Final Thoughts - Six Nations 2013

The Tournament ended with Wales confounding all the critics to record back to back championship titles. Few would have seen that outcome after the torrid first 50 minutes of the Wales v Ireland opener which shows the unpredictability of this tournament and why we love it so much. After a slow start, your humble correspondent ended up with 10 correct predictions out of 15 - matching last year's 67% accuracy rate. Let's look back some of the highlights of the competition and some final thoughts and considerations as we await the British Lions this summer.

Never Write Off The Welsh!

I have to admit I am one of those who really didn't see Wales recovering after a dismal Autumn. They were simply caught asleep against Ireland and looked dishevelled and lacking even basic confidence. They came alive in the 2nd half of that match and simply drove on from that point becoming stronger with every game. The final match in Cardiff had the most amazing atmosphere - probably the best I've ever experienced. A tight first half was followed by the clinical demolition of England. Clearly the finest half of Welsh rugby for 40 years.  When you look at the stats - they were devastating in defence. No tries conceded in 4 matches is a massive endorsement of their defensive prowess. Currently the meanest in World rugby.

Wales were simply breathtaking in that last match. They dominated in every facet of the game and in Warburton and Tipuric they undoubtedly have forwards of huge talent. The return of Roberts to some form and the fast improvement of Cuthbert give Wales an awesome attacking edge too. Perhaps not the dashing flair of old but a new tough edged resilience  Leigh Halfpenny put in several fantastic performances and his work under the high ball was textbook perfect. He proves again that small men can still be influential in modern  game of giant threequarters and his kicking was (mostly) of metronomic accuracy.

We have been before and the onus is on the Welsh squad to kick on and become able to take their place at rugby's top table. Beating England must become an expected outcome not the only outcome in the mind of their fans and players. They after all just another team. What must follow now are regular wins over Southern Hemisphere sides. Can they learn and progress?  Wales will probably learn most from this summer's Lions tour with Welsh players undoubtedly forming the bulk of the lions squad.The next 12 months will be crucial.

As for the coaches, I was one who was heavily critical of their approach and preparation in the Autumn and for the opening game against Ireland. Robert Howley had to face a barrage of personal criticism and rose above it in triumph  Shaun Edwards is another who can hold his head up high after the bitter disappointment of missing out on the Lions tour. Deserved well done to all!

Bridemaids

As for England - they too will learn hard lessons from the game in Cardiff. England seemed to get worse through the Tournament - it was strange seeing a team winning matches but not scoring tries. After good wins over Scotland and Ireland  England had a wobble against France, that horror show against Italy was followed by a nightmare in Cardiff. What went wrong?

It is hard to find the answers. It isn't the coaching. Stuart Lancaster is a master tactician and he has a really strong back room with Catt, Rowntree and Farrell. If anything - I think England are probably over coached. they seem to lack the individual skills and brilliance of other sides.

Martin Johnson was a great believer in the 'game plan" and followed in a long tradition of England coaches who put perhaps too much thought into the game at the cost of not developing in individual skills and game awareness.   As several people said to me on Saturday - there was perhaps only one player on Saturday's performance who would have got in the Welsh side.  Compare the stuttering Chris Ashton against either North or Cuthbert. Youngs against Philips. Barritt against Roberts and you see what they mean. Twelvetrees is probably the only England threequarter who has sign of arrogant talent and guess what - he hasn't been picked. England choosing the boring Barritt ahead of him probably because he fits better into the "plan". Jack Rowell was the first of the modern coaches who lost the dressing room because they could not understand their coach. He was too intellectual. I think England are perhaps trying too hard.

Several players have had a marked drop in form. Parling and Launchbury were scarily good against New Zealand but badly dropped off the pace. Dan Cole has gone backwards and England have struggled for a solid front row platform. They have a young squad and they have the time to develop and grow into a great team but not yet. If they focus on their strengths, develop just a few raw talents World Cup 2015 looks a long way off but England will aim to peak and could have the last laugh picking up the Webb Ellis in 2 years. You read it here first....

Celtic Fringe

Scotland can take heart from a  campaign with two victories but little champagne sparkle. They put in a dogged shift against the Auld Enemy, blew away Italy, ground down Ireland and caused a few concerns against both Wales and France. In Hogg, Maitland and Visser - they have a back three of real quality but are let down by the Fly Half/Centre options available. They simply don't have the talent in the backs to compete at the highest level. Add a determined pack and a great goalkicker (Laidlaw) and Scotland can frighten anyone especially when they are written off. Kelly Brown has led with great effectiveness and heart and Scott Johnson has carried on where Robinson left off in developing a winning mindset and wins at home are certainly solid progress. Next season maintain some stability and away victories will be critical for them to progress.  A work in progress.

For Ireland - this looks like the end of an era. I think they felt they were on for another Grand Slam after effectively killing Wales for 50 minutes. They simply went backwards. Injuries showed that they don't have any real strength in depth. How can they get 3 teams to the Heineken Cup quarter finals when Wales had none and yet have such a bare cupboard bereft of real prospects? Healy and Ross were second best to most front rows. Heaslip and O'Brien should have been certainties on the plane for the Lions with Heaslip a likely test starter. But not after the tournament when both players will be lucky to make the squad - such is their fall from grace. They never dominated any team through their pack and look like a nation in decline. The fiasco of their coaching set up where Declan Kidney blundered this way through with no new contract on offer was bizarre and clearly unsettling for Irish morale.

With O'Driscoll likely to retire, he will be quickly followed by O'Connell , O'Gara, and D'Arcy. All big men to replace! Ireland always take too long to bring players through but it is even more noticeable that all Irish provinces have increased the numbers of foreign imports - such is their addiction to European success at club level. It will be a tough 24 months as an Ireland supporter. They need a new coach and challenge fast.

Viva Italia!

For me, the Six Nations finally became a tournament of Six Nations. Italy finally arrived. They now have two competitive club sides gaining more experience weekly in Rabo Direct and Heineken Cup. They have a great coach who is making a real difference and getting the Italians to believe they can compete and win.

They have now beaten every nation except England and they came mighty close to the upset to end all upsets at Twickenham. No longer just a forward dominated team either. Parisse and Zanni have been causing problems for a while - Parisse - the outright World best at No.8. Add two workman like players at half backs and unleash some great backs like McLean and Italy have truly arrived. Next season will be tougher with just two home fixtures but neither England or Scotland will relish the Stadio Olympico journey and Italy could even surprise away next season. Viva Italia - welcome to the top table.

Allez les Losers...

If Italy have arrived then what of France? They were simply shockingly bad. Selections simply beggared belief and several players looked uninterested and uncertain of what they were doing. France had a weak defence last season and it simply went from bad to worse. They made changes for England but just when they were competitive they made criminal substitutions bringing on inferior players and losing the plot totally.

I hope to never see Freddie Michalak on an international rugby field again. France have only one Outside Half - Trinh-Duc; and he is not World class. France have a fantastic domestic rugby competition but rather like English Football's Premier league - it is at the expense of developing their own players.  Only 4 of the 14 clubs have a french qualified outside half and there has been a increasing import of Georgian props, Welsh and English internationals, and Southern Hemisphere mercenaries. One has to fear for the future pour Les Bleus!

British Lions Test XV & Squad

With a short while until the Lions squad is chosen, I have picked my side based on current Six Nations form. It doesn't make pretty reading for English, Irish and Scots rugby fans:

15 - Leigh Halfpenny (Wales) - saw off challenge from Hogg and Goode who will also make the 37 man squad

14 - Alex Cuthbert (Wales) - not a certain choice especially at the Start of the tournament but a fantastic performance against England secures his place.

13 - Brian O'Driscoll (Ireland) - Australia will be fast, hard pitches and it will be a fitting end for one the World's all time greats.

12 - Jamie Roberts (Wales) - formed a terrific understanding with BoD last Lions and gets his place with a late flurry in last two matches

11 - George North (Wales) - under pressure from Zebo and Visser - just gets the nod

10 - Owen Farrell (England) - the best talent at 10. Biggar and Sexton also making the squad.

9 - Mike Philips (Wales) - not my type of scrum half but likely to be Gatland's. Conor Murray and Greg Laidlaw his back ups. No English Scrum half making the squad.

1 - Gethin Jenkins (Wales) - back at his brilliant best against Italy and England. Cian Healy and Ryan Grant the understudies.

2 - Rory Best (Ireland) - The most accurate line out thrower and a certain starter. Hibbard his understudy

3- Adam Jones (Wales) - the world's best tight head scrummager. Dan Cole his understudy

4 - Geoff Parling (England) - still the Guv'nor despite a weak tournament finish.

5 - Ian Evans (Wales) - phenomenal tacking and ball carrying. Richie Grey, Alun Wyn Jones and Donnecha Ryan the other Second Rows

6 - Chris Robshaw (England) - the Lions will need leaders on the field. Will be toughing it out with the Welsh flankers to make the starting line up. Tom Wood also making the trip

7 - Justin Tipuric (Wales)  - not the biggest but the fastest with fabulous passing skills

8 - Sam Warburton (Wales) - CAPTAIN - Sam has come through a tough time but will be selected as Lions Captain and will switch to No.8 to accomodate Tipuric. Faletau will be pushing him too

Squad: - these 15 plus:
11 Backs - Hogg (Scotland), Goode (England), Visser, Maitland (both Scotland), Zebo (Ireland),  Tuigali, (England), Davies,  Biggar (both Wales), Sexton , Murray (both Ireland) Laidlaw (Scotland)

11 Forwards - Healy, Ross (both Ireland), Grant (Scotland), Cole (England), Hibbard (Wales), Hartley (England), Wyn Jones (Wales), Grey (Scotland), Ryan (Ireland), Wood (England), Faletau (Wales)

15 Welsh
8 English
8 Irish
6 Scots

Rugby Raconteur will be back for Lions tour...See you soon!