Six Nations 2015 Round 4 – Green, White or Red?

Round 3 provided two upsets and one home victory and Rugby Raconteur is at the usual state of 66% accuracy as we head into the two final rounds. There hasn’t been much between Ireland, England, Wales and France so far, and there wasn’t much between France and Scotland in Paris, Scotland and Wales in Edinburgh. Ireland showed that England are some way short of being the finished article,

Team of the round has to go to Italy who defied the odds to win at Murrayfield and silence the highland hoards. Wales had a job to do in Paris and once again confounded the critics with a controlled victory whilst Ireland once again took the wheels off England’s chariot.

Round 4 of the Six Nations and we have just three teams in contention – the green of Ireland, the White of England and the Red of Wales. Who will come out in top this week? In Cheltenham Festival week lets us out the runners and riders for Round 4.

Wales v Ireland 

Game of the round is first up with Wales taking on defending champions Ireland at the millennium Stadium. Ireland are the only remaining unbeaten team and must be rated as red-hot favourites to win again on Saturday. The luck of the Irish is strong in Cardiff and it will be a shock to many people that Wales have only won their home Six nations tie against Ireland on 2 occasions since 1983. That really is a shocking home record for Wales and the green shirts are now ten wins from their last ten games and will seek to be triumphant once again.

Wales were impressive against France with total control of the match. Jamie Roberts was very aggressive with 12 hit ups and the Welsh control of the kicking game both out of hand and off the tee was exemplary. Leigh Halfpenny showed once again that goal kickers win matches. There was also a strong performance from the Welsh forwards with the front row holding up well against the strong French pack.

Wales remain an outside chance of winning the total by a +5 points difference is a long way off the +40 pts from Ireland and plus 25pts from England. Coach Warren Gatland names an unchanged team for Saturday’s critical encounter. Gatland predictably retains the starting line-up that defeated France 20-13 in Paris ten days ago, a result that kept alive hopes of Wales landing a third Six Nations crown in four years.

He will be pleased that Flanker Sam Warburton has been passed fit after he went off after taking a blow to his knee during the French clash. Big Sam will break Ryan Jones' record when he captains Wales for the 34th time on Saturday.

Scott Baldwin retains his place at hooker and Luke Charteris continues at 2nd row. The Welsh line out was solid and dependable in Paris and provided a good attacking platform for Wales to dominate the French up front with quick passing and aggressive work around the gain line. Dan Lydiate again sees of the challenge of Justin Tipuric after an outstanding piece of skill set up Dan Biggar’s try in Paris.

In the backs Liam Williams rightly retains his spot on the wing and Wales only changes are on the bench where Paul James is ruled out with injury and Bradley Davies is dropped. Jake Ball returns for Davies and Scarlets Rob Evans is called up as front row cover.

Ireland are the form team of the present and have continued their dominant autumn performances into the six nations. Their game plan is based around applying pressure and power, winning penalties and relying upon the boot of your lethal goal kicker to accumulate points and win matches.

Conor Murray has been the real form player for the Irish and the big difference in their win over England was the speed of the ball and the time that expert thinker Jonny Sexton has to plan the next Irish attack. In an era of tight defences, speed of play and though remain critical factors that can make the subtle difference between winning and losing.

Ireland may not be pretty to watch but there is no doubt it is proving effective. The statistics prove Ireland have carried the ball less than others, offloaded fewer times, not been as successful with line breaks... yet are still top of the table and the team to bear.

Joe Schmidt has a full complement of his squad to choose from. Jamie Heaslip has beaten the cracked vertebrae in his back inflicted by lock Pascal Pape in the 18-11 victory over France on Valentine's Day. Heaslip is the only change from the team that beat England. Critical playmaker Sexton has beaten the hamstring problem that forced him out of the latter stages of the 19-9 victory over England, with Jared Payne and Sean O'Brien both returning from concussion.

Jordi Murphy is the unlucky player returning to the bench as Joe Schmidt retains the same team that beat France convincing in Dublin in Round 2.

I expect another tight game as the Cementball tactics of Wales meet their match in Ireland.  Neither team will want to lose and it will suit Wales to not be favourites at home.  The critical determinant of success or failure may well be the referee. The withdrawal of Steve Walsh has meant that an Englishman could be the decisive factor. Wayne Barnes has been a controversial figure in Wales v Ireland matches and neither team will be really happy to see him in charge again.

Wales will fear he will allow Ireland to infringe without penalty in the ruck areas whilst Ireland will be cautious of his record of not penalizing foul play.

Wales will feel confident their front row can cause Ireland some problems. Mike Ross in particular has been struggling of late and Wales will feel the scrums could create a good platform for quick ball to get their dangerous back line moving.

Captain O’Connell is evenly matched against the athletic Alun Wyn-Jones in the boiler room and the back rows also look evenly matched assuming Heaslip and O’Brien are truly 100% fit.

At half backs, Murray and Sexton are the dogs nadgers right now but Webb and Biggar have also been in strong form and improving every match so far. This could be the most crucial area where the game will be won or lost and a lot will depend upon Sexton’s fitness.

Jamie Roberts and Jonathan Davies will combine as Welsh Centres for the 38th time on Saturday, and will form a stern test for Ireland’s fledgling midfield duo Payne and Henshaw who have both impressed this tournament.

Back three is again very even and hard to call with both sets strong in the air. Simon Zebo is much improved on the wing for Ireland and George North showed something like his old self against France and will be eager to improve further against Ireland.

I expect Ireland to start at full pace and gain an early lead. Wales will depend on Halfpenny to keep them in the match and if Wales are within 3 points at half time then I fully expect a Welsh victory. Sam Warburton will lead his team for a record 34th time on Saturday and I see Wales throwing the door open for perennial rivals England to leap back into championship contention.

Wales 27 Ireland 23

England v Scotland

So onto the oldest trophy in International rugby – the Calcutta Cup at Twickenham.  This magnificent trophy was first played for in 1879 and this year’s encounter is the 120th meeting between the auld enemies. Scotland will be desperate to restore pride in the Calcutta Cup meeting following three straight defeats to France, Wales and the Azzurri whilst England will be looking to get their momentum back on track after what appears as just a brief hiccup in Dublin.

Make no mistake, England were poor in Dublin and rightly paid the price for a failure to exert their authority over Ireland. What will be worrying for coach Stuart Lancaster was the way England couldn’t match the Irish intensity and the slow ball they had meant it was easy for Ireland to work effective defensive patterns against them.

What will also be worrying is the loss of form from players who looked world class in the earlier encounters. Jonathan Joseph looked the shirt against both Wales and Italy but faded badly and was largely anonymous against Ireland. Also Dave Attwood has not matched the intensity shown against Wales in the subsequent matches. He was poor against Italy and another who faded from view against the green shirts.

Stuart Lancaster has made two changes from the side beaten by Ireland for England RBS 6 Nations game against Scotland at Twickenham. Second row Courtney Lawes and fullback Mike Brown return to the starting line up, in place of George Kruis and Alex Goode, respectively.

The powerful and athletic Lawes replaces George Kruis in the engine room as the red rose reinforce a challenge for the title that was dealt a potentially fatal setback with their chastening 19-9 defeat in Ireland. He has only recently recovered from the ankle surgery that forced him to miss the start of the Championship and has proven his fitness during two matches for Northampton. The 26-year-old will reprise a second row partnership with Dave Attwood last seen during the autumn while George Kruis, drops out of the match day squad.

Fellow lock Geoff Parling also comes into the squad for his first taste of the Six Nations since 2013 as one of the replacements along with Newcastle’s Keiron Brookes who returns to the bench.

Lancaster has continued to ignore Danny care and I am struggling to understand his loyalty to Ben Youngs. Youngs was largely the scapegoat for me against Ireland. His passing and distribution was slow and ponderous and George Ford didn’t have the tactical knowledge and skill to change the game plan when it was clearly not making the expected progress against the Irish defence. There is very little you can usefully do with slow ball, and so England did very little in penetration and attack. It’s partly because they received slow ball that their handling let them down. Incidentally, in Dublin, Ireland handled so securely and were so efficient at the breakdown that the game was, I think, well on into the second half, before England had the put-in at a scrum.

Chris Robshaw was another who had a poor game and it was hard to really pick anyone from England who had a strong game in Dublin.

As for Scotland, they must be devastated to lose at home to Italy after controlling the match for large spells. Peter Horne will undoubtedly be blamed for missing his penalty kick to touch when all Scotland had to do was retain possession to run down the clock. If Horne, who otherwise had a pretty good game, had found touch with that penalty; it would have offered an unexpected escape from a five-metre scrum, and Scotland probably have held on to win. Yet the truth is of course that the Scots should never have found themselves in that position. Instead, they opened the doors to a Parisse inspired comeback and after three matches it is three defeats and coach Vern Cotter is staring into the abyss of another Scottish wooden spoon. A match, which should have been won fairly comfortably, was lost because of their own mistakes.

Scotland is a team that has forgotten how to win matches. The mix of experience and youth put together by Cotter is not yet melding into a successful combination. To add insult to injury, they now face the daunting task of facing a wounded England at Twickenham.  The trip to Twickenham to face an England side eager to get their show back on the road after their defeat in Dublin looks at least as daunting as it has done since 1999 – the last time Scotland really came close to winning there.

Scotland head coach Vern Cotter has made five changes to the team that will face England in the Six Nations on Saturday.

Edinburgh No 8 David Denton comes in for James Beattie, having recovered from a calf strain, to make his debut in this year’s tournament. He is joined by club team-mates Dougie Fife and Matt Scott – who come in for the injured Sean Lamont and Alex Dunbar, respectively – as well as Finn Russell, who comes in for Peter Horne following the completion of his two-week suspension, and Jim Hamilton, who replaces Tim Swinson.

Denton after a bright international start has become a bit one-dimensional but at least offers strong ball carrying and a brave heart to keep Scottish hopes up of an upset.  The loss of Dunbar is a big blow but offset by the return of Finn Russell who showed maturity against France and was combatively and inventive at times against Wales.

Tight head prop Euan Murray, meanwhile, will equal Allan Jacobsen's all-time appearance record for a Scotland prop when he collects his 65th cap.

He will partner Alasdair Dickinson and fit-again Ross Ford, who has recovered from the back spasm suffered against Italy to start in an experienced front-row.
Jonny Gray remains in the second-row to pack down with Hamilton, while Blair Cowan and Rob Harley start together for the sixth consecutive time in the back-row, alongside Denton.

Captain Greig Laidlaw will again partner the returning Russell from scrum-half, with the back-line completed by Glasgow Warriors trio Mark Bennett, Tommy Seymour

England have won their last five games against Scotland, and have not lost against them at Twickenham for 32 years. They will expect another home victory but will also be looking to rack up the points as their only realistic hope of overhauling Ireland for the title will be via points difference if the unbeaten Irish lose one of their remaining two games.

I don’t see Scotland completing mission impossible at Twickenham. England will not play as badly again as they did in Dublin and although Scotland will have flashes of brilliance, it is hard to see England winning by a comfortable margin which could easily exceed 20 points.

I expect the English line out and rolling maul to be working effectively and the ball to be moved through the backs. Three tries for England, as a minimum is what is required to maintain the momentum halted in Ireland and Robshaw and his army will deliver. England win at a cantor.

England 30 Scotland 10

Italy v France

So to Sunday’s game and another exciting encounter that on paper is hard to call. Italy will be confident of another big scalp when they welcome France to Rome in the March sunshine.

France continue to disappoint massively and were well beaten against Wales in Paris. Coach Philippe Saint-André was very critical of his players after they lost to Wales especially lamenting the lack of choice at his disposal for goal kickers but his selection choices have partially caused the issues.

Les Bleus have lost their last two games, against Ireland and Wales, and will have to bounce back strongly against the Italians. Recent history is not on their side and France has been beaten on their last two trips to Italy and will not be relishing facing an Italian team oozing confidence and passion in the Stadio Olympico.

Saint-Andre has made eight changes to the team who lost against Wales after the squad was hit by a series of injuries, with scrum-half Morgan Parra, centres Remi Lamerat and Wesley Fofana as well as wing Sofiane Guitoune being ruled out. He has reverted to his favoured halfback pairing of Sebastien Tillous-Borde and Camille Lopez when he named them on Thursday in a reshuffled team to face Italy in the Six Nations on Sunday.
             
Scrum-half Tillous-Borde and out-half Lopez started all three November Tests, but the Toulon player missed the first two Six Nations games through injury before starting on the bench for the match against Wales. Fullback Brice Dulin has been replaced by the recalled Scott Spedding while wing Noa Nakaitaci, centre Maxime Mermoz and number eight Loann Goujon have all been handed their first start with Les Bleus.
             
Mermoz recall will set up a new partnership with Gael Fickou and this means there is again no starting place for the giant Mathieu Basteraud. Saint-Andre also keeps faith with the bulk of his pack although Nicholas Mas is also recalled at Tight head Prop.

The French team looks as strong as it could be given the full Top 14 programme last weekend and the injuries picked up by many of his squad. It will depend upon the leadership from veteran Thierry Dusautoir in his 74th game for France to lift his team up for the daunting challenge in Rome.

As for Italy, coach Jacques Brunel must be absolutely delighted with the way his team fought back against Italy and the sheer determination and grit shown by his players led by the peerless Sergio Parisse.  The win will have silenced the many voices in the British media who have suggested that the Azzurri were not doing enough to show they deserve a place in the tournament after 26-3 and 47-17 defeats to Ireland and England respectively in their first two matches this season.
Italy will be looking to build on that victory but the French will be a very different kettle of fish and the Azzuri must cut out the silly mistakes such as the poor pass by fly half Kelly Haimona that gave Scotland centre Mark Bennett such an easy try early on in the Edinburgh encounter.

Parisse was outstanding against Scotland but I feel obliged to also mention the contribution of man of the match Luke McLean. McLean has been much maligned and written off as a journeyman but he looked dangerous with the ball and kicked intelligently with the ball in hand. He also offers a goal kicking option.

Again the lack of goal kicker could hold Italy back and they must be looking at a change at outside half.  Kelly Haimona has been desperately disappointing and really hasn’t inspired or driven the Italian team forward.

With coach Brunel not naming his side until 1pm on Friday due to a lengthening injury list and therefore I don’t have time to report on his final line up. What I do know is that both captain Parisse that the wing Sarto have been training this week and look to have shaken off the minor injuries sustained in the last match.
We are likely to see back row changes with Favaro looking unlikely to recover the knee sprain suffered against Scotland and Minto, also looking for as late fitness check. Tomasso Allan has also been resting from training as a result of a sprained ankle but should be passed fit to play, while centre Giulio Bisegni is another still struggling for fitness with a knee sprain and he will also undergo further tests on Thursday and Friday training.
Martin Castrogiovanni, who missed Italy's Six Nations win over Scotland at the weekend after being bitten on the nose by a friend's dog, has been dropped for the matches against France and Wales. The prop needed 14 stitches after the incident, but was not been named in head coach Jacques Brunel's 30-man squad on Tuesday, and nor does he figure among the players listed as excluded through injury.

Back Andrea Masi has been recalled after missing the Scotland game, while lock Quintin Geldenhuys also returns as he looks to make his first appearance in the championship following a knee injury.

Expect another tight forward driven game between the two sides and a high penalty count. France can’t lose again can they? I am excited by Mermoz and Fickou and with options off the bench; France will prove too strong on this occasion and will save Saint-Andre with a narrow victory.

Italy 13 France 23