SIX NATIONS ROUND 3 - LASTING THE PACE

Halfway point in the 2015 Six Nations and its been an interesting ride. One or two things coming to the forefront. Player concussion is starting to become a real issue – Mike Brown following George North and Samson Lee in missing matches due to a longer than expected recovery time. The second controversy is around the choke tackle – something Ireland have seriously perfected as a key part of their game. Shaun Edwards taking a particular stand against it and asking for a ban on it in his press conference this week.

It’s an emotive point and I have to agree that it’s not adding anything to attacking rugby. There are clearly some issues in refereeing interpretations, which certainly need reviewing and I would suggest some minor law tinkering will likely happen before the Autumn World Cup.

Round two’s results were pretty much as expected. One of the clear observations from this year’s competition is the gap between the teams is extremely narrow. On any given day – anyone could beat anyone; with even Italy showing some great resolve against England. This makes the work of the rugby pundit harder than ever and Round three sees some exciting match-ups, which are very close and difficult to call.  

SCOTLAND v ITALY

Mt predication that Scotland would be a much stronger proposition this season has come to fruition with the Highlanders scoring the only try in Paris and losing by 5 points to Wales. However, it’s played two and lost two and this weekend’s encounter against the Azzurri is a “must win” for coach Vern Cotter.

Scotland impressed in many areas against Wales and must be frustrated with not getting a win behind them. They attacked for long periods against Wales and but ill discipline and a bad dose of “white line fever” meant they once again flattered to deceive.

Finn Russell was lucky to escape a red card in the match but didn’t escape the citing committee. Russell this week lost his appeal against a two-match ban for a dangerous tackle on Wales' Dan Biggar - leaving Dark Blues head coach Vern Cotter with a dilemma over his replacement. Scotland will also be without the talismanic Richie Gray.

Glasgow's Peter Horne has been given the nod to replace suspended stand-off Finn Russell for Scotland's RBS 6 Nations clash with Italy on Saturday. 

The Kiwi had to decide between the inform duo of Horne and Edinburgh's Greig Tonks, but it is the Warriors fly-half who has been told he will collect his seventh cap when the Azzurri visit Murrayfield.

Horne's inclusion is one of four changes to the side beaten 26-23 by Wales two weeks ago. Glasgow's Tommy Seymour takes Tim Visser's place on the wing while Scotstoun teammate Tim Swinson comes in for injured lock Richie Gray.

Prop Euan Murray, who missed the Wales clash for religious reasons, reclaims his place as Geoff Cross drops out, while Tonks is left to take consolation from being named amongst the substitutes.

Scotland will hope to bounce back from successive defeats to France and then Warren Gatland's men as they host the Italians in Edinburgh - a match already looking like the Wooden Spoon decider.

Cotter has also made four changes to the replacements, with props Ryan Grant and Cross replacing Gordon Reid (knee) and Jon Welsh (hand), who were injured against Wales.

Promising young Edinburgh duo Ben Toolis and Hamish Watson are poised to make their senior international debuts having taken the places of injured lock Jim Hamilton (groin) and back-row Alasdair Strokosch on the bench.

Replacement scrum-half Sam Hidalgo-Clyne has also completed his return to play protocols to retain his place in the squad, having shown signs of delayed concussion after the match against Wales.

For Italy, it was a much stronger showing against England. Remarkably, the Italians have scored a try on every visit tom Twickenham – a remarkable achievement for the perennial under-achievers.  Dog lover Martin Castrogiovani will comically be absent form the clash – the result of fourteen stitches in a facial dog bite. 

Sergio Parisse was back to his brilliant best against England and once again looks the form No.8 in the Northern Hemisphere. The Azzurri have won seven and lost 15 of their 22 meetings with Scotland, their last triumph against the Scots was in Rome three years ago. Italy has won just once at Murrayfield, a 37-17 triumph in 2007.

Italy coach Jacques Brunel has included two uncapped players as part of six changes to his starting XV to face Scotland in Saturday's match at Murrayfield.

Benetton Treviso centre Enrico Bacchin and Zebre winger Michele Visentin will earn their first caps. Bacchin is to step in for Andrea Masi, who is injured. Zebre's Dario Chistolini will replace Martin Castrogiovanni.

Zebre prop Matias Aguero will replace Alberto De Marchi, who drops to the bench. Aguero also started in the Azzurri's opening defeat to Ireland in Rome.

Joshua Furno is to come on in place of veteran lock Marco Bortolami, who is side-lined with a muscular injury while Benetton Treviso flanker Simone Favaro returns to play for the Azzurri for the first time since the Autumn test against Argentina in November.
Favaro takes over from veteran Mauro Bergamasco, who has been dropped.

Its hard to see history repeating itself in Edinburgh and one has to feel Scotland with home advantage will have just enough to make it home to victory. Euan Murray will be a welcome return at prop, as Italy will seek to test highland resolve in the set piece. Alex Dunbar has been a silent revelation at centre and Seymour offers more penetration from wing than the more one-dimensional Visser. 

The game’s outcome will again dependent on who gets the first try and who converts the most penalties. Italy will have watched Wales win the aerial battle against the Scots and expect full back Luke McLean and Outside Half Haimona to be peppering Scotland with high balls and hoping for a Scottish error.

I expect the Scottish scrum to be under pressure and a lot will depend on just how Peter Horne handles the pressure. I think Scotland have enough quality to grind out the win but don’t expect it to be pretty to watch. Closer than expected.

Scotland 26 Italy 19

FRANCE v WALES

Wales have won the last three Six Nations encounters between the countries and prevented France from scoring a try each time.  This meeting in Paris will be an interesting one with neither team firing on all cylinders so far this campaign.

As predicted, France ran Ireland fairly close and indeed could have almost got the draw in Dublin. The French however, do not seem to know what is their best team and they appeared to settle for running Ireland close rather than winning the game. Philippe Saint Andre clearly doesn’t seem to know what he is doing and the lack of ambition against Ireland was a truly bizarre approach to game management in my view.

Both France and Wales are struggling for consistency and results. Since the 2011 World Cup, France have posted a win ratio of just 40% whilst Wales have 50% during the same period. The French ratio is an extremely low return for a country, which has 14 top-flight teams to pick from, and an abundance of talent at their coach’s disposal.

They certainly looked like a better side once they made use of their bench in the second half. Rory Kockott was disappointing in Dublin. His distribution was slow and he never looked like controlling the game. He is out of the squad with a thigh injury, as well as wing Teddy Thomas, out with an ankle problem after two below-par performances, along with second row Pascal Papé who will miss the rest of this year's Six Nations serving a ten week ban for kneeing Ireland's Jamie Heaslip in a ruck last Saturday. 

Camille Lopez is still really finding his feet and France looked a much stronger proposition with Morgan Parra directing affairs from the scrums and breakdowns. Parra is another injury doubt and Saint Andre has called up Toulon scrum half Sebastien Tillous-Borde to boost France in their stuttering RBS 6 Nations campaign. The Toulon player is back from a knee injury after missing Les Bleus's first two outings and he paired up with fly-half Camille Lopez for last November's three test matches and the association proved solid throughout.

Wesley Fofana still looks horribly lost at centre and the spirit of the great French masters of the midfield such as the sublime Phillipe Sella must be cringing at the tactic of bulk and bash from Mathieu Basteraud. 

In the pack, France dealt a scrumming lesson to Ireland again with Mike Ross certainly relieved to not be facing that again this season. Certainly Dubaty, Keyser, and Atonio added an extra dimension to France’s forward power and if they started the match maybe France would have seen a different result? Hard to call. Rumours of poor fitness abound.

One of the more interesting things to watch for this weekend will be the blitz defence battle. Both France and Wales are masters of this art form and France in particular caused Ireland all sorts of issues withy their speed off the line. 

At least Saint Andre has rung the changes for the visit of Wales with Basteraud dropping to the bench replaced by Remi Lamerat as one of five changes following the defeat in Dublin. Three other switches behind the scrum see starts for full-back Brice Dulin ahead of the stuttering Scott Spedding, wing Sofiane Guitoune for Teddy Thomas; and scrum-half Morgan Parra, for Rory Kockott.

The only change up-front is an enforced one, with Toulon lock Romain Taofifenua deputising for Pascal Papé

Wales returned to winning ways against Scotland in a tightly fought match. For me, Wales never looked like losing the game and seemed to always be able to step up a gear when required. Their ruthless game of putting Scotland to the sword during Finn Russell’s time in the sin bin perhaps the turning point of the match. Added to that their control of their kicking game – so different and controlled after the debacle against England – Wales were able to find the attacking edge and close out the win.

Coach Warren Gatland makes four changes to the team for France. George North returns to the starting line up with Liam Williams being retained in place of the stuttering Alex Cuthbert. Cuthbert has looked out of sorts and ideas all season whilst Williams was like a breath of fresh air and certainly gave Wales a more cutting edge.

Elsewhere – there are three changes in the forwards. In the front row, Gethin Jenkins retains his place after a much stronger showing against Scotland and is joined at prop by the returning Samson Lee while Scott Baldwin gets the nod at hooker in place of Richard Hibbard. Hibbard has only himself to blame, as he has been poor in both matches so far. His line out throwing has been suspect and Baldwin rightly gets the start. 

Jake Ball hasn’t impressed so far and Luke Charteris gets the 2nd row slot alongside Alun Wyn-Jones with no changes in the back row. Charteris who now ploughs his trade at Racing Metro in Paris; made an impressive cameo against Scotland and deserves the start. His ability to win line our ball and potentially disrupt the French line out give him a clear edge.

Many Welsh fans have been calling for Justin Tipuric to start ahead of Lydiate but I think Gatland has the selection right with the chop tacking specialist more likely to cause issues in the first 60 minutes than fellow Osprey Tipuric who remains a likely change off the bench. 

I can only see a tight game with strong defences, lots of penalties for both teams and only a single try. The Welsh scrum has been under severe pressure from the two games so far and that will only get worse in Paris. Any Welsh hopes must come form a solid line out platform and strong defence. Behind the pack, Wales do I believe; have the much stronger and more confident back line but will they stick to the usual “cementball” tactics or try and vary it with the flair we know the players have in abundance? The smart money is on more of the same from Wales and France will likely be up to the task of defending that in numbers. Whoever scores the try will win. 

Halfpenny has been up to his usual metronomic accuracy with the boot and Wales may shade it if France concedes too many penalties. This is almost becoming a “must win” for France and I think they will prove too strong for Wales on this occasion.

France 20 Wales 18

IRELAND V ENGLAND

The match of the round has an afternoon all to itself on Sunday in Dublin. This is probably the match which will decide the 2015 championship and Ireland will be desperate to avoid another home defeat to the Rose. The last big Dublin encounter in 2013 was a dour affair with England triumphing 12-6 with just four penalty goals. The game in 2015 will also be close and it is England who one feels have the greater pressure. 

Ireland will rightly be starting as favourites to record another home win. They have not been convincing in either of their matches so far. A hard worked grind in Rome was followed by a home win with no tries against the French. 

At the time of writing, the full Irish line up has not been revealed but I do not expect coach Joe Schmidt to make many changes. He is almost certain to stick with the tried and trusted team line up for tis crucial clash. 

His squad has come through wins over Italy and France in the opening two rounds largely unscathed and that allows Schmidt the luxury of being able to pick his side consistently.

The one major absentee is of course Jamie Heaslip, who broke three vertebrae against France, and is ruled out of action until the Wales game in round four at the earliest. Jordi Murphy will step into the breach and he is more than capable of causing England some serious problems.

The front row promises an intriguing battle. Joe Marler has been one of the most improved players at loose head and he will have watched Mike Ross seriously struggle against France.

Behind the scrum, Ireland has the sublime Sexton against George Ford. Advantage Ireland. The threequarters are well matched with Jonathan Joseph looking like the form centre and a real surprise in the tournament. The loss of Mike Brown to (yet) another concussion is a big blow to England although he hasn’t shown the form of last season. 

Stuart Lancaster will have been concerned by his team’s failure to really kick on from their win over Wales. They labored against Italy. Despite never being in doubt of winning, they never really raised their game to the meet the expectations of the fans and media and the end result was basically “job done” rather than a leap forward in progress towards the World cup.

Lancaster makes just two changes to the team, which started against Italy. Andy Goode comes in at Full back for Mike Brown, and Exeter’s Jack Nowell comes in on the wing for Gloucester’s Jonny May. Nowell was widely tipped for a return after some string performances recently for Exeter. Goode is a solid choice but I would have been more inclined to move Watson to Full back and bring in another winger. 

The only other change is Bath's Henry Thomas comes in for Kieran Brookes on the bench who has failed to recover form a hip injury.  

The pack stays as is then with Dylan Hartley getting the nod over Tom Youngs while Tom Croft, Mako Vunipola, and the evergreen Nick Easter add grunt off the bench as required.


The forward battle will be critical to success and I think both teams will try and tough it out but also try and play running rugby. 

Psychologically England has the edge with recent wins but Ireland will feel they have to lay down a marker here and they need a big performance this campaign.

I think England are going to get caught out by the best out half in Europe. Sexton will attempt to pin England in their 22 and force them into errors. However England do pose a significant threat and I see several tries in the match but I think the Irish will out battle them to win by at least five points.


Ireland 23 England 17