Six Nations 2015 Round 5 – The Chase is on!

Final round of the 2015 Six nations and we have a three-way chase to the title. Pre-tournament favourites Ireland hit a major roadblock last weekend in Cardiff and now join Wales and England on 3 wins out of 4 with points difference the likely deciding factor on where the championship silverware will end up. 

Your correspondent is having another solid year of predictions with a 75% success rate going into the final weekend –not quite at the dizzy heights of last season but with a solid last weekend an 80% success rate is within grasp!

Round 4 saw some great battles. Wales went and demonstrated that defences are critical in our modern game with a truly bone crunching defensive display against Ireland. Scotland showed some strong heart against a mistake-ridden disorganised England and France finally showed what they are made of with a comprehensive defeat of Italy in Rome. 

Will the final weekend live up to the heights of Round 4? Who will win the title? All will be revealed in my final preview of the tournament.

Italy v Wales

Awesome! That is the only way to describe Wales’ outstanding defensive display against Ireland. A new record of 250 tackles and the ability of the Welsh defence to withstand wave after wave of Irish attacking play was breathtaking and punishing at the same time. It was not the prettiest match but it was rugby at its rawest – brutal, uncompromising and gripping.

Wales are peaking at the right time.  After their lamentable second half against England, they have slowly got their tournament back on track. A solid grinding performance against Scotland followed by growing confidence and more match control against France and Ireland.  The final win over Ireland has given Wales an outside chance to still win the title and their final match is against a damaged and shell-shocked Italy. A comprehensive victory over Italy, though, would turn up the heat on their title rivals, with Ireland tackling Scotland at Murrayfield next Saturday, followed by England hosting France at Twickenham.

I have been watching Rugby for a long time but I have never seen defensive play on that scale before. Quiet honestly, it was hard to choose a man of the match. Captain Sam Warburton was a nuisance all game to Ireland – doing what opens side flankers do in slowing down and disrupting the play. Luke Charteris and Alun Wyn-Jones had huge matches. The transformation of the beanpole Charteris into a world-class second row has been very pleasing. His time in the Top 14 in France at Perpignan and Racing Metro has definitely made a man out of him and his performance in defence with 31 tackles was also matched by his massively disruptive qualities in the Irish line out. 

That victory over Ireland was not without its cost – injuries to Samson Lee and Gethin Jenkins mean Warren Gatland has had to shuffle his pack and make a small number of changes. Scarlets forward Rob Evans and Ospreys tight head Aaron Jarvis are their respective replacements, while there are call-ups on the bench for hooker Ken Owens, props Rhys Gill and Scott Andrews and scrumhalf Gareth Davies, with Mike Phillips missing out.

It will be Rob Evans' full Wales debut after he went on as a replacement for Jenkins at half-time last Saturday, with Jarvis continuing instead of Lee, who was carried off inside the opening 15 minutes against Ireland. This is worrying area for Wales against the proven Italian front row and pack. Wales do not have a huge depth of front row forwards to add to the team but Gatland has done well to strengthen his bench while continuing to give game time to his next generation of forwards.

Ken Owens returns after a length absence and lines up among the substitutes instead of Gloucester hooker Richard Hibbard, who had been following return-to-play protocols after taking a blow to his head during the Ireland game. Cardiff born Saracens forward Rhys Gill, meanwhile, gains a match-day place after only joining the squad for training on Monday, while Gareth Davies - a livewire operator and consistent try-scorer for the Scarlets - gets his chance instead of the hugely experienced Phillips. Again sensible planning by Gatland to bring Davies on in terms of game experience in the cauldron of the Six Nations prior to the World Cup.

As for Italy, they must be absolutely shell-shocked and disheartened by their poor display against France. To get shut out at home in Stadio Olimpico was extremely poor and such a disappointment after their victory in Murrayfield in Round 3.  That situation went from bad to worse this week with news that inspirational captain Sergio Parisse has been ruled out of Saturday's clash against Wales.

In a hammer-blow for the Azzurri, number eight Parisse has not recovered from a foot injury suffered during last weekend's 29-0 home loss to France.
Samuela Vunisa, who moves from open side flanker, will replace him in the back row, with veteran Mauro Bergamasco handed the number seven shirt.

Leicester hooker Leonardo Ghiraldini will take over the captaincy reins from Parisse as Italy look to thwart Wales' Six Nations title bid. Other changes made by head coach Jacques Brunel from the France clash see starts for Zebre fly-half Kelly Haimona, who has recovered from an injury that ruled him out of the France encounter, and long-serving prop Martin Castrogiovanni.

And there is also a chance in the front row for Ghiraldini's Leicester colleague Michele Rizzo, who replaces the injured Matias Aguero with highly experienced forwards Quintin Geldenhuys and Robert Barbieri, meanwhile, are on the bench.

Wales need tries and lots of them. That has been their biggest challenge this season. Rome has not been a happy hunting ground for the Welsh but fortune favours the brave and one has to feel Wales have just too much quality to drop the ball at this stage. Halfpenny has been sublime with his kicking and the Welsh three-quarters are due a big game.  

Italy’s best chance is to disrupt the Welsh scrummage and try to get their rolling maul moving. Their goal kicking has been pretty awful – so Italy must be focusing on accepting defeat and trying to keep their head held high.

Expect Wales to push hard from the start and achieve a comfortable win but will it be enough of a points difference?

Italy 7 Wales 33

Scotland v Ireland

Ireland’s defeat in Cardiff has been chastening. Their press has been very negative about the Welsh performance and that is a lack of respect. Ireland were one dimensional and unable to break through the Welsh defence. It is the number of opportunities that were squandered that dominated the post-match discussion. Sexton was definitely off the pace and the Irish forwards suffered from white line fever at critical times when cooler heads may have passed the ball wide.

Ireland suffered as the more they looked to get back into the game the more their runners became one-off and the team did not move the point of contact. Much as the Welsh were heroic, Ireland made it easier for them than anyone could have expected. The picture of Tommy Bowe and Jared Payne waving their hands in the air looking for the ball and a walk-in try summed up Ireland's plight. To be fair it may be hard to watch for the players, but it will also be comforting and the lessons learnt will actually make Ireland better.

A time to change direction or simply a bad day at the office? I think it is the latter. Joe Schmidt is an intelligent coach and he will have taken the time to ensure Ireland come to terms with their "straight-up" lesson in failing to convert pressure into tries.  Schmidt will also look at his side over-playing when they were chasing the game, but that is down to the key decision-makers taking control at the right time; also the turnover penalty on Cian Healy from Warburton gave Wales a seven-point buffer, when Ireland should have been putting the pressure back on Wales as they became tense.

Ireland will be determined to win their second championship title in a row. They go into this decisive weekend level with England and Wales on six points and know they must win in Edinburgh to have any chance of clinching glory.

Schmidt makes just two changes to his Ireland side to face Scotland. Luke Fitzgerald comes into the side at the expense of Simon Zebo on the left wing. The Munster man drops out of the match-day 23 entirely.

Zebo was poor against Wales after a strong showing against England and his loss of form comes at a bad time for him. Leinster man Fitzgerald's inclusion is his first for Ireland since the clash with New Zealand at Aviva Stadium in 2013, when he entered the fray as a centre replacement for Brian O'Driscoll after 53 minutes of action.

There have been calls for his inclusion from many sectors in Ireland following his fine displays for Leinster this season and Ireland will be hoping that he will add a creativity and unpredictability to the Ireland backline. He'll win his 28th cap on Saturday. 

Cian Healy replaces Jack McGrath at loose-head prop for his first start of the championship, with McGrath taking Healy's place on the bench as loose-head replacement. McGrath held the position for the first four rounds of the tournament, with Healy operating off the bench in Ireland's clashes with France, England and Wales. McGrath can count himself unlucky not to be running out at Murrayfield, but 27-year-old Healy looks to have proved he is restored to full match fitness

I am surprised to see Rory Best retain his place. His performance in Cardiff was nothing short of abysmal for an international hooker- line out throwing accuracy of a scud missile and anonymous in the loose. He will win his 83rd cap against Scotland and Sean Cronin must be wondering just what he has to do to gain a test start.

For Scotland, they are facing into the abyss of yet another wooden spoon. There were encouraging signs in eth first half against England but like Wales in Cardiff, they faded badly against the white machine in the second half. It was only England’s own mistakes and mismanagement that saved Scotland from yet another hammering. 

There is no question that Scotland have played with a lot of spirit this season with their ability to score tries being the one saving grace.  The Scots are desperate to end their campaign on a high in a tournament, which reads, played 4 lost 4 so far.

Coach Vern Cotter has made two changes to his side ahead of Saturday's final RBS 6 Nations clash with Ireland at Murrayfield. Back-row forward Adam Ashe is promoted from the bench to take Rob Harley's slot on the blind-side, while prop Ryan Grant also moves up from the replacements to take Alasdair Dickinson's role in the front-row.

Cotter's two alterations apart, Scotland remain a fairly settled line-up and the New Zealand-born head coach goes with the same back division which impressed for spells during last week's brave display in the 25-13 defeat to England at Twickenham.

Skipper Greig Laidlaw will partner stand-off Finn Russell in the half-back positions as they start in front of Glasgow Warriors trio Mark Bennett, Stuart Hogg and Tommy Seymour, and Edinburgh duo Dougie Fife and Matt Scott.
In the pack, tight-head Euan Murray makes history, alongside Ross Ford and Grant, overtaking Allan Jacobsen's record as the most capped Scotland prop with a 66th appearance.

Jonny Gray and Jim Hamilton will again start in the boiler house, with David Denton and Blair Cowan returning to the back row. The only other change is among the match-day substitutes as Tim Visser replaces Johnnie Beattie.

Ireland must start as huge favourites and they will be looking to recover quickly from their defeat in Cardiff. They will be keen to not to repeat the mistakes of 2007 when Ireland chased a points-difference boosting final try rather than punt the ball out for full-time in Italy eight years ago, only to concede what proved to be a crucial converted score.

Roland de Marigny plundered the last-gasp score for the Azzurri, with Ireland winning out 54-21: France then hammered Scotland 46-19 to swipe the title on points-difference - by just a four-point margin. 

Scotland have their last chance to salvage something and they will fight to the last to cause an upset like in 2013 when triumphed 12-8 over Ireland at Murrayfield. Expect the scots to move the ball through their backs and use Stuart Hogg as a tactical kicking weapon relying on Laidlaw’s goal kicking to keep them in touch. 

Its stick your neck out time and I have to make a big call. Much as my heart would love to see Scotland triumph, Ireland just have too much quality and one defeat does not a bad team make. Ireland win but not by a big score.

Scotland 16 Ireland 22

England v France

England has largely failed to kick on from their opening victory over Wales. An unimpressive home performance over Italy where they made it far too hard to win against a feisty Azzurri was followed by the defeat in Dublin and then last week’s error strewn victory over Scotland. 

Are England trying too hard? Have they found their level? Or are expectations just too high?

Answers on a postcard please.  England management have been putting a brave face on it but the facts are England have won 3 games, silenced the Millennium Stadium fever, and have done the job they had to do, At times England have looked very impressive at times whilst at others hurried and ill prepared. 

England are at a crossroads. As it stands – England is probably the only Northern Hemisphere team who has the ability, draw, and home advantage to win this year’s world cup. They have a stable side and can improve.  The injury crisis they faced hat the start of the tournament has not been mentioned since the first round and really shouldn’t. Stuart Lancaster has been tinkering with his side through the rounds; handling injuries and bringing players back as required. 

The reality is they have to start winning the key matches and titles. The loss in Dublin hurt them and this weekend’s showdown with Les Bleus is really a huge challenge for them. They really need to prevail and take the Six Nations title. Should they fail (again), then the self doubts will continue to nag at both the team and support and that could be the main thing that could derail their World cup challenge.

Stuart Lancaster makes one change to his starting line up. England have promoted Geoff Parling to the second row and recalled Nick Easter to the bench for Saturday's decisive RBS 6 Nations clash with France at Twickenham. Parling will replace the failing Dave Attwood, who has been massively disappointing after his solid performance against Wales.  Attwood’s form has really dropped off to the level where he has been dropped from the 23 altogether. Instead, head coach Stuart Lancaster has looked to Easter to provide lock cover among the replacements as England aim to clinch a first Championship since 2011.

Lancaster keeps faith with his team with Dan Cole winning his 50th cap at prop and the impressive Jack Nowell also retaining his wing slot. Nowell and George Ford were the stand out players against Scotland and Lancaster will also be pleased with the return to form of Billy Vunipola who had one of his best outings in an England shirt. 

As for France, at last a sign of positive progress for Les Blues. It finally looked like they knew what was their best side. France were impressive against Italy shutting them out to no score in Rome.  Philippe Saint-Andre finally seemed to get his selections right. Fickou and Mermoz were impressive in the centres – more like the old France, Scott Spedding handled and controlled well from full back and the French pack showed solid scrunmmaging, line out and mauls.  Much better all round and I was delighted to finally see some Gallic flare and spirit to wake up the tournament. 

Philippe Saint-Andre has made two to his starting line-up for Saturday's RBS 6 Nations showdown against England, with Jules Plisson and Vincent Debaty set to start. Stade Francais fly-half Plisson comes in for the injured Camille Lopez, who sustained a badly bruised knee during Sunday's 29-0 triumph over Italy, while loose head prop Eddy Ben Arous has also been ruled out for the match at Twickenham as Debaty makes a start after impressive shifts off the bench.
Plisson, who impressed as he came off the bench and scored 10 points in his 40-minute appearance against Italy, broke his nose at the Stadio Olimpico but has been passed fit to take on leaders England. Plisson has been very impressive for Stade in the top 14 this season and is virtually unrecognisable from the player that lost his place in the France team last year. 

The other change with Debaty coming into the starting line up is the recall of Uini Atonio as replacement prop amongst the replacements.

This really is a tough game to call. France have a poor record at Twickenham with it being 10 years since their last victory at HQ way back in 2005. They are however coming to this match with confidence and form. England need to win and need to win well to quell the doubters. 

England will be wary of France’s scrum but the recall of Parling and his reunion with Lawes will settle England’s platform and with secure ball, England should be able to unleash their talented backs and with quick ball they could have France in trouble. 

The critical player for England is probably George Ford. He was impressive against Scotland – probably England’s best player. He needs a solid game and needs to use his obvious talent and vision to steer England to victory.

I think England are too good to lose at home and France will give away a lot of penalties which will enable the Rose to keep the scoreboard ticking over. England win and are champions with +43 points difference.

England 19 France 13

Final Standings

	P	W	L	Pts Diff	POINTS
England	5	4	1	+43	8
Ireland	5	4	1	+39	8
Wales	5	4	1	+38	8
France	5	2	3	+16	4
Italy	5	1	4	-105	2
Scotland	5	0	5	-31	0