Week 4 - Calm before the storm

This year's tournament has been very close with a fag paper between the four top sides. After disappointing prediction accuracy on the first two weeks, it was week 3 where your correspondant redeemed himself with 3 out of 3 correct results. There is still much to play for in this penultimate round of matches. Lets assess how I see it this week:

Scotland v Wales

After Scotland's lazarus style win last round in Murrayfield they will be high on confidence going into this match. It is ground breaking stuff seeing Scotland win back to back and now Wales are the latest team to face the Murrayfield caldron. With Arctic weather on the way - Scotland will feel confident mixing it with a Welsh team still finding its feet but also on for a hattrick of wins. Lets start by assessing Scotland's chances:

The return of Euan Murray will be welcomed against a strong Welsh front row who gave Italy a torrid time. You have to feel for Geoff Cross who was outstanding against Ireland who makes way. Scottish pack will fight for everything and will certainly disrupt a flaky welsh line out. Expect a confident fired up back row taking teh game to Wales under the strong leadership of Kelly Brown. With a dangerous looking bench - game will be won or lost in the pack.

Behind the scrum, Laidlaw will be deadly with the boot punishing any misdemeanors and Wales will certainly want to stop the Scottish wingers getting any quick ball in attcaking positions. Jackson makes way for Duncan Weir at Fly Half who is a steady and consistent performer - probably just what Scotland need. Coach Scott Johnson has already been widning up the Welsh and he will have done his homework briefing his side on exactly what to expect. 

As for Wales, a solid performance in putting Italy to the sword means the Men of Harlech will come north of the border in confident mood. Coach Howley has responded well to the early dissapointment against Ireland and has recalled Warburton and Wynn-Jones to bolster the Welsh pack. Sam Warburton certainly has a lot to prove and his selection is very controversial. Likewise, Andrew Coobes is very unlucky to be dropped after some impressive performances. Howley is playing a low risk game and has gone for experience over form with these selections. Jenkins return to form will be missed with injury but Paul James is a strong replacement - especially in the scrums and Wales should match Scotland in intensity up front.

In the backs - Wales have the edge assuming they can secure enough quality line out ball. We still haven't seen Jamie Roberts and Jonathan Davies in full flow whilst Cuthbert and George North ahve been had strong finishes in the last two matches. Scotland will eb wary of the Welsh backs and it will depend on Dan Biggar's ability to distribute the ball for Wales to score the tries their threequarters are clearly capable of inflicting on any team. Leigh Halfpenny has a lot to prove after several pundits gave their votes for Stuart Hogg as Lions fullback. 

Close intense game but unlike Ireland - Wales will front up stronger in the pack and will secure a narrow victory.

Scotland 19 Wales 21

Ireland v France

Ireland will be wondering just what went wrong after their winning start in Cardiff. At Murrayfield they threw away a winning lead and after being ground down by England - it will have severely dented Irish heart and pride. Their and their much vaunted pack came second to the angry Scots in the rough stuff. Tom Court and Mike Ross having a difficult time. The return of Healy will help bolster a creaking scrum and they need to show huge improvement to satisfy a sceptical Dublin crowd or coach Kidney could be heading to the exit door. 

Paddy Jackson had a stuttering nightmare start to his international carrer in Murrayfield and is lucky to start again this week. The lack of a credible alternative and the omission of Ronan O'Gara 

surely brings his international career to an end. If Ireland can get their line out functioning and retain enough possession then their threequarter line always looks dangerous. the Excellent McFaddern and Earls are big strong runners and they really take some stopping with the ball in hand. O'Driscoll is still working with Dorien Grey and never seems to age and a strong leadership role is required from him again this weekend

For France - a much better showing against England with Parra and Trinh-Duc at half backs. Wesley Fofana enjoyed more time and space to vary his runs at centre and Thomas Domingo caused Dan Cole some serious thought in the scrums and loose. But it all went to cock when Saint Andre reverted to Michalak and Machenaud and inexplicably reverted to the virtually the same team which had been so poor in the first two matches. England regained composure and punished the poor substituions fo the French supremo. 

Michalak is amazingly is recalled for this match. Just what is Saint Andre doing? Obviously watching a different game to the rest of us with tri-colour coloured glasses as Freddie has been shockingly bad and all French morale and progress evaporated the minute he stepped on the Twickenham turf. Other than that, the recall of Medard is welcomed and it will really depend upon the mercuriual Michalak to determine French fortunes.

I think he will misfire once more.  France will be heading into the final weekend staring in the the abyss of a wooden spoon finish. Unbelieveable but true. Ireland by 7 points.

Ireland 27 France 20

England v Italy

The white machine motors onto to take on the Azzuri on Sunday at HQ. I have been impressed with the team spirit of the England camp and Lancaster continues to be the Coach of the Tournament rarely putting a foot wrong so far with his selections and tactical awareness. 

There is clear power and dynamism in all areas of this England temam and it is hard to pick holes but Graham Rowntree will be concerned with a misfiring line out and disappointing scrummage - both usually key England strengths. The Rose are badly missing Alex Corbiesero and Marler has been an erratic replacement despite a strong showing against Ireland. So in come Mako Vunipola for his first England start as Lancaster wields the axe with five changes.  Vunipola is a strong if static prop but has undoubted scrummaging skills which is exactly what is required against Italy. Wood, Haskell and Robshaw are re-united in England's strongest back row. The sad experiment of using Courtney Laws was badly exposed against France and I don't see him returning to that role anytime soon.

England's problem area seems to be Hooker and that is something of a surprise. Lancaster seems unsure of who is his best selection  Tom Youngs has been disappointing with a scud missile accuracy on his line out throwing whilst Dylan Hartley hasn't exactly set the heart racing either.  Youngs gets the nod this week.  Toby Flood steps in for the injured Farrell with Danny Care given the nod at scrum half. Care has been mercurial during his England career but I think he is the more exciting player over Ben Youngs and he deserves his chance. Brad Barritt continues his tackling machine efforts at inside centre and Lancaster must have been tempted to give Twelvetrees another outing but stayed with the same pairing who did a lot of damage against France with Manu Tuilagi having some strong runs in an impressive performance.   

As for Italy, they will be delighted to welcome back Parisse who was so badly missed against Wales. They have a terrible record against England at HQ and I don't see them competing for a full 80 minutes this time either. Their scrum was rattled and disrupted by Wales. Martin Castrogiovani came off a poor second to Gethin Jenkins last match and will again have a tough time with the England front row whom he knows so well from his Aviva premiership day job. I am please to see Luciano Orquera  recalled at outside half in place of the stuttering Kris Burton, and McLean, Masi and Canale have all impressed me this season. 

Italy's only chance will be to get an early score and pressure England at the set pieces especially the line out. I don't see them getting enough quick quality ball to bother the English defence and another cricket score defeat looks likely with England running riots with five or six tries. 

England 52 Italy 9