Saturday 1st February sees the opening round of the 2020 Guinness Six Nations Championship. With the fall out from Saracens fall from grace still rankling with many players – will England be able to leave that at the door when they journey to Paris?
Can Scotland recover from the controversy about Finn Russell’s walk out from training to gain anything in Dublin?
And will see the much-vaunted talk of a new expansive game from Wales as they take on Italy in Cardiff?
Lets’ see your correspondent’s predictions:
Wales v Italy
First up on Saturday afternoon is Italy travel to Cardiff to face the new look Wayne Pivac powered Wales. The Six Nation’s perennial basement dwellers couldn’t face a tougher first game and it will be a real baptism of fire for Pivac and his new look back room team.
Wales have won the last 12 meetings with Italy in the Six Nations, scoring an average of 35 points against the Azzurri and conceding an average 11 points per game – a 24 point average advantage. Eight of those 12 wins have seen the Welsh win by 15 points or more. Their consistent discipline, defensive set up and physical strength mean they are potentially capable of over-performing way above their implied probability.
Wayne Pivac has stayed with experience with just one uncapped player in his starting XV to kick-off the 2020 Guinness Six Nations with Scarlets wing Johnny McNicholl earning his first international cap.
The Scarlets flyer who controversially qualifies by residence, is in top form and I thought he played really well against the Barbarians in the Autumn friendly - so it is a great opportunity for him this weekend.
McNicholl lines up in a side packed with experience. He is joined in the back three by Josh Adams and Leigh Halfpenny.
Hadleigh Parkes is at 12 and the surprise selection is George North as his partner in midfield, with North making his only fifth start in the centre berth for his country.
North certainly hasn’t brought the house down in the two outings he’s had at outside centre for the Ospreys recently. But he has defended well enough and did his best to to get over the gain-line.
Pivac evidently hopes that with better quality ball, the 94-cap former Scarlet will be able to make an even bigger mark for Wales, especially in the matter of crossing the advantage line. In picking the 6ft 4in, 17st 2lb North alongside Parkes, Wales will hope they have a midfield duo to put them on the front foot and allow opportunities to open up out wide for the likes of Josh Adams and Johnny McNicholl.
Tomos Williams wins the scrum half battle and partner Dan Biggar line-up in the half-backs.
Wyn Jones, Ken Owens and Dillon Lewis comprise the front row with Jake Ball partnering captain Alun-Wyn Jones in the second row. Aaron Wainwright and Justin Tipuric are joined by Taulupe Faletau in the back row, with the No.8 making his first international appearance since March 2018.
Wales have been rocked with injuries in their training camp with Blues wing Owen Lane already out for the entire Six Nations. The aggressive Josh Navidi picked up a hamstring injury and so he is out for a few weeks, while Liam Williams, Owen Watkin, Gareth Davies and Elliot Dee were all a risk and were not deemed quite ready to be available for selection.
On the bench uncapped Saracens centre Nick Tompkins is named alongside Rhys Webb and Jarrod Evans as the backline cover. Tompkins has apparently impressed during training with the squad and there is a case for believing he is a shade unlucky not to be starting. But he’s a quality option for Pivac and there’s likely to be a cap for him off the bench in Saturday’s encounter.
Webb is fast traced back with Gareth Davies being unfit and he will add a variation coming off the bench in the second half when Italy are tiring.
Ryan Elias, Rob Evans and Leon Brown will cover the front row with Cory Hill and Ross Moriarty completing the forward contingent.
Disappointingly, there is no place in the matchday 23 for uncapped 18-year-old Gloucester wing Louis Rees-Zammit. That’s a missed opportunity for me as this is the perfect match to blood new youngsters.
New Italy coach Franco Smith is clearly going to be up against it, especially as he is only an interim appointment. Italy have lost 22 Six Nations games on the spin - a run stretching back to 2015 – and they will be saying goodbye this season to their long time icon - Sergio Parisse.
Smith has included one new cap in his team to face Wales in the Guinness Six Nations on Saturday.
Taking over from Conor O’Shea, who failed to net the Italians a single victory during his three Six Nations campaigns in charge, Smith has opted to give 21-year-old Niccolo Cannone his debut while also rejigging the backline where Leonardo Sarto appears for the first time in over two years and Carlo Canna is positioned at inside centre.
Wasps’ Matteo Minozzi and Mattia Bellini will join Sarto in the back three, with Canna teaming up with Luca Morisi in midfield alongside a half-back partnership of Tommaso Allan and Gloucester’s Callum Braley.
No.8 Abraham Steyn will be supported by Sebastian Negri and Jake Polledri, another Gloucester inclusion. Veteran Alessandro Zanni will support rookie Cannone – who has featured in the local Italian league with Petrarca this season along with PRO14’s Benetton – at lock while the front row comprises of Zebre trio Andrea Lovotti, skipper Luca Bioji and Giosue Zilocchi.
Expect a brutal start. For Italy to seriously compete with Wales, they need their front five to step up and give them a platform. They must give their backs consistently quicker ball than they’ve been getting these last few years to get the opportunity to run at Wales and test their experimental midfield.
I expect to see a continued strong Welsh defence and like many hope for a more expansive attacking flair. Wales will have too much power and if quick ball gets to the backs then expect some fireworks. The dragon will roar and a comfortable Welsh victory with a bonus point.
Wales 34 Italy 10
Ireland v Scotland
Second match of Saturday’s line up sees Scotland travel to Dublin to face Ireland. They will be hoping for a better performance than the damp squib of the World Cup group contest in Yokohama in September where the Scots were blown away losing 27-3.
Several experienced players have since retired from international rugby including Greig Laidlaw, John Barclay and Tommy Seymour.
Scottish preparations have been rocked by incidents in the past week and they could not have been worse for this contest. Firstly, we had the sacking/walk out of the mercurial Finn Russell. The 27-year-old was disciplined for a breach of team protocol following an incident at the team hotel on January 19 when he was involved in a late-night drinking session.
Russell turned down an offer to stay in camp and help Scotlandprepare for Saturday’s opener at the Aviva Stadium against Ireland, instead playing for his club Racing 92 last weekend.
Russell and Scottish coach Gregor Townsend have some history but losing your star player just days before the first match through ill-discipline does not give good omens to an already stretched Scottish squad. Townsend’s press statements this week do not show a happy camp and lay the blame firmly at Russell who equally doesn’t seem too bothered given the scenes for Racing 92 this past weekend.
Secondly, the squad have been rocked by the loss of winger Darcy Graham, who is set to miss the opening rounds of the Six Nations with a knee injury sustained in training this week. The 22-year-old Edinburgh back has been in outstanding form and would have almost certainly started against Ireland.
Gregor Townsend makes a total of ten changes from the XV that played in the World Cup pool defeat at the hand of Japan.
Stand-off Adam Hastings has given the critical job of replacing Finn Russell at outside half. The 23-year-old Glasgow Warriors player will earn his 17th cap and Scotland will be looking for him to add both flair and stability. Hastings will get his chance to prove he can plot a route to success after being handed the number 10 jersey for the Dublin opener.
Ali Price is at scrum half, with Greig Laidlaw now retired and will partner Hastings in an new look half back pairing.
Edinburgh’s summer signing Nick Haining, who joined from Premiership outfit Bristol Bears, is a surprising call at No.8, but one that equally warrants a start which will be his first cap for Scotland.
The 29-year-old is slightly fortuitous with injuries to Magnus Bradbury, Blade Thomson and Matt Fagerson, but there would still be a compelling case for him to start.
The five repeat picks are new skipper Stuart Hogg, Sam Johnson, James Ritchie, Jonny Gray and Fraser Brown.
Edinburgh prop Rory Sutherland will make his first international appearance in three-and-a-half years.
Huw Jones, who has been on top form lately, is recalled starting in the centres alongside Sam Johnson after not being selected for last autumn’s World Cup, while new captain Stuart Hogg forms an explosive back-three with Sean Maitland and Blair Kinghorn.
This weekend’s opening match also sees Ireland finally move on from the Joe Schmidt era when Andy Farrell takes charge of his first game as head coach. When Farrell was announced as Schmidt’s successor in late 2018, he could hardly have imagined how drastically the job description and team morale was about to change.
After a hugely successful 2018 season which included a Grand Slam, a first series win in Australia since 1979 and a first ever home win against the All Blacks, Ireland had high hopes of adding the World Cup. Boom. Reality hit them early and they were a shadow of themselves in 2019.
A hugely disappointing Six Nations was followed by yet another demoralising quarter-final exit at the World Cup. Now, Farrell and Ireland find themselves with a huge rebuilding job on his hands.
In total Farrell makes five changes from the side that was beaten 46-14 by New Zealand in the World Cup quarter-final in October.
He has chosen a starting back three of Jordan Larmour, Andrew Conway and Jacob Stockdale.
Leinster's Jordan Larmour is named at full-back in place of veteran Rob Kearney, who was excluded from the squad chosen a fortnight ago, while Conway gets in ahead of Munster colleague Keith Earls.
He has chosen a starting back three of Jordan Larmour, Andrew Conway and Jacob Stockdale.
Leinster's Jordan Larmour is named at full-back in place of veteran Rob Kearney, who was excluded from the squad chosen a fortnight ago, while Conway gets in ahead of Munster colleague Keith Earls.
It is somewhat surprising that Andy Farrell has only included one uncapped player in his starting XV as he looks to begin his reign with a victory over Scotland. He hands Leinster’s Caelan Doris his debut at No. 8 for the Aviva Stadium opener.
The 21-year-old Leinster player has impressed for the unbeaten province, scoring three tries in his 10 appearances this season.
There could also be a first cap off the bench for Ronan Kelleher, Doris’ provincial colleague, as he was selected as back up to starting hooker Ulster’s Rob Herring. Herring having taken over from retired captain Rory Best at hooker.
Garry Ringrose is paired with Bundee Aki at midfield. Aki makes his return to the starting XV after suspension ruled him out of the quarter-final where Ringrose lined up alongside the now benched Robbie Henshaw.
Despite the widespread clamour for John Cooney’s inclusion at scrum-half, Farrell has decided to keep Conor Murray at half-back along with new skipper Johnny Sexton.
Conor Murray was once un-droppable for Ireland, and while he’s not been playing badly for Munster since returning from the World Cup, Ulster’s Cooney is arguably the form scrum-half in Europe.
At 29, Cooney is just one year younger than Murray, but has won just eight caps, 70 less than the Munster man. He has lifted his game to a new level this season and could not be doing more to argue his case to have started this match. Not only does he do all the basics right, he has made a habit of producing moments of magic in big games.
Given how often Sexton has been a far less reliable kicker during recent Ireland games, Cooney’s reliability from the tee would also be a handy bonus. Murray will have him breathing down his neck throughout the tournament..
The front row is made up of Cian Healy, Herring and Tadgh Furlong with Iain Henderson and James Ryan named at lock. Ryan has rising status amongst the world’s second row forwards and this tournament gives him the opportunity to lay down a case as a Lions selection for 2021.
In the back row, newcomer Doris will pack down with CJ Stander and Josh van der Flier. Peter O’Mahony loses out from the World Cup starting XV as he hasn’t been doing enough in general play to guarantee his place in the team and settles for a place on a bench that also includes the return of Devin Toner, the headline omission by Schmidt when he chose his 31 for the finals in Japan.
This will be an interesting encounter between the two Celtic nations. Ireland have the home advantage and a largely stable line up. I fear that Scotland without Finn Russell lack that X factor to change strategies mid game. The battle will come down to who starts the stronger and takes the early advantage. Ireland started quickly against Scotland in their last two outings and Scotland never recovered.
I believe the Irish forwards will prove too strong for the Scottish pack and they will dominate possession. Scotland will struggle to have enough quick ball to be able to compete. Ireland with a bonus point victory.
Ireland 44 Scotland 10
France v England
Last game of the first round is the one most fan’s will be whetting their lips with excitement. England face a tall order to kick off their Six Nations campaign, up against a new look France side in “Le Crunch” on Sunday afternoon in Paris.
Travelling away to Paris for your opening fixture is never easy as Wales found put last year, and England will want to avoid the shock defeat they had in their last visit to the French capital in 2018 where France claimed a tense 22-16 victory to end England's hopes of retaining their Six Nations title.
We are on the eve of a potentially exciting new era in French rugby and that is something which all rugby fans should be joyful of. France – on the rare occasions they are fully firing; have the rare ability to cause huge upsets whilst playing some magnificent rugby. That unpredictability makes France an exciting prospect as you are never sure which team will show up.
This year’s tournament marks the beginning of a new four-year Rugby World Cup cycle that will culminate in a competition on home soil for France. The last French hosted World Cup in 2007 was a great Tournament where France won a stunning victory over New Zealand in the quarter final before falling short in the semi-final with an agonising 14-9 defeat to England where Jonny Wilkinson landed a penalty and drop-goal in the last five minutes to stun France and send England through.
This year’s tournament marks the beginning of a new four-year Rugby World Cup cycle that will culminate in a competition on home soil for France. The last French hosted World Cup in 2007 was a great Tournament where France won a stunning victory over New Zealand in the quarter final before falling short in the semi-final with an agonising 14-9 defeat to England where Jonny Wilkinson landed a penalty and drop-goal in the last five minutes to stun France and send England through.
The French Rugby Federation (FFR) know full well that Les Bleus rugby’s performances on the field have simply not been good enough in recent years for that proud rugby nation especially when one takes account of their financial resources and player pool. For that to happen again at a home Rugby World Cup would be an acutely embarrassing situation for them and French rugby fans.
France have been dealt a major blow ahead of their opening Guinness Six Nations clash against England with the news that hooker Camille Chat will miss the game through injury. Racing 92’s 21 year-old Teddy Baubigny has replaced him and comes into the squad after an impressive domestic season so far.
Baubigny is the third uncapped player to join the French squad this week, alongside centre Yvan Reilhac from Montpellier and Bordeaux-Begles back-rower Alexandre Roumat who replaced Kylan Hamdaoui and Dylan Cretin respectively who are also suffering with fitness issues in an injury-hit week for Les Bleus.
New France head coach Fabien Galthié has wasted no time putting his own stamp on the squad and there is a youthful element on his first team that the former Stade Français, Montpellier and Toulon coach has assembled. He has named two debutants in his France team as Charles Ollivon leads a very young French side.
Mohamed Haouas starts at tighthead prop, while his Montpellier colleague Anthony Bouthier gets the nod at full-back, with a further two uncapped players among the replacements.
Racing 92’s Boris Palu and Bordeaux-Bègles’ Cameron Woki could make their Test bows if they come off the bench.
While it is a young side, the core of the team remains from the World Cup, with Ollivon captaining in the back row alongside Grégory Alldritt, with the pair joined by François Cros to form the same trio that impressed against Scotland in a warm-up match in Nice.
Julien Marchand makes his first Test start at hooker, with Guilhem Guirado retired and is joined by Toulouse teammate Cyril Baille in the front row.
Bernard Le Roux continues in the second row alongside Paul Willemse, with Palu offering cover off the bench.
The backline has a familiar feel. France have named Romain Ntamack at fly-half for Sunday’s opener against England. Ntamack joins Antonie Dupont at half-back after edging Matthieu Jalibert for the role of the conductor in chief while Gaël Fickou and Virimi Vakatawa slot into the midfield. France’s dangerman is outside centre Virimi Vakatawa, who has been in devastating form for Racing 92 this season.
Damian Penaud keeps his place on the wing, with Racing’s Teddy Thomas back to start opposite him.
The bench has some experience alongside the uncapped duo, Jefferson Poirot and Baptiste Serin both included, while Demba Bamba and Peato Mauvaka will look to build on their first steps in international rugby last season.
Matthieu Jalibert is also rewarded for his fine form since recovering from a knee injury with a spot among the replacements, alongside La Rochelle back-three flyer Vincent Rattez.
As first tests come, it really doesn’t get much bigger or tougher for France than Le Crunch against England. This is a game that can set a tone. If Galthié’s young guns can see off England on home soil, the mood among French supporters and players will be jubilant. They probably don’t need to necessarily win, either. They simply have to show heart, progress and endeavour and that they can be competitive.
However, if France are to lose heavily in Paris to their biggest rivals, young squad or not; the doubts will creep in once again. No one is set for a roller coaster Six Nations as intriguing, experimental or with such boom or bust potential as France, and that’s exactly the way we all like it.
Rugby Raconteur goes to press on the Thursday before the weekend fixtures – so sadly I cannot confirm England’s starting XV. I do not expect to see too many revolutionary changes for England but with Owen Farrell having the captain’s armband – he is one certain starter. Whether he plays Fly Half or Centre will be interesting. The most intriguing selection will be who starts at No.8 in the absence of Billy Vunipola.
I expect Northampton Saints Lewis Ludlam to get the nod at 8 with Tom Curry and Sam Underhill forming a solid Back row. Gloucester’s Willi Heinz may get the nod at scrum half, Ford and Farrell will be the 10-12 axis and it wouldn’t surprise me to see Anthony Watson at full back and Elliott Daly on the wing. Courtney Lawes and George Kruis fighting to partner Itoje in the boiler room.
Luke Cowan-Dickie could miss England's opener against after returning home from the squad's Portugal training base for family reasons.
Cowan-Dickie, Eddie Jones' second-choice hooker behind Jamie George, departed the Algarve on Tuesday night. If he is unable to re-join England in time for Friday's team announcement, Bath front row Tom Dunn will be given the chance to make his debut off the bench in Paris with Jack Singleton on standby to be called up as cover.
England will have the advance of experience over youth and the start will be critical. If France can hold off an early England score and gain a couple of penalties – then, just then – we could have a contest on our hands. I think England’s power and superior nowse will be just enough to see them home. Tighter than you might think…
France 13 England 20
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