In just 7 days the 2019 Guinness Six Nations will kick off with the now customary Friday Night game in Paris. In a World Cup year, the competition will be even more intense as Warren Gatland, Joe Schmidt, and Eddie Jones all face their final Six Nations as the National coaches of Wales, Ireland and England respectively.
2018 was an exciting competition but it was hard to see beyond a single winner. Ireland sealing just their third ever Grand Slam as they looked streets ahead of all of the other contenders. Jacob Stockdale set a Six Nations record of 7 tries and was deservedly named as 2018 Player of the Tournament.
The wheels fell off England’s Chariot and the losing bonus point secured by France ensured that England finished 5th outright for the first time since 1983.
Overall there was more attacking rugby than we had seen for several seasons with 78 tries scored up from 66 in 2017. 78 tries over the 15 matches of the tournament meant an average of 5.2 tries a match which is the modern era of ducks-arse defences was a revelation.
2019 looks potentially more open as the coaches will shuffle their packs to find the magic formula which they hope will carry them home to World Cup success in Japan. The coaches have chosen 213 players in their squads jockeying for their selection moment. One of the more sobering facets of the modern game is the huge turnover in international players.
If we look back to the same time in 2015 – the same moment before a World Cup – 144 of the 208 players picked by their countries in 2015 aren’t in the 2019 squads as we reach the end of this latest World Cup cycle. That’s an incredible 69.2% casualty rate – an enormous percentage in such a short space of time.
Your correspondent has taken his jewellers eyepiece to the six runners and riders. There are only so many ways you can say it will be a tight competition, everyone can beat everyone on their day, and you don't know what France team are going to turn up.
Let’s see how I believe it will play out:
WALES
Wales come into the competition full of confidence after a run of 9 straight victories. They had a strong 2018 and have risen to 3rd in the World Rankings. They finally put Australia to the sword in the Autumn finishing off their hoodoo in fine style after impressive wins in Argentina over the summer and also over Scotland, South Africa and (potential) banana skin Tonga in the Autumn. There is renewed optimism for Gatland to end his 12-year tenure by winning the Six Nations before fellow Kiwi Wayne Pivac takes over after the World Cup.
Wales have not seen strength in depth in every position like they have in tehri current squad. The worry with Wales has always been that the 1st XV can be World class but just a few injuries and the quality would go down dramatically. Not anymore!
Wales have had an outstanding collection of back row forwards for many years and we now add to that options in 2nd row, at prop, and in all the back line where their depth is impressive. The emergence of Gareth Anscombe at Stand Off has galvanised the Welsh attacking edge and his improved goal kicking means that Wales can add different dimensions to their attack play. With Dan Biggar available off the bench to close games out with a different skills and mind set, Wales have the opportunity to transform their game plan and have yielded impressive results. The re-emergence of Wales is all the more impressive given the woeful state of Regional Rugby. No Welsh side will progress to the Quarter final stage of The European Champions Cup.
The absence of kicking machine Leigh Halfpenny cannot be overestimated as goal kickers win matches. If there is any potential weakness in Wales’s armour it could be here. As I stated, Anscombe is much improved but has yet to be shown to be as reliable when the chips are really down, and Welsh backs are against the wall.
Anscombe could be one of the stars of their tournament. His passing is flat and aggressive. George North is back to his barnstorming best and despite the Scarlets badly misfiring – the centre partnership of Hadleigh Parkes and Jonathan Davies looks likely to stay although their lack of form will a concern, but they have been very reliable for Wales in the past. If they get the ball moving through the backs they will score tries. Josh Adams has emerged as the preferred option on the other wing and has looked solid in all his Welsh performances looking like he is just waiting to emerge on the big stage. Viewer of the Gallagher Premiership will be very familiar with his exploits at Worcester and there is no doubt he knows where the try line is.
At scrum half – Wales seem to be settling around Gareth Davies with Rhys Webb in exile at Toulon. Cardiff’s exciting Tomos Williams plays with Anscombe at club level and it will be interesting to see if Gatland plays it safe or decides to give the club pair some game time together to build on their established partnership. Aled Davies provides a different option into the mix.
In the pack, Tomas Francis has added stability to the Front row and Samson Lee and the exciting Dillon Lewis will rotate to provide options at tight head. Ken Owns and Elliot Dee have the hooker slots and Wales have options in 2nd row with War Horse Alun Wyn-Jones in his likely last championship. Cory Hill, Josh Turnbull, Seb Davies, and Adam Beard and Jake Ball give Wales real options here.
In the back row – an embarrassment of riches as ever! The loss of Taulupe Faletau
and Ellis Jenkins would devastate most teams, but the selection of form players Aaron Wainwright and Tom Young give exciting promise whilst Justin Tipuric and the returning Josh Navidi bring work rate, and defensive stability.
Wales have all the blue teams away and their biggest threats England and Ireland at home. They open the tournament away in Paris in what Warren Gatland describes as probably their toughest match. Win there and the Welsh locomotive will thunder on potentially giving us a Grand Salam finale game against Ireland in Cardiff in round 5.
I believe this Welsh team will be very impressive and I’m making the big call of a Welsh Grand Slam.
Prediction: 1st (Champions and Grand Slam)
IRELAND
Ireland were the outstanding team by some distance in last years’ tournament and they have improved all year and reached a record 2nd in the World rankings. Ireland lost just one game in 2018 and who would bet against them doing the same this time around?
Ireland have home advantage on top of a stellar year in which they followed their 2-1 series triumph in Australia during the summer by winning all four of their autumn internationals, including a first ever win against New Zealand on home soil with an outstanding performance in November in Dublin. They are nailed on as the bookie’s favourite for their 2019. So, you may well ask why does your correspondent think they will fail this time? Is he just showing bias to his native Wales?
Ireland will once again be the toughest opponents in the competition. They open against England and like Wales an early win there will give them huge momentum. Week two they make the difficult journey to Murrayfield and Scotland have a god home record against Ireland and that will likely decide the fate of Ireland. Home games and wins follow against France and Italy before the final trip to Cardiff.
You have to ask the question. Is there any team in Europe capable of breaking down a well-coached cohesive unit such as Ireland? A team that is so well established, it almost picks itself.... it’s always possible that great teams can have an off day, but that's another scenario Ireland have overcome in recent years, not forgetting their get out of jail victory over France in last year’s 6N with 41 phases of possession and a drop goal by their talisman Sexton. That victory in my opinion was a turning point in Irish rugby and showed the new mental strength now ingrained in their squad and would have to say that it will take a team of greater mental strength and ingenuity to beat them. Only Wales have that potential in my view.
When it comes down to that final showdown, if Wales go into that game with eth grand Slam on the line then I back Wales to win. They have beaten Ireland at home on several key occasions and that home advantage will be key. If Ireland are going for the Slam and Wales are not – they I back Ireland to win a back to back grand slam. Simples.
As Schmidt embarks on one final tilt at a competition, he has already won three times in five years, he has been in a different class. He has made rugby in Ireland what it is today. Disruptive slide rule competency that keeps the others guessing and wondering. Aside from second row, injuries thus far have been kind to Ireland, though enforced personnel changes are inevitable over what promises to be an attritional six weeks of high intensity rugby.
Ireland have been hurt in the build-up to their opening match against England by news that Iain Henderson and Tadhg Beirne are out injured, though they can still call upon the Toner-Ryan lock partnership that started against the All Blacks, and the most impressive aspect of this Ireland side is their strength in depth.
Johnny Sexton is Mr Irreplaceable, so his recovery from his knee injury is a huge positive (though he may as well paint a target on it for the opposition for the next 10 weeks), but this Ireland side can virtually replace like-for-like in all other areas. The 33-year-old fly-half has been included in Schmidt's 38-man squad for the first two matches despite being troubled by a knee tendon injury which forced him to miss Leinster's 37-19 victory over Wasps in their final European Champions Cup pool match.
Ireland were fortunate to get off to a winning start against France in the first of last season's Six Nations fixtures when Sexton's last-minute drop goal secured a 15-13 victory in Paris, but they grew into the tournament and wrapped up the grand slam with a 24-15 win at snowy Twickenham on St Patrick's Day.
Scrum-half Luke McGrath is likely to miss all of the 6 Nations fixtures with damaged knee ligament, but Conor Murray is back from a neck injury.
Versatile forward Tadgh Beirne will miss the England and Scotland matches after sustaining a knee injury in a man-of-the-match display in Munster's 9-7 victory over Exeter last time out.
Prediction: 2nd
ENGLAND
England were odds-on favourites in the Six Nations betting to win the tournament for a third year in a row last year, but a miserable campaign saw them lose three Six Nations matches for the first time to finish in fifth place.
The autumn series proved to be more successful with victories over South Africa and Australia sandwiched between a one-point defeat by the All Blacks.
After a pretty dismal 2018 England will be hoping for a change of fortunes this year with the pressure very much on Head Coach Eddie Jones. They barely put up a fight when it came to the defence of their Six Nations title 12 months ago, ultimately finishing fifth in what heralded a disappointing year on the pitch.
A poor beginning to the year was followed-up by defeat in the first two tests in South Africa during the summer, eventually winning the third and final match in a 2-1 series defeat, a victory which, to be honest, did little to improve confidence or instil fear into their opponents.
The Autumn Internationals did provide a little more encouragement, however, with a narrow 12-11 victory over the Springboks and a 37-18 victory over Australia coming either side of a heart-breaking defeat to the All Blacks in a game which saw them cough up a 15-point lead.
The relative strengths of the teams have changed a fair bit since then, and there is no doubt that England were moderate in this tournament last season, and pretty unconvincing to my eye in the autumn. The latter comment may seem a very harsh assessment, but they need to buck their ideas up in terms of creativity.
The opening game in Dublin will focus the minds, for sure. Although England scored in the final play of the game to make it a more respectable 24-15 loss to Ireland in March, that Twickenham game could actually have panned differently on another day, despite the apparent dominance of the Irish on the scoreboard from an early stage.
England’s biggest issue is they have so much depth – they simply don’t know their best XV. They have clinical finishers in Johnny May and Jack Nowell, options at Full Back with Mike Brown, and Eliot Daly; but will the ball get that far? Centre remains a problem position. I am not a fan of Owen Farrell at 12 – I think he is far more influential at Outside Half.
I think this comes to the fore with Eddie Jones announcing a squad with four uncapped players. Ollie Thorley (Gloucester Rugby) is included for the first time and is selected alongside Ben Earl (Saracens), Dan Robson (Wasps) and Jack Singleton (Worcester Warriors).
Props Mako Vunipola (Saracens) and Ellis Genge (Leicester Tigers), second row Joe Launchbury (Wasps) and number eight Billy Vunipola (Saracens) all return from injury having not played for England since the South Africa tour last season.
There are also recalls for Jack Clifford (Harlequins) and Ollie Devoto (Exeter Chiefs) who have not featured in an England shirt since 2017 and 2016 respectively due to injuries.
Dan Cole (Leicester Tigers), who has played 82 Tests for England, returns having last played for his country against Ireland in last season’s Six Nations.
As everyone knows, England are ALWAYS a formidable set-piece outfit, where Dan Cole should be recalled at prop – though their line-out can go badly awry on occasions – but they are still lacking in the back-row against top-class sides, with the injury to their arch-snaffler Sam Underhill a massive blow to their breakdown capabilities. I’m sorry but Brad Shields should be nowhere near an England shirt.
Eddie Jones has named four uncapped players in the shape of Gloucester wing Ollie Thorley, Saracens back-row Ben Earl while Dylan Hartley misses out with Owen Farrell named as captain for an England team
The three-quarters lack X-factor for me, for all Farrell is a clinical operator at 10 – there are at least six better scrum-halves in the competition than whoever England will choose in that position. They are solid but unspectacular, and best in testing conditions (which they won’t be getting in Cardiff in round three).
I actually wouldn’t rule out an upset in Dublin, but the fact of the matter is that England play the first and third tournament favourites away in their schedule, and France may well give them a game and then some at Twickenham on Sunday week. England were lucky to come away with a 20-16 win in that fixture two years ago. Can’t see beyond a 3rd place finish.
Prediction: 3rd
FRANCE
As always it is all about which France will turn up. They remain the eternal rugby enigma. Brilliant one week and diabolical the next. France, currently ranked a lowly ninth in the World, start their Guinness Six Nations fixtures at home to Wales on February 1 and are in desperate need of a strong campaign before facing a daunting World Cup where they are in the same pool as England, Argentina, Tonga and the USA. France are currently just one above Argentina in the World rankings thanks to their shock 21-14 loss to Fiji in Paris in the final November test match. France have made at least the quarter-finals of every World Cup and have been losing finalists on three occasions but there is a real danger they could fail to get out of their pool in Japan.
The bookmakers rate their opener against Wales next week as a pick ‘em game, and certainly recent history will give their supporters plenty of optimism.
Since they went down 9-8 to France in the 2011 World Cup semi-final – and that after losing Sam Warburton with a red card – Wales have won six of their last seven against the French, and the only loss was the 20-18 reverse in that agonising injury-time-fest in this fixture in 2017.
The problem is that I rate France – and they lost just 14-13 in Cardiff last March. Warren Gatland has named the opening fixture as probably Wales’s toughest and its true – defeat here would be a disaster.
Now, everyone knows that they can throw in some shockers, and they have been responsible for two of the biggest upsets in international rugby of late, when drawing 23-23 at home to Japan in 2017 and losing 21-14 to Fiji in November. But I thought there was precious little between them, Ireland, and Wales in the tournament last year – especially as they were missing Morgan Parra, though they have enviable strength in depth in that area - and some of the score lines in a 3-0 series loss in New Zealand, getting humped in two of those, did them a disservice.
A more consistent selection process saw them make real progress last year, and they have some formidable talent coming through now to add to the metronomic reliability and solidity of Guirado, Parra and Bastareaud.
But they are without some key players, not least winger Teddy Thomas – I was a bit slow to the party in recognising his talents – and the locking glue of Yoann Maestri, while you have to be worried by their away form.
Yes, they have come very close on occasions, but it is quite a shocking stat to witness that their only victories on the road since 2015 have come in Italy twice, and against Argentina in 2016.
They have lost their last eight away from Paris, and 16 of their last 19. That ain’t great.
Hooker and stalwart Guilhem Guirado will captain the side while a fit and flying Gaël Fickou is back in the fold after injury, looking to add to his seven tries in 41 international caps.
Experienced heads form part of the squad including No.8 Louis Picamoles, scrum-half Morgan Parra and centre Mathieu Bastareaud, with the senior pros hoping to steer the side through their campaign alongside some newcomers
There are five new caps in the 31-man training group including Toulouse backs Romain Ntamack and Thomas Ramos, prop Dorian Aldegheri, La Rochelle back-rower Gregory Alldritt and Montpellier lock Paul Willemse.
The 19-year-old Ntamack has been conducting the backline at Toulouse, in the Top 14 and Europe, with great success and could be the new star of French rugby if Brunel gives him a chance.
Another name worth noting is fly-half Camille Lopez, who is back for the Six Nations having missed the 2018 Championship due to an ankle injury.
Fickou and Wesley Fofana have been mesmeric for their respective clubs, Stade Français and Clermont Auvergne. Fofana has missed the last two Six Nations campaigns through injury but he has pedigree in the Championship, scoring seven tries in 18 appearances.
Such is the competition in the midfield, centre Damian Penaud is also set to shift to the wing that is without making any of mention of that man Bastareaud as another option at centre, who is more than capable of being the most decisive player in any match where he lines up
Yacouba Camara is back row at Flanker and was impressive last year prior to a knee injury. The Montpellier man played all five matches in the 2018 Six Nations and a similar string of performances could see players cash in on points. If the starts come so will the tackles and the turnovers, which could make Camara an incredible asset to Les Bleus.
I think Wales will prove too strong in Paris and so France will be looking to beat Italy away and Scotland at home. I just think that Twickenham and Dublin will be just a bridge too far for them – so two victories this time and 4th place finish.
Prediction: 4th
SCOTLAND
Gregor Townsend had a great introduction to the Six Nations last year over-achieving significantly with impressive wins over England, France and Italy after an early wake-up call with a hammering in Cardiff. After almost two decades of malaise since Five became Six in 2000, a spark that had been lit by Vern Cotter had burned on through the rest of 2017 and 2018 by new coach Gregor Townsend.
Their form away from home remains a real concern but Scotland are more than capable of winning their games against Ireland and Wales and causing an upset or two in the championship.
Scotland are suffering with a horrendous injury list but can be encouraged by the performances of both Glasgow and Edinburgh in the European Champions Cup. Scotland have earned respect as a team who can sting the big boys on their day but are yet to prove consistent enough. While they played superbly at times in the autumn, last year they failed to get over the line against South Africa, while other Home Nations were knocking off the Springboks for fun and Ireland were just showing off by beating New Zealand.
Scotland’s woeful away record remains less a monkey on the back, more a silverback, and the supposed strides Townsend talks about when it comes to strength in depth are set to be tested again, with 20 players unavailable for the visit of Italy a week on Saturday, with particular pressure points in the key areas of front and back row. Victories in those two opening home games against Italy and Ireland would change the dynamic drastically and set Scotland up for their away tests.
The loss of Hamish Watson is probably the biggest headache facing Townsend. Scotland’s breakdown doctor Watson is out of the whole tournament after fracturing a hand playing for Edinburgh against Montpelier is a huge blow, and they apparently have doubts about at least three other leading forwards, too.
There is much to like about this Scottish squad though and, if they get their set-piece right – keeping WP Nel fit is crucial for their scrummage and hooker Stuart McInally needs to be as accurate at line-out time as he is dynamic and impressive in the loose – then we all know they have the backs to hurt any side, as England and France found out year.
Greig Laidlaw is accuracy personified from the kicking tee, while his half-back partner Finn Russell has also been ripping it up for Racing 92 this season. The half backs are absolutely fundamental to any success Scotland will have this season. Russell in particular can be infuriatingly inaccurate and hit-and-miss, but he can carve open any defence when he gets his offload game going, and he has the talent outside him.
Unlike France, their recent away record is not too bad, despite two losses and a fortunate 29-27 win in Italy on the road in this tournament last year.
They do have shades of the French about them in that they can and do lose when heavy odds-on – they went down 30-29 to the States in June – but they won in Australia in 2017 and can beat any team in this tournament on their day.
Putting in a series of winning performances has proved beyond them though and they are a frustratingly inaccurate and sloppy side on occasions, as they showed in a 26-20 loss against the Boks in November, a game that was theirs for the taking.
They also have had plenty of problems with the Italians in recent years, it was heartbreak time for Italy when Scotland nailed a late penalty to see off Italy 29-27 in Rome back in March, but that was a continuation of a series of good Italian efforts in that fixture.
Scotland may have won their last three meetings in this tournament (and three other recent internationals, too) but these matches have traditionally been a lot tighter than the handicappers predicted.
I expect Scotland to beat Italy and come close against Ireland and Wales. They could either of those games, but I don’t see Scotland winning at Fortress Twickenham and their form in Paris is not a great hope either. Can’t see more than one win sadly.
Prediction 5th
ITALY
It’s very hard to be optimistic in any way about Italy. Conor O’Shea is looking to claim their first win in the Championship in his third year at the helm. He has made minimal impact and it’s no surprise to hear rumours that the Italian Rugby Federation (FIR) have been looking at alternative coaches. The latest rumours are touting Racing 92 coaches Laurent Travers and Laurent Labit as potential replacements
O'Shea and Italy have drafted in highly-regarded former All Blacks coach Wayne Smith as a consultant. The former Ireland full-back hopes ex-Northampton coach Smith can help Italy hone their approach for the Six Nations and beyond.
Italy will start their campaign by facing Scotland at Murrayfield on February 2, with O'Shea chasing all-round improvement. O’Shea’s 31-man squad includes the returning skipper Sergio Parisse who has not appeared for his country since the 2018 Championship. But while the Stade Francais No.8’s return is an undoubted boost, the real optimism this year for the Azzurri surrounds the form of Benetton Rugby.
The Italian outfit have won five in a row in the Guinness PRO14 of late and are pushing hard for a first-ever play-off spot. The likes of Dean Budd, Tito Tebaldi and Tommaso Allan have all been key to the club’s form and will be itching to translate it to the international stage.
The breakout star last year was Seb Negri – seen by many as Parisse’s heir apparent. He caught the eye at blindside flanker but remains in this game as a lock – a real treat for the eagle-eyed players as he roams around the park getting plenty more carries in than your average lock. The absence of Jake Polledri has opened up a whole in the Italian back row.
Tackling machine Maxime Mbanda will almost certainly make the matchday 23 whilst Leonardo Ghiraldini and Simone Ferrari are also surefire starters in the front row, but the real star value looks to be in the backline.
Experienced scrum-half Tito Tebaldi has come back into favour of late for the Azzurri and served notice of his form with a hat-trick earlier this month on club duty. He could have a real impact on this game, as could another returnee in Michele Campagnaro who has bounced back from injury and looks to be approaching his best again with Wasps.
In the back three Luca Sperandio is an exciting young talent, whilst Edoardo Padovani has made his name at outside half but if selected is more likely to be given room to run in the back three.
Italy have not won at home in Rome in this Championship since 2013 – but that year they claimed impressive wins over both France and Ireland.
The Azzuri need to repeat that form this year as they begin their Championship with a trip to Edinburgh to take on Scotland – they won there back in 2015.
In Rounds 2 and 3 Wales and Ireland both come to the Eternal City before Round 4 sees them head to Twickenham to take on England.
Round 5 and Super Saturday will see the Italians return home to take on France.
I don’t see Italy winning any games and another wooden spoon looks like a sure-fire outcome.
Prediction: 6th (Wooden Spoon)
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