Six Nations 2015 Round 2 – Steady as we go boys…

What a great first round last weekend. Your correspondent off to a less than stellar start with the very first match. England completely dominated and bossed a poor Welsh side although in my defence, I did call a close game and had the five points spread correct. 

In the other matches, Ireland predictably won in Rome but didn’t set the world on fire with an error strewn performance while France kept the scoreboard ticking over and shut out the Bravehearts despite not scoring a try.

Round 2 sees three more interesting encounters and as I write this blog from 5,351 miles from London – I can’t wait for the battles to recommence.

ENGLAND v ITALY

England came of age last week with a largely second-string side winning comfortably in Cardiff over an overblown, overconfident Wales. England really did dominate the second half and had total control over the scrum and mauls. The front row battle wasn’t close and England comprehensively out played Wales in the pack. Dave Attwood was a giant in the second row while James Haskell was the clear MVP and how they gave it to George Ford ahead of him was a travesty.

The English defence was unbreakable and to come back from 10-0 down in the first 9 minutes and win showed impressive steel and resolve.  Its not often that I eat large slices of humble pie but having been underwhelmed with their selection; Anthony Watson ad Jonathan Joseph both had outstanding games and showed real potential. Hats off to Mike Ford and his coaching team at Bath, they are building something special with the talent at their disposal.

While I have nothing but admiration for England’s win and the way they won it, lets not get too carried away they are still some way off being World Cup winners but demonstrating the positive momentum to get there. England supporters need to be realistic and have patience because even with the missing players there is still some way to develop and improve.  Despite their dominance, Wales still could have won the match with a late try. George Ford had two charge down kicks and wasn’t always calm and collected. You do that against the Saffers or All Chokes and it will be goodnight Vienna son.  Scrum half still doesn’t look to settled and there will be some tough decisions to make regarding back line selection.

So lets move on to this week’s match. Two years ago England had 50 minutes of dominance before an awkward last 30 minutes when Italy almost did the impossible and came close to a win at HQ. The team will be euphoric after last weeks game and its important that they do not go into this match over confident because Italy on their day can cause England some real issues in the pack. A strong scrummage and aggressive turnover game could cause England some issues if they are not 100% on their game.

Stuart Lancaster rightly names an unchanged team and in the winter sunshine at Twickenham they have the opportunity to start to build a dynasty on the road to the title.

For the Italians, it’s a different mood. They were disappointing against the Irish offering little in attack but resolute in defence. It was only their impressive defence, which stopped the game becoming a rout. The sin binning of hooker Leonardo Ghiraldini opened the floodgates and it hook Ireland 65 minutes to get the first try.

For the game at Twickenham, under pressure Coach Jacques Brunel makes four changes to his starting line up. Zebre captain Marco Bortolami has recovered from a muscular injury that saw him miss the 26-3 defeat in Rome and will start at prop to earn his 111th cap for Italy. Club teammate Mauro Bergamasco, also absent against the Irish, will earn his 101st cap this weekend when he starts as flanker, replacing the injured Alessandro Zanni.

In the backs, Giovanbattista Venditti will play left wing, prompting a back-line reshuffle. Luke McLean switches to his bets position at fullback, moving Andrea Masi to inside centre, and Luca Moriso to outside centre in place of the injured Michele Campagnaro.

Italy must start as enormous underdogs and it’s hard to see much success. The first 20 minutes will be critical for them. An early English score and a rout will ensue. Keep it tight and will the English have the heart? As Will Greenwood once said in a legendary summary “the fizzy lager on wet Wednesday night – have they avoided it?”.

I don’t see England making the same errors as 2013. England to dominate and an exciting attacking game form the Rose.

ENGLAND 43 ITALY 6

IRELAND v FRANCE

Ireland predictably won in Rome but it wasn’t the greatest show on display. The late withdrawal of Sean O’Brien may have caused a few last minute game plan changes but Ireland toiled for the first half and it was only when the man advantage came through that they stepped up to play with anything like their full potential.

Ireland used the kicking game to play in the right parts of the pitch so as not to give away easy points - thereby denying Italy energy.

When in the Italian half, Ireland held ball through multiple phases to make Italian players make as many as tackles as possible - finally Italy didn't have the energy to keep making those tackles and their defensive shape broke.

For Ireland and for Joe Schmidt it will be seen as a job well done and he will now just get everyone into camp and ready for the challenge of France. There are three key changes to the team for France. Jonny Sexton returns at outside half. Sexton has missed the last 12 weeks of action for his club having suffered four concussions in 2014, but slots straight back into the starting XV.

The return of open side flanker Sean O’Brien and No 8 Jamie Heaslip join him. O’Brien has recovered from a tweaked hamstring and Heaslip has shrugged off a shoulder problem.

For France, the win against Scotland had its moments. Camille Lopez was solid at outside half and crucially made his kicks. The two South African born players – Scott Spedding and Rory Kockott were both impressive and winger Teddy Thomas showed flashes of brilliance. The French would be happy to get the win, but that attitudes towards the game and the performance in France were far from positive.

Fofana had probably his worst game in a French shirt, and the whole French team looks far from settled. They seem to be picking on bulk and strength rather than coaching – it remains to be seen how they will manage against the superior fitness and speed of the Irish team.

France coach Philippe Saint-André has made one change to the starting XV that started against Scotland. Prop Eddy Ben Arous comes into the front row in place of the injured Alexandre Menini, while the experienced Vincent Debaty taking a place on the bench.

Ireland will win fairly comfortably. France looks like they would be happy to keep the score down and have a narrow defeat. That is a terrible way to start a game but unless they step up a number of gears – I don’t see they threatening Ireland too much.

Irish eyes will be smiling. A home win, continued momentum and an 11-point spread,

IRELAND 28 FRANCE 17

SCOTLAND v WALES

So to the weekend’s final game – Sunday’s showdown in Edinburgh.  There is a strong mood of optimism north of the border as Greig Laidlaw and his side will seek to avenge last year’s nightmare in Cardiff when a brief rush of blood led to Stuart Hogg’s red card and the game was over as a competition. 

Scotland can take heart form their performance in Paris last weekend. The fundamentals were strong and they scored the game’s only try. There were flashes of brilliance from Finn Russell and strong performances in the pack with Alasdair Strokosch making and excellent cameo off the bench.

Alex Dunbar, Tim Visser and Stuart Hogg all impressed in backs and will be dangerous again if Wales don’t step up and return to some sort of form for this weekend’s encounter.

The mood is positive in Vern Cotter’s camp and why not? Wales were lamentable against England and if Scotland are going to anything in this year’s tournament then it ahs to start this Sunday at Murrayfield.

As I write this blog, The Scottish team has not yet been finalized and there are some anxious looks in the camp as they battle a series of minor injuries from the battle in Paris. Winger Tommy Seymour sustained a hip injury and at this stage it is uncertain if he will be passed fit.  There are a number of other players who also required management and assessment by the medical team early in the week, they include: Mark Bennett (leg), Geoff Cross (leg), Alex Dunbar (neck/shoulder), Robert Harley (leg) and Alasdair Strokosch (leg).

One certain change is the absence of Euan Murray. Murray never plays on a Sunday and if Geoff Cross doesn’t recover in time, then Scotland may struggle to dominate the scrums in the same way as England and they will certainly be looking to reduce the penalty count. The threat of Leigh Halfpenny’s metronomic accuracy with the boot will be in the back of their minds and Cotter will have no doubt be stressing discipline in his squad drills this week.

If confidence is high in Scotland, t isn’t with the public in Wales. The hard-core Welsh support must be wondering whom they upset with a Friday night home game being followed by a Sunday afternoon encounter. There was massive criticism of the team’s performance against England and a strong call for multiple changes.

Warren Gatland didn’t heed it. He is either a genius or totally pig headed. The weaknesses shown against England were evident last season and the fixation with a single game plan built on bulk and power just isn’t working.

Just one change for Wales then with George North sitting this one out after his concussion against England. The welsh medical team came in for a lot of scrutiny this week for allowing North to continue playing after two clear head injuries. Liam Williams is recalled to the side in his place in the starting XV.

Wales really were poor. Not quite as bad as last year’s debacle in Dublin but they were comprehensively out thought and out defended by England. The one-dimensional aspect to their attack means there is no plan B. Wales are kicking possession away and not breaking the gain line.

I was surprised to see Gethin Jenkins retained ahead of Paul James. Jenkins has struggled with referee interpretations of the new scrum laws and he has lucky not to be yellow carded in the first half in Cardiff. Richard Hibbard was invisible in the loose and his skud missile like throwing action meant Wales never got an effective line out platform.

Samson Lee was another concussion victim, the Second row were weak and the back row with Faletau excepted; were also completely dominated and outplayed by England.

Wales won’t play as bad again. Last year they were simply awful against Ireland and bounced back to defeat France by a comprehensive margin.  This time the main difference is a narrow defeat at home (where Wales were flattered by the score line) and now a tough away trip.

The critical part will be the first half. Wales are notorious slow starters and I had this game marked as a shock defeat even if they had neaten England. The defeat at home will toughen Welsh resolve and I don’t think you will see as poor a performance this weekend.

Scotland need to start strongly.  If they get 10 points in front then it’s all over for Wales. On the other hand a Welsh lead at half time and I think they will step up a gear. Tough to call.

In the end, I will go against my pre-tournament call for a Scottish win and call Wales to bounce back and just about ease to a win. Defeat here and Wales World Cup is over before it begins. The players will know that and respond accordingly. Wales by 5 points.

SCOTLAND 21 WALES 26