Friday, February 8, 2019

Round 2 – Prepare for the Unexpected…

The 2019 Guinness Six Nations started off with a bang in Round 1 with three cracking encounters.  Wales delivered the impossible performance with the biggest comeback ever in Six Nations history to triumph in Paris after trailing 16-0 at half time.

Scotland showed the Braveheart spirit running up a 30-point lead over the hapless Italians before late mistakes and lax play left a score line which did not reflect their dominance in all areas.

England had the last laugh with a performance of such dominance and power they made a mockery of Ireland’s no. 2 world ranking and destroyed Joe Schmidt’s record of 12 consecutive Six Nations home wins in Dublin.  

One clear message from Round 1 that was sent to the Tournament organisers is to end the fiasco of Friday night fixtures. Wales were robbed of many of their supporters who were stuck in the snow bound airports in Cardiff and Bristol and the poor French form and inclement weather meant that the game kicked off in front of less than 60,000 fans in a threequarters full Stadt De France.

Friday night games are a total pain is the ass for supporters and really don’t work so it was worrying to hear Tournament supremo Benjamin Morel talk of expanding with more Friday matches. Enough is enough – it’s spoiling the craic for all supporters. Move on please and re-consider.

Round 1 in a nut shell - 3 great games and 3 reasons why this is the greatest rugby tournament in the world. 

Can round 2 live up to the standard?   Let’s assess the key matches:


SCOTLAND v IRELAND

First up in the Saturday early kick off sees Ireland travel to face Scotland at BT Murrayfield. This was always going to be a close encounter but with Ireland’s humiliation in Dublin and Scotland’s fine win in Round 1 – your correspondent is licking his lips with anticipation of another close and thrilling encounter. 

Joe Schmidt’s title holders entered the championship as favourites to retain their crown, but, after suffering an opening weekend defeat to England, they now travel to Edinburgh with those aspirations hanging by a thread.

Scotland were impressive for 60-65 minutes in Round 1. The hope was that Edinburgh’s all-conquering front five would win the heavy lifting contest to allow the game to be orchestrated by Scotland’s French-based half-backs who in turn, with quick and cunning ball, would spring the Glasgow centre pairing of Huw Jones and Sam Johnson and tries would soon follow.

Greig Laidlaw and Finn Russell ran the show with an outstanding display of tactical dominance. Their ability to read the game shone through and they continued time and time to kick over the advancing Italian defence and give their forwards and backs a platform to attack. And attack they did. Winger Blair Kinghorn has his best game in the Blue shirt and Scotland never looked back racing away to total dominance. 

And then they hit a wall. Sure - an unnecessary yellow card didn’t help but Scotland fell asleep and allowed Italy to come back at them with a series of missed tackles and sloppy errors. Coach Gregor Townsend must have been disappointed with how the performance went flat after Kinghorn’s rapid-fire double, especially given his desire for them to become the fastest in world rugby.

With all the hard games to come they cannot do that again and Townsend will be hoping not to see any repeat against the Irish.

Scotland will have seen the way England bullied and outmuscled Ireland and must be confident they can deliver a second home win against a wounded opponent. Gregor Townsend has pressed the case for Scotland to take on Ireland in the physicality stakes this Saturday after presenting the compelling evidence for a full-blooded approach.

The Scots will be looking to dish out a fresh serving of pain to Joe Schmidt's men at Murrayfield this weekend after the 2018 Grand Slam winners were swiped aside by England in their Guinness Six Nations opener.

Gregor Townsend has made four changes to the Scotland team ahead of their clash with Ireland in Murrayfield.

Blair Kinghorn, hat-trick hero against Italy last weekend, is relegated to the bench with the returning Sean Maitland slotting in for the 22-year old on the wing. 

Simon Berghan and Josh Strauss replace injured duo WP Nel and Sam Skinner while Jonny Gray and Sean Maitland are restored to the starting line-up, with Ben Toolis and hat-trick history-maker 22 years old Blair Kinghorn named among the replacements. 

Blair Kinghorn, hat-trick hero against Italy last weekend, is surprisingly relegated to the bench but the return of the experienced Maitland is the right call in such a close encounter. 

Berghan packs down in the front-row alongside Edinburgh team-mates Allan Dell and Stuart McInally, while Strauss starts at No.8. Gray partners Grant Gilchrist in the second-row while Maitland’s return sees a familiar look to the back-three as he lines up alongside fellow British & Irish Lions Stuart Hogg and Tommy Seymour. The trio will make their 18th Scotland test start together on Saturday.

There are four changes on the bench, with uncapped Glasgow Warriors prop D’arcy Rae filling the spot left by Berghan’s inclusion in the starting XV while his experienced Scotstoun colleagues Fraser Brown and Pete Horne are included in a match-day squad for the first time this campaign. Another Warrior, Rob Harley, is drafted in from the wider squad and joins the match day 23.

For Ireland, after such an impressive 18 months – the way they capitulated against English forward power will be a deep concern. Make no mistake Ireland were hammered in Dublin. Out thought, out muscled and the match video will make painful watching for their coaches.

This brutal reality check where even Ireland boss Schmidt admitted his side was battered in every area, means that only a renewed grit will set Rory Best's team back on track - especially with this autumn's World Cup hurtling into view.

Quite simply, Ireland’s kicking game let them down and several players were exposed as perhaps not being as good as we all thought. First up, the selection of Robbie Henshaw at Full Back was a disaster. England peppered him with high balls and he never look solid or assured aa any point in the match. 

Jacob Stockdale made a dreadful error to concede a try. Ireland’s much vaunted midfield of Bundee Aki and Garry Ringrose simply couldn’t contain Manu Tuliagi or the runs infield from Jack Nowell and Jonny May. Aki in particular had an appalling game. Unable to break the gain line and totally dominated.

Jonny Sexton never got started and partly because Conor Murray had probably his worst game in a Green shirt. His box kicking didn’t work, and his passing got so erratic it was more like a Skud missile than his normal rhythmic passing style.

In the forwards, it was little better. The Irish front five never had the upper hand and the back row spent the whole game in defence. Stander and Van Der Flier never got forward momentum despite huge tackle counts.

Joe Schmidt’s preparation for Murrayfield took a further blow with news that Henshaw, Stander, Ringrose and Dublin tower Devin Toner all picked up injuries and will miss the game in Edinburgh. 

Rob Kearney and Sean O'Brien are among five personnel switches for Ireland as Joe Schmidt has changed a third of his team for Saturday's Guinness Six Nations clash against Scotland.

As expected, Leinster full-back Kearney returns to the 15 jersey, with Robbie Henshaw, who has suffered a dead leg, ruled out. Chris Farrell replaces the injured Garry Ringrose at outside centre.

The injury to Henshaw means the Ireland head coach did not have to make a decision on the Leinster man's continued inclusion at full-back following last week's defeat to England.

Munster's Farrell, man of the match in his last Six Nations outing against Wales in 2018, is the latest man to partner Aki in midfield.

Keith Earls has won his fitness battle and resumes on the wing along with Jacob Stockdale, while Johnny Sexton and Conor Murray continue at half-back.
Schmidt has made three changes in the pack. Quinn Roux comes into the second row to partner James Ryan in place of the injured Devin Toner, while Sean O'Brien and Jack Conan are introduced into the back row, with Conan taking the injured CJ Stander's spot at the base of the pack.

The front row of Cian Healy, Rory Best and Tadhg Furlong is unchanged, while Roux has fended off competition from Ultan Dillane for the second row spot vacated by Toner, who misses out with an ankle injury. His Connacht team-mate is named among the replacements.

Josh van der Flier drops to the replacements bench to accommodate the returning O'Brien, who got 15 minutes off the bench last weekend.

This is a hard game to call. Ireland’s record at Murrayfield is poor with 2 defeats from their last 3 visits. Scotland have won their past seven Six Nations matches at Murrayfield, including an impressive victory over Ireland two years ago.
They also ran a monstrous South Africa close in Edinburgh last November and the world-leading All Blacks even closer a year before.

Gregor Townsend's men brushed Italy aside with little bother. Beating this Ireland team, the second-best in the world, even after their England humiliation, will be significantly harder and a real test of the real strength and character of this Scottish squad with a lengthy injury list.

Your head says Ireland never have two poor games but like England last year, I  do see a fragility about the men in green. The Scottish Front 3 will have a tough day so their fans will be hoping that Brown is fully fit as well. The guys on the bench look good, I think we all knew Maitland would be back for Kinghorn. That's about the best team Scotland have at the moment. It will be tough day at the office, if they can keep mobility and chaos alive for 80 mins, I think they will do it and again cause an upset.

The modern game is so dependent upon half back control and Scotland had it and Ireland didn’t in their last game. Big call but I am going for a shock home victory.

Scotland 21 Ireland 20



ITALY V WALES

The second game in Rome sees Italy face the visiting welsh dragon. Much was expected of this Welsh team in this year’s tournament and if Wales were a cat, they used up 7 of their 9 lives in the rain shocked Stadt De France last week.

Wales were simply awful in the 1st stanza. An early score from the excellent Picamoles and Wales were on the back foot. Add to that a bid defensive blunder for France’s 2nd try and far too many handling errors and Wales were thumped by French bulk and far greater game awareness.

Again – the dominant factor in that horror half was the failure at half back. Tomos Williams looked nervous and spilled the ball far too easily whilst Anscombe had an absolute mare. He looked incisive and lacked vision in attack and his poor defensive tackling let in Picamoles for France’s 1dst try and made George North worried enough to come off his wing leaving Huget with a clear opportunity for the 2nd.

Hairdryer treatment from Gatland and Sean Edwards and a different Wales played the 2nd half. France’s big pack tired giving Wales the opportunity to use speed and guile and start to control the 2nd stanza. Add to that the luck of Huget’s brain fart near his line and the wild pass giving North a clear interception and Wales got out of jail. 

The Welsh line out was a shambles. Ken Owens having a rare poor game whilst Adam Beard didn’t impress. Wales looked far better with the more experienced Cory Hill in the engine room. The front row held up very well against the giant French pack. Tomos Francis is improving his technique in every game and the back row gave defensive stability with Tipuric again outstanding whilst the reliable Navidi carried well and Moriarty played an entire 80 minutes despite little recent game time.

In the backs, Josh Adams showed real class in attack. George North does what he does – weak in defence but ruthless in attack. The Centre never had the ball and Hadleigh Parkes is really struggling right now.

Liam Williams was solid and reliable at Full Back and if he made the pass – then maybe Wales could have turned this game around sooner. As it was, he went for the line, lost the ball and a critical 7 points when Wales were on the rack. 

Look beyond the score line and you see very clever tactical substitutions from Gatland. Bringing on Biggar and Gareth Davies when the score got to 16-14 was a masterstroke and all his substitutions added value and made key contributions.

It was an amazing turnaround and Gatland’s comments that Wales had forgotten how to lose were spot on. Can they now build on it in Rome?

Warren Gatland have made 10 personnel changes from the side that beat France in Paris as he seeks to give all of his 31 man training squad. Jonathan Davies will captain Wales for the first time on Saturday as he leads his country against Italy in Rome.

Davies will win his 70th cap at Stadio Olimpico and becomes Wales’ 137th captain.

He will line up in midfield alongside Owen Watkin with Dan Biggar and Aled Davies named at fly-half and scrum-half respectively.

Liam Williams and Josh Adams, who both started in Paris last week, are joined by Jonah Holmes in the back-three with the latter making his first Guinness Six Nations appearance.

In the pack Nicky Smith, Elliot Dee and Samson Lee form a new look front-row with Jake Ball coming into the second-row alongside Adam Beard, with Alun Wyn Jones on the bench.

In the back-row Josh Navidi moves to No. 8, Aaron Wainwright starts at blindside flanker and Thomas Young makes his first Six Nations appearance on the openside.

Thomas Young is a welcome selection and has the chance to put down a marker.

The 26-year-old has shown at club level he has the ability to take his game to extraordinary heights — ask European champions Leinster, who saw Young snaffle five turnovers in a Champions Cup clash in Dublin earlier this season. Young’s many admirers are in no doubt that he has the quality to perform in Test rugby at the same intensity..

This is his chance to prove his worth as a viable option for the World Cup in Japan. It goes without saying that he needs to take it.
Ryan Elias, Wyn Jones and Dillon Lewis are the front-row replacements on the bench with Alun Wyn Jones and Ross Moriarty completing the forward contingent. Gareth Davies, Gareth Anscombe and Hallam Amos provide Wales’ backline cover.

Italy will celebrate the 20th anniversary of their admission to the Six Nations next year but despite having made strides over the past two decades, they remain the competition’s whipping boys. They head into Saturday’s Rome Test on the back of 18 straight defeats in the tournament since their last win against the Scots in 2015. 

Italy, it should be remembered, have limited resources to begin with and they have started this championship without Matteo Minozzi, their terrific full-back, Mattia Bellini, their dangerous wing, Marcello Violi, their number one scrum-half, and Jake Polledri, the openside who did such damage to Scotland last year

Conor O’Shea’s Italy made a decent fist of it in the last 20 minutes in Edinburgh but that doesn’t forgive the poor 60 minutes which preceded it. Italy were struggling from early on against Scotland and their defensive patterns made it far too easy for Finn Russell to control the match. 

Conor O’Shea has made two changes for Italy as Edoardo Padovani comes into the backline and Nicola Quaglio into the front row for their Guinness Six Nations clash with Wales on Saturday.

Padovani, who scored a try off the bench in the second half against Scotland, comes onto the right wing while Michele Campagnaro shifts back inside to his preferred position in the centres.

That means that Tommaso Castello drops out of the matchday 23 while up front Andrea Lovotti has the flu and is replaced at loosehead prop by Quaglio.
Quaglio joins Simone Ferrari and Leonardo Ghiraldini in the front row while Dean Budd and David Sisi remain in the second row.

Sergio Parisse captains again from No.8 with Abraham Steyn and Sebastian Negri either side. Padovani, who scored a try off the bench in the second half against Scotland, comes onto the right wing while Michele Campagnaro shifts back inside to his preferred position in the centres.

That means that Tommaso Castello drops out of the matchday 23 while up front Andrea Lovotti has the flu and is replaced at loosehead prop by Quaglio. Quaglio joins Simone Ferrari and Leonardo Ghiraldini in the front row while Dean Budd and David Sisi remain in the second row.

Sergio Parisse captain’s the Azzurri again from No.8 with Abraham Steyn and Sebastian Negri either side. Guglielmo Palazzani – also a try-scorer last weekend in Edinburgh – remains at No.9 with Tito Tebaldi’s back still posing a problem.

Tommaso Allan remains at No.10 with Campagnaro and Luca Morisi in midfield and Padovani joining Jayden Hayward and Angelo Esposito in the back three.
Elsewhere, Edoardo Gori comes onto the bench as scrum-half cover while Marco Barbini is another new replacement for the front row.

A risky strategy for Gatland making so many changes but Wales have belief and that record 11th consecutive win is within their grasp.  The law of averages suggests Italy are going to win again in the Six Nations at some point. They are now up to 18 defeats in a row, a record for the tournament.

The likelihood is the sequence will stop when an under-strength side rolls into Rome and isn’t quite at it. Having said that, Wales do need to be careful.
There is still significant international winning experience behind the scrum, where Biggar, Jonathan Davies and Liam Williams will look to guide those around them, and while the back row looks light on caps, there is quality in the shape of the ball-pilfering Young and Josh Navidi and the physical Aaron Wainwright.

It’s hard to see Italy winning this match even against a much-changed Welsh team. Wales by two scores and a comfortable win.

Italy 13 Wales 24


ENGLAND v FRANCE


The weekend’s final game sees England take on Le Losers France on Sunday afternoon at Twickenham. This will be a battle of power and intensity with two big strong packs facing off in Le Crunch.

England’s win in Dublin was a surprise but the nature of their total dominance was a shock. They were awesome. The return of the Vunipola brothers gave them physical dominance over Ireland whilst the attacking angles and tactics from Owen Farrell gave them the opportunity to create space for Manu Tuigali to dominate and crush the Irish mid field.

This was the best all round England performance for at least 5 years. On Saturday, England unloaded a physicality on Ireland that Ireland couldn't stand up to. The collisions were won by the visitors, the dominant tackle count in England's favour by a whopping 48-8.

England banished the memory of their 5th place last season and clearly established them as Six Nations (and World Cup) favourites but they still have some improvement to make. They lost 2 line outs on their throw in Dublin and still conceded 8 penalties – double Ireland’s total.  England must work on reducing their indiscipline which was such a problem last season.

John Mitchell has been an outstanding addition to the England coaching set up and the speed of their defence gave Ireland no room to attack. A week spent practicing dealing with high balls was extremely effective with Daly, May and Nowell all able to defuse any high balls and simply run it back at Ireland at every opportunity.

May and Nowell are probably the best wing combination in the world right now and their angled running caused no end of headaches for the Irish. Lets’ not forget this game was at Fortress Aviva – its’ hard to think of a time when Ireland were so completely outclassed. 

Sinkler, George and Mako Vunipola were the dominant front row and the English back row showed real promise. 

Sale Sharks flanker Curry made 23 tackles in the 32-20 win over Ireland in Dublin and was one of the first three England defenders to the breakdown on 16 occasions, with a yellow card for a late hit on Keith Earls after 13 mins the only negative statistic. Curry now has six caps – four against South Africa – and goes into the clash with France at Twickenham on Sunday as a key member of an England team that faces the biggest forward challenge in the history of the sport.

Despite that yellow card, England didn’t concede a try during the entire ten minute absence – a clear sign of a dominant defence.

Henry Slade is developing nicely into a total footballer and made a great combination with the marauding Tuilagi. 

England coach Eddie Jones has sprung a surprise by selecting Chris Ashton in place of Jack Nowell for Sunday's Guinness Six Nations clash with France at Twickenham.

Nowell was extremely impressive in the 32-20 victory over Ireland in Dublin but has lost his spot on the right wing to Ashton, the Top 14 record try-scorer who makes his first Championship start since 2013.

Jones has made one further change to the starting XV that beat Ireland last weekend with Courtney Lawes selected in the second row following the injury to Maro Itoje in Dublin.

Joe Launchbury is added to the bench as 2nd Row cover.

Apart from the presence of Nowell and Launchbury, there are two more changes to the bench in the shape of props Dan Cole and Ben Moon who have displaced Harry Williams and Ellis Genge.

Neither flanker Brad Shields nor wing Joe Cokanasiga have made the matchday 23 despite recovering from respective side and knee injuries.

For France, what can you say? A first half of flair and power and a 2nd half of nightmares. Les Bleus produced a blistering first half in Paris, racing into a 16-0 lead, only to see Warren Gatland’s side turn things around in the biggest comeback in the Championship’s long history.

This has become something of a worrying trend for Les Bleus, who have now lost five times from winning positions at half-time since the start of 2018.
While the Welsh defeat was easily the biggest half-time lead that had been surrendered, there will be concern at the way France allowed Gatland’s men to get back into the game so quickly in the second half will inevitably leave real mental scars for a long time. 

That leaves Jacques Brunel with some big decisions to make ahead of a clash with England, who looked so impressive in securing a bonus-point win over Ireland in Dublin.

There were some real encouragements to build on. Parra was outstanding in the 1st half last week and in Camille Lopez – France finally have A No. 10 to build attacks from. Fofana and Ntamack were a lively combination with Fickou a solid option off the bench and both wings showed good attacking prowess. 

In the pack, the giant weight advantage never showed at all in the set piece and will ebb a disappointment. Uini Atonio is simply just a big lump and France have to bring in more specialised scrummager’s. Both second rows were solid winning line outs on Welsh throws and Arthur Iturria, Picamoles and Wenceslas Lauret were an effective back row unit against probably the best back row in the Six Nations.

One reason for increased optimism for Les Blues was the display of Arthur Iturria, the standout player arguably either side.

Although he is originally from the Basque country, Iturria came through the ranks at Clermont as a dynamic second row, earning his France debut last year. Since then he has made the switch to the back row, and he impressed in that position in the Autumn internationals. 

Against Wales Iturria set up a try for Yoann Huget with an incredibly skilful slip pass; made 12 tackles out of 12 and was also France’s go-to man at the lineout where he claimed six of the ten French throws. Add in the three offloads and 51 metres made with ball in hand, and the 24-year-old looks to have cemented his place with France long-term.

France have made six changes to the side which lost 24-19 home to Wales for Sunday’s Guinness Six Nations match with England at Twickenham.

Toulon centre Mathieu Bastareaud has been recalled to the France side for Sunday's Guinness Six Nations clash with England at Twickenham.

The experienced defensive lynchpin was left out of the side that suffered a 24-19 defeat to Wales in Paris last Friday, despite Les Bleus leading 16-0 at the interval.

Also coming into the backline are Geoffrey Doumayrou, who will be in the centre alongside Bastareaud, while Gael Fickou is on the wing, with Yoann Huget moving to full-back.

Romain Ntamack is on the bench, as are his Toulouse clubmates Antoine Dupont and Thomas Ramos. Ramos is in line for his international debut.

There have also been three changes in the pack there will be first test starts for Demba Bamba and Felix Lambey. Bamba replaces the injured Uini Atonio in the front row, while Lambey is preferred to South African-born lock Paul Willemse, who is on the bench.

Yacouba Camara is named in the backrow instead of Wenceslas Lauret.

Pierre Bourgarit is chosen as the replacement hooker instead of Julien Marchand, while uncapped Toulouse tighthead Dorian Aldegheri is also on the bench.

England have won nine of the last 12 Six Nations games against France with the Les Bleus only having managed one win at Twickenham in the Six Nations era back in 2005.

England will come home to HQ with their tails up and will face a stiff challenge against the French in the 1st half. The psychological damage from last week’s defeat in Paris will be very hard for France to recover from in 8 days and I also fear for their fitness. 

The recall of Bastareaud is a message France want to take England in physicality. Given the size of the task at hand – this side looks like a damage limitation exercise than a serious attempt to build for the future. The centre changes are not progression and to dispense with Ntamack and Fofana after their lively performance last week is disappointing.

England will dominate the second half and despite a brutal battle for 60 minutes, they will triumph by a comfortable margin.

England 32 France 20





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