As we enter the final round of the 2017 Six Nations, England have deservedly been crowned again as Champions. The question is can they do a rare thing and achieve back to back Grand Slams? A victory in Dublin would also see England set a tier-one record of 19 consecutive wins and Jones believes the pressure on the weekend's performance is ideal preparation for the 2019 global tournament in Japan. If they do win, they will have to do it the hard way facing a wounded Ireland side on the day after the St. Paddy’s day celebrations.
No team has won back-to-back Grand Slams in the Six Nations Era. In the old Five Nations, it was a feat achieved by England teams a record three times before in 1913 & 1914; 1923 & 1924; 1991 & 1992. Wales have achieved it once in 1908 & 1909 and France were the most recent achievers in 1997 & repeated in 1998 when they put fifty-one points on the board in their away games against Scotland (51-16 at Murrayfield) and Wales (51-0 at Wembley).
England finally came to life at home in the Calcutta Cup absolutely smashing the hopes of John Barclay’s Scottish heroes and once again sent them homewards to think again. England were awesome. Their forward power and creative back play totally unsettled Scotland and with 20 minutes to go – you feared a cricket score. After disappointing displays in their earlier matches, you always knew that England would eventually get it right and someone was going to get a stuffing. Unfortunately injury hit Scotland were the victims put to the sword and all hail to Eddie Jones and his excellent side – deserved champions.
One of the clearest indicators in this year’s championship is just how difficult it is to win away. Outside of Rome’s Stadio Olympico, there has been only one other away win this tournament – England’s stolen victory in Cardiff – and the home team factor will no doubt also come into to play in this weekend’s fixtures.
There are three final tasty challenges – Wales travel to take on France in Paris; England and Ireland in Dublin, whilst with a Scottish injury list growing, Conor O’Shea might just feel his Italian side can get something away at Murrayfield. It’s been a good competition and some unexpected results mean your correspondent is facing a less than stellar 75% success rate with 9 out of 12 results predicted correct. My final chance to get that up to its normal standards will require 3 correct predictions for this weekend. Let’s assess the runners and riders for the final round:
SCOTLAND v ITALY
First up is the lunchtime fixture at Murrayfield where Italy travel to take on Scotland with an early 12:30 kick off.
Vern Cotter will want to bow out on a high after the sobering defeat again at Twickenham. He will be very concerned about making sure his injury ravaged squad can finish on a high and a possible 3rd in the final championship table. Scotland’s capitulation at Twickenham was not helped by the mounting injury toll during the match. They ended up with a scrum-half on the wing and, despite two tries from Huw Jones, looked utterly deflated. Vern Cotter, their coach, compared the experience to the day his Clermont Auvergne side lost 46-6 to Saracens on the same ground but there is also increasing evidence to suggest the Six Nations is becoming ever harder work for away teams.
Fraser Brown's rush of blood to the head against England has cost the Scotland hooker his starting slot against Italy on Saturday. Cotter has clearly lost patience with the Hooker who added to his stress level this week with his citing for the tip tackle on Elliot Daly. Brown was spared further punishment on Tuesday when an independent disciplinary panel ruled his challenge did not merit a red card.
Head coach Vern Cotter - who is taking charge of the Dark Blues for the final time - has recalled Edinburgh hooker Ross Ford to start against the Azzurri at Murrayfield. Ford will make his first start of the championship and his 107th international cap. The Edinburgh forward will need just two more caps after this weekend to equal Chris Paterson's Test record for a Scottish player.
Ford's inclusion is the only change to the starting XV ripped apart by the English last weekend as they went on to claim a record-equalling 61-21 triumph. Although their title hopes were snuffed out by that humiliating defeat, Scotland can still finish as runners up for the first time since the tournament was expanded to six teams in 2000.
Cotter will be relieved to see the likes of Stuart Hogg, Tommy Seymour and Ryan Wilson declare themselves fit after suffering head knocks last weekend. Finn Russell, Huw Jones and Richie Gray have also shaken off knocks to take on the struggling Italians, who have lost all four of their games to date.
The only other change to the match-day squad sees Gloucester centre Matt Scott return to the bench to replace Mark Bennett, who lasted just two minutes as a first-half replacement against England before suffering leg and arm injuries. John Barclay will once again wear the Captain’s arm band as the Scarlets flanker wins his 60th international cap.
For Italy, there were encouraging individual performances in the defeat to France and the Azzurri will take heart from their forward play in the loose as hard scrummaging France made mincemeat of the Italy pack in the set pieces. A decent performance is probably the best they can hope for as with Georgia again looking certain to win European Rugby’s tier two competition – Coach Conor O’Shea will be looking over his shoulder as the calls for promotion and relegation grow ever louder. I watched highlights of Georgia demolishing a Russia side in front of 55,000 in Tbilisi. They looked powerful with a loud and passionate home support. I can’t say any of the home nations would relish a trip there in a Six Nations competition so I think they will all be looking for O’Shea’s team to at least make a good stand and push Scotland close.
O’Shea has made four changes to his starting XV for Saturday's final Six Nations fixture against Scotland at Murrayfield. Italy were 22-19 winners on their last visit at Murrayfield on final day of the 2015 Six Nations but have lost all 11 championship games since then.
Scottish-born lock George Biagi, who has had game time as a replacement off the bench in the defeats by Ireland, England and France, has been selected in the second row in place of club team-mate Andries van Schalkwyk.
Tommaso Benvenuti replaces the injured Michele Campagnaro at outside centre and will once again team up with the versatile Luke McLean. Campagnaro is a big loss given he has looked the only penetrating runner in a shabby looking Italian threequarter line which lacks oomph and power.
Zebre's Maxime Mbanda is also recalled in the starting pack, in place of Glasgow flanker Simone Favaro, while Ornel Gega takes over from Leonardo Ghiraldini at hooker after recovering from a neck problem. Ghiraldini drops to the bench.
Carlo Canna and Eduorado Gori continue at half backs and the Azzurri will be looking for a more solid scrum against the Scottish front row which held its own against both Wales and England.
In what looks like an increasingly desperate attempt to gain something from an awful campaign, O’Shea opts for a six-two split of forwards to backs on his bench as Italy look to end their Six Nations campaign in a positive manner. Flanker Federico Ruzza will be hoping for a first senior cap from the bench. On the bench, in addition to Ruzza, Francesco Minto returns as part of a 6-2 split, while scrum-half Marcello Violi will look to make his first appearance of the Championship.
Scotland have shown strong form at home but their lengthy injury list may cause a few problems. Italy, by contrast, have looked stronger away from home – so it is an intriguing mix. Italy didn’t look comfortable at all in the set pieces against France and they must do better against Scotland. The change at hooker, whilst less experienced, should favour them as the Albanian-born Treviso hooker Gega is a strong scrummager and better in the loose.
The packs look pretty even so the game will be won in the backs. Finn Russell is a real Jekyll and Hyde performer – great at times and awful at others. His display against England was the latter and he certainly didn’t help his side stabilise with erratic kicking and passing. This lack of vision as a playmaker does sometimes let him down in co-ordinating attacks.
In the centres, Huw Jones is another player who wouldn’t have been on many lips as pa potential British Lion at the start of the tournament but he has run strongly and scored two excellent tries against England. Given reasonable possession, Scotland have a clear edge in the threequarters and should have enough quality to dominate the Azzurri.
Scotland win to push hard for 2nd in the table and their best Six Nations performance for many years.
Scotland 23 Italy 16
FRANCE v WALES
There are times when I wonder why I write this Blog. After slating Rob Howley and his selection for the match against Ireland, Wales went on to do their best performance for 12 months with a fantastic defensive display against Ireland. The great Welsh prop Graham Price has harshly christened Wales as the New France due to the lack of consistency in Welsh performances over the past year.It’s certainly been clear that we are not sure which Wales will turn up. The Welsh performances this season against Australia, Japan, Italy and Scotland have been absolutely dire whilst the games against South Africa, England and Ireland show a very different team.
And it’s not just the overall team – individuals have also been very inconsistent. George North was just awful against Scotland but was sublime against Ireland with strong running and two crucial tries. For me, the one area that decided the result as much as any, was the line breaks. The number of breaks each team had was pretty similar but it was Wales’ ability to convert those line breaks into points that told in the end.
Take that try George North got in the first half: to make that line break and score the try in the same phase was no accident. So much had to fall into place, and it did. On Friday night Ireland made plenty of line breaks but Wales’ scramble defence and Ireland’s inability to make them pay, in contrast to what Wales could do at the other end; was ultimately the difference between the two teams.
Several Welsh players had very strong games against Ireland with Rhys Webb, Sam Warburton, Justin Tipuric, and Ken Owens – all putting themselves into the reckoning for Lions places whilst Leigh Halfpenny and Dan Biggar certainly have some work to do with poor games and big inconsistencies. Halfpenny was awful under the high ball and really needs to be either dropped or moved to the wing. Biggar too again looks unlikely to make the plane with the Lions after another poor game with both boot and passing.
Given Wales strong showing against the men in green, it isn’t surprising that once again Wales will field an unchanged team for their RBS 6 Nations finale in Paris.
Interim head coach Rob Howley has predictably retained the same match day squad which means Ross Moriarty deservedly retains the No.8 Jersey and Jake Ball at No. 4 and that Bath forwards Luke Charteris and Taulupe Faletau remain among the replacements as Wales target a sixth successive victory over Les Bleus, while hooker Ken Owens will win his 50th cap. Owens has been one of the form players of the championship and has put himself in the pole position to gain the British Lions No.2 jersey with strong showings in every match. He reaches his half-century, and will lead Wales out at the Stadt de France having made his debut back in 2011 at the Rugby World Cup.
If Wales win - and England beat Ireland in Dublin on Saturday; - then Howley's men will amazingly secure a top-four world ranking place ahead of the 2019 World Cup pool draw in May. With France lying third in the table they will look to beat their fourth-placed opponents, with both teams looking for their third win of the competition.
For France, the vigour and renewed energy shown by Guy Noves selections will mean nothing if they cannot defeat Wales for the first time since 2011’s comfortable victory by 28-9 when two tries from Second row Lionel Nallet and one from winger Vincent Clerc were too much for Matthew Rees’ team when another Welsh forward Ryan Jones also won his 50th cap.
Guy Noves has made just one change to his winning line up with Clermont Auvergne lock Sebastien Vahaamahina recalled to the starting line-up for their final Six Nations game.
The second row had missed the victory over Italy in Rome through injury, with Julien Le Devedec taking his place in the starting line-up. But he has come through fitness tests and has been in full training this week and returns to the team alongside Yoann Maestri, with Le Devedec dropping to the bench as Guy Noves shows faith in the rest of the side which won in Italy.
That means that Fabien Sanconnie, who made his debut last time out, retains his spot in the back row alongside Kevin Gourdon and Louis Picamoles. France are still concerned over the fitness of Gael Fickou, who has picked up a knock on his leg, with Henry Chavancy waiting in the wings if he doesn't make it.
Elsewhere Noves has stuck to the same back three that played in Rome as Brice Dulin and Virimi Vakatawa keep their places in the side. The only other change to the matchday squad sees Camille Chat replace the injured Christopher Tolofua as hooker cover on the bench.
Wales will need another dominating defensive performance and they will need Tipuric and Warburton to shut down Picamoles and Gourdon in the same way they blunted the Irish back row. Don’t expect too many tries in what should be a tight encounter. Wales, have conceded only five tries in their four matches, fewer than anyone else. France have scored a mere six , the joint fewest with Italy and four of those came during last week's bonus point win in Rome. In that case, the penalty count may become crucial. France have been much more disciplined this season but are still guilty of guilty of giving away 47 penalties in their four matches to only 39 for Wales.
I do fear the Welsh pack may struggle in the set piece against Europe’s best scrummagers and Webb v Serin is the match up of the two best scrum halves in the championship will also be critical. Whomever can get their back lines attacking at pace will win the match. George North has a great try scoring record against France and will need to be at his best again as Nakataci and Vakatawa are both penetrating runners who can cause all sorts of damage to defensive lines if they run the angles.
France have the edge at centre where Scott Williams has not really worked well for Wales. I don’t see Wales winning again and Les Bleus will end their season on a high note with a narrow victory.
France 20 Wales 16
IRELAND v ENGLAND
Ireland will be bitterly disappointed with their inability to come away from Cardiff without any points but also to once again to fail to penetrate a “Rourke’s’ drift” defence as in their earlier game against Scotland. In both of the two losses there have been very small margins between victory and defeat. It’s an easy say, and it’s not to deny whatever shortcomings have got in the way, but it could easily have been Ireland going for a Grand Slam this weekend.There are some very encouraging signs for the Irish. There’s a new centre partnership there with Robbie Henshaw and Garry Ringrose, they're improving with every game and Irish fans have to be patient.
I’ve heard the point made about the game on Friday about just how physical an encounter it was - and it was. You were almost flinging with every bone crunching tackle. However much you highlight the input of Wales’ big players North, Warburton and Justin Tipuric; if you look at the stats, the lightest and smallest player on the field was Keith Earls, and nobody beat more defenders in the 80 minutes and nobody made more metres than he did.
Elsewhere Ireland didn’t look so convincing. My preview pointed out the back row battle as fundamental and despite CJ Stander’s strong efforts, the Welsh back row definitely had the better of Ireland and not only in the back row. The Welsh front five had strong games against Ireland and several of the Irish established players looked like they were struggling with the intensity. Jamie Heaslip in particular looks past his prime whilst Sean O’Brien had a very low key game by his standards.
Another player who I fear we may never see again in the green jersey is Tommy Bowe. He has been a very popular player in both Ireland and Wales due to his playing spells at both Ulster and the Ospreys. The initial analysis seems to indicate he has a suspected fracture of his left leg. One can wish him a speedy recovery but with his injury history and age – I would not be surprised if he doesn’t return again at this level and I fear an impending retirement announcement.
Ireland have lost two key players for the tie against England as Conor Murray and Rob Kearney will both miss Ireland’s showdown with England on Saturday through injury, while Devin Toner has been dropped as coach Joe Schmidt made three changes to the team beaten by Wales.
Murray suffered a stinger injury to the shoulder in the defeat against Wales last Friday and was on course to start during the week but this morning, the No 9 failed a fitness test.
Connacht scrum-half Kieran Marmion, who replaced Murray last week, will win his 13th cap, while Leinster's Luke McGrath is on the bench.
Full-back Kearney has suffered a knee injury, which will require surgery, paving the way for the return of Jared Payne, who last featured for Ireland against Australia in November. New Zealand born Payne has also recently recovered from injury and has played three games for Ulster in the last few weeks.
Second-row Toner, an erstwhile mainstay in Schmidt’s side, has been replaced by Iain Henderson. The Ulster lock is preferred for his dynamism around the field, deemed necessary to counter the impact of England’s mobile second row of Joe Launchbury and Courtney Lawes.
Keith Earls, who was rested during the week due to a groin issue, has been passed fit and Simon Zebo joins him on the wing.
Jonathan Sexton, who underwent and passed HIA protocols after the Cardiff defeat, is named at out-half with Robbie Henshaw and Garry Ringrose outside him in the centre.
The front row of Jack McGrath, captain Rory Best and Tadhg Furlong is retained, Henderson joins Donnacha Ryan behind them, while the back row combination of CJ Stander, Sean O’Brien and Jamie Heaslip stays the same.
Munster back Andrew Conway could make his Ireland debut after being named on the bench.
It is the childhood dream of every Irish player North, South, East & West to beat England and this weekend will be every extra incentive needed. All the pressure is on England and their record and the Irish will love it pulling the wheels of the worst drone tune in sport.
For England, their performance against Scotland was absolutely sublime – about as good as it gets. This team is the first Northern Hemisphere side to reach those heights since England’s epic 2003 World Cup win and the wealth of the RFU and the playing strength at their disposal must now make England the World Cup favourites. For Eddie Jones, winning another Six Nations title is a step towards that ultimate prize and nothing less than a victory in Dublin will satisfy him.
This will be England’s fourth foray to the Irish capital in pursuit of securing a Grand Slam in the Six Nations era and the fact that they have lost two of the previous three leaves the undefeated champions with a score to settle as well as a world record to break.
It’s not surprising to therefore see Eddie Jones change his starting XV to field his strongest available side with only long term injury absentees Chris Robshaw and George Kruis missing.
Jones has recalled both Billy Vunipola and Anthony Watson to start England's attempt at securing back-to-back Grand Slams. Vunipola replaces Nathan Hughes at number eight and Watson is recalled at the expense of Jack Nowell on the right wing in a straight swap between starting XV and bench. Both players made try-scoring returns last weekend in their first appearances of the championship, the Saracens back row driving over from close range in the third quarter and the latter picking a superb line to finish a thrilling team move.
Elliot Daly continues in the number 11 jersey after passing the return to play protocols for suspected concussion sustained in the 61-21 demolition of Scotland last Saturday.
On the bench, Tom Wood will win his 50th cap if he steps off the bench at the Aviva Stadium.
It’s a powerful looking England line up and Ireland really will need to be right on their A game if they are going to upset the applecart and deny the English. Ireland will want to die on the pitch rather than lose to England but the men in white have a very good record at the Aviva Stadium with both teams winning two encounters out of the matches played since the stadium redevelopment. I feel England have the momentum and the edge. If this was a championship decider then I would go with my original thoughts that Ireland would spoil England’s party but now with the championship in the bag, England will not want to take the foot off the throat and Eddie Jones will want to continue his mind games with the all Blacks by breaking their consecutive win record.
The English back division have the edge but perhaps one of the more intriguing battles with Lions places up for grabs will be the outside half battle. Jonny Sexton again had injury concerns after the game in Cardiff but is really a crucial figure in Ireland’s game plan. He gets Ireland’s back line moving directing the play and he will certainly want to marshal and constrain his opposite number George Ford.
In the forwards, England do I feel have the edge in the front five and once again the dominance in the forwards will come down to who controls the breakdown and has the stronger back row performance. This could be the match of the championship but despite the passion and the hostile atmosphere the crowd will add to the event, I don’t see Ireland bouncing back from their loss in Cardiff. England all the way and back to back Grand Slam triumphs!
Ireland 16 England 23
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