Thursday, January 31, 2019

Round 1 - Enter the Gladiators

Round 1 Previews

It’s finally here and the opening round of the 2109 Guinness Six nations see three cracking contests. Lets’ see your correspondent’s predictions:

France v Wales


First up in the cold evening air in Paris is the Friday night fixture where perennial underachievers France take on the might of the Welsh Dragons in a match Welsh coach Warren Gatland has claimed will be their toughest.

It’s no secret that travelling to France is never the easier opener and Wales have a dreadful record in Friday night fixtures. The Welsh have been involved in 7 out of 8 Friday night matches and have won only three of those matches – all at home. Victory for Wales at Stade de France would extend their unbeaten run to 10 games, matching a longest winning sequence since 1999. Their last defeat was against Ireland in last season's Six Nations.

Despite the early start, Wales were handed some good news this week with a largely fully fit squad to choose from. The major selection news form the principality sees Tomos Williams make his Six Nations debut for Wales. The Cardiff Blues scrum-half, who featured in six Tests last year, has been preferred to Gareth Davies for the game in Paris.

Head coach Warren Gatland has announced two other changes from the side who beat South Africa in November, with Scarlets prop Rob Evans and Blues flanker Josh Navidi both gaining call-ups. 

Evans takes over from Nicky Smith, who has been battling to recover fitness, and Navidi returns after missing this season's entire autumn series because of injury.

Davies, meanwhile, has shaken off a thigh strain, but he will be among the replacements as Wales target a seventh win from their last eight starts against Les Bleus.

Williams, 24, is partnered at half-back by his Blues colleague Gareth Anscombe, with Dan Biggar joining Davies on the bench.

Number eight Ross Moriarty makes a first appearance since mid-December after being side-lined because of concussion, packing down in the back-row alongside Navidi and openside flanker Justin Tipuric.

Leigh Halfpenny misses out as he continues his recovery from concussion, with Liam Williams retaining full-back duties and George North and Josh Adams being selected on the wings.

In France, Les Bleus kick off their campaign against a side they have only beaten once in the last seven years.

They also face tricky trips to Twickenham and the Aviva Stadium to face England and Ireland, who are fourth and second in the world rankings, respectively.

Coach Jacques Brunel has recalled scrum half Morgan Parra and centre Wesley Fofana after the Clermont duo missed the November series through injury, handing both of them a start on Wednesday for the Stade de France clash.
Jacques Brunel has named uncapped Romain Ntamack in his starting XV for France’s Guinness Six Nations opener against Wales at the Stade de France on Friday night.

The 19-year-old, who was part of France’s Under-20s World Cup-winning side, wins his first cap alongside Wesley Fofana with Mathieu Bastareaud not included in the 23-man squad.

Ntamack, the son of ex-Les Bleus winger Emile, has become a regular for Toulouse this year and is the youngest player in any Six Nations squad this year.

The backline also sees Morgan Parra and Camille Lopez reunited for France in the half-back pairing for the first time since the 2015 Championship.
South African-born Paul Willemse, who qualifies for his adoptive country on residency grounds after spending more than three years with Top 14 clubs Montpellier and Grenoble, is also included.

Guilhem Guirado will again captain the side as part of a giant front row that includes Jefferson Poirot and Uini Antonio, with Sébastian Vahaamahina and Willemse in the engine room.

Wenceslas Lauret, Arthur Iturria and Louis Picamoles complete the pack, while Maxime Médard, Damian Penaud and Yoann Huget will also start the opener against Warren Gatland’s side.

La Rochelle’s Grégory Alldritt is named on the bench and could be the third debutant for Les Bleus in the encounter.

Expect a tight encounter but Wales will have too much savvy for this French side and I expect a comfortable Welsh victory despite a few heart stopping moments along the way.

France 19 Wales 26

Scotland v Italy


Italy normally will have reasonable hopes of being competitive against Scotland. They have beaten Scotland on 7 occasions out of the 19 meetings between the sides since their admittance to the Six Nations in 

This match tends to be their best chance of gaining any Six Nations momentum although their record at Murrayfield with just 2 wins out of their last 12 visits to the Scottish capital goes against them before we even look at the form and relative strengths of the two teams.  

Scotland head coach Gregor Townsend will hand a Test debut to Glasgow centre Sam Johnson for the Guinness Six Nations opener at home to Italy on Saturday.
Newcastle flanker Gary Graham, previously called up by England coach Eddie Jones, and Leicester hooker Jake Kerr could also win their first caps if they appear off the bench.

Edinburgh full-back Blair Kinghorn, meanwhile, will start on the left wing as the Dark Blues welcome the Azzurri to Murrayfield.

With Edinburgh resurgent under Richard Cockerill this season, Townsend has chosen to go with the capital outfit's tight five. Hooker Stuart McInally will squeeze in between props Allan Dell and WP Nel, with Ben Toolis and Grant Gilchrist forming the second row.

Exeter lock Sam Skinner will slot in to the back-row after showing he can fill in at flanker during his impressive introduction to the national team set-up during the autumn, with Ryan Wilson and Jamie Ritchie completing the back-row.
Skipper Greig Laidlaw will partner Racing 92 star Finn Russell in the half-backs, while Australia-born Johnson - who qualifies on residency grounds after signing for Glasgow in 2015 - lines-up alongside Huw Jones in midfield.

Stuart Hogg will again provide an attacking threat from full-back as he slots in beside Kinghorn - deputising for the injured Sean Maitland - and Tommy Seymour in the back three.

Conor O’Shea revealed a surprisingly inexperienced Italian starting XV for the match with Scotland at BT Murrayfield, with the obvious exceptions of Sergio Parisse and Leonardo Ghiraldini, who between them boast 233 international caps.

The evergreen Sergio Parisse will set a new Guinness Six Nations record on Saturday afternoon when he lines up against Scotland for his 66th appearance in the tournament. 

The Azzurri skipper starts at No.8, going clear of Brian O’Driscoll’s previous total of 65, when Conor O’Shea’s side line up at BT Murrayfield.

But the captain, who returns to the side after missing the Autumn Internationals through injury, is not the only Italian player celebrating a milestone.
Leonardo Ghiraldini wins his 100th cap as he starts at hooker, flanked either side by Andrea Lovotti and Simone Ferrari.

Behind them, The German-born former England U20 player David Sisi is the only debutant for the Italians. Sisi is handed his debut at second row, and will provide the firepower in the engine room alongside Dean Budd, while Sebastian Negri and Abraham Steyn start alongside Parisse.

In the backs, Luca Morisi gets the nod with Tommaso Castello in the midfield, with Jayden Hayward, Angelo Esposito and Michele Campagnaro comprising the back three.

Tommaso Allan starts at fly-half, with Tito Tebaldi handed the No.9 jersey.
On the bench Zebre’s Jimmy Tuivaiti will look for his second cap after making his debut against Ireland in November, while club teammates Guglielmo Palazzani and Edoardo Padovani join him among the replacements.

Completing the 23 are Benetton quintet Luca Bigi, Cherif Traoré, Tiziano Pasquali, Federico Ruzza and Ian McKinley.

Scotland will be full of confidence and will be very keen to start the 2019 competition with a flourish at Murrayfield. At home, they have been unbeatable over the last two Championships and Italy’s visit this year is, to many people’s eyes, a dream start.

And if this is to be the year they break through into a Championship challenge, then this is a game they have to win.

And with Ireland the visitors in round two, it could be the start of something special in 2019 for the Scots.  Italy have won twice away from home since joining the Championship – and both times it came in Edinburgh.
It took a late Laidlaw penalty for them to see off Italy last year in Rome – so the challenge has been laid down.

Scotland’s challenge is to win the physical battle, which is a strength of Italian rugby. They will also have to bring energy and accuracy in order to get our campaign off to a winning start.

I don’t see anything other than a comfortable Scottish victory.

Scotland 32 Italy 14


Ireland v England


Last game of the first round is the one most fan’s will be whetting their lips with excitement. England face a tall order to kick off their Six Nations campaign, up against the reigning Grand Slam champions and 2019 bookie favourites Ireland in Dublin, where they have only won twice since 2000. This clash of the juggernauts which many believe will decide the fate of the 2019 championship. 

Last year, England lost at home to Ireland in the final round of the tournament, where a handful of miscues and mistakes led to the visitors building a 21-5 halftime lead. England never recovered with Ireland defensively holding firm to a 24-15 final victory.

England coach Eddie Jones tends to favour ‘power-based’ line ups with huge packs and a mentality of “size over skill”. The challenge with this approach is clear - if England falls behind on the scoreboard, then this approach is largely doomed to failure.  

England end up having to chase points but can only largely play a one-dimensional game seemingly unable to play with speed and width to create space. If they are to continue to play a traditional English game based around territorial kicking and muscle up front to bully the opposition, they will continue to run into problems if ir pack is dominated or the opposition gets a fast-start.

Ireland are very skilled at playing opponents who cannot out think them.  Neutralise the pack, bait them to kick away good possession, and then play the possession-based game they are experts at. This is exactly what Ireland did against Wales in Dublin last year and I can’t honestly see England causing too many hearts to flutter at the Aviva Stadium this time around.

Coach Eddie Jones has named an experienced and powerful side to face Ireland in Dublin. Manu Tuilagi will start an England game for the first time since 2014 after being named in the side. 

Owen Farrell has recovered from thumb surgery to captain the side and starts at fly-half with Henry Slade joining Tuilagi in midfield.

Tuilagi last started for the Red Rose in their summer tour of New Zealand almost five years ago but did come off the bench this past autumn in England’s impressive win over Australia.

Elsewhere, Elliot Daly holds on to the No.15 jersey and is joined by Jonny May and Jack Nowell in a dangerous attacking back three.

Up front Mako and Billy Vunipola are back in tandem for the first time this season, Mako joining Jamie George and Kyle Sinckler in the front row and Billy at No.8 with Tom Curry and Mark Wilson either side in the back row.
In the second row, Saracens teammates George Kruis and Maro Itoje are paired together.

The bench is packed with experience as the likes of George Ford, Courtney Lawes and Chris Ashton are named. While Dan Robson will make his debut if introduced, the bench is rounded out by Luke Cowan-Dickie, Ellis Genge, Harry Williams and Nathan Hughes.

That means surprisingly, there is no place in the matchday 23 for both Joe Launchbury and Mike Brown.

Joe Schmidt has no surprises and picks an experienced team to face the Rose. Robbie Henshaw has been handed his first start at full-back since making his debut in 2013.

Normally a centre, Henshaw has got the nod over 87 times capped Rob Kearney, who has not done enough to convince Schmidt of his match-sharpness after a lengthy injury lay-off.

All bar one of the former Connacht man's 36 international games have come in the midfield but it is known that he prefers more space to operate in.

The rest of the team was named along expected lines, with seven of the eight forwards who started against New Zealand in November back in harness.

The front row is made up of Cian Healy, captain Rory Best and Tadhg Furlong.
Schmidt's second row selection was simplified when Tadhg Beirne and Iain Henderson suffered injuries in the build-up so James Ryan and Devin Toner resumed their partnership.

With Dan Leavy injured, the New Zealander has opted to start with Josh van der Flier at openside. 

The Talismanic Sean O'Brien, who broke his arm against Argentina in November, is on the bench.

CJ Stander and Peter O'Mahony make up the rest of the back row.

Conor Murray makes a return to international duty for the first time since the final Test against Australia last summer to take his place at scrum-half, with World Rugby Player of the Year Johnny Sexton at out-half.

Bundee Aki and Garry Ringrose are named in the centre, with 2018 Six Nations top try-scorer Jacob Stockdale and Keith Earls on the wings.
Sean Cronin is the replacement hooker, while Dave Kilcoyne and Andrew Porter are the back-up props.

Quinn Roux provides the second row cover.

John Cooney comes in for the injured Luke McGrath, and Joey Carbery and Jordan Larmour cover the rest of the back position.

This will be a titanic challenge and England will have to start quickly7 to have any chance of success. If they give away needless penalties and start to get behind on the scoreboard then I fear, they could end up with a bit of a hiding. Farrell is the key man and he has to get his backs firing. 

The packs are evenly matched and the half back battle is clearly where the game will be won or lost. I don’t see any Joe Schmidt team losing at home and despite a tight scoreline -it will be Irish eyes that will be smiling.

Ireland 27 England 19












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