he played in, and wrote that 'I found it hard to understand the attitude of the Scots and Welsh', adding that many of their players had not agreed with the administrators.
Although the remaining fixtures of the schedule were fulfilled, as both Ireland and Wales won all their matches, neither could claim the title. To fill the gap of the missing two fixtures, France also played a friendly match in Dublin (in addition to the scheduled match in Paris).
There has also been talk this week of the tournament disappearing from “free to air” terrestrial TV as the competition seeks to maximise its income. That suggestion has also been largely condemned and it dragged in National politicians in Wales.
Leader of Plaid Cymru Adam Price has written to the Secretary of State for Digital, Culture, Media and Sport (DCMS) Oliver Dowden asking for the tournament to be protected on terrestrial television on the grounds that it is an "integral part of Welsh culture and identity". MP Kevin Brennan went further tabling a Commons motion.
Six Nations chiefs are already distancing themselves from “speculative” claims the tournament will operate behind a paywall under a new television rights deal worth an estimated £300m but are not ruling the controversial move out of the question.
Bids for rights to the next Six Nations broadcast package are expected to be lodged before the final weekend of the regular tournament on March 14 and officials today insisted any details of potential bids and their ramifications for free-to-air access for fans was “highly premature.”
Personally, I think that moving to Sky or another pay broadcaster would be a sad thing. If it goes onto Sky they may be able to offer sponsors more in terms of break bumpers and exposure because it’s a commercial channel, but terrestrial television picks up millions of viewers who may like a bit of rugby but they would not be prepared to pay for the privilege.
One understands the need to maximise revenues for the Unions but stopping people from seeing the national team certainly hasn’t helped participation in Cricket which went down a similar road in 2006.
England’s 2005 Ashes series had led to record television audiences for the thrilling climax to the Old Trafford Ashes Test match with an audience peaking at 7.7 million viewers on Monday evening - 42% of all people watching TV at the time - as England failed to capture the last Australian wicket to win the Test.
Now a whole generation has not seen England play cricket on TV. The chase for money is of course inevitable but a sad reflection of the priorities of our Sports Body leadership. One can be hope that Rugby does think again and not take the World’s best tournament off terrestrial TV.
Against this background, let look ahead to the two remaining fixtures that are currently still scheduled for this weekend:
England v Wales
Wales have not lost three Six Nations games on the bounce since the 2007 Championship when Gareth Jenkins’ side actually suffered four straight defeats.
Warren Gatland avoided losing three consecutive championship games during his 12 years in charge, yet it is a fate which could befall his successor Wayne Pivac just a few short months into his reign when Wales take on England at Twickenham next weekend.
Gatland oversaw sustained success with four Six Nations titles, three Grand Slams and two World Cup semi-final appearances during his dozen years in charge.
Wales are still smarting from poor refereeing decisions which they believe cost them the win over France in round 3. They will absolutely not want to lose again and to face a resurgent England away at Twickenham is probably not the fixture they want to face next.
Neither has been the injury catalogue that has been testing his squad’s resources. Star winger Josh Adams was ruled out of the tournament and Pivac’s other winger George North has been undergoing head injury protocols. The complications ahead of the encounter with England at Twickenham don’t end there, though.
Hallam Amos failed a late fitness test and was forced off the bench in Cardiff’s Friday night PRO14 defeat to Edinburgh after he had been initially named in the starting XV.
Amos had recently been called back into the Wales squad by Pivac but was injured in the final minute of Cardiff’s game last weekend versus Benetton and failed to be ready in time for Friday’s kick-off at Murrayfield. He has subsequently been ruled out for the rest of the season.
With Wales also short of winger Owen Lane due to a significant hamstring injury, they were forced to improvise during the defeat to France and put midfielder Nick Tompkins on the wing during a game where Johnny McNicholl was also used off the bench. And there looked to be potentially more bad news for Wales as fly-half Dan Biggar was forced off in the first half of Northampton Saints game with Saracens with what looked to be a worrying injury.
Wayne Pivac has made several key changes to his Welsh team for the clash against England. In total there are four changes to the starting XV and two on the bench.
The talismanic British Lion Liam Williams has been recalled on the left wing in place of Josh Adams. The new Scarlets signing wasn’t given the go-ahead to feature in their Guinness PRO14 match at Munster but has been deemed fit enough to start.
Williams return will be very welcome for Wales as Leigh Halfpenny looked shaky under the high ball and Williams will be a key player if Wales are going to nullify England’s tactical kicking game.
Cardiff Blue bruiser Josh Navidi is recalled in the Welsh back row in place of Taulupe Falatau who really hasn’t looked anywhere near real match fitness. Wales have really missed the ball carrying and tackling contribution from Navidi.
Their back row has been very disappointing with very little turnover success despite adding Sam Warburton to the coaching staff for his knowledge in this area. Ross Moriarty played well against France and rewarded with another start.
For both Josh Navidi and Liam Williams, this is their first taste of Test rugby since the World Cup.
Tomos Williams is restored at Scrum Half in place of Gareth Davies who doesn’t even make the bench for this encounter with new Bath signing Rhys Webb being the understudy. Davies was very poor against France and pays the ultimate price and deservedly so. Wales have an embarrassment of riches at scrum half and with quick ball essential against England, Williams and Webb are the best providers.
Dan Biggar and George North have both shaken off their injury concerns and will start with Nick Tompkins and Hadleigh Parkes continuing their developing partnership at in the Centres.
Scarlet prop Rob Evans is recalled at Loose Head Prop in place of Wyn Jones who like Gareth Davies does not make the match day squad.
Evans will pack down with Ken Owens and Dillon Lewis in the Front row. Owens is perhaps lucky that Elliot Dee has remained unavailable and so retains the hooker shirt.
Jake Ball and Alun Wyn Jones are unchanged in the engine room.
There are changes on the bench too. In addition to the recall of Rhys Webb, Rhys Carre is added as Loose Head replacement with Leon Brown and Ryan Elias the other front row.
Aaron Shingler is preferred to Aaron Wainwright. Wasp’s Will Rowlands surprisingly has been dropped after making an impressive ball carrying cameo against Les Blues. Jarrod Evans and Johnny McNicholl complete the back replacements.
As for England, they have been building this tournament after their disappointing start in Paris. They got the bit between their teeth in the last game against Ireland and they are putting the pieces together to be once again the complete team they showed they were in the World Cup.
Eddie Jones’ team outmuscled Ireland with an enviable show of brute-force and power 10 days ago. It was a clear sign of what Wales can expect when they go in search of a first Six Nations win on English soil since 2012.
We also had the ludicrous situation this week with Mako Vunipola being excluded from the England squad under “self-isolation” after the Tongan born prop returned from his homeland on a plane via Hong Kong. The confusion that abounded after that announcement was made more complicated the news that he had re-joined the Saracen’s squad and was up for selection in this weekend’s fixtures.
The prop was reported to be in self-isolation this week after travelling through Hong Kong on the way back from Tonga. It seemed like a reasonable decision by England this week to leave him out of their Guinness Six Nations squad to face Wales this weekend amid the global coronavirus outbreak.
That was until Saracens announced on Wednesday that the loose head prop is in contention to play for them this Saturday in the Gallagher Premiership against Leicester Tigers.
Confusion has since ensued as no one can really make sense of the matter and no one can make out who is in the right in this situation.
Conversely, the Rugby Football Union have been accused of overreacting while Saracens have come under fire for perhaps ignoring rules set out. Either way, this is a bizarre stalemate that neither party would have wanted.
England boss Eddie Jones has made two changes to the side that beat Ireland for the visit of Wales in the Six Nations this weekend.
Bath speedster Anthony Watson is straight back into the starting side having overcome calf problems that prevented him from taking part in the first three rounds of the championship.
He takes the place of Bath team-mate Jonathan Joseph, who played there during 24-12 win a fortnight ago, an inclusion that results in Jonny May swopping from right to left-wing with Elliot Daly completing the back three.
Mark Wilson is the surprise selection and comes in to start at openside flanker in place of Sam Underhill, who misses out through injury.
Captain Owen Farrell and Manu Tuilagi form a formidable midfield partnership with Ben Youngs partnering George Ford at half-back.
An all-British Lions front five of Joe Marler, Jamie George, Kyle Sinckler, Maro Itoje and George Kruis start.
Tom Curry continues to wear the No.8 on his back and Courtney Lawes is at blindside flanker.
The bench remains unaltered. Hooker Luke Cowan-Dickie, as well as props Ellis Genge and Will Stuart, are named as finishers alongside Joe Launchbury, Charlie Ewels, Ben Earl, Willi Heinz and Henry Slade.
England’s kick-powered game was brought back at Twickenham with roaring success, using some of the smartly targeted attacking kicks that they have profited from in the past to exploit weaknesses in Ireland’s defence.
England’s whole game is predicated on territorial advancement and it will only be a few phases, even in the so called “red zone” of the field, before a kick is threaded through.
In the red zone, it is often a low hard grubber kick towards the side-line to force the opposition into an exit play which, in turn, often gives England a great attacking lineout to launch from.
England scored over 30 points in every Six Nations clash in 2019 except against Wales – the only team that runs a two-back defensive system.
Wales choked England’s kicking game, offering no space for kicks to find the grass, which then failed to generate tries for them. Even when hanging on by a thread with the backfield compromised, they came through.
As I have stated multiple times, England’s game plan is based on early domination of the match. The early two-try lead of 14-0 inside the first half an hour was insurmountable for Ireland, but they won the second half 12-7, showing just how critical those early scores have become.
England have to be applauded for the execution of their plan, which changed the complexion of the game and forced Ireland to chase from behind against a ferocious and powerful defensive unit.
Ireland’s defensive system has to consider changing for the circumstances. It’s two years in a row now that the same opponent has won basically through kick coverage errors.
Only time will tell if Ireland explores other options, while England will find it much harder to score in this fashion against Wales, as they found last year in Cardiff. They will also need to change their attacking approach as what worked against Ireland will be less likely to work against Wales.
Wales have the chance to put the disappointments of the loss to France behind them and we know heading to London they need to be much more clinical in attack and convert the opportunities that they create.
Wales didn’t deserve to beat France despite a strong last 20 minutes. France had beaten Wales up front and the Welsh defensive set up is really not working too well to compared to their previous high standard.
Based purely on form, it’s hard to be too optimistic about Wales chances to win at Twickenham. If Wales don’t match England physically then they have got no chance.
In the last match in 2018, Wales made the worst possible start as a clever kick from Owen Farrell allowed Johnny May to gain the crucial early score. Wales fought back hard but eventually that early score cost them the match.
Wales will have to go and meet them up front as a pack and back-line
especially in their back-yard at Fortress Twickenham. England pride themselves on having a big and physical pack with a few big backs, so Wales will know exactly what is coming.
Sadly, I don’t see Wales stepping up. The changes are welcome and will make the game closer but I don’t think they will quite have enough on this occasion. Their defensive pattern is certainly not what it was and was very disappointing against Ireland and France.
The Welsh line out is hit and miss and I also worry about the breakdown and scrummage. I think England’s pack will be far too strong on this occasion and I fear it won’t be as close an encounter. England by (at least) two scores.
England 25 Wales 13
Scotland v France
Scotland are aiming for a third consecutive Six Nations’ win at Murrayfield against France in what will be the 11th time the two sides have played at Murrayfield in a Six Nations’ match. That may not sound like much but it’s something that the dark blues have only achieved once before in the post-war period.
Getting that third win is going to require either Scotland’s improved defence standing up to a battering or a flurry of points for the Scots themselves. France average 21 points a game at Murrayfield in the last decade and managed 26 and 18 even in the two recent defeats.
Scotland’s win against a very poor Italy team ranked below Georgia in World rankings, is irrelevant in itself. It will only matter if Gregor Townsend’s squad gets a boost to confidence, a little wind in their sails for the last two matches, some much-needed momentum, and perhaps one more win?
They badly need it because Scotland can play a lot better than they showed against the Azzurri. At least you hope that Scotland will play a lot better, with some confidence flowing through their veins again.
Scotland look like a side struggling for confidence, fluffing several open goals and going into their shells for much of the Italian encounter. Their squad has morphed in a matter of months from a team that throws the ball wide at every opportunity, as they did against Ireland in the World Cup, to a side that almost never does, as happened in Rome.
They need some balance. A side needs the confidence to move the ball wide and the smarts to know when and where to do so. This Scotland side is still groping their way, overly conservative in the opposition red zone, with one-out passes that failed to breach the Italian defence and won’t get much joy from France either.
There are some positive aspects too. The defence has looked much more secure since Steve Tandy took over. Rory Sutherland had the ultimate compliment of seeing the back of his Italian tighthead after just 30 minutes of play and, of course, the breakdown where Hamish Watson and Jamie Ritchie picked Italian pockets all afternoon.
Fraser Brown is set to win his 50th cap for Scotland and the hooker will become just the 43rd person to reach the landmark for Scotland if he features at BT Murrayfield on Saturday.
Edinburgh lock Lewis Carmichael and Exeter Chiefs forward Sam Skinner have been added to the Scotland squad for the final two rounds of the 2020 Guinness Six Nations but winger Darcy Graham will miss out through injury.
Carmichael has two Scotland caps to his name – both of which came on the 2018 summer tour to North America – but could add to that number after impressing in the Guinness PRO14 for Edinburgh this term.
The 24-year-old has been added to Gregor Townsend’s 37-man group for the Round 4 clash with France at BT Murrayfield and the final-day trip to Cardiff to take on Wales.
Meanwhile, the most recent of the versatile Skinner’s six international appearances came last summer in a World Cup warm-up match against France before a hamstring injury ruled him out of the World Cup itself.
The 25-year-old wasn’t deemed match-fit enough to play a part in the Round 3 victory over Italy last time out but, after completing 80 minutes for club side Exeter this weekend, he has been restored to the squad.
However, flying winger Graham will miss out on the rest of the 2020 Championship with an ongoing knee injury. The Edinburgh man had returned to training ahead of the Azzurri fixture but a setback means he won’t be fit enough to play a part in Rounds 4 or 5 as Scotland aim to build on their 17-0 triumph in Rome.
Scotland’s game plan still needs quick ball to function at its best. The precision hasn’t been there at times, leading to lost possessions so far this Six Nations – that has to improve if they’re going to break down the French.
As for France, their win in Cardiff has continued their progress towards that illusive Grand Slam. For all the excitement that the ‘old’ France are back and here to entertain us, there’s still a healthy dose of pragmatism in their play. They’ve kicked the ball 102 times. The only reason any other team in the championship comes close is that England’s tally of 100 kicks is inflated by booting the ball 43 times in a gale at Murrayfield in Round 2.
In the right circumstances, the French will definitely look to run the ball but when faced with the option to kick, pass or run they have opted to kick 18% of the time
That number is also influenced by the fact that France pass the ball less than any of the other teams – they’re the only one of the Six Nations with fewer passes than carries, which points to a lot of pick and goes and close in rumbles.
Essentially the French are happy to get the ball in front of them and try to force mistakes from the opposition. A typical Shaun Edwards tactic - that’s lead to them attempting more tackles than any of the other sides – 688, which is over 200 more than Scotland. Shaun Edwards’ defence or not, that’s put a strain on the thin “bleu” line and their tackle completion is only marginally ahead of Italy’s.
All this means Scotland will get chances to win possession and attack. First up they need to compete well in the air. Then once the ball is secured, try and find where the French chase is thinnest. Unlike at club level the quality of scramble defence is so good that one line break won’t necessarily mean a try. The Scots need to keep going until they’ve finished the job and not get bogged down in the 22 as has happened so many times already this season.
French defensive work has led to some of the slowest ruck ball around for their opposition. There’s no real, traditional jackal in the French back row but they’re an exceptionally powerful unit who will slow things up in the tackle and make life incredibly difficult for securing the ball on the ground.
France also have to stop their 2nd half concentration drops. They have conceded 29 points during the final quarter of this season’s Six Nations matches. Only Italy (30) have conceded more in this period.
By contrast, Les Bleus have scored 38 points in the opening quarters of the same games. That’s just 7 points fewer than the other five countries combined.
The French scrum has the worst rate of offending in the tournament. They’ve conceded 9 penalties and free kicks while winning just 2.
The French team will not be announced until Friday – after Rugby Raconteur is published. I do see some changes though as coach Fabien Galthié seeks the winning formula for Edinburgh.
Jefferson Poirot looks likely to start in place of Cyril Baille, who is out of the match with a dislocation of the left shoulder, whilst winger Teddy Thomas is likely to be replaced by Damian Penaud.
The Racing flyer will probably pay price for his defensive wanderings accused against Wales, two weeks ago, in Cardiff . Clemont winger Penaud, has fully recovered from his calf injury which will allow the French team to keep the Centre pairing of Vincent & Vakatawa who were so convincing against Wales. Gaël Fickou likely to keep his place on the left wing.
Jean-Baptiste Gros, is likely to sit on the substitutes' bench again.
Hooker Camille Chat (calf) and Second row Paul Willemse (ankle) are both injury doubts although Willemse is thought to be ruled okay. Chat is a real worry and his fitness will be studied day by day before the final selection decision is made.
Scotland have a real chance to create an upset. France were hanging on against Wales and rather generously avoided a yellow card and penalty try for Willemse’s blatant deliberate knock on. They certainly can’t afford to be anything but their best.
I actually believe this will be a genuine close contest for much of the game. Scotland have nothing to lose and like Wales against England if they can front up in the pack and starve the French backs of quality ball then they can cause a huge upset.
The French juggernaut has its sights firmly set on a first Grand Slam since 2010 after years in the international doldrums, and nothing that we have seen thus far in the tournament suggests that Scotland will be their banana skin.
In Gregory Alldritt, Antoine Dupont, and Romain Ntmack, Les Bleus have three of the tournament's in-form players, and with World Cup star Damian Penaud expected to return to the starting XV, this should be a routine victory for the Shaun Edwards-boosted French side.
Scotland 16 France 25
Wow! A lot here to digest Rodders.
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